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TSEC-BIOSYS: Theme 1.4 Role of International Bioenergy Trade for the UK
www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk
Miles PerryCentre for Environmental Policy
Imperial College, London
Biomass role in the UK energy futures The Royal Society, London: 28th & 29th July 2009
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TSEC BiosysTSEC BiosysIntroduction
Biomass imports in UK energy– 2000-present
Biomass imports looking to 2020 – analysis using Biosys-MARKAL
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Imported Biomass
Total Biomass(plant&animal)
Total Biomass (all)**
Total Renewable*
3.15% 9.89% 8.83% 9.97% 7.21% Biomass Imports asShare of Primary RE
Source: DUKES
**inc. waste and tyres. excl. liquid biofuels. ‘Primary’ wind counted as electricity generated** Total biomass = plant-&-animal-based + wood, wood waste, landfill methane and sewage sludge
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Prim
ary
Ener
gy -
ktoe
Sewage and landfillup 38% 2000-07
Biomass Imports go from 0%-10% ofRE in 2 years
Domestic biomassdevelops more slowly
2000 -> 2007More renewables (inc. biomass) enter energy system
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Source: DUKES. % refers to energy content of biomass input
2000 -> 2007Growth Driven by Co-firing Market
(Destination of 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Plant & animal biomass)- for electricity generation 44% 51% 57% 70% 68% 63%- for co-firing 11% 20% 30% 52% 51% 41%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Biomass -> Electricityexcl. sewage, landfill gas, MSW
Co-firing All conversion routes
Biom
ass
Inpu
t - k
toe
Advantages of Co-firing:
- Low-cost, low-risk & rapid deployment at the margin
Relative to other technologies
- Technological neutrality of Renewables Obligation
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Source: DUKES & DECC. % of co-firing feedstock refers to mass (tonnes)
2000 -> 2007Co-firing & Imports
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Biomass -> Electricity & Imports
Co-firingAll plant&animal (excl. sewage, LFG, MSW)Imported Biomass (all energy uses)
Biom
ass
Inpu
t - k
toe
Biomass imports crucial in bioenergy growth from 2002-2003
More domestic biomass co-fired since 2005?Not so sure…
Likely Imports as % of Co-firing feedstock
2005 2007Palm, olive & shea 52% 47%Wood pellet 12% 14%Sunflower pellet 1% 10%Tall Oil 9% 5%Total 74% 76%
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* - co-firing of energy crops &/or in CHP units is exempt from this cap
Bioelectricity & imports 2007
- Imports for co-firing less attractive due to successive RO reforms- ≤12.5% of ROCs can come from co-firing*
(=> uncertainty at the margin)- Dedicated biomass plants receive 3 × more ROCs / MWh
- 2006-07:Ratio falls for the first time
Includes 50% year-on-year increase in combustion of biomass of animal origin
- Imports helpful as bridge towards larger UK biomass exploitation?
ictherElectrBiomassToO
firedBiomassCo
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Source: Hawkins Wright, Forest Energy Monitor. OFGEM RO Accreditation Statistics
Bioelectricity & imports post-2007
Dedicated PlantCapacity 30/06/09 197 MW
of which 2007-08additions 78 MW
Capacity of additionalplants proposed 1,975 MW
Assume:Load Factor 80%Avg. Efficiency 30%
Annual FeedstockRequirement 183 PJ
UK Existing Supply(Biomass Strategy, 2007 234-282 PJexcl. mass energy crop planting)
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Source: DECC (Renewable Energy Strategy Consultation), Pellet@las Project
Renewable Heat & UK Wood Pellet Market
- Renewable Sources account for <1% of UK heat generation- UK imports of pellet for industrial applications represent significant share of European pellet trade
~750,000 tonnes consumed (2008)~150,000 tonnes used for co-firing (2007)
- 600,000 tonnes (~8.5 PJ heat generation) is equivalent to ~1/3 of UK renewable heat consumption in 2007
- UK consumption of high-grade (residential) pellets almost uniquely low in W. Europe
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Source: RFA Monthly Reports
Biofuels in TransportRTFO year 1 target: 2.5% of road fuel by volume
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Source: RFA Monthly Reports, European Biodiesel Board, European Bioethanol Industry Association
Biofuels in TransportRTFO year 1 target: 2.5% of road fuel by volume
Biodiesel from UK oilseed rape 26 Ml.[UK feedstock claimed under RTFO 08/09] from UK tallow 5 Ml.
from UK used cooking oil 34 Ml.65 Ml.
[UK production – all feedstocks] (EBB) 2008 212 Ml.
Bioethanol[UK feedstock claimed under RTFO 08/09] from sugar beet 37 Ml.
[UK production – all feedstocks] Bioethanol 2008 75 Ml.
UK Biofuels Sector is Trade-oriented- Imported feedstocks are processed in the UK (vegetable oils, tallow)&/or- UK biofuels not produced exclusively for UK road transport market
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UK Biomass Resources: a snapshot
Imports account for:11% - 43% of biomass used in heat & power(depending on how you define ‘biomass’)
& the vast majority of biofuel feedstocks in transport
even though UK resources are not fully utilised
Wood w
aste
Wood
Cellulosic
energy
crops
Straw
Oilseed ra
pe (non-fo
od)
Landfill m
ethan
e
Poultry litt
er
Other
manure
Food w
aste
(C&I)
Sewage
gas0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Used 2007 Unutilised Potential
Biom
ass
Ener
gy (P
J - H
HV)
Source: various reports cited in Perry & Rosillio-Calle. UK Country Report for IEA Task 40. www.bioenergytrade.org
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UK Bioenergy Trade: Summary
Biomass -> electricity & transport pathways - initially dominated by imports- and integration with existing production and distribution infrastructure
Substantial planned capacity – irrespective of feedstock origin
Electricity: ~2,000 MW dedicated plant planned + co-firingTransport Fuels: 671 Ml. biodiesel production capacity in 2009
820 Ml. bioethanol capacity under construction
What does this mean?
Imports prevent realisation of UK supply potential?
Imports phased-out as UK supply chains develop?
Imports increase size and penetration of bioenergy in the UK?
What about other renewables?Source: European Biodiesel Board, European Bioethanol Industry Association
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UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
Using BIOSYS_MARKAL:
- we can examine the competing merits of imported biomass, domestic biomass and other renewables
- in a realistic energy policy context
The recipe:
1.) Take Biosys_MARKAL (developed by Jablonski et al.) & adjust for short-term analysis (2010-2020)
2.) Create 2 short-term policy scenariosi) business-as-usualii) Renewable Energy Directive
3.) Examine role of imported biomass
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UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
BIOSYS_MARKAL recap:
Objective:
Minimise discounted total system cost of UK energy provision
subject to:
• Satisfaction of energy service demands (GJ of heat, km of travel etc.)
• Compliance with technical constraints and policy constraints
UK biomass resource & technology detail from TSEC_Biosys
Biomass import costs & quantities from literature
review and consultation with industry experts
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UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
2 Resource Scenarios:
- Domestic Pessimism:
UK Biomass available to energy system cannot exceed 2007-09 levels (DUKES, RFA)
- Domestic Optimism:
Potential 2020 resource fully availableas per TSEC analysis and latest literature
2 Policy Scenarios:
- Business-as-usual: Renewables encouraged by RO and RTFO
- Renewable Energy Directive: 15% renewables in final energy consumption
(electricity, heat and transport collectively)10% renewables in transport
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UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
2 Policy Scenarios ctd.
- Business-as-usual:
RO as per RO Order 2009 but only partially banded (by technology but not by biomass crop type)
RTFO fully flexible between biofuels≥ 5% liquid biofuel or biogas per litre of road transport fuel
- Renewable Energy Directive (RED):
RED requirements applied literally
15% renewables in final energy consumption (electricity, heat and transport collectively)
10% renewables in transport
in addition to BAU policies
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UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
BAU Policies, Domestic Pessimism
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2020 demand Unutilised Potential
PJ –
prim
ary
feed
stoc
k eq
uiva
lent
Agri. Resid
ues
Wood ch
ip
Wood pelle
t
Bioethanol
Biodiesel
FT liq
uids0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2020 Imports Unutilised Potential
Domestic Imported
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UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
Renewable Energy Directive, Domestic PessimismDomestic Imported
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
2020 demand Unutilised Potential
PJ –
prim
ary
feed
stoc
k eq
uiva
lent
Agri. Resid
ues
Wood ch
ip
Wood pelle
t
Bioethanol
Biodiesel
FT liq
uids0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
2020 Imports Unutilised Potential
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0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2020 demand Unutilised Potential
PJ –
prim
ary
feed
stoc
k eq
uiva
lent
UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
Renewable Energy Directive – UK Biomass Supply 2020Domestic - Pessimism Domestic - Optimism
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2020 demand Unutilised Potential
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UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
Renewable Energy Directive – Biomass Imports 2020Imported - Domestic Pessimism Imported - Domestic Optimism
Agri. Resid
ues
Wood ch
ip
Wood pelle
t
Bioethanol
Biodiesel
FT liq
uids0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
2020 Imports Unutilised Potential
PJ –
pri
mar
y fe
edst
ock
equi
vale
nt
Agri. Resid
ues
Wood ch
ip
Wood pelle
t
Bioethanol
Biodiesel
FT liq
uids0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
2020 Imports Unutilised Potential
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UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKAL
Renewable Energy Directive: Transport Markets 2020
Biodiesel; 64
Ethanol; 14
FT Diesel; 25
FT Kerosene; 57
Biogas; 11
Renewable Electricity; 37 Total Renewable Transport Energy
Domestic Pessimism: 207 PJ
Biodiesel; 61
Ethanol; 14
FT Diesel; 28
FT Kerosene,
62
Biogas; 22
Renewable Electricity; 7
Total Renewable Transport EnergyDomestic Optimism: 193 PJ
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UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKALRenewable Energy Directive: Electricity Markets
2010 2015 20200
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Non-renewable Other RenewableWind Biomass
TWh
2010 2015 20200
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Non-renewable Other RenewableWind Biomass
TWh
Domestic Pessimism: Domestic Optimism:
- RED scenarios have very little biomass -> electricity (only landfill gas in 2020)- Presence of imports + full domestic supply -> less pressure on electricity market to meet RED target
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UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKALRenewable Energy Directive:
Biomass Destination (Primary Energy – feedstock equivalent)
Domestic Pessimism: Domestic Optimism:
Electricity (inc CHP)11%
Transport50%
Heat39%
Electricity (inc CHP)12%
Transport31%Heat
57%
Total: 509 PJ Total: 924 PJ
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UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKALRenewable Energy Directive:
How much biomass is that?
PJ (feedstock) Pessimism Optimism
Domestic 145 596
Imported 364 328
Total 509 924
Compared to UK potential:
DEFRA Biomass Strategy 346
Compared to present-day use (UK & Imported):
Heat & Power (DUKES 2007) 127Transport (RTFO year 1) 64
191
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UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKALCan we really import >300 PJ of biomass?
- Biosys_MARKAL upper bounds based on literature review.
Assuming either:
- UK able to maintain global import share (biodiesel, bioethanol)OR- A ‘fair share’ of a global product is available to the UK(based on UK share of Global Primary Energy Supplyor global of an equivalent fossil product)
- But will this supply actually be realised?valid question for both UK and import markets
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UK Bioenergy Trade: looking forward with MARKALCan we really import >300 PJ of biomass?
- Biosys_MARKAL has a number of upper bounds for biomass imports.
Which of them are binding constraints in RED 2020?
Dom. Pessimism Dom. Optimism
Palm & Olive Ethanol (cane, starch & cellulosic)BiodieselFT liquids Wood-derived Biomass (higher level constraint)Wood pellet
In both scenarios, imports are dominated by biodiesel & wood (chip, pellet)- Potential biodiesel imports are not fully taken-up- Potential wood imports fully taken-up only when domestic wood is scarce
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Conclusions
- Imported biomass has been crucial to the development of bioenergy in the UK (by volume at least)
- Imported biomass must be viewed in an energy-wide context(it’s linked to the UK biomass sector
but capable of developing on its own)
- UK biomass if exploited would be competitive with imports at current prices. (cellulosic -> heat: waste -> AD)
- Even if UK biomass exploited, imports can be complementary
- Imports can reduce reliance on other renewables for RED
- Biodiesel imports dominate regardless
- But how sustainable can imports be at this scale?
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28
Thank you for your attention!
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