Zoom Charts - Yardeni Research · (2016=100, sa, ratio scale) * Red horizontal lines span cyclical...

Zoom Charts

Yardeni Research, Inc.

September 18, 2020

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 202415

16

17

18

19

20

15

16

17

18

19

20

REAL GDP(trillions of 2012 dollars, saar, ratio scale) Q4

Real GDP Projected Growth Rates (q/q%, saar) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 -5 -33 25 5 2021 4 4 3 3 2022 3 3 2 2

19.3

17.2

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

* Red line is YRI forecast for Q3- 2020 through Q4-2022.

yardeni.com

Figure 1.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2020

4.8

5.4

6.0

6.6

7.2

7.8

8.4

9.0

9.6

10.2

10.8

11.4

12.0

4.8

5.4

6.0

6.6

7.2

7.8

8.4

9.0

9.6

10.2

10.8

11.4

12.0US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS: GASOLINE SUPPLIED(million barrels per day, 4-week moving average, sa)

Values shown are prior years’ weekscomparable to latest year’s week 09/11/20

2020 (8.7)2019 (9.5)2018 (9.7)

5.3 (April 24)

2017 (9.5)

Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 2.

Page 3 / September 18, 2020 / Zoom Charts www.yardeni.com


2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20223.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

Jul

RETAIL SALES & FOOD SERVICES(trillion dollars, saar)

Retail SalesTotal (6.4)Ex Gasoline (6.0)

Source Census Bureau.

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Figure 3.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20221

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jul

WAGES & SALARIES & GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITPAYMENTS IN PERSONAL INCOME(trillion dollars, saar)

Personal IncomeWages & SalariesGovernment Social Benefits

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.



2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.1

1.1

2.1

3.1

4.1

5.1

6.1

7.1

.1

1.1

2.1

3.1

4.1

5.1

6.1

7.1

Jul

PERSONAL SAVING(trillion dollars, saar)

Latest (3.2)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 5.

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 2525

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

32 Months2/20-10/22

68 Months1/08-10/1333 Months

2/01-11/03

23 Months7/90-6/92

25 Months8/81-9/83

32 Months11/73-7/76

19 Months10/69-5/71

30 Months5/71-11/73

61 Months7/76-8/81

82 Months9/83-7/90

104 Months6/92-2/01

50 Months11/03-1/08

77 Months10/13-2/20

Aug

COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS: RECOVERIES & EXPANSIONS*(2016=100, sa, ratio scale)

* Red horizontal lines span cyclical peaks through subsequent cyclical recoveries. Green horizontal lines are expansion periods following recoveries.Source: Conference Board, Haver Analytics, and YRI calculations.

yardeni.com

Figure 6.



97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

YIELD SPREAD US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS 10-YEAR US TREASURY BONDS(basis points, daily)

9/17

Spread (481)

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Board.

yard

eni.c

om

Figure 7.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20218

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

9/7

LIQUID ASSETS*(trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale)

Latest (16.2)

* Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals &institutions.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 8.



2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

9/16

Aug

MODERN MONETARY THEORY(trillion dollars)

MMTFed’s Holdings of US Treasuries(yearly change, weekly)Federal Budget Deficit(12-month sum)

Note: QE1 (11/25/08-3/31/10) = $1.24tn in mortgage securities; expanded (3/16/09-3/31/10) = $300bn in Treasuries. QE2 (11/3/10-6/30/11) = $600bnin Treasuries. QE3 (9/13/12-10/29/14) = $40bn/month in mortgage securities (open ended); expanded (12/12/12-10/1/14) = $45bn/month in Treasuries.QT (10/1/17-7/31/19) = balance sheet pared by $675bn. RM (11/1/19-3/15/20) = reserve management, $60bn/month in Treasury bills. QE4 (3/16/20-infinity).Source: Federal Reserve Board and US Treasury Department.

yardeni.com

Figure 9.

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20211700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

3700

1700

1900

2100

2300

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

3500

3700

9/18

S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX(daily)

3386.15

2237.4

Latest (3319.47)

Source: Standard & Poor’s.Note: Dotted lines show previous years’ closing prices.

yardeni.com

Figure 10.



2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20225

10

15

20

25

.4

.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.8

5.2

5.6

6.0

6.4

6.8

7.2

7.6

S&P 500 FORWARD P/E & FED ASSETS (weekly) 9/16

Total Fed Assets(trillion dollars) (7.0)

S&P 500Forward P/E* (21.4)

* S&P 500 index divided by year-ahead forward analysts’ consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share.Source: Federal Reserve Board, I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv, and Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 11.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202350

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

COVID-19

2021

22

Q2

Latest data thru 09/10/20yardeni.com

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE & YRI FORECASTS(dollars per share, ratio scale)

I/B/E/S Actual EPSEPS* (145.37)

YRI Forecasts2020 (125.00)2021 (155.00)2022 (180.00)

Consensus Forecasts2020 (130.05)2021 (166.34)2022 (189.35)

Note: COVID-19 = WHO declares global pandemic on 3/11/2020.* Four-quarter trailing sum of operating earnings per share.

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 12.



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202250

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

LehmanCollapse

COVID-19

2020 2021 Frwd Sep 3 130.18 166.39 155.25 Sep 10 130.05 166.34 155.87

2021

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

9/10

2020 By Quarter as of 09/10/20

Consensus ForecastsAnnualForward*

* Time-weighted average of analysts’ consensus estimates for S&P 500 operating earnings for current year and next year.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Note: Lehman collapsed 9/15/2008. COVID-19 = WHO declares global pandemic on 3/11/2020.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

yardeni.com

Figure 13.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

9/17

STYLE RATIO: S&P 500 GROWTH PRICE INDEX DIVIDED BY VALUE PRICE INDEX(daily)

Rising line indicates thatGrowth is outperforming Value

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Source: Standard & Poor’s and Haver Analytics.

Figure 14.



95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

9/17

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P 500 GROWTH & VALUE*(daily)

Growth (27.1)Value (16.7)

* Price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, then daily.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

yardeni.com

Figure 15.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

.1

.2

.3

.4

.5

.6

.7

.8

9/17

9/17

STYLE RATIOS: SMIDCAPS DIVIDED BY LARGECAPS(daily)

S&P 400 divided by S&P 500S&P 600 divided by S&P 500

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 16.



97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 233

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

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3

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11

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14

9/17

9/17

STYLE RATIOS: STAY HOME vs GO GLOBAL(daily)

US MSCI / ACW ex-USIn dollarsIn local currencies

Source: MSCI.

yardeni.com

Figure 17.

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2280

90

100

110

120

130

140

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

9/17

9/18

S&P GOLDMAN SACHS COMMODITY INDEX & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR(daily)

Goldman SachsCommodity Index(nearby futures price)

JP Morgan NominalBroad EffectiveExchange Rate

Source: Standard & Poor’s, JP Morgan, and Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 18.



94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225

10

15

20

25

30

35

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

GEKO

MSFTXOMINTC

MSFTCSCO

GEINTCXOM

XOMWMT

PGMSFT

JNJ

AAPLXOMWMTMSFT

GOOGLAAPLAMZNMSFT

GOOGLBRKb

AAPLMSFTAMZN

GOOGLFB

9/11

S&P 500 MARKET CAP: SHARE OF TOP 3 & TOP 5 COMPANIES(percent, weekly)

9/11

Top 5 (24.7)Top 3 (18.2)

Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Blue shaded areas are correction declines of 10% to less than 20%.Yellow areas are bull markets.Source: Yardeni Research using Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202115

20

25

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40

45

50

15

20

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35

40

45

50

9/11

FAAMG* STOCKS FORWARD P/E(weekly) Latest (39.5)

* FAAMG stocks include Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Google (Alphabet). Both classes of Alphabet are included.** Market cap divided by aggregate forward consensus expected operating earnings.

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

yardeni.com

Figure 20.



90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1.5

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

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5.0

5.5

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6.5

7.0

-1.5

-1.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Jul

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES DEFLATOR(yearly percent change)

PCEDHeadline (1.0)Core* (1.3)

* Excluding food and energy prices.Note: Dotted line is the Fed’s official target set during January 2012.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 21.

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-25

0

25

50

75

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325

-25

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325

Q2

9/9

ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS*: ALLOWANCE FOR LOAN & LEASE LOSSES(billion dollars, sa)

Allowance for LossesAll Commercial Banks (189.1)Large Domestic Banks (128.4)Small Domestic Banks (59.4)Provision for Loan & Lease Loses MinusNet Charge-Offs** (268.4)

* Includes domestically chartered commercial banks and foreign-related ones.** Cumulative change since 1984. All FDIC-insured financial institutions

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Quarterly Banking Profile.

yardeni.com

Figure 22.



82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-10

-5

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-10

-5

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5

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50

US MONETARY AGGREGATES*(yearly percent change)

9/7

MZM* (28.7)M2** (24.0)

* Money Zero Maturity is M2 less time deposits plus all money market funds.** M2 is M1 plus most savings accounts, money market accounts, retail money market mutual funds, and small denomination time deposits (certificates

of deposit of under $100,000).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 23.

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22200

600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

3000

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600

1000

1400

1800

2200

2600

3000

9/18

GOLD SPOT PRICE(ratio scale)

Gold Spot PriceUS Dollars* (1964.90)Forex** (2398.48)

Source: Haver Analytics and JP Morgan.** Dollar price times JP Morgan trade-weighted dollar.* Cash price. London gold bullion, PM Fix.

yardeni.com

Figure 24.



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Zoom Charts - Yardeni Research · (2016=100, sa, ratio scale) * Red horizontal lines span cyclical...

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