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Zuora CFO Roundtable - Vancouver | Dec 9
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Transcript of Zuora CFO Roundtable - Vancouver | Dec 9
CFO RoundtableVancouverDecember 9th, 2015
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Topics for Today
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
• Current Market Trends and Multiples• Sales Modeling and Efficiency• Business Intelligence & Analytics ---
tools, team, best practices• Budget Process• Headcount – churn and hiring
Top of News
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Day's Range: 11.90 - 12.24
52wk Range: 9.00 - 14.78
Volume: 1,075,743
Avg Vol (3m): 6,912,410
Market Cap: 3.87B
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): -1.13
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)
Lower development, support and maintenance
costs
Predictability allows longer-term thinking
No quarter-end pricing games
Oh yeah, investors give you a higher
valuation
Downside: longer ramp to scale from lack
of up front license fee
At scale, subscription models are
superior in every aspect
“Ultimate Software will never make money.”
- Competitor CEO in 2002 … just as ULTI stock price was on the cusp of a 12 year, 14-fold
advance
#CFOsummit
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
INTROSubscription goes mainstream…
• 30-50 subscription software IPO’s over the next two years seems reasonable.
• Hottest areas:• Vertical SaaS• Security/Systems Software• Analytics• Next Generation Marketing
• Caution:• High valuations allow features
to think they’re companies.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2010 Today
Number of Public Saas Companies
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
• Bookings / New ARR• Gross Customer Churn• Mix of S&M spend that is growth
oriented
• New ARR = forward year increase in subscription revenue + gross dollars churned in current year
• Assume all S&M spend is driving new ARR• S&M Efficiency = $ S&M Spend / $ New
ARR• Range of Public SaaS Companies: $0.67 -
$2.30
DATA WE DON’T GET HOW WE THINK ABOUT IT
SLIDE HEADERS&M Efficiency: a challenge for public investors
Conclusion: the trend line is up
2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016EAverage S&M / $ARR $0.99 $1.02 $1.18 $1.27 $1.40Based on Canaccord Genuity analysis of the 30 largest SaaS companies; leverages SEC filings, Capital IQ estimates, and Canaccord Genuity estimates
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
• Bookings / New ARR• Gross Customer Churn• Mix of S&M spend that is growth
oriented
• New ARR = forward year increase in subscription revenue + gross dollars churned in current year
• Assume all S&M spend is driving new ARR• S&M Efficiency = $ S&M Spend / $ New
ARR• Range of Public SaaS Companies: $0.67 -
$2.30
DATA WE DON’T GET HOW WE THINK ABOUT IT
SLIDE HEADERS&M Efficiency: CAC Data points
Conclusion: the trend line is up
2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016EAverage S&M / $ARR $0.99 $1.02 $1.18 $1.27 $1.40Based on Canaccord Genuity analysis of the 30 largest SaaS companies; leverages SEC filings, Capital IQ estimates, and Canaccord Genuity estimates
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
S&M Efficiency
Best in Class 2015EVeeva $0.67Descartes $0.76Q2 Holdings $0.80Ultimate Software $0.94Constant Contact $0.95Analysis based on SEC filings, Capital IQ estimates, and Canaccord Genuity estimates
Best in class
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
The level to which operating margins asymptotically approach if you were to cull all growth spend
2014A 2015E 2016ESubscription Services Revenue $5,014 $6,055 $7,295
Growth 31% 21% 20%Subscription Gross Margin 83.4% 83.7% 84.5%
Subscription Gross Proft $4,182 $5,068 $6,164
R&D Expense (672) (819) (997)G&A Expense (577) (672) (780)
Recurring Gross Profit $2,933 $3,577 $4,388Recurring Profit Margin 58.5% 59.1% 60.1%
* Based on Canaccord Genuity projections
Salesforce.com: Top of the Pack and Improving
C2015E Sub Rev
Recurring Profit Margin
1 CRM 6,055 3,577 59.1%2 N 599 347 57.9%3 PAYC 201 113 56.2%4 CSOD 306 165 54.1%5 NOW 830 428 51.5%6 VEEV 308 158 51.2%7 LOCK 560 279 49.8%8 SPSC 142 69 48.3%9 MKTO 182 87 48.1%
10 OPWR 133 64 48.0%11 CVT 173 83 47.7%12 ULTI 515 242 47.0%13 CTCT 374 169 45.3%14 HUBS 155 70 45.2%15 SQI 102 45 43.8%
Recurring Proft Margin
Analysis based on SEC filings, Capital IQ consensus, and Canaccord Genuity estimates
Recurring Profit Margin
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Starts with Gross Margin
Analysis based on SEC filings, Capital IQ estimates, and Canaccord Genuity estimates
Best in class
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
INTRORetention: most powerful lever to LTV
Today, Salesforce.com’s gross churn is about 10%...
What if it improved to 7%?Salesforce.com
Annual Gross Churn Rate: 10% Implied Customer Life (years): 10.02012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E
Subscription Services Revenue $2,869 $3,825 $5,014 $6,055 $7,295Growth 35% 33% 31% 21% 20%
Subscription Gross Margin 85.5% 84.2% 83.4% 83.7% 84.5%Subscription Gross Proft $2,453 $3,220 $4,182 $5,068 $6,164
R&D Expense (353) (516) (672) (819) (997)G&A Expense (364) (505) (577) (672) (780)
Recurring Gross Profit $1,736 $2,199 $2,933 $3,577 $4,388Recurring Profit Margin 60.5% 57.5% 58.5% 59.1% 60.1%
New ARR Approximation $1,243 $1,572 $1,543 $1,846 $2,189S&M Expense (1,404) (1,872) (2,406) (2,858) (3,475)
Cost / $ARR (CAC) $1.13 $1.19 $1.56 $1.55 $1.59
LTV / $ARR $6.05 $5.75 $5.85 $5.91 $6.01LTV / CAC 5.4x 4.8x 3.8x 3.8x 3.8x
Salesforce.comAnnual Gross Churn Rate: 7% Implied Customer Life (years): 14.3
2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016ESubscription Services Revenue $2,869 $3,825 $5,014 $6,205 $7,481
Growth 35% 33% 31% 24% 21%Subscription Gross Margin 85.5% 84.2% 83.4% 83.7% 84.5%
Subscription Gross Proft $2,453 $3,220 $4,182 $5,194 $6,322
R&D Expense (353) (516) (672) (819) (997)G&A Expense (364) (505) (577) (672) (780)
Recurring Gross Profit $1,736 $2,199 $2,933 $3,703 $4,545Recurring Profit Margin 60.5% 57.5% 58.5% 59.7% 60.8%
New ARR Approximation $1,157 $1,457 $1,543 $1,710 $2,021S&M Expense (1,404) (1,872) (2,406) (2,858) (3,475)
Cost / $ARR (CAC) $1.21 $1.29 $1.56 $1.67 $1.72
LTV / $ARR $8.64 $8.21 $8.36 $8.53 $8.68LTV / CAC 7.1x 6.4x 5.4x 5.1x 5.0x
Note: we estimate that a 3% improvement in retention could drive a ~16% increase in C2015 operating profit – an incremental $150M at subscription GMs
Analysis based on SEC filings, Capital IQ consensus, and Canaccord Genuity estimates
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
It’s no wonder that investors value net dollar retention.• Most public companies don’t provide gross
customer retention• Instead, they give net dollar retention,
which is inclusive of upsell
TickerDollar-Based
Retention1 VEEV 138%2 BOX 126%3 NOW 125%4 HDP 125%5 QTWO 122%6 ZEN 120%7 NEWR 120%8 ULTI 110%9 PAYC 110%
10 MKTO 109%
VEEV
BOX NOWHDP
QTWOZEN NEWR
ULTI PAYCMKTO
WK CSLT
AMBR DWRE
OPWR
ECOM
FIVN
RNGCVTMRIN
SQI BNFT
CSOD SPSC HUBS
ILCRM
LOCK
CARB
LOGM
CTCT
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
1.0x 3.0x 5.0x 7.0x 9.0x 11.0x
Dolla
r Bas
ed R
eten
tion
EV/C2015E Revenues
DBR is based on most recently available publicly stated information
Valuation based on Capital IQ consensus and Canaccord Genuity estimates
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Value of Customer Success
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
• In March 2014, investors transitioned
from GAAP to GARP– That means from “Growth at any Price”
to “Growth at a Reasonable Price”
• A quick trick we like to use: Revenue Growth + FCF Margin
– Gold, Silver, Bronze: 50%, 40%, 30%– Change in G+M is an important
indicator as well Many trending down as growth rates
decelerate faster than margins ramp
An Easy Screen:
growth + margin
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Acquire• How do you model• How do you compensate
• How do you drive efficiency in your sales org
• Accelerate, digest or pull back
77%of respondents sell primarily through
a direct sales approach
52%use a self service model
65%offer their prospects a free
trial period 20%However, only 47% said
less than 20% convert from free trial to customer
Acquire: Selling Approach
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Acquire: Marketing Vs. Sales Costs
Industry Verticals31%
Customer Rev26%
#Employees21%
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Acquire: Bookings growth 29% < 20%29% 20 – 60%17% 60 –
100%25% > 100%
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Acquire: Revenue growth
29% 20 – 60%17% 60 –
100%25% > 100%
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Acquire: Revenue growth by size of Company
29% 20 – 60%17% 60 –
100%25% > 100%
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Acquire: Revenue growth by GTM Strategy
29% 20 – 60%17% 60 –
100%25% > 100%
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
AcquireWhat percentage of your total sales opportunities close?
1-2% 3-5% 6-10%
>10%
5%
37%
21%
36%
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Acquire: How to model ramp?
30 days 60 days 90 days > 4 mos21% 24% 41% 14%
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Acquire: How to model sales cycle
10 days
4%30
days16%
60 days
32%120 days
29%
19%@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Acquire: How to model quota attainment
> 40 %
12% 10%
40 – 60%
39%
60 – 80%
31%
80 – 100%
7%
> 100%
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Acquire: What’s your over-assign
100Min quota on the
street
35% >$90MEXPECT36% $80-90MEXPECT25% $70-80MEXPECT2% $50-70MEXPECT2% <
$50MEXPECT
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
ACQUIRE: What is OTE to quota?16% < 150k26% < 200k35% < 250k13% < 300k10% > 300k
$1M
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Acquire: What’s your quota based on?
19%
18%
47%
15%
MRRTCVACVOther
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Acquire: What are your commission rates?
9% 5%35% 6-
10%37% 11 - 15% 12% 20%
CHEAPSKATES
THE NORM
THE NORM
BREAKING THE BANK
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
42%
51%
7%Who Manages Upsells?
Customer Success Team
Sales Reps
Other
35%
65%
Do you pay for results?
noyes
Expand
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Expand: Upsells as a % of ACV
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Expand: Top Growers Rely on Upsell
@tylersloat
#CFOsummit
Thank you.