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Youth Aspirations and Sense of Place in a Changing Rural Economy: The

Coos Youth Study

Presented by:Nena Stracuzzi, Ph.D.

Carsey InstituteUniversity of New Hampshire

Durham, New Hampshire

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Prepared for:Supporting Rural Schools &

Communities Research Conference November 5 - 6, 2009

Coos Youth StudyLongitudinal panel study tracking two cohorts of youth in

northern New Hampshire

• Overview– Background

• Context for this study– Purpose of the Study– Methods – Research Question for Today’s

Discussion– Findings– Implications

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Context • 1990 – 2004, New Hampshire’s young adult population

ages 25-34 declined by 27%, exceeding that of 46 other states in the country

• Coos County, NH (already in serious economic decline as a result of manufacturing loss) particularly hard hit, losing 38% of their young adults

• The loss of youth from rural areas further compromises the well-being of rural NH communities, families, and individuals

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Population loss widespread in northern and central

Coos County

Study Goals• Our aims, broadly defined, are to gain a greater

understanding of:

– the obstacles rural youth face while transitioning to adulthood;

– the conditions under which rural youth achieve the goals they set for themselves (or not); and

– the social contexts in which rural youth make their decisions to remain in their communities of origin or to seek opportunities elsewhere.

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We are exploring youths’. . .• aspirations for future academic and economic

success;• beliefs about economic opportunities within local

communities;• attachment to the North Country region;• exposure to the broader world through

technology; and• satisfaction with family, peer, school, and

community relationships.

Three Dimensions of Well-being

• Integration– sense of belonging within a given social

context (family, school, friends, community).• Aspiration

– towards higher education, starting families, becoming financially independent, becoming engaged in their communities

• Transition– Successfully transitioning into adulthood

Methods• Panel study tracking . . .

– Two cohorts (7th/11th grade in 2008)– 5 school districts

• 7 high schools; 9 middle schools

• Paper & Pencil Surveys – 30-40 minutes to complete

• Questions re: relationships with friends and family, feelings about school and community, educational aspirations, beliefs & behaviors

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Wave I • Completed Feb 2008

– 78% response rate (656)• 7th Graders (n = 316)• 11th Graders (n = 341)

– 60 in-depth interviews with 30 7th grade students and their mothers.

Wave II• Completed June 2009

– (N = 678)– BUT, many are new students;

76 still missing from first wave– Missing students primarily

seniors – Working on finding them

• Email, Phone, Facebook

Facebook147 Friends

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Selected Findings from Wave I

Examination of Youth’s Educational Aspirations Across Family, Peer, School, and

Community Domains

DemographicsN = 656

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Coos County Students Have High Aspirations

DEPENDENT VARIABLES 1) Likelihood of Graduating From College 2) Likelihood of Getting a Full Time Job >High School

Four Domains: Family, Peer, School & Community

Family• Independent Variables

– Close to mom (α = .89)• (feel close, enjoy spending time, comfortable talking with)

– Close to dad (α = .93)• (feel close, enjoy spending time, comfortable talking with)

– Help with future plans by mom (α = .91)• (educational, career, family)

– Help with future plans by dad (α = .76)• (educational, career, family)

– Parents messages re:• Importance of going to college• Importance of having successful careers• Importance of living close to them

Independent Variablesfemale (+)parents’ messages

- college important (+)mom’s help w/future plans (+)

Independent Variables

age (-)married (-)parents’

education (-)parents’

messages - college

important (-) - live close

(+)

Likelihood Graduating

College

Likelihood Full Time Job > HS

Peers• Independent Variables

– Friends planning to go to college– Friends doing well in school– Friends plan to get a job out of high school– Friends encourage you to do your best in school– Popularity (α = .88)

• (kids think I’m fun, lots of friends, invitations, texts, emails, et cetera)

– Importance of popularity (α = .83)• (important to be popular, have lots of friends, others think

you’re fun, et cetera)

Independent Variablesfemale (+)friends . . .

- plan go to college (+) - plan to get a job > HS (-)

Independent Variables age (-) married (-)

parents’ education (-) friends . . .

- plan to go to college (-)

- plan to get a job > HS(+) popularity (+)

Likelihood Graduating

College

Likelihood Full Time Job > HS

School• Independent Variables

– Grades– Reasons for Coming to School

• Enjoy academic subjects• Have to• Need for job or diploma• Need for college

– Sense of Belonging (α = .83)• (feel like belong at school, students accept me, teachers

willing to help with personal problems, teachers expect best, et cetera)

– School Activities (α = .71)• (student government, band, honor society, academic clubs,

et cetera)

Independent Variables

grades (+) reason for attending

school -need for college(+)

school activities (+)

Independent Variablesage (-)married (-)parents’ education (-)grades (-)reason for attending school

- have to (+)- need for college (-)- need for diploma or job (+)

school activities (-)

Likelihood Graduating

College

Likelihood Full Time Job > HS

Community• Independent Variables

– Mother raised in community– Father raised in community– Grandparent raised in community– Positive feelings about the community (α = .89)

• (people: can be trusted, help their neighbors, are caring and friendly; this is a close-knit community, my community is safe, et cetera)

– Negative feelings about the community (α = .87)• (people in this community: like to gossip, are rude, judge others unfairly;

there is nothing to do, it is boring, isolated from other communities, et cetera)– Community activities (α = .70)

• (4-H, church groups, community service clubs, hobby clubs, sports, et cetera)

Independent Variables female (+) community activities

(+) positive community

feelings (+)

Independent Variables age (-) married (-) parents’ education (-) positive community feelings (-)

Likelihood Graduating

College

Likelihood Full time Job > HS

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FINAL MODELS: Predictors of Educational Aspirations Among Family, Peer, School

and Community Domains

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES College Job

FAMILY

Mom helps with plans .041 -.038

Parents’ Messages

- importance of college .358*** -.080

- living close by -.048 .136**

FRIENDS

Friends planning to go to college .099* -.107*

Friends planning on getting job after high school .009 .178***

Popularity .038 .087+

SCHOOL

Grades .160*** -.100*

Reasons for

- have to -.030 .015

- need for job/diploma .009 -.129*

- need for college .347*** -.129***

Belonging -.064 .086

School activity participation .131** -.148**

COMMUNITY

Community activity participation .033 .041

Positive community feelings -.027 -.009

***p <.001 **p<.01 *p<.05 +p<.07

FINAL MODELSPredictors of Aspirations (college/job); Standardized Regression Coefficients

IMPLICATIONS

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