Click to edit Master title styleAdaption Tools for a Developed
Agricultural Economy
Judy Lawrence
Director, New Zealand Climate Change Office
Ministry for the Environment
Click to edit Master title styleAgriculture in New Zealand
• Pastoral agriculture is a major contributor to GDP (10% GDP including food processing and manufacture)
• 44% of NZs land area is in grazing pastoral agriculture
• Highly export-dependent country (64% of total NZ exports)
• Climate spans subtropical to cool temperate, and high rainfall to semi-arid
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Click to edit Master title styleAdaptation – Overview of Options• Enhancing beneficial effects of climate change:
Extension of growing season Wider range of products / market timing
• Managing gradual change: Adaptive breeding of cultivars On-going disease / biosecurity management Diversification; sustainable land-use strategies
• Managing extreme events: Droughts: water harvesting/storage; forecasting Floods: land-use planning; warning systems
Click to edit Master title styleAssessment Tools
Top-down assessments:• Future climate patterns – down-scaling of GCMs• Development of national impact assesment tools
(CLIMPACTS)• Climate extremes - drought and flood risk and mitigation
- Preliminary economic assessments• Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) Research• Regulatory approaches – local government planning
and strategies Bottom-up assessments:• Specific topic and regional studies• Cost of specific events – floods and droughts• Bottom-up studies at local scale involving farmers
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GCM Downscaling Impacts on NZ Agriculture
• New Zealand expected to warm less rapidly than global average due to oceanic influence
• Expected shift in rainfall patterns towards drier conditions in east, wetter in west
• Increased risk of extremes: flooding (most places) and drought risk (eastern regions)
• Biological effects of extension of growing season, change in species composition / disease / biosecurity, carbon fertilisation
• Reductions in cold hardening in some crops
Click to edit Master title styleCLIMPACTS - Impacts
Assessment Tool
Click to edit Master title styleImpacts assessment – example kiwifruit
1990 2100
Click to edit Master title styleClimate Extremes – Drought Risk Assessment
• Drought is an important cause of variation in NZ’s GDP. Economic studies show impacts.
• Work programmes aim to quantify likely changes in drought risk, severity and return frequency
• Adapting now has important co-benefits for future climate
• Coupled with Sustainable Development Plan of Action on Water: quality, quanity
Click to edit Master title styleFree Air Carbon Dioxide
Enrichment (FACE)Research
Click to edit Master title styleFACE Research
• Assessment now of impacts of future elevated carbon dioxide levels on biological systems
• IGBP Global FACE Network covers major ecosystems
• Provides insights into national and global adaptation strategies
Click to edit Master title styleRegional Climate Assessments
Farmers using information to manage for current climate variability
Examples:• GrowOTAGO climate /
soil mapping project• Kaipara / Far North
climate / soil / crop project
• Southern Climate & Pasture Outlook
Click to edit Master title styleEnabling Individual Farmers
• Top-down impacts/vulnerability assessments have received little attention from farmers
• Need to engage farmers at local scale with a “view from the ground” perspective
• Series of farmer interviews and workshops focusing on “sustainability” and positive options for managing risks covering: Diversification Water issues Good information at right level / timing
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Click to edit Master title styleAdaptation – Regulatory Responses• Are part of Sustainable Development strategies• Regulatory framework for adaptation:
Regional Councils develop regional policies and manage natural resources/hazards
Resource Management Act requires “particular regard to the effects of climate change”
Detailed guidance on how to consider effects has been developed for local government
Local Government Act - framework for Sustainable Development strategies and community-based long-term plans
Click to edit Master title styleConclusions
• Adaptation is very important for agricultural based economies whether developed or developing
• Positive and negative impacts expected in the short-term
• Some impacts well quantified, some are only qualitatively known or poorly understood
• Biggest negative impacts in medium term likely to arise from climate extremes (eg drought, floods, biosecurity. water management, biodiversity)
• Adaptive capacity in agriculture is generally high, but needs to be integrated into business decisions
• Sharing of tools will enhance progress for all countries