Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity

Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity

Claudia Ringler and Ximing Caiet al.

Chiang Mai

Sep 18-20, 2009

College of Water Sciences, BNU

1

INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

PROJECT OBJECTIVES

� Study water poverty, water availability and access, water productivity, and water and related institutions in the YRB to develop and rank a series of high-priority interventions aimed at increasing water and food security for the poor while maintaining environmental sustainability

BACKGROUND

Basin Area: 795,000 km2 (incl

inland basin of ~40,000 km2)

Pop: 120-200 million (150-250/km2)

River Length: 5,454 km

Elevation Drop: 4,480 m

GDP : US$88 billion

Cultiv land: ~12 million ha, 6-8 m

ha irrigated

Avg rainfall: 450-60 mm

Avg runoff: 58->53.5 BCM

GW: 11-14 BCM

Total volume: 71.9 BCM

Per cap water: 590 m3

Sedim conc 35kg/m3

NingxiaShaanxi

Henan

College of Water Sciences, BNU

Unit:

Area: km2

Runoff: ×108m3

Lanzhou upstream

Area: 222,551; 30%Runoff: 313.1; 54%

Wei River

Area: 134,766; 18%Runoff: 100.4; 17%

Water Balance in the YRBKEY UPSTREAM BASINS

U/s: 31 BCM, M/s: 20 BCM, D/s: 2 BCM


Land cover map, YRB

Yellow River Basin population density

Water Balance in the YRB

Precipitation: 466 mm/a = 370 BCM/a

Potential Evap: 800-1000 mm/a in South1800-2000 mm/a in North

Runoff: ~58 BCM/a (53.5 BCM/a in the updated YRCC assessment)

Lanzhou upstreamRunoff: 364; Per.: 55.6%

Kuye RiverRunoff:10.34;Per.: 1.5%

Sanchuan RiverRunoff:6.63;Per.: 1%

Wuding RiverRunof:14.1;Per.: 2.2%

Wei RiverRunoff:120.7; Per.: 18.4%

Yiluo RiverRunoff:33.1; Per.: 5.%

Qin RiverRunoff:19.1;Per.: 2.9%

Unit：：：：Runoff:××××108 m3

WP 2: Analysis of water availability and accessSWAT-BNU - Runoff percentage: 86.6%

Water Scarcity in the Yellow River Basin: Physical Scarcity

2%

25%17%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Annual runoff Per capita water

availability

Water availability for

cultivated land

Share of country total (%)


Key off-stream water uses (1998-2000)

Industry

12%

Domestic

7%

Agricult

81%

plus estimated 20 BCM needed for sediment flushing

Years Reach Total Agricultural Industrial Domestic

1988-1992a Upper 13.11 12.38 0.51 0.22

Middle 5.44 4.77 0.38 0.28

Lower 12.18 11.24 0.55 0.38

Basin 30.72 28.39 1.45 0.89

2002-

2004b Upper 17.54 15.71 1.42 0.41

Middle 5.71 4.16 0.97 0.58

Lower 8.44 7.04 0.82 0.58

Basin 31.69 26.91 3.21 1.57

Difference Upper 34% 27% 179% 84%

Middle 5% -13% 155% 108%

Lower -31% -37% 49% 54%

Basin 3% -5% 121% 77% aData from Chen (2002). bYRCC Water Resources Bulletins of 2002-2004.

YELLOW RIVER WATER USE BY SECTOR


Increasing Water Competition in China(Similar trend in the YRB)

97

2

1

88

11

1

65

22

13

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1949 1978 2004

Domestic

Industry

Agriculture


Main Irrigated Areas in the YRB


Slowdown in irrigated area expansion

2005-20102000-20051995-2000

7.5


Key crops (18 m ha)

Rice

2%

Wheat

44%

Maize

23%

Soybean

6%

Tubers

10%

Other

cereals

15%

Days without discharge at the downstream flow station

0000

50505050

100100100100

150150150150

200200200200

250250250250

197219

7219

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7819

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0020

0020

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0220

0220

0220

0220

0420

0420

0420

04Unit: days

Flow restoration benefit: US$2.5 billion (ind/dom/ag/env)

Agricultural Water Consumption

122,3

177,7

249,8

286,1299,6 292,5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2006

100 million cubic meters


Water quality

� About 5 BCM of wastewater

� Rapid decline in water quality—at an unknown cost to the basin

� WQ above level III dropped from 80% in the 1980s to 60% in the 1990s and less than 20% by 2002� since then some progress with WQ improvement

� Wetlands shrank by 50% over the last 20 years (CP 2nd call project on topic)


Climate change analysis (SWAT)

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

20019

60

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

(b)

Precipitation(m

m)

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

(b)

Tem

perature(℃

)

Lanzhou

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

年

年平均降水距平百分率

5年滑动平均降水距平百分率

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

Wei


Climate change analysis

Lanzhou

(d)

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

1 3 5 7 9 11 Month

Q（m3/s）

Observed Simulated

2010s 2020s

2030s 2050s

兰州

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

月流量

(m3/s)

Baseline

2020s

2050s

2080s

Lanzhou

Wei

Overall lower runoff despite additional precipitation under Had SRES B2

28

Results of irrigated and rainfed area

Crops Basin-wide Middle stream Downstream

AI(1000 ha)

Rice 25.2 13.0 12.3

Corn 540.2 254.3 284.9

Wheat 1141.0 536.4 597.7

Soybean 149.6 80.6 69.0

AR(1000 ha)

Rice 0.0 0.0 0.0

Corn 68.8 30.3 37.9

Wheat 0.0 0.0 0.0

Soybean 30.1 14.3 15.8

29

Irrigation requirement

30

Results of irrigated and rainfed yield

Crops Basin-wide Mid-stream Downstream

YI(ton/ha)

Rice 5.4 5.5 5.3

Corn 5.3 5.0 5.7

Wheat 3.7 2.8 4.4

Soybean 1.4 1.2 1.7

YR(ton/ha)

Rice 0.0 0.0 0.0

Corn 3.0 1.9 4.0

Wheat 0.0 0.0 0.0

Soybean 1.4 1.0 1.9

31

Results of WPI

32

Results of WPI

Region/CropsArea Weighted WPI(kg/m3)

Rice Corn Wheat Soybean

Basinwide average 0.50 0.97 1.39 0.26

standard deviation 0.25 0.32 0.51 0.13

Mid-stream 0.49 0.94 1.16 0.26


Downstream 0.51 0.99 1.57 0.27


33

Results of WPR

34

Results of WPR

Region/CropsArea Weighted WPR(kg/m3)

Rice Corn Wheat Soybean

Basinwide average - 1.09 - 0.41

standard deviation - 0.36 - 0.16

Middle stream - 0.68 - 0.28


Downstream - 1.41 - 0.52


INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE35

WP3

� Irrigated yield is significantly higher than the rainfed yield for corn, and soybean in different regions of the YRB ; however for soybean in downstream, rainfed yield is even higher than irrigated yield

� WPI is slightly lower than WPR for corn and soybean, which implies the irrigated crops may not be as efficient as rainfedcrops with regard to water productivity for particular crops in the YRB.


WP3

� WPI and WPR vary spatially from upstream to downstream with both climate and water supply condition.

� The water factor is particularly sensitive to spatial scale, which reflects the impact of water regulation over space in the YRB through engineering measures

� The water factor has stronger effect on both crop yield and WP than the energy factor


WP3

� Irrigation stabilizes the crop productionper unit of water consumption.

� Croplands have higher water consumption than urban lands but lower than forest lands

� Among the sub-basins, the midstream region has more important agricultural water management issues from the perspective of both crop yield and WP


Basics--WATER

� State Water Council is final authority for water allocation

� 2002 Water Law, but few implementing regulations -- Focus on river basin management, water conservation, environmental flowsC, among others

� YRCC mandate for water allocation in lower part of the basin, role only for mainstream, not tributaries

� Distorted incentives at irrigation district level


1987 Water Allocation Agreement (37BCM)

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uan

Gan

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Inne

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aanx

iSh

anxi

Hena

nSh

ando

ng

Heb

ei/Tianjin


Basics--FOOD

� Government is pushing agriculture to its limits: striving for continued food self-sufficiency despite extremely scarce resources

� Cthrough large and growing investments in R&D

� Cdirect income transfers to farmers

� Cand subsidies


What limits higher productivity/WUE?

� Proximity to profitable non-farm income reduces productivity even in the highly favorable Southeast of China

� Vested interests, and lack of integrated agriculture and water resource policies are a further blow to higher productivity


WP4 Measures to increase water productivity and deal with water shortages

� Reforming irrigation management institutions

� Reforming water pricing

� Implementing water rights transfer projects

� Adopting water saving technology

� Adopting agricultural technology to increase productivity


Water Pricing Reform

� In the past 15 years, water price in most ID has increased;

� Can water price be further increased?

- ID managers do not like increase

- There are potential negative impacts on farm income and agricultural production

- Difficulty in collecting water fee

� If water price does not change, farmers have no incentive to increase water use efficiency

� What kind of policies are needed for efficient pricing policy?

Water Use and Incentives

0000

5000500050005000

10000100001000010000

15000150001500015000

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25000250002500025000

30000300003000030000

35000350003500035000

WheatWheatWheatWheat MaizeMaizeMaizeMaize RiceRiceRiceRice

With incentiveWith incentiveWith incentiveWith incentive Without incentiveWithout incentiveWithout incentiveWithout incentive

Unit: m3/ha

Water Productivity and Incentives

0000

5000500050005000

10000100001000010000

15000150001500015000

20000200002000020000

25000250002500025000

30000300003000030000

35000350003500035000



Unit: m3/ha

Crop Yield and Incentives

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2000200020002000

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4000400040004000

5000500050005000

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8000800080008000



Unit: kg/ha


Water Allocation among Regions

� Upstream regions use more water than the water quota allocated by YRCC; Salinity issues related with water use volume

� Downstream regions use less water than the water quota allocated by YRCC:

Most are considering to build reservoirs to store unused water

� If the present allocation is not rational is it possible to change the allocation?


WATER VERSUS AG POLICY –Zero-sum game?

� AGRICULTURE POLICY HURTING WATER:

�� fertilizer subsidies adversely impact water quality

�� removal of agricultural land tax increased difficulty to collect water service fee

� WATER POLICY HURTING AGRICULTURE

�� New policy to flush silt out of the lower basin highly effective, but irrigation intakes now too high up in the river bed for water access

�� Policy to increase ISF to conserve water resources hurts ID manager who depend on large irrigation volumes for their income


Poverty headcount varies widely across provinces in the YRB


Wheat yields are higher for the non-poor than that for the poor living in irrigated

and non-irrigated villages


To what extent does access to water reduce poverty?

� Results of our multivariate analysis suggest that, the probability of a household being poor declines by 10.7 percentage points if the household lives in an irrigated village in the YRB region (probit regression model controlling for household size, ownership of assets, rainfall, and distance to facilities)

� Non-farm income is key to pov reduction


Poverty Incidence

0000

2222

4444

6666

8888

10101010

12121212

14141414

16161616

18181818

20202020

ChinaChinaChinaChina

(1996)(1996)(1996)(1996)

ChinaChinaChinaChina

(2001)(2001)(2001)(2001)

NingxiaNingxiaNingxiaNingxia

(1996)(1996)(1996)(1996)

HenanHenanHenanHenan

(1996)(1996)(1996)(1996)

ID (NX-ID (NX-ID (NX-ID (NX-

2001)2001)2001)2001)

ID (HN-ID (HN-ID (HN-ID (HN-

2001)2001)2001)2001)

Unit: %

Poverty Distribution along canals in the YRB (2001)

9.5Lower

0UpperLiuyuankou ID

4.9Lower

16.0UpperRenminsh. ID

Henan

9.4Lower

3.2UpperQingtongxia ID

6.3Lower

5.6UpperWeining ID

Ningxia

Poverty incidence (%)Reach of IDs

HH Characteristics by Income Class Ningxia/Henan (2001)

Non-agri

Livestock

Crop

485412356209>4000

4240114930832500~4000

333310581775878~2500

2121773715625~878 (Poor 2)

312780381<625 (Poor1)

Share of non-agri. labor

Share of income (%)Per capita income (yuan)

Income group

HH Characteristics by Income Class (2001)

Cultivated

land/hh(ha)

Labor education (year)

Number of

labors/hh

0.220.76.33.03.4>4000

0.180.76.02.93.92500~4000

0.150.66.43.04.3878~2500

0.090.77.03.04.9625~878 (Poor 2)

0.180.75.42.94.3<625 (Poor1)

Cultivated land/person (ha)

HH size

Income group


Basin Diagnostic Tour

� Water scarcity considered the largest problem for irrigation

� Water fees and water quality are also important

� Increased competition with urban-industrial and environmental water uses

� Zero tillage as one strategy to save water and labor, adoption for maize and wheat


Basin Diagnostic Tour

� Most farmers are part-time [small land area, many non-farm employment opportunities]

� Climate change potential future threat –experience of more extreme cold events during winter and reduced runoff despite stable rainfall

� Relatively low poverty in Henan and Shandong provinces [downstream basin]

Pathway out of Poverty

(1)(1)(1)- Irrigation availability

222Agricultural profits

(3)(3)(3)- Output/input price ratio

(2)(2)(2)- Marketing (output)

444Transportation

333Education

111Non-farm employment

HenanShaanxiNingxia

Who Uses Water more Efficiently and Effectively?

0000

1000100010001000

2000200020002000

3000300030003000

4000400040004000

5000500050005000

6000600060006000

7000700070007000

8000800080008000

NingxiaNingxiaNingxiaNingxia ShaanxiShaanxiShaanxiShaanxi HenanHenanHenanHenan

Unit: m3/ha

Water Allocation Priority

444Environment

332Agriculture

223Industry

111Domestic

HenanShaanxiNingxia


Review paper on past and current interventions

� From water supply to water demand management

� From resettlement (started anew in areas with extreme water shortages)

� ..To water use rights trading (not exactly..)

� From agricultural land tax to direct transfers for farmers

� And a variety of water-conservation and expansion technologies (plastic sheets, water harvesting, zero till, SRI, etc. etc.)

� The government is willing to try anything that works and does not interfere with too many vested interests

Low cost Reach Environmental

impact

Poverty

impact

Food

security

Water pollution

control ��

Yield

improvement,

including for

drought stress

��

Water

management ��

---in particular

Water rights and

markets

�� /? ��

----ID

management

support

�� /? ��

----Water pricing �� /? ��

Water

monitoring

system ��

Resettlement ��

Off-farm

opportunity

development

�� ?

South-to-North

transfer �� ? ��

Irrigation

infrastructure

investment

(Canals, etc.)

�� / ?

On-farm

irrigation

technology

investment

�� / ?

Virtual water ��

Education/Family

planning ��

HIG

H-IM

PA

CT

INT

ER

VE

NT

ION

SHIGH-IMPACT INTERVENTIONS

Low cost Reach Environmental

impact

Poverty

impact

Food

security

Water pollution

control ��

Yield

improvement,

including for

drought stress

��

Water

management ��

---in particular

Water rights and

markets

�� /? ��

----ID

management

support

�� /? ��

----Water pricing �� /? ��

Water

monitoring

system ��

Resettlement ��

Off-farm

opportunity

development

�� ?

South-to-North

transfer �� ? ��

Irrigation

infrastructure

investment

(Canals, etc.)

�� / ?

On-farm

irrigation

technology

investment

�� / ?

Virtual water ��

Education/Family

planning ��

HIGH-IMPACT INTERVENTIONS


Study of Alternative Interventions

� Modeling tools (YRCC HYDROLOGIC MODEL, SWAT, MAS)

� Study other strategies qualitatively

� And others combining the basin model with IMPACT or CAPSIM

69

52 general agents

5 reservoir agents

3 ecosystem agents

Multi-Agent System Model

A1

A2A3

A4

A5

R1 A1

2

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3

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1

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0

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A5

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2

Ai

Ri

General agents with source flow

Reservoir agentsMainstream

Mainstream inflow source

Tributary

Tributary inflow sourceAi General agents

E3

Ei Ecosystem agents

E2

A1

A2A3

A4

A5

R1 A1

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R2 A1

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0

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R3

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R4

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R5

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E1

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Ai

Ri

General agents with source flow

Reservoir agentsMainstream

Mainstream inflow source

Tributary

Tributary inflow sourceAi General agents

E3

Ei Ecosystem agents

E2


Yellow River BasinMAS-Modeling

Unmanaged

Scenario

YRCC

Water Right

Water

Market

YRCC

Water

Permit

Apply MAS framework to YRB


Conclusions

� Highly water scarce basin, but still room for water conservation in irrigation and elsewhere

� Key for water conservation will be enhanced policy and institutions, including for WQ

� Some scope for further yield improvement

� Limited scope for irrigation expansion, constant agricultural water use policy, policy to avoid further declines in agricultural area (122 million mu red line)


1. Relation between water and poverty in the Yellow River Basin (Akhter, Jinxia, and Wahid)

2. Impact of climate change on water and food supply in the Yellow River Basin (Zongxue, Tingju)• First journal article in print in Chinese Journal

• Contribution to 2nd Forum and to 5th Yellow River Forum

3. Role of water trading for alleviating water stress in the Yellow River Basin (Yunpeng, Claudia, and Yan)

FINAL RESEARCH PAPERS


4. Water productivity under water scarcity in the Yellow River Basin (Ximing, Yi-Chen, Jianshi)

5. Drought risk management in the Yellow River Basin (Tingju)

6. Water supply and demand and implications for poverty alleviation in the YRB (Zongxue, Jingzong, and Tingju)

7. High-impact interventions for the YRB (Yunpeng, Claudia, Jinxia)



8. Application of Multi-Agent System (MAS) Modeling to the YRB (Ximing and others)

9. Drought risk management in the Yellow River Basin (Tingju)

10.The role of institutions in alleviating water poverty in the YRB (Jinxia and others)

11.Book chapter for Basin Focal Program Study


Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity

Technology

Transcript of Yellow River Basin: Living with Scarcity