XX-1Green Infrastructure and Sustainable Communities

The Challenges of Unsustainable Growth

José L. Fernández-Solís

Modules 04 & 05

http://gapminder.org/

On Technology / Sobre la tecnología

“The essence of modern technology starts human beings upon the way of THAT

revealing through which reality everywhere, more or less distinctly,

becomes resource” Heidegger (1954)

“toda realidad se converte en recurso”

A new Paradigm: Numbers and Time / un nuevo paradigma: números y tiempo

Very Large Numbers

Long Tern Horizon

Billions

Millions

Thousands

Centuries

DecadesYears

Forces Behind Construction / las fuerzas detrás de la construcción

tc= 35 approx

6.5 B / 2005

ExponentialsPopulation Dynamics

10.0

2.5

5.0

20.0

year

Pop

ulat

ion

Gro

wth

2000

2050

1950

2100

?

Theoretical scenario of population demographics moving from needs to wants

AFFLUENCEPOPULATION

http://www.gapminder.org/downloads/presentations/

Growth in Income, Population and Technology / crecimiento en entradas, poblacion y technologia

Growth in incomes was accompanied by unprecedented increases in population and

exponential increases in the rate of scientifi c discoveries.

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

po

pu

lati

on

s (

milli

on

s)

time (years)

PCs

nuclear energy

discovery of DNA

penicillin

invention of automobile invention of telephone electrification germ theory

beginning of railroads invention of Watt engine beginning of industrial revolution beginning of 2nd agricultural revolution

Source: Fogel, Robert. 1999. “Catching Up with the Economy.” American Economic Review 89(1) (March): 1–21.

Note: There is usually a lag between the invention of a process or a machine and its general application to production. “Beginning” means the earliest stage of this diffusion process.

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

Popu

latio

n (M

illio

ns)

Sustainability and

Exponential Growth /

Sostenibilidad y el crecimiento exponencial

Natural Sustainability – restrained growth

Natural Sustainability -Negated by human intervention

Exponentialoid Unsustainable Growth to be restrained by Artificial sustainability forces

China Construction Activity Growth / actividad de la construcción en la China

Mil

lion

s of

squ

are

met

ers

per

year

1000

800

600

400

300

200

100

Figura 1. China Construction Floor Space Thompson Datastream FT 5/31/08

1996

20

00

2005

20

07

2010

tc = doubling times /tiempo para duplicar

• Exponential growth:– Population (tc = 35 yrs)

– Affluence (tc = 10 – 15 yrs)• Air passengers (Boeing, 07) triple by 2030• Container shipment (International, 06) double in 10 yrs.

– Construction in general (as of 2006)• Global trends (tc = 15 yrs)

• USA trends (tc = 25 yrs)

– Resource consumption (tc = 7 yrs)

– Total Emissions generation (tc = 1 yrs)

Per Capita Consumption (2003) / consumo de electricidad por capita(Approx. population) / kilowatt hour• USA (300M) 14,057.0 kWh (1.0)• France 7,585.5 kWh (0.5)• Germany 6,900.0 kWh (0.4)• China (1,600M) 1,378.5 kWh (0.1)• Bangladesh 594.0 kWh (0.05)

http://www.gapminder.org/ Human development trends/carbon Dioxide/Population/Size carbon dioxide/select

Affluence: Evolution of Global GDP and Per Capita GDP

Source: Data from: Maddison, Angus. 2001. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris: OECD.

GDP levels ($,000 Billions)

A.D. 1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1900 1950 2000 per capita GDP

1990 international PPP dollars

GDP per capita ($,000)

Reso

urce

Con

sum

ption

/ e

l co

nsum

o de

recu

rsos

Consumtion and Depletion of Crude Iron Ore

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Copper Consumption and Depletion

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consumption

recovery

depletion

reserve

Aluminum

Theoretical consumption and depletion of resources

Re-cap / re-capitulación

• The forces behind construction are related to exponential growth in:– Population – Affluence

• Construction exponential growth are related to exponential growth in:– Resource consumption – Emissions generation

Emissions Data / data de emisiones

• China, added electrical power capacity– 2004 of England (one coal plant/2 weeks)– 2005 of Spain (one coal plant/1.5 weeks)– 2006 of France (one coal plant/ week)– 2007 of Germany ( 1.5 coal plants / week)– Now China is exporting quick coal plant

construction to India

Emissions Data / data de emisiones

• To eliminate global emissions from current and future power generation needs alone, we need– Approximately, one nuclear power plant every

week from now until the end of 2070 (FT).– IEA (International Energy Agency 6/6/08:

• 32 nuclear power plants yearly• 17,500 wind turbines yearly• Outfit 35 coal fired power stations with carbon

capture and storage equipment yearly

205

720

06

12

34

56

78

9

11

10

12

Pacala and Socolow 2007, Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies

Wedges

(1 b

illio

n t

ons

of

carb

on e

ach

) M

in.

12

Fossil Fuel Emissions Generation / Emisión de Gases

Emissions Generation / concentraciónes atmosférica

400

420

Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WGI

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/

Degree of climate change What is happening up to now – Land

Figure TS.20. (Top) Records of Northern Hemisphere temperature variation during the last 1300 years with 12 reconstructions using multiple climate proxy records shown in colour and instrumental records shown in black. (Middle and Bottom) Locations of temperature-sensitive proxy records with data back to AD 1000 and AD 1500 (tree rings: brown triangles; boreholes: black circles; ice core/ice boreholes: blue stars; other records including low-resolution records: purple squares). Data sources are given in Table 6.1, Figure 6.10 and are discussed in Chapter 6. {Figures 6.10 and 6.11}

Degree of climate change What is happening up to now – Potential Precipitation

Rainfall is increasing

Figure TS.8

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Figures/AR4WG1_Ch03-Figs_2007-10-23.ppt#269,14,Figure 3.13

Degree of climate change What is happening up to now -- Precipitation

Texas has areas that had largest decrease in continental US

Degree of climate change What is happening up to now -- Precipitation

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Figures/AR4WG1_Ch03-Figs_2007-10-23.ppt#296,40,Figure 3.39

Rainfall became more concentrated and Texas again has such areas

Palmer drought indexchange 1900-2002, Regional map and graph of global averageTexas shows lesser indexDid not graph last 20 years

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Figures/AR4WG1_Ch03-Figs_2007-10-23.ppt#300,44,FAQ 3.2, Figure 1

Degree of climate change What is happening up to now -- Drought

Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WGI http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/

Degree of climate change What is happening up to now – Hurricanes

Figure TS.11. Tropical Atlantic (10°N–20°N) sea surface temperature annual anomalies (°C) in the region of Atlantic hurricane formation, relative to the 1961 to 1990 mean.

Available observational evidence indicates that regional changes in climate, particularly increases in temperature, have already affected a diverse set of physical and biological systems in many parts of the world.

Observed changes include Shrinkage of glaciers and sea ice Snow cover has decreasedThawing of permafrost, Later freezing and earlier break-up of ice on lakes/riversLengthening of mid- to high-latitude growing seasonsPoleward and altitudinal shifts of plant and animal ranges, Declines of some plant and animal populations, Earlier flowering of trees, emergence of insects, and egg-laying in birdsGlobal average sea level has risen and ocean heat content has increased

Degree of climate change What is happening up to now -- Other

IPCC (1995) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.”

IPCC (2001) “Most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (>66%) to be attributable to human activities.”

IPCC (2007) ”Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (>90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human emission caused) greenhouse gas concentrations.”

Degree of climate change - why is this happening

Source : U.S. National Assessment/ http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/images/Greenhouse-s.jpg.

Some gases, like carbon dioxide (CO), trap heat in the atmosphere by absorbing longwave radiation while letting the Sun's energy pass through. The transparent roof and walls of a greenhouse allow in the sunlight while keeping in the heat. Since these gases act similarly in the atmosphere, we call them greenhouse gases.

Degree of climate change - why is this happening

Pre industrial - 275 Counting Non CO2

1985 - 345 this is increase almost doubles2007 - 380+http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html

Degree of climate change / cambio de clima

Degree of climate change What is happening up to now – Temperature since 1979

Texas in a relatively rapidly warming area within continental US

Rates of change accelerating as time progresses (colored lines)

http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Figures/AR4WG1_Ch03-Figs_2007-10-23.ppt#299,43,FAQ 3.1, Figure 1

Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WGI http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/

Degree of climate change What is happening up to now – Ocean Temp.

Figure TS.16

Ocean also shows temperature increase

Temperature, Atmospheric CO2 and Peak Year Estimate

/ temperatura, CO2 atmosférica y estimado de año máximo

Mean stabilized temp. increase above pre industrial level, ºC / Temperatura en Centígrados

2.0 to 2.8 2.8 to 3.2 3.2 to 4.0 4.0 to 6.1

Atmospheric CO2 equivalent concentrations (ppm)

445 to 535 535 to 590 590 to 710 710 to 1130

Latest year in which CO2 emissions must peak / Año

2015 to 2020 2010 to 2030 2020 to 2060 2080 to 2090

Annual Greenhouse Gas Emission by Sector

CO2 and Temperature Stabilization

Source : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WGI http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/

Degree of climate change What is happening up to now -- Other

http://www.whrc.org/resources/online_publications/warming_earth/scientific_evidence.htm

Why is this happening / ¿Porque esta pasando?

CO2 and temperature linked but does not lead

• Less water

Degree of climate change - What is projected

Texas in relatively severely affected area

Data / Indicadores de ¿ porque esta pasando?

• Very likely that heat waves will be more intense, more frequent and longer lasting

• Precipitation generally increases but with general decreases in the subtropics

• Precipitation intensity is projected to increase but there would be longer periods between rainfall events.

• Tendency for drying of mid-continent during summer, indicating a greater risk of droughts in those regions.

• Sea level projected to rise 1999 and 2099 by 0.18 to 0.59 m.• Likely increase in hurricane peak wind intensities - an increase in the

numbers of the most intense.• Fewer mid-latitude storms- poleward shift of storm tracks• Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) – Gulf Stream will

slow down

Degree of climate change - What is projected

Demand Loop /

Circulo de demanda

CO2 Ratios: Buildings 40% Others 60%

Consumtion and Depletion of Crude Iron Ore

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Copper Consumption and Depletion

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t

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t

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depletion

reserve

Aluminum

Theoretical consumption and depletion of resources

Theoretical Resource Consumption/Depletion

Global Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning 1750 - 2005

t c = 30 years estimated

t c = 1 year actual 20,000

28,000

10,000

2005 Legend Interacts with

Influence

Partially Determine

Results Fig. 3.9 Worldview: Building Demand and Emissions,

Resource Consumption, Climate Change

Additional Building demand: 1 DU/6 persons 1 Other/6 persons

Climate Change

Environment

Catastrophes 2004: 395 disasters 244,500 deaths 157 M affected Etc.

Building demand: 1 DU/6 persons 1 Other/6 persons

From: Fig. 3.7 & 3.8

From Fig. 4.3 & 4.4

Fig. 4.5 World-view: Building Demand and Emissions, Resource Consumption, Climate Change

POPULATION

AFFLUENCE

Global Population Estimates 20% Ratios 80% 5 - 10 % Migration Needs Wants 20% Consumption 80%

First time technology Other than first time technology

Time

Item N

No

Nt

t t + x

Nt + x

S = 1/Nt er (t+x)

Fig. 8. Sustainability as the inverse of an exponentialoid curve

N = No er t

Resource Consumption and Emissions Generation

Legend Interacts with

Influence

Partially Determine

Results

Fig. 3.10 Elements of Industrial change and exponentialoid growth

Global Population Estimates 80% Ratios 20% 5 - 10 % Migration Needs Wants 20% Consumption 80%

EoI expon

enti

al gro

wth

Elements that

influence exponential

growth

Source : IPCC AR4t

Climate models predict increasing emissions will cause a temp increase

What is projected / Projecciones

Taming the Exponentialoid / domando la exponencial

B

C

Time

Item N

No

Nt

t t + x

Nt + x

S = 1/Nt er (t+x)

Fig. 8. Sustainability as the inverse of an exponentialoid curve

N = No er t

A

A New Design Paradigm

Time Line = Direction

Qua

ntity

= M

agni

tude

Long term horizon i.e. hundreds of years ≈ ∞

Extremely large numbers i.e. billions ≈ ∞

What happens when we do something for an indefinite period of time?

What happens when we do something in extremely large number?

Can we increase numbers indefinitely and for an indefinite time?

Framework of Assumptions and Facts shared between the Artificial and Natural Worlds

Energy

Limited

Un-

limite

d

Supp

ly

Capital

Un-li

mite

d Limited

Supply

Assumption

Assumption

Fact

Natural World Artificial WorldNatural World

Need: A common currency

Yesterday: Independent

INDEPENDENT

resources waste

Today: Grid

GRID DEPENDENT

resources

waste

Future: Hybrid

HYBRID

waste & resources

waste & resources

Rebates

Subsidies

Carbon Trading Schemes

Photo-voltaic

Hydrogen power generation

Bio-gas

Day

Night

From Independent to Grid to Hybrid

HYBRID

waste & resources

waste & resources

Option 2Option 1

Very Large Numbers

Small Numbers

Option 1 small scale / very large numbers

Option 2 small numbers / very large scale

Small Scale Very Large Scales

The Car Paradigm

New Paradigm?

Situation / el principio precaucionario

“Situations in life often permit no delay; and when we cannot determine the method which

is certainly best, we must follow the one which is probably the best… if the method

selected is not indeed a good one, at last the reasons for selecting it are excellent.”

Rene Descartes quoted by Koen, 2003, “Discussion of THE method,” all-is-heuristics

Q & A / conclusiones, preguntas y respuestas

Our current form of economic development is not sustainable

This situation will likely reach crisis proportions in 10-20 years

Issues of sustainability are changing the way business and government operate

What needs to change to tame exponential growth?