Download - 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

Transcript
Page 1: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

The U.S. aerospace industry booked a relatively strong

performance in 2011, remaining one of the most significant

contributors to the national economy. Despite persistently

sluggish market conditions around the globe, annual sales are

expected to top $218 billion in 2011, marking the eighth

consecutive year of growth. The industry’s robust workforce also

points to the vital role played by aerospace in the U.S. economy.

Directly and indirectly, aerospace employs more than two million

Americans. Strong aircraft orders and the rollout of major new

products have contributed greatly to the industry’s performance.

At year’s end, annual sales are expected to be up across the

board in 2011. Civil and military aircraft, missiles and the space

sector are all expected to top their respective 2010 totals.

Given that the demand for aftermarket products and services

is closely tied to upstream market conditions, the U.S. aircraft

maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) sector also experienced

somewhat of a resurgence in 2011, capturing a significant share

of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major

economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-

ter a 3.8 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the

next five years.

2011YEAR-END REVIEWAND FORECAST

Page 2: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

2

Page 3: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

After a disappointing 2010, the U.S. civil aircraft sector

returned to a growth position. U.S. civil aircraft sales

are expected to total $49.7 billion in 2011, a 3.2 percent

annual increase. Looking forward, the sector is likely to

grow at a CAGR of some 3.4 percent during 2011-2013.

Orders for civil aircraft are expected to rise sharply in

2011, reaching nearly $107 billion, a gain of 23 percent.

The amount is far below the recent high of $224 billion in

2007, but is well ahead of the 2009 low of $23 billion.

Industry drivers in 2011 include several factors that have

influenced the market for a number of years, such as the

aging U.S. regional jet fleet and a growing demand for

fuel-efficient aircraft that has been driven by persistently

high and variable fuel prices. The introduction of new

aircraft has also created demand in the commercial

segment.

The U.S. large commercial aircraft market continues

to ramp up at a respectable pace, yet sagging airline

demand in the U.S. and Europe means that manufactur-

ers will necessarily depend more heavily on exports to

Asia, the Mideast, and other fast-growth markets. The

U.S. civil industry will be lifted as Boeing ramps up 787

and 747-8 production, now that the two new aircraft have

entered into service over the past few months.

The key market driver in 2012 will be the price of fuel.

High fuel prices create demand for new fuel-efficient

aircraft, while at the same time eroding airlines’ ability

to purchase new planes. This situation places renewed

emphasis on developing commercially viable alternative

fuels, which could potentially dampen the volatility of fuel

costs faced by operators while lessening the global airline

industry’s environmental impact. The U.S. is a leader in

alternative aviation fuel research and development, and

U.S. producers have successfully completed test flights

using fuels from a variety of feedstocks and are moving

toward commercial production.

210.

621

8.1

217.

7

BIL

LIO

NS

OF

DO

LL

AR

S

50

100

150

200

250

2012

(E)

2011

(P)

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

Aerospace Industry Sales

3

Civil Aircraft

Page 4: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

$199.5 $208.9 $210.6 $218.1 $217.7

50

100

150

200

250

2012(E)2011(P)201020092008

$30.2

$43.2

$23.2

$54.7

$48.2

$29.4

$45.0

$24.2

$58.9

$51.3

$29.7

$45.3

$25.1

$62.4

$48.2

$30.0

$46.4

$25.6

$66.5

$49.7

$30.6

$45.1

$25.1

$65.1

$51.7

KEYRelated Products& Services

Space

Missiles

Military Aircraft

Civil Aircraft

BIL

LIO

NS

OF

DO

LL

AR

S

Aerospace Industry Sales By Product Group

The U.S. military aircraft sector expanded by nearly 6.7

percent over last year, with sales estimated at $66.51

billion. The Department of Defense ordered more F/A-18

E/F Hornets and V-22s for the Navy and Marine Corps.

Future sales also look promising, as exemplified by the

$35 billion contract awarded to Boeing to build 179 KC-

46A refueling tankers.

While 2011 was a strong year for military aircraft,

domestic purchases are expected to decline in the

coming years due to federal deficit reduction measures.

These measures are likely to become even more

significant factors as much of the U.S. military aircraft

fleet nears maximum service-life limits. Anecdotally,

ground crews have pointed out that today’s pilots

are now flying the exact same equipment as did their

fathers. The recent grounding of several combat wings

due to equipment stress is impacting U.S. combat

readiness. The current U.S. Air Force fleet, whose

planes are on average more than 23 years old, is the

oldest in USAF history. Many transport aircraft and aerial

refueling tankers are more than 40 years old, and it is

expected that some may reach the 70-80 year mark

before they are finally retired.

As the U.S. increasingly seeks foreign buyers of military

aircraft, it faces competition from other nations that are

targeting the same opportunities. A case in point is the

The U.S. civil rotorcraft market is diverse, with the bulk of

new deliveries coming from mature production lines. The

market encompasses emergency medical service (EMS)

providers, offshore oil and gas exploration, and law en-

forcement applications. Following two years of significant

decreases in sales, U.S. civil helicopter shipments are

expected to increase to 454 aircraft in 2011, representing

an annual increase of 5.3 percent. This upward trajectory

is expected to continue into 2012 as demand deferred

during the economic downturn reaches the market.

Military Aircraft

4

Page 5: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

The U.S. aerospace industry continued to show

reasonable international strength in 2011 despite the

lingering effects of the global economic downturn. In

2011, the industry contributed $87 billion in export sales

to the domestic economy. The industry’s positive trade

balance of $57.4 billion places aerospace in the lead,

representing the largest positive trade balance of any

manufacturing industry.

U.S. aerospace exports are expected to increase to

nearly $90 billion in 2011, up 12 percent after falling for

two years. The increase is due primarily to strengthened

civil exports, which are expected to grow by 14 percent

in 2011, reaching nearly $77 billion. U.S. aerospace

imports are also expected to increase in 2011, driven

primarily by increased purchases of foreign aircraft

engines and engine parts. Overall, aerospace-related

imports are expected to reach $29.6 billion, an increase

of 12 percent.

In recent years, Near- and Middle Eastern governments

have steadily increased purchases of U.S. military

aircraft. Most recently, the sale of 24 refurbished F16-C/

Ds to Indonesia, along with the possibility of other sales,

came out in President Obama’s announcement that the

U.S. will expand its military ties in Southeast Asia. As

tensions rise with Iran and Syria, the UAE has stepped up

purchases to secure its borders and maintain the abil-

ity to deliver its recent $304 million purchase of “bunker

busting” weapons in response to Iran’s nuclear program.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia bought 85 F-15E fighter jets

valued at $29.4 billion and the Iraqi government has

agreed to purchase 18 U.S. F-16 fighters, worth about $3

billion.

Trade

20

40

60

80

100

Imports

Exports

Surplus

2011

(P)

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

2011 EXPORTS87.0

2011 SURPLUS57.4

2011 IMPORTS29.6

2007 PEAK60.6

2007 PEAK97.2

BIL

LIO

NS

OF

DO

LL

AR

S

Aerospace Foreign Trade

recent India fighter competition. That the U.S. entrants

failed to win the competition is a sure sign of how

effective competitors in this market can be.

5

Page 6: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

This year has been a particularly challenging one for the

U.S. space industry. Developments in 2011 that have

directly impacted the industry include: retirement of

the space shuttle, which caused the loss of thousands

of high-tech industry jobs; the near cancellation of the

James Webb Space Telescope; and reductions in NOAA

polar orbiting weather satellites and national security

space programs. Despite these roadblocks, there were

some bright spots including an agreement on a way for-

ward for an important new NASA exploration initiative, the

Space Launch System, which will develop a new launch

system to enable human exploration beyond Earth orbit.

SpaceBudget cuts will continue to menace the U.S. space in-

dustrial base, and an anticipated increase in competition

from Indian, Chinese and Russian space programs will

exacerbate the situation. Likely impacting U.S. industry’s

competitive stance is the U.S. government’s increasing

dependence on commercial systems to enhance U.S.

space programs and launch capabilities, fostering new

opportunities for the private sector.

BIL

LIO

NS

OF

DO

LL

AR

S

100

200

300

400

500

600Backlog

Orders

2008 Peak515.0

2007 Peak316.4

ORDERS204.8

SHIPMENTS184.2

BACKLOG462.7

Shipments

2010

2011

(P)

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

Aerospace Shipments, Orders and Backlog

As in 2010, 2011 proved to be a challenging year for

general aviation. Lingering effects of the financial crisis

of 2008 and the European banking crisis continue to

General Aviation

6

Page 7: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

Aerospace employment is likely to register a slight in-

crease in 2011, as the hardest-hit sectors of the industry

find firmer footing. Total year-end employment is

expected to be 624,400, up from 624,000. According

to a recent study by the U.S. Department of Commerce,

aerospace supports more jobs through exports than any

other industry. The U.S. aerospace industry directly em-

ploys about 500,000 workers in scientific and technical

jobs across the nation and supports more than 700,000

additional jobs in related fields.

Employment

2011 Total:624.4

KEY

EM

PL

OY

EE

S (

TH

OU

SA

ND

S)

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Search, Detection & Navigation Instruments

Guided Missiles, Space Vehicles & Parts

Aircraft, Engines and Parts

2011

(P)

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

141

71

412

Aerospace Employment

restrict financing for the sector. Further, several initiatives

are under consideration that are tied to new taxes and

increased regulations that may limit the sector’s growth.

However, bright spots do exist, including a strong de-

mand for new equipment by regional airlines operating in

developing airline service markets.

As private air travel becomes more commonplace, larger

business jet aircraft are leading market sales within the

sector, particularly in Southeast Asia. China represents

another growing market, and it has been estimated that

by the end of the decade the nation will account for 20

percent of global business jet deliveries, up from today’s

7 percent. Light and medium business jets remain an

area of concern, with a three-year downturn threatening

to extend into 2012, and deliveries depressed for several

key U.S. companies.

7

Page 8: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

8

Page 9: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

Looking forward to 2012, aspects for growth are positive

in commercial aerospace and neutral in the defense

sector. That said, both the commercial and military

sectors remain vulnerable to numerous variables that are

capable of overturning current expectations and trends.

A mounting sense of urgency to address high levels of

deficit spending by the U.S. is expected to induce cuts

to the U.S. defense budget. However, rising commer-

cial aircraft sales (up 7.5 percent year-over-year through

September 2011) could offset these drags on the market

and may spur the commercial aviation sector to increase

capital spending on new equipment.

Volatile fuel prices continue to spur world airlines to re-

place older, less fuel-efficient aircraft with newer models.

This demand, combined with rapid growth in air travel in

Asia and the Middle East, continues to feed a growing

demand for new aircraft. Moreover, the global air traffic

market is expected to increase annually at a rate of 4.9

percent over the next 20 years, considerably higher than

the global GDP growth rate. Consequently, in order to

keep pace with the growing demand for air travel, esti-

mates predict that by the end of 2029, the world’s airlines

will take delivery of 29,000 commercial aircraft with a total

value of $3.2 trillion.

Order books at Boeing and Airbus contain six to seven

years of commercial aircraft production at current levels.

Both companies have announced significant produc-

tion rate increases that began late last year and stretch

through 2014. It is expected that the business jet market,

which has been battered both by difficult market condi-

tions and political headwinds, will improve modestly in

2012. The aftermarket parts and service business for

business jets and large commercial airplanes is staging

a solid recovery, driven by increased flight hours for both

categories.

As for the defense segment, both the FY2012 base and

supplementary (“OCO”) defense budgets authorize

funding for aerospace and defense procurement at

increasing rates. In addition, the aging of conventional

military equipment such as planes, ships and tanks

necessitates equipment replacement and repair. Howev-

er, the magnitude of cuts to global defense budgets is still

uncertain as the U.S. Congress and national legislatures

around the world attempt to reduce deficits and overall

governmental spending. While the U.S. defense industry

remains very concerned about potential budget cuts,

2011 deliveries reflect the strength of previous years’

budgets.

While outlays are currently positive for military fixed-wing

aircraft and rotorcraft programs, funding for new program

starts is highly uncertain. Missile and munition demand

also looks vulnerable, as weapons stockpiles are often

cut first when combat operations and defense budgets

trend downward.

In space, the market continues on a reasonable plateau,

driven by ongoing satellite replenishment and launch

services demand. While cuts to NASA’s FY2012 budget

will have a negative impact, they were less severe than

those advocated by some policymakers.

The U.S. aerospace industry continues to provide

significant contributions to the country’s economy and

provides capabilities vital for national security. With

employees in every state of the union, it generates the

highest positive trade balance of any U.S. manufactur-

ing sector. This is particularly relevant given the na-

tion’s challenges of high unemployment, a stagnating

economy and a crippling national deficit. AIA’s 2011

Year-End Review and 2012 Forecast reports increases

in almost every category – from civil aviation to space.

In the years following 2012 our industry will face signifi-

cant challenges, particularly in the defense sector, as

the government seeks solutions to an ongoing budget

crisis. Our position has been firmly established – we will

continue to educate the public and elected officials on the

need to maintain an aerospace industry that is Second to

None in the world.

9

Summary and Outlook

Page 10: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

Year Total Civil Military Missiles Space

Current Dollars (Billions)2001 $151.63 $86.47 $51.26 $35.22 $10.39 $29.50 $25.272002 152.35 79.49 41.34 38.15 12.85 34.62 25.392003 146.03 72.84 32.44 40.40 13.49 35.86 23.842004 156.48 79.13 32.52 46.61 17.46 35.70 24.202005 167.13 86.66 37.16 49.50 18.44 36.66 25.362006 182.58 98.28 45.85 52.44 20.26 37.56 26.482007 196.53 105.60 52.55 53.05 21.98 39.90 29.062008 199.49 102.90 48.18 54.71 23.20 43.22 30.182009 208.87 110.18 51.30 58.88 24.22 45.04 29.442010 210.55 110.51 48.16 62.35 25.06 45.30 29.682011(P) 218.08 116.19 49.68 66.51 25.57 46.36 29.962012(E) 217.65 116.75 51.71 65.05 25.12 45.14 30.63

Constant Dollarsa (Billions)2001 $147.73 $84.25 $49.94 $34.31 $10.12 $28.74 $24.622002 145.98 76.16 39.61 36.55 12.31 33.18 24.332003 136.34 68.01 30.29 37.72 12.59 33.48 22.262004 141.76 71.68 29.46 42.22 15.81 32.34 21.932005 145.83 75.62 32.43 43.19 16.09 31.99 22.132006 153.78 82.78 38.62 44.16 17.06 31.63 22.302007 160.54 86.26 42.93 43.33 17.95 32.59 23.742008 157.13 81.04 37.95 43.09 18.28 34.04 23.772009 160.58 84.70 39.44 45.27 18.62 34.63 22.632010 159.91 83.93 36.58 47.35 19.03 34.41 22.542011(P) 162.57 86.62 37.04 49.58 19.06 34.56 22.332012(E) 159.59 85.61 37.91 47.69 18.42 33.10 22.46

Source: Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), based on company reports; The Budget of the United States Government,

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), U.S. Department of Commerce, and Department of Defense.

a. Based on AIA’s aerospace composite price deflator, (2000=100).

E. Estimate.

P. Preliminary.

Table I Aerospace Industry Sales by Product Group

Calendar Years 2001-2012

Total Sales

AIRCRAFT RelatedProducts &

Services

10

Page 11: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

Year Total Civil Military Missiles Space

Current Dollars (Billions)2001 $151.63 $86.47 $51.26 $35.22 $10.39 $29.50 $25.272002 152.35 79.49 41.34 38.15 12.85 34.62 25.392003 146.03 72.84 32.44 40.40 13.49 35.86 23.842004 156.48 79.13 32.52 46.61 17.46 35.70 24.202005 167.13 86.66 37.16 49.50 18.44 36.66 25.362006 182.58 98.28 45.85 52.44 20.26 37.56 26.482007 196.53 105.60 52.55 53.05 21.98 39.90 29.062008 199.49 102.90 48.18 54.71 23.20 43.22 30.182009 208.87 110.18 51.30 58.88 24.22 45.04 29.442010 210.55 110.51 48.16 62.35 25.06 45.30 29.682011(P) 218.08 116.19 49.68 66.51 25.57 46.36 29.962012(E) 217.65 116.75 51.71 65.05 25.12 45.14 30.63

Constant Dollarsa (Billions)2001 $147.73 $84.25 $49.94 $34.31 $10.12 $28.74 $24.622002 145.98 76.16 39.61 36.55 12.31 33.18 24.332003 136.34 68.01 30.29 37.72 12.59 33.48 22.262004 141.76 71.68 29.46 42.22 15.81 32.34 21.932005 145.83 75.62 32.43 43.19 16.09 31.99 22.132006 153.78 82.78 38.62 44.16 17.06 31.63 22.302007 160.54 86.26 42.93 43.33 17.95 32.59 23.742008 157.13 81.04 37.95 43.09 18.28 34.04 23.772009 160.58 84.70 39.44 45.27 18.62 34.63 22.632010 159.91 83.93 36.58 47.35 19.03 34.41 22.542011(P) 162.57 86.62 37.04 49.58 19.06 34.56 22.332012(E) 159.59 85.61 37.91 47.69 18.42 33.10 22.46

Source: Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), based on company reports; The Budget of the United States Government,

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), U.S. Department of Commerce, and Department of Defense.

a. Based on AIA’s aerospace composite price deflator, (2000=100).

E. Estimate.

P. Preliminary.

Aerospace Industry Sales by Product Group

Year

Current Dollars (Billions)2001 $151.63 $126.36 $49.98 $14.48 $61.90 $25.272002 152.35 126.96 57.40 16.39 53.17 25.392003 146.03 122.19 64.16 16.52 41.51 23.842004 156.48 132.28 73.27 16.98 42.04 24.202005a 167.13 141.76 77.83 17.25 46.68 25.362006 182.58 156.10 79.78 17.22 59.10 26.482007 196.53 167.47 84.34 17.80 65.33 29.062008 199.49 169.32 89.23 19.51 60.58 30.182009 208.87 179.43 96.67 20.81 61.95 29.442010 210.55 180.87 101.45 21.10 58.33 29.682011(P) 218.08 188.12 107.64 21.17 59.30 29.962012(E) 217.65 187.02 105.38 20.13 61.51 30.63

Constant Dollarsa (Billions)2001 $147.73 $123.11 $48.69 $14.11 $60.31 $24.622002 145.98 121.65 55.00 15.70 50.95 24.332003 136.34 114.08 59.90 15.43 38.76 22.262004 141.76 119.84 66.37 15.38 38.08 21.932005a 145.83 123.70 67.91 15.05 40.73 22.132006 153.78 131.48 67.19 14.51 49.78 22.302007 160.54 136.80 68.90 14.54 53.37 23.742008 157.13 133.36 70.28 15.36 47.72 23.772009 160.58 137.95 74.32 16.00 47.63 22.632010 159.91 137.37 77.05 16.02 44.30 22.542011(P) 162.57 140.24 80.25 15.78 44.21 22.332012(E) 159.59 137.13 77.27 14.76 45.10 22.46

Source: Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), based on company reports; The Budget of the United States Government,

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), U.S. Department of Commerce, and Department of Defense.

a. Beginning in 2005, NASA sales were reported separately from other agencies.

b. Based on AIA’s aerospace composite price deflator, (2000=100).

E. Estimate.

P. Preliminary.

Table IIAerospace Industry Sales by CustomerC

alendar Years 2001-2012

Total Sales

AEROSPACE PRODUCTS AND SERVICESRelated

Products &Services

Other Customers

NASA & Other

Agencies

Department of Defense

Total

11

Page 12: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

Year Shipments Orders Backlog 1992 $137,114 $118,369 $220,2331993 123,850 100,815 197,1981994 112,511 98,621 183,3081995 110,928 115,279 187,6591996 110,840 134,142 210,9611997 132,787 143,071 221,2451998 150,077 138,407 209,5751999 152,728 140,329 197,1762000 144,740 165,994 218,4302001 153,571 146,444 211,3032002 140,889 132,271 202,6852003 135,955 137,455 204,1852004 145,305 152,437 211,3172005 152,081 214,099 273,3352006 165,652 248,546 356,2292007 202,723 316,361 469,8672008 211,943 257,096 515,0202009 207,585 126,226 433,6612010 187,909 196,324 442,0762011(P) 184,158 204,809 462,727

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders” and AIA estimates.

Notes: Not seasonally adjusted; includes aircraft engine and parts manufacturing.

Includes both Civil and Defense Data

P. Preliminary.

Table III Shipments, Orders and Backlog: Aircraft & Parts and Search & Navigation EquipmentAs of End-of-Year 1992-2011

12

Page 13: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011a

TOTAL BACKLOG:

Number of Aircraft 3,427 3,714 3,375 3,443 3,520 Value (in millions) $270,728 $296,217 $263,129 $265,553 $282,881

Boeing:B-737 2,076 2,270 2,076 2,186 2,215 B-747 125 114 108 107 111 B-767 52 70 59 50 49 B-777 357 350 281 253 325 B-787 817 910 851 847 820

Foreign Order Backlog

Percent of Total Backlog:Number of Aircraft 75.3% 77.8% 79.5% 77.8% 71.6%Value 78.8% 81.1% 82.9% 81.6% 76.7% Number of Aircraft 2,581 2,891 2,682 2,679 2,519 Value (in millions $213,418 $240,092 $218,208 $216,701 $217,018

Boeing: B-737 1,493 1,703 1,605 1,643 1,460 B-747 101 97 94 95 100 B-767 24 42 34 30 30 B-777 284 271 230 221 266 B-787 679 778 719 690 663

Domestic Order Backlog

Percent of Total Backlog:Number of Aircraft 24.7% 22.2% 20.5% 22.2% 28.4%Value 21.2% 18.9% 17.1% 18.4% 23.3% Number of Aircraft 846 823 693 764 1,001 Value (in millions) $57,310 $56,124 $44,921 $48,852 $65,863 Boeing: B-737 583 567 471 543 755 B-747 24 17 14 12 11 B-767 28 28 25 20 19 B-777 73 79 51 32 59 B-787 138 132 132 157 157 Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on company reports.

a. As of end of third quarter.

Table IVU.S. Civil Transport Aircraft Backlog Calendar Years 2007-2011

13

Page 14: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

Year TOTAL

Number of Aircraft Shipped

2001 3,575 526 415 2,6342002 2,904 379 318 2,2072003 2,935 281 517 2,1372004 3,445 285 805 2,3552005 4,094 290 947 2,8572006 4,443 398 898 3,1472007 4,729 441 1,009 3,2792008 4,538 375 1,084 3,0792009 2,630 481 564 1,5852010 2,227 462 431 1,3342011(P) 2,065 471 454 1,1402012(E) 2,132 490 486 1,156 Value (millions of dollars)

2001 $43,043 $34,155 $247 $8,6412002 35,450 27,574 157 7,7192003 27,833 21,033 366 6,4342004 27,815 20,484 515 6,8162005 31,424 21,941 816 8,6672006 37,085 25,875 843 10,3672007 42,431 29,160 1,330 11,9412008 38,910 24,076 1,486 13,3482009 39,884 29,695 1,107 9,0822010 36,217 27,350 992 7,8752011(P) 37,211 28,783 972 7,4562012(E) 39,576 30,862 1,043 7,670

Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on company reports, data from the

General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) and AIA estimates

E. Estimate.

P. Preliminary.

Table V Civil Aircraft ShipmentsCalendar Years 2001-2012

Transport Aircraft

Helicopters General Aviation

14

Page 15: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

Table VIU.S. Aerospace Balance of TradeC

alendar Years 2007-2011

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(P)

BALANCE OF TRADE:

Current Dollars $60,614 $57,389 $56,034 $51,152 $57,410Constant Dollarsa 49,515 45,201 43,080 38,849 42,798

AEROSPACE EXPORTS:

Current Dollars $97,224 $95,082 $81,166 $77,503 $86,982Constant Dollarsa 79,421 74,889 62,402 58,863 64,843 AEROSPACE IMPORTS:

Current Dollars $36,610 $37,694 $25,132 $26,351 $29,573Constant Dollarsa 29,906 29,688 19,322 20,013 22,046

Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and AIA estimates.

Note: Trade balances may not equal the difference between exports and imports due to rounding.

a. Based on AIA’s aerospace composite price deflator, (2000=100).

P. Preliminary.

15

Page 16: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

(Millions of Dollars) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(P)

TOTAL IMPORTS $36,610 $37,694 $25,132 $26,351 $29,573

Aircraft $13,296 $12,480 $9,299 $9,041 $9,091

Military 12.3 51.5 0.4 61.7 123.2

Civil 13,284 12,428 9,299 8,979 8,968Transports 6,916 6,460 4,955 3,258 4,098General Aviation 4,532 4,066 2,337 2,191 2,553Helicopters 889 1,143 833 838 862Othera 947 758 1,173 2,692 1,455

Aircraft Engines 3,880 4,328 3,752 3,799 4,358

Turbine 3,812 4,195 3,616 3,700 4,289Piston 69 133 136 99 68

Aircraft and Engine Parts 18,528 19,989 11,383 12,498 14,919

Spacecraft, Missiles, Rockets, and Parts 905 896 698 1,013 1,205

Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and AIA estimates.

Notes: Import data include non-military aircraft parts and aerospace products previously exported from the United States.

Totals may not equal sum of terms due to rounding.

a. Includes used aircraft, gliders, balloons and airships.

P. Preliminary.

Table VII U.S. Imports of Aerospace Products

Calendar Years 2007-2011

16

Page 17: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

(Millions of Dollars) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(P) TOTAL EXPORTS $97,224 $95,082 $81,166 $77,503 $86,982

TOTAL CIVIL EXPORTS $83,979 $82,264 $70,500 $67,128 $76,689

Complete Aircraft 47,559 42,422 (D) (D) (D)Transports 40,297 33,326 General Aviation 3,911 4,818 Helicopters 1,117 948 Used Aircraft 2,197 3,284 Other Aircraft 37 46 Aircraft Engines 7,127 8,505 Turbine 6,953 8,334 Piston 174 171 Aircraft & Engine Parts, Including Spares 28,469 30,777 Missiles, Rockets & Parts 13 25 Spacecraft, Satellites & Parts 811 535

TOTAL MILITARY EXPORTS $13,246 $12,819 $10,666 $10,375 $10,293 Complete Aircraft 4,174 4,520 2,325 1,742 1,622Transports 789 1,548 276 140 457Helicopters 791 300 520 832 537Fighters & Bombers 2,303 1,930 1,208 432 459Used Aircraft 119 590 93 43 20Other Aircraft 172 152 228 294 149 Aircraft Engines 414 423 517 357 533Turbine 277 344 381 271 435Piston 137 80 137 86 98 Aircraft and Engine Parts, Including Spares 7,185 6,311 6,126 6,404 6,523

Missiles, Rockets & Parts 1,359 1,425 1,509 1,741 1,509 Spacecraft, Satellites & Parts 114 139 189 133 107

Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and AIA estimates. Note: Totals may not equal sum of terms due to rounding.

P. Preliminary.

D. Civil aerospace export data suppressed by U.S. Census Bureau beginning first quarter 2009.

Table VIIIExports of U.S. Aerospace ProductsC

alendar Years 2007-2011

17

Page 18: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

ALL WORKERS (THOUSANDS) 2000 666.1 438.4 242.7 98.1 97.6 78.4 149.4 304.12001 660.7 434.5 241.3 95.6 97.6 76.5 149.8 297.42002 618.4 396.7 220.2 87.9 88.6 73.6 148.1 263.32003 587.1 371.9 209.1 81.3 81.5 70.2 145.0 249.52004 592.0 369.9 207.2 79.2 83.5 71.6 150.5 244.22005 611.7 380.0 211.3 81.9 86.8 75.1 156.6 270.02006 631.8 398.5 221.7 84.4 92.4 75.5 157.7 326.92007 646.8 413.6 230.2 85.3 98.1 75.5 157.6 359.52008 659.8 428.9 237.4 87.2 104.3 77.6 153.3 303.02009 644.5 414.0 234.9 80.4 98.7 78.3 152.2 292.42010 624.0 402.5 228.5 76.4 97.6 74.7 146.8 276.42011(P) 624.4 412.0 234.6 76.3 101.1 71.3 141.0 282.1 1Q10 626.0 401.7 229.2 76.5 96.0 75.9 148.3 281.12Q10 623.4 400.2 226.6 76.5 97.1 75.5 147.7 275.93Q10 624.9 403.7 229.1 76.7 97.9 74.6 146.6 275.14Q10 621.5 404.2 229.1 75.8 99.3 72.6 144.7 273.6 1Q11 620.9 406.1 230.9 75.2 99.9 71.6 143.2 275.32Q11 623.0 411.1 234.1 76.1 100.9 71.1 140.9 280.43Q11 629.2 418.9 238.8 77.5 102.6 71.3 139.0 287.7

Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

a. Starting in 2008, the ‘production workers’ series does not include: Search, Detection, and Navigation Instruments.

P. Preliminary.

Table IX Aerospace Related Employment

Calendar Years 2000-2011

Total Aircraft Aircraft Engines &

Parts

Other Aircraft Parts &

Equipment

Guided Mis-siles, Space Vehicles &

Parts

Search, Detection & Navigation

Instruments

Production Workers

Total Employment

Period

18

Page 19: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

Aerospace Industry Profits

Year Dollars Sales Assets Equity Sales Assets Equity 1992 (1,836) (1.4) (1.2) (5.2) 1.0 1.0 2.6 1993 4,621 3.6 3.5 13.2 2.8 2.9 8.1 1994 5,655 4.7 4.3 14.8 5.4 5.8 15.6 1995 4,633 3.8 3.5 11.1 5.7 6.2 16.2 1996 7,150 5.6 5.1 17.1 6.0 6.5 16.8 1997 7,221 5.2 4.8 17.3 6.2 6.6 16.6 1998 7,701 5.0 4.8 18.0 6.0 6.1 15.7 1999 10,214b 6.5 6.2 21.8 6.2 6.1 16.5 2000 7,260 4.7 4.3 14.2 6.1 5.9 15.2 2001 6,565 3.9 3.6 11.6 0.8 0.8 1.9 2002 6,547c 4.1 3.7 11.7 3.3 2.9 7.7 2003 7,243 4.2 3.3 12.3 5.4 4.7 12.2 2004 9,504 5.2 4.0 14.3 7.1 6.5 15.9 2005 12,573 6.4 4.7 16.8 7.4 6.9 16.4 2006 14,106 6.7 5.1 18.4 8.1 7.6 17.5 2007 18,715 8.2 6.7 24.5 7.3 6.7 31.2 2008 14,568 6.1 4.7 18.6 4.2 3.8 8.8 2009 16,344 6.8 5.2 26.6 5.7 4.3 10.4 2010 16,475 6.8 5.5 23.0 8.3 6.6 15.1 2011(P) 18,396 7.6 6.1 23.4 9.7 8.0 17.8

Source: Bureau of the Census, Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations and AIA estimates.

a. Reflects unusually large non-operating expenses totaling $3.4 billion and $8.7 billion in 1991 and 1992, respectively,

due to restructuring charges and the implementation of a change in accounting for future retirement benefit costs.

b. Includes non-operating income (less interest expense) totaling $4.4 billion.

c. Includes non-operating expenses (less interest expense) totaling $3.5 billion.

P. Preliminary.

( ) Denotes net loss.

Table XNet Profit After TaxesC

alendar Years 1992-2011(P)

As a Percent of: Profits as a Percent of:

(In Millions)

All Manufacturing Corporations

19

Page 20: 2011YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST · of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to regis-ter a 3.8 percent compound

1000 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 1700 Arlington, VA 22209-3928

703.358.1000