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You have been framed!

Effects of framing flood risks on people’s information need

Dr. Teun Terpstra, HKV Consultantsterpstra@hkv.nl

FloodRisk2012, November 22, Rotterdam

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Set-up of presentation

• Introduction– Background (Rotterdam “buitendijks”)– Framing in risk communication– Information need and its predictors

• Hypotheses

• Questionnaire

• Results (mediation analyses)

• Implications

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Rotterdam

Old docksCentrally locatedNo longer used for shipping

Dordrecht

Outside embanked areaVulnerable to flooding

Attractive for living working and leisure Hamburg

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Policy questionHow do future inhabitants perceive the dual character of

these areas?

Research question1. How does risk communication influence people’s risk

perceptions and their information needs? 2. What is the effect of risk framing?

Knowledge for Climate research project

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Framing in communication refers to • an (un)intented focus• on certain aspects of a situation or issue• through systematic use of language and symbols• which influence our thoughts, mental representations,

and interpretations• resulting in a simplification of reality

Framing

Frames• can be misleading (advertising, politics)• help us to recognize and understand each other without

explaining continously what we are trying to say

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Hamburger• 85% lean• 15% fat

Netherlands• Water safety• Flood risk

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Focus on “Information need”

• See:– Griffin et al. (1999, 2004, 2008), – Ter Huurne (2008, 2009)

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Focus on “Information need”

Information need• predictor of information

seeking behaviour (active)

• reflects people’s openness to further communication (passive)

Cognitive responses• Risk perception• Trust in risk

authorities

Affective responses• Positive affect • Negative affect

Risk CommunicationFramesFear appeal

See:• Griffin et al. (1999, 2004, 2008), • Ter Huurne (2008, 2009)

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Experimental questionnaire: design

Emphasis

Control group (bench mark) No informationn=200

Frames:

• During high water levels streets can be covered with water.

• On average, such high water levels occur once in 10 years.

1. Climate change n=400

2. Safetyn=400

3. Amenitiesn=400

Emphasis Fear appeal

Control group (bench mark) No informationn=200

Low

Frames:

• During high water levels streets can be covered with water.

• On average, such high water levels occur once in 10 years.

1. Climate change n=400

Maximum

2. Safetyn=400

Reduced (reassurance)

3. Amenitiesn=400

Reduced (distraction)

Emphasis Fear appeal H1 H2 H3

Control group (bench mark) No informationn=200

Low x

Frames:

• During high water levels streets can be covered with water.

• On average, such high water levels occur once in 10 years.

Basic fear appeal

1. Climate change

n=400

Maximum x y z

2. Safetyn=400

Reduced (reassurance)

x y

3. Amenitiesn=400

Reduced (distraction)

x z

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Example: Climate change frame (max fear appeal)

Floods are part of life and may cause substantial damage. In addition, the climate is changing, which will increase river discharges and sea level rise. According to experts, the Netherlands is insufficiently protected against the consequences of climate change. As a result, flood risk in residential areas in unprotected floodplains will increase in future.

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Questionnaire & Sample

• Questionnaire variables 1-7 rating scales

– Risk perception (2 items)– Trust in flood risk management (5 items)– Negative affect (4 items)– Positive affect (4 items)– Information need (5 items)

• TNS NIPO, Sample: N = 1457– Frames: N > 400– Control group: N>200– Response rate 69%

• Analysis– SPSS, Preacher & Hayes

mediation procedure

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1 2 3 4 5Positive affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a happy feeling. 0.971… gives me a cheerful feeling. 0.949… gives me a good feeling. 0.934… gives me a pleasant feeling. 0.932Information need. To what extent would you need information about …… the measures you could take to prevent flood damage to your possessions? 0.915…. about the possibilities for evacuation in case of a flood threat? 0.908… how serious flood damage could be? 0.906… who is responsible for flood damage to your possessions? 0.897… the chance of flooding in the years ahead? 0.87Trust in flood management. To what extent do you trust that authorities will be able to… give timely warnings to citizens in unprotected neighborhoods, so they can move their car or take other protective measures?

0.909

… make accurate predictions about flood levels in unprotected neighborhoods? 0.888… design and plan unprotected neighborhoods so that there will little are no risk of flood damage to homes and possessions of dwellers?

0.875

… manage the flood risks in unprotected neighborhoods in the next 20 years? 0.861… ensure that it will be safe for you (and your family) to live in an unprotected neighborhood?

0.853

Negative affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a restless feeling. 0.947… gives me a worried feeling. 0.925… gives me an unsafe feeling. 0.91… gives me an anxious feeling. 0.904Risk perceptionsDue to climate change and flood risks housing prices in unprotected areas will decrease in the future

0.852

Due to climate change flood frequency and flood levels in unprotected city harbors will increase

0.838

Eigen value 7.93 3.94 2.11 1.63 0.98Cronbach alpha 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.64

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1 2 3 4 5Positive affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a happy feeling. 0.971… gives me a cheerful feeling. 0.949… gives me a good feeling. 0.934… gives me a pleasant feeling. 0.932Information need. To what extent would you need information about …… the measures you could take to prevent flood damage to your possessions? 0.915…. about the possibilities for evacuation in case of a flood threat? 0.908… how serious flood damage could be? 0.906… who is responsible for flood damage to your possessions? 0.897… the chance of flooding in the years ahead? 0.87Trust in flood management. To what extent do you trust that authorities will be able to… give timely warnings to citizens in unprotected neighborhoods, so they can move their car or take other protective measures?

0.909

… make accurate predictions about flood levels in unprotected neighborhoods? 0.888… design and plan unprotected neighborhoods so that there will little are no risk of flood damage to homes and possessions of dwellers?

0.875

… manage the flood risks in unprotected neighborhoods in the next 20 years? 0.861… ensure that it will be safe for you (and your family) to live in an unprotected neighborhood?

0.853

Negative affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a restless feeling. 0.947… gives me a worried feeling. 0.925… gives me an unsafe feeling. 0.91… gives me an anxious feeling. 0.904Risk perceptionsDue to climate change and flood risks housing prices in unprotected areas will decrease in the future

0.852

Due to climate change flood frequency and flood levels in unprotected city harbors will increase

0.838

Eigen value 7.93 3.94 2.11 1.63 0.98Cronbach alpha 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.64

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1 2 3 4 5Positive affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a happy feeling. 0.971… gives me a cheerful feeling. 0.949… gives me a good feeling. 0.934… gives me a pleasant feeling. 0.932Information need. To what extent would you need information about …… the measures you could take to prevent flood damage to your possessions? 0.915…. about the possibilities for evacuation in case of a flood threat? 0.908… how serious flood damage could be? 0.906… who is responsible for flood damage to your possessions? 0.897… the chance of flooding in the years ahead? 0.87Trust in flood management. To what extent do you trust that authorities will be able to… give timely warnings to citizens in unprotected neighborhoods, so they can move their car or take other protective measures?

0.909

… make accurate predictions about flood levels in unprotected neighborhoods? 0.888… design and plan unprotected neighborhoods so that there will little are no risk of flood damage to homes and possessions of dwellers?

0.875

… manage the flood risks in unprotected neighborhoods in the next 20 years? 0.861… ensure that it will be safe for you (and your family) to live in an unprotected neighborhood?

0.853

Negative affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a restless feeling. 0.947… gives me a worried feeling. 0.925… gives me an unsafe feeling. 0.91… gives me an anxious feeling. 0.904Risk perceptionsDue to climate change and flood risks housing prices in unprotected areas will decrease in the future

0.852

Due to climate change flood frequency and flood levels in unprotected city harbors will increase

0.838

Eigen value 7.93 3.94 2.11 1.63 0.98Cronbach alpha 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.64

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1 2 3 4 5Positive affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a happy feeling. 0.971… gives me a cheerful feeling. 0.949… gives me a good feeling. 0.934… gives me a pleasant feeling. 0.932Information need. To what extent would you need information about …… the measures you could take to prevent flood damage to your possessions? 0.915…. about the possibilities for evacuation in case of a flood threat? 0.908… how serious flood damage could be? 0.906… who is responsible for flood damage to your possessions? 0.897… the chance of flooding in the years ahead? 0.87Trust in flood management. To what extent do you trust that authorities will be able to… give timely warnings to citizens in unprotected neighborhoods, so they can move their car or take other protective measures?

0.909

… make accurate predictions about flood levels in unprotected neighborhoods? 0.888… design and plan unprotected neighborhoods so that there will little are no risk of flood damage to homes and possessions of dwellers?

0.875

… manage the flood risks in unprotected neighborhoods in the next 20 years? 0.861… ensure that it will be safe for you (and your family) to live in an unprotected neighborhood?

0.853

Negative affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a restless feeling. 0.947… gives me a worried feeling. 0.925… gives me an unsafe feeling. 0.91… gives me an anxious feeling. 0.904Risk perceptionsDue to climate change and flood risks housing prices in unprotected areas will decrease in the future

0.852

Due to climate change flood frequency and flood levels in unprotected city harbors will increase

0.838

Eigen value 7.93 3.94 2.11 1.63 0.98Cronbach alpha 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.64

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1 2 3 4 5Positive affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a happy feeling. 0.971… gives me a cheerful feeling. 0.949… gives me a good feeling. 0.934… gives me a pleasant feeling. 0.932Information need. To what extent would you need information about …… the measures you could take to prevent flood damage to your possessions? 0.915…. about the possibilities for evacuation in case of a flood threat? 0.908… how serious flood damage could be? 0.906… who is responsible for flood damage to your possessions? 0.897… the chance of flooding in the years ahead? 0.87Trust in flood management. To what extent do you trust that authorities will be able to… give timely warnings to citizens in unprotected neighborhoods, so they can move their car or take other protective measures?

0.909

… make accurate predictions about flood levels in unprotected neighborhoods? 0.888… design and plan unprotected neighborhoods so that there will little are no risk of flood damage to homes and possessions of dwellers?

0.875

… manage the flood risks in unprotected neighborhoods in the next 20 years? 0.861… ensure that it will be safe for you (and your family) to live in an unprotected neighborhood?

0.853

Negative affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a restless feeling. 0.947… gives me a worried feeling. 0.925… gives me an unsafe feeling. 0.91… gives me an anxious feeling. 0.904Risk perceptionsDue to climate change and flood risks housing prices in unprotected areas will decrease in the future

0.852

Due to climate change flood frequency and flood levels in unprotected city harbors will increase

0.838

Eigen value 7.93 3.94 2.11 1.63 0.98Cronbach alpha 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.64

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1 2 3 4 5Positive affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a happy feeling. 0.971… gives me a cheerful feeling. 0.949… gives me a good feeling. 0.934… gives me a pleasant feeling. 0.932Information need. To what extent would you need information about …… the measures you could take to prevent flood damage to your possessions? 0.915…. about the possibilities for evacuation in case of a flood threat? 0.908… how serious flood damage could be? 0.906… who is responsible for flood damage to your possessions? 0.897… the chance of flooding in the years ahead? 0.87Trust in flood management. To what extent do you trust that authorities will be able to… give timely warnings to citizens in unprotected neighborhoods, so they can move their car or take other protective measures?

0.909

… make accurate predictions about flood levels in unprotected neighborhoods? 0.888… design and plan unprotected neighborhoods so that there will little are no risk of flood damage to homes and possessions of dwellers?

0.875

… manage the flood risks in unprotected neighborhoods in the next 20 years? 0.861… ensure that it will be safe for you (and your family) to live in an unprotected neighborhood?

0.853

Negative affect. The idea of living in an unprotected neighborhood …… gives me a restless feeling. 0.947… gives me a worried feeling. 0.925… gives me an unsafe feeling. 0.91… gives me an anxious feeling. 0.904Risk perceptionsDue to climate change and flood risks housing prices in unprotected areas will decrease in the future

0.852

Due to climate change flood frequency and flood levels in unprotected city harbors will increase

0.838

Eigen value 7.93 3.94 2.11 1.63 0.98Cronbach alpha 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.64

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H1: independent of the frame, risk communication causes fear appeal resulting in higher information need,

Information need

All frames vs control group

+

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Information need

All frames vs control group

Negative affect

Risk perception

a=1.34**

a=0.23*

Positive affect

Perceived Trust

a = -0.57**

a = -0. 73**

b=0.17*

b=0.37**

H1: independent of the frame,risk communication causes fear appeal, resulting in higher information need.

+

Unstandardized regression coefficients

*p<.01, **p<.001

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H2: compared to emphasis on climate change,emphasis on safety reassures people, resulting in lower information need.

Information need

Climate change vs Safety

Negative affect

Risk perceptiona=-0.11*

Positive affect

Perceived Trust

b=0.26**

b=0.35**

_

Unstandardized regression coefficients

*p<.01, **p<.001

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H3: compared to emphasis on climate change,emphasis on amenities distracts attention from the threat, resulting in lower information need

Information need

Climate change vs Amenties

Negative affect

Risk perception

a=-0.21**

a=-0.11*

Positive affect

Perceived Trust

a = 0.26**

b=0.26**

b=0.35**

_

Unstandardized regression coefficients

*p<.01, **p<.001

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Conclusions

• H1: – risk communication increases information need– Effects are mediated by classic fear appeal variables (risk

perception and negative affect)

• H2/3: – Fear appeal is somewhat reduced when focusing on safety

or amenities– Large portion of fear appeal effect remains intact

• Implications:– Theoretical: Trust and Positive affect are influenced by

communication, but do not mediate the framing effects on information need

– Practical: risk communication stimulates citizens’ openness to further risk communication, even when information stresses safety and amenities