Perspectives of a warmingworld from frozen places
David Harwood [email protected]. of Earth and Atmospheric SciencesANDRILL Science Management OfficeUniversity of Nebraska-Lincoln
Documents
Tree rings
Ice cores Sediments
Archives of Climate Change
Elements of ClimateChange System and Feedbacks
CRYOSPHERE
LITHOSPHEREBIOSPHERE
HYDROSPHERE
CO2
CH4
H2O
What will the future be?
What will help us predict this?
New York region in the past.
Has this happened before?
20,000 years ago
4 million years ago
Long Island
Numbers are 1,000 yearssince glacial retreat
Timing of the ice sheet retreat
Greenland & Antarctic ice core records
oxygen isotopeshydrogen isotopesdustmethanecarbon dioxide
annual layers of snowfall
Gas bubbles in the ice…
…trap the ancient atmosphere
ICE CORES drilled through the ice sheet
Vostok Ice Core
EPICA Ice Core
WAIS Ice Core
Ice Core CO2
280
230
180
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Vostok ice core, Antarctica
Ice Core temperature
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Vostok ice core, Antarctica
CO2 & temperature
280
230
180
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Vostok ice core, Antarctica 384TODAY
Present CO2 levels
Projected CO2 levelsdouble CO2 by 2100
Shape of the Earth’s orbit
Tilt of the Earth’s axis
Position of the Earth seasonally
100,000 year cycle
41,000 year cycle
19,000 & 21,000 year cycles
What controls the ‘heartbeat’ of climate change?
i c e
c o
r e
s
s e
d i m
e n
t c
o r
e s
Integration of geologicaldata with the testing power of numerical models in supercomputers.
A lot is learned from‘failed’ model runs….
… e.g. ice sheet sensitivity to climate forcing and feedbacks.
Deep Sea Drilling Project
1972
CO2 and temperature proxies
after Zachos et al., 2008
from Pagani et al., 2008
after Crowley and Kim, 1995
R. Levy ‘09
Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum
Onset of Antarctic glaciation
Millions of years ago
Long-term Cenozoic climate recorddecline in temperaturepunctuated warm and cold phases
Onset of Arctic glaciation
Note time scale change today
CO2 levels
IPCC AR4
ANDRILLFUTURE
TIMETARGET
Which of the Antarctic Ice Sheets were activeIn the past climate cycles?
Will they be active in a future warmer Earth?
Stratigraphic drilling for ice sheet history
from a proximal marine shelf setting
to reveal the pace and magnitude of change,
and to test climate sensitivity through
data and numerical modeling integration.
The Time Machine
Today
Antarctic ice ages 40 million year record of climate and ice volume variation. How often? How fast?
The past is a guide to the future…
4
Future? Distant future?
ANtarctic geological DRILLing
www.andrill.org
Goals:
Recover high-quality Antarctic rock and sediment cores;
Interpret paleoenvironmental changes;
Construct a Cenozoic history of the cryosphere;
photo C. Millan
www.andrill.org
Drilling systemMinerals industry rig
Diamond bit coring
Wireline core recovery
Three sizes of drill-string
98% core recovery
Source: Chicago Tribune
850 m water depth
1285 m sediment column
98% recovery
MIS Project
85 m ice thickness
Victoria Land Basin Transantarctic Mountains
W. AntEast Antarctica
MIS and SMS Project drillsites
McMurdo Sound region
MIS SMS CRP
CRP
Lucia Simion
a 9-meter core run
Lucia Simion
Angie Fox
Sediments deposited beneath the ice shelf
Angie Fox
Distal diatom-rich muds - - little to no ice is present
Antarctic diatoms - - one celled algaeengines of the Antarctic food chain
Angie Fox
Sediments beneath a grounded ice sheet
photo: R. Powell
6.48MaDiatomite
ANDRILL McMurdo Ice Shelf Project upper 600 mbsf0-100 m 100-200 m 200-300 m 300-400 m 400-500 m 500-600 m
40 glacial-interglacial cyclesin the last 5 million years
Data and Model Integration ANDRILL MIS
5-6 meters sea-level
rise
~ 60 meters sea-level
rise
If these ice sheets were to melt…sea-level would rise
Greenland Ice Sheet 5 to 6 meters more… IPCC AR5
any questions, please...
Where to Drill Next?
ANDRILL Coulman High ProjectFuture Drilling:
Effect of higher bedrock topography in Eocene (Wilson and Luyendyk 2009; WL09):
Ice models by D. Pollard
After Studinger & Barrett (2009)
More ice predicted at E-O
ISAES XI Edinburgh
Coulman High Drilling Targets
Key Science Drivers:1. Uncover the evolution and behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in a high CO2 world (> 600 ppmv)2. Constrain West Antarctic geography through time to improve ice sheet models
AND CH-2 AND CH-1
GREENHOUSE WORLD CO2 > 1000 ppmv
CO2 > 600 ppmv
> ~20 Ma
> ~30 Ma
WEST EASTWater depth 843 m Water depth 814 m
Palmer line 0301 1A0; Interpretation by Sorlien, Luyendyk, D. Wilson; UCSB
ANDRILL’s Education and Outreach Program
Louise HuffmanANDRILL Coordinator of Education and Outreach
www.andrill.org/[email protected]
2006Front row: Kate Pound, Julia Dooley, Robin Frisch-Gleason, Louise
Huffman
Back row: Joanna Hubbard, Rainer Lehmann, Bob Williams, Ken Mankoff, Graziano Scotto di Clemente
ARISE Teams (ANDRILL
Research Immersion for Science Educators)
2008
Shakira Brown-Petit
2007
Vanessa Miller, Matteo Cattadori, Julian Thomson,
Betty Trummel, Alexander Siegmund, LuAnn Dahlman
Teaching Essential Principle 5:Our understanding of the climate system is improved through observations, theoretical studies, and modeling.
How can I use this principle in my teaching?
• The most direct method to overcome students' misunderstanding or phobia of science is to immerse them directly in an interesting and tangible scientific question.
How Does Melting Ice Affect Sea Level
What if the Ice Shelves Melted?
Dead Diatoms Do Tell Tales
• Build model sediment cores with sand and glass beads to represent diatoms
• Examine types, numbers and conditions of the different beads
• Draw conclusions about the climates indicated by their evidence
Access to the tools scientists use
Antarctica’s Climate SecretsA resource package for teaching climate change
www.andrill.org/education
•5 Themes
•Resources to teach climate change: o 200+ page activity book o 5 posters o videos
•Learning through hands-on activities and models
•Kids become teachers/scientists: “Flexhibit” model (FLEXible exHIBITS)
Flexhibits—Students as Teachers
Posters available in many languages
Available Languages:
•Arabic (posters and activities)•French•German•Italian (book and videos, too)•Maori/New Zealand English•Spanish (poster activities)•and soon Russian
Environmental Literacy Framework (ELF) Materials
5 Units—Climate Change: A System of Systems
Systems or “spheres”:AtmosphereBiosphereGeosphereHydrosphere/
CryosphereEnergy– as the driver of
interactions within and between
the spheres