XVIII General Assembly of Ministers and High Level Authorities on Housing and Urbanization in Latin...

XVIII General Assembly of Ministers and XVIII General Assembly of Ministers and High Level Authorities on Housing and High Level Authorities on Housing and Urbanization in Latin America and the Urbanization in Latin America and the

Caribbean (MINURVI)Caribbean (MINURVI)

Montego Bay, JamaicaMontego Bay, Jamaica15-17 de julio 200915-17 de julio 2009

Sustainable Development and Human Settlements Division Sustainable Development and Human Settlements Division ECLACECLAC

Raquel SzalachmanRaquel Szalachman

Social Expenditure on Social Expenditure on Housing and Urban Housing and Urban

Development for some Development for some Latin American and Latin American and Caribbean countriesCaribbean countries

Presentation:Presentation:

I. General information

II. Regional Panorama

III. Main findings of the study: Comparative Analysis

IV. Final comments

I. General informationI. General information• Constant or diminishing rates for housing social

spending as a proportion of GDP• Different registrations styles and different concepts

included• In 2006 MINURVI, Ministers and High Level

Authorities, established the will to know the real value of housing and urbanism spending.

• The first approach was through a survey sent to the Housing Ministers

• We found out that the real expenditure source was at National Accounting and at the Budget Offices and/or General Comptrollers.

• We started with a pilot study for only 3 countries• In this occasion we have extended it to 11 countries,

which means 8 additional countries.

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

Objectives Policy Tools

RESOURCESRESOURCESNeedsNeeds

SOCIAL SPENDINGSOCIAL SPENDING RequirementsRequirements

REDISTRIBUTIVE IMPACTSREDISTRIBUTIVE IMPACTS

Regional PanoramaRegional Panorama

Regional GDP was up by 4.2% in 2008, completing a Regional GDP was up by 4.2% in 2008, completing a sixth consecutive year of economic growthsixth consecutive year of economic growth

1,31,3

2,52,6

2,93,0

3,24,04,0

4,34,8

5,15,3

5,86,2

6,57,0

8,99,2

9,8

2.3

5.5

4.2

4.1

0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 9,0 10,0 11,0 12,0

HaitiMexico

The CaribbeanEl Salvador

ColombiaCosta RicaNicaragua

ChileHonduras

GuatemalaCentral America

Latin AmericaCuba

Venezuela (Bol.Brazil

DominicanSouth America

ParaguayBolivia (Pl. St. of)

EcuadorArgentina

UruguayPanama

Peru

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GDP GROWTH, 2008(Percentages)

Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de cifras oficiales.

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Growth has been coupled with improvements in labour-market indicators

50,0

51,0

52,0

53,0

54,0

55,0

56,0

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

6,00

7,00

8,00

9,00

10,00

11,00

12,00

Employment rate (left axis) Unemployment rate (right axis)Fuente: Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), sobre la base de cifras oficiales.

In 2009, the region’s growth is expected to slow dramatically

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: GROWTH FORECASTS FOR 2009 (%)

-2.0-1.0

-0.5-0.5

-0.30.00.00.1

0.50.50.5

1.01.0

1.51.51.51.5

2.53.03.0

3.54.0

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

MéxicoBrazil

Costa RicaParaguay

Latin America and the CaribbeanChile

EcuadorThe Caribbean

El SalvadorHaiti

ColombiaVenezuela (Bol.Rep.of)

NicaraguaArgentina

GuatemalaHonduras

Dominican RepUruguay

Bolivia (Pl.St.of)CubaPeru

Panama


ECLAC forecasts a growth rate of -ECLAC forecasts a growth rate of -1.7% for 20091.7% for 2009

GDP growth

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%


The 6 biggest economies of Latin America have experienced a 30% fall in

exports in 1QLATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: REAL GROWTH RATE OF QUARTERLY EXPORTS

(% change between Qt and Qt-4)

-20,0%

-15,0%

-10,0%

-5,0%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

I II III IV I II III IV I

2007 2008 2009

ARGENTINA BRASIL

CHILE MEXICO

PERU COLOMBIA


In a number of countries In a number of countries remittances are showing a major remittances are showing a major

halthalt

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1Q 2007 2Q 2007 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 1Q 2008 2Q 2008 3Q 2008 4Q 2008 1Q 2009

Guatemala El SalvadorMexico NicaraguaJamaica Rep.DominicanaEcuador Colombia

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: WORKERS REMMITANCES(Annual percentage increase)


The Caribbean and Central America will suffer the The Caribbean and Central America will suffer the most from the expected drop in tourism revenuesmost from the expected drop in tourism revenues

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

South AmericaArgentina

BoliviaBrazilChile

ColombiaEcuador

ParaguayPeru

UruguayVenezuela (Bol. Rep. of)

Central AmericaCosta RicaEl SalvadorGuatemala

HaitiHondurasNicaragua

PanamaDominican Republic

MexicoCaribbeanBahamasBarbados

BelizeDominicaGranadaGuyana

JamaicaSaint Kitts and Nevis

Saint LuciaSaint Vincent and the

SurinameTrinidad and Tobago

Latin America and the Caribbean

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: TOURISM-RELATED SERVICE EXPORTS, 2007(Percentages of GDP)

40.8%


Main Findings of the Study:Comparative Analyses

Housing and Related Services Social Housing and Related Services Social Expenditure as a percentage of GDPExpenditure as a percentage of GDP

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

0.80%

0.90%

1.00%

Honduras

Perú

E P Bolivia

Paraguay

El Salvador

Costa Rica

Promedio

Argentina

Guatemala

Chile

Jamaica

Panamá

% del PIB

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Urbanization Social Expenditure as a Urbanization Social Expenditure as a percentage of GDPpercentage of GDP

0,00% 0,05% 0,10% 0,15% 0,20% 0,25% 0,30%

Costa Rica

Paraguay

Perú

Estado Plurin de Bolivia

El Salvador

Honduras

Argentina

Jamaica

Promedio

Chile

Guatemala

Panamá

% del PIB

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0,51

0,48

Social Community Expenditure as Social Community Expenditure as a percentage of GDPa percentage of GDP

0,00% 0,05% 0,10% 0,15% 0,20% 0,25% 0,30% 0,35% 0,40% 0,45% 0,50%

Costa Rica

Honduras


Guatemala

Paraguay

Chile

Panamá

Perú

Argentina

Promedio

El Salvador

Jamaica

% del PIB

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0,51

Water supplying expenditure as a Water supplying expenditure as a percentage of GDPpercentage of GDP

0,00% 0,05% 0,10% 0,15% 0,20% 0,25% 0,30% 0,35% 0,40% 0,45% 0,50%

Panamá

Argentina

Honduras

El Salvador


Perú

Paraguay

Chile

Promedio

Guatemala

Jamaica

Costa Rica

% del PIB

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Public lighting systemPublic lighting systemexpenditure as a percentage of expenditure as a percentage of

GDPGDP

0,00% 0,01% 0,02% 0,03% 0,04% 0,05% 0,06% 0,07% 0,08% 0,09% 0,10%

Costa Rica

El Salvador

Honduras

Jamaica

Paraguay

Perú

Chile

Argentina

Guatemala

Promedio

Panamá


% del PIB

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0,27

0,16

Housing and Community Services Housing and Community Services Expenditure as a percentage of GDPExpenditure as a percentage of GDP

0,00% 0,05% 0,10% 0,15% 0,20% 0,25% 0,30% 0,35% 0,40% 0,45% 0,50%

Costa Rica

Jamaica

Honduras


Perú

Guatemala

Paraguay

El Salvador

Promedio

Panamá

Argentina

Chile

% del PIB

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0,58

0,55

0,60

Country comparisonsCountry comparisons

0

0,001

0,002

0,003

0,004

0,005

0,006

0,007

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% d

el P

IB

Urbanismo Abastecimiento de agua

Alumbrado público Vivienda y servicios comunitarios

0

0,0005

0,001

0,0015

0,002

0,0025

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% d

el P

IB

Urbanismo Desarrollo comunitariosAbastecimiento de agua Alumbrado PúblicoVivienda y servicios comunitarios

0,00%

0,02%

0,04%

0,06%

0,08%

0,10%

0,12%

0,14%

0,16%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% d

e P

IB

Urbanismo Desarrollo Comunitario

Abastecimiento de agua Vivienda y servicios comunitarios

Panama

Bolivia Guatemala

0

0,001

0,002

0,003

0,004

0,005

0,006

2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008

% d

el P

IB

Urbanismo Desarrollo comunitario

Abastecimeinto de agua Vivienda y servicios comunitarios

Jamaica


0

0,00005

0,0001

0,00015

0,0002

0,00025

0,0003

0,00035

0,0004

0,00045

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% d

el P

IB

Urbanismo Desarrollo comunitarioAbastecimiento de agua Alumbrado públicoVivienda y servicios comunitarios

0

0,0001

0,0002

0,0003

0,0004

0,0005

0,0006

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

% d

el P

IB

Urbanismo Abastecimiento de agua Vivienda y servicios comunitarios

0

0,001

0,002

0,003

0,004

0,005

0,006

2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008

% d

el

PIB

Urbanismo Desarrollo comunitario

Abastecimeinto de agua Vivienda y servicios comunitarios

Paraguay Perú

Honduras

0

0,001

0,002

0,003

0,004

0,005

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Abastecimiento de agua Vivienda y servicios relacionados

Costa Rica


0

0,001

0,002

0,003

0,004

0,005

0,006

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Abastecimiento de agua Alumbrado públicoDesarrollo comunitario UrbanizaciónVivienda y servicios comunitarios n.e.p.

0

0,001

0,002

0,003

0,004

0,005

0,006

0,007

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Urbanización Desarrollo comunitarioAbastecimiento de agua Alumbrado públicoVivienda y servicios comunitarios n.e.p.

The tree countries of the Pilot Study

Argentina

Chile

0

0,0005

0,001

0,0015

0,002

0,0025

0,003

0,0035

0,004

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Abastecimiento de agua Desarrollo comunitario

Urbanización Vivienda y servicios comunitarios n.e.p.

El Salvador

FINAL COMMENTSFINAL COMMENTS• It is possible to use a common methodology• But, the contact with the Budget Offices or Comptroller are

absolutely necessary in order to check the web information.

• This was mainly an statistic exercise in order to find out what are the real expenses

• Therefore, some important subjects weren’t analyzed:– Quality and efficiency of the expenditure– Expenditure sustainability– Redistribution impact

• Next steps: - Income sources (in or outside the country)- Effort made by the own families for housing access- Redistributive impact of the social expenditure

FINAL COMMENTSFINAL COMMENTS• Verification of the information was very

difficult• Countries that were not included have no

information on their web pages and it was impossible to contact them

• If there is some interest, the methodology could be transmitted to the different countries of the region.

• Next step: - Income sources (own or external)- Family efforts for social housing access- Redistribution impact of expenditure

FINAL COMMENTSFINAL COMMENTS• It is important to know the amount of housing and

urban development expenditure, but isolated this knowledge is only an accounting exercise.

• What is more important is to analyze the expenditure efficiency.

• This means that it is necessary to know the amount of the housing and urban development needs (deficit).

• As a matter of fact if the housing and urbanization expenditure is high or low will depend on the housing and urbanization requirements. Which means the next step should be to estimate housing and urbanization deficits.

THANK YOU VERY THANK YOU VERY MUCHMUCH

Raquel Szalachman Raquel Szalachman Sustainable Development and Human Settlements DivisionSustainable Development and Human Settlements Division

CEPALCEPAL

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