U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

census.gov

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services National Institutes of Health NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON AGING

65+ in the United States: 2010Special Studies

Current Population ReportsBy Loraine A. West, Samantha Cole, Daniel Goodkind, and Wan HeIssued June 2014P23-212

U.S. Census Bureau 65+ in the United States: 2010 3

Highlights

• In 2010, there were 40.3 mil-lion people aged 65 and older,12 times the number in 1900.

• The percentage of the popula-tion aged 65 and over amongthe total population increasedfrom 4.1 percent in 1900 to13.0 percent in 2010 and isprojected to reach 20.9 per-cent by 2050.

• From 2010 onwards, the olderdependency ratio is expectedto rise sharply as the BabyBoomers enter the olderages. In 2030, when all BabyBoomers will have alreadypassed age 65, the olderdependency ratio is expectedto be 37, which translates intofewer than three people ofworking age (20 to 64) to sup-port every older person.

• The older population hasbecome more racially andethnically diverse, with thoseidentifying their race as Whitealone comprising 84.8 percentin 2010, down from 86.9 per-cent in 2000.

• The United States is not theonly country experiencingpopulation aging. In 2010, 50countries had a higher propor-tion of people aged 65 andover than the United States,and by 2050, this number isprojected to reach 98, almosthalf the countries in the world.

• In 2010, Alzheimer’s diseasewas the fifth leading cause ofdeath among the older popula-tion, up from seventh positionin 2000. In contrast to declin-ing mortality from most othercauses of death, the death rate

for Alzheimer’s rose more than 50 percent from 1999 to 2007.

• Over 38 percent of those aged65 and over had one or moredisabilities in 2010, with themost common difficultiesbeing walking, climbing stairs,and doing errands alone.

• The share of the older popula-tion residing in skilled nursingfacilities declined from 4.5percent in 2000 to 3.1 percentin 2010. The share in otherlong-term care facilities, suchas assisted living, has beengrowing.

• Medicaid funds for long-termcare have been shifting awayfrom nursing homes with fund-ing for home- and community-based services increasing from13 percent of total funding in1990 to 43 percent in 2007.

• Labor force participationrates rose for both older menand older women in the firstdecade of the twenty-first cen-tury, reaching 22.1 percent forolder men and 13.8 percent forolder women. In contrast, thelabor force participation ratesfor the population aged 25 to34 fell from 2000 to 2010 forboth men and women.

• The older White alone popula-tion was less likely than theolder Black alone and Asianalone populations to live inpoverty. Older Hispanics weremore likely to live in povertythan older non-Hispanic Whitealone residents.

• Following the housing pricepeak in 2006, homeowner-ship rates declined for thepopulation under age 65

but remained flat for older householders.

• Housing costs were slightlyless of a burden in 2009compared with 2001 for olderhouseholders.

• While the 2010 unemploymentrates for people aged 55 andover were lower than for theiryounger counterparts, theolder group still experienceda doubling of unemploymentrates compared to just prior tothe 2007–2009 recession. Forexample, the unemploymentrate for the age group 65 to69 rose from 3.3 percent in2007 to 7.6 percent in 2010.Also, once unemployed, it tookworkers aged 55 and older lon-ger to find new employment.

• Many older workers managedto stay employed during therecession. In fact, the popula-tion aged 65 and over was theonly age group not to see adecline in their employmentshare from 2005 to 2010.In 2010, 16.2 percent of thepopulation aged 65 and overwere employed, up from 14.5percent in 2005.

• Eleven states had more than1 million people aged 65 andolder in 2010.

• States with the highest propor-tions of older people in theirpopulations in 2010 includedFlorida, West Virginia, Maine,and Pennsylvania (all above15 percent).

• The West and South regionsexperienced the fastest growthin their 65-plus and 85-pluspopulations between 2000 and2010.

6 65+ in the United States: 2010 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 1-1.Population Aged 65 and Over: 1900 to 2050(For information on confidentiality protection, nonsampling error, and definitions, see www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/doc/sf1.pdf)

Sources: 1900 to 1940, and 1960 to 1980, U.S. Bureau of the Census,1983; 1950, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1953; 1990, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1992; 2000, U.S. Census Bureau, 2001; 2010, U.S. Census Bureau, 2011; 2020 to 2050, U.S. Census Bureau, 2012a; 1900 to 2010, decennial census; 2020 to 2050, 2012 National Population Projections, Middle series.

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65+ population (left scale) 65+ as proportion of total population (right scale)

Millions Percent

Over the last century, the average annual growth rate of the older population has varied from decade to decade (Figure 1-2). The older population grew fastest from the 1920s to the 1950s, when the average annual growth rate was around 3 percent, more than dou-ble the overall population growth. After the 1960s, the growth of the older population slowed down, although it remained higher than the total population growth in all decades except 1990–2000, dur-ing which the proportion of older people actually fell (Table 1-1 and Figure 1-1). This anomaly was due partly to the decline in fertility during the Great Depression, which occurred in late 1929 through the

early 1930s. The cohort born dur-ing this baby bust era reached age 65 in the 1990s.3

The subsequent rise in fertility between 1946 and 1964 resulted in a large generation known as Baby Boomers. They started to reach age 65 in 2011, portend-ing rapid population aging over the next 20 years. Between 2010 and 2020, the older population is projected to grow more rapidly than in any other decade since 1900 (3.2 percent average annual growth), while the total popula-tion will grow about as slowly as in any other past decade since 1900

3 People turning age 65 between 1990 and 2000 were born between 1925 and 1935.

(0.8 percent), a difference of 2.4 percentage points. This difference will be among the largest in the past century.

Aging of the Oldest Old

Population aging has been remark-able in the oldest-old population, those aged 85 and over. For exam-ple, the proportion of people aged 65 to 74 (the youngest 10-year age group of the older population) grew from 2.9 percent of the total population in 1900 to 7.0 percent in 2010, and the proportion aged 75 to 84 grew from 1.0 percent in 1900 to 4.2 percent in 2010 (Table 1-1). In contrast, the proportion of people aged 85 and above reached

U.S. Census Bureau 65+ in the United States: 2010 7

1.8 percent in 2010, 9 times their share in 1900. Additionally, those aged 85 and over as a proportion of the 65-and-over population increased from under 4 percent from 1900 to 1940 to 13.6 percent in 2010. The older population itself has been aging since the 1940s. However, the proportion aged 85 and over of the older population is projected to decline between 2010 and 2020 and remain below the 2010 level in 2030 as Baby Boomers join the ranks of the 65 and older and swell the younger segments of the older population.

The population aged 90 and over has become an increasingly large

population group. The 90-and-over population has grown more rapidly than those aged 85 to 89 as well as other younger age groups within the older population. Data from 1980 to 2010 show that the num-ber of people aged 90 and older has steadily grown and is projected to more than quadruple from 2010 to 2050, compared with a doubling of the population aged 65 to 89, according to He and Muenchrath (2011).

People aged 90 and over are more likely to live in skilled-nursing facilities/nursing homes and to have a disability than those aged 85 to 89 or those of other, younger age groups within the 65-and-over

population.4 While the likelihood of living in a nursing home is extremely low at ages 65 to 69 (1.0 percent) and ages 75 to 79 (3.0 percent), it dramatically rises to 11.2 percent at ages 85 to 89, 19.8 percent at ages 90 to 94, 31.0 percent at ages 95 to 99, and 38.2 percent at 100 years of age and over (He and Muenchrath, 2011).

4 For definition of disability in the American Community Survey, see <www.census.gov/acs/www/Downloads /data_documentation/SubjectDefinitions /2008_ACSSubjectDefinitions.pdf>. For definition of skilled nursing facility, see <www.census.gov/acs/www /Downloads/data_documentation /GroupDefinitions/2008GQ_Definitions.pdf>.

Figure 1-2.Average Annual Growth Rate of the Total Population and Population Aged 65 and Over by Decade: 1900–1910 to 2040–2050(For information on confidentiality protection, nonsampling error, and definitions, see www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/doc/sf1.pdf)

Note: Average annual growth rates for 1900–1910 through 2000–2010 are based on reported census populations. Average annual growth rate for 2010–2020 is based on 2010 census data and projections data; 2020–2030 through 2040–2050 are based on projected populations. Sources: 1900 to 1940, and 1960 to 1980, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1983; 1950, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1953; 1990, U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1992; 2000, U.S. Census Bureau, 2001; 2010, U.S. Census Bureau, 2011; 2020 to 2050, U.S. Census Bureau, 2012a; 1900 to 2010, decennial census; 2020 to 2050, 2012 National Population Projections, Middle series.

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