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MT5009 Hi-Tech Opportunities
Autonomous Vehicles
Tay Hong Chuan Liang Hong Yao Lin Lin Ho Kum Wah Huub van Esbroeck
Contents 1. Introduction to Autonomous Vehicles
2. Essential Technologies
1. GPS 2. Lidar 3. Radar 4. Video 5. Ultrasound
3. The Future: Driverless Fleets Vehicle-to-vehicle interaction 4. System Integration CPU and Broadband Requirements 5. Entrepreneurial Opportunities
evaluation of cost and performance parameters
Introduction
What are Autonomous Vehicles?
Self-driving cars with sensors able to observe and understand surroundings
Google driveless car estimated cost USD$150,000 (Year 2012)
Introduction
Ref: http://www.carloan4u.co.uk/infographics/the-ultimate-car-of-the-future/
Benefits of Autonomous Car
Ref: http://www.carloan4u.co.uk/infographics/the-ultimate-car-of-the-future/ Google, US NHTSA, AAA, Texas A&M Transportation Institute, Columbia University Earth Institute and Devil’s Advocate Group’s analysis
Google’s Aspiration
Potential Annual Benefits (US only)
90% reduction in ACCIDENTS
4.95 million fewer accidents 30,000 fewer deaths 2 million fewer injuries $400 billion saving in cost
90% reduction WASTED COMMUTING
4.8 billion fewer commuting hours 1.9 billion gallons in fuel savings $101 billion saved in lost productivity and fuel cost
90% reduction in CARS
Reduce cost per trip-mile by 80%+ Car utilization from 5-10% to 75%+ Better land use.
Google Car Oxford Robot Car
Ionut Budisteanu
Mobil Eye C2-270
MuCAR-3
Drive-assist system cost
USD 130,000 USD 7,500 USD 4,000 USD 749 N.A.
Level of Autonomy
High Medium Medium Low High
Key Components
GPS, 3D Lidar Computation software
2D Lidar, Prior knowledge
Low-end 3D Lidar, Webcam supervisor program
Mono camera, System-on-chip
Multifocal camera, 360º Lidar
Ref: http://www.driverless-future.com/?p=400 Ref: http://www.mobileye.com/blog/press-room/products-press-room/mobileye-announces-new-c2-series-solution-and-previews-new-technologies/
Autonomous Systems Comparison
Technology: GPS GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
How GPS Works
Space segment - composed of GPS
satellites that transmit time & position
in the form of radio signals to the user
Control segment - composed of all the
ground-based facilities that are used to
monitor and control the satellites
User segment - consists of the users & GPS receivers
Technology: GPS GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
Acc
ura
cy
Ref: http://www.gps.gov
Accuracy
Technology: GPS GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
Ref: Federal Aviation Administration
FAA data collected in early 2011 shows that the horizontal accuracy of GPS SPS is often within ~ 1 meter
Ref
eren
ce: G
PS
in A
ero
spac
e
Reference: GPS in Aerospace By hypothesis, the car accuracy in 2020 may be within < 50cm Using Nationalwide Differential
GPS System ~ 10 to 15cm
Technology: GPS GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
GPS Cost Benefits
GP
S C
ost
Ben
efit
s GPS Accuracy
Fuel consumption
Accident rate
Insurance premium
Conditions Maintain same fuel price General road conditions
Factors
Time
Enable potential
cost saving over time
Cost
Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
• Non-contact technology – Sense the physical appearance,
speed and distance of objects through laser.
– Software transforms the data into 3D representation of objects in real time
• Mobile Mapping System – GPS: geo-referencing, motion
sensor optional – Laser: range finding, property
evaluation – Software: post-processing, map
construction.
Lidar is uniquely suited to , surveys
• 1-1000m distance • Mm to cm accuracy
Ref: Audi's sensors include radar, lidar, camera, and adaptive cruise-control (source: Audi)
Technology: Lidar
Acc
ura
cy
GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
Ref: Stanford’s car – Junior. http://www.photonics.com/Article.aspx?AID=44539
Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
Component Cost: Laser
Ref: Global Markets for Laser Systems, Components & Materials -- Focus on the Americas published by BCC Research on January 1, 2012
Ref: http://www.toptica.com/products/ultrafast_fiber_lasers/technology.html
Ref: http://www.industrial-lasers.com/articles/print/volume-27/issue-1/features/2011-annual-economic-review-and-forecast.html
Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
Component Cost: Inertial Sensor
Ref: Technology Trends for Inertial MEMS, market & technology report – Jan 2012
Ref: IC Insights - “Market Analysis and Forecast for Optoelectronics, Sensors/Actuators, and Discretes”, May 2013
Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
Ref: CURRENT AND FUTURE HIGH VOLUME "KILLER" AUTOMOTIVE APPLICATIONS OF MICROSYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY (MST) By Roger H. Grace, President, Roger Grace Associates
Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
Basis Software Surphaser
FARO Photon DI3D/DI4D Kreon Zephyr Mantis Vision’s F5
Image
Price Range ($)
90k-150k 90k-120k 20k-140k 60k-75k 45k-60k
Accuracy/Range
0.2mm/adjustable
6.35mm/Long 0.5mm 0.02mm 0.5mm/0-1m
Key Features
360x270; 800k pt/sec; Ideal for large objects;
Large-vol scan; 3mm error @10m
Camera; Full-color; 21 Mega pixel/imag
Digitizer; High-precision
Handheld; high res.; Motion-sensitive.
Ref: http://www.dirdim.com/prod_laserscanners.htm
Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
Ref: http://www.lidarnews.com/content/view/8877/206/ Ref: http://www.faro.com/products/3d-surveying/laser-scanner-faro-focus-3d/features#main Ref: http://www.primesense.com/developers/get-your-sensor/ Ref: http://mashable.com/2013/01/03/worlds-smallest-3d-motion-sensor/
PrimeSense 3D Sensor
• Cost: $200
• World’s Smallest 3D sensor
• Range: 0.35 – 3.5 m
• Accuracy: a few centimeters
• Color, audio, USB support
• Employed by Kinect for gaming, by MIT for robot.
FARO Focus 3D Laser Scanner
• Cost: $30,000 to $40,000
• 976,000 pt/sec
• Range: 0.6 -330m
• Accuracy ± 2mm
• Height sensor, Compass, dual axis compensator
• GPS synchronization
Technology: Lidar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
Velodyne Lidar: HDL-32E • Cost: $29,900 (half of HDL-64E)
• 32 laser – scanner pairs; 7000 pt/sec
• Compact size – more applications
• Range: 1-100m; accuracy < 2cm
• Distance – Reflectivity – Angle
• Internal MEMS – Motion sensing
• GPS synchronization
Ibeo – Valeo Joint Project • Lidar Cost: $250, by 2014
• Accuracy < 1.5”, at 200 yd
• In any weather
Technology: Radar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
we
igh
t (g
ram
s)
Radar Sensor Weight (grams)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
An
gle
(d
egr
ee
s)
Radar Sensor Opening Angle (degrees)
Ref: Bosch Press Release: http://www.bosch-presse.de/presseforum/details.htm?txtID=6242&locale=en
opening angle
Technology Improvements
Technology: Radar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
Larger Bandwidth Is required for better
1. Range accuracy 2. Contour determination
“79GHz Project” to allocate a broad band for automotive Short Range Radar applications
Ref: Bandwidth Requirements for Future Safety and Comfort Applications, Markus Andres, Universität Ulm
Technology: Radar GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
Ref: European Commission D16.1 – Report on interference density increase by market penetration forecast
60%
Humans need two eyes to see the world in binocular vision, which enables us to calculate the object sizes, distances and perceive longitudinal motion. In recent years (2011 to 2013), stereo video camera system has been created and adopted by many leading car manufacturers, to give driver assistance systems the same capacity: a 3-dimentional view of the area in front of a vehicle
Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound
Stereo Camera System
Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound
Mercedes-Benz S-Class Luxury Sedan – Launched in 2013
One of the most important development is the introduction on Stereo Camera Technology
Highlights of the Stereo Camara in S-Class: - Price: $2,800 for option package of stereo cameras and radar; - Opening Angle: 45°; - 3D view of the road ahead: 50m; - Total Range: 500m; - Autonomous emergency braking with pedestrian detection: up to 72km/h; - Data usage: 300gb per Hour - Distance / Height measurement Accuracy: 3 millimeters within 15m
Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound
CMOS Image Sensor Market Demand
1. Reduction in Scale - Camera Size & Pixel Size
•
Ref: http://image-sensors-world.blogspot.sg/2011/11/st-published-its-tsv-camera-module.html Ref: http://image-sensors-world.blogspot.sg/2012/04/aptina-global-shutter-whitepaper.html
Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound
Lower Material Cost
Higher Resolution
Economic Feasibility & Performance
2. Increase in Scale – CMOS Wafer Size
•
Ref: http://image-sensors-world.blogspot.sg/2011/11/st-published-its-tsv-camera-module.html
Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound
Lower Cost in general
3.Reduction in Price – Cost Per Mpixel
•
Ref: http://www.future-fab.com/documents.asp?d_ID=4926
Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound
Cost for Mpix drops at rate of ~ 25% annually
Next-generation back-illuminated CMOS image sensor – Stacked Structure - Compact Chip Size - Larger logic circuit scale: 500k gates to 2400k gates - Possible to optimize manufacturing process separately for pixel and circuit section
Back-illuminated CMOS image sensor, which significantly enhanced imaging characteristics: - twofold sensitivity - low noise.
Ref: http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/News/Press/200806/08-069E/ Ref: http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/News/Press/201201/12-009E/
Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound
Improvement
There is a possibility of replacing short & Medium-range rader / laser sensors with stereo / mono camera system.
Ref: http://eecatalog.com/fpga/2013/02/07/driver-assistance-systems-with-the-power-of-fpgas/ Ref: http://www.aptina.com/solutions/automotive.jsp
Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound
Future Aspect
Driving becomes more difficult after sunset. Not only is visibility generally reduced, but an even more serious challenge on unlighted roads are the headlamps of approaching vehicles, which can dazzle a driver’s eyes. Currently, there are in general two designs for night vision system: Passive and Active
Night Vision System
Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound
Feature Audi A8L BMW 750i Mercedes Benz CL55o
System Type Thermal Image Sensor (Passive) Illuminator + Image
Sensor (Active)
Price for NVS $2300 $2600 $3490
Affected by Fog NO NO YES
Daylight Visibility YES NO
Objects can be viewed
Only warm objects, people and animal
All, including lane marks, road signs, reflective road
markings, rocks, fallen trees, etc
Pedestrian Detection
500 ft 300 ft 300 ft
Ref: http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/gadgets/automotive/in-dash-night-vision-system.htm Ref: http://www.photonics.com/Article.aspx?AID=23154 Ref: http://www.onemotoring.com.sg/publish/content/onemotoring/en/motoring_buzz/motoring_accessories/bmw_night_vision.print.html
Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound
Currently, Night Vision Systems (NVS) are only found out in a handful luxury cars: e.g. Audi, BMW and Mercede Benz:
Ref: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1350449510001040
Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound
For the last 25 years, number of IR image sensor pixel has been increasing at an exponential rate, doubling every 19 months, which is in-line with Moore’s law growth path:
Ref: http://image-sensors-world.blogspot.sg/2013/09/yole-reviews-uncooled-ir-imaging-market.html Ref: http://www.sensorsmag.com/sensors-mag/sharply-lower-costs-uncooled-ir-sensors-may-spur-growth-7260
Technology: Camera GPS Lidar Radar Camera Ultrasound
Price for uncooled thermal camera is expected to drop
by as much as 60% in the
next 5 year (2013 to 2018)
Technology: Ultrasound GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
Radar and ultrasonic sensor (Courtesy Analog Devices)
Variable gain amplifier used in ultrasonic sensor (USD12 each) (Courtesy Analog Devices)
Ultrasonic sensors are used to assist the driver in autonomous vehicle.
Technology: Ultrasound GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
Cost Down: Advances in Integrated Circuit packaging potentially can drive down ultrasonics component prices.
Embedded Ultrasonic sensors using “Chip in Polymer” technology
Estimated to reduce cost by 30% (courtesy of Fraunhofer Institute IZM)
Embedded ultrasonic sensors for Automotive.
0
100
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300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Parktronic option price on Mercedes E-class
Price
Technology: Ultrasound GPS Lidar Radar Video Ultrasound
(Courtesy of Motortrend)
Possible cost down of 5% this year due to advances in circuit packaging
Assumptions: Possible cost down of 5% from 2015 onwards due process improvements.
Driverless Fleets The Future: Vehicle-to-Vehicle/ Infrastructure Interactions
Vehicle to Vehicle (V2V) communication
(Courtesy of autoevolution)
Communication protocol is based on IEEE 802.11p
V2V and V2I-I2V Communications (Courtesy of Embedded System Technology)
Vehicle to Infrastructure (V2I) communication
Ref: http://www.autoevolution.com/news/gm-begins-testing-of-vehicle-to-vehicle-communication-in-ann-arbor-48560.html Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IEEE_802.11p Ref:http://www.uwicore.umh.es/files/paper/2012_international/uwicore_IEEE_Communications_802.11p%20vehicle%20to%20infrastructure%20communications%20in%20urban%20environments.pdf
(Courtesy of wiki/IEEE_802.11)
Data transmission improvement from Year 1999 to Year 2012
1
10
100
1000
10000
802.11a (Yr1999) 802.11b(Yr1999) 802.11g(Yr2003) 802.11n(Yr2009) 802.11ac(Yr2012) 802.11ad(Yr2014)
Mb
it/s
(lo
g sc
ale)
(802.11 Network standard)
per data stream (Mbit/s)
Driverless Fleets The Future: Vehicle-to-Vehicle/ Infrastructure Interactions
Ref: http://www.ruhr-uni-bochum.de/integriertesysteme/emuco/files/hipeac_trends_future.pdf
Logarithmic increase in data transmission speed.
Systems Integration (II) Future Substitution / Elimination of Technologies
Systems Integration (III) Sensor data --- Central Processing Unit
Google car monitoring traffic (Courtesy of CNN)
What autonomous car see making a left turn (Courtesy of Robotics Business Review)
750MB of sensor data is collected per second (Courtesy of Robotics Business Review)
CPU in Google Driverless car (Courtesy of Robotics Business Review)
Ref: http://www.roboticsbusinessreview.com/article/google_car_data_hog_at_speeds_topping_2700gb_per_hour
Systems Integration (IV) Improvements microprocessor speed with time
Improvement made in 1. Transistor count 2. Clock speed (MHz) 3. Power consumption 4. Perf/Clock (ILP) (Instruction-level parallelism)
Our estimate for the number of microprocessor used in Google Car is at least three 2 GHz processor in parallel to handle the 750 MB of sensor data per second.
Ref: http://www.gotw.ca/publications/concurrency-ddj.htm Ref: http://www.extremetech.com/computing/116561-the-death-of-cpu-scaling-from-one-core-to-many-and-why-were-still-stuck
Cost Down Estimates
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cost $130,000 $91,000 $63,700 $44,590 $31,213 $21,849 $15,294 $10,706
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
USD
Component Cost Down ~ 30% Annually
Gasoline car USD $20,000
Google car USD $150,000
- USD $20,000
= USD $130,000
Year 2020 USD $10,706 + 20,000 = USD $30,706
Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Group/Player Autonomous vehicle/system/project
Stanford & Udacity, United States Google Driverless Car
GM-Carnegie Mellon Autonomous Driving Collaborative Research Lab Boss car
University of Berlin, Germany Madein Germany vehicle
Technical University of Braunschweig, Germany Stadpilot
Universität der Bundeswehr, Munich, Germany MuCAR-3
VisLab, University of Parma, Italy BRAiVE prototype
Oxford Mobile Robotics Group, UK Wildcat
INRIA IMARA, Paris, France Cybercar, cybercars2, LaRA project
Induct Mobility Solutions, France Navia shuttle, CityMobil2 project
Griffth University, Intelligent Control Systems Lab, Australia Cooperative driverless vehicles
Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute (ETRI), Korea ETRI Smart Transport RObot
Autonomous Solutions, Inc (ASI), USA Vehicle Automation Kit
Singapore-MIT-Alliance for Research and Technology, Singapore Future Urban Mobility
On
goin
g P
roje
cts
/ M
od
els
Entrepreneurial Opportunities Autonomous Vehicle
Manufacturers
Increased demand for AV: • Size, shape, function
customizable • Open to all users: e.g. the blind,
the handicapped, elderly, children • AV servicing industry.
Components Manufacturers
Increased demand for components: • GPS, Radar, Camera, Lidar,
ultrasonic sensor etc. • Computer hardware: e.g. high
performance ICs, storage, LCD, wireless comm, Audio etc.
Ref: KPMG
Entrepreneurial Opportunities Software Developers
Info-Management Companies Government
Social Services
• AV can be used in Car Rental, Car Sharing, Auto-Taxi schemes. Reduce operation cost and
ownership cost by 80% • New insurance packages for AV. • Free up lands for various purposes
• Artificial Intelligence model and software act as brain of AV
• “Big Data” generated in V2V, V2I has enormous analysis values
• Real time traffic monitoring data can be sold to AV comm-network.
Ref: KPMG
Entrepreneurial Opportunies Autononmous Car – Interior Design Companies
Change of Doors Opening Concept Reverse Seating Arrangement Rest and Relax TV Entertainment Voice Control Enabled Working on the Move PSP Entertainment Spacious Space Windows with Internet Surfing
Incentatives for Autonomous Car
Dedicated lanes for Autonomous cars
Initial phase
Tax break for autonomous car buyers
City state like Singapore implement all autonomous cars only. (Productivity gain and no more traffic jam)
Road Map for Autonomous Car
2012
• Google Driverless car project tests a fleet of self-driving vehicles, including six Toyota Priuses, an Auti TT, and three Lexus RX450h’s
2014 - 2015
• Mercedes, Cardillac, BMW, Auti, and Nissan models include autonomous steering, braking, acceleration, parking, lane guidance, accident avoidance and driver fatigue detection
2018
• Google’s fleet of fully autonomous Toyota Prius hybrids will be released
2020
• Volvo, GM, Audi, Nissan and BMW have fully autonomous cars
2020 onwards
• Disrupt the conventional car industry!!!
Ref: http://www.carloan4u.co.uk/infographics/the-ultimate-car-of-the-future/
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