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NatCatSERVICE
The loss data base for natural catastrophes
Petra Löw
Natural catastrophes in Europe* 1980 – 2009Number of events
Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Meteorological events(Storm)
Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Nu
mb
er
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008*Countries defined by EEA
NatCatSERVICE
Natural catastrophes in Europe* 1980 – 2009Overall and insured losses
US
$bn
Overall losses (in 2009 values) Insured losses (in 2009 values)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008*Countries defined by EEA
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Meteorological events(Storm)
Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
3,500 Loss events3,500 Loss events 86,000 Fatalities86,000 Fatalities
Overall losses* US$ 375bn Overall losses* US$ 375bn Insured losses* US$ 105bnInsured losses* US$ 105bn
*in 2009 values *in Werten von 2009
Natural catastrophes in Europe* 1980 – 2009Percentage distribution worldwide
*in 2009 values
10%
40%34%
16% 4% 3%5%
88%
19%
27%
34%
20% 14%
54%
27%
5%
*Countries defined by EEA
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Continent Number of events Fatalities Overall losses US$ m
Insured losses US $ m
Africa 78 730 375 -
America 312 865 22.000 12.000
Asia 300 7.980 17.000 1.500
Australia/Oceania 76 770 2.070 950
Europe 129 940 12.500 6.000
14%
6%
29% 34%
9%
9%
Global natural catastrophes 2009Percentage distribution of events per continent
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
71%
Continent Number of events Fatalities Overall losses US$ m
Insured losses US $ m
Africa 78 730 375 -
America 312 865 22.000 12.000
Asia 300 7.980 17.000 1.500
Australia/Oceania 76 770 2.070 950
Europe 129 940 12.500 6.000
6%
3%
8%5%
7%
Global natural catastrophes 2009Percentage distribution of fatalities per continent
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
23%31%
40%
Continent Number of events Fatalities Overall losses US$ m
Insured losses US $ m
Africa 78 730 375 -
America 312 865 22.000 12.000
Asia 300 7.980 17.000 1.500
Australia/Oceania 76 770 2.070 950
Europe 129 940 12.500 6.000
1%
1%
4%
Global natural catastrophes 2009Percentage distribution of overall losses per continent
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
60%
28%
Continent Number of events Fatalities Overall losses US$ m
Insured losses US $ m
Africa 78 730 375 -
America 312 865 22.000 12.000
Asia 300 7.980 17.000 1.500
Australia/Oceania 76 770 2.070 950
Europe 129 940 12.500 6.000
5%
7%
Global natural catastrophes 2009Percentage distribution of insured losses per continent
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Definition - Breakdown into catastrophe categories
Catastrophe class Overall losses and/or fatalities
Loss profile 1980s* 1990s* 2000 – 2008*
0 Natural event No property damage - - - none
1 Small-scale loss event Small-scale property damage
- - - 1-9
2 Moderate loss event Moderate property and structural damage
- - - > 10
3 Severe catastrophe Severe property, infrastructure and structural damage
US$ >25m US$ > 40m US$ > 50m > 20
4 Major catastrophe Major property, infrastructure and structural damage
US$ > 85m US$ > 160m US$ > 200m > 100
5 Devastating catastrophe
Devastating losses within the affected region
US$ > 275m US$ > 400m US$ > 500m > 500
6 Great natural catastrophe „GREAT disaster“
Region’s ability to help itself clearly overtaxed, interregional/international assistance necessary, thousands of fatalities and/or hundreds of thousands homeless, substantial economic losses (UN definition). Insured losses reach exceptional orders of magnitude.
* Losses adjusted to the decade average.
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Natural catastrophes in Europe 2009Catastrophe category 0
Cat. Subevent
0 te: Tempest/Severe storm S, Brest; Gomel
0 bs: Blizzard/Snowstorm W, Sankt Petersburg
0 te: Tempest/Severe storm S, Cote d'Azur, Var, Embrun
0 wf: Wildfire NW, Liguria, La Spezia, Genova
0 ls: Landslide N, Trentino, South Tyrol, Brixen, Sterzing
0 wf: Wildfire W, Bergen, Schoorl
0 wf: Wildfire NE, N, Braganca, Quinta da Paiva, Braga, Viseu, Guarda, Oporto
Affected Area
28.8.2009 D: Wildfire Single Netherlands 3 blazes threatened buildings. Evacuated: 550.
18.-31.8.2009 D: Wildfires Single Portugal Several seats of forest-, brush fires. 240 km² of land affected.
5.-16.9.2009 D: Wildfire Single Italy 8 km² of forest burnt.
4.9.2009 C: Landslide Single Italy Mudslide. Main road affected, highway between Brixen and Sterzing 4 hours closed due to safety reasons. Traffic jam up to 20 km.
26.12.2009 B: Snowstorm Single Russian Federation (Europe) Heavy snowfall (30cm). Flights delayed. Rail-, traffic suspended.
23.10.2009 B: Severe storm Single France Heavy rain. 2 rivers burst their banks. Roads closed. Traffic disrupted. Evacuations.
29.12.2009 B: Severe storm Single Belarus High wind speeds, heavy snowfall. Power lines downed, >360 towns without electricty.
Period Event Ass. Type Description
NatCatSERVICE
Cat. category Number of events Cat. category Number of events
0 7
1 42 4 6
2 57 5 5
3 14 6 -
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Geo Risks Research DepartmentThe loss data base for natural catastrophes
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Year Development
1974 Systematic buildup of a global natural hazard archive
1990 D-Base application
1995 Fox-Pro application, with Oracle database
2008C# application based on Microsoft .NET 2.0 Frameworkswith Oracle database and SQL Server 2005 Reporting Services.
Geo Risks Research DepartmentThe loss data base for natural catastrophes
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Each year about 800 events are documented.
Year Number of data sets
0079 - 999 30
1000 - 1499 200
1500 - 1899 1 000
1900 - 1949 1 000
1950 - 1979 2 120
1980 - 2008 19 500
26,000 data sets
Number of data sets NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Access & User
Service
Methodology
& Definitions
Data
Munich Re NatCatSERVICEMore than data
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Expert Consultation
Harmonizing terminology of disaster perils
CRED
Participants
Regina Below CRED EM-Dat
Susanna Schwarz
Swiss Re sigma
Hajime Nakano ADRC GLIDE
Julio Serge UNDP DesInventar
Angelika WirtzPetra Löw
Munich Re NatCatSERVICE
Methodology NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Geophysical
Family
Meteorological
Hydrological
Climatological
Earthquake
Volcanic eruption
Mass movement dry
Earthquake (Ground shaking)
Fire following
Tsunami
Volcanic eruption
Subsidence
Rockfall
Landslide
Structure – peril families
Main event Sub Peril
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Storm
Tropical cyclone
Winter storm (extratropical cyclone)
Tempest/Severe storm
Hail storm
Lightning
Tornado
Local windstorm (orographic storm)
Sandstorm/Dust storm
Blizzard/Snowstorm
Structure – peril families
Geophysical
Family
Meteorological
Hydrological
Climatological
Main event Sub Peril
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Flood
Mass movement wet
General flood
Flash flood
Storm surge
Glacial lake outburst flood
Subsidence
Avalanche
Landslide
Structure – peril families
Geophysical
Family
Meteorological
Hydrological
Climatological
Main event Sub Peril
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Extreme temperature
Drought
Wildfire
Heat wave
Cold wave / frost
Extreme winter conditions
Drought
Wildfire
Unspecified
Structure – peril families
Geophysical
Family
Meteorological
Hydrological
Climatological
Main event Sub Peril
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Entry details: example Hurricane Ike NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
RegionDetailsDamages
Hurrikane Ike
RegionDetailsDamages
RegionDetailsDamages
RegionDetailsDamages
RegionDetailsDamages
RegionDetailsDamages
Multi-Region-Event
USA CubaTurks & Caicos
Dom. Rep. Haiti Bahamas
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Affected regionScientific detailsDamageAffected people
Affected regionScientific detailsDamageAffected people
Affected regionScientific detailsDamageAffected people
Entry details: example multi peril event
Typhoon
Flood Landslide Tornado
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Science Government, UN, EU, NGOs
News-AgenciesInsurance
Sources NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Source
No
Quality level 6 FURTHER RESEARCH
Yes
Sources & data quality I NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Source
No
Quality level 6 FURTHER RESEARCH
Yes
At least one source of first-class quality
• Information about losses: very good
1
• Information about losses: implausible
4
• Information about losses: not available• No event description
5
FURTHER RESEARCH
• Information about losses: not available• Event description:
plausible 2
Sources & data quality II NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Source
No
Quality level 6 FURTHER RESEARCH
Yes
At least one source of first-class quality Second class source
One source• Information about losses: very good
1
• Information about losses: implausible
4
• Information about losses: not available• No event description
5
FURTHER RESEARCH
• Information about losses: not available• Event description:
plausible 2
• Information about losses: available• Event description: plausible 3
• Information about losses: not available• Event description:
plausible 4
•Information about losses:
implausible 5 FURTHER RESEARCH
Sources & data quality III NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Source
No
Quality level 6 FURTHER RESEARCH
At least one source of third-class quality
• Information about losses: available• Event description:
plausible 2
• Information about damage: not available• Event description:
plausible 3
•Information about losses: implausible
4
• Information about losses: available• Event description:
detailed 3
• Information about losses: not available• Event description:
available 5 FURTHER RESEARCH
• Information about losses: not available• No event description
6 FURTHER RESEARCH
Yes
At least one source of first-class quality Second class source
One source Several Sources• Information about losses: very good
1
• Information about losses: implausible
4
• Information about losses: not available• No event description
5
FURTHER RESEARCH
• Information about losses: not available• Event description:
plausible 2
• Information about losses: available• Event description: plausible 3
• Information about losses: not available• Event description:
plausible 4
•Information about losses:
implausible 5 FURTHER RESEARCH
Sources & data quality IV NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Entry details: example Hurrican Ike NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
30/o09/2008
Insured losses
Munich Re shareAdditional loss information
Overall losses
Example: Hurrican Ike - Damages NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
ScienceGeneral public
Political committees
Analysts, investors
Clients
Staff
NatCatSERVICE
Access & User NatCatSERVICE
Preconditions for a high quality data base
Money neutrality
Long-term staff, expercience
Independance (of any internal / external influence)
Neutrality - from company‘s philosophy (freedom to research)
Consistency – stable harbour
Clear standards and methodology
Access to a wide group of experts in different disciplines
Access to original and first-class sources
NatCatSERVICE
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Thank you for your attention
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)
Meteorological events (Storm)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, wildfire)
Selection of significant natural catastrophes (see table)
200 Global natural catastrophes
4
5
3
12
7
8
6
Haiti, EQ, 225,000 deaths
Chile, EQ, est. 8bn - 30bn US$ Hailstorm, Melbourne,
730m US$ insured
Winter damage Florida, 30 % of crops destroyed
Natural Catastrophes January-March 2010World map
NatCatSERVICE
3,900 Loss events3,900 Loss events 91,600 Fatalities91,600 Fatalities
Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Meteorological events(Storm)
Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2010
NatCatSERVICE
Natural catastrophes 1980 – 2009Percentage distribution ordered by type of event
Earthquake8%
Volcano1%
Mass movement dry (ls, ro, su)
1%
Blizzard / Snowstorm
2% Hailstorm4%
Local windstorm5%
Tempest/Severe storm21%
Tornado3%Winter storm
6%
Flash flood9%
Flood14%
Mass movement wet (av, ls, ro)
11%
Drought2%
Heat wave1%
Wildfire3%
Winter damage10%
Earthquake2%
Tempest/Severe storm
1%
Winter storm1%
Flash flood1%
Flood1%
Mass movement wet (av, ls, ro)
1%
Drought43%
Heat wave47%
Wildfire2%
Overall losses* US$ 450bn Overall losses* US$ 450bn Insured losses* US$ 140bnInsured losses* US$ 140bn
Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Meteorological events(Storm)
Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2010
NatCatSERVICE
Natural catastrophes 1980 – 2009Percentage distribution ordered by type of event
Earthquake12%
Mass movement dry (ls, ro, su)
3%
Blizzard / Snowstorm
1%
Hailstorm2%
Local windstorm1%
Tempest/Severe storm
4%
Winter storm25%
Flash flood2%
Flood27%
Mass movement wet (av, ls, ro)
1%
Drought11%
Heat wave5%
Wildfire3% Winter damage
2%Earthquake
1%
Mass movement dry (ls, ro, su)
10%
Blizzard / Snowstorm
2%Hailstorm
4%
Local wind storm1%
Tempest/Severe storm
7%
Winter storm48%
Flash flood2%
Flood20%
Wildfire4%
* in 2009 values * in 2009 values
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2010
NatCatSERVICE
Significant natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 200910 costliest natural catastrophes ordered by overall losses
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2010
Insured losses
12-20.8.2002 Floods, severe storms
Germany. Austria. Czech Republic. Hungary. Moldova. Switzerland. Slovakia
3,400 40
July-August 2003 Heat wave, drought France. Germany. Italy. Portugal. Romania. Spain. United Kingdom
20 70,000
23.11.1980 Earthquake Italy: Irpinia, Basilicata, Potenza, Salerno, Benevento, Naples
40 2,900
26.12.1999 Winter Storm Lothar France. Germany. Switzerland. Belgium. Austria 5,900 110
18-20.1.2007 Winter Storm Kyrill United Kingdom. Germany. France. Netherlands. Belgium. Denmark. Austria
5,800 50
4-6.11.1994 Floods, flash floods Italy: Piedmont; Lombardy, Liguria, Valle d'Aosta, Emilia
65 70
13-20.10.2000 Floods, landslides Italy: Valle d'Aosta; Piedmont; Lombardy, Emilia Romagna. Switzerland: Valais, Ticino. France
470 40
25-26.1.1990 Winter Storm Daria Belgium. Denmark. France. Germany. Ireland. Netherlands. Sweden. United Kingdom
5,100 90
26.9.1997 Earthquakes Italy: Umbria, Marche esp. Assisi, Collecurti, Cesi, Nocera Umbra, Foligno, Perugia
6 10
5.7-10.8.1997 Floods Poland. Czech Republic. Slovakia. Germany. Austria.
795 1205,900
16,500
13,800
11,800
11,500
10,000
9,300
8,500
6,850
6,000
Period Event Affected AreaOverall losses
FatalitiesUS$ m, original values
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2010
NatCatSERVICE
Significant natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 200910 costliest natural catastrophes ordered by insured losses
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2010
Insured losses
26.12.1999 Winter Storm Lothar France. Germany. Switzerland. Belgium. Austria 5,900 110
18-20.1.2007 Winter Storm Kyrill United Kingdom. Germany. France. Netherlands. Belgium. Denmark. Austria
5,800 50
25-26.1.1990 Winter Storm Daria Belgium. Denmark. France. Germany. Ireland. Netherlands. Sweden. United Kingdom
5,100 90
12-20.8.2002 Floods, severe storms
Germany. Austria. Czech Republic. Hungary. Moldova. Switzerland. Slovakia
3,400 40
15-16.10.1987 Winter storm France. Norway. Spain. United Kingdom 3,100 20
20-23.7.2007 Floods United Kingdom: England, Worcestershire; Oxfordshire; Gloucestershire. Wales
3,000 1
23-25.1.2009 Winter Storm Klaus France. Spain. Italy 3,000 26
25-30.6.2007 Floods, severe storms
United Kingdom: Yorkshire, Hull, Humberside; Sheffield; Worcestershire; Rotherham, Wakefield
3,000 5
7-9.1.2005 Winter Storm Erwin (Gudrun)
Denmark. Estonia. Finland. Germany. Lithuania. Norway. Sweden. United Kingdom
2,600 20
27-28.12.1999 Winter Storm Martin France. Spain. Switzerland 2,500 304,100
11,500
10,000
6,850
16,500
3,900
4,000
5,100
4,000
5,800
Period Event Affected AreaOverall losses
FatalitiesUS$ m, original values
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2010
NatCatSERVICE
Significant natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2009 10 deadliest natural catastrophes
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2010
Insured losses
July-August 2003 Heat wave, drought France. Germany. Italy. Portugal. Romania. Spain. United Kingdom
20 70,000
23.11.1980 Earthquake Italy: Irpinia, Basilicata, Potenza, Salerno, Benevento, Naples
40 2,900
July 2006 Heat wave France. Germany. Italy. Portugal. Romania. Spain. United Kingdom
2,080
20-31.7.1987 Heat wave Greece: Entire country, esp. Attica, Athens 2,000
16.1-5.2.2006 Cold wave Bulgaria. Belarus. Croatia. Czech Republic. Estonia. Germany. Greece. Italy. Latvia. Lithuania
790
July 1983 Heat wave France: Marseille 500
9.-10.6.1984 Tornadoes Russian Federation: Gorkiy, Ivanovo, Kostroma, Yaroslavl, Kalinin areas
400
October 2001-March 2002
Cold wave Russian Federation: Moscow, Altai, Norilsk, Leningrad, Krasnodar
380
19.7.1985 Flash flood, dam burst
Italy: Stava, Tesero, Cavalese 300
16.11-18.12.1998 Cold wave Romania. Poland. Latvia. Russia. Moldova. Hungary. Bulgaria. France. Italy. Germany
300
13,800
11,800
1,400
15
Period Event Affected AreaOverall losses
FatalitiesUS$ m, original values
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Significant natural catastrophes (selection)
Great natural catastrophes: 2009 no event met the requirement “Great
naturalcatastrophe”
2009: 850 natural catastrophesGeophysical events(Earthquakes, tsunami, volcanic eruption)
Meteorological events(Storm)Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)
Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Natural catastrophes 2009Worldmap
NatCatSERVICE
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
• Global version available in:
German, English, French, Italian, Spanish
• US version (Engl.)• Asia version (Engl.,Chinese)• Australia/Oceania version (Engl.)
Annual publication since 1994 Edition
Topics Geo – Review of the year of natural catastrophes
© 2010 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2010
Download-Center
There are 50 documents available in each language version
NatCatSERVICE
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Sources & data quality V
Data quality 1 - 6
NatCatSERVICE
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