Zipser - input2012

Significance of the regional policy Significance of the regional policy

towards the climate change dangers

Wawrzyniec Zipser

Department of Spatial Planning

Introduction to the problem and questions

• Projected climate change up until 2050 will affect many aspects of life and

introduce largely negative changes

• The most noticeable effects of these changes are expected in the low-lying

coastal areas, exposed to the risks associated with the rise of the ocean

levels and temperatures

• Proposed actions should be considered that could prepare or transform • Proposed actions should be considered that could prepare or transform

the most vulnerable, primarily urban areas (FUA)

• The most suited region for the study is the Asian continent, experiencing a

great economic growth along with an increasing pressure of urbanization

and migration to the coastal areas

• How to prevent the risks and what resources to use in

preparing a strategic development scenarios?

2Significance of the regional policy towards the climate change dangers. W. Zipser, Wrocław Univ. of Technology

Why the Far East?


Source: World Development Bank, Report 2009

The proposed approach

• Most of the research and analysis of the regions or metropolitan areas

vulnerable to climate change has focused only on the areas directly

threatened by the effects of global warming. It seems that given the

difficulties in determining patterns of human behavior, their spontaneous

adaptability in the face of threats, it should also be attempted to identify

alternatives, such as preparation to migrate populations and production alternatives, such as preparation to migrate populations and production

resources to safe or at least less vulnerable areas.

• The proposed approach is to use modeling tools to determine potential

substitutional scenarios, which can be used to identify the most favorable

actions in the framework of a regional spatial policy.


The recommended methodology requires:

• a differentiated approach in determining the reception of the risks and the

impact of the climate depending on the sensitivity of the test area. That

concerns mainly the alternative areas, where the variable climatic factors

may have different characteristics than in the coastal areas (droughts,

landslides, local flooding, etc.).

• a comparison of vulnerable areas with the summary maps of land use,

population change (density) and forecast valuation of damage to the population change (density) and forecast valuation of damage to the

structure (satellite images, GIS mapping). At this stage predictive tests are

recommended, which would aim to anticipate demographic developments

and determine the most probable and attractive areas that would be able

to take over some of the functions and roles of the endangered cities.

Previously made assessment of vulnerable areas will help to es7mate the

capacity that must be taken into account in allocational modeling.

• the last stage will consist of multivariate analyses focusing on the

effectiveness of implementation of various scenarios in terms of

economic, social and the geopolitical context5

Significance of the regional policy towards the climate change dangers. W. Zipser, Wrocław Univ. of Technology

Modelling the urbanization process

The following definition of urbanization is proposed here:

Urbanization is the state of arranged space characterized by:

• Achievement of a suitable degree of probability of contacts resulting from

the leading pattern of needs accepted by a given civilization.

• Achievement of balance understood as the conformability between the

optimal or indispensable number of contacts for a particular element and optimal or indispensable number of contacts for a particular element and

the number of contacts it actually realizes.

• High degree of spatial freedom of the origins and destinations of contacts,

which means that their locations in space are not strongly determined but

depend on both conditions mentioned above.

The nature of these factors suggests that the intervening opportunities

model would be the most adequate to look for a relatively simple but

sufficiently comprehensive tool for modeling the contacts that are

responsible for the emerging of an urbanized structure


Identification of the threatened areas

The modeling covered the part of

Asia east of the Strait of Malacca.

This area includes 155 cities –

Functional Urban Areas, whose

population exceeds 300,000

inhabitants.

Topographic analysis of the


Topographic analysis of the

functional areas (Spatial Analyst),

based on the Global Digital

Elevation Model - GTOPO30 raster.

• Identification of the areas of 0-2

meters above the sea level as

those at risk of periodic flooding

due to rising sea levels

Allocation simulation -

intervening opportunities


Expected migratory flows between cities

(origin – destination flows)

Depending on the parameters used, especially the most important: selectivity, the relationships

change, indicating the direction and intensity of a takeover and role replacement of threatened

cities by other regional players


Expected migratory flows between cities in

selected sectors

(origin – destination flows)


Conclusions

• The simulation proposed herein should be regarded as a low-cost opportunity to test

various scenarios, taking advantage of the high performance compatibility with the real

city-formation processes. With some effort and further refinement of selected

parameters, such as a pattern of behavior (selectivity) in particular regions or mainly the

capacity of the alternative areas (cities’ ability to ensure physical and functional support

for new residents) and while taking into account true to actual results achieved thanks to

the indirect model, planning activities may be undertaken that will anticipate changes in

the settlement environment and avert preventable tragedies.

• Of course, the test phase is only a part of the required procedures for the assessment of

particular solutions and must be supported with interdisciplinary research. Only such an particular solutions and must be supported with interdisciplinary research. Only such an

analysis may define specific policy for individual cities and a sequence of solutions, such

as construction of sea embankments, works on inland water retention system, an early

warning system or development of entirely new areas not exposed to climate change

over the next 100 years.

• In many of these cases, social costs affecting mostly the poor and the most vulnerable

will be incurred anyway. Scenario testing can help protect them instead of exposing them

to greatest losses. It may serve as a tool to assist in the selection of the most efficient and

functional solutions, for example rearranging of the spatial structure of cities with whole

metropolitan surrounding. Technology is not necessarily the only remedy against threats.


Significance of the regional policy

towards the climate change dangers

Wawrzyniec Zipser

[email protected]

Thank you for your attention

Zipser - input2012

Technology

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