_yrc_no_nuoc_ngoai_va_anh_huong_toi_tang_truong_kinh_te_viet_nam_7689.pdf

ti tham d cuc thi Sinh vin nghin cu khoa hc nm 2010

N nc ngoi v nh hng ti tng trng kinh t Vit Nam

http://svnckh.com.vn 1

MC LC

DANH MC T VIT TT ..................................................................................................... 3

DANH MC BNG BIU ........................................................................................................ 4

LI M U ............................................................................................................................. 5

CHUNG I: TNG QUAN TI LIU V N NC NGOI V MI QUAN H GIA

N NC NGOI V TNG TRNG KINH T ............................................................... 7

1.1 L thuyt chung v n nc ngoi: .............................................................................. 7

1.1.1 Khi nim n nc ngoi v ti c cu n nc ngoi ........................................ 7

1.1.1.1 Khi nim v n chnh ph, n nc ngoi v n quc gia .......................... 7

1.1.1.2 Ti c cu n nc ngoi: ............................................................................. 9

1.1.2 Phn loi n nc ngoi ..................................................................................... 11

1.1.2.1 C cu dng vn vo ................................................................................... 11

1.1.2.2 Phn loi n nc ngoi .............................................................................. 13

1.1.3 Cc ch tiu nh gi n nc ngoi ................................................................... 15

1.1.3.1 Cc ch tiu nh gi mc n nc ngoi .............................................. 15

1.1.3.2 Cc ch tiu nh gi c cu n nc ngoi ................................................ 18

1.1.4 Cc nhn t nh hng n n vay, chi ph s dng n ..................................... 18

1.2 Tng quan tnh hnh nghin cu v mi quan h gia n nc ngoi v tng trng

kinh t ................................................................................................................................... 21

CHNG II: THC TRNG VN N NOC NGOI V PHN TCH MI QUAN

H NH LNG GIA N NC NGOI V TNG TRNG KINH T CA VIT

NAM ......................................................................................................................................... 30

2.1 Thc trng tnh hnh vay n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam trong giai on 1986-2009: 30

2.1.1 Quy m: .............................................................................................................. 30

2.1.2 C cu: ................................................................................................................ 33

2.1.3 Cc ch s nh gi kh nng tr n ca Vit Nam ............................................ 41

2.1.4 Nhng nguy c lm gia tng n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam ............................... 44

2.1.4.1 Nguy c vay thm hng nm do mt cn i trong tit kim - u t v thm

ht ngn sch ................................................................................................................ 44


2.1.4.2 Nguy c mt kh nng thanh ton li vay t nhng nhn t tc ng n chi

ph s dng n vay ca Vit Nam ................................................................................ 46

2.1.5 Hiu qu s dng n vay: ................................................................................... 47

2.1.6 C ch qun l n vay: ....................................................................................... 49

2.2 Kim nh thc nghim mi quan h nh lng gia n nc ngoi v tng trng

kinh t ca Vit Nam ............................................................................................................ 52

2.2.1 Phng php lun p dng kho st mi quan h gia n nc ngoi v tng

trng kinh t ca Vit Nam............................................................................................. 52

2.2.2 M t s liu ....................................................................................................... 56

2.2.3 Kt qu thc nghim ........................................................................................... 58

2.2.3.1 Kim nh tnh dng ca bin: (Unit root test) ........................................... 58

2.2.3.2 Kim nh ng lin kt (Cointergration Test) ........................................... 58

2.2.3.3 Kt qu Kim nh quan h nhn qu Granger Causality ........................... 60

CHNG III: KT LUN RT RA V MT S KIN NGH CHNH SCH VAY N

NC NGOI ......................................................................................................................... 62

KT LUN ............................................................................................................................... 65

PH LC 1: K HIU CC BIN S .................................................................................. 66

PH LC 2: BNG S LIU U T, VN TCH LU, TNG SN PHM QUC

DN .......................................................................................................................................... 67

PH LC 3: BNG S LIU HI QUY M HNH ............................................................. 68

PH LC 4: KT QU HI QUY V KIM NH M HNH BNG PHN MM

STATA ...................................................................................................................................... 69

TI LIU THAM KHO ........................................................................................................ 77


DANH MC T VIT TT

ADB Asian Development Bank Ngn hng pht trin chu

CIA Central Intelligence Agency Cc tnh bo Trung ng Hoa K

CP C phiu

CPI Consumer Price Index Ch s gi tiu dng

EDT Tng n

EIU B phn phn tch thng tin kinh t thuc tp ch The Economist

FDI Foreign Direct Investment u t trc tip nc ngoi

GDP Gross Domestic Product Tng sn phm quc ni

GNI Gross National Income Tng thu nhp quc dn

HIPC Highly Indebted Poor Country Cc nc ngho c dung lng n

ln

IMF International Monetary Fund T chc tin t th gii

INT Tng li phi tr hng nm

NGO Non-governmental organization T chc phi chnh ph

NSNN Ngn sch nh nc

ODA Official Development Assistance Vn h tr pht trin chnh thc

OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development T

chc hp tc v pht trin kinh t

OLS Ordinary Least Square Phng php bnh phng nh nht

RES Tng d tr ngoi hi

TDS Tng n phi tr hng nm

TP Tri phiu

VND ng Vit Nam

WB World Bank Ngn hng th gii

XGS Kim ngch thu xut khu


DANH MC BNG BIU

Hnh 1: C cu dng vn vo........................................................................................ 12

Hnh 2: ng cong Laffer v n .................................................................................. 23

Hnh 3: Mi lin h threshold effect gia n v tng trng ..................................... 24

Biu 1: Tng n, n phi tr, GDP, tng trng ....................................................... 31

Biu 2: Total debt, debt service and total export ...................................................... 32

Biu 3: C cu d n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam phn theo nhm ngi i vay ...... 34

Biu 4: C cu d n nc ngoi ca chnh ph v c chnh ph bo lnh phn

theo loi iu kin tn dng tnh n 30/6/2009 ............................................................. 34

Biu 5: Cam kt k kt gii ngn vn ODA ....................................................... 35

Biu 6: 10 nh ti tr hng u cho VN 1990 2005............................................... 36

Biu 7: Vn vay nc ngoi ca cc a phng (n v : %) ................................. 38

Biu 8: D n nc ngoi ca chnh ph phn theo ch n v theo loi tin .......... 40

Biu 9: T l n vay ngn hn v di hn ca Vit Nam ......................................... 41

Bng 1: Tiu ch nh gi mc n nc ngoi ......................................................... 15

Bng 2: Thang im xp hng tn nhim ....................................................................... 21

Bng 3: Mt s nghin cu gn y v mi quan h gia n nc ngoi v tng trng

kinh t ............................................................................................................................. 27

Bng 4:Mt s ch tiu nh gi kh nng tr n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam ................ 41

Bng 5: D bo mt s ch tiu n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam ca IMF v WB ........... 43

Bng 6: D bo mt s ch tiu n nuc ngoi ca Vit Nam ca EIU ........................ 43

Bng 7: T l tit kim u t so vi GDP ................................................................. 45

Bng 8: Kt qu kim nh tnh dng ca bin (Unit Root Test) .................................. 58

Bng 9: Kt qu kim nh hng ng lin kt .............................................................. 59

Bng 10: Johansen normalization restriction imposed .................................................. 59

Bng 11: Kt qu kim nh Granger da trn VECM .................................................. 61


LI M U

1. Tnh cp thit ca ti

L mt quc gia ang pht trin, ngun vn t nc ngoi ni chung v n nc

ngoi ni ring ng vai tr l mt bin s kinh t rt quan trng i vi Vit Nam.

Nhng nm gn y, c nhiu quan ngi v t l n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam v

c bit l nhng tc ng ca nhn t ny n tng trng v pht trin ca quc gia.

Trn thc t, vic nm r s tc ng ny trong thc trng c th ca nn kinh t l ht

sc cn thit hoch nh nhng chnh sch qun l hot ng vay n nc ngoi

mt cch c hiu qu nht. Thy c tm quan trng ca vn ny, tc gi quyt

nh chn ti N nc ngoi v nh hng ti tng trng kinh t ca Vit

Nam.

2. i tng nghin cu v mc tiu nghin cu

i tng nghin cu ca ti l nh gi thc trng vay n nc ngoi v tm

hiu mi quan h gia n nc ngoi v tng trng kinh t Vit Nam

Mc tiu nghin cu ca ti l thng qua tm hiu mi quan h tc ng gia

hai bin s kinh t ny s rt ra mt s nhn xt v xut cc chnh sch lin quan

n vn vay n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam.

3. Phm vi nghin cu

ti nghin cu tp trung vo thc trng vay n nc ngoi v phn tch nh

lng mi quan h gia vay n nc ngoi vi tng trng kinh t ti Vit Nam t

nm 1986, khi nn kinh t bt u m ca cho n ht nm 2009.

4. Phng php nghin cu

hon thnh ti, tc gi s dng cc phng php: thu thp thng tin, tng

hp v phn tch s liu t Internet, cc bi bo, cc bi nghin cu. ng thi s dng


phng php kinh t lng tm ra mi quan h nh lng gia n nc ngoi v

tng trng kinh t Vit Nam trong giai on chuyn i.

Ngoi cc mc m u, kt lun, danh mc t vit tt, danh mc th v bng

biu, ti liu tham kho v ph lc, ti gm c ba phn chnh:

Chng 1: Tng quan ti liu v n nc ngoi v mi quan h gia n

nc ngoi v tng trng kinh t

Chng 2: Thc trng vn n nc ngoi v phn tch nh lng mi

quan h gia n nc ngoi v tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam

Chng 3: Kt lun rt ra v mt s kin ngh chnh sch vay n nc

ngoi


CHUNG I: TNG QUAN TI LIU V N NC NGOI V MI

QUAN H GIA N NC NGOI V TNG TRNG KINH T

1.1 L thuyt chung v n nc ngoi:

1.1.1 Khi nim n nc ngoi v ti c cu n nc ngoi

1.1.1.1 Khi nim v n chnh ph, n nc ngoi v n quc gia

Thut ng n chnh ph c s dng kh ph bin trong cc thng k ti chnh

quc gia v thng k ca cc t chc ti chnh quc t nh Qu tin t Quc t hoc

Ngn hng Th gii. Theo thng l quc t, trong cc thng k ca cc t chc ti

chnh quc t, n chnh ph l tng cc khon vay n trong v ngoi nc ca Chnh

ph. Theo cch hiu ny, n chnh ph l s d v ngha v tr n gc v tr n li ti

mt thi im i vi cc khon vay trong nc v vay nc ngoi ca Chnh ph.

N chnh ph bao gm tng n trong v ngoi nc ca chnh ph, tng cc

khon vay n ca khu vc t c bo lnh ca Chnh ph (ch yu l n nc ngoi) v

cc khon n ca cc t chc thuc khu vc cng.

N chnh ph bao gm n ca chnh quyn trung ng v chnh quyn a

phng. Ni cch khc, n chnh ph ch lin quan n hot ng vay n ca cc c

quan chnh ph thuc i tng s dng ngun vn ngn sch nh nc v c php

vay n theo quy nh ca php lut. Theo thng l quc t, n ca Ngn hng Trung

ng khng c xp vo n ca Chnh ph m c tng hp vo n ca khu vc

cng. Tuy nhin, i vi Vit Nam, do Ngn hng nh nc l mt c quan ca Chnh

ph nn cc khon vay n ca Ngn hng nh nc Vit Nam c tng hp vo tng

n ca Chnh ph.

nc ta, thc hin chc nng qun l v m nn kinh t, Chnh ph phi gn

mt phn trch nhim ca mnh i vi mt s khon n ca cc ch th kinh t khc,


chng hn ca cc t chc cng, nh Qu H tr pht trin doanh nghip nh nc v

n ca khu vc t c bo lnh ca Chnh ph.

N nc ngoi ca quc gia l s d ca mi ngha v n hin hnh (khng bao

gm ngha v n d phng) v tr gc v li ti mt thi im ca cc khon vay nc

ngoi ca quc gia. N nc ngoi cn c th nh ngha l khon vay ca quc gia i

vi nhng ch n c tr ngoi phm vi quc gia (bao gm c nhng khon n trong

nc do ngi khng c tr ti quc gia nm gi).

Theo T in thut ng v ngn hng v ti chnh ca Nh xut bn Peter

Collin, ti bn nm 1997, th n nc ngoi l khon vay n ca mt quc gia t mt

quc gia khc, ni cch khc, ch n thng tr nc ngoi v con n thng tr

trong nc. Nh vy, n nc ngoi bao gm c cc khon n trn th trng n ni

a nhng ch n l nhng ngi khng c tr ni a.

V c cu, n nc ngoi bao gm n nc ngoi ca khu vc cng v n nc

ngoi ca khu vc t. N nc ngoi ca khu vc cng bao gm: n nc ngoi ca

Chnh ph, n nc ngoi ca chnh quyn cp tnh, thnh ph trc thuc Trung ng

(nu c), n nc ngoi ca cc doanh nghip nh nc, cc t chc ti chnh, tn dng

nh nc v cc t chc kinh t nh nc trc tip vay nc ngoi v n nc ngoi

ca khu vc t nhn c bo lnh ca Chnh ph. N nc ngoi ca khu vc t nhn:

l n nc ngoi ca cc doanh nghip, t chc kinh t thuc khu vc t nhn (khng

bao gm n ca cc c nhn).

i vi khon n m Chnh ph, cc t chc trong nc vay Chnh ph, vay cc

t chc v c nhn nc ngoi c th c xc nh kh chnh xc. i vi khon n

ca cc ch n khng c tr ni a th rt kh tng hp y v chnh xc. Bi v

cc khon n ny c th c thc hin bng ng ni t hoc ngoi t ngay trn th

trng ni a, tiu thc xc nh l khon n nc ngoi da trn c s ch n

l ngi c tr nc ngoi. V d: i vi Vit Nam, Chnh ph hoc cc doanh


nghip pht hnh cng c n bng ni t hoc ngoi t trn th trng Vit Nam, theo

thng l quc t, tng gi tr ca cc cng c n m nhng ngi khng c tr Vit

Nam mua s c tnh vo tng n nc ngoi ca quc gia. Vn ny thng c

bit n di mt tn gi khc l u t gin tip ca nc ngoi qua con ng ph

bin nht l th trng chng khon. Cc nh u t nc ngoi mua tri phiu trn th

trng chng khon Vit Nam th c tng hp vo khon n nc ngoi ca Vit

Nam.

N quc gia l s d ca mi ngha v v tr n gc v tr n li ti mt thi

im v cc khon vay nc ngoi ca Vit Nam. N quc gia bao gm n nc ngoi

ca khu vc cng v n nc ngoi ca khu vc t nhn.

Trong , n nc ngoi ca khu vc cng bao gm n nc ngoi ca Chnh

ph (N nc ngoi ca Chnh ph l s d mi ngha v v tr n gc v tr n li ti

mt thi im v cc khon vay nc ngoi ca Chnh ph.), n nc ngoi ca chnh

quyn cp tnh, thnh ph (nu c) v n nc ngoi ca cc t chc kinh t nh nc

(T chc kinh t nh nc gm: Doanh nghip nh nc v t chc ti chnh - tn dng

nh nc). N nc ngoi ca khu vc t nhn l n nc ngoi ca cc doanh nghip,

t chc kinh t thuc khu vc t nhn (khng bao gm n ca c nhn - nu c).

1.1.1.2 Ti c cu n nc ngoi:

Ti c cu n hay ti t chc n c nhiu dng: Thay i k hn n l hon tr n

cho ti mt thi im thun tin trong tng lai, Xa n l bt k vic ct gim no v

gi tr ca khon n theo hp ng. iu ny c th thc hin c bng nhiu cch

khc nhau, r rng nht l xa ton b n [Corden trch trong 21, tr. 280]. Gim gi tr

hin ti ca khon n l bt k bin php no lm gim gi tr hin ti ca cc khon

thanh ton ti hn, v d ko di thi gian n hn.

Gim n l bt k bin php no c th gim gi tr khon n ca mt quc gia v

d n c th chuyn thnh vn s hu, mua li n, hoc chuyn thnh tri phiu di


hn vi mt sut chit khu. Gim n c th lm gim gi tr khon n nhng khng

chc s lm gim cc khon thanh ton trong tng lai. V d, chuyn n thnh vn s

hu n s gim nhng cc khon thanh ton trong tng lai. V d, chuyn n thnh

vn s hu n s gim nhng cc khon thanh ton khng gim m ch thay th khon

thanh ton li sut trc y bng thanh ton c tc. Trong di hn cc khon thanh

ton s tht s gia tng.

Ti c cu n thng c thc hin thng qua hnh thc chuyn n thnh vn,

nhng v sau cng c nhiu nghip v khc c p dng hn, c 5 dng nghip v

thng gp trn th trng th cp:

- Th nht, chuyn n thnh vn l nghip v lin quan n vic mua n trn

trng th cp, ri chuyn thnh vn u t vo nc i vay. Vic mua n thng p

dng vi mt mc chit khu. ng ngoi t ca khon n v vy c th chuyn sang

tri phiu hoc c phiu bng ng tin ca nc i vay. N chuyn thnh u t vo

cc d n bo v mi trng, phc li x hi cng thuc dng ny. Nghip v ny

thng c s dng nht.

- Th hai, chuyn i n: cc khon n ngn hng c chuyn thnh cc dng

tri quyn khc, thng thng l tri phiu nh tri phiu chit khu, tri phiu ngang

gi; cc tri phiu ny c th c m bo bng k qu cho phn gc hoc li, gi tr

tri phiu c th bng hoc thp hn gi tr khon n v li sut c th c nh hoc th

ni. Mua n tr bng hng ha xut khNu hoc bng vin tr cng thuc dng ny.

- Th ba, chuyn i n thnh n: cc ngn hng s mua bn cc khon n ca

khch hng trn th trng n th cp theo mc chit khu c nh bi th trng

ny. Ti ti tr hay cn gi l khon vay Bc cu - khon vay mi c s dng

trang tri n c cng thuc nhm ny. Tuy nhin, hnh thc ti ti tr khng ph bin

cc nc ang pht trin v th trng ti chnh cc nc ny km pht trin v kh

nng tip cn th trng vn quc t cn hn ch .


- Th t, mua li n: nc i vay c php mua li n bng cch tr tin mt

cho nc cho vay. Thng thng cc nc i vay s tr n gc vi mt mc chit

khu. y l mt dng ca tr n trc hn nhng c th c nhng min gim.

- Th nm, bn n bng tin mt: mt ngn hng hay mt nh u t mua li mt

khon n. y l cch quen thuc m ngi cho vay hay lm khi mun rt khi mt

quc gia i vay no . Tuy nhin, ngi cho vay u tin phi chu mt khon l ng

k.

Cc nghip v x l n nay thng lin quan n cc ch n l cc ngn hng,

nh u t, cng ty cung ng hoc Chnh ph v nh trung gian mi gii. Nghip v

x l n do cc nh chuyn mn cc ngn hng thng mi, cng ty u t v cc t

chc chuyn doanh thc hin. Nghip v ny c th tin hnh bng nhiu hnh thc, k

thut rt phc tp, c bit l vic thit lp cc chng t giao dch. N ghin cu s

khng i su phn tch kha cnh k thut ca cc nghip v ny.

1.1.2 Phn loi n nc ngoi

Phn loi n nc ngoi trc ht phi da trn lung vn vo nm c tnh

cht, c cu ca tng loi vn, t la chn c cu ph hp p ng nhu cu tng

trng n nh, gip qun l n nc ngoi hiu qu hn.

1.1.2.1 C cu dng vn vo

Dng vn vo mt quc gia c cu trc nh trong hnh 1.

Trong , ti tr pht trin chnh thc (ODA) thng l lung vn u i (li sut

thp, thi hn vay di, thi gian n hn di) u t vo c s h tng sn xut v x hi

nhm to iu kin thun li cho pht trin kinh t v thu ht u t nc tip nhn.

Trong lung ti tr pht trin chnh thc, vin tr pht trin chnh thc (ODA) chim

t trng cao.


Hnh 1: C cu dng vn vo

Lung vn t nhn vo cc nc ang pht trin thng di dng: (i) u t

trc tip, (ii) u t chng khon, (iii) khon cho vay t nhn khc nh cho vay thng

mi, tn dng thng mi v (iv) cc khon chuyn vn ca cc t chc phi chnh ph.

u t trc tip (FDI) l u t nm gi quyn qun l lu di (thng thng

10% c phiu c quyn b phiu) ti mt cng ty mt quc gia khc vi quc gia ca

nh u t. u t trc tip gm ba phn: vn ch s hu, ti u t t li nhun li

v cc khon vay ngn hn v di hn. Nh vy, vn u t trc tip dng vn ch s

hu v ti u t t li nhun lm tng ti sn ca ngi nc ngoi ti nc nhn

vn nhng vn u t trc tip nc ngoi dng vn vay l khon n ca php nhn

nc nhn u t i vi c nhn hoc t chc nc ngoi.

Ti tr pht trin chnh thc Vn t nhn

Vay thng mi

Dng vn vo

Tn dng thng mi

Vin tr pht

trin chnh thc

Ti tr pht trin

chnh thc khc

u t

trc tip

nc

ngoi

u t ti

chnh (TP,

CP &

P.Sinh)

Vay t

nhn

Vin tr

khng

hon li

Vin tr

c hon

li


u t ti chnh hay cn gi l danh mc u t l dng mua chng khan n,

chng khon c phn hoc cc cng c pht sinh. Danh mc u t l tng cc ngun

qu ti tr quc gia, bin nhn tin gi v trc tip mua cc c phn bi nh u t

nc ngoi. Nu vic mua c phiu c thc hin theo cc u c vn ngn hn c

th thc y th trng ti chnh vn hnh v cng c th to nn nhng c sc kinh t.

Khon cho vay t nhn gm (i) khon vay thng mi: vay theo iu kin ca th

trng tin t quc t (khng c u i), (ii) khon tn dng thng mi: khon vay

gia cc doanh nghip vi nhau thng lin quan n mua bn hng ha tr chm, (iii)

khon chuyn vn ca cc t chc phi chnh ph nc ngoi di dng vin tr ti

chnh hoc hin vt thng qua vic cung cp cc hng ha v dch v. Nhng khon

ny thng rt kh c s liu thng k chnh thc v vi li sut thng mi ca cc

khon vay, nu khng s dng hp l rt d tr thnh gnh nng v n nc ngoi ca

quc gia trong tng lai.

1.1.2.2 Phn loi n nc ngoi

Phn loi cc khon n vay nc ngoi ch yu cn c vo cc tiu ch khc nhau

gip cho cng tc theo di, nh gi v qun l n c hiu qu. Cch phn loi ch yu

i vi n nc ngoi ca mt quc gia l phn loi theo phm vi pht hnh.

- Phn loi theo iu kin vay: u i v khng u i. Theo nh ngha ca y

Ban H tr pht trin, khon vay u i l khon vay trong yu t vin tr t 25%

tr ln; yu t vin tr ca mt khon vay l gi tr cam kt ca n tr i gi tr dch v

n phi thanh ton theo hp ng (tnh bng gi tr hin ti vi sut chit khu theo

thng l l 10%) v ngc li l khon vay khng u i.

- Phn loi theo thi hn vay: ngn hn v di hn. N ngn hn t 1 nm tr

xung v n di hn trn 1 nm. N ngn hn l nhng khon n c nh hng trc

tip n tnh hnh thanh khon ca quc gia v c kh nng gy ra khng hong kinh t

nh kinh nghim ca cuc khng hong Chu nm 1997 va qua. Do vy, cn phi


iu chnh n mc thp nht nhng khon n ngn hn gim bt p lc thanh ton

v nhng tc ng tiu cc ln nn kinh t khi c s rt lui t ngt cc lung vn

ngn hn.

- Phn loi theo ch th i vay: n chnh thc (khu vc cng) v n t nhn (khu

vc t). N chnh thc hay n Chnh ph bao gm n ca cc t chc Nh nc (i

vi mt lin bang th gm c n ca cc bang trong lin bang) v n ca c quan hnh

chnh, tnh, thnh ph. Ngoi ra, cc khon n ca khu vc t nhn do Nh nc hoc

t chc chnh thc bo lnh cng c coi l n chnh thc v chnh ph ca nc i

vay s chu trch nhim tr vn v li cho nc cho vay trong trng hp t chc i

vay khng thc hin ngha v tr n theo cam kt trong hp ng. Tuy nhin, trong

trng hp chnh quyn a phng hoc doanh nghip v n th ngha v n bt

thng c th ln vai chnh ph trung ng, ty thuc vo iu khon c quy

nh trong lut l v vay mn hoc trong bi cnh khng hong. Trong khi cc

khon n do doanh nghip trc tip vay mn hoc do chnh quyn a phng mn

khng c bo lnh ca Chnh ph trung ng l n t nhn. N t nhn thng l n

trn th trng tri phiu, n ngn hng thng mi v cc t nhn khc. Chnh v vy,

n chnh thc v n t nhn phi c phn tch ring v c nhng yu t nh hng

khc nhau v Chnh ph cng phi tnh n cc khon n d phng cho cc ngha v

n bt thng.

- Phn loi theo ch th cho vay: n a phng v n song phng. N a

phng n ch yu t cc c quan ca Lin hp quc, Ngn hng Th gii, Qu Tin

t Quc t, cc ngn hng pht trin khu vc, cc c quan a phng nh OPEC v

lin Chnh ph. Trong khi , n song phng n t Chnh ph mt nc nh cc

nc thuc OECD v cc nc khc hoc n t mt t chc quc t nhn danh mt

Chnh ph duy nht di cc dng h tr ti chnh, vin tr nhn o bng hin vt.


1.1.3 Cc ch tiu nh gi n nc ngoi

Khc vi n trong nc, n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph ni ring, n quc gia ni

chung rt c cc nh qun l quan tm v n nc ngoi khng ch lin quan n

thc trng nn kinh t, kh nng tr n m cn lin quan n kh nng thu ht cc

ngun lc ti chnh t bn ngoi phc v cho cc mc tiu v m ca nh nc. Cc

ch s nh gi n nc ngoi c xy dng thnh h thng nhm xc nh mc

nghim trng ca n nc ngoi i vi an ninh ti chnh quc gia. Cng cn phi xc

nh li l cc ch tiu nh gi chung v n nc ngoi, trong n nc ngoi ca

Chnh ph l ch yu, cn n ca khu vc t nhn hu nh khng ng k.

1.1.3.1 Cc ch tiu nh gi mc n nc ngoi

xp loi cc con n theo mc n, Ngn hng th gii s dng cc ch s

nh gi mc n nn ca cc quc gia vay n nh bng 1.1:

Bng 1: Tiu ch nh gi mc n nc ngoi

Ch s Mc trm

trng

Mc kh

khn

Mc bnh

thng

1. T l % tng n nc ngoi so vi GDP 50% 30 50% 30%

2. T l % tng n nc ngoi so vi kim ngch

xut khu hng ha v dch v 200% 165 200% 165%

3. T l % ngha v tr n so vi kim ngch xut

khu hng ha v dch v 30% 18 30% 18%

4. T l % ngha v tr n so vi kim ngch xut

khu hng ha v dch v so vi GDP 4% 2 4% 2%

5. T l % ngha v tr li so vi kim ngch xut

khu hng ha v dch v 20% 12 20% 12%

Da vo cc ch s trn, cc t chc ti chnh quc t c th nh gi mc n

nn v kh nng ti tr cho cc nc thnh vin. Cc ch s ny cng l cn c cc


quc gia vay n tham kho, xc nh tnh trng n hoch nh chin lc vay n

cho quc gia.

Quy m n v tr n, tr li so vi ngun thu trc tip v gin tip tr n

thng c dng nh gi mc n. Mc n cng ngm cho bit kh nng tr

n ca cc quc gia trong trung v di hn. Cc ch tiu thng dng:

* Kh nng han tr n vay nc ngoi (EDT/XGS)

- Tng n / Tng kim ngch xut khu hng ha dch v: Ch tiu ny biu din

t l n nc ngoi bao gm n t nhn, n c chnh ph bo lnh trn thu nhp

xut khu hng ha v dch v. tng s dng ch tiu ny l nhm phn nh ngun

thu xut khu hng ha v dch v l phng tin m mt quc gia c th s dng

tr n nc ngoi. Nhng vn khi s dng ch tiu ny l: Ngun thu xut khu d

bin ng t nm ny sang nm khc, ngoi ra cng c nhng phng n khc nc

con n c th s dng tr n nc ngoi m khng nht thit phi tng xut khu.

V d ct gim nhu cu nhp khu hay gim ngun d tr ngoi hi. Ch tiu ny cc

nc ng Thi Bnh Dng ngy cng gim dn cho thy kh nng tr n bng thu

nhp xut khu ang tr nn kh khn, cn phi c nhng ngun thu khc b p.

* T l n nc ngoi so vi thu nhp quc gia (EDT/GNI )

- N/GNI: y l ch tiu nh gi kh nng tr n thng qua thu nhp quc dn

c to ra. Hay ni cch khc, n phn nh kh nng hp th vn vay nc ngoi.

Thng thng cc nc ang pht trin thng nh gi cao gi tr ng ni t hoc s

dng ch a t gi dn ti lm gim tnh trng trm trng ca n. Do vy, tnh trng

n c th khng c nh gi ng mc.

*T l tr n ( TDS/XGS )


- Tng n phi tr hng nm / Kim ngch thu xut khu: Cn gi l t l dch v

n (n gc v li phi thanh ton so vi gi tr xut khu). y l mt tiu ch quan

trng, phn nh quan h gia ngha v n phi tr so vi nng lc xut khu hng ha

v dch v ca quc gia i vay.

Thng 9 nm 2000, Hip nh c cu li n cho cc quc gia c ng tin khng

kh nng chuyn i lm cho mc n ca cc nc ny gim i ng k do ch

s TDS/XGS ang tng t sau cuc khng khong Chu th gim xung t nm

2000.

*T l tr li (INT / XGS )

- Tng li phi tr hng nm/Kim ngch thu xut khu: Cn gi l t l dch v

li hay t l gia tng li phi tr so vi kim ngch xut khu. Mt quc gia phi thanh

ton li vi mc li sut c quy nh trong cam kt cho vay, thng thng li ny

c trch t thu nhp xut khu. Quc gia mc n trong qu kh th hin ti v tng

lai h s trch thu nhp t xut khu cng nhiu, hn ch khi lng ngoi t dnh cho

nhp khu. y l ch tiu tt nht nh gi n v khng ch cp n gnh nng

n m cn ch ra chi ph vay n, iu ny ngm hiu nh hiu qu s dng vn vay c

cao hn chi ph li vay hay khng.

* Tim nng tr li (INP/GNI )

- Li/GNI: Tng li phi tr so vi GNI, phn nh tim nng tr li ca nc i

vay. cc nc khu vc Chu , trong c Vit Nam, ch s ny rt thp, ch cha

n 1,5%, iu ny cho thy tnh kh quan trong vic tr n ca cc nc ny.

*T l % d tr ngoi hi so vi tng n (RES/EDT )

-Tng d tr ngoi hi / Tng n (%): Ch s ny th hin kh nng ca nc con

n c th dng d tr ngoi hi tr n nc ngoi.


Da vo cc ch s trn, cc t chc ti chnh quc t c th nh gi mc n

nn v kh nng ti tr cho cc nc thnh vin. Cc ch s ny cng l cn c cc

quc gia vay n tham kho, xc nh tnh trng n hoch nh chin lc vay n

cho quc gia.

1.1.3.2 Cc ch tiu nh gi c cu n nc ngoi

C cu n hm cha nhng thng tin quan trng v mc ri ro ca vic vay

n. Thng thng ri ro s cao khi t trng n ngn hn, t l n thng mi v t l

n song phng cao. Cc ch tiu nh gi c cu gm:

- N ngn hn / Tng n: Phn nh t trng cc khon n cn thanh ton trong

thi gian nh hn mt nm trong tng n. T l ny cng cao, p lc tr n cng ln.

- N u i / Tng n: T l ny cng cao, gnh nng n nc ngoi cng nh.

- N a phng / Tng n: Cc khon n a phng thng nhm mc ch h

tr, t mu cu v li nhun, do vic tng t trng n a phng trong tng n phn

nh tnh hnh n nc ngoi ca mt nc thay i theo chiu hng tt.

1.1.4 Cc nhn t nh hng n n vay, chi ph s dng n

R rng vic vay n nc ngoi c tm quan trng nht nh n s pht trin

ca cc quc gia ang pht trin. Tuy nhin mt yu t c tnh quyt nh n vic s

dng n c hiu qu hay khng chnh l chi ph s dng n.

Chi ph s dng l ci gi m mt quc gia phi tr cho vic s dng vn vay

Ci gi phi tr ny ngoi tin li phi tr nh k, quc gia cn phi tr chi ph mi

gii, chi ph pht hnh n (nu l pht hnh tri phiu), hoc nhng chi ph v hnh l

nhng rng buc ca quc gia cho vay (nu l n vay u i), thm vo l nhng

khon c th mt i do nhng quan chc Nh nc c tt tham .


Chi ph s dng n c th gia tng do nhng bin ng ca kinh t th gii cng

nh s thiu linh hot ca c quan iu hnh v m trong cc chnh sch ti chnh tin

t; bi v xt v vay n, thi gian l yu t quan trng dn n gia tng ri ro ca

khon vay , trong sut khong thi gian i vay c th xy ra nhng bin c c li

hoc bt li n cc khon vay, nht l n vay nc ngoi. Nhng yu t l ri ro

v t gi hi oi, li sut th trng, lm pht v nhng ri ro quc gia khc.

T gi hi oi

Trong m hnh u t tit kim, t gi hi oi gi vai tr quan trng trong vic

gii thch cc bin ng trong ti khon vng lai. Nu ngi ta d on c rng c

s st gi thc s ca ng ni t th cc h gia nh c th r nhau i mua hng nhp

khu c th d tr c lu, iu ny lm cho mc tit kim c th gim i. Cn nu

ng ni t tng gi tm thi c th lm nh gi sai lch v t sut sinh li thc ca

nh u t.

T gi hi oi thc t cn quyt nh c mc d tr vn mong mun bng cch

tc ng vo chi ph iu chnh, vic nh gi t gi qu cao khng ph hp vi t l

li sut, s c ngha nh mt tr cp u t. Do , nu c s gim gi thc t so vi

d tnh c th lm mc u t tng ln v ngc li.

i vi n vay nc ngoi, cc khon i vay thng c tnh bng ngoi t.

i vi cc quc gia vay n, thng cc nc chm pht trin, c ng tin yu, v th

ti thi im i vay, mc gi ca ng ni t thng cao hn ti thi im tr n. iu

ny gy nn mt li sut thc cao hn nhiu so vi li sut danh ngha. Vic u t

trong nc bng ni t sau khi chuyn sang ngoi t c th lm cho t sut sinh li

gim i rt nhiu. V th cc quc gia cn phi c mt chnh sch qun l t gi rt linh

hot v cn nhc k lng khi vay n di hn vi li sut cao. Thc hin mua bn

quyn chn bo him t gi cng l mt gii php tuy nhin nghip v ny ch thc


hin c trong ngn hn, do ch ph hp vi nhng khon vay thng mi cho

xut nhp khu.

Li sut th trng th gii

Li ca cc khon vay c xc nh da trn li sut ca th trng th gii

nh LIBOR, SIBOR i vi cc khon vay c li sut c nh, s thay i ca li

sut th trng s lm thay i li sut thc ca khon i vay, do ngi i vay s

gp lng tng trong phng n tr n ca mnh. Thng thng n vay quc t l nhng

hp ng vay vi li sut th ni, li sut vay bng la ca cc nc ang pht trin

gn cht vi li sut cho vay gia cc ngn hng London (LIBOR).

Lm pht

Lm pht l vn kh khn lun gp phi ti cc quc gia ang pht trin.

Mc lm pht ny thng cao hn lm pht ca cc nc ch n l cc quc gia

pht trin. Theo thuyt ngang gi li sut, lm pht trong nc cao hn so vi lm pht

nc ngoi th t gi hi oi s tng ln b li khon chnh lch , v nh phn

tch phn t gi hi oi, iu ny c th lm gia tng mc n vay thc t.

Ri ro quc gia

Ri ro quc gia l nhng bin c c th xy ra i vi quc gia nh chnh tr,

chin tranh, tnh hnh an ninh x hi iu ny c lng ha thng qua h s tn

nhim ca cc quc gia ny. Hin nay hu ht cc quc gia u thnh lp cho mnh mt

t chc xp hng ri ro doanh nghip v ri ro quc gia. Hai t chc ln nht v c

uy tn nht v vn ny trn th gii l Moodys v Standard & Poors. Thang im

xp hng tn nhim ca h c a ra nh sau:


Bng 2: Thang im xp hng tn nhim

Hng BB hay Ba va mang tnh cht u t va mang tnh cht u c v n

uyt kh nng v n nh B nhng kh nng thanh ton n gc v li thp, th hin tnh

bp bnh v ti chnh ca ch th vay n. Quc gia no c h s tn nhim cng cao

thmc li sut i hi ca ch n i vi quc gia cng thp v ngc li.

Hin nay h s tn nhim ca khu vc Chu vn cn kh thp ch mc trung

bnh tr xung cho thy mc ri ro ca chng ta kh cao.

1.2 Tng quan tnh hnh nghin cu v mi quan h gia n nc

ngoi v tng trng kinh t

Cc l thuyt kinh t cho rng mc vay n hp l cc nc ang pht trin s

kch thch tng trng kinh t. Cc quc gia giai on pht trin u vi dung lng

vn nh hn s c nhng c hi u t vi t sut hon vn cao hn so vi cc nn

kinh t pht trin. Cu hi t ra y l ti sao mc n tch ly cao qu mc hp l

li c th dn ti tng trng kinh t thp hn. S l gii tt nht c th xut pht t l

thuyt debt overhang. Krugman (1988) nh ngha debt overhang l tnh trng

trong s tin d kin chi tr n nc ngoi s gim dn khi dung lng n tng ln.

L thuyt debt overhang cho rng nu nh n trong tng lai vt qu kh nng tr

HNG U T HNG U C

Cht lng

cao Cht lng trung bnh

Cht lng

thp

Cht lng rt

thp

S&P AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC CC C D

Moodys Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa Ca C D


n ca mt nc th cc chi ph d tnh chi tr cho cc khon n s km hm u t

trong nc v u t nc ngoi, t nh hng xu n tng trng. Cc nh u t

tim nng s lo s rng khi quc gia sn xut cng nhiu, h s b cc nc ch

n nh thu nng hn chi tr cho cc khon n nc ngoi, do cc nh u

t s kh c th b cc chi ph u t hin ti thu v sn lng cao hn trong tng

lai. L thuyt debt overhang cn i n mt kt qu rng hn, l mc n nc

ngoi qu cao s lm gim cc u i ca chnh ph cho cc hot ng ci t c cu v

ti kha do vic cng c tinh hnh ti kha quc gia c th lm tng p lc tr n cho

nc ngoi. Nhng bt li ny i vi cng cuc ci t ang l mi quan ngi ln

cc nc c thu nhp thp, ni m vic ci cch c cu l cn thit duy tr tc

tng trng kinh t.

Debt overhang cng ng thi km hm u t v tng trng do gy ra s

khng chc chn v cc quyt nh ca Chnh ph. Khi quy m n cng tng ln, kh

c th chc chc rng chnh ph s vin ti nhng chnh sch g gii quyt cc

khon n phi tr. Trn thc t, ngi ta cho rng rng chnh ph c th dng cc cng

c bp mo u t chi tr cho cc khon n (theo Agenor v Montiel 1996).

Lp lun ny c th c xem xt trong ng cong Laffer v n ( th 1), cho

thy rng tng n cng ln s i km vi kh nng tr n cng gim. Trn phn dc ln

ca ng cong, gi tr hin ti ca n cng tng s i cng vi kh nng tr n cng

tng ln.Trn phn dc xung ca ng cong, gi tr hin ti ca n cng tng li i

km vi kh nng tr n cng gim.


Hnh 2: ng cong Laffer v n

Mc d m hnh debt overhang khng trc tip phn tch nh hng ca n

nc ngoi n tng trng kinh t nhng li gi rng tng n ln s km hm tng

trng do gp phn gim u t. Do vy, mc n hp l, vay n tng ln s c tc

ng tch cc n tng trng. Ngoi ra, tng n tch ly ln s c th cn tr tng

trng. T , c th kt lun rng n v tng trng c mi lin h phi tuyn. Mc d

cc l thuyt debt overhang khng trc tip gii thch nh hng ca n n tng

trng nhng ta c th m rng v p dng ng cong Laffer v n m t ng

cong Laffer v nh hng ca n n tng trng. Do nh ng cong Laffer v n l

im m ti s tng ln trong tng n bt u to ra gnh nng cho u t, ci t

kinh t v cc hot ng khc, im ny c th lin quan n im m ti n bt u

nh hng ngc chiu n tng trng.

Cc nghin cu cng ch ra rng n nc ngoi s tc ng tch cc n tng

trng cho n mt ngng n nht nh, gi l threshold level. Tuy nhin, khi vt

qua ngng ny, n bt y tc ng ngc chiu n tng trng. Theo Cohen

(1993), mi quan h gia gi tr ca n v u t c th c m t tng t vi

ng cong Laffer: khi tng n tng cao hn mc threshold level, cc khon chi tr

Dung lng n

Debt

overhang

Kh nng tr n d kin


thc t cho n nc ngoi s gim nh trnh by trn. iu ny ngm rng s

tng ln trong gi tr ca n s lm cho s tin chi tr cho n tng ln cho n mc

threshold level, tc l pha bn tri ng cong Laffer. Ngc li, gi tr n tng

ln th s tin thc dng cho vic tr n ca quc gia gim i tng i. T ,

ngi ta d on mt ng cong Laffer m t mi quan h gia n nc ngoi v

tng trng kinh t.

Cc nghin cu cng ch ra chnh l mi lin h threshold effect gia

mc n nc ngoi v tng trng kinh t. C th, n nc ngoi c mi lin h hnh

ch U ngc vi tng trng kinh t ( th 2). Khi cc nc bt u vay n, cc

khon n ny c xu hng tc ng tch cc n tng trng (chuyn t mc n 0 n

im A trong th 2). Khi t l n tng ln qu im A, vic vay n gia tng s cn

tr tng trng mc d n ng gp dng trong tng trng. Do , im A c coi

l im biu din mc n ti a ha tng trng. Khi n tin n im B, n bt u

nh hng ngc chiu n tng trng, tnh hnh ca nn kinh t lc ny s ti t hn

trc khi nc vay n.

Hnh 3: Mi lin h threshold effect gia n v tng trng

ng gp ca n vo

tng trng sn lng

bnh qun u ngi

hng nm (%)

Gi tr hin ti ca t l n

trn xut khu (%)

A

B


Mt s nghin cu thc nghim tm ra cc bng chng ng h l thuyt debt

overhang. C khng t cc bi nghin cu s dng cc k thut kinh t lng

nh gi nh hng trc tip ca dung lng n n u t. Trong , dung lng n

c d on s gy ra c nhng nh hng trc tip (qua vic cn tr cc u i

tin hnh ci cch c cu) v gin tip (thng qua nh hng n u t). cc nc

c thu nhp trung bnh, Warner (1992) kt lun rng khng hong n khng nh hng

n u t, trong khi Greene v Vilanueva (1991), Serven v Solimano (1993),

Elbadawi, Ndulu v Ndungu (1997), Deshpande (1997) v Chowdhury (2001) li tm

ra cc bng chng chng ng h cho l thuyt debt overhang. Fosu (1999) trong bi

nghin cu cho 55 nc chu Phi cng chng minh s tn ti ca l thuyt debt

overhang.Tuy nhin, Hansen (2001) trong nghin cu mu gm 54 nc ang pht

trin (trong bao gm 14 nc ngho c dung lng n rt cao HIPC1), i n kt

qu l vic a thm mt s bin vo m hnh nh lm pht, m ca, tnh trng

ngn sch th li loi b tc ng ngc chiu ca n nc ngoi n tng trng kinh

t. Tng t, Savvides (1992) tm ra rng t l n trn GNP khng c nh hng no

c ngha thng k n tng trng. Djikstra v Hermes (2001) tm lc mt s

nghin cu v l thuyt debt overhang v kt lun rng cc bng chng thc nghim

v vn ny l cha nht qun. Hn na, cng c mt s nghin cu tm ra t l n

trn GNP m ti bt u xut hin vn debt overhang.

Mt nghin cu gn y li tm ra cc kt qu cho thy mi quan h phi tuyn

dng ng cong Laffer nh mi lin h threshold level gia dung lng n nc

ngoi v tng trng. S dng b d liu cho 93 nc ang pht trin trong giai on

1969-1998, Pattillo (2002) chng minh rng nh hng ca n nc ngoi tc ng

ngc chiu n tng trng GDP bnh qun u ngi ti t l gi tr hin ti ca n

trn xut khu l 160-170% v trn GDP l 35-40%.

1 HIPC: Highly Indebted Poor Country


Dung lng n ln c th nh hng ngc chiu n tng trng do tc ng

xu n tch ly vn sn xut v tng trng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp. Trong

mt nghin cu gn y, Pattillo (2003) p dng m hnh tng trng cho 61 nc

ang pht trin chu Phi, chu , chu M Latinh v Trung ng trong giai on

1969-1998. Kt qu cho thy khi n tng gp i th s lm gim 1% tng trng vn

sn xut bnh qun u ngi v tng trng nng sut cc nhn t tng hp. Thm

vo , mi trng chnh sch ca Chnh ph cng nh hng n mi quan h gia

n v tng trng.

N phi tr (khc vi tng dung lng n) c th lm suy gim u t t nhn v

thay i c cu chi tiu cng. N phi tr cao hn c th lm tng cc khon chi tiu

ca Chnh ph, gy ra thm ht ngn sch, gim tit kim cng v do s lm tng li

sut hoc ct gim cc khon tn dng cho u t t nhn, cui cng s tc ng xu

n tng trng kinh t. N phi tr cao cng c th c nh hng khng tt n c

cu chi tiu cng thng qua km hm cc ngun lc dnh cho c s h tng v vn

nhn lc, t cng cn tr tng trng kinh t. Tm li, theo quan im ca mt s t

chc phi chnh ph (NGOs), n phi tr cao l mt trong nhng tr ngi ln nht trong

vic p ng cc nhu cu c bn ca ngi dn cc nc ang pht trin.

Mt vi nghin cu thc nghim i vo nh gi nh hng ca n phi tr ti

u t t nhn hoc ti kt cu chi tiu cng. Greene v Villanueva (1991) kt lun n

phi tr lm gim u t t nhn, trong khi Serieux v Samy (2001) li tm ra mt mi

lin h tng t gia n phi tr v tng u t. i vi mu nghin cu gm nhiu

nc ang pht trin, bao gm c cc nc HIPC, Savvides (1992) chng t rng n

phi tr khin cho chi tiu u t cng suy gim. S dng d liu gm 24 nc HIPC

chu Phi, Stephens (2001) i ti kt lun: n phi tr tng 1$ s dn ti: (a) chi tiu

cho gio dc gim 0.33$, (b) chi tr lng cho chnh ph gim 0.14-0.23$, v (c) chi

tiu cho y t tng 0.12-0.13$. Do vy. cc kt qu ny ch ra rng n phi tr tng ln

cha chc lm gim vn nhn lc (trong trng hp ny l chi tiu cho y t).


Di y l bng tng hp mt s nghin cu ni bt gn y v mi quan h

gia n nc ngoi v tng trng kinh t:

Bng 3: Mt s nghin cu gn y v mi quan h gia n nc ngoi v tng

trng kinh t

Nm Tc gi v m hnh Thi gian v nm

gc Kt qu

1989 Bauerfreund,

Computable General

Equilibrium Model

Nm gc l 1985,

Turkey

Tr n nc ngoi lm gim mc u

t Th Nh K trong nm 1985

1990 Geiger, OLS, A

Distributional Lag

Model

1974-1986, 9 nc

Nam M

C mi quan h ngc chiu gia

gnh nng n v tng trng kinh t

1992 Warner, OLS Method 1960-1981 v

1982-1989, 13

nc ang pht

trin

N nc ngoi khng lm gim u t

1992 Savvides , OLS

Method

1980- 1986, 43

nc l con n ln

Debt overhang v s suy gim ca

dng vn nc ngoi vo nh

hng ng chiu n t l u t.

1993 Afxentiou, Granger

Causality Tests

1971-1988, 20

nc ang pht

trin c thu nhp

trung bnh

C mi quan h ngc chiu gia vay

n v tng trng GDP

1993 Cohen, OLS Method 1965-1987, 81

nc ang pht

trin

N nc ngoi khng nh hng n

tc tng GNP

1993

Cunnigham, Pooled,

Cross Sectional and

Time Series

1971-1979,

v 1980-1987

16 nc l con n

ln

C mi quan h ngc chiu gia tng

trng kinh t v gnh nng vay n

trong giai on 1971-1979


1994 Chowdhury,

Causality Tests, Time

Series

Analysis

1970-1988,

8 nc ang pht

trin

N nc ngoi khng nh hng n

tc tng GNP

1994

Rockerbie, OLS

Method, Nested and

Non-Nested Tests

1965-1990,

13 nc ang pht

trin

Vic chi tr cho cc khon n nc

ngoi nh hng ngc chiu n tng

trng kinh t.

1994 Sawada, OLS

Method, Time Series

1955-1990, cc

nc HIPC

Cc nc HIPC gp phi vn debt

overhang

1995 Smyth and Hsing,

OLS Method.

Mu s liu ca

Hoa K, 1960-

1981

Trong sut nhng nm 1980 v u

nhng nm 1990, vic chi tr cho cc

khon n quc gia kch thch tng

trng kinh t, song trong nm 1986

v 1993, t l n c d bo l tc

ng xu n tng trng.

1996 Afxentiou and

Serletis, OLS Method

1970-1990,

55 nc ang pht

trin

Vi giai on 1970-1980, n nc

ngoi khng nh hng ngc chiu

n tng trng kinh t, vi giai on

1980-1990 mi quan h ny l ngc

chiu v vi giai on 1970-1990, nh

hng ca vn debt overhang

1996(a)

Afxentiou and

Serletis, Granger

Causality, OLS

1970-1980,

55 nc ang pht

trin

Khng c mi lin h nhn qu gia

n v thu nhp

1996 Amoateng and

Amoako-Adu,

Granger Causality

Tests

1971-1982 v

1983-

1990, 35 nc

ang pht trin

Tng trng GDP v chi tr cho n

nc ngoi c mi lin h thun chiu

1996 Fosu, OLS Method 1970-1986,

Cc nc Sub-

Saharan

Vn debt overhang khng quan

bng tc ng trc tip ca gi thuyt

n. iu ny tc l cc khon chi tr

cho n nc ngoi lm gim tng

trng sn lng do trc tip gim


nng sut

1997

Deshpande, OLS

Estimation for Panel

Data

1971-1991,

13 nc ang l

con n ln

N nc ngoi v u t c mi lin

h ngc chiu

1999 Fosu, OLS

Estimation

1980-1990, 35

nc Sub-Saharan

N qu ngng tc ng ngc chiu

n tng trng kinh t

2002 Karagol, Causality 1965-2001, Turkey Chi tr cho n nc ngoi lin h

ngc chiu n tng trng kinh t

trong di hn

Tm li, da trn cc nghin cu thc nghim hin nay, chng ta cha th i n

mt kt lun thng nht v mi quan h gia tng n nc ngoi v n phi tr vi

tng trng kinh t, c bit l cc nc c thu nhp thp. Vic chng minh n nc

ngoi c nh hng hay khng ti tng trng kinh t v nu c nh hng th nh

hng ngc chiu hay thun chiu vn cn l mt cu hi ln v i hi cc

nghin cu su hn. Cc ti liu nghin cu cng cho thy rng tc ng ca n nc

ngoi n tng trng kinh t l khc nhau tng quc gia. Da vo cc kt qu tm

c, chng ta cng khng th khi qut ha mt mi lin h gia hai bin s kinh t

trn. Do , khi hoch nh cc chnh sch khc phc gnh nng vay n nc ngoi v

kch thch tng trng kinh t, chng ta cn phi nghin cu mi lin h ny trong

trng hp tng quc gia ring bit.


CHNG II: THC TRNG VN N NOC NGOI V PHN

TCH MI QUAN H NH LNG GIA N NC NGOI V

TNG TRNG KINH T CA VIT NAM

2.1 Thc trng tnh hnh vay n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam trong

giai on 1986-2009:

Vit Nam l mt nc c nn kinh t nng nghip ngho nn lc hu li phi

gnh chu nhng hu qu nng n ca cuc chin tranh chng quc trng k nn

c th ni tim lc v vn, cng ngh, con ngi cng nh v th ca Vit Nam trn

trng quc t l tng i thp. Nm 1986 nh mt du mc quan trng i vi

nn kinh t Vit Nam, nc ta t mt nc c nn kinh t k hoch ha tp trung quan

liu bao cp chnh thc chuyn sang nn kinh t th trng. T n nay, ng v

Nh nc khng ngng xy dng v hon thin chnh sch, nn tng php l v c

s h tng phc v cho s pht trin chung ca c t nc. Tuy nhin, c th thc

hin thnh cng cng cuc i mi pht trin t nc th vn l mt yu t v cng

quan trng m chng ta cn thiu. Chnh ph Vit Nam phi i vay cc c nhn, t

chc trong nc cng nh quc t b p li khon thiu ht trn. Trong , phn

ln l cc khon vay n nc ngoi.

nh gi v thc trng n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam, chng ta c th xem xt

da trn cc phng din: Quy m, c cu v cc ch s v kh nng tr n.

2.1.1 Quy m:

Tng d n nuc ngoi v tng sn phm quc ni


Biu 1: Tng n, n phi tr, GDP, tng trng

Ngun : Key Indicators ADB, Tng cc thng k

Trong nhng nm u thp nin 90, Vit Nam l mt nc n ln, tng n cao

hn nhiu ln so vi tng sn phm quc ni. Tng n nm 1990 l 23,27 t USD

trong khi tng sn phm quc ni ch l 6,4 t USD cho thy s khng hong v kh

nng thanh ton n ca Vit Nam. T nm 1997, tng n ca Vit Nam c ci thin

do m phn thnh cng vi cc ch n thnh vin ca cu lc b Paris, gim n

745 trin USD (tng ng 60% s n); cu lc b London, gim c 572 triu

USD (tng ng) 53% s n. c bit, sau tm vng m phn t nm 1994-2000,

Vit Nam v Lin Bang Nga k kt hip nh x l n tng th ca Vit Nam vi

Lin X, c th gim 85% tng n c, tng ng 9,3 t USD. Hip nh ny a

mc n tn ng ca nm 1999 l 23, 260 t USD, gim xung cn 12,787 t USD

vo nm 2000. Cng thm vo , nn kinh t Vit Nam lun tng trng mc cao

v n nh trong thp nin 1990 nn n nm 2000, tng n ch bng khong 1/3 so vi

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000% Mn USD

Tng d n nc ngoi, n nc ngoi phi tr hng nm, GDP, t l tng trng GDP

GDP Tng d n nc ngoi

N nc ngoi phi tr hng nm T l tng trng GDP


tng sn phm quc ni. Theo nh gi ca cc chuyn gia th n ca Vit Nam hin

nay cha phi l nhiu nu so vi mt s nc trong khu vc Chu nh Trung Quc,

Indonesia, Thi Lan.

Cng vi s tng trng kh quan ca nn kinh t, Vit Nam cng nhn c s

tn nhim ca cng ng quc t. Vit Nam lin tc nhn c nhng khon vay u

i h tr pht trin m ni bt l nhng khon ODA n t Nht Bn, WB v ADB.

Do , tng n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam ang c xu hng lin tc tng trong nhng

nm gn y. n nm 2009, theo c tnh ca b ti chnh th n nc ngoi ca Vit

Nam vo khong 27 t USD bng xp x 30% GDP.

N phi tr hng nm v gi tr xut khu

Biu 2: Total debt, debt service and total export

Ngun:Key indicator Asia Development Bank 2009, EIU Vietnam country report 2010

Gi tr xut khu l ngun thu ngoi t xut khu th hin cho kh nng tr n ca

mt quc gia. Thc hin chnh sch m ca, hi nhp vi kinh t ca khu vc v th

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Tng d n nc ngoi, n phi tr hng nm, xut khu

Xut khu Tng d n nc ngoi N nc ngoi phi tr hng nm


gii, VN l mt trong nhng nc c m ca thng mi ln nht th gii (t l gi

tr xut nhp khu/GDP l 150%). Tng gi tr xut khu ca VN tng 24 ln t 2,4

t USD nm 1990 ln 57 t USD nm 2009 v hn gp i tng s n hin hu. Mc

d VN c mc tng n ln nhng n phi tr hng nm bao gm tr n gc v tr li

li kh thp do phn ln cc khon n l nhng khon vin tr khng hon li hoc vay

u i vi li sut thp. Gi tr xut khu cao hn gp nhiu ln so vi s n phi tr

hng nm cho thy tnh thanh khon trong kh nng thanh ton n nc ngoi.

Tuy nhin, nu so vi qui m ca nn kinh t, mc d tr ngoi t cn qu t th

tng mc n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam khng phi l nh. Hn na n nc ngoi

cng tch t mt khi lng ng k n n hn phi tr hng nm, nm 2003 chng

ta phi tr c gc v li l 1.630 triu USD v tng ln 1.952 triu USD vo nm 2006,

trong khi kh nng thanh ton n ca nn kinh t ni chung v ca ngn sch N h

nc ni ring l rt kh khn.

2.1.2 C cu:

Nhn chung, c cu d n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam phn theo nhm ngi i

vay tng i n nh qua cc nm. Tuy nhin, c cu n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam

cha hp l. Phn ln cc khon vay l ca chnh ph v c chnh ph bo lnh, cn

n t nhn ch bng khong xp x 20% trong tng d n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam.

iu ny to p lc cho chnh ph phi to ngun tr n. Mt khc cc khon vay

trong nhng nm 90 sp n hn, thi gian n hn cho nhng khon vay trc s

dn kt thc ngha v n tng ln s gy nhng kh khn cho cng tc tr n.


Biu 3: C cu d n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam phn theo nhm ngi i vay

Ngun: IMF, Bn tin n nc ngoi B ti chnh

C cu d n nc ngoi ca chnh ph phn theo loi iu kin tn dng:

N nc ngoi ca Chnh ph v c chnh ph bo lnh ch yu c thc

hin di 3 hnh thc :

- N ODA (phn cho vay u i trong khon h tr pht trin chnh thc ODA)

- Vay thng mi qua cc hp ng vay song phng hay a phng.

- Pht hnh tri phiu quc t.

Trong , n ODA, chim ti 70% trong c cu d n ca chnh ph Vit Nam.

Biu 4: C cu d n nc ngoi ca chnh ph v c chnh ph bo lnh

phn theo loi iu kin tn dng tnh n 30/6/2009

Ngun: Bn tin n nc ngoi s 4 B ti chnh

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2003 2004 2005 2006

C cu d n nc ngoi phn theo nhm ngi i vay

N t nhn

N c chnh ph bo lnh

N chnh ph

73%

5%

22%

C cu d n nc ngoi ca chnh ph v c chnh ph bo lnh phn theo loi iu kin tn dng tnh n 30/06/2009

Vay ODA

Vay u i

Vay thng mi


Tng quan v n ODA ti VN

Trong tng s vn ODA cam kt m chng ta nhn c giai on 1993 - 2007,

khong 15 - 20% l vin tr khng hon li, cn phn ln l vn cho vay u i i vi

Chnh ph. Ngun vn ODA huy ng c s dng b sung cho u t pht trin

kinh t - x hi, chim khong 12% tng u t ton x hi, bng 28% tng vn u t

t NSNN.

Biu 5: Cam kt k kt gii ngn vn ODA

Ngun: Asia Development Bank 2007

Mc cam kt ODA hng nm u tng, nm sau cao hn nm trc. Trong thi k

1993 - 2007, tng gi tr ODA cam kt t 40,751 t USD. iu ny th hin s ng h

mnh m ca cng ng quc t i vi qu trnh pht trin kinh t ca Vit Nam. Tuy

nhin, t l gii ngn cn kh thp trung bnh ch bng 60% vn cam kt v bng

khong 80% vn k kt. T l vn k kt thp hn vn cam kt cng cho thy VN cn

phi n lc hn na nhn c s tin tng ca cc nh ti tr vo cc d n pht

trin ca VN. T l gii ngn thp cn th hin kh nng hp th yu km ca th ch

i vi s quan tm ca cng ng th gii.


Trong s 51 nh ti tr thng xuyn cho Vit Nam, c 28 nh ti tr song

phng v 23 nh ti tr a phng, c 3 nh ti tr cung cp ch yu l Nht Bn,

WB v ADB, chim khong 80% tng gi tr ODA k kt.

Biu 6: 10 nh ti tr hng u cho VN 1990 2005

Ngun: Planning and Investment Ministry

L nn kinh t ln th 2 th gii v cng l nc c chnh sch h tr tch cc

vn ODA cho cc nc ang pht trin, Nht Bn hin l nh ti tr ln nht ca Vit

Nam, vi gn 5 t USD cao hn hn nhng nh ti tr khc. Do c li th v cng

ngh v k thut xy dng h tng nn vn ODA t Nht Bn ch yu l dnh cho xy

dng h tng giao thng vi iu kin km theo thng l cc cng ty ca Nht Bn

thit k, thi cng v gim st. Trong khi , Ngn hng Th gii (WB) v Ngn hng

Pht trin chu (ABD) thng ti tr vn cho cc chng trnh xa i gim ngho,

nng nghip v pht trin nng thn, nng cao nng lc qun l nh nc v xy dng

h thng php l. i hi ca nh ti tr ny thng i km vi cc yu cu v ci

cch hnh chnh v c ch qun l kinh t. Vn ODA t ba nh ti tr ln nht ny

ch yu l vay u i, t l vin tr khng hon li rt thp.


Ngc li, vn vin tr t cc quc gia pht trin chu u mc d thp hn kh

nhiu so vi ba nh ti tr trn nhng ch yu l vin tr khng hon li, tp trung

cc lnh vc nh gio dc (France), nc sch (Denmark), mi trng (Sweden).

i vi nc tip nhn, ODA c xem nh mt ngun lc thc s nu n c

kt hp hiu qu vi cc ngun lc trong nc khc t c mc tiu quc gia

trong tng thi k nht nh. T nhng tc ng ca ngun vn ny trong thi gian

qua, c th khng nh ODA Vit Nam tr thnh mt ngun vn tht s v hiu

qu trong tin trnh i mi. Tuy nhin, bn cnh nhng thnh cng trong thu ht v s

dng vn ODA, cn tn ti nhiu vn m Vit Nam cn phi gii quyt s dng

ngun vn ny c hiu qu hn trong tng lai.

Tng quan v vay thng mi

Bo lnh Chnh ph i vi cc khon vay nc ngoi ca cc doanh nghip v

t chc tn dng

Bo lnh Chnh ph i vi cc doanh nghip v cc t chc tn dng khi vay

nc ngoi c thc hin nhm mc ch h tr vn cho cc doanh nghip pht trin

hot ng sn xut kinh doanh trong khi ngun lc c gii hn. Cc doanh nghip vay

n c bo lnh bao gm cc doanh nghip u t trc tip t nc ngoi (doanh nghip

FDI) v cc doanh nghip Nh nc c quy m ln trong cc ngnh Bu chnh vin

thng, du kh, in lc, xi mng, hng khng v dt. Tnh n ht 30/6/2009, tng s

vay nc ngoi ca cc doanh nghip c Chnh ph bo lnh l 3,68 t USD.2

Trong c cu n vay c bo lnh, n ngn hn chim t trng rt nh (khong

4,8%), ch yu l n trung v di hn. Nhn chung n c bo lnh p ng c yu

cu cho qu trnh u t trung v di hn. Cho n thi im hin nay, hu nh cc d

n vay n nc ngoi c bo lnh u trong qu trnh xy dng hoc mi a vo s

dng nn cha pht sinh n qu hn.

2 Ngun: Bn tin n nc ngoi B ti chnh


Vay v tr n nc ngoi ca cc tnh, thnh ph trc thuc Trung ng

Bn cnh khon n vay trc tip ca chnh quyn trung ng, cc tnh, thnh ph

trc thuc trung ng khi mun gia tng ngun vn u t pht trin kinh t cng tin

hnh hot ng vay n di 2 hnh thc, pht hnh tri phiu chnh quyn a phng

v vay nc ngoi. Theo quy nh, chnh quyn a phng khng c trc tip tin

hnh vay n nc ngoi m phi thng qua chnh ph nn trn thc t, vn vay nc

ngoi ca cc a phng ch yu l vn ODA do chnh ph cho vay li hoc phn th

hng t cc d n u t trc tip v gin tip ca cc c quan trung ng thc hin

trn a bn.

Biu 7: Vn vay nc ngoi ca cc a phng (n v : %)

Ngun: Bo co ca B K hoch v u t

Nhn biu 5, ta thy vn vay ca chnh quyn a phng ch yu l khu vc

ng bng Bc B (34,4%). iu ny cng ph hp vi quy hoch pht trin vng,

min trn a bn c nc v khu vc ny c tim nng kinh t rt ln nhng khai thc

cha hiu qu.

7

34.4

7.6 18.1

6.2

8

18.7

Vn vay ca cc a phng

Vng ni pha Bc

Vng ng bng Bc B (k c H Ni)

Bc Trung B

Duyn hi Min Trung

Ty Nguyn

ng bng sng Cu Long

ng Nam B (k c TP.HCM)


Tng quan v pht hnh tri phiu quc t

Sau mt giai on chun b, ngy 27/10/2005, Chnh ph chnh thc pht hnh

tri phiu trn th trng chng khon New York vi tng s vn huy ng c l

750 triu USD, li sut 7,125%/nm, thi hn 10 nm.3 t pht hnh tri phiu Chnh

ph ln u tin ra th trng vn quc t gip Vit Nam a dng ha ngun huy

ng vn, thit lp mt thang chun gip cho cc doanh nghip v a phng

huy ng vn sau ny.

Tri phiu quc t ca Chnh ph thu ht c s quan tm rt ln ca cc nh

u t nc ngoi trn khp th gii. Trong s 255 nh u t mua tri phiu c 51%

l cc qu u t ti chnh, ngn hng 25%, cc cng ty bo him 17% v 7% l cc t

chc u t khc. S tri phiu ny c pht hnh rng ri chu (nm gi 38%),

Chu u (32%) v M (30%). Ton b s tin huy ng c giao cho Tng Cng ty

Cng nghip Tu Thy Vit Nam (Vinashin) s dng u t pht trin sn xut kinh

doanh.

Vic pht hnh tri phiu quc t c th thc hin qua 3 hnh thc: Chnh ph

Vit Nam pht hnh v cho vay li; Chnh ph bo lnh cho doanh nghip pht hnh

tri phiu doanh nghip; Doanh nghip t trc tip pht hnh m chnh ph khng phi

bo lnh. Tuy nhin, cc tp on ln ca Vit Nam c k vng vn cha hi

iu kin pht hnh tri phiu quc t. Mi nht, vo ngy 26/1/2010, chnh ph

Vit Nam pht hnh 1 t USD tri phiu trn th trng quc t vi thi hn 10 nm

v li tc 6,95%.4 y cng l ln th ba Chnh ph vay tin cc doanh nghip nh

nc vay li sau 2 t pht hnh vo nm 2005 v 2007.

3 Ngun: http://www.mof.gov.vn/Default.aspx?tabid=6083&ItemID=28290

4 Ngun: http://dddn.com.vn/201002010139232cat109/phat-hanh-trai-phieu-chinh-phu-tren-thi-truong-quoc-te-

va-van-de-lien-quan.htm

http://www.mof.gov.vn/Default.aspx?tabid=6083&ItemID=28290http://dddn.com.vn/201002010139232cat109/phat-hanh-trai-phieu-chinh-phu-tren-thi-truong-quoc-te-va-van-de-lien-quan.htmhttp://dddn.com.vn/201002010139232cat109/phat-hanh-trai-phieu-chinh-phu-tren-thi-truong-quoc-te-va-van-de-lien-quan.htm


D n nc ngoi ca chnh ph phn theo loi ch n v loi tin :

Biu 8: D n nc ngoi ca chnh ph phn theo ch n v theo loi tin

Ngun: Bn tin n nc ngoi s 4 B ti chnh

C cu v n ngn hn v di hn

C cu v t l n ngn hn v di hn cho thy kh nng n nh ca dng vn

vay n nc ngoi. T l vay ngn hn cng cao th dng vn cng d i chiu v gy

bt n cho nn kinh t.

Biu di y cho thy tuy c mc vay n nhiu nhng c cu n nc ngoi

ca VN ch yu l n di hn. T l n di hn trn tng n lun mc trn di 90%

trong khi n ngn hn trn tng n thng mc di 10%, thi im cao nht cng

mc 14% nm 1996. Cuc khng hong ti chnh Chu nm 1997 khin nhiu nc

ri vo khng hong do cc dng vn chy ra nht l nhng nc vay n ngn hn cao

nh Thi Lan, nhng VN li khng b nh hng trc tip mt phn cng v t l vay

ngn hn thp.

48%

37%

4% 10%

1%

D n nc ngoi ca chnh ph v c chnh ph bo lnh phn theo nhm ngi cho vay v loi ch n

tnh n 30/06/2009

Song phng a phng

Ngi nm gi tri phiu Ngn hng thng mi

Cc ch n t nhn khc

40%

16% 12%

28%

4%

D n nc ngoi ca chnh ph phn theo loi tin tnh n

30/6/2009

JPY USD EUR SDR Khc


Biu 9: T l n vay ngn hn v di hn ca Vit Nam

Ngun: Asia Development Bank, 2009

2.1.3 Cc ch s nh gi kh nng tr n ca Vit Nam

Bng 4:Mt s ch tiu nh gi kh nng tr n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam

Nm 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Tng n nc ngoi/ GDP(%) 37.2 32.2 31.4 32.5 29.8

Tng n nc ngoi khu vc cng/ GDP (%) 29.9 27.8 26.7 28.2 25.1

N phi tr hng nm/ Xut khu (%) 5.5 4.8 4 3.9 3.3

N phi tr hng nm ca chnh ph/ Tng

thu ngn sch nh nc (%) 4.9 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.5

D tr ngoi hi/ N ngn hn (%) 1,943 4,075 6,380 10,177 2,808

Ngha v n d phng ca chnh ph/ thu

ngn sch nh nc (%) 5.3 5.2 4.5 4.6 4.7

Ngun: Bn tin n nc ngoi s 4 - B ti chnh

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Evolution of external debt in Vietnam, 19902006 (Per cent of GNI)

Total long-term debt percent of GNI Short-term debt percent of GNI


Cc ch s v n cho thy mt h s an ton cao i vi tnh trng n ca VN.

Ch s v tng n trn tng thu nhp quc dn (38%) vo mc trung bnh v gim t

nm 2000 ti 2005, nhng li ang c xu hng tng tr li trong nhng nm gn y.

Ngoi ra, hu ht cc ch s khc u di mc c th gy ra khng hong v n

hoc tnh thiu thanh khon tr n.

Theo nh gi ca WB n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam hin nay c nh gi l n

nh, gnh nng v n v ngha v tr n nc ngoi cha ngng nguy him, tnh

trng n nc ngoi vn ang trong tm kim sot. Song chng ta khng th ch

quan, m n lc phi thn trng hn trong vay n nc ngoi. D s d n vay

thm hng nm ca Vit Nam c gim nhng ch l do cc ch n xa v gim n

ch khng phi ta s dng ngun lc ca mnh tr n. Thm vo l n vay thm

tng ln nhanh chng to ra nhng nguy c vay n ngy cng cao trong khi tc tng

trng li khng tng xng vi tc gia tng ca n. iu ny c th dn n v n

v mt ch quyn quc gia. Lc , s nh hng n mi trng u t, hn ch

lung vn nc ngoi chy vo trong nc. Vn thm ht NSNN v mt cn i

gia tit kim v u t c l l nhn t ch yu lm n vay thm ca Vit Nam hng

nm tng ln nhanh chng. Ngoi ra cn phi k n tc tng trng, t gi hi

oi, li sut, lm pht cng nh hng n tnh hnh vay n.

Theo d bo ca cc t chc kinh t nh WB, IMF, EIU, nhm mc tiu duy tr

tc tng trng cho nn, kinh t n khu vc cng ca Vit Nam s gia tng nhanh

chng trong thi gian ti, trong phi k ti s gia tng ca n nc ngoi. Tuy

nhin, hin c rt nhiu mu thun trong nhng nh gi, d bo v xu hng gia tng

cng nh kh nng tr n ca nn kinh t Vit Nam. Trong bo co phn tch kh nng

chu ng n ca nn kinh t Vit Nam nm 2007 ca World Bank v IMF c

nhng nhn nh kh lc quan v vn n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam nh sau:


Bng 5: D bo mt s ch tiu n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam ca IMF v WB

Nm 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2017 2027

NPV of debt-to-GDP ratio 18 19 18 17 17 17 17 12

NPV of debt-to-exports ratio 24 24 22 21 20 20 18 14

NPV of debt-to-revenue ratio 73 74 72 70 72 74 72 50

Debt service-to-exports ratio 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Debt service-to-revenue ratio 10 11 11 12 13 14 15 13

Ngun: Bo co phn tch kh nng chu ng n ca nn kinh t Vit Nam nm 2007

ca World Bank v IMF

Trong thi gian gn y, hu ht cc t chc u nhn nh n cng ca Vit

Nam s vt ngng chun v mc an ton ca WB l 50% trc nm 2015, trong

n nc ngoi s tim cn con s 50%. c bit, trong World Factbook, CIA khng

nh t l n nc ngoi ca VN nm 2009 ln ti con s 52% so vi GDP. Trong

bo co mi y ca mnh vo thng 2 nm 2010, t chc EIU d bo n cng ca

Vit Nam s vo khong 54.2% vo nm 2010 v n nc ngoi l 33,3% vo nm

2010.

Bng 6: D bo mt s ch tiu n nuc ngoi ca Vit Nam ca EIU

Nm 2008b 2009b 2010c 2011c 2012 c 2013c 2014c

Total external debt (US$ bn) 25.9 26.6 33.3 37.5 41.7 44.4 47.2

Total external debt (% of

GDP) 28.8 28.7 33.5 33.9 34.0 32.9 31.8

Debt/exports ratio (%) 33.4 38.5 42.0 41.8 40.4 37.4 34.4

Debt-service ratio, paid (%) 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5

a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.


Thm vo , hin nay, chnh ph ang cn nhc xy dng ng st cao tc Bc

Nam vi tng vn u t vo khong 60 t USD (bng 2/3 GDP nm 2009), trong

xc nh phn ln vn u t l khon vay n nc ngoi. Nh vy, cha cn bit hiu

qu ca d n t c ti mc no th nu d n trn c thng qua, chc chn t l

n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam s vt xa ngng an ton ca WB quy nh, Vit Nam

s tr thnh mt con n ln v nguy c v n nu d n khng thnh cng l rt cao.

Tnh trng vay n qu mc s nh hng nghim trng n nn kinh t v m.

l gy tn tht v tnh hiu qu ca vic nh thu: vay n nhiu to p lc buc nh

nc phi tng thu tr n vay v iu ny s cng lm bp mo kinh t v m, nh

hng n thu ht vn nc ngoi.

2.1.4 Nhng nguy c lm gia tng n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam

Mc d mi ch s nh gi v n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam ang nm trong gii

hn an ton theo chun mc ca WB v khng ng lo ngi, nhng thc t, n nc

ngoi ca Vit Nam gim l do c gim n ch khng phi ni lc tr n. Liu nu

khng c vic c min gim n , Vit Nam c v n hay khng? Chc chn

khng t ngi c cu tr li l c. Do nu chng ta khng nhn li v ghi khc vn

hi c mt khng ai ca giai on bt u chuyn i th chng ta s gp rt nhiu

kh khn trong chi tr. Hin nay n nc ngoi vn ngy cng tng, thm vo cc

nguy c lm gia tng n vn lun tim n, trong khi tc tng trng kinh t li

khng tng xng vi tc gia tng n, iu ny d dn ti gia tng ri ro ti chnh.

2.1.4.1 Nguy c vay thm hng nm do mt cn i trong tit kim - u t v

thm ht ngn sch

- Mt cn i gia tit kim v u t:

Trong nhng nm gn y, mc gia tng tit kim ni a Vit Nam thp hn

mc gia tng u t gy ra s mt cn i gia tit kim v u t, sau khi t mc


thng d vo 2000, 2001 th nhng nm tip theo cn cn tit kim - u t lin tc b

thm ht.

Bng 7: T l tit kim u t so vi GDP

Nm 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

- Tng tit kim (% GDP) 31,7 33,2 32 30,4 31,1 30,1 31 31,3

- Tng u t (% GDP) 29,6 31,2 33,2 35,1 35,5 34,6 34,5 34,7

- Cn cn tit kim v u

t (% GDP) 2,1 2 -1,2 -4,7 -4,4 -4,5 -3,5 -3,4

Ngun: IMF

Theo mc tiu m chnh ph a ra trong giai on 2001 2010 l phn u t

tc tng trng kinh t trung bnh trn 7%/nm th t l nhu cu v vn cho pht

trin phi t khong t 31 - 32% GDP. Tng mc u t ton x hi khong 135 t-

140 t USD, t l vn trong nc chim khong 2/3 tng vn u t, tc c th p

ng khong 98 - 100 t USD. Nh vy ngun vn nc ngoi cn huy ng b sung

cho u t pht trin t 45 - 50 t USD, trong ngun vn FDI d kin khong 25 t

USD, phn cn li phi huy ng vn vay n v vin tr nc ngoi khong 20 - 25 t

USD. Do tng t l tit kim ni a l rt cn thit nhm gim bt gnh nng n

nc ngoi.

- Thm ht ngn sch

Khi gia nhp WTO, ngun thu t thu nhp khu ca NSNN s gim xung do

cc cam kt ct gim thu quan. Theo tnh ton ca B Ti chnh, ngun thu t thu

nhp khu - mt loi thu chim t trng ln trong tng thu NSNN s gim bnh qun

mi nm 1.000 t ng trong giai on 5 nm sau khi gia nhp WTO. Trong khi

NSNN cho nhu cu chi thng xuyn v chi ph pht sinh trong giai on 2006 - 2010

ngy cng tng. V th tnh trng thm ht NSNN ngy cng gia tng s to ra nguy c


n vay nc ngoi ngy cng cao do ngun vay trong nc kh c th thc hin v tit

kim ni a thp.

2.1.4.2 Nguy c mt kh nng thanh ton li vay t nhng nhn t tc ng

n chi ph s dng n vay ca Vit Nam

- Lm pht:

Lm pht cao l nguyn nhn mt gi ng ni t, v vy s lm tng n thc t

ca mt quc gia. Do nhng nguyn nhn bt n trn th gii cng vi din bin gi

du th gii ngy mt leo thang, tc tng ch s gi tiu ng (CPI) ca Vit Nam

lin tc tng trong nhng nm gn y, y lm pht tng cao t bin ln ti hn

25% vo nm 2008 (Ngun: Tng cc thng k), mc cao nht trong khu vc ng

Nam .

- T gi hi oi

Nh phn tch trong phn c cu n vay, n nc ngoi ca Vit Nam ch yu

l n trung v di hn do chu nh hng ca ri ro t gi l rt ln, li vay thc t

ngy cng gia tng v sau khi t gi gia tng. Mc d t gi hi oi danh ngha ca

ng Vit Nam so vi USD trong nhng nm qua l tng i n nh, tuy nhin nhiu

chuyn gia cho rng ng Vit Nam ang c nh gi qu cao so vi sc mua thc

t. Trong nhng nm ti khi chng ta tin hnh t do ti chnh mnh m, t gi c

xc nh theo quan h cung cu trn th trng th VND s tr v gi tr thc ca n lc

t gi s gia tng nhanh, nh vy li vay cc khon n ang c nguy c gia tng.

- H s tn nhim:

Ngy 7/9/2006, t chc S & P chnh thc nng h s tn nhim quc gia ca

Vit Nam vi tt c cc loi h s tn nhim. C th: H s tn nhim ca nh pht

hnh bng ngoi t t mc BB - (trin vng tch cc) ln mc BB ln mc BB (trin

vng n nh). H s tn nhim cho khon vay ngoi t khng bo m n hn vo

2016 t mc BB - ln BB.


Ngy 2/4/2007 T chc hp tc v pht trin kinh t OECD (T chc ca cc

nc pht trin) b phiu xp hng li phn loi ri ro tn dng cho cc nc. Trong

ln b phiu ny Vit Nam c nng hng t nhm 5 ln nhm 4.

Trong thng 3/2007, t chc t nhn chuyn nh gi ri ro tn dng MoodyS

nng hng ri ro tri phiu chnh ph bng ngoi t ca Vit Nam t Ba n nh ln

Ba tch cc(Ba3), v tip tc duy tr v tr ny cho n nm 2009. Mc xp hng ny

tng ng vi Philippines v thp hn 1 bc so vi Indonesia, nhng thp hn 3 bc

so vi mc chun ca u t tri phiu.5

Tt c nhng ch s trn th hin tim nng tng trng kinh t ngy cng gia

tng ca nn kinh t Vit Nam cng nh Vit Nam ang ngy cng dnh c s tin

tng ca bn b th gii. Tuy nhin, vi kt qu h s tn nhim quc gia ca Vit

Nam c nh gi nh hin nay l tng i thp, m bng chng l trong t pht

hnh tri phiu quc t ln u ra th trng quc t nh u t ch mua tri phiu vi

gi bng 98,223% mnh gi. Nu chng ta ci thin c h s tn nhim th s huy

ng vn trn th trng quc t vi li sut thp hn.

2.1.5 Hiu qu s dng n vay:

Khng th ph nhn vn vay nc ngoi c tc ng tch cc ti tng trng kinh

t ca Vit Nam trong thi gian qua. Vn vay nc ngoi l ngun h tr ch yu cho

qu trnh iu hnh v cn i NSNN m minh chng l s n nh ca NSNN. Ngun

vn vay ca Chnh ph c u tin u t pht trin h tng kinh t x hi, c th cc

d n v giao thng, y t, gio dc hoc cc d n nng nghip pht trin nng thn,

xa i gim ngho

Trong nhng nm qua, nhiu d n u t bng vn ODA (chim mt t trng

ln trong c cu n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph) hon thnh v c a vo s

5 Ngun: http://dddn.com.vn/201002010139232cat109/phat-hanh-trai-phieu-chinh-phu-tren-thi-truong-quoc-te-

va-van-de-lien-quan.htm

http://dddn.com.vn/201002010139232cat109/phat-hanh-trai-phieu-chinh-phu-tren-thi-truong-quoc-te-va-van-de-lien-quan.htmhttp://dddn.com.vn/201002010139232cat109/phat-hanh-trai-phieu-chinh-phu-tren-thi-truong-quoc-te-va-van-de-lien-quan.htm


dng, gp phn tng trng kinh t, xo i, gim ngho nh Nh my Nhit in Ph

M 2 - 1; nh my thy in sng Hinh; mt s d n giao thng quan trng nh Quc

l 5, Quc l lA (on H Ni - Vinh, on thnh ph H Ch Minh - Cn Th, on

thnh ph H Ch Minh - Nha Trang), cu M Thun.., nhiu trng tiu hc c

xy mi, ci to ti hu ht cc tnh; mt s bnh vin cc thnh ph, th x nh bnh

vin Bch Mai (H Ni), bnh vin Ch Ry (thnh ph H Ch Minh); nhiu trm y t

x c ci to hoc xy mi; cc h thng cp nc sinh hot nhiu tnh thnh

ph cng nh nng thn, vng ni. Cc chng trnh dn s v pht trin, chm sc

sc khe b m v tr em, tim chng m rng c thc hin mt cch c hiu qu.

Ngoi ra, cn hng lot cc cng trnh mi u t bng ngun vn ODA s c a

vo hot ng trong thi gian ti.6

Ngoi ra, vn vay cn c s dng cho cc mc tiu x hi. Trong thi gian

qua, ngun vn vay u i ca cc t chc ti chnh th gii v cc nc gp phn

khng nh vo qu trnh gii quyt vic lm cho ngi lao ng, hn ch tnh trng

tht nghip v qu trnh xa i gim ngho, ci thin cht lng cuc sng ngi dn.

Trong vn s dng n, mt iu ng quan tm l mc ch s dng n li l

yu t dn n n vay khng c s dng mt cch hiu qu. Mt trong nhng

nguyn tc huy ng vn ca Nh nc l vn vay phi c s dng ng mc ch

nh trong cc k hoch chi tit v vay, s dng v tr n; song s dng vn vay nh

th no li lin quan n tnh hnh thc t. iu dn n ngun vn khi huy ng th

rt nhanh, trong mt thi gian ngn c th p ng yu cu v vn, nhng tc gii

ngn th rt chm, nh hng n vic s dng vn sao cho va ng mc ch va

tha mn nhu cu v vn va lm cho ng vn sinh li tr n. Vi ng vn gii

ngn chm m khng c a ng vn cha gii ngn vo s dng cho mc ch

khc lm cho hiu qu ca n vay gim rt nhiu. Theo bo co ca WB, hin nay

6 Ngun: Bo co 15 nm ODA ti Vit Nam B k hoch v u t

http://oda.mpi.gov.vn/odavn/ODA%E1%BB%9FVi%E1%BB%87tNam/T%E1%BB%95ngquanv%E1%BB%81

ODA/tabid/170/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/204/15-nm-ODA--Vit-Nam.aspx

http://oda.mpi.gov.vn/odavn/ODA%E1%BB%9FVi%E1%BB%87tNam/T%E1%BB%95ngquanv%E1%BB%81ODA/tabid/170/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/204/15-nm-ODA--Vit-Nam.aspxhttp://oda.mpi.gov.vn/odavn/ODA%E1%BB%9FVi%E1%BB%87tNam/T%E1%BB%95ngquanv%E1%BB%81ODA/tabid/170/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/204/15-nm-ODA--Vit-Nam.aspx


tc gii ngn ca Vit Nam ch t khong 50%/nm. Thanh ton n ca Vit Nam

ch chim 28% GDP. y chnh l mt trong nhng vn m cc nh ti tr mong

mun Vit Nam cn quan tm ci thin. Vic chm gii ngn ng ngha vi tin trnh

thc hin chm, v th li ch thu c hn ch, nh hng n tng trng kinh t.

Ngun vn nc ngoi kt hp vi ngun vn trong nc s to nn mt hp lc

thc y nn kinh t tin mnh trn qu o tng trng v pht trin ca n. Song phi

nhn thc rng vay n nc ngoi l mt vn bt c d, l hai mt phi tri i lp

nhau v bt c lc no mt tri ca n cng c th quay li lm nh hng nn kinh t,

gy nn tnh trng khng hong n nc ngoi nu nh chng ta khng c mtchin

lc vay ti u. Cho nn, vn t ra l chng ta phi xy dng c mt chin lc

ton din v kim sot v qun l n, hnh thnh cc ch tiu nh gi mc an ton

trong vay n, tnh bn vng ca n.

2.1.6 C ch qun l n vay:

C ch qun l n vay ca Vit Nam hin nay cn tn ti nhiu bt cp.

H thng cc c quan thc hin qun l n Chnh ph hin nay vn cha phn

nh r rng chc nng, nhim v. Vi s lng cc c quan tham gia qun l n hin

nay, kh c th v thm ch khng th c nhng phn hi kp thi i vi cc c hi th

trng. Chng hn trong huy ng n mi, quy trnh ph duyt c th ko di 6 8

thng. Khi Vit Nam chuyn sang huy ng nhiu hn theo hng th trng, y s l

vn ln i vi cc nh qun l n.

S lng cc c quan trn gim xung sau khi ban hnh Lut Ngn sch sa

i. Tuy nhin, vn cn mt s lng ln cc c quan chu trch nhim v gim st,

phn tch v qun l n Chnh ph.

Hin nay c B Ti chnh, B K hoch v u t, Ngn hng nh nc v mt s

c quan ngnh khc cng c giao nhim v qun l n Chnh ph m khng xc

nh c chnh xc phm vi hot ng ca tng n v. Lut NSNN quy nh B T

chnh l c quan xy dng chin lc, k hoch vay n, tr n trong v ngoi nc


(iu 21), Quy ch qun l vay v tr n nc ngoi quy nh B K hoch v du t

chu trch nhim xy dng chin lc quc gia v vay v tr n nc ngoi v tng

hp k hoch di hn v vay v tr n nc ngoi ca c nc (iu 6. Lut t chc

cc t chc tn dng quy nh Ngn hng Nh nc phi hp vi B Ti chnh xy

dng chin lc iu hnh n Chnh ph trong tng giai on m bo s ph hp

trong vic thc thi chnh sch tin t v chnh sch ti chnh, tham gia gii quyt cc

vn lin quan n n nc ngoi. Qu H tr Pht trin l c quan thuc Vn phng

Chnh ph v B Ti chnh nay tch ra thnh Ngn hng Pht trin Vit Nam) huy

ng vn v gii ngn cho cc d n pht trin u tin ca Chnh ph.

Ngay trong ni b B Ti chnh cng c s chng cho v chc nng, nhim v

qun l n Chnh ph. Chc nng qun l n phn tn trong 3 n v Ti chnh i

ngoi, Ngn sch nh nc v Kho bc nh nc.

Quyt nh s 151/2003/Q - BTC ca B trng Ti chnh quy nh nhim v

ca V Ngn sch N h nc, l "Ch tr phi hp cc n v thng nht qun l n

quc gia". Tuy nhin, quy nh ny li chng cho vi nhim v qun l n nc ngoi

m B trng B Ti chnh phn cng cho V Ti chnh i ngoi ti Quyt nh s

163/2003/Q - BTC, theo V Ti chnh i ngoi c chc nng gip B trng B

Ti chnh "thng nht qun l vay v tr n nc ngoi ca Chnh ph, vay v tr n

nc ngoi ca quc gia".

Quyt nh s 209/2003/Q - BTC, Kho bc nh nc c nhim v nghin cu

xy d tho n, chnh sch, ch v huy ng vn trong nc v ngoi nc

thng qua pht hnh cng tri, tri phiu Chnh ph, trong khi Quyt nh s

163/2003 quy nh mt trong nhng nhim v ca V Ti chnh i ngoi l

Nghin cu, xut v t chc thc hin cc phng n huy ng vn nc ngoi

trn th trng vn quc t ca Chnh ph.

Trong B cha phn cng trch nhim cho n v no thc hin nhim v quyt

ton ngun vin tr khng hon li ca B Ti chnh (hin ti B mi giao trch nhim


cho V Hp tc quc t lm u mi thu ht ngun vn ti tr cho B Ti chnh). V

vy gy kh khn cho cng tc quyt ton ngun ti tr cho B Ti chnh.

Trch nhim trong qun l ti chnh cc doanh nghip FDI ti B Ti chnh cn

nhiu bt cp, nht l trong khu thNm nh cp giy php, phn cng qun l cc lnh

vc cn chng cho... dn n kh khn trong cng tc qun l ti chnh nh nc cc

doanh nghip FDI trong khi cc doanh nghip ny cng nm trong i tng c vay

nc ngoi c s bo lnh ca Chnh ph.

Bn cnh , mt trong nhng vn quan trng trong qu trnh qun l n

Chnh ph l theo di v nh gi cc khon n cng b chia s gia cc c quan qun

l. B K hoch v u t theo di, thng k v nh gi v ODA, trong c n, V

Ti chnh i ngoi - B Ti chnh qun l n nc ngoi, Kho bc Nh nc qun l

n trong nc. Cc n v ny u c s dng h thng qun l n ring bit v th

cng nn cc bo co v n Chnh ph hin nay c xy dng hon ton do s phi

hp s liu ca cc n v mt cch th cng v khng m bo s chun xc. Cc ch

tiu theo di v nh gi n cng khng c tp hp thnh mt h thng nhm xc

nh mc nghim trng ca n cng nh lm c s xy dng chin lc di hn v

n Chnh ph.


2.2 Kim nh thc nghim mi quan h nh lng gia n

nc ngoi v tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam

2.2.1 Phng php lun p dng kho st mi quan h gia n nc

ngoi v tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam

ti i vo phn tch mi quan h nh lng gia n nc ngoi v tng

trng kinh t da trn phng php lun c Cunningham (1993) p dng ch ra

rng gnh nng vay n nc ngoi nh hng xu n nng sut vn v lao ng. M

hnh c p dng di y nhm tm ra nh hng ca gnh nng n, lao ng v

vn n tng trng kinh t theo dng ca hm sn xut tn c in. Khi thm bin n

nc ngoi phi tr nh Cunningham (1993) a ra th hm sn xut tn c in gi s

c dng nh sau:

GDP = 0 + 1 DS + 2 K + 3 L + (1)

Trong , GDP l tng sn phm quc ni, DS (Debt service) l n phi tr (bao

gm cc khon n o hn v tr li cc khon n khc), K l tng vn tch ly (hay

dung lng vn), L l lng lao ng c vic lm. Tt c cc bin ny u c biu

din di dng hm s logarith c s t nhin.

M hnh trn c s dng nhm mc ch tm hiu liu c hay khng mi quan

h trong di hn gia tng trng kinh t v ba u vo. Kh nng xy ra mi quan h

trong di hn c kim nh bng k thut ng lin kt. Gi nh n nc ngoi phi

tr hng nm c tc ng m ti tng trng kinh t.

M hnh ng tch hp v hiu chnh sai s (Cointegration and Error Correction

Modeling)

Hu ht cc chui s thi gian v m u khng phi l chui dng (non-

stationary). Nu mt chui khng dng, tt c cc kt qu hi quy thng thng s dn


ti hin tng tng quan gi (spurious regression problem). trnh hin tng

nu trn, trc tin chng ta phi phn tch thuc tnh ngu nhin ca cc chui s thi

gian. Nu cc chui ny c cng bc tch hp, khi c th tn ti mt mi quan h c

ngha trong di hn gia chng, hay ni cch khc l s kt hp nhng chui khng

dng to nn mt s kt hp bn vng da trn phng php ng tch hp.

Kim nh ng lin kt c th gm 2 bc:

+ Bc u tin, nhng chui s thi gian c kim nh tnh dng hay tnh

ngu (unit roots or non-stationary)

+ Bc th hai, kim nh ng tch hp xc nh c hay khng mi lin h

trong di hn.

Kim nh Augumented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) c s dng kim nh tnh

dng ca cc bin. Trong khi thc hin kim nh tnh dng ADF, mi bin c hi

quy theo mt hng s, mt tuyn thi gian bt nh, mt bin tr ph thuc v q bin

tr ca sai phn bc nht ca bin. M hnh kim nh ADF nh sau: (2)

Trong :

xt l bin cn kim nh ti thi im t

t l thi gian

l sai s ngu nhin phn phi chun vi gi tr trung bnh 0 v phng sai

khng i

Kim nh ADF cho tnh ngu ca chi thi gian vi gi thit khng H0: = 0 v

H1: < 0 ca m hnh (2) bn trn. di tr l tng cho kim nh ADF c la

chn da trn s gip ca tiu chun kim nh thng tin a dng (VD nh Tiu

chun Schwartz SIC)


kim nh cho s tn ti ca ng lin kt gia cc bin, ta s dng quy trnh

do Johansen (1988) v Johansen cng Juselius (1990) xut. Mc ch ca kim nh

ng lin kt l quyt nh xem liu mt nhm cc chui s khng dng (ngu) c

ng lin kt hay khng. Phng php ny s dng quy trnh kh nng ti a

(maximum likelihood procedure) c lng v quyt nh s hin din ca nhng

vector ng lin kt trong h thng vector t tng quan (VAR). Theo vector ca bin

th p, vector Zt = (Z1t,., Zpt) c sinh ra theo qu trnh vector t tng quan theo

th t k vi sai s Gaussian

Zt = A1Zt-1 + + AkZt-k + + t t = 1,,T (3)

Trong :

Zt l mt vector p 1 ca bin I(1)

A l cc tham s c tnh

1,, t l sai s thuc Np(0,)

l mt vector hng s

M hnh hiu chnh sai s di y c s dng phn bit gia tnh dng da

trn s kt hp tuyn tnh vi nhng cch kt hp khc.

Z = r1 Zt-1 + + rk Zt-k + Zt-k + + t t = 1,,T (4)

Thng tin v s vector ng lin kt c quyt nh bi hng ca . C th hn,

hng ca quyt nh c bao nhim cch kt hp tuyn tnh Zt l n nh. Trong

trng hp 0 < hng () = r < P, c th c tnh nh ( hay = ), trong c

v u l ma trn p r. Theo phng php Johansen, c hai ch s kim nh

quyt nh s vector ng lin kt l gi tr ti hn v gi tr ln nht.

Trong cch tip cn khng gii hn VAR, kim nh quan h nhn qu Granger

trong phn tch chui thi gian l khng th thc hin c v s tn ti ca xu hng

ngu trong bin. Kim nh F cng nh kim nh Wald trong vic quyt nh xem liu

mt vi tham s ca m hnh VAR bn vng c cng gi tr 0 hay khng khng c gi


tr cho qu trnh khng dng v tr thng k kim nh (test statistic) khng phn phi

chun. (theo Sims et al., 1990 and Toda and Phillips, 1993). Thc ra, bng chng ca

ng lin kt gia cc bin loi b kh nng khng c quan h nhn qu Granger, tuy

nhin n li khng ch ra iu g v hng tc ng gia cc bin. Quan h nhn qu

Granger theo thi gian c th c xc nh thng qua VECM (vector error correction

model) xut pht t cc vector ng tch hp trong di hn. Engle v Granger (1987)

khng nh rng nu c mt cn bng hay mi quan h ng lin kt gia cc bin

khng dng, chc chn phi tn ti mt s biu th hiu chnh sai s ca s liu. Engle

v Granger ch ra rng nu tn ti mt mi quan h ng lin kt th mt hi quy OLS

n gin cng c th cung cp nhng c lng ph hp cho cc h s cn bng di

hn. iu kin tin quyt cho s tn ti ca ng lin kt l tt c cc bin lin quan

phi lin kt cng bc. Khi , cc phn d t c lng di hn c th c s dng

nh h s hiu chnh sai s (error correction terms ECT) gii thch cc trng thi

ngn hn. Engel cng Granger (1987) v Toda cng Phillips (1993) minh chng

rng trong ng lin kt, s biu th VAR (p) tiu chun trong sai phn cp 1 l khng

r rng v xut biu din theo hiu chnh sai s vector nh sau: (5)

Trong :

Zt l mt vector n 1 vector ca mt bin

biu th sai phn

a l mt vector hng s n 1

p l di tr

d l mt ma trn h s n r

v l mt vector n 1 ct ca nhiu m E(vtvt) =

p order VAR c xy dng vi iu kin sai phn cp 1, chui I(0), thm vo

ton t hiu chnh sai s (Zt-1)


Tuy nhin, quy trnh trn yu cu tt c cc chui s lin quan phi thng nht

cng bc v s hin din ca mi quan h di hn gia cc bin lin kt trong h thng.

V th, trc khi tin hnh kim nh mi quan h nhn qu di hn hay khng c quan

h nhn qu bng VECM, nht nh phi thit lp c bc lin kt v nhn ra mi

quan h di hn c th tn ti gia cc bin lin kt trong h thng.

Bi nghin cu ny s dng kim nh tnh ngu (unit root test) quyt nh s

bc tch hp ca cc chui s; theo phng php ca Johansen (1988) v Johansen

cng Juselius (1990) trong kim nh s ng lin kt gia cc bin; thm ton t hiu

chnh sai s vo m hnh VECM kim nh cc tc ng ngn hn v di hn. M

hnh VECM bn cnh vic ch ra hng ca quan h nhn qu ng thi cng phn

bit c quan h nhn qu Granger trong ngn hn v di hn.

2.2.2 M t s liu

M hnh phn tch s dng s liu theo chui thi gian t nm 1986 n 2009.

Tp hp s liu v tng sn phm quc ni (GDP) v lc lng lao ng c vic lm

(employed labour force L) c ly t c s s liu thng k ca Ngn hng pht

trin chu ADB (Ring nm 2009, ly t bo co Country Report ca EIU nm

2010). V t l s dng lc lng lao ng ca quc gia c ngha quan trng trong

qu trnh sn xut nn trong m hnh ny, chng ti s dng lc lng lao ng c vic

lm thay cho lc lng lao ng ca quc gia.

S liu n nc ngoi phi tr hng nm bng cc khon n o hn trong nm

vi cc khon li ngn hn v di hn phi tr trong k. N nc ngoi gm 3 thnh

phn: n nc ngoi khu vc cng, n nc ngoi c chnh ph bo lnh v n nc

ngoi t nhn khng c bo lnh. N nc ngoi di hn l cc khon n c thi hn

tr n trn mt nm v c thanh ton cho ngi khng c tr ti Vit Nam bng

ngoi t. S liu n nc ngoi phi tr hng nm, tng d n nc ngoi c ly t

c s s liu thng k ca Ngn hng pht trin chu ADB, ring s liu hai nm

2008 v 2009 c ly t bo co Country Report ca EIU nm 2010.


S liu tng vn tch ly (capital stock - K) nm 1986 c ly t bi nghin cu

Tc ng ca i mi i vi tng sn phm quc ni ca Vit Nam do 2 tc gi

L Thanh Nghip v L Hu Qu vit vi gi nh t l vn/ tng sn phm quc ni

l 1,1. S liu t nm 1987-2009 c chng ti xy dng da trn m hnh sau:

Kt = Kt-1 x (1- d) + It-1 (6)

Trong , Kt l tng vn tch ly nm t; Kt-1 l tng vn tch ly nm (t-1); d l t

l khu hao; It-1 l tng vn u t ca ton x hi trong nm (t-1)

S liu tng u t hng nm c ly t c s s liu thng k ca Tng cc

thng k. Mc khu hao y c gi thit vo khong 5% mt nm.

Trong iu kin s liu thng k ca Vit Nam l khng y , vic c tnh

lng vn tch ly l vic v cng kh khn. Trong qu trnh xy dng b s liu v

chy th m hnh, chng ti cng thay i t l vn-sn phm c s dng c

tnh lng d tr vn cho nm 1986. Tuy nhin, vic thay i ny khng nh hng

nhiu n kt qu c lng m hnh.7

Cc s liu lin quan n bin s trong m hnh u c th hin di dng hm

s logarit c s t nhin v gi c s nm 1994. S liu n nc ngoi phi tr hng

nm theo n v USD ti mc gi hin hnh c quy v gi c s VND 1994 theo 2

bc: (a) tnh t l DS trn GDP danh ngha (tnh theo USD theo gi hin hnh), ta

c t l n phi tr trn GDP, (b) ly t l ny nhn vi GDP theo gi khng i nm

1994.

Cui cng, ta c c bng s liu dng c lng m hnh (1) nh trong ph

lc 3.

7 S liu c th xem ph lc 2


2.2.3 Kt qu thc nghim

2.2.3.1 Kim nh tnh dng ca bin: (Unit root test)

Trc khi tin hnh phn tch ng tch hp a bin ngu, trc tin chng ta s

kim nh tnh dng ca cc bin. xc nh bc ng tch hp, kim nh ADF unit

root c s dng cho cc bin v sai phn cp 1 ca chng da trn vic c lng

biu thc (2). Biu thc 2 gi nh rng c mt phn mt phng b chn v c xu

hng thi gian tuyn tnh.

Bng 8: Kt qu kim nh tnh dng ca bin (Unit Root Test)

Bin Level Bc tch hp Sai phn cp 1 Bc tch hp

LnY -3.051 I(1) -3.529** I(0)

LnK -2.938 I(1) -3.328** I(0)

LnL -1.415 I(

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