Hermann Ackermann Hertie Institut für Klinische Hirnforschung der Universität Tübingen
Young Expert‘s Workshop. Berlin: Hertie School of Governance.
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Transcript of Young Expert‘s Workshop. Berlin: Hertie School of Governance.
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Young Expert‘s Workshop
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Berlin: Hertie School of Governance
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Rostock: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Berlin: Hertie School of Governance
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Migration Birth
Death
NGO?
Population Structure
Demography
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Fertility Behavior in Russia and Germany
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Relevance
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Relevance
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Fall of Berlin Wall
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mai
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Mai
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec Jan
1989 1990 1991
Legal Unification
Relevance
“Jetzt wächst zusammen,was zusammengehört.”
Willy Brandt, 10. Nov. 1989
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• Constitutional „Right to Work“
• „Labor Market Integration“ of Women
• Secularization
Relevance
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Fertility Trends
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Fertility Trends
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1980 1990 2000 2010
Total Fertility Rate
West Germany
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Fertility Trends
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1980 1990 2000 2010
Total Fertility Rate
West Germany
East Germany
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Fertility Trends
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1980 1990 2000 2010
Total Fertility Rate
West Germany
East Germany
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Monthly Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93
+ 9 months
Fall of Berlin Wall
East Germany
West Germany
Fertility Trends
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Monthly Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93
+ 9 months
Fall of Berlin Wall
East Germany
West Germany
Fertility Trends
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Fertility Trends
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1980 1990 2000 2010
Total Fertility Rate
West Germany
East Germany
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Fertility Trends
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1980 1990 2000 2010
Total Fertility Rate
Russia
West Germany
East Germany
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Fertility Trends
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1980 1990 2000 2010
Total Fertility Rate
Russia
West Germany
East Germany
Replacement Level
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Fertility Trends
Life Expectancy Men
Russia
East Germany
West Germany
Life Expectancy Women
Russia
East Germany
West Germany
Source: HMD
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Fertility Trends
Our population is declining …
we need to raise the birth rate!
(Putin 2006)
The challenge of family policies is
to facilitate family formation.
(Deutscher Bundestag, 2006)
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Fertility Trends
• Parental leave benefit reform
• Expansion of public day care
• Cash benefits for higher order
births
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Fertility Trends
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1980 1990 2000 2010
Total Fertility Rate
Russia
East Germany
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Fertility Trends
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1980 1990 2000 2010
Total Fertility Rate
Russia
West Germany
East Germany
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Data
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Data: Generations and Gender Survey
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Name of Survey: Generations and Gender Survey
Interview mode: Face-to-face
Sample: Ages 18-79
Sample Size: 10,000 per country
Design: Panel Study (in several countries, incl. Russia)
Data: Generations and Gender Survey
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Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 32005 2007 2011
Name of Survey: Generations and Gender Survey
Interview mode: Face-to-face
Sample: Ages 18-79
Sample Size: 10,000 per country
Design: Panel Study (in several countries, incl. Russia)
Data: Generations and Gender Survey
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Family Structures
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A Child Needs a Home with Mother and Father to Grow Up Happily
Source: GGS, weigthed estimates
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
West Germany East Germany Russia
Agree
Undecided
Disagree
Family Structures
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WestGermany
East Germany
Russian Federation
Married 80% 69% 67%
Divorced 8% 8% 17%
Single 12% 22% 10%
Widowed 1% 1% 6%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Marital Status of Mothers
Note: The sample includes women who live with a child age 16 or younger in same household.Source: GGS – first wave
Family Structures
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WestGermany
East Germany
Russian Federation
Full-time 22% 43% 64%
Part-time 35% 23% 3%
Unemployed 5% 23% 7%
Other 37% 12% 26%
Total 100% 100% 100%
Employment Status of Mothers
Note: The sample includes women who live with a child age 16 or younger in same household.Source: GGS, first wave
Family Structures
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Fertility Dynamics by Parity
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Share of Childless Women by Age(Estimates from Kaplan-Meier Survival Function)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
Cohort 1950-59
Cohort 1960-69
Cohort 1970-79 East Germany
First Birth
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Share of Childless Women by Age(Estimates from Kaplan-Meier Survival Function)
Cohort 1950-59
Cohort 1960-69
Cohort 1970-79
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
Age of Woman
Russia
First Birth
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Cohort 1970-79
Share of Childless Women by Age(Estimates from Kaplan-Meier Survival Function)
West Germany
East Germany
Russia
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44
Age of Woman
Source: GGS – First waveBirth Survey 2006
First Birth
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Second Birth
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Cohort 1960-69
Share of Two-Child Mothers by Age of First Child(Estimates from Kaplan-Meier Survival Function)
Source: GGS – First waveBirth Survey 2006
Russia
East Gemany
West Germany
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
0 2 4 6 8 10
Age of First Child
Second Birth
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Realization of Second Birth Intentions
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2005
Realization of Birth Intentions
Do you intend to have a second child within the next 2 years?
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2005 2007
Do you intend to have a second child within the next 2 years?
Realization of Birth Intentions
Second child realized?
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Intention to Have Second Child Within Next 3 Years, Cohorts 1970-85
Source: GGS, weigthed estimates
No
Do not know
Yes
Has 2 children
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
West Germany East Germany Russia
Realization of Birth Intentions
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Intention to Have Second Child Within Next 3 Years, Cohorts 1970-85
Source: GGS, weigthed estimates
No
Do not know
Yes
Has 2 children
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
West Germany East Germany Russia
Realization of Birth Intentions
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2005 2007
Do you intend to have a second child within the next 2 years?
Realization of Birth Intentions
Second child realized?
Economic worries?
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Financial Situation (Household Makes Ends Meet)
Source: GGS, weigthed estimates
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
West Germany East Germany Russia
Easy
Somewhat difficult
Difficult
Realization of Birth Intentions
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Realization of Birth Intentions
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?2005 2007
Do you intend to have a second child within the next 2 years?
Realization of Birth Intentions
Second child realized?
Economic worries?
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Data: The German Family Panel
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2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Name of Survey: German Family Panel
Interview Mode: Face-to-face, CAPI & CASI
Sample: Birth cohorts 1971-73, 1981-83, 1991-93
Sample Size: 13,000 (anchor) respondents
Type of Survey: Multi-Actor Panel Study
Data: German Family Panel
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Multi-Actor
Anchor
Data: German Family Panel
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Multi-Actor
Anchor Partner
Data: German Family Panel
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Multi-Actor
Anchor Partner
Children of Anchor
Father Mother
Data: German Family Panel
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Multi-Actor
Anchor Partner
Children of Anchor
Father Mother
Data: German Family Panel
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
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Many thanks for your attention!
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Fertility Desires
ID YEAR IDEALAnchor
#1 2009 0
#1 2011 0
#1 2012 0
#1 2013 2
#1 2014 2
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Fertility Desires
ID YEAR IDEALAnchor
IDEALPartner
#1 2009 0 no partner
#1 2011 0 no partner
#1 2012 0 2
#1 2013 2 2
#1 2014 2 2
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Source: GGS, weigthed estimates
Realization of Birth Intentions
Note: Unlike Table 1, this figure contains all respondents, irrespective of whether they were partnered in wave1.Positive indicates that the respondent had positive intentions to have a(nother) child within the next three years in wave 1. Uncertain & positive long term indicates that the respondent was uncertain to have a(nother) child within the next three years. but in general plans to have a(nother ) child. Negative & positive long term indicates that the respondent did not want a(nother) child within the next three years in wave 1. but in general plans to have a(nother ) child. Negative & negative long term indicates that the respondent did not want a(nother) child within the next three years and generally does not want any (further) children.Source: Russian GGS 1 and 2 waves; own calculations.
Realization of Birth Intentions between 2005 and 2007, Russia