Yves BellégoFrance Telecom/Orange

Examples of potential future Examples of potential future services/applicationsservices/applications

ITU-R SG8 Seminar

• From subscribers to services

• Mobile video

• Evolution of capabilities and of usage

• How to structure these services

•The most important service

• Evolutions of the needs

Contents

From subscribers to services

18,51%

15,52%

12,11%

8,00%

5,25%

3,50%2,37%

1,53%0,98%0,61%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Source : IDATE, US Bureau of Census

While in 1993 less than 1 % of the world’s population had a mobile, more than 1 inhabitant out of 5 on the planet is equipped in 2003

Evolution of the average penetration rate worldwide

Until recently attention was focussed on number of subscribers

From subscribers to services

Orange group (1Q 03) 12,30%Orange UK (1Q 03) 15,40%Orange France (1Q 03) 11,00%Vodafone group (June 03) 15,30%Vodafone UK (June 03) 14,60%Vodafone Germany (June 03) 16,90%Vodafone Italy (June 03) 12,50%Verizon Wireless (June /03) 1,70%Vodafone Japan (June 03) 21,80%TIM (1Q 03) 11,30%NTT DoCoMo (March 03) 21,50%KDDI (March 03) 16,90%SK Telecom (March 03) 10,40%KT Freetel (March 03) 8,70%LG Telecom (March 03) 7,30%

Operator% of total revenue from data services

Source : Operators

On the average data services generate less than 10% of mobile operators’ revenues

Their share reaches 12% in Western Europe and is close to 20% in Japan

And voice remains the main source of revenue

From subscribers to services

• M-commerce: moving from the test phase

• Geolocation: good take-off and consolidation

• The automobile telematics market has a good potential

Services in the maturation phase

Mobile video

• Advanced handsets push for mobile video services on:– GPRS

– 3G

• Access is:• in streaming mode (real-time)• or downloading mode (playback)

– but also• Through a memory card• Transferred from other devices

(through memory card, USB, bluetooth,…)

Mobile video

• Videophony is a key 3G application

• Sending video clips on GPRS is becoming easier as new compression algorithms appear

• Competition is becoming stiffer as Internet and media players are attracted to the mobile

Mobile video

• Mobile is becoming a new access mode to audiovisual contents

• Positioning of Real Networks (Mobile Media Guide) and of Microsoft (Media2go)

• Major content distributors encode their content in 3GPP / MPEG4 format

• Stimulating initiatives• The mobile as a dedicated

medium: World Smallest Film Festival with 2mn average film duration

• The mobile as a TV receiver,• New compression techniques

Mobile operators see these services as a mean for

increasing data revenues and building brand differentiation

Evolution of capabilities and usage

Source UMTS Forum

What the technology will support

Evolution of capabilities and usage

To be matched with …

Evolution of capabilities and usage

The services that will be used

Video presenting 3G services as perceived by the users

Approach regarding potential new services

• New services/applications/concepts/usage/ enablers are studied by operators, manufacturers, academia, …

• They are often not linked to any specific business model / client segment

• Forecasts or studies are performed for categories of services, not individual services

How to structure these services

• Services grouped in 9 categories, with one specific for machine to machine

• Assumptions on services, penetration within mobile subscriber base and on services usage

• Takes into account the spread of available technology

Category Example of Existing ServicesVoice Telephony (Incoming and Outgoing calls)

Voice Messages (Reading and Recording messages)Video-telephony and video-conferenceCollaborative workSMS & Simple EmailInstant MessagingChat, Forum

Multimedia Messaging

MMS, Photo, Video messages

Internet-style web sites (information, entertainment, games, education)Simple games, lotteries, betsDownloading of geo-localised maps, location-based servicesStreaming and Downloading of Audio / Video clipsGame Downloads, network gamesBrowsing and buying on E-Commerce sites (retail, tourism, …)On-line banking and financeM-PaymentAdvertisingIntranet access, VPNAccess to Corporate Databases

Machine to Machine Machine-to-Machine services

Rich Multimedia information and entertainmentM-Commerce and Finance

Corporate Services

Voice Communication

Multimedia CommunicationSimple Messaging and Community Services

Simple Information and Entertainment

The most important service

Accessibility,

Coverage,

Everywhere,

Anywhere,

Ubiquity,

…

Still remains to be developed and improved

And coverage requirements for voice will become coverage requirements for high bitrate services

GSM coverage today

BrazilGermany

USARussia

Examples of some operators coverage

Extended mobile coverage with 3G

Compared to current 2G coverage,

what will be the coverage of 3G high bit-rate services ?

WRC-07 under Agenda Item 1.4 could allow to find a spectrum solution that would permit the

extension of IMT-2000 coverage at lower cost

IMT-2000 positioning

IMT-2000, a solution to provide:

- Extension of capacity

- Reduction of cost to provide services

- New services

IMT-2000 could provide also:

- Extension of coverage, in particular in

developing countries (WRC-07 AI 1.4)

And its evolutions

The evolutions of IMT-2000 (the future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000) will provide:

- Additional services and service experience

(extended bit-rates)

- Extension of adaptability

(Interworking)

ITU-R WP8F involvement

In preparation of WRC-07 several aspects are studied:

- the mobile market and services expected to be used from around 2010 to 2020, input for the spectrum requirements estimation

- the methodology to estimate spectrum requirements

- the radio aspects of the future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000

- the spectrum requirements estimated using the methodology developed, the forecast for the market and services and the radio aspects envisaged

- the spectrum requirements and possible candidate frequency bands to address these requirements (…)

ITU-R WP8F involvement

ITU-R WP8F in its 13 meeting in Berlin (16-23 June 2004) finalised:

‘Questionnaire on the Services and Market for the future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000’

The aim of this survey is to obtain comments/inputs from interested parties on a variety of issues relating to services and markets to be provided by and/or envisaged for the future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond IMT-2000

and ‘Circular letter’

which introduces this survey and provides schedule and contacts

Administrations, Sector Members and ITU-R Associates participating in the work of Study Group 8 are encouraged to submit contributions in answer to this questionnaire

December 2004 is the deadline for the initial responses

Yves Bellégoyves.bellego@orangefrance.com

Thank you

ITU-R SG8 SeminarWP8F