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EMCDDA Conference: EMCDDA Conference: 'Identifying Europe's information needs for effective drug policy' 'Identifying Europe's information needs for effective drug policy'
'What is happening to heroin? 'What is happening to heroin? Methodological challenges in understanding Methodological challenges in understanding
trends in heroin production and supply‘trends in heroin production and supply‘
ByByDr. Thomas Pietschmann Dr. Thomas Pietschmann
Policy Analysis and Research BranchPolicy Analysis and Research BranchUNODCUNODC
Lisbon, 6-8 May 2009Lisbon, 6-8 May 2009
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28,500
160,000
130,300
27,70021,50032,800
29,625
26,837
1,5002,500
157,000
63,674
104,000
165,000
193,000
50,800 201,000
142,100
281,600
235,700
151,500
237,800
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Hec
tare
s
Myanmar Lao PDR Afghanistan Rest of the world Total Trend
Global opium poppy cultivation, 1990-2008
Source: UNODC, 2008 World Drug Report, June 2008 and UNODC Surveys .
-15%*
* Preliminary estimates
Comparisons:Comparisons: Greater London: 157,900 ha Greater London: 157,900 ha New York City: 95,300 ha New York City: 95,300 ha Berlin: 89,200 ha Berlin: 89,200 ha Vienna: 41,500 haVienna: 41,500 haLisbon: City: 8,480 ha Lisbon: City: 8,480 ha Metro: Metro: 295,740 ha 295,740 ha
Mauritius: Mauritius: 204,000 ha 204,000 haComoros: 186,200 haComoros: 186,200 haHong Kong: 109,500 haHong Kong: 109,500 haBahrain: Bahrain: 71,600 ha 71,600 haMalta: 31,600 haMalta: 31,600 ha
Montenegro: 1,381,200 haMontenegro: 1,381,200 haJamaica: 1,099,100 haJamaica: 1,099,100 haSingapore: Singapore: 682,700 ha682,700 ha Brunei Darussalam: Brunei Darussalam: 576,500 ha576,500 haCape Verde: Cape Verde: 403,600 ha403,600 haLuxembourg: Luxembourg: 258,600 ha 258,600 ha
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Global illicit opium production, 1990-2008
7,700
3,416
8,200
6,100
4,100
2,693
4,565
410
1,583
1,303
312
315
460
895
6,610
4,3464,691 4,620
1,630
8,870
5,7645,620
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,00019
90
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Met
ric
tons
Afghanistan Myanmar Lao PDR Rest of the world Total
Sources: UNODC, 2008 World Drug Report and UNODC 2008 Opium Surveys in Afghanistan, Myanmar, Laos.
-6%*
* Preliminary estimates.
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Survey methodology
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Methodology:
Sampling approach combines analysis of satellite images and extensive field work
Poppy cultivation estimate: IKONOS satellite images (4 m resolution in 2004; 1 m resolution in 2008)
Sampling frame: 23 Landsat 7 satellite images (30 m resolution)
Afghanistan Opium Survey: ground surveys 1994-2001; satellite/ground surveys 2002-2008
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Irrigated agricultural land
4 km
River
Opium fields(artificialcolor)
Low density area in Mihtarlam district, Laghman Province (4 m resolution satellite image IKONOS)
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OPIUM SURVEYOPIUM SURVEYSatellite surveySatellite survey: : • 21 provinces covered (up from 19 provinces in 2006), out of 3421 provinces covered (up from 19 provinces in 2006), out of 34• 118 survey blocks of 10 km x 10 km covered with total of 236 images118 survey blocks of 10 km x 10 km covered with total of 236 images• Very high resolution satellite images used (IKONOS); 1 m resolutionVery high resolution satellite images used (IKONOS); 1 m resolution
Village surveyVillage survey::• All 34 provinces coveredAll 34 provinces covered• 134 local field surveyors134 local field surveyors• 1,529 villages visited (4.9% of all villages)1,529 villages visited (4.9% of all villages)• 1,529 village headmen and 3,050 farmers interviewed (socio-economic)1,529 village headmen and 3,050 farmers interviewed (socio-economic)• Basis for poppy cultivation estimate for 13 provinces not covered by satellite Basis for poppy cultivation estimate for 13 provinces not covered by satellite imagery imagery
ERADICATION VERIFICATION SURVEYERADICATION VERIFICATION SURVEY::• All 17 provinces with reported Governor-led eradication coveredAll 17 provinces with reported Governor-led eradication covered• 131 eradication verifiers and 27 eradication survey coordinators131 eradication verifiers and 27 eradication survey coordinators
Survey methodology (2008)
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Sampling frame and selected cells for satellite survey, 2008Sampling frame Sampling frame (arable land): (arable land):
based on Landsat-7 based on Landsat-7 images (2002/03) and images (2002/03) and Landsat-7 EMT 2006 Landsat-7 EMT 2006
Coverage: Coverage:
7% of arable land in 21 provinces7% of arable land in 21 provinces
Opium poppy Opium poppy identification: identification:
based on 236 high-based on 236 high-resolution (1m) resolution (1m) satellite images satellite images
(IKONOS; 10*10 km(IKONOS; 10*10 km22) ) for 118 locations for 118 locations
covering 21 covering 21 provincesprovinces
Higher proportions in key provinces:Higher proportions in key provinces:Nangarhar: 25%Nangarhar: 25%Nimroz: 18%Nimroz: 18%Kandahar: 13%Kandahar: 13%Helmand: 16%Helmand: 16%
Accuracy of Accuracy of identification: identification:
95% - ground truthing 95% - ground truthing of 3560 fieldsof 3560 fields
Result: Result: 157,000 ha157,000 ha
90% probability: 130,000 ha - 190,000 ha
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Village sampling frame and selected villages, 2008Sampling frame (all Sampling frame (all
villages): villages): 31,23031,230
Selected villages: Selected villages: 1,529 (4.9%)1,529 (4.9%)
in 357 districtsin 357 districts
Interviews: Interviews: 3,050 farmers and 3,050 farmers and
1,529 headmen1,529 headmenon various socio-on various socio-economic issues economic issues
by 134 field by 134 field surveyors and surveyors and
ground survey in ground survey in 13 provinces13 provinces
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29,0
00
25,0
00
32,0
00
34,0
00 54,0
00
57,0
00
58,0
00
64,0
00
91,0
00
82,0
00
8,00
0
74,0
00
80,0
00
131,
000
104,
000
165,
000 19
3,00
0
157,
000
71,0
00
58,0
00
49,0
00
51,0
00
41,0
00
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
he
cta
res
Opium poppy cultivation trends in Afghanistan, 1986-2009Opium poppy cultivation trends in Afghanistan, 1986-2009
Soviet period Warlord period Taliban period new Afghan Govt.
?
-19%
Sources: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008 and UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment, January 2009.
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2006
2007 2008
Increase in poppy free provinces 2006-2008
6 provinces in 2006 13 ………….... 200718 ……………. 2008
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36,6
21
4,09
5
8,31
2 20,5
81
1,15
1
4,73
3
106
337
500
310
16,5
93
9,00
9 15,3
36
4,85
3
200
13,7
89 25,0
40
19,2
67
4,88
2
766
10,5
31 19,5
10
19,8
20 28,6
19
22,0
66
48,3
69
101,
900
133,
546
132,
760
46,1
47
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
hect
ares
Eastern Region Central Region North-Eastern Region
Northern Region Western Region Southern Region
Regional dynamics of opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan (ha), 2004-2008
Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008
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98% 98% in 7 in 7
provinces of provinces of south & south & south-south-
western western AfghanistanAfghanistan
Afghanistan – opium poppy cultivation in 2008
Area under poppy cultivation:
157,000 ha
Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008
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Opium poppy cultivation trends in 2009 (Rapid Assessment)
Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment, January 2009
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Strong positive correlation
between security and non-cultivation of opium in 2009
Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment, January 2009
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Opium, morphine and heroin production
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Yield SurveyYield measurement (data for 2008): Yield measurement (data for 2008):
17,541 capsules from 1,707 plots from 569 fieldsin 198 villages
Yield: 42.5 kg/ha in 2007 90% CI: 41.5-43.5 kg/ha
48.8 kg/ha in 2008 90% CI: 47.1-50.4 kg/ha
Yield (Y): based on non-rectangular hyperbola:VC: Mature poppy capsule volume (cm3/m2)
Yield formula (non-rectangular hyperbola)
0102030405060
0 500 1000 1500mature capsule volume (cm3 / m2)
Dry
opi
um y
ield
(k
g / h
a)
Total productionTotal production: 8,200 tons in 2007 90% CI: 7,530-8,960 tons 7,700 tons in 2008 90% CI: 6,330-9,310 tons
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160
6,10
0
8,20
0
7,70
0
200
350
450
488
275
225
200
875
1,12
0
1,20
0
1,60
0
2,00
0
2,00
0
2,30
0
3,4
00
2,30
0
2,20
0 2,80
0
2,70
0
4,60
0
3,30
0
3,40
0
3,60
0 4,20
0
4,10
0
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
met
ric
ton
s
Afghanistan opium production, 1980-2009
-6%
Soviet period Warlord period Taliban period new Afghan Govt.
?
Sources: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008 and UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment, January 2009.
,
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60% (= 4,438 tons of opium) refined in Afghanistan
required: some 11,000 tons of chemicals
incl. 1,200 tons of acetic anhydride(range: 630–2,520 tons of acetic anhydride)
Manufacturing of Afghan morphine/heroin in 2008
Opium produced: 7,676 tonsless seizures: 123 tons less consumption: 156 tons----------------------------------------------------Available for export: 7,397 tons
630 tons of morphine / heroin
for export
7:1 ratio
Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008
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Laboratories, markets, border crossings, 2008
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Opiate prices
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Opium production and fresh farm-gate prices, 1997-2008
2,804 2,693
4,565
3,278
185
3,4003,600
4,200 4,100
6,100
8,200
7,700
34 3340
28
301
250
283
92102
9486
70
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
opiu
m p
rodu
ctio
n in
met
ric
tons
0
100
200
300
fres
h fa
rmga
te o
pium
pri
ce
in U
S$/k
g at
har
vest
tim
e
Prices
Production
Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008
Indication of stocks
Price information collected from some 3,000 farmers in some 1,500 villages across the country
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Dry opium prices at trader level in Nangarhar and Kandahar, March 1997-March 2009
$102
$73
July 2000 poppy ban announced
Sept 11, 2001 Jan 02: New poppy ban
Aug 02: renewal of poppy ban
Autumn 2004; Fear of large-scale eradication
Growing opium production in southern Afghanistan (2005, 2006, 2007; stable in 2008); rising stocks, 2006-08
2005: Eastern Afghanistan: reductions of opium production
Growing opium harvests in 2002, 2003 and 2004
Start of air strikes
1999 peak production in 1990s
2006/2007: Eastern Afghanistan: rise in opium production
Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Price Monitoring, March 2009 and previous years
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Average dry opium prices in Afghanistan, October 2004-March 2007
-17%-15%
-23%
-1%
Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Price Monitoring, March 2009 and previous years
Information collected each month from some 200 farmers and some 190 traders in 15 provinces (out of 34 provinces)
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Dry opium prices in Afghanistan, January 2005 - March 2009 Trend towards
“unification” of Afghan opium market
Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Price Monitoring, March 2009 and previous years
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Gross income per hectare of opium poppy / wheat, 2003-2008
Average crop production costs in 2008Opium*: 45% of farmgate valueWheat: 20% of farmgate value Average net income: Opium: $ 2,585 per ha
Wheat: $ 1,300 per ha Ratio (opium : wheat) 2 : 1
Ratio 27 : 1
Ratio 9.5 : 1
Ratio 3 : 1
Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008
* Costs for seeds, ploughing, weeding, fertilizers, lancing & opium collection
- 27 -UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Winter Assessment, January 2009.
Prices of opium and foods grains in Afghanistan in January 2008 and January 2009
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Dry opium and heroin prices in Afghanistan, January 2006 - March 2009 3,203
2,203
157
90
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
her
oin
pri
ce in
US
$ p
er k
g
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
opiu
m p
rice
in U
S$
per
kg
Afghanistan heroin (left-scale) Afghanistan opium (right scale)
January 2006 - March 2009:Heroin (Afg.) - 31% ($2,203) Opium: -43%
Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Price Monitoring, March 2009 and previous years
Herat: - 59% ($1,602)Kandahar: - 47% ($ 2,320)Takhar: - 29% ($ 2,097)Nangarhar: - 23% ($ 1,817)Badakshan: - 13% ($ 2,383)Balkh: + 15% ($ 3,000)Peshawar (Pak.) - 7% ($ 3,101)
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Export routes and value in 2008 - best estimates CENTRAL ASIA
15%; range 5%-22%121 tons of heroin (19%; 8%-25%)293 tons of opium (10%; 1%-18%)
(US$ 0.5 bn)
PAKISTAN 27%; range 18%-35%
258 tons morphine & heroin (41%; 28%-51%)202 tons opium (7%; 3%-11%)
(US$ 0.9 bn)
AFGHANISTAN’S EXPORTS
630 tons of morphine & heroin2,960 tons of opium
(US$ 3.4 bn)(Range: $2.7–$4.3 bn)
IRAN 57%; range 48%-65%
246 tons of morphine & heroin (39%; 32%-44%)2,464 tons of opium (83%; 71%-96%)
(US$ 2.0 bn)
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Trafficking from Afghanistan to Europe, 2008
Sources: UNODC, 2008 Afghanistan Opium Survey, UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data / DELTA, UNODC, Individual Drug Seizures database.
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0000122336689101213141616182028486274808493110118121127129130130135150169178189227312326431484501515519522548
1,0031,0091,0441,0741,165
1,5501,900
2,4472,938
4,75910,057
13,39713,863
25,58015,8992,87413,2285,0384,5932,9332,440
9,681
169
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
IcelandMoldova, Rep.
ArmeniaFinlandCyprusLatvia
SlovakiaBelarus
MontenegroEstonia
LithuaniaNorway
LuxembourgBosnia &
AzerbaijanKenya
SwedenGeorgia
MaltaCanada
Czech Rep.South Africa
DenmarkP ortugalCroatia
HungaryScotlandSlovenia
SyriaAustriaNigeriaAlbania
Tanzania, U.R.Romania
United Arab EmiratesSwitzerland
Macedonia, FYRIreland
P olandYemen
SpainGreece
TurkmenistanKyrgyzstan
SerbiaUzbekistan
UkraineNetherlandsKazakhstan
BelgiumEngland and Wales*
IndiaFrance
GermanyBulgaria
TajikistanItaly
USARussian Federation
ChinaAfghanistan
TurkeyP akistan
Iran
kilograms
heroin morphine
* Data refer to 2006
Heroin/morphine seizures in 2007 along main trafficking routes to Europe
2,142.1
13,863
25,580
13,397
3,3303,485 7,677
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
'Balkan route' Northern (Silk)Route)
West and CentralEurope
kilo
gram
s
West and CentralEurope
East Europe (otherC.I.S.)
Central Asia
Other South-EastEurope
Turkey
Iran
Pakistan
Heroin and morphine seizures in 2007 in countries along the main Afghan Heroin and morphine seizures in 2007 in countries along the main Afghan opiate routes to Europe and to other main destination countriesopiate routes to Europe and to other main destination countries
79%79%
10%10% 11%11%
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Heroin and morphine seizures in West and Central Europe and along the extended ‘Balkan route’, 1995-2007
6,255 6,381 6,557 6,514 7,92711,841 10,644 9,629 8,481 9,288 8,012 7,595 7,364
407 384 479 774365
2,2651,792
931 1,644 1,8921,342 1,790 1,9894,396 5,579 4,173 5,406 4,303
8,8384,796 10,472
5,714
13,577
8,723 10,842 13,39713,121 11,23520,936
25,186
26,953
12,669 16,390
17,593
12,493
21,27225,580
10,7605,872
6,156
3,364
4,974
12,553
8,756
12,710
24,744
24,341
35,47713,863
28,794 13,498
34,141
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
kilo
gram
s
West & Central Europe Other South-East Europe excl. Turkey Turkey Iran Pakistan Trend
IRAN: Heroin seizures: 13.3 tons in 2007;19.8 tons in 2008 (Source: Drug Control Headquarters)
TURKEY: Heroin seizures: 9.1 tons in 2007; 10.3 tons in 2008(Source: Ministry of Interior)
Source: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data.
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Heroin and morphine seizures along the Northern Route (Silk Route), 1995-2007
Source: UNODC, Annual Reports Questionnaire Data.
18 26
2,1261,014 1,360
3,237
5,144 4,707
6,825 6,309
3,870 3,651 3,330
10 63
30
458698
986
1,298844
3,256 3,909
4,681
2,449 2,938
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
kilo
gram
s
Central Asia Russian Federation Other East Europe (C.I.S.) Trend
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Additional information requirements:• More systematic and detailed information on transformation ratios of
opium to morphine and heroin (improved cooperation with Afghan authorities, DEA, and international coalition forces in Afghanistan);
• Better information on stocks and on trafficking flows (UNODC in cooperation with national authorities);
• Systematic price and purity monitoring in countries around Afghanistan (Pakistan, Iran, Central Asia) – planned to be done under the auspices of UNODC;
• Systematic price and purity monitoring along main trafficking routes to Europe (Turkey, Balkan countries, key EU consumer countries) – to be undertaken by EMCDDA in cooperation with UNODC?
• Improvements of Member States (including European Member States) reporting of individual drug seizures (as required under the international drug conventions) and sharing of strategic intelligence information ; (cooperation with WCO and Interpol as well as with Europol/EMCDDA);
• Updated information on extent of heroin use and on per capita consumption in consumer countries (current cooperation between UNODC and the European Centre for Social Welfare Policy and Research – to be extended to EMCDDA?)
- 35 -
For more information:http://www.unodc.org
/
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
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