The Labor Market Situation in August

September 8, 2014

Dr. Heidi Shierholz Chief Economist

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

1 1 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 1

Total nonfarm employment up 142,000 Private sector employment up 134,000

1-month change, in thousands

• August 2014 142

• July 2014 212

• June 2014 267

12-month change, in thousands

• August2013 to 2014: 2,482

• Average: 207

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces

2 2 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 2

Private sector employment up 134,000 Total nonfarm employment up 142,000

1-month change, in thousands

• August 2014 134

• July 2014 213

• June 2014 260

12-month change, in thousands

• August2013 to 2014: 2,438

• Average: 203

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces

3 3 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 3

Employment growth by super-sector this month

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.0%

0.0%

-0.1%

-0.1% -8

-3

0

1

2

2

7

7

8

8

15

20

37

47

-15.0 0.0 15.0 30.0 45.0 60.0

Retail Trade

Information

Manufacturing

Transportation and Warehousing

Utilities

Mining and Logging

Wholesale Trade

Financial Activities

Other Services

Government

Leisure and Hospitality

Construction

Education and Health Services*

Professional and Business Services*

Over-the-month employment change, August 2013, seasonally adjusted, in thousands

1-Month Net Change

Prior 12-month average

*denotes significance

Over-the-month employment change, August 2014, seasonally adjusted, in thousands

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics www.bls.gov/ces

4 4 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 4

Unemployment rate rounded down, Long-term unemployment ticked down,

Civilian unemployment rate, by duration of unemployment, January 1990 to August 2014, seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

4.4

1.9

6.8

4.2

10.0

6.1

5 5 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 5

Labor force participation ticked down essentially flat since August 2013

August 2014: 62.8 %

July 2014: 62.9 %

June 2014: 62.8 %

August 2013: 63.2 %

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, January 1990 to August 2014, seasonally adjusted

6 6 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 6

Employment rate unchanged, essentially flat since December 2013

August 2014: 76.8 %

July 2014: 76.6 %

June 2014: 76.7 %

August 2013: 75.9 %

Employment-to-population ratio, age 25 to 54 January 1990 to August 2014, seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

7 7 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 7

What’s going on with part-time employment?

Full and part-time employment, part time for economic and noneconomic reasons, Percent change since December 2007, seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

8 8 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 8

More jobseekers gave up looking than found work.

Labor Force Status Flows out of Unemployment, January 1990 to August 2014, seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

9 9 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 9

Long-term unemployed are increasingly more likely to leave the labor force than find employment

Unemployed 27 weeks or more Labor Force Status Flows, January 1990 to August 2014, percent of total, 12-month moving average

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

10 10 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 10

Dropping out of labor force only slightly more likely for long-term unemployed, compared to short-term unemployed

Unemployed to not in the labor force, by duration of unemployment, January 1990 to August 2014, percent of total, 12-month moving average

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey www.bls.gov/cps

11 11 Filename/RPS Number Office of Economic Policy 11

Hourly earnings have remained flat

Average hourly earnings, all private sector employees, January 2007 to August 2014, seasonally adjusted

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, www.bls.gov/ces

Dr. Heidi Shierholz Chief Economist

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR