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Welcome Note
Thursday14th June, 2018
Stock Of The Day: (F & O)
Forecast and Analysis
CONTENTS
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Title Page No.
'30,000 feet view’: The big picture of Dalal Street 04-07
Stock Of The Day: (F & O) 08-09
Equity Derivatives 10
Daily Pivot Table (Equities) 11
Forecast and Analysis 12-14
Daily Pivot Table (Commodities) 15
Disclaimer 16
'30,000 feet view’:
The big picture of Dalal Street
'30,000 feet view’:
The big picture of Dalal Street
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'30,000 feet view’: newsletter provides insights and themes for Indian equity markets. We also try and cover international themes for the day. This newsletter is quite popular with traders as it covers the most preferred trading strategy for Sensex/Nifty for the day.
In Chart of the day section, we recommend a stock which is likely to move significantly in the short term, clearly defining the supports, the resistances and bias for the stock.
In a nutshell, '30,000 feet view’: covers themes and insights for the day.
‘30,000 feet view’: The big picture of Dalal Street
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Nifty Outlook
Intraday
Medium Term
Long Term
Key Levels to Watch
Nifty Support
Nifty Resistance
Pivot Level
Nifty
Outlook for the Day
INDICES
Nifty
Bank Nifty
Nifty Auto Index
Nifty FMCG Index
Nifty Infra Index
Nifty IT Index
Nifty Media Index
Nifty Midcap Index
Nifty Metal Index
Nifty Pharma Index
Nifty Reality Index
Nifty Smallcap Index
Sensex
SGX Nifty
‘30,000 feet view’: The big picture of Dalal Street
Dear Valued Investor,
Good Morning & Welcome to Thursday’s trading action at Dalal Street, dated 14th June
2018.
The numbers are in and the verdict is out!
The numbers: The Federal Open Market Committee lifted interest rates for the second
time this year and the seventh time since beginning its monetary-policy normalization
imitative in December of 2015. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee lifted
the federal-funds rate to a range between 1.75% to 2%, from 1.5% to 1.75%.
The Fed has signaled that it will continue to gradually increase rates in response to higher
inflation and strength in the U.S. labor market. Officials have also set in motion a plan to
reduce the Fed’s bond holdings, as the central bank moves away from accommodative
policies employed during and after the 2008 financial crisis.
The Verdict: The Federal Reserve has signaled that the U.S economic growth outlook
warranted a more aggressive rate-hike path than investors had anticipated.
Amidst this backdrop, Wall Street slumped, relinquishing early morning gains to close near
session lows. The Dow Jones index fell 120 points to close at 25201, and finished a
turbulent session sharply lower.
The U.S Dollar inched up. Interest rates are going up. Higher interest rates can make
riskier assets such as stocks less attractive. Gold traded firm above $1,300 after Fed
decision..
At the time of writing SGX Nifty was seen trading nervously, down 41 points at
10803, indicating a gap-down start for our stock markets.
Focus now shifts away to the two central bank meetings slated in next two days.
1. The European Central Bank policy makers are expected to announce the timing of a
reduction of its crisis-era asset-purchase initiative on Thursday.
2. On June 15, Bank of Japan holds monetary policy meeting.
Amongst key domestic macro watch:
• On June 14th, the Indian government will announce inflation data of WPI for May
2018.
What Technical Tells Us on Nifty: Nifty edged higher in yesterday’s trading session,
making decent headway as the benchmark rose 0.13% to settle at 10,856.70.
However, the market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, turned negative
from positive in late trade. The BSE Mid-Cap index lost some gains, down -0.43%. The BSE
Small-Cap Index too fell by -0.34%. Both the indices underperformed Sensex in
yesterday’s trade.
Technically speaking, Nifty is likely to consolidate with downside well supported at 10,761-
10,777 zone and then at 10,585. Buying on any corrective declines should be the preferred
trading strategy. Immediate upside targets on Nifty now seen at 10911 and then at 11000
mark.
The technical landscape will worsen only if Nifty slips below the 10327 mark as that would
open the door to massive technical selling, possibly quickly to the 10000-10050 zone.
The price action for Nifty is suggesting that we are likely to see a 10,550-11100 range in
near term with positive bias. Hence, establishing long positions with strict stop below
10501 should be the preferred trading strategy for the day.
10856 0.13%
26643 0.13%
11246 -0.06%
28916 -0.50%
3264 -0.70%
14034 1.26%
3211 -0.75%
5039 -0.30%
3613 -0.44%
8949 0.88%
292 -0.05%
7710 -0.20%
35739 0.13%
10845 0.00%
Volatile session likely.
Neutral (10801-10891)
Positive (10301-11001)
Neutral (11301)
10761 & 10585
10875 & 11001
10327
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Technical Strategy
‘30,000 feet view’: The big picture of Dalal Street
Outlook for Thursday: BUY ON EARLY MORNING SHARP
DECLINES.
Judging by early trends at SGX Nifty, it appears that it will be a relatively volatile day for our
stock markets. Investors’ would prefer to stay sidelines and be reluctant to make any big
moves ahead of two central bank meetings.
Now, before we get into detail; let’s look at major instruments.
7 AM GLOBAL UPDATE: DOW (-120, 25201) NASDAQ (-8, 7695) SGX NIFTY (-41,
10803) OIL (+0.18, $66.64) GOLD (+2, $1303)
Our call of the day says the benchmark Nifty may consolidate after a lower open. Any
sharp corrective declines should be well supported at 10,761-10,777 zone. Aggressive
buying recommended only above Nifty 10,895 mark.
Commodity Cues:
• In commodities, Crude -oil prices climbed on Wednesday, to settle at their highest in
almost two weeks ($66.65 a barrel), after a U.S. government report revealed a
bigger-than-expected decline in domestic crude supplies, which was the largest
one-week drop since the end of March.
All anxious eyes now turn to OPEC’s next meeting on June 22 in Vienna.
In India, Asia's No.2 buyer, May fuel demand rose by 3.4% compared with the same
month last year, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the
oil ministry showed on Monday.
Currencies & Bonds:
• In the fixed income, the Treasury yield curve was seen flattening as the yield on 10-
year U.S. Treasury notes inched slightly to 2.98 percent following the release of the
statement
• There was a knee-jerk movement in the dollar; as the U.S. dollar spiked after the
Fed rate hike, but slipped back as focus turned to ECB
• Euro was seen drifting in Wednesday’s trade as attention shifts on the European
Central Bank that is likely to provide guidance this week on how it plans to wind
down its quantitative easing program.
• In Wednesday’s trade, the USD/INR gained 16 paise amidst value buying. Bias
continues to be positive.
Macro Watch:
• Today (June 14th), the Indian government will announce inflation data of WPI for
May 2018.
• Rain seen progressing in parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka - IMD
• Today (June 14), the ECB Governing Council meeting will be followed by interest
rate announcement.
• On June 15, Bank of Japan holds monetary policy meeting.
Stocks To Watch:
• Our chart of the day suggests establishing long positions on any sharp corrective
declines in stocks like TECH MAHINDRA, BHARAT FINANCIAL and JSW
STEEL.
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES (RIL)
Action
Target
Support
Resistance
Holding Period
1002.5
BUY ON DIPS.
837
965/901
1011/1045
21 Days.
Technically, Reliance Industries (RIL) is signaling
a major breakout on the monthly charts from a
higher consolidation zone.
The stock is in bullish position where it wants to
ascent above its all-time-high at 1011 zone. The
sequence of higher high/low is intact on weekly
and monthly charts time frame.
The momentum oscillators are likely to shift on
buy side only on any move above 805 zone and
such up move needs to be backed by increases in
volumes.
Key support to watch in near term is at 965 zone.
Medium term supports seen at 901 zone.
Establish long positions on corrective declines
between 975-985 zone, targeting 1011 and then
aggressive targets located at 1045-1051 zone.
Stop 939.
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‘30,000 feet
view’: The big
picture of
Dalal Street
‘30,000 feet view’: The big picture of Dalal Street
• Bullish stocks: TECH MAHINDRA, RELIANCE (RIL), BHARAT FINANCIAL,
INDUSIND BANK, CAPITAL FIRST, JUBILANT FOODS, MARICO, MCDOWELL, JSW
STEEL, HINDALCO, M&M, MARUTI.
• Bearish stocks: EICHER MOTORS, LIC HOUSING FINANCE, WOCKHARDT,
MANAPURAM, MOTHERSON SUMI, INDIA CEMENTS, STAR, SUZLON, BANK OF
INDIA, WIPRO.
• Show Me the Money: Sell MOTHERSON SUMI (CMP 310.40):The
interweek/intermonth bias is on the downside as long as 321 resistance is held.
Interweek Strategy: Establish short positions between 312-315 zone, targeting 305
and then aggressive targets located at 289-292 zone. Stop above 321.45.
• JSW Steel crude steel production 1.4mn tons in May, up 3% YoY and flat rolled
products output in May 956000 tons, up 2% YoY .
• Torrent and Aurobindo Pharma get final USFDA approval for gViagra - USFDA has
approved Sildenafil Citrate generics of Torrent Pharma and Aurobindo Pharma.
• Government aims to raise about Rs60bn via tranche of Bharat 22 ETF, Bharat 22 ETF
tranche to open June 19-22.
• Cabinet clears HDFC Bank's proposal to raise Rs 24,000 crore via FDI.
• L&T wins contract worth Rs13.87bn.
• Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: BALRAMCHIN, DHFL, JET
AIRWAYS, JUST DIAL.
Bulls Vs. Bears: Time to Pick a Side!!
For the day, on improving technical conditions buying on any sharp corrective weakness
should be the preferred trading strategy.
Preferred trade on Nifty: Nifty (10857): Buy between 10765-10777 zone, targeting
10901 and then at 10951-11000 zone with stop at 10571.
Preferred trade on Bank Nifty: Bank Nifty (26607): Buy between 26500-26550 zone,
targeting 26750 zone and then at 27101-27251 zone with strict stop at 26101.
Daily Chart of Nifty:
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Comfort stock of the day
Stock Of The Day: (F & O)
When we want to see what's happening far off, we will reach for the binoculars. The binocular helps us to steer out of danger and also accurately spots our targets.
When it comes to trading / investing, that's exactly how Stock Of The Day: (F & O) introduces to the momentum stocks from the list of Future & Option segment, defining their support and resistance levels, and attempts to forecast their movement with a short /medium term perspective.
Stock Of The Day: (F & O)
R2STOCKS LTP S1 S2 R1 TRADING STRATEGYBIAS
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Stock Of The Day: (F & O)
The stock is signaling a major rebound from a lower consolidation on daily charts. Intermonth Strategy: Establish long positions at CMP, targeting 2947 and then aggressive targets located at 3100-3172 zone. Stop above 2801.
The stock is signaling a major breakout from a higher consolidation on daily charts. Interweek Strategy: Establish long positions between 1171-1175 zone, targeting 1201 and then aggressive targets located at 1217-1221 zone. Stop above 1161.
JSW STEEL ended on a strong note in yesterday's trading session, up 0.48%. A major breakout play on cards. Key interweek support seen at 331. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 337.50-340 zone, targeting 351 and then at 361-365 zone. Stop below 331.
Momentum oscillators continue to be in buy mode. Confirmation of strength above 722.50. Interweek Strategy: Buy between 705-709 zone, targeting 722.50 and then more aggressive targets located at 741-745 zone. Stop below 697.50.
The interweek/intermonth bias is on the downside as long as 321 resistance is held. Interweek Strategy: Establish short positions between 312-315 zone, targeting 305 and then aggressive targets located at 289-292 zone. Stop above 321.45.
JSW STEEL: This Stock is Set to Blast Off.
BAJAJ AUTO
BHARAT FINANCIAL
JSW STEEL
TECH MAHINDRA
MOTHERSON SUMI
2907.95 2847 2801 2947 3172 Positive
1179.2 1165 1145 1201 1221 Positive
343 331 321.5 351 365 Positive
713.8 699 685 722.5 745 Positive
310.4 305 289 317.5 321 Negative
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EQUITY DERIVATIVESLooking into the future from present.
Changes in Open Interest (OI) in yesterday’s trade.
Nifty Spot
Bank Nifty Future
VIX
Premium
Nifty Future OI
Bank Nifty Spot OI
BSE Cash Vol. (Rs. in Cr)
NSE Cash Vol.(Rs. in Cr)
NSE Derivative Vol. (Rs. in Cr)
Index Future Volumes
Stock Future Volumes
Index Option Volumes
Stock Option Volumes
Total
Cash Volumes (INR in Cr.)
YesterdayDay Before Yesterday
Derivatives Vol.(INR in Cr.)
No of contracts
Turnover (Rs. In cr.)
Major Changes in Nifty Options (OI)
Thursday14th June, 2018
Market Summary:
The benchmark Nifty edged higher in yesterday’s trading session, making decent headway
as investors looked ahead to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision. Nifty
rose 0.13% to settle at 10,856.70. The BSE Mid-Cap index lost some gains, down -0.43%. The BSE Small-Cap Index too fell by -
0.34%. Both the indices underperformed Sensex in yesterday’s trade. The market breadth,
indicating the overall health of the market, turned negative from positive in late trade.
Amongst the sectoral indices, outperforming the Sensex/Nifty were BSE IT Index (up
1.29%), BSE TECK (up 0.94%), BSE Healthcare (up 0.58%), BSE Consumer Durable (up
0.57%).
Amongst the sectoral indices, underperforming the Sensex/Nifty were BSE India Infra Index
(down -0.71%), BSE Capital Goods (down -0.66%), BSE FMCG (down -0.42%).
Amongst stock specific action, positive bias was seen in stocks like Dr. Reddy (up 3.00%),
Cipla (up 2.65%), TCS (up 2.42%).
Among stocks drifting down were: Tata Steel (down -2.14%), Adani Ports (down -1.56%),
Zeel (down -1.43%).
Going forward, in Thursday’s session, Nifty may most likely trade with positive bias with
targets at 11,000 mark. The make or break support levels on Nifty are at 10,777 mark.
Nifty’ must watch support levels would be 10,700 mark as maximum Put OI contracts were
seen at strike price 10,700 followed by 10,600 strike price. Maximum put writing was seen at
the strike prices of 10,700. Put unwinding was seen at the strike price of 11,000.
Nifty’s key hurdle remains at psychological 11000 mark with maximum OI at 11000 strike
price; followed by 10,900 call option. Call writing was seen at the strike price of 11,100,
followed by 10,900 strike price. Call unwinding was seen at the strike price of 10,800.
As per Wednesday’s provisional data available on the NSE, Foreign institutional investors
(FIIs) sold shares for 6th straight day worth Rs. -70.77 crore, while domestic institutional
investors bought shares worth Rs 486.78 crore in the Indian equity market.
Highest OI Nifty: Calls 11000: 39.51 L - Puts 10700: 51.88 L
Highest OI Bank Nifty: Calls 27000: 10.00 L - Puts 26000: 8.37 L
Change in Stock Open Interest (OI) in previous day’s trade.
Long Buildup: SBIN, ICICI BANK, JSW STEEL, INFY, KSCL.
Short Buildup: IDEA, NCC, ICICIPRU, NALCO, VOLTAS.
Short Covering: INDIACEM, BPCL, IRB, BANK OF INDIA.
Long Unwinding: MARICO, BAJFIN, UBL, TORNTPOWER.
Stocks banned in F&O segment for today: BALRAMCHIN, DHFL, JET AIRWAYS, JUST
DIAL.
New In Ban: NIL.
Out of Ban: NIL.
Future Call: Buy JSW STEEL June Futures between 340-342.80
zone. Targets: 351 and then at 363. Stop: 333 (JSW STEEL June
Futures CMP 343.15). Analyst’s Remark: Momentum Play.
Option Call: Sell INFOSYS June PE strike price 1240 at CMP 17.65.
Maximum Profit: Rs. 10800. Loss: Unlimited. Stop: Exit Put Option if
Infosys closes below 1211. (INFOSYS TECH June Futures CMP
1246.65).
10856.70 (+0.13%)
26642.80 (+0.13%)
12.635 (-0.75%)
-10 vs +04
2.47 crores (+4.22%)
28.74 lakhs (+7.66'%)
3519.59 2837.61
29082.3 27770.94
693000.92 489426
157921 14691.92
792152 52333.21
5755680 578868.68
655277 47107.11
7361030 693000.92
Calls in lakhs (%Change)
10900 30.7 (+3%)
11000 39.51 (-0.14%)
10800 28.19 (-5%)
Puts in lakhs (% Change)
10800 37.26 (-9%)
10700 51.88 (+13%)
10600 48.98 (-3%)
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DAILY PIVOT TABLE
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Instrument Close S1 S2 R1 R2 200 Day SMA Reversal Point Trend
All level indicated above are based on cash market prices.
Pivot Point
PP : Pivot Point : This is trigger point for weekly buy/sell based on the price range of the previous week.R1 : Resistance one : 1st Resistance over PP. R2 : Resistance two : 2nd Resistance over R1.S1 : Support one : 1st support after PP. S2 : Support Two : 2nd support after S1.
As per the tool, the trader should take BUY position just above PP and keep the stop loss of PP and the first target would be R1.If R1 is crossed then R2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at R1.
Similarly if price goes below PP the trader should SELL and keep the PP as Stop loss and the first target would be S1.
If S1 is crossed then S2 becomes the next target with the stop loss at S1.This is a trading tool. The key to use of this tool is the use of STOP LOSS.
Thursday14th June, 2018
NIFTY 10856.7 10835.15 10813.6 10885.75 10914.8 10864.2 10389.77 UP
BANKNIFTY 26642.8 26572.18 26501.57 26739.43 26836.07 26668.82 25299.37 UP
NIFTYMID50 5038.5 5014.83 4991.17 5080.28 5122.07 5056.62 5130.56 DOWN
ACC 1330.95 1311.87 1292.78 1349.72 1368.48 1330.63 1638.19 DOWN
ADANIENT 129.15 127.42 125.68 131.77 134.38 130.03 151.98 DOWN
ADANIPORTS 382.85 378.97 375.08 389.37 395.88 385.48 398.8 DOWN
AJANTPHARM 1035.4 1020.28 1005.17 1050.23 1065.07 1035.12 1289.82 DOWN
ALBK 46.6 45.3 44 48.05 49.5 46.75 61.94 DOWN
AMARAJABAT 774.2 767.85 761.5 782.7 791.2 776.35 791.23 DOWN
ANDHRABANK 37.1 36.6 36.1 37.8 38.5 37.3 50.89 DOWN
APOLLOTYRE 275.1 273.23 271.37 277.98 280.87 276.12 262.78 UP
ARVIND 408.65 404.63 400.62 413.03 417.42 409.02 411.21 DOWN
ASHOKLEY 142.65 140.95 139.25 145.25 147.85 143.55 131.66 UP
ASIANPAINT 1286.4 1281.32 1276.23 1292.12 1297.83 1287.03 1176.74 UP
AUROPHARMA 584.9 576.17 567.43 600.07 615.23 591.33 658.09 DOWN
AXISBANK 540.65 534.4 528.15 549.35 558.05 543.1 532.72 UP
BAJAJ-AUTO 2907.95 2888.33 2868.72 2930.78 2953.62 2911.17 3051.44 DOWN
BAJAJFINSV 6074.8 6023.93 5973.07 6116.83 6158.87 6065.97 5277.13 UP
BAJFINANCE 2231.05 2213.97 2196.88 2259.87 2288.68 2242.78 1819.14 UP
BALKRISIND 1103 1091.97 1080.93 1120.77 1138.53 1109.73 1054.57 UP
BALRAMCHIN 71.2 70.53 69.87 72.18 73.17 71.52 123.27 DOWN
BANKBARODA 136.75 134.25 131.75 138.75 140.75 136.25 151.07 DOWN
BANKINDIA 102.7 100.83 98.97 104.73 106.77 102.87 141.2 DOWN
BATAINDIA 775.4 769.85 764.3 783.95 792.5 778.4 743.64 UP
BEL 119.2 117.72 116.23 121.47 123.73 119.98 159.5 DOWN
BEML 880.2 868.78 857.37 897.23 914.27 885.82 1406.52 DOWN
BERGEPAINT 285.95 283.75 281.55 287.75 289.55 285.55 260.64 UP
BHARATFIN 1179.2 1171.83 1164.47 1189.73 1200.27 1182.37 1035.18 UP
BHARATFORG 656.55 649.72 642.88 666.12 675.68 659.28 695.7 DOWN
BHARTIARTL 375.65 371.67 367.68 381.27 386.88 377.28 439.18 DOWN
BHEL 78.05 77.4 76.75 79.1 80.15 78.45 88.46 DOWN
BIOCON 612.15 605.7 599.25 622.2 632.25 615.75 518.84 UP
BPCL 419.9 415.18 410.47 423.03 426.17 418.32 467.13 DOWN
BRITANNIA 6017.15 5941.5 5865.85 6086.4 6155.65 6010.75 4870.7 UP
CANBK 280.35 277.67 274.98 283.57 286.78 280.88 318.53 DOWN
CANFINHOME 361.15 356.85 352.55 367.45 373.75 363.15 472.16 DOWN
CAPF 589.45 580.97 572.48 597.97 606.48 589.48 686.9 DOWN
CEATLTD 1373.45 1363.17 1352.88 1390.87 1408.28 1380.58 1663.64 DOWN
CENTURYTEX 930.9 922.25 913.6 944.5 958.1 935.85 1245.57 DOWN
CESC 1004.05 998.47 992.88 1010.77 1017.48 1005.18 1023.87 DOWN
CGPOWER 56.85 55.93 55.02 57.98 59.12 57.07 82.32 DOWN
CHENNPETRO 305.7 301 296.3 312.25 318.8 307.55 385.65 DOWN
CHOLAFIN 1601.1 1572.82 1544.53 1639.67 1678.23 1611.38 1351.74 UP
CIPLA 582.1 570.2 558.3 593.75 605.4 581.85 585.71 DOWN
COALINDIA 284 282.53 281.07 286.58 289.17 285.12 279.97 UP
COLPAL 1239 1222.13 1205.27 1254.13 1269.27 1237.27 1084.58 UP
CONCOR 1319.25 1308.28 1297.32 1336.93 1354.62 1325.97 1334.73 DOWN
CUMMINSIND 684.25 678.98 673.72 692.58 700.92 687.32 835.53 DOWN
DABUR 388.15 385.72 383.28 390.32 392.48 387.88 341.08 UP
DALMIABHA 2522.3 2497.17 2472.03 2547.27 2572.23 2522.13 2877.55 DOWN
DCBBANK 180 177.22 174.43 181.97 183.93 179.18 180.79 DOWN
DHFL 629.4 618.93 608.47 642.93 656.47 632.47 578.82 UP
DISHTV 73.3 70.88 68.47 76.08 78.87 73.67 75.51 DOWN
DIVISLAB 1040.3 1028.23 1016.17 1062.23 1084.17 1050.17 1022.58 UP
DLF 205 202.85 200.7 206.9 208.8 204.75 213.9 DOWN
DRREDDY 2256.3 2192.87 2129.43 2311.87 2367.43 2248.43 2228.14 UP
EICHERMOT 29448.6 29280.4 29112.2 29586.4 29724.2 29418.2 29817.88 DOWN
ENGINERSIN 134.5 132.73 130.97 137.53 140.57 135.77 166.05 DOWN
EQUITAS 151.75 150.1 148.45 154.55 157.35 152.9 151.35 UP
ESCORTS 915.45 908.37 901.28 927.27 939.08 920.18 796.64 UP
EXIDEIND 253.7 251.55 249.4 256.8 259.9 254.65 220.24 UP
FEDERALBNK 86.75 85.48 84.22 88.88 91.02 87.62 103.23 DOWN
FORTIS 138.45 137.07 135.68 140.02 141.58 138.63 146.58 DOWN
GAIL 344.85 340.97 337.08 347.07 349.28 343.18 333.47 UP
GLENMARK 571.4 559.63 547.87 591.53 611.67 579.77 572.67 DOWN
GMRINFRA 16.25 16.02 15.78 16.57 16.88 16.33 18.49 DOWN
GODREJCP 1169.1 1163.78 1158.47 1175.68 1182.27 1170.37 1019.79 UP
GODREJIND 609.45 605.98 602.52 613.88 618.32 610.42 584.51 UP
GRANULES 85.75 84.25 82.75 87.8 89.85 86.3 118.53 DOWN
GRASIM 1037 1031.2 1025.4 1043.1 1049.2 1037.3 1138.73 DOWN
GSFC 116.4 115.7 115 117.5 118.6 116.8 135.45 DOWN
HAVELLS 559.45 554.7 549.95 565.25 571.05 560.5 523.87 UP
HCC 15 14.8 14.6 15.25 15.5 15.05 31.68 DOWN
HCLTECH 923.7 916.57 909.43 928.32 932.93 921.18 912.87 UP
HDFC 1832.3 1820.52 1808.73 1850.17 1868.03 1838.38 1788.98 UP
HDFCBANK 2031.45 2018.77 2006.08 2049.47 2067.48 2036.78 1885.4 UP
HEROMOTOCO 3696.8 3680.9 3665 3710.8 3724.8 3694.9 3678.52 UP
HEXAWARE 435 429.7 424.4 442.65 450.3 437.35 349.56 UP
HINDALCO 245 240.7 236.4 248.25 251.5 243.95 246.08 DOWN
HINDPETRO 313.9 310.83 307.77 318.23 322.57 315.17 392.2 DOWN
HINDUNILVR 1621.2 1612.22 1603.23 1637.47 1653.73 1628.48 1346.94 UP
HINDZINC 301.4 298.95 296.5 304.25 307.1 301.8 307.28 DOWN
IBREALEST 172.6 170.53 168.47 175.83 179.07 173.77 212.36 DOWN
IBULHSGFIN 1210.05 1187.9 1165.75 1233.05 1256.05 1210.9 1246.05 DOWN
ICICIBANK 290.75 287.13 283.52 293.63 296.52 290.02 301.65 DOWN
ICICIPRULI 410.35 403.15 395.95 421.8 433.25 414.6 402.19 UP
ICIL 70.1 69.67 69.23 70.77 71.43 70.33 104.36 DOWN
IDBI 62.05 60.93 59.82 63.03 64.02 61.92 62.99 DOWN
IDEA 61.5 60.13 58.77 63.68 65.87 62.32 83.24 DOWN
IDFC 50.65 50.27 49.88 51.22 51.78 50.83 56.87 DOWN
IDFCBANK 43.75 42.98 42.22 44.43 45.12 43.67 52.69 DOWN
IFCI 17.15 16.9 16.65 17.45 17.75 17.2 23.14 DOWN
IGL 267.8 265.18 262.57 272.58 277.37 269.97 297.05 DOWN
INDIACEM 120.1 117.82 115.53 122.42 124.73 120.13 163.7 DOWN
INDIANB 363.95 359.08 354.22 371.98 380.02 367.12 330.91 UP
INDIGO 1218.95 1199.62 1180.28 1235.67 1252.38 1216.33 1224.97 DOWN
INDUSINDBK 1945.45 1932.4 1919.35 1963.65 1981.85 1950.6 1735.94 UP
INFIBEAM 153.9 151.6 149.3 156.45 159 154.15 155.15 DOWN
INFRATEL 300.5 297.33 294.17 302.93 305.37 299.77 360.85 DOWN
INFY 1274.8 1266.4 1258 1283.6 1292.4 1275.2 1059.63 UP
IOC 175.1 173.5 171.9 176.1 177.1 174.5 190.86 DOWN
IRB 236.4 234.5 232.6 238.55 240.7 236.65 230.87 UP
ITC 267.85 266.1 264.35 270.7 273.55 268.95 265.64 UP
JETAIRWAYS 392.3 387.53 382.77 398.53 404.77 393.77 624.8 DOWN
JINDALSTEL 245.9 243.68 241.47 248.73 251.57 246.52 208.3 UP
JISLJALEQS 101.2 100.37 99.53 102.47 103.73 101.63 111.36 DOWN
JPASSOCIAT 14.4 14.2 14 14.7 15 14.5 19.01 DOWN
JSWENERGY 73.75 73.13 72.52 74.78 75.82 74.17 79.87 DOWN
JSWSTEEL 343 339.57 336.13 345.97 348.93 342.53 284.97 UP
JUBLFOOD 2670.6 2644.37 2618.13 2713.37 2756.13 2687.13 1962.19 UP
JUSTDIAL 566.3 557.63 548.97 581.33 596.37 572.67 469.23 UP
KOTAKBANK 1325.65 1315 1304.35 1333.95 1342.25 1323.3 1084.15 UP
KPIT 276.95 272.33 267.72 284.48 292.02 279.87 192.13 UP
KSCL 563.85 536.73 509.62 582.48 601.12 555.37 524.3 UP
KTKBANK 120.25 119.38 118.52 121.48 122.72 120.62 140.22 DOWN
L&TFH 165.6 163.93 162.27 168.33 171.07 166.67 177.78 DOWN
LICHSGFIN 497 492.9 488.8 504.05 511.1 499.95 565.36 DOWN
LT 1358.75 1351.75 1344.75 1367 1375.25 1360 1276.65 UP
LUPIN 871.9 861.93 851.97 881.93 891.97 871.97 868.77 UP
M&M 917.65 914.47 911.28 921.12 924.58 917.93 745.03 UP
M&MFIN 487 483.33 479.67 492.88 498.77 489.22 455.24 UP
MANAPPURAM 107.35 106.32 105.28 108.87 110.38 107.83 107.69 DOWN
MARICO 337.05 334.03 331.02 342.13 347.22 339.12 315.6 UP
MARUTI 8967.35 8908.58 8849.82 9060.53 9153.72 9001.77 8683.17 UP
MCDOWELL-N 3432.85 3399.28 3365.72 3461.18 3489.52 3427.62 3153.14 UP
MCX 819.05 808.03 797.02 837.03 855.02 826.02 891.76 DOWN
MGL 829.05 822.93 816.82 839.23 849.42 833.12 1032.08 DOWN
MOTHERSUMI 309.4 305.97 302.53 314.87 320.33 311.43 344.55 DOWN
MRF 75048.05 74589.25 74130.45 75869.66 76691.26 75410.85 70108.81 UP
MRPL 94.3 91.95 89.6 96.5 98.7 94.15 119.98 DOWN
MUTHOOTFIN 388.1 383.05 378 396.3 404.5 391.25 440.89 DOWN
NATIONALUM 70.85 69.77 68.68 72.67 74.48 71.58 77.31 DOWN
NBCC 87.5 86.23 84.97 89.78 92.07 88.52 111.03 DOWN
NCC 108.5 106.08 103.67 112.53 116.57 110.12 114.02 DOWN
NMDC 115.65 114.73 113.82 117.08 118.52 116.17 127.75 DOWN
NTPC 160.25 159.62 158.98 161.27 162.28 160.63 171.65 DOWN
OFSS 4000.4 3966.7 3933 4022.05 4043.7 3988.35 3853.57 UP
ONGC 170 168.4 166.8 171.8 173.6 170.2 181.07 DOWN
ORIENTBANK 83.5 82.17 80.83 85.87 88.23 84.53 110.86 DOWN
PCJEWELLER 156.45 147.7 138.95 162.5 168.55 153.75 347.17 DOWN
PEL 2443.05 2413.12 2383.18 2470.87 2498.68 2440.93 2642.41 DOWN
PETRONET 217.3 215.2 213.1 220.2 223.1 218.1 239.6 DOWN
PFC 84.1 83.25 82.4 85.45 86.8 84.6 106.89 DOWN
PIDILITIND 1083.4 1065.87 1048.33 1096.12 1108.83 1078.58 912.48 UP
PNB 91.3 90.4 89.5 92.7 94.1 91.8 136.38 DOWN
POWERGRID 198.15 195.72 193.28 199.97 201.78 197.53 203.86 DOWN
PTC 85.3 84.57 83.83 85.97 86.63 85.23 106.19 DOWN
PVR 1417.8 1403.43 1389.07 1436.08 1454.37 1421.72 1352.53 UP
RAMCOCEM 738.05 729.88 721.72 750.53 763.02 742.37 749 DOWN
RAYMOND 987.6 975.9 964.2 1004.65 1021.7 992.95 967.61 UP
RBLBANK 557.65 548.37 539.08 568.47 579.28 559.18 509.65 UP
RCOM 16 15.57 15.13 16.67 17.33 16.23 20.44 DOWN
RECLTD 117.8 116.1 114.4 119.35 120.9 117.65 140.86 DOWN
RELCAPITAL 425.6 419.1 412.6 433.5 441.4 427 500.54 DOWN
RELIANCE 1002.5 992.7 982.9 1009.1 1015.7 999.3 911.03 UP
RELINFRA 439.65 435.7 431.75 445.1 450.55 441.15 465.32 DOWN
REPCOHOME 567.05 559.73 552.42 574.63 582.22 567.32 615.37 DOWN
RPOWER 35.75 35.33 34.92 36.43 37.12 36.02 40.87 DOWN
SAIL 87.9 86.6 85.3 90.15 92.4 88.85 76.67 UP
SBIN 287.7 284.35 281 290.35 293 287 280.15 UP
SHREECEM 16382.25 16234.53 16086.82 16515.48 16648.72 16367.77 17222.27 DOWN
SIEMENS 1023 1014.33 1005.67 1037.33 1051.67 1028.67 1182.93 DOWN
SOUTHBANK 24.95 24.8 24.65 25.15 25.35 25 28.44 DOWN
SREINFRA 74 72.83 71.67 75.68 77.37 74.52 94.65 DOWN
SRF 1838.4 1814.65 1790.9 1872.9 1907.4 1849.15 1857.01 DOWN
SRTRANSFIN 1507.3 1493.07 1478.83 1525.27 1543.23 1511.03 1337.16 UP
STAR 358.4 351.9 345.4 369.2 380 362.7 736.42 DOWN
SUNPHARMA 546.3 538.78 531.27 557.38 568.47 549.87 525.78 UP
SUNTV 932.75 924.57 916.38 945.47 958.18 937.28 893.72 UP
SUZLON 8.15 8.05 7.95 8.3 8.45 8.2 13.41 DOWN
SYNDIBANK 52 51.1 50.2 53.2 54.4 52.3 67.4 DOWN
TATACHEM 741.35 734.28 727.22 745.73 750.12 738.67 707.69 UP
TATACOMM 608.8 604.35 599.9 614.9 621 610.45 655.62 DOWN
TATAELXSI 1280.2 1269.77 1259.33 1293.92 1307.63 1283.48 996.35 UP
TATAGLOBAL 269.6 266.47 263.33 271.62 273.63 268.48 261.27 UP
TATAMOTORS 308.4 306.52 304.63 310.77 313.13 308.88 380.56 DOWN
TATAMTRDVR 185.05 182.7 180.35 187.7 190.35 185.35 216.41 DOWN
TATAPOWER 77.05 76.45 75.85 78 78.95 77.4 85.25 DOWN
TATASTEEL 567.6 561.13 554.67 578.93 590.27 572.47 661.26 DOWN
TCS 1824.1 1804.18 1784.27 1837.83 1851.57 1817.92 759.09 UP
TECHM 713.8 708.43 703.07 717.13 720.47 711.77 559.32 UP
TITAN 918.15 906.5 894.85 928.3 938.45 916.65 810.99 UP
TV18BRDCST 57.9 57.18 56.47 58.68 59.47 57.97 54.28 UP
TVSMOTOR 578.1 573.63 569.17 584.28 590.47 579.82 666.84 DOWN
UBL 1278.95 1267.97 1256.98 1292.42 1305.88 1281.43 1032.83 UP
UJJIVAN 396.7 393.5 390.3 401.9 407.1 398.7 372.59 UP
ULTRACEMCO 3800.6 3753.33 3706.07 3841.43 3882.27 3794.17 4115.69 DOWN
UNIONBANK 95.55 94.42 93.28 96.82 98.08 95.68 125.21 DOWN
UPL 687.55 683.03 678.52 693.03 698.52 688.52 751.65 DOWN
VGUARD 211.4 209.93 208.47 212.93 214.47 211.47 221.84 DOWN
VOLTAS 524.7 516.77 508.83 536.27 547.83 528.33 590.38 DOWN
WIPRO 268.8 267.1 265.4 270.25 271.7 268.55 290.76 DOWN
WOCKPHARMA 704.8 695.98 687.17 719.63 734.47 710.82 736.61 DOWN
YESBANK 333.2 330.83 328.47 336.23 339.27 333.87 331.48 UP
ZEEL 557.1 553.03 548.97 563.13 569.17 559.07 561.45 DOWN
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Comfort ‘Forecast and Analysis’
Forecast and Analysis is a daily newsletter that provides technical update on all the major instruments of the world like Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, US Dollar Index and USD/INR. We define their support and resistance levels and attempt to forecast their movement with a short / medium term perspective. Also in the report, a trader will find bias for the mentioned instruments.
This newsletter is also quite popular with a market participant who loves to have insight & theme on MCX Gold, MCX Silver as well MCX Crude-Oil.
Forecast and Analysis
Instrument TRADING STRATEGYLTP S1 S2 R1 R2 Bias
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MCX GOLD
MCX SILVER
MCX CRUDE OIL
MCX COPPER
MCX NATURAL GAS
USD-INR
Forecast and Analysis …Direction at a glance
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In yesterday's trade, MCX Gold was seen consolidating. Bias continues to be positive. Interweek Strategy: Establish long positions on dips to 30250-30350 zone, targeting 31387 zone and then at 31600-31709 zone with stop at 29981.
Silver prices too were seen consolidating in yesterday's trade, unable to get any traction. Bias shifts to positive. Establish long positions between 39000-39100 zone, targeting 40001 and then at 40951-41001 zone with stop at 38251.
The biggest support level to watch is at 4211. Interweek strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting 4501 zone and then at 4811-4825 zone with stop at 4211.
Copper prices were seen trading with slight negative bias amidst profit booking. Support now seen at 473. Interweek strategy: Establish buy positions between 481-483 zone, targeting 501 and then at 505-511 zone with stop at 473.
Natural Gas prices were seen inching up in yesterday's trade amidst value buying. Key supports now at 187.05. Interweek strategy: Establish long positions between 195-197 zone, targeting 207.50 and then aggressive targets at 215-221 zone with stop at 185.45.
USD/INR was seen inching up in yesterday's trade amidst value buying. Key interweek support seen at 67.05. Hurdles now seen at 70.05. Interweek Strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting 68.45 and then aggressive targets at 70-70.05 zone with stop below 66.71.
31156 30251 29901 31387 31709 Positive
40839 39001 38251 40501 41001 Positive
4493 4305 4211 4611 4971 Positive
485 481 473 501 505 Positive
200.80 187.00 175.00 207.50 221.00 Positive
67.56 67.05 66.45 68.45 70.05 Positive
The technical landscape for MCX Copper continues to be positive. Buy on any corrective declines.
Instrument TRADING STRATEGYLTP S1 S2 R1 R2
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GOLD $
SILVER ($)
WTI CRUDE OIL ($ )
EUR/USD
Forecast and Analysis …Sailing global trend
Bias
DOW JONES
US Dollar Index
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Wall Street trades mostly lower after Fed hikes rates for second time in 2018.
In yesterday's trade, gold prices were seen trading in a range, struggling to inch up. Confirmation of strength only above 1309. Interweek strategy: Establish long positions at CMP, targeting 1309 zone and then at 1317-1321 zone with stop at 1283.
Silver was seen attempting a slight rebound, despite rangebound gold prices. Confirmation of strength only above 16.95. Interweek strategy: Establish long positions at CMP, targeting 17.45 and then at 17.75-18.01 zone with stop at 16.95.
Crude-Oil prices were seen inching up in yesterday's trade. Major hurdles now seen at 69.05. Interweek strategy: Buy at CMP, targeting 69 zone and then at 72.50-73.05 zone with stop at 64.05.
The EUR/USD was seen trading rangebound in yesterday's trade amidst value buying. Technically, the bias continues to be neutral with key support to watch on EUR/USD at 1.1505. Hurdles seen at 1.1901.
The U.S. dollar was seen consolidating in yesterday's trade. Technically, bias shifts to neutral/negative. Hurdles at 95. Downside well supported at 92.50. Major weakness now below 92.50.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was consolidating n yesterday's trade with investors focus shifting to Fed's meet outcome.Technically, hurdles seen at 26125.
1303 1295 1283 1309 1321 Neutral
16.99 16.09 15.75 17.45 18.01 Neutral
66.55 64.25 62.5 69.05 73.05 Neutral
1.1790 1.1505 1.4445 1.1901 1.2205 Neutral
93.60 92.05 89.25 95.00 97.50 Neutral
25275 23405 22501 25225 26125 Negative
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DAILY PIVOT TABLE
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CommodityExchange Close S1 S2 R1 R2200 Day
SMA Reversal
Point Trend
MCX ALUMINUM
MCX CARDAMOM
NCDEX CASTOR
NCDEX CHANA
MCX COPPER
MCX COTTON
MCX CRUDE-OIL
MCX GOLD
NCDEX GAUR GUM
NCDEX GAUR SEED
NCDEX JEERA
MCX LEAD
MCX MENTHA OIL
MCX NATURAL GAS
MCX NICKLE
NCDEX RM SEED
MCX SILVER
NCDEX SUGAR
NCDEX SOYA BEAN
MCX ZINC
156.35 155.5 154.65 157.6 158.85 141.42 157.7 DOWN
892.5 890 887.5 895 897.5 1048.93 849.75 UP
3846 3833 3820 3866 3886 4282.18 3939 DOWN
3286 3243 3200 3331 3376 4358.25 3509 DOWN
484.6 482.23 479.87 486.83 489.07 449.19 472.9 UP
23040 22886.67 22733.33 23136.67 23233.33 19857.95 22330 UP
4478 4440.33 4402.67 4519.33 4560.67 3933.5 4565 DOWN
31156 31084.67 31013.33 31217.67 31279.33 30070.57 30789 UP
7503 7432 7361 7587 7671 8608.54 7748 DOWN
3593.5 3571.67 3549.83 3618.67 3643.83 3975.99 3727 DOWN
16185 16048.33 15911.67 16283.33 16381.67 17927.7 16395 DOWN
166.55 165.73 164.92 167.93 169.32 160.24 163.4 UP
1123 1111.33 1099.67 1146.33 1169.67 1415.67 1247.7 DOWN
198.5 196.6 194.7 201.1 203.7 187.66 192.9 UP
1029 1021.33 1013.67 1036.63 1044.27 836.57 1012.1 UP
3907 3895 3883 3929 3951 3941.38 4007 DOWN
40691 40471.34 40251.67 40869.34 41047.67 39216.41 39634 UP
2709 2709 2709 2709 2709 3619.22 2651 UP
3326 3301.33 3276.67 3365.33 3404.67 3346.56 3508 DOWN
217.45 216.45 215.45 218.5 219.55 211.46 212.4 UP
Thursday14th June, 2018
Comfort Securities Ltd.
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Technical analysis studies market psychology, price patterns and volume levels. It is used to forecast future price and market movements. Technical analysis is complementary to fundamental analysis and news sources. The recommendations issued herewith might be contrary to recommendations issued by Comfort Securities Ltd. in the company research undertaken as the recommendations stated in this report is derived purely from technical analysis. Comfort Securities Ltd. has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Comfort Securities Ltd. makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained within the report are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information and any disclosures provided herein are in summary form and have been prepared for informational purposes. The recommendations and suggested price levels are intended purely for trading purposes. The recommendations are valid for the day of the report however trading trends and volumes might vary substantially on an intraday basis and the recommendations may be subject to change. The information and any disclosures provided herein may be considered confidential. Any use, distribution, modification, copying, forwarding or disclosure by any person is strictly prohibited. The information and any disclosures provided herein do not constitute a solicitation or offer to purchase or sell any security or other financial product or instrument. The current performance may be unaudited. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. There can be no assurance that investments will achieve any targeted rates of return, and there is no guarantee against the loss of your entire investment.
POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST DISCLOSURE (as on date of report)Disclosure of interest statement – • Analyst interest of the stock /Instrument(s): - No. • Firm interest of the stock / Instrument (s): - No.
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