Zero Carbon Australia - 2020 Stationary Energy Report v1

8/9/2019 Zero Carbon Australia - 2020 Stationary Energy Report v1

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ENERGY

> A ten year roadmap for 100% renewable energy> Baseload energy supplied by renewable sources

> Affordable at $8 per household per week

Australian Sustainable Energy

Zero Carbon AustraliaStationary Energy Plan

A researchcollaboration

marKEl rEdondo


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ENERGY

Published by theMelbourne Energy InstituteUniversity of Melbourne, July 2010www.energy.unimelb.edu.au

As the IEA has shown in its research, solar energy is now a serious global

player for providing the worlds energy. Australia has one of the worlds

best solar energy resource, especially suited for concentrating solar thermal

power plants, which can dispatch electricity when it is needed. The Zero

Carbon Australia Plan is based on up-to-date and sound information and

provides quality insights on how a country well-endowed in renewable

resources can transition to a solar and wind economy.

CdriC PhilibErt

rEnEwablE EnErgy diviSion

intErnational EnErgy agEnCy

With our natural advantage Australia can and should be positioning itself as

a global renewable super power for future prosperity. This report will help

shift the climate debate to focus on energy, security, affordability, export and

of course opportunity. Beyond Zero Emissions offers a new and invigorating

message that is much needed.

robin battErham

KErnot ProfESSor of EnginEEring, univErSity of mElbournE

PrESidEnt, auStralian aCadEmy of tEChnologiCal SCiEnCES and EnginEEring

formErly ChiEf SCiEntiSt of auStralia

The Zero Carbon Australia 2020 plan shows that it is technically feasible and

affordable to replace all fossil fuel electricity with 100% renewable energy

given the willpower and commitment to do so. This is a cutting-edge science-

based plan that should be read by every energy decision maker and politician

in Australia.

marK Z. JaCobSon

ProfESSor of Civil and EnvironmEntal EnginEEring

ProfESSor by CourtESy of EnErgy rESourCES EnginEEring

dirECtor, atmoSPhErE/EnErgy ProgramStanford univErSity, uSa

9 780980 825800

ISBN 978-0-9808258-0-0


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The management of BrightSource Energy have had a long and extensiveinvolvement in the solar thermal industry. At BrightSource's predecessor, Luz, theydesigned, developed, built and operated the nine SEGS parabolic trough plants inCalifornia that still operate today. Built in the 1980's, these plants were the best thatcould be built with the available technology at the time and certainly proved beyondany doubt that one could capture the sun's energy and convert it into steam for largescale electricity generation on a scale never before contemplated.

But, there were limits to this technology which resulted in low efficiencies and

capacity factors, and high capital costs. Our team at BrightSource has nowcompletely re-engineered the whole approach to solar thermal, utilising a centralisedtower to effect a direct solar to steam design. By using flat glass mirrors that trackthe sun all day and through the seasons, our tower plants generate steam at 550Cand higher, allowing us to use standard Rankine cycle generation power blocks thatare dry cooled. With far greater efficiencies, higher capacity factors, lower capitalcosts and the ability to operate the plant in hybrid mode and/or with storage, theBrightSource Luz Power Tower is the proven technology of today and well into thefuture for delivering firm, renewable power.

I certainly encourage and endorse the need for a holistic plan being developed forour generation portfolio in Australia going forward one that properly takes intoconsideration our targets and desire to substantially increase the proportion of renewablegeneration capacity. The plan requires careful consideration of our "as is" situation, thedesired "to be" at future dates such as 2020 and beyond, and a migration plan that willtransform our generation portfolio over time to meet our renewable targets and achievesecurity of supply. Solar thermal power, as a firm, dispatchable power generationsource, will be an integral and significant component of this plan and its deployment.

andrEw dyEr, dirECtor, brightSourCE EnErgy auStralia


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| ZCa2020 S Ee P| ZCa2020 S Ee P

To achieve a safe climate future we need an urgent, large-scale transition. The workof Beyond Zero Emissions shows that the technical transition is affordable andachievable. Now we need a social and political transition to get behind it.

ProfESSor CarmEn lawrEnCE

SChool of PSyChology, univErSity of wEStErn auStralia

formEr PrEmiEr of wEStErn auStralia

Over the past few decades the community in general and all sides of politics havecome to accept the significance of the threat that greenhouse gas emissions fromfossil fuel use has given rise to. Serious concrete action on changing our energy mixis all too slow in coming.

One of the challenges that those of us promoting a renewable energy future face,is that in the community and amongst decision makers, whilst there is widespreadsupport for the idea of the renewable energy solutions, there is a lack of informationon their level of technical and commercial maturity and their ability to deliver inshort time frames. This is the information gap that the Beyond Zero Emissions

study helps to fill in a very significant way.The ZCA report analyses one particular scenario of renewable energy technologychoice based on available solutions, in considerable depth. It successfully shows indetail that 100% renewable energy is both technically possible and economicallyaffordable. Clearly other renewable energy technology scenarios are also possible,that only serves to strengthen the overall conclusion about viability. The group is tobe congratulated for their efforts.

aSSoCiatE ProfESSor KEith lovEgrovE

high tEmPEraturE Solar thErmal grouP,

auStralian national univErSity

The chips are down - there is no longer any doubt about our need to rapidly

transition to a zero emission economy. The fate of Australia and the worlddepend on it. The Zero Carbon Australia strategy being launched by BeyondZero Emissions provides the roadmap to the solutions. Lets hope it is adopted byresponsible governments everywhere.

ProfESSor ovE hoEgh-goldbErg

dirECtor, global ChangE inStitutE, thE univErSity of quEEnSland

This is a bold and ground-breaking piece of work which should be a wake-up callto all those in government and industry who refuse to see beyond coal.

This is a very exciting report. It has academic rigour; it has also the hope of ageneration and it has thousands of jobs waiting to happen.

We can and must aim to power Australia with 100% renewable energy as soon aspossible if we are to truly tackle the climate crisis - and the great news is, that willbring huge benefits to us all, cleaning the air and creating jobs and investment fromthe suburbs to the farmlands.

This Zero Carbon Australia plan is an extremely valuable contribution which all inthe parliament should be looking at very seriously

ChriStinE milnE

SEnator for taSmania

Its not the five per cent cut project or the 20 per cent cut project with a bunch ofunachievable caveats. Its a zero carbon project and I think people actually want

to be told a narrative, a story which is ambitious, which is aspirational, but alsopractical and I think that is what this project is about. niCK XEnoPhon

SEnator for South auStralia


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It is difficult to imagine the Zero Carbon Australia plan being adopted in the contextof Australias current political and commercial culture and power cost structure.However, as an examination of the technical feasibility of achieving its goals as itseeks to shift this culture, it offers an interesting challenge for the imagination ofpolicymakers and power suppliers feeling their way in to an uncertain future.

KEith orChiSon, dirECtor, Coolibah Pty ltdformEr managing dirECtor, ElECtriCity SuPPly aSSoCiation of auStralia

Every nation in the world should make a plan like this. If one can get a 100%renewable, zero carbon electricity system by investing 3% of GDP (and 10% ofgross investment) for ten years, there is no good reason not to do it. Except, maybe,the straitjacket of old ways of thinking and doing.

This plan lays out a high solar-wind renewable future and then does more. It lookscarefully at the materials requirements of such a future, an aspect of the matter toooften left unaddressed.

Australia could be the first large economy to show the way.

John o. blaCKburnProfESSor EmErituS of EConomiCS,

duKE univErSity, uSa

I strongly endorse the broad concept of such a solar and wind plan and applaud thework of the University of Melbourne and Beyond Zero Emissions. Our own workunderway to calculate the feasibility of a 100% solar - wind plan for the UnitedStates has so far had the aim of testing technical feasibility, and the match seems tobe 99-100%. We have considered the biomass backup options as well for CST plantsbut increased thermal storage also seems to work for a 100% solar - wind systemfor the USA. I have some differences in the discussion of CST technology used asan example, but the study is at an initial stage. The advent of such a comprehensive

study in Australia will assist recognition of our own work directed to the USA case,and speed the market development of the CST and wind technologies to supplyeconomical solar energy both day and night.

dr david millS

foundEr and PaSt CEo

Solar thErmal PowEr ComPany auSra

Wind Power is now a serious player in international energy. Installing 8,000megawatt-class turbines along with smaller wind turbines and other renewableswhere appropriate is achievable at a price the community can afford. Direct driveturbines such as the Enercon turbines are very suitable for a modern electricity gridwhere wind will be relied upon for a large proportion of overall electricity demand.

david woodEnmaX/SChuliCh ProfESSor of rEnEwablE EnErgy

dEPartmEnt of mEChaniCal and manufaCturing EnginEEring

univErSity of Calgary, Canada

That Australia enjoys an abundance of renewable energy resources is beyond question.The Zero Carbon Australia 2020 plan demonstrates that it is both technically feasibleand economically affordable for Australia to realise the benefit of these resources andtransition to a 100% renewable energy future. Australian politicians and decision makerswith the vision and commitment to embrace this new path have the opportunity to playan important role in leading Australia to a sustainable low carbon future.

Sharon maSChEr, aSSoCiatE ProfESSor, CEntrE for mining,

EnErgy and rESourCES law univErSity of wEStErn auStralia


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For decades, those opposing the transition to clean energy have claimed that it isnot technically feasible. This report puts that argument convincingly to bed. There isno longer an excuse for inaction. Starting the transition now is our responsibility tofuture generations.

ProfESSor ian lowE

PrESidEnt of thE auStralian ConSErvation foundationEmErituS ProfESSor griffith univErSity

Beyond Zero Emissions have been in my building, Kindness House, for five years.The dedication of this remarkable team of individuals is astonishing. Most of all, I amimpressed by their relentless pursuit of the truth, wherever it may lead. They havebuilt their strategies cautiously, never letting the enthusiasm distract them from thegoal of getting the right answers by asking the right questions.

They are a welcoming organization, drawing experts from a variety of disciplines,methodically searching for practical solutions to the challenges of reducing ourmassive carbon footprint. I am personally delighted to see the tens of thousands ofhours they have invested in this important project, never once complaining about thelack of financial resources at their disposal. They have focussed their attention heavilyon the carbon costs of stationary power, transport and building. I look forward to thetime when they devote their formidable intellect and energy to the Livestock industry,where so much of our carbon share is squandered and emissions ignored. BeyondZero Emissions is one organization I am proud to say I helped to incubate.

I urge every serious institution to listen to them attentively. These are serious peoplefor serious times.

PhiliP wollEn oam

auStralian of thE yEar viCtoria 2007

Australians are capable of rapid change when the historical circumstances call for it.Indeed, we pride ourselves on being a resourceful people. The Beyond Zero Emissions

team show how inventive and resourceful we can be. Their plan for a transition to100% renewables is a powerful and cogent response to those who claim it cant bedone. The reception this report receives will be a sign of how much Australians believein their future and how much they take refuge in the thinking of the past.

ClivE hamilton

ProfESSor of PubliC EthiCS and

author of rEquiEm for a SPECiES

The Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy Plan is a provocative and timelycontribution to the climate change debate, and it deserves attention both hereand abroad. The Plan demolishes a pile of conventional wisdom that Australianpolicymakers still seem unable to get past. The sorry history of Australian climate

policy procrastination is littered with polluter-friendly analyses conducted byeconomic hired guns. Their work has been used to argue against action, or forillusory schemes that price carbon without reducing the greenhouse pollutionbillowing from Australian smokestacks and tailpipes. The effect has been toconstrain debate and obscure from our view a very different visiona rapid switchfrom fossil to renewable energy that makes economic and environmental sense. Byhighlighting one of many pathways to achieving that vision, the ZCA report shedslight where it is desperately needed.

dr guy PEarSE

rESEarCh fEllow, global ChangE inStitutE, univErSity of quEEnSland

author of high & dry and quarry viSion


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I get to work with people all over the world in the fight against global warming, a fightgrowing increasingly desperate as temperatures climb and rainfall patterns shift. SinceAustralia leads the world in per capita emissions, it makes sense that its transitionplanners would be thinking big. This transition obviously wont be easy or simple orcost-free, but given the alternatives its very nice to know its technically feasible!

bill mCKibbEnSCholar in rESidEnCE at middlEbury CollEgE, author and foundEr 350.org

This is exactly the type of initiative that we, the solar power industry, needsto propel our technology into the energy markets of Australia. SolarReservesconcentrated solar power towers with molten salt storage are the most reliable,stable form of clean, renewable energy, which is exactly whats needed to achievethe safe climate future proposed in BZEs Zero Carbon Australia roadmap.SolarReserves solar thermal technology with molten salt storage; proven at SolarTwo, the US Department of Energys 10 MW pilot plant that operated for over 3years in the 1990s, will not only aid in meeting Australias renewable energy andcarbon reduction objectives, but also have significant economic benefits, bringinggreen jobs and cutting edge technology.

Solar Reserve is willing, ready and able to deploy our molten salt power towers andfully supports the Zero Carbon Australia project.

tom gEorgiS

viCE PrESidEnt, SolarrESErvE

The twin threats of peak oil and climate change are now real and escalating rapidly.They demand a radical re-think of our approach to energy, ending our fossil-fueldependence and moving to sustainable solutions before oil scarcity and climatechange impact cut off our options - and it has to happen far faster than our leadersare prepared to acknowledge.

Zero Carbon Australia 2020 is exactly the type of positive, rigorous technicalanalysis that is urgently needed to chart our path to a sustainable future - andconvince Australia that there are far better alternatives to the complacentassumption that our high-carbon lifestyle can continue ad infinitum.

ian dunloP

formEr CEo, auStralian inStitutE of ComPany dirECtorS

formEr EXECutivE dirECtor of thE auStralian Coal aSSoCiation

Renewable energy is the only way to go in the future. Enercon windenergy converters are designed to the newest standards to integrate withthe modern high flexibility demands of electricity grids, providing sustainablereliable power to keep the wheels of daily life, household and industry turning.

The Zero Carbon Plan outlines a technically achievable plan for generating all ofAustralias energy from the wind and the sun. It can be a realistic goal if Australiagets immediately seriously committed with decision making from industry andgovernment. We hope that its recommendations are taken up so that Australia canalso be a player in the renewable energy economy that is already booming aroundthe world.

EnErCon gmbh


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| ZCa2020 S Ee P

Success in restoring a safe climate depends on transforming the global economy by2020. Every nation and every economy needs to act. The Beyond Zero Emissionsgroup shows in their Zero Carbon Australia 2020 report how this can be done forAustralia. The report charts a practical pathusing only commercially availabletechnologyto a zero emissions stationary energy sector. Lets hope that, very soon,every country has such a plan.

lEStEr r. brown, PrESidEnt of Earth PoliCy inStitutEauthor of Plan b 4.0: mobiliZing to SavE CiviliSation

As a company involved in the development of solar plants all over the world, atTorresol Energy we support the Zero Carbon Australia Plan that sets the path for afuture with clean, renewable energy.

Australia is one of the areas with better solar radiation and forms part ofthe international sun belt. Besides, the country has excellent conditions forprofiting from that solar radiation: large low-populated areas to build the plantsand an industry that can support the technological development in the solargeneration sector. In that sense, each of Torresol Energys new projects introduces

technologically advanced improvements to make Concentrated Solar Energy amanageable, economically competitive option and a real, viable, ecological andsustainable alternative to traditional energy sources.

Torresol Energy has three plants currently under construction. Among them,Gemasolar, with an innovative technology of central tower with molten salt receiverand thermal storage system, is the first commercial plant in the world of itskind. Due to this, the project has achieved considerable importance in the field ofrenewable energies as it opens the path to a new solar thermal power generation.Today, all of the analyses that have been carried out either by ourselves or by majorinternational institutions show that tower plants with thermal storage is the type oftechnology that will be capable of generating reliable, manageable and renewableenergy at the lowest costs. Therefore Australia could adapt this kind of technology

in its renewable energy development plan that will allow the country to conservethe environment for future generations with a reliable energy source through utilityscale baseload CSP plants.

Santiago ariaS

ChiEf infraStruCturE offiCEr,

torrESol EnErgy

From the other side of the globe Protermosolar fully shares the vision of the realisticand feasible Zero Carbon Australia Plan. Spain is currently the country with themost intensive deployment of CST plants and their contribution to the grid stabilityand to the dispatchability of power supply has been fully demonstrated. Molten

salt storage systems have been implemented in many Spanish plants providingpredictable and reliable operation after sunset. Thus CST technologies could beconsidered as a real alternative to cover even the base load requirements of theelectricity system.

Australia must profit from its high solar resource, the sooner the better. An effectiveboost to CST and to the other renewable technologies - as presented in this plan will not only go in the right direction in terms of the transition to a new energy mixbut it will also result in an excellent business for the Australian economy.

dr. luiS CrESPo

gEnEral-SECrEtary ProtErmoSolar

SPaniSh aSSoCiation of CSt induStriES


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Te University f Melburne Energy Researc Institute

Beyn Zer Emissins

> a e e p 100% eee ee

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> ae $8 pe se pe eek

LEAd AUThoRS

me w Executive directr, Beyn Zer Emissins

Pck heps University f Melburne

as Sse EeZer Carbn AustraliaS Ee P


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as Sse Ee

Zer Carbn Australia

Statinary Energy Planle asMatthew WrightExecutive directr,Beyn Zer Emissins

Patrick HearpsUniversity f Melburne

CcepMark Ogge

directr, Beyn ZerEmissins

be ZeEsssresecesDerek BoltonMA, MSc (Mats),oxfr University

Pablo BraitBEng (Env), Mnas

James Bramwell

BEng (Mec), ANU

Rob CampbellMEng, RMIT

Kevin CaseyBEng (Elec), UNSW,frmerly Ericssn

Chris ClementMSc (Energy Tec),BEng, Win Engineer

Vernon CrockBApp Sc

Richard DenbyBArc, deakin

Andy DinningBEng (Elec),Transmissin Engineer, SKM

Rebecca DunnBEng (Slar), Pd Caniate,ANU Slar Termal Grup

Dominic EalesBEng, Pgdip (Elec),Swiss Feeral Institute fTecnlgy

Tim ForceyBEng (Cem), LeigEnergy Cnsultant

Trent HawkinsBEng (Mec)

Nina MuhleisenBEng (Mec), RMIT

Anne OBrianBSc (hns),University f Syney

Miwa TominagaBEng (Elec), MSc (Ren En)

Kevin YehBEng (Energy Systems),frmerly ANU SlarTermal Grup

Adrian Young

ues meeresecesReuben FinighanBSc/BA,Winner Natinal EnergyEssay Cmpetitin 2008

Paul FleckneyBSc (Cem)

Naomi FrancisBEng (Env)

Chloe Hanson-BoydBEng (Cem)

Rob HarringtonBEng (Bime)

Patrick HearpsBEng (Cem),frmerly ExxnMbil

James HutchisonBSc (Pysics), MEnv,Analyst, AEMo

Richard KeechMEng (Elec), frmerlyRAAF Engineering

Jim LambertBEng, MEngSc, Pd (Elec)

Eytan LenkoBEng, BSc,frmerly BP

Dylan McConnellBEng (Cem)

Ben RobothamMCem (Pysics),Pd Caniate

Matthew SullivanBEng, BSc, MEng (Energy)

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Twenty-eigt billin is a big number. Measure in tnnes itis a very eavy la. Tis figure is te amunt f seimentere eac year frm all ur muntains an carrie by allur rivers t all ur seas. An it is te amunt f carbnixie (Co

2) we pump int te atmspere eac year frm

burning fssil fuels glbally enug t cver Australia ina blanket tw metres tick. In llars, it is just a little mretan te extra annual investment neee t recnfigureAustralias statinary energy system t ave zer emissinsin just 10 years time.

Eac year te 28 billin tnnes f Co2

we make inuceseating. Te ceans are nw eating at te penmenalrate f 300 trillin watts. In frigteningly uman terms tatis equivalent t etnating five hirsima size A-bmbsevery secn, every ay f every year.

T make 28 billin tnnes f Co2

we ig 7 billin tnnesf cal an suck cuntless gallns f il an gas frm tegrun. In ttal we alreay excavate mre rck frm teEart tan nature es. Wit peak il rapily appracing, ifnt passe, BPs deepwater hrizn catastrpe attests tte uge risks entaile in maintaining pructin.

Te rate we cnsume energy t emit tat Co2

is 16 trillinwatts. Tat is alreay abut 1/3 f te energy release byplate tectnics - te prcess tat puses cntinents arun

te glbe ver gelgical time making muntains aneartquakes as it ges. on current grwt trajectries weare set t surpass tis amunt f energy by 2060.

Eac year we are aing a bit uner 1% t te atmspericCo

2la, enancing te greenuse effect by a small

fractin f a percent. By trapping just a tiny extra fractinf te incming slar energy, we are eating nt nly teatmspere, but als te ceans an lan.

Suc numbers give a very real sense tat we umans arenw perating as a gelgical cange agent. But te scaryting is we ave nly just begun. Energy use is increasing

expnentially, ubling every 34 years s tat it will increaseby 800% in a century. Curtailing energy grwt will nt beeasy wit 2 billin peple alreay in energy pverty an 2billin mre ae t te uman number by mi century.

S w will we cater fr ur future energy nees?

one answer stares us in te face. Effectively cnvertingabut 0.06% f te slar energy tat its te lan wulmeet te entire glbal energy eman.

But arent tere prblems wit renewable energy? Isnt itt expensive an unreliable? After all, te win esntblw all te time an te sun esnt sine at nigt.

Currently, avance slar termal pwer wit mlten saltstrage, capable f prucing pwer n eman ay rnigt, is abut fur times mre expensive tan te ceapestcal fire pwer plants. But te cst f new tecnlgies

fe

always reuces wit large-scale rllut. Te 2003 US-base Sargent & Luny reprt anticipate slar termalelectricity csts wul reac parity wit cal fire pwernce 8.7 GW f capacity was installe just a bit unerVictrias statinary energy capacity tay.

S far, tere as nt even been mest stimulus fr slartermal pwer. Te Glbal Financial Crisis is partly tblame, but plitical will is te resurce in srtest supply.Te BP deepwater hrizn il spill may ave cange tat.

S wat if we were t try t buil a 100% renewable energysystem t pwer te Australian ecnmy in just 10 years?hw cul we pssibly tat, an wat wul it cst?

Tat is te callenge utline in Australian SustainableEnergy Zer Carbn Australia Statinary Energy Plan.

Zer Carbn Australia utlines a cerent an truglyresearce blueprint swing w 100% renewable energyis acievable using tecnlgies tat are cmmerciallyavailable tay: win pwer an cncentrating slar termalwit mlten salt strage. It ges trug te ptins, cstsan benefits, cnfirming tat a 10 year transfrmatin f testatinary energy sectr is acievable an affrable. Tiswill als a uge stimulus t te new green ecnmy ancreate jbs.

Zer Carbn Australia emnstrates tat bt cst anvariability can be reaily aresse, an expses as mytte frequent argument tat we nee cal, gas r nucleart prvie basela electricity. Tis is acieve by firstsmting pwer utput acrss te gri via gegrapicallyisperse pructin, an secnly prviing ispatcableback up pwer frm te mlten salt strage at slartermal pwer plants. our natin cntinent, stretcingacrss climate an time znes, appears reay mae fr tis.

Zer Carbn Australia prvies a big visin - Australia as arenewable energy pweruse. But 28 billin tnnes f Co

2

is a big la, an getting bigger. Terefre a big visin fr

an alternative energy system is precisely wat is neee.

Zer Carbn Australia is an extrarinary an pragmaticramap t a new an mre sustainable energy systemin Australia, an ultimately ur regin. I recmmen it tall w are truly intereste in securing Australias energyfuture.

mke S

Prfessr f Gelgydirectr, Melburne Energy Institute

University f MelburneJune 2010


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ackeees

le s: Mattew Wrigt, Executive directr,Beyn Zer Emissins an Patrick hearps,University f Melburne

Ccep: Mark ogge, directr, Beyn Zer Emissins

be Ze Esss eseces: derek Bltn Pablo Brait James Bramwell Rob Campbell KevinCasey Chris Clement Vernon Crock Richard Denby Andy Dinning Rebecca Dunn Dominic Eales TimForcey Trent Hawkins Nina Muhleisen Kevin Yeh Adrian Young

ues meeeseces: Reuben Finigan Paul Fleckney Naomi Francis Chloe Hanson-Boyd Rob Harrington Patrick Hearps James Hutchison Richard Keech Jim Lambert Eytan Lenko DylanMcConnell Ben Robotham Matthew Sullivan

tecc spp: Sinclair Knight Merz Jack ActuarialConsulting Adjunct Professor Alan Pears

Es: Andrew Campbell-Fraser Jonathan Daly DrRoger Dargaville Dr Adam Lucas Elena McMaster Jane Morton Andrew Longmire Dr Merryn Redenbach Warwick Wright

mj sppes: Winsome Constance, Kindness Trust Donkey Wheel Foundation Climate Positive ClimateEmergency Network Dr Gavin Wright Graeme Wood

Derek Bolton Stephen Whateley T10 Alliance DanCass an C.

gpc eses: markmaking.com.au Bindarri.com.au Ammon Beyerle Sandy Chansiri Dvize Creative Genevieve Engelhardt Luke Hodge Heidi Lee GlennTodd Sharon Wong Scott Bilby

reees: Zane Alcorn David Bruce-Steer JonathanDoig Leigh Ewbank John Fisher Julie Knight PetraLiverani Annie Neilsen Dr Kate OBrien James Tonson Harry Troedel Huong Truong

2010

Tis wrk is license uner te Creative CmmnsAttributin-NnCmmercial-SareAlike 3.0

Unprte License. T view a cpy f tis license, visitttp:/ creativecmmns.rg/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ rsen a letter t Creative Cmmns, 171 Secn Street,Suite 300, San Francisc, Califrnia, 94105, USA.

ISBN: 978-0-9808258-0-0

Publise by University f MelburneEnergy Researc Institute, McCy BuilingCrner f Swanstn an Elgin StreetsUniversity f MelburneCarltn 3053, Victria, Australia

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Cver ptgrap: Markel Ren


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3.1.2 tecc speccs escp CSt p es 48

3.1.3 Sc p CSt 53

3.1.4 Cs epc ese ses CSt 55

3.1.5 Sz Cpc e 55

3.1.6 is ee 57

3.1.7 l use S te Ses 57

3.1.8 CSt we csp 60

3.1.9 CSt cs 61

3.2 w: Cep, Ce tecc ace 62

3.2.1 w Pe reees 62

3.2.2 S gepc des we Pek de 63

3.2.3 is ee esce eees 65

3.2.4 m es e CSt se 65

3.2.5 w spses pee ees 66

3.2.6 Cs es 66

3.3 me e ZCa2020 reee Eecc g 68

3.4 oe eee ee sces ee sec ckp 68

3.4.1 heecc pe ess spp peks se ee 68

3.4.2 bss C- CSt ps 69

3.4.3 bs s ee spp 703.5 is Pcesses 71

3.5.1 Eecc e s 71

3.5.2 Cse-s: Ces is c s e 72

3.5.3 Ze-esss see se 73

reeeces 75

P 4 me ZCa2020 reee ee spp 79

4.1 te ZCa2020 g me 804.2 dee oee e ZCa2020 g me 81

4.2.1 ic 81


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4.2.2 Ppse gee mx de 81

4.2.3 me Ccescs e me 82

4.2.4 Expes me be Se we Pes 82

4.3 h lee me ress 844.4 Ccss 86

4.4.1 ls fe wk 86

P 5 g l meeCe n g 87

5.1 up e g 89

5.1.1 g exescec eee ee ps e 91

5.1.2 Cec nEm, SwiS nwiS n g 91

5.1.3 ices ecee esece e exs 92

5.2 C Spp de 93

5.2.1 ms Pek de 93

5.2.2 Spp Se mee 95

5.2.3 de Se mee 95

5.2.4 Expes Sce 95

reeeces 96

P 6 resc e ts ipee 97

6.1 ipee tee 98

6.1.1 w Pe tee 99

6.1.2 S te (CSt) Pe tee 99

6.1.3 tsss iss 99

6.2 me resces 100

6.2.1 CSt Ccee, See gss 100

6.2.2 w Ccee See 101

6.2.3 tsss les Ccee, See a 101

6.2.4 t Ccee, See gss 1026.3 Esss res Csc 103

6.3.1 CSt ree Esss 103

6.3.2 w ree Esss 103

6.3.3 tsss isce 104

6.3.4 Ce t 104

6.4 mc 105

6.4.1 CSt mc Cpc 105

6.4.2 w mc Cpc 1066.5 Js 108

6.5.1 Ce Epe S Ee Pc 109


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6.5.2 Js S 109

6.5.3 Js w 109

6.5.4 Js ne tsss les 110

6.5.5 Js bss 1106.5.6 rp-p Cps Ce Epe 110

6.6 Ccs 111

fes 112

reeeces 112

P 7 Ecc Cpss 115

7.1 S Ecc fs 116

7.2 Ecc Cps:te ZCa2020 P s bsess-as-us 117

7.2.1 me ZCa2020 bau: wc Pes le-Cs Ee? 117

7.2.2 Cp e mes 118

7.2.3 oe uee Ecc bees 119

7.3 te ZCa2020 S Ee P iese e Cex oe Eccac 120

7.4 h c eecc cs e ZCa2020? 121

reeeces 123

Ccs 125

appeces 129

appex 1Ee de 130

appex 2Sse des Cs 138

appex 3aSc p S Pe tes 142

appex 3bPjece w Ee Cp Css 146

appex 4we use CSt ses 148

appex 5is Cse S 152

appex 6tsss upes 155

appex 7ipee tee Js 160

appex 8resce reees 165

appex 9Ecc Cps assps reeeces 169


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| x ZCa2020 S Ee P

Exece S


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| x ZCa2020 S Ee PExecutive Summary

just 3% f GdP ver ten years, t buil a zer-emissinsenergy system tat will last fr at least 30-40 years.

Te ZCA2020 researc team als fun tat mvingt 100% renewable energy by 2020 is well witin tefinancial an inustrial capability f Australias ecnmy.Te raw materials, an manufacturing an cnstructinlabur neee t implement te transitin are small wencmpare wit tse emplye every ay witin Australianinustry. Fr example, 80,000 cnstructin jbs will berequire at te peak f te ZCA2020 Plan installatin,equivalent t nly 8% f Australias present cnstructinwrkfrce. Tis is easily acievable given tat in teperi immeiately prir t te Glbal Financial Crisis,new cnstructin jbs were increasing at a rate f arun50,000 per year. Furtermre, te jbs create by te newrenewable energy ecnmy will mre tan ffset jb lssesin te fssil fuel inustries.

In narrw ecnmic terms te ZCA2020 Statinary EnergyPlan es nt impse a lng-term cst n te ecnmyabve business-as-usual. Tat is, te net present cstsfr bt scenaris calculate fr te peri 2010-2040are apprximately equal, at rugly $AU500 billin. Tiscalculatin ignres savings frm transprt fuel csts anpssible carbn pricing. Te ZCA2020 Plan is able t acievetis lw cst, because te pipeline f renewable energyprjects in te plan cntributes t te rapi reuctin in tecst f renewable energy. Cst reuctins frm increasecumulative capacity f tese tecnlgies are realise,as well as aviing future rising csts f fssil fuels fr

pwer statins. Aptin f te full ZCA2020 Plan prviessignificant ecnmic benefits, eliminates all epenence nfreign energy surces, an psitins Australia t lea inte 21st century renewable energy ecnmy.

decisive leaersip is nw neee frm gvernment,business, acaemia an te wier cmmunity fr tistransitin t begin.

Te Statinary Energy Plan is te first in a series f sixplans making up te ZCA2020 Prject. Future reprts willcver te sectrs f Transprt, Builings, Lan Use anAgriculture, Inustrial Prcesses an Replacing Fssil-Fuel

Exprt Revenue.

ZCa2020 S Ee P de

Te statinary energy sectr accunts fr almst 55% fAustralias Co

2equivalent emissins, wit all fssil fuels

accunting fr ver 70% f Australias emissins.

Te ZCA2020 Statinary Energy Plan escribes w trepwer Australias statinary energy sectr using 100%renewable surces by 2020. Te autrs acknwlege tatte Plan etaile erein is nt te nly way tat Australiacul acieve zer emissins frm te statinary energy

sectr. Wile nging innvatin will inee make it eveneasier an ceaper t meet te zer emissins target, teptin presente ere is available rigt nw.

te Ze C as 2020 SEe P (ZCa2020 P) s ee pcc p ecse eas s ee sec

ece.Current levels f greenuse gases in te atmspereare alreay sufficiently ig t carry te climate systempast significant tipping pints. Tey pse an unacceptablerisk f angerus an irreversible canges t te wrlsclimate, t biiversity, an terefre t uman civilisatin.Tese canges irectly affect Australias f an watersecurity, an increase te risk f reginal instability.

Using a glbal carbn buget apprac, recent wrkby te German Avisry Cuncil n Glbal Cangeemnstrates tat, t ave a tw-in-tree cance f

keeping glbal warming t less tan 2C abve pre-inustrial temperatures, evelpe natins wit te igestper capita rates f emissins, suc as te Unite Statesan Australia, wul nee t ecarbnise teir ecnmiesby 2020. Tere is increasing cnsensus tat te 2Ctresl is t ig an beyn a safe bunary, antat atmsperic carbn ixie must be reuce frm tecurrent level f arun 390 parts per millin (ppm) int terange f 300 t 350 ppm.

Fr tese reasns a timeline f ten years is recmmene.Ten years is a meaningful timeframe fr planning purpses,as it requires immeiate actin, wereas lnger an less

ambitius gals lea t alf-respnses an elay. overtis ten year peri, fssil fuel generating assets will beretire as new renewable energy infrastructure is brugtn line an securely integrate int te electricity supplysystem.

A grup f eicate iniviuals wit experience anexpertise in relevant energy inustry isciplines, many fwm wrk in te fssil fuel energy inustry, cllabratet evelp te Zer Carbn Australia 2020 StatinaryEnergy Plan.

only prven an cste tecnlgies are use in te

ZCA2020 Plan. Win pwer an cncentrating slartermal (CST) wit mlten salt strage are te tw primarytecnlgies use, prviing apprximately 40% an 60%f te energy mix respectively. Tese key energy surcesare backe up by a 2% annual cntributin frm crpwaste bimass an yrelectricity. detaile mellingwas unertaken t ensure tat te new renewable energysupply can meet all eman prjecte uner te ZCA2020Plan, 24 urs a ay, 7 ays a week, 365 ays a year.

Wen cmpare t ter natins, Australias renewableenergy resurces are amngst te best an te mstprfitable t evelp. Tus, tese resurces ffer a

strategic avantage fr all Australians as we prepare tcmpete in te future carbn-cnstraine glbal ecnmy.Te investment require t transitin Australias statinaryenergy sectr t renewables is a stimulus equivalent t


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rece oe Ee reees

Ttal elivere energy use uner te plan is reuce bymre tan alf, frm 3,915 PJ/yr (2008) t 1,660 PJ/yr(2020), wile maintaining te same level f energy services,

incluing transprt, eating an cling, inustrial energyuse an s n.

Tis is acieve trug a cmbinatin f energy efficiencymeasures, an by switcing energy services currentlyprvie wit il an natural gas, mstly fr transprt aneating, wit far mre efficient electrical systems.

Fr instance, ue t te inefficiency f internal cmbustinengines, less tan 20% f te fssil fuel energy cnsumeby te transprt sectr is actually cnverte int usefulveicular mtin, nce stp-start inefficiencies are factrein. on te ter an, electric rail an electric cars cnvert80-90% f electrical energy int mtin.

Similarly, space eating wit efficient eat pump systemsuses a small amunt f electricity t pump ambient eat -a renewable resurce - frm utsie. Typically, eat pumpsystems fr mestic an cmmercial builings will usebetween ne quarter an ne tir f te energy use bynatural gas r resistive electrical eating systems t prviete same amunt f eat.

A minr allwance is mae fr bigas an bifuels t meetenergy emans tat cannt be electrifie, tug tis iskept t a minimum.

fe Eecc-use Pe

Australian electricity an natural gas usage fluctuatescnsierably frm ay t ay an between seasns. Tismeans tat at present te energy generatin an istributininfrastructure is uner-utilise. Te ZCA2020 Plan emplysmeasures t flatten tis prfile n bt a aily an seasnalbasis s tat infrastructure is mre effectively use aninfrastructure investrs can acieve suitable ecnmicreturns.

Pe Cse reee Ee teces

Te Plan relies nly n existing, prven, cmmerciallyavailable an cste tecnlgies. Te Plan fun tat winan cncentrating slar termal (CST) pwer wit mltensalt eat strage are te mst apprpriate, cst effective,cmmercially available, an scalable tecnlgies freplyment in Australia.

"bee--bse" Eecc gee

String te suns energy as eat in te frm f t mltensalt allws CST plants t prvie pwer tat is better-tan-basela. Similar t a yrelectricity am, CST plants

wit eat strage can ispatc electricity as neee at verysrt ntice. Tis is acieve by using te eat frm testre mlten salt t pruce steam as necessary.

Te ten-year timeframe as been mappe ut taking intaccunt te nee fr initial grwt f te renewable energyinustry. Te timeframe cul be accelerate wit cntinuegrwt in later years r elaye if plicy actin is t slwhwever te reprt emnstrates tat suc a rapi transitinis witin Australias capacity.

Tere are a variety f plicy mecanisms tat cul facilitateimplementatin f te ZCA2020 Plan, wit funing prviefrm any mixture f public an private surces. It is beyn

te scpe f tis reprt t recmmen any particularfinancing r plicy mecanism.

Ke ees e P ce:

icese Eecc use

Australias annual electricity eman increases by ver40%, frm 822 PJ/yr (228 TW/yr) in 2008 t 1,170 PJ/yr (325 TW/yr) in 2020. Wile tis is mre electricityeman tan wul be require uner business-as-usualeman grwt, it is emnstrate tat wit a cmbinatin

f energy efficiency an fuel-switcing measures, tisis in fact sufficient t replace all fssil fuel use, incluingtransprt an eating.

Eec E-126 es be. ie: Seek


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one ZCA2020 CST mule cnsists f a net 217 MWeturbine, wit a mirrr fiel an mlten salt system sizet prvie termal energy fr 17 urs f strage. Air-cling f te pwer cycle is use instea f watercling in rer t minimise water requirements. Tese

slar termal plants are capable f running at a 72%annual capacity factr - mre tan te annual peratingcapacity f mst large black cal pwer plants perating inAustralia tay. Twelve slar sites arun Australia werecsen, eac wit installe capacity f 3,500MW per site.

w Sppes 40% Eecc de

Win pwer is generally te ceapest renewable energysurce t eply an is tecnlgically mature. Australiawever, currently as less tan 2,000 MWe f winturbine capacity installe. Te Plan prvies 48,000 MWef new installe turbine capacity running at an averageannual capacity factr f 30%. Tis cnsists f 6,4007.5 MW win turbines sprea ut ver 23 gegrapicallyiverse lcatins. detaile simulatins ave swn tat40% win pwer can be reaily integrate wit te CST-base electricity supply gri. Fr example, uring peris fig win spees, win generate electricity is ispatcet te gri first, wile te suns energy is use mainly teat salt fr strage. Cnversely, wen win spees arelw, te t mlten salt at CST plants is use t pruceextra steam fr te turbines an ence make up fr telull in win generatin. Base n etaile stuies frm teU.S.A., it is prjecte tat at least 15% f te installe win

capacity will always be prucing pwer, wit te samereliability as cnventinal basela pwer.

bss heecc bckp

Bimass an yrelectricity are use as cntingencybackup fr up t 2% f annual eman. Pelletise crpwaste bimass is prvie as a backup eat surce fr teCST plants t accmmate peris f extene clu cverin winter. Tis is similar t te way in wic natural gas isuse t backup sme existing CST plants. In bt cases, testeam system an ter pwer generatin infrastructure

f te CST plants functin witut regar t te surcef eat: sun, cmbuste bimass, r cmbuste naturalgas. Aequate backup can be prvie by prcessing just13% f waste straw resiue frm Australias annual weatcrp. Pelletisatin increases te energy ensity an csteffectiveness f te transprt f te bimass. Australiasexisting yrelectricity systems ave als been factre int prvie backup, tug at a iscunte rate t accuntfr future rugt peris.

Eecc tsss isce

Te ZCA2020 Plan prvies upgrae electricity griinfrastructure cnnecte t an ptimal selectin frenewable energy plant sites. Sites fr win an slarpwer generatin were csen n te basis f ata available

ace

Te Plan examines te acievability f te requiretransfrmatin, incluing labur an resurcerequirements an manufacturing capacity, an cnclues

tat tere are n resurce cnstraints tat prevent tetransitin t 100% renewable energy.

Eecc gee tec des

Te Plan prvies 100% f Australias electricitynees using te fllwing renewable energy surcesgegrapically isperse arun an imprve natinalgri. Tis gegrapic iversity is a majr cntributr tte cnsistency f te ZCA2020 pwer supply. detailemelling using real-wrl ata n a alf-urly timescaleas swn tat te prpse generatin mix is capable

f meeting 100% f electricity eman. Te system is infact able t generate at least 25% more pwer tan teprjecte 325TW/yr eman.

Cce S te (CSt) Pe meS Se sppes 60% Eecc de

Enviably, Australia as te best slar resurce f anyevelpe cuntry, an cncentrating slar termal pweris recgnise as te ptimal tecnlgy t explit tis. TePlan prvies CST pwer twers wit mlten salt strage,suc as tse available frm Trresl an Slar Reserve.

Pwer twers ffer te ual avantage f cntinue igperfrmance in winter, an iger perating temperaturesyear-run. Wit fully integrate mlten salt eat strage,frm wic steam can be pruce n eman, tese plantsprvie 24-ur electricity pructin. Crp-waste bimassfiring is use uring extene peris f cncurrent lwslar an win availability, as escribe belw. Inustryscale-up an cst reuctin trajectries ave been etaileby te U.S. department f Energy an Sargent & LunyCnsulting LLC. Cnsistent wit tese, after a capacity f8,700 MWe is installe glbally, slar termal pwer twerswill prvie electricity at a cst tat is cmpetitive witcnventinal cal pwer at 5-6 $AU cents/kW.

Ppse n reee g - see P 5 e


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| xx ZCa2020 S Ee PExecutive Summary

in Australia an verseas wit te capability f prucing300,000 t 500,000 cars per year.

ree iese Eccs cpe bsess-as-us

Te ZCA2020 plan requires a ttal investment f $AU370billin ver te peri 2011-2020. Annual investment,averaging $AU37 billin per year, will be lwer in initialyears an iger as te pace f cnstructin ramps up.Imprtantly, te up-frnt annual csts f cnstructin neenly be pai by investrs, nt by te Australian public. Aswit any energy infrastructure prject, up-frnt capitalcsts will be pai back ver time trug energy sales.Terefre te figure f $370 billin is nt an expense t teecnmy witut return. Rater it is a strategic investmenttat secures Australias zer-emissin future an results in

significant savings in future years.

Cmpare t Australias annual GdP f $AU1.2 trillin, teinvestment fr ZCA2020 represents 3% f GdP ver teten years. Tug te up-frnt investment require by tePlan is significant, maintaining business-as-usual (BAU) isnt witut its csts eiter. BAU requires $AU135 billinfr nging capital investments in energy infrastructurefr te peri 2011 t 2020, an ten cntinues t payfr increasingly expensive fssil fuels in later years, wit$AU300 billin in fuel csts. Altug te ZCA2020 Plansup-frnt investment is substantially iger tan BAU, tePlans lw nging csts result in ramatically reuce

expenitures ver te lng-term. Calculating net presentcsts n a lnger timeframe (2011-2040) emnstrates tatte ZCA2020 Statinary Energy Plan is abut te samecst as te BAU scenari.

Tese savings expan wen te braer ecnmic benefitsf te Plan are inclue. Te use f electricity t pwertransprt instea f il realises fuel cst savings f nearly$AU1,170 billin. Lastly, in te event tat a carbn price isimplemente, an estimate f te savings mae by aviingptential Co

2emissin carges sws tat te Plan

avis an aitinal $AU370 billin, raising ttal savings t$AU1,550 billin. Taking tese csts int accunt realises a

very rapi ecnmic payback f nly a few years.

Tis reprt als cmpares te ZCA2020 Plan csts t terpublic an private expenitures fr example, te annualZCA2020 investment is equal t wat Australians speneac year n insurance. Tis emnstrates tat te scalef te prjects escribe witin tis reprt are well witinte capacity an capability f te Australian ecnmy. Mreetaile ecnmic melling an plicy recmmenatinsare beyn te scpe f te ZCA2020 Statinary EnergyReprt. Future wrk will inclue a separate financing anplicy cument t be pruce at a later ate.

As a bencmark fr gauging te ecnmic impact f tePlan, a preliminary analysis as been ne base n nepssible funing scenari were te investment is pai frslely trug electricity retail revenue. If te prpse

frm NASA an Australian Gvernment bies. Empasiswas place n selecting sites wit ig year-run energyavailability s tat bt winter an summer peak electricityemans are met.

Electrical transmissin links are upgrae in rer tstrengten te Australian gri an cnnect te newrenewable energy installatins. New interstate cnnectinsenable greater imprt an exprt capability between tegegrapically iverse renewable energy resurces. TePlan prvies 500kV alternating current links t cnnectnew pwer statins near ppulate regins were tepwer is t be use lcally. Meanwile efficient higVltage direct Current (hVdC) links are prvie fr lw-lss lng-istance transmissin t cnnect specifie slarinstallatins an fr interstate cnnectins t areas f igelectricity eman. Te Plan cstings als allw fr supplyf 4,475 MW f ffgri electricity t la centres witut

gri access.

ace Epe

Implementatin f te plan wul require a rapi ramp-upf prjects an inustry. Te ten year timeframe takes intaccunt tat tis will nt appen vernigt, an wul seemst f te prpse infrastructure cmplete in te secnalf f te ecae. Mi-term gals are t ave 15,000 MWf win an 5,000 MW f CST peratinal by 2015. Tisrequires fast-tracking existing prjects an putting in placete rigt plicies t stimulate new prjects.

Te labur resurce requirements fr te implementatinare warfe by Australias existing inustrial capacity. TePlan wul require a peak f 80,000 cnstructin wrkersby 2016, ut f an existing wrkfrce f almst ne millin.Prir t te Glbal Financial Crisis f 2008, te cnstructinwrkfrce was grwing at te rate f 50,000 new jbs peryear. Similarly in manufacturing, melling as allwefr 50% f te manufacturing f win turbine cmpnentsan CST elistat mirrrs t be ne nsre. Tis wulcreate up t 30,000 new jbs, ut f Australias existingmanufacturing wrkfrce f ne millin wic is prjectet ecline uner business-as-usual. Te Plan wul create a

furter 45,000 nging jbs in peratins an maintenancef te renewable energy infrastructure, wic wul mretan ffset te lss f arun 20,000 jbs in te mesticfssil energy supply sectr.

Te raw materials require by te Plan are primarilycncrete, steel an glass, nne f wic are cnstraineby supply. Te Plan wul require te equivalent f nly7% f Australias current cncrete pructin, wilesurcing steel an glass wul require sme increase ineiter mestic pructin r imprts. Te manufacturingf elistats an win turbine cmpnents wul requirete setting up f several new factries f a similar size t

nes tat alreay exist verseas. Fr example, it is feasibletat te pructin f 600,000 elistats per year cul bene in a single factry, as tere are alreay car factries


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| xx ZCa2020 S Ee PExecutive Summary

STe fllwing capters sw in etail w te transitin ta Zer Carbn Australian ecnmy can be acieve usingtecnlgy tat is cmmercially available tay. Tere aren tecnical barriers t tis eplyment. Implementingte prpse infrastructure in ten years is well witinte capability f Australias existing inustrial capacity.ZCA2020 utlines a ecisive an acievable transitinblueprint fr a 100% renewable energy future wicwul psitin Australia as a leaer in te emerging glbalrenewable energy ecnmy. Wat is require t make tisappen is leaersip trug actin frm plicymakers an

sciety, wit firm ecisins mae quickly tat will allw tistransitin t ccur.

infrastructure was fune wit revenue frm electricity

prices at a stanar rate f return fr regulate assets, itwul require a price rise f arun 6.5c/kW by 2020,equivalent t te existing premium fr GreenPwer tay.Tis sul nt be taken as a recmmenatin f teZCA2020 Plan, but it es prvie a useful inicatin f tecsts invlve. Tis price increase wul cst apprximately$AU420 per usel per year, r $AU8 per uselper week, by 2020, an is a similar electricity price riset wat may be expecte in Australias business-as-usualelectricity market. Tere are f curse varius plicyptins tat cul fun te Plan in ifferent ways an wulnt require electricity price increases. Als, furter etaile

esign t te Plan in later versins may ecrease tis price,as mre etaile melling an infrmatin cmes t an.

bSce S te Pe te


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| 1 ZCa2020 S Ee P

P 1

ic oee

Ces

1.1 w Ze Esss? 2

1.2 w te yes? 3

1.3 g Pcpes, assps Pjec me 4

1.4 S tec Cces 5

1.5 te ZCa2020 Pjec e S Ee P 5

1.6 Sce e S Ee P rep 6

1.7 te ZCa2020 wk gp 61.7.1 The Future of ZCA2020 6

fes 7

reeeces 7


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| 2 ZCa2020 S Ee PPart 1: Introduction and overview

[t]his goal is achievable, affordable and transformative.u.S. viCE PrESidEnt al gorE, announCing hiS ProPoSal to

rE-PowEr amEriCa with ClEan ElECtriCity in tEn yEarS1

We know the country that harnesses the power of clean,renewable energy will lead the 21st century

u.S. PrESidEnt obama2

1.1 w Ze Esss?

Present atmsperic levels f Co2 are at 390ppm3, well

abve te pre-inustrial levels f 275 t 285 ppm (Ad1000-1750)4. Furtermre, atmsperic Co2 cncentratinas been grwing rapily fr te last 40 years [nte 1].Many climate scientists nw believe tat Co2 levels mustbe reuce frm tays cncentratins t avi triggeringangerus tipping pint mecanisms6,7[nte 2].

Tipping pints are serius because nce tey are passe,a return t a nrmal climate situatin may be impssible.Fr example, if glbal average temperatures increase by4C , te uge carbn stres in te nrtern circumplarpermafrst zne (estimate at 1,672 gigatnnes) may bevulnerable t irreversible release8. Figure 1.1 sws tat tecurrent rate f lss f summer arctic sea ice is exceeingwrst-case IPCC preictins.

Many scientists ave state tat te maximum safelevel f atmsperic Co2 cncentratin is 350 ppm rlessa level significantly belw te present atmsperic

cncentratin f 390 ppm[nte 3]. It is nt t latea rapian ecisive reuctin in Co2 emissins can return us tsafe atmsperic levels wit a reasnable prbability faviing angerus tipping pints. hwever, tis can nly be

te Ze C as 2020 SEe P es ecc ese,pcc, ecc ces 100% eee ee

as e es. te p s ecess espse e sk jce ce.

As gvernments cntinue t grapple wit te prblem fw t sift t lw-carbn scieties, te evience muntstat nly a rapi transitin t a zer-carbn ecnmy canensure climate an energy security fr us all. Mitigatingclimate cange in an incremental manner ignres teptentially catastrpic effects we face if glbal warmingtipping pints are passe. Mving t a zer-carbnecnmy requires cncerte effrts acrss all natinal

gvernments an acrss multiple sectrs incluingStatinary Energy, Transprt, Builing Efficiency, InustrialPrcesses an Lan Use.

Many ifferent factrs sape actin t mitigate climatecange. Scietal an plitical barriers are quiteifferent frm tecnical barriers. Tis reprt is aime atemnstrating te tecnical an financial feasibility f rllingut a 100% renewable energy system in Australia ver tenext ten years. Imprtantly, nly cmmercially availabletecnlgy is specifie, t sw tat suc a rll-ut culstart tay. Tis reprt es nt aress te plitical anscial impeiments t beginning suc a Plan. It is aime at

cncluing te ebate abut weter renewable energy aste capability t keep te weels f inustry turning, in rert enable te scial an plitical canges tat will lea t tetransitin t 100% renewable energy. Te 2020 timeframeis mtivate by te best available climate science. Wile anyelay t te rll-ut f suc a ten-year ecaal plan culstill see a 100% renewable sectr acieve at a later ate,tis cmes wit greater risk f exceeing safe limits witinte Earts climate system.

Tis reprt fcuses n te Statinary Energy sectr inAustralia. Subsequent reprts will aress te ter carbnemitting sectrs f te ecnmy. Te ZCA2020 Statinary

Energy Plan allws Australia t play a respnsible,cnstructive an leaing rle in prmting ecisive actinfr climate prtectin arun te wrl. Fr te remainerf tis cument, unless terwise efine, te ZCA2020Statinary Energy Plan will be referre t as te Plan rte ZCA2020 Plan.

Tere are a number f ptential pats t a zer-emissinsstatinary energy system. Tis Plan ffers ne pssibleslutin base n renewable resurces, using existingprven an reliable tecnlgies, suc tat te csts anliabilities f te Plan can be rigrusly assesse. In tisregar, te Plan cncrs wit an emerging view tat

natinal scale renewable systems are nt nly tecnicallyan ecnmically viable, but are likely t accrue significantbenefits t te natins tat first implement tem.

figurE 1.1acc Se ice Exesee ss ess iPCCecss 9


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wul be tat ter ric cuntries, wit te igest per-capita emissins, suc as Australia12, wul nee t pursuete same gal. As Figure 1.2 epicts, te glbal bugetper-capita (te blue blck in te backgrun) sws tatte maximum per-capita emissins allwe acrss all

ppulatins f te wrl wul nee t be limite t arun110 tnnes f Co2 per-capita (2.75 tnnes per-capita perannum ver a peri f 40 years).

As suc, cuntries wit ig per-capita emissins (sucas te USA r Australia [nte 4]) ave less tan ten yearst cut teir emissins t zer. At te current Australianemissins rate f abut 20 tnnes per-capita per annum,ur emissins buget wul run ut in five years. If insteawe begin reucing emissins sner, we cul extente buget t ten years. As a cuntry wit ig per-capitaemissins, Australia as te pprtunity t be a catalystfr ter cuntries (particularly cuntries wit ig ttal

emissins but lw per-capita emissins, suc as Cina anInia) by inspiring actin n climate cange an evelpingrenewable energy inustries.

A transitin in ten years may seem callenging, but tewrl as seen remarkably fast ecnmic transitins inte past; te restructuring f te Unite States ecnmyuring te Secn Wrl War is a ntable example13. A tenyear transfrmatin peri as als been nminate by AlGre14. In is 2008 speec calling fr America t mve t100% renewable energy witin ten years , Al Gre sai: Ttse w say ten years is nt enug time, I respectfullyask tem t cnsier wat te wrls scientists are telling

us abut te risks we face if we nt act in ten years. Tenyears is abut te maximum time tat we as a natin canl a steay aim an it ur target.14

Tere are many aitinal reasns fr Australia planningimmeiate an eep cuts t emissins. Glbal warming aste ptential t create irreversible eclgical cange, anAustralia is at particular risk f biiversity reuctin15. Witur agricultural an water systems als at particular risk,climate cange treatens ur natinal security.

Global average temperature increases of 1.5 or 2.0C abovepre-industrial levels will likely lead to a massive loss of

biodiversity worldwide. ... The more effectively the rate ofclimate change can be slowed and the sooner climate can bestabilised, the better are the prospects that biodiversity losswill be lessened.

Summary of a rEPort to thE natural rESourCE

managEmEnt miniStErial CounCil CommiSSionEd by thE

auStralian govErnmEnt, 200916

Tere is wiesprea recgnitin tat tse w lea terenewable energy race will reap significant ecnmicbenefits. Alreay, several Australian renewable energytecnlgy firms ave mve ffsre t take avantagef mre supprtive an frwar-lking regulatry

envirnments. Tese inclue te nw multi-millin llarcrpratins Ausra (nw Frenc-wne) an Suntec (nwCina-base). Te dESERTEC prgram is pressing aeawit plans t buil a vast netwrk f slar termal plants

acieve trug te implementatin f urgent, purpsefulactin by gvernments t quickly reuce antrpgeniccarbn emissins t zer.

If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that onwhich civilization developed and to which life on Earth isadapted .... CO2will need to be reduced from its current 385ppm to at most 350 ppm.

hanSEn Et al, 20086

... any reasonably comprehensive and up-to-date look at theevidence makes clear that civilization has already generateddangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system.What keeps me going is my belief that there is still a chanceof avoiding catastrophe.

John P. holdrEn, EnErgy and EnvironmEnt EXPErt

at harvard univErSity, PrESidEnt of thE amEriCan

aSSoCiation for thE advanCEmEnt of SCiEnCE, and

PrESidEntial SCiEnCE adviSor to baraCK obama10

1.2 w te yes?

Te Plan lks nt nly at w t implement a zer-greenuse gas emissin energy sectr, but als w tacieve tis witin a ten year timeframe, frm a tecnicalperspective. It is recgnise tat tis is neee t prperlyaress te treat f severe an ptentially irreversibleclimate cange.

Te premise f a ten year timeframe t acieve zer

emissins eces several leaing acaemics an publicfigures. In a recent reprt frm te German AvisryCuncil n Glbal Cange (WBGU), Prf. hans JacimScellnuber (directr f te Ptsam Institute fr ClimateImpact Researc) inicate tat, in rer t ave a tw-in-tree cance f keeping glbal warming belw 2C verpre-inustrial levels, an using a glbal per-capita carbnbuget apprac, it wul be necessary fr te USA treuce emissins t zer by 20209. An extensin t tis

18

20

8

10

12

14

16

CO2

percapita

USA (& Australia)

China

India

Burkina Faso

Global budget per

capita assuming

constant annual

emissions

0

2

4

6

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

t

figurE 1.2

C e 20102050: Esss ps pecp seece ces (pe)11


27/194


ineterminate lengt. A zer emissins plan is nt simplyan accelerate lw emissins strategy. The point of a rapidtransition to a zero emissions economy is not to just proceedfurther along the same path that will take us to a low emissionseconomy over 50 years or so.

Wit tis in min, te ZCA2020 wrking grup as framete evelpment f te wle Prject witin te fllwingset f guiing principles t prvie clarity f irectin antransparency f purpse. Pe ree Ss. A plan fr transitin

t a zer emissins ecnmy beginning nw requiresus t use te best f wat is nw available. Tere avebeen majr avances in renewable energy tecnlgyver recent years, an it is pssible t mve t azer emissins ecnmy witut waiting fr furtertecnlgies t be evelpe22. Cnsequently, te Plancnsiers nly tecnlgical slutins tat are alreay

cmmercially available frm existing cmpanies wicffer te tecnlgy at a multi-megawatt scale, anave mve beyn small-scale emnstratin anpilt prjects.

ipee fex. Wile te Plan nlycnsiers cmmercially prven tecnlgies at teutset, te ZCA2020 wrking grup leaves pente ptin f subsequent incrpratin f new aninnvative tecnlgies as tey becme cmmerciallyavailable, if tey will reuce te cst f te transitinan/r tey ave fewer assciate envirnmental rscial impacts. Example tecnlgies tat te ZCA2020

wrking grup anticipates may becme cmmerciallyavailable uring te 10 year transitin peri incluearrays f Australian Natinal Universities 500 m2 SG4cncentrating slar termal Big dises,24 an CarnegieCrpratins CETo III Wave Tecnlgy25,26.

a Sc Ee S. Te ZCA2020 Prjectwill seek t ensure tat scial equity in Australia ismaintaine r enance uring te transitin t a zeremissins ecnmy. In particular, tis slutin willcntinue t prvie equitable access t energy fr allAustralians tay, wile ensuring tat te csts anburens are nt eferre t future generatins.

ts fes. Wereas a lng-term lw emissins

plan may recmmen te use f natural (r petrleum)gas as a transitin fuel, suc a uble transitin isnt cnsiere because it necessarily ties Australiat cntinue fssil fuel emissins beyn te Planstimeframe, an wul see mney tat cul terwisebe spent n renewable generatin capacity iverteint fssil fuel infrastructure.

tec Seec. As wit te iea f transitinfuels, investment in s-calle transitin tecnlgieswill nly serve t ivert funing an attentin frmevelping true zer emissins slutins. An examplewul be te evelpment f mre efficient petrl

riven cars at te expense f investing in an electrifietransprt system tat can be pwere frm a renewableenergy gri.

acrss Nrt Africa, te Mile East an Eurpe17 wileSpain will ave 2.5 gigawatts (GW) f slar termal pwercnnecte t te gri by 2013.18 In terms f renewableresurces, Australia as all te natural avantages f tedESERTEC prpsal, wit nne f its multi-natinal plitical

impeiments.Cina as begun t invest eavily in renewable energy,ubling its win pwer capacity every year fr te last5 years, nw aving 25 GW as f 2009. Cina as a targetf 150 GW f win by 2020, but if it cntinues its currentrate f installatin it will reac 150 GW by 2015five yearsaea f sceule. Tis scale f grwt is impressive anactually accunts fr ne tir f te ttal glbal winpwer grwt19,20.

As tese an ter cuntries take actins wic reuceteir reliance n cal, Australia as te pprtunity t mvebeyn its quarry visin,21 wic sees te success f urecnmy strngly tie t fssil fuel exprts, an lk insteat reap te ecnmic benefits f being amng te leaers inzer emissins tecnlgy innvatin.

The credit crunch has been brutal for solar start-ups in theWest, but not for Chinese firms with access to almost freefinance from the state banking system. They have takenadvantage of the moment to flood the world with solarpanels, driving down the retail price from $4.20 per wattlast year to nearer $2 in what some say is a cut-throat drivefor market share ... We may soon be moving into a phaseof history when ill-prepared countries cannot be sure of

obtaining energywhatever the price.ambroSE EvanS-PritChard 22

By csing t becme a leaer in te race twars zeremissins, Australia as te pprtunity t secure its f,water an energy supplies fr te future, an buil a newan rbust ecnmy as a glbal renewable pweruse.Tese arguments all prmte te case fr immeiate actin.

I think that the word now has to creep into the vocabularyof people in public policy.

S david frEEman, uS EnErgy adviSor

and formEr hEad of tEnESSEE vallEy authority 23

1.3 g Pcpes, assps Pjec me

A zer emissins targetnt a lw emissins target. TeZCA2020 Prject is base n a zer emissins metlgyunerpinne by a set f guiing principles. Tese principlesrelate t te use f prven tecnlgy slutins an teacievement f scial equity gals wit minimal isruptin tf, water an energy supplies.

Te Plan iffers frm ter emissins reuctins plans in

tat, frm te utset, it seeks a target f zer emissinswitin ten years. Mst ter transitin plans aim t mvetwars a lw emissins ecnmy ver a peri f


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1.5 te ZCa2020 Pjec eS Ee P

Te ZCA2020 Prject cnsists f six inter-relate reprts,eac aressing a specific Plan. Te ZCA2020 StatinaryEnergy Plan is te first an mst urgent f tese, since 50%f Australias emissins are generate by te statinaryenergy sectr.

Te cmplete set f ZCA2020 reprts t be pruce are: Reprt 1: Te ZCA2020 Statinary Energy Plan

aresses te re-pwering f Australias statinaryenergy sectr wit zer emissins tecnlgy

Reprt 2: Te ZCA2020 Builings Plan cnsiersmeasures t imprve energy efficiency, an encereuce te eman fr statinary energy

Reprt 3: Te ZCA2020 Transprt Plan is cncernewit pwering private an public transprtatin witrenewable electricity

Reprt 4: Te ZCA2020 Inustrial Prcesses Planaresses measures t reuce emissins frm inustry

Reprt 5: Te ZCA2020 Lan Use Plan cnsierscanges t agriculture, frestry an ter lan usepractices t minimise emissins

Reprt 6: Te ZCA2020 Plan fr Replacing Cal ExprtRevenue fcuses n Australias large fssil fuel exprts.

Te reprts will be inter-relate an cmplementary. Asan example, te esign f te statinary energy supply

m ipc f, we Ee Sppes.Te transitin t a zer emissins ecnmy sul aimt s witut cmprmising Australias f, wateran energy security.

1.4 S tec Cces

Wile te cices f energy tecnlgies are etaile witreferences in Part 2 f te reprt, tey are summariseere t ai te reaer in unerstaning wy te guiingprinciples utline abve le t te csen tecnlgymix. Tere are cmmnly el perceptins tat renewableenergy as a limite future because te win esntalways blw an te sun esnt sine at nigt. Te aim anscpe f tis reprt is t sw tat tis is nt an issue, ant emnstrate te feasibility f 100% renewable energyin Australia witin te next ten years. Instea f fcusingn varius negative aspects f te tecnlgies we avent csen, te autrs wis t sw te psitive aspectsf te renewable tecnlgies tat are alreay available treplace fssil fuels.

Te cnclusins relating t tecnlgy cices are asfllws: Win, slar ptvltaics an cncentrating slar

termal wit strage are cmmercially prven, scaleableslutins tat tgeter can ensure reliable, 24-urrenewable energy supply.

Bimass an yr are cmmercial renewable ptins

tat are limite in teir scaleability ue t terenvirnmental cnsieratins. Tey are better suite tsupplying backup an balancing pwer t win an slar.Bimass is als neee fr its carbn cntent t replacenn-energy-relate cemical carbn requirements.

Wave, tial an enance getermal pwer aretecnlgies tat are n te rizn, but as yet avent vercme all tecnical urles nr ave tey beenemnstrate at scale.

Carbn capture an strage (CCS) is similarly anunprven tecnlgy, tat is nt expecte t becmmercially available witin te ZCA2020 timeframe.It is als nt a zer-emissins slutin, as even sul

it be emnstrate at scale, prpse prjects are ntexpecte t capture 100% f fssil fuel plant emissins.

Nuclear pwer is igly unlikely t be viable in Australiaver a ten-year peri, as cuntries tat alreay ave anuclear pwer inustry experience implementatin timesfr nuclear plants in te rer f 10-19 years fr singlereactrs.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

54%

15%

7%6%

16%

3%

Stationary

Energy

Transport Fugitive

Emissions

From Fuel

Industrial

Processes

Agricultural Waste

Emissions(MtCO2-e)

figurE 1.3as geese gs ie 200727


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1.7 te ZCa2020 wk gp

Te cncept f a plan t acieve zer-emissins energyin ten years riginally came frm Beyn Zer Emissins,

mtivate by te scientific evience tat atmspericcncentratins f greenuse gases are alreay t ig.BZE put tgeter an entusiastic expert team f engineersan scientists wit relevant inustry an acaemicbackgruns w wrke pr-bn t evelp te plan.

As ne f te prject leaers Patrick hearps, frm TeUniversity f Melburnes Energy Institute, recruite a teamf University researcers an alumni, ubling te capacityf te prject. Te Melburne Energy Researc Institute asreviewe te plan, an publises it as part f its AustralianSustainable Energy series.

1.7.1 te fe ZCa2020

Te ZCA2020 prject is an nging initiative. It is acllabratin f pr bn cntributrs, an mre peple witrelevant expertise an interests are welcme t cntribute.Te current publicatin is Versin 1.0 f te StatinaryEnergy Plan. Future wrk inclues nt nly te terZCA2020 reprts, but upate versins f te StatinaryEnergy Plan tat take int accunt mre in-ept analysis,upate figures n energy prjectins, melling witimprve ata, an any new tecnlgical evelpments.

In te meantime, upates t te Plan will be available nline.It is nt te intent f te ZCA2020 Statinary Energy Plant cmment r recmmen any particular financial r plicymecanisms tat wul lea t te rll-ut f te prpsetransitin. Tere are a range f plicy instruments tat canbe use, wic sul all be juge by teir effectivenessin acieving a esire utcme. Te Plan emnstrates neptential utcme. hwever, future wrk will als invlvea separate publicatin iscussing financial an ecnmicplicies in te cntext f te ZCA2020 plan.

system (Reprt 1) must inclue prjectins f emanan efficiencies frm Reprts 2, 3 an 4. Furtermre,emissins reuctins acieve in te statinary energysectr will ave flw n effects in ter sectrs (Reprts2, 3 an 4) because, fr example, electricity will becme a

lw emissins energy surce relative t gas. Te StatinaryEnergy Plan is release in Versin 1.0 frm prir t terelease f te ter five cmpnents f te final reprt, inrer t allw fr iscussin an feeback at te earliestpprtunity. Te remaining five reprts f te ZCA2020Prject will be cmplete fllwing te release f tisreprt. Ultimately, eac reprt will be cmbine int a singlecument t frm a cmpreensive Plan fr reacing zeremissins in Australia ver a ten year peri.

1.6 Sce e S

Ee P repTe structure f te Plan is as fllws: P 2 escribes te esign f te prpse statinary

energy system (incluing te implicatins f te sizean pattern f prjecte eman), an verview f teavailable zer-emissins tecnlgies, an te ratinalefr te cice an weigting f tese tecnlgies.

P 3 prvies a blueprint fr te installatin f te100% renewable electricity infrastructure, incluingspecificatins, prpse lcatins, csts an installatintimelines.

P 4 sws energy melling n real-time meter-lgical ata tat emnstrates te reliability f te Plansspecifie gri.

P 5 sws w te new renewable energyinfrastructure integrates int an upgrae gri t ensurereliable supply f electricity. It aresses te significantupgraes t transmissin netwrks tat will be requirein rer t transitin t 100% renewable energy.

P 6 escribes te resurcing f te transitin, interms f mbilising te material an uman resurcesrequire witin te ten-year timeline.

P 7 cmpares te investment fr te Statinary

Energy Plan wit te Business-as-Usual case, puttingte scale f te financial investment int cntext witAustralias ter present ay expenitures.

Te basis fr te energy eman estimates use witinte Statinary Energy Plan are erive frm wrk alreayunertaken n te remaining ZCA2020 reprts. Teseremaining five reprts are currently in evelpmentan terefre it is pssible tat te prjecte statinaryenergy eman may cange frm te estimates in tisinitial versin f te Plan. Neverteless, te same esignprinciples wul apply t te prpse statinary energysystem wen upate eman figures becme available.

Similarly, altug te current figures fr csting are well-infrme estimates, it is feasible tat te figures in laterversins f te Plan may be iger r lwer, epening nupates relating t tecnlgies an prpse efficiencies.


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fes1. The absolute growth rate of CO2in the atmosphere has increased substantially: the

first 50 ppm increase above the pre-industrial value was reached in the 1970s after

more than 200 years, whereas the second 50 ppm occurred in about 30 years. In

the 10 years from 1995 to 2005, atmospheric CO2increased by about 19 ppm; the

highest average growth rate recorded for any decade since direct atmospheric CO2

measurements began in the 1950s5.

2. While we normally tend to think of climate as having its own inherent equilibrium,

the concept of a tipping point mechanism7breaks this rule, creating a situation

where large scale climate systems can finally switch into a different state, which is

qualitatively different from past history, and recovery may be impossible. Tipping

point mechanisms include positive feedback, phase transitions with hysteresis, and

bifurcations.

3. Hansen recommends that atmospheric CO2concentration be reduced to 350 ppm

at most (but preferably less) to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilisation

developed, and to which life is adapted6. Schellnhuber et al base their strategy on

keeping temperature rise below a guardrail of 2C rise above 1990 levels9. They do

not specify a particular concentration of atmospheric CO2, but strongly suggest that

we should return to pre-industrial levels of atmospheric CO2(280 ppm) to avoid the

risks of untested long term climate conditions.

4. Australia and USA have virtually the same per capita emissionsAustralia 19.00

tonnes per capita per annum, USA 19.7 tonnes per capita per annum (2006 data) 12.

reeeces1. Gre, A., July 17, 2008, Gre asks U.S. t abann fssil fuels, New

York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/17/world/americas/17iht-

gre.4.14582865.tml, Accesse: 2009-06-05

2. 2009, obama, B., Aress t jint sessin f Cngress, Witeuse Press

office, ttp://www.witeuse.gv/te_press_ffice/remarks-f-presient-

barack-bama-aress-t-jint-sessin-f-cngress/, Accesse: 2010-06-17

3. Tans, P., 2010, NoAA ESRL data, Natinal oceanic an Atmsperic

Aministratin, ftp://ftp.cml.naa.gv/ccg/c2/trens/c2_mm_ml.txt,

Accesse: 2010-04-12

4. IPCC, 2007, IPCC Furt Assessment Reprt: Climate Cange 2007, Wrking

Grup I: Te Pysical Science Basis (2.3.1 Atmsperic Carbn dixie), ttp://

www.ipcc.c/publicatins_an_ata/ar4/wg1/en/c2s2-3.tml, Accesse:

2010-05-06

5. UNFCCC, 2010, Kyt Prtcl, ttp://unfccc.int/kyt_prtcl/items/2830.

pp, Accesse: 2010-04-18

6. hansen J. et al., 2008, Target Atmsperic Co2: Were Sul humanityAim?, Clumbia University, ttp://www.clumbia.eu/~je1/2008/

TargetCo2_20080407.pf, Accesse: 2010-01-11

7. Lentn T. M. et al., 2008, Tipping elements in te Earts climate system,

ttp://www.pnas.rg/cntent/105/6/1786.full.pf+tml, Accesse: 2010-04-26

8. Scuur, E. et al., 2008, Vulnerability f Permafrst Carbn t Climate Cange:

Implicatins fr te Glbal Carbn Cycle, BiScience, 58(8), pp 701-714, doI

10.1641/B580807

9. Scellnuber h. J. et al., 2009, Slving te climate ilemma: Te buget

appracSpecial reprt, 10, German Avisry Cuncil n Glbal Cange

(WBGU), ttp://www.wbgu.e/wbgu_sn2009_en.pf, Accesse: 2010-04-28

10. Revkin, A., January 1, 2007, A New Mile Stance Emerges in debate

over Climate, New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/01/

science/01climate.tml?_r=2&_r, Accesse: 2009-06-05

11. Scellnuber, h. J., September 28-30, 2009, Terra Quasi-Incgnita: Beyn

te 2C Line, Presentatin at te Internatinal Climate Cnference: 4 degrees

an Beyn, pp 10, ttp://www.eci.x.ac.uk/4egrees/ppt/1-1scellnuber.pf,

Accesse: 2010-01-18

12. Unite Natins Statistics divisin, 2009, Envirnmental Inicatrs

Greenuse Gas Emissins, ttp://unstats.un.rg/uns/envirnment/air_c2_

emissins.tm, Accesse: 2010-01-23

13. Svacl, B. & Watts, C., 2009, Ging Cmpletely Renewable: Is It Pssible (Letalne esirable), Te Electricity Jurnal, 22(4), pp 95-111

14. Gre, A., Jul 17, 2008, A Generatinal Callenge T Repwer America by Al

Gre, AlGre.rg, ttp://www.algre.rg/generatinal_callenge_repwer_

america_al_gre, Accesse: 2009-06-05

15. 2002, Climate cange impacts n biiversity in Australiaoutcmes f

a wrksp spnsre by te Bilgical diversity Avisry Cmmittee,

ttp://www.envirnment.gv.au/biiversity/publicatins/greenuse/pubs/

greenuse.pf, Accesse: 2010-06-18

16. 2009, Summary f a reprt t te Natural Resurce Management Ministerial

Cuncil cmmissine by te Australian Gvernment, ttp://www.

climatecange.gv.au/~/meia/publicatins/biiversity/biiversity-summary-

plicy-makers.asx, Accesse: 2010-06-17

17. desertec Funatin, 2010, Te desertec Cncept, ttp://www.esertec.rg/

en/cncept/, Accesse: 2010-04-19

18. Prterm Slar, Apr 9, 2010, La inustria slar termelctrica espala inicia

el espegue, Prterm Slar, t tp://www.prtermslar.cm/bletines/

bletin24.tml#estacas01, Accesse: 2010-04-19

19. Glbal Win Energy Cuncil, 2010, Cina, Glbal Win Energy Cuncil, ttp://

www.gwec.net/inex.pp?i=125, Accesse: 2010-04-19

20. Green Blg, Feb 15, 2010, Gains in Glbal Win Capacity Reprte, Te New

York Times, http://greeninc.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/15/gains-in-global-

win-capacity-reprte/, Accesse: 2010-04-18

21. 2009, Pearse, G., Quarry Visin: Cal, Climate Cange an te En f te

Resurces Bm, Quarterly Essay 33

22. Evans-Pritcar, A., Aug 23, 2009, Cina pwers aea as it seizes te green

energy crwn frm Eurpe, Te Telegrap, ttp://www.telegrap.c.uk/

finance/cmment/6077374/Cina-pwers-aea-as-it-seizes-te-green-

energy-crwn-frm-Eurpe.tml, Accesse: 2009-09-05

23. Kreisler, h., Sep 29, 2003, Energy, Cnservatin an te Public Interest:

Cnversatin wit S. davi Freeman, Institute f Internatinal Stuies, UC

Berkeley, ttp://glbetrtter.berkeley.eu/peple3/Freeman/freeman-cn5.

tml, Accesse: 2009-06-05

24. Lvegrve, K., dec 2009, Cncentrating Slar Termal Gaters Mmentum,

Presentatin at te Slar 09AuSES Annual Cnference, ttp://meia.

beynzeremissins.rg/keitlvegrve%20presentatin%20dec%2009.pf,

Accesse: 2010-01-31

25. Carnegie Wave Energy Limite, 2009, Wat is CETo, Carnegie Wave EnergyLimite, ttp://www.carnegiewave.cm/inex.pp?url=/cet/wat-is-cet,

Accesse: 2010-04-18

26. Beyn Zer Emissins, Jan 29, 2010, Beyn Zer talks t Greg Allen f

Western Australia wave pwer evelper Carnegie Crpratin, Beyn

Zer Emissins, ttp://beynzeremissins.rg/meia/rai/beyn-zer-

talks-greg-allen-western-australia-wave-pwer-evelper-carnegie-100129,

Accesse: 2010-01-31

27. Australian Gvernment, department f Climate Cange, 2009, Natinal

Greenhouse Gas Inventoryaccounting for the KYOTO target May 2009,

department f Climate Cange, ttp://www.climatecange.gv.au/climate-

cange/~/meia/publicatins/greenuse-reprt/natinal-greenuse-gas-

inventry-pf.asx, Accesse: 2010-05-08


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Ces

2.1 oee e ZCa2020 S Ee PSpp Sse 10

2.2 ass Ce as Esss Ee-use tes 112.2.1 Australian Greenhouse Gas Emissions 112.2.2 Current Australian Energy Consumption 11

2.3 as Ee de 2020 e e P 132.3.1 Energy Efficiency Measures Employed to Reduce

Overall Energy Demand 152.3.2 Buildings: Energy Efficiency and Retrofitting 152.3.3 Transport Electrification and Mode Shift to Public

Transport 162.3.4 Industrial Energy Reductions 19

2.4 Ppse Pe de e e ZCa2020 P 202.4.1 Seasonal Variation and Shift of Demand from a

Summer Peak 202.4.2 Baseload and Peaking under Current Electricity

Supply 212.4.3 Flattening Electricity Demand Peaks 22

2.5 Cs fese, Cs Eece Ze-EsssSs 232.5.1 Australias Solar Resource 232.5.2 Concentrating Solar Thermal PowerThe Most

Suitable Large-Scale Solar Technology 232.5.3 Smaller-Scale Solar Technologies 282.5.4 Wind Power 292.5.5 Biomass 322.5.6 Hydroelectric PowerMeeting Peak Electricity

Demand and Energy Storage 332.5.7 Non-commercial Technologies 342.5.8 Lifecycle Emissions of Energy Technologies 34

reeeces 38


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| 10 ZCa2020 S Ee PPart 2: Designing the system | 10 S Ee Sec rep

Seasnal energy eman variatin, an ways f flatteningeman curves, are als examine in etail. In particular,te strng peaking influence f Victrian cl weater gaseman can be mitigate trug a large-scale rllut fbuiling insulatin an integrate ptvltaic tecnlgy in

Victria.In rer t meet te new eman curves, te ZCA2020Plan recmmens te fllwing cmmercially-availablegeneratin tecnlgies: Ccee S te (CSt) Pe tes

e s e se: meeting 60% felectricity eman trugut te year;

w pe: meeting te remaining 40% f eman; Cp-se ss eecc: prviing

backup fr 2% f te eman, wen simultaneus lullsin slar an win cause srtfalls in supply;

n g: flattening eman peaks an integrating

CST, win an backup energy surces, t prviereliable supply.

Cncentrating slar termal wit mlten-salt-eat-stragetecnlgy prvies te capability t stre te suns energyas eat, rater tan as electricity. Electricity can tenbe generate eiter at a cnstant rate (basela) r asrequire t meet peak eman. Cst-effective strage f tesuns energy as eat means tat CST can reliably prvieelectricity uring cluy peris an at nigt. overseas,Cncentrating Slar Termal electricity generatin alreayperates at utility scale, prviing efficient energy stragean 24-ur electricity supply.

In Australia, a wie gegrapical istributin f generatinassets uner te Plan allws lwer-cst win pwer t beintegrate wit CST.

In rare extene peris f lw sun an win acrssAustralia, crp waste bimass-firing prvies an aitinalsurce f eat at te CST plant sites, an/r existingyr is use. histrical system perfrmance an weaterfrecasts are use as tls t manage te system uringsuc peris.

Lastly, slar PV is likely t reac gri parity between2015-2020, an an allwance is mae fr small scale slar

PV an slar t water t prvie 10% f energy by 2020.

A life-cycle emissins analysis f tis system emnstratestat win an CST ave rapi energy pay-back peris,an vastly superir emissins prfiles cmpare witalternative tecnlgies suc as carbn capture an strage(CCS). Mrever, unlike tecnlgies suc as enancegetermal an CCS, all te tecnlgies relie upn in tePlan are cmmercially available tay.

2.1 oee e ZCa2020S Ee P SppSse

Part 2 presents a bra verview f te esign f teZCA2020 Statinary Energy Plan (te Plan). It begins wit aescriptin f Australias current statinary energy sectr,ten utlines wat Australias energy eman will lklike in 2020 uner te Plans implementatin f efficiencyupgraes an fuel-switcing. Strategies fr flatteningeman peaks are iscusse, an, finally, te cmmerciallyavailable renewable tecnlgies tat will meet tis emanare intruce.

Te re

Zero Carbon Australia - 2020 Stationary Energy Report v1

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