Xrisk 101: (2013) Existential Risk for Interstellar Advocates (w/Notes)

( Xrisk 101 )Existential Risk for Interstellar Advocates

Heath Rezabek, MLISIcarus Interstellar / Long Now Foundation (Intern)

[email protected] / [email protected]

J. N. [email protected]

Starship Congress 2013August 15-‐18, 2013. Dallas, Texas.

ORIGINS / © Lucy West 2012 / Used by Permission

Xrisk 101: Existential Risk for Interstellar Advocates

Heath RezabekNick NielsenStarship Congress 2013

... (Xrisk 101) is divided into two parts.


( Xrisk 101 )

Xrisk FundamentalsVessel Project Update

Heath Rezabek

Xrisk and Far Future CivilizationNick Nielsen

(Xrisk 101) is divided into two parts.

In the first, I will cover the fundamentals of Xrisk, and update on the Vessel project, a framework for preserving the cultural, scientific, and biological record.

In the second, Nick Nielsen will explore the longer term implications of overcoming Xrisk for the future of civilization.

... Though discussed in other terms, Xrisk was a key concern and priority for the DARPA 2011 starship workshop.


Creating a legacy for the human species

Backing up the Earth’s biosphere

Enabling long-‐term survival in the face of catastrophic disasters on Earth

-‐ DARPA 2011 starship workshop report

Though discussed in other terms, Xrisk was a key concern and priority for the DARPA 2011 starship workshop. In its January 2011 report, that workshop prioritized “creating a legacy for the human species, backing up the Earth’s biosphere, and enabling long-‐term survival in the face of catastrophic disasters on Earth."

At the 100YSS 2012 Symposium, I presented a synthesis of strategies to address all three of these goals at once, called Vessel. Before updating on the Vessel project, I want to talk first about Existential Risk, what it includes, and why we should prioritize finding ways to meet its challenge.

... Existential Risk denotes, simply enough, risks to our existence.

STAR MAP / © Debra Joiner 2012 / Used by Permission

Existential Risk

Existential Risk denotes, simply enough, risks to our existence. Existential Risk encompasses both Extinction Risk and Global Catastrophic Risk.

... Nick Bostrom, Director for the Future of Humanity Institute, defines Existential Risk this way in a key paper we’ll cover throughout...


An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.

-‐ Nick Bostrom, Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority (2013) goo.gl/LhxQ1

Nick Bostrom, Director for the Future of Humanity Institute, defines Existential Risk this way in a key paper we’ll cover throughout:

An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life, or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.

As we can see, small personal risks are down in the lower left, while situations of widespread suffering such as global tyranny are in the middle as Global Catastrophic Risks. Finally, the destruction of life’s long term potential defines Existential Risk, in the upper right.

... Xrisk has become a popular shorthand for this whole spectrum of risks. We can see signs of it emerging as a priority for various space-‐related efforts.


( Xrisk )

Xrisk has become a popular shorthand for this whole spectrum of risks. We can see signs of it emerging as a priority for various space-‐related efforts.

... One of the most popular images of Xrisk today is that of a sterilizing asteroid strike.


( Xrisk )

One of the most popular images of Xrisk today is that of a sterilizing asteroid strike. And asteroids play a big role in some of the most visible efforts in space industry today, such as the ARKYD telescope or NASA’s asteroid initiative. Specialists sometimes see unpredicted cultural or technological Xrisks as even more urgent.

... Starship Congress has its eye on some pretty long-‐term goals. And Earth provides our only space and time to work towards them.


Starship Congress has its eye on some pretty long-‐term goals. And Earth provides our only space and time to work towards them. On that basis alone, the challenge of Xrisk must be answered.

But setting aside our own goals, what are the stakes? How many lives have there been, or could yet be if extinction is avoided? Nick Bostrom has run some interesting numbers.

... To calculate the loss associated with an existential catastrophe, we must consider how much value would come to exist in its absence.


To calculate the loss associated with an existential catastrophe, we must consider how much value would come to exist in its absence.

It turns out that the ultimate potential for Earth-‐originating intelligent life is literally astronomical.

-‐ Nick Bostrom, Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority (2013)

To calculate the loss associated with an existential catastrophe, we must consider how much value would come to exist in its absence.

It turns out that the ultimate potential for Earth-‐originating intelligent life is literally astronomical.

How so?

... First we need a standard for measurement. Let’s start with the total number of humans ever to have lived on Earth.


How many human lives have ever been?

First we need a standard for measurement. Let’s start with the total number of humans ever to have lived on Earth.

... Wolfram Alpha lists the total world population as 107.6 billion people over time. The current global population is 7.13 billion.


107.6 billion people(Wolfram Alpha, 2013)

Current Global Population7.13 billion people

(Wolfram Alpha, 2013)

Wolfram Alpha lists the total world population as 107.6 billion people over time. The current global population is 7.13 billion.

... If we leave out the current population, we get 100 billion -‐-‐ About the number of neurons in a single human brain.


107.6 billion people(Wolfram Alpha, 2013)

≈ 100 billion neuronsin the human brain

(Wolfram Alpha, 2013)

If we leave out the current population, we get 100 billion -‐-‐ About the number of neurons in a single human brain.

... 100 billion lives.

100 billion lives

100 billion lives.

... One Pale Blue Dot.

100 billion lives

≈ 1 Pale Blue Dot.

One Pale Blue Dot.

... Here’s Carl Sagan on that famous image of Earth from afar:

≈ 1 Pale Blue Dot.

PALE BLUE DOT / NASA / JPL 1990

Here’s Carl Sagan on that famous image of Earth from afar:

Consider again that dot.

... That's here. That's home. That's us.

That's here. That's home. That's us.

On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives.

~ Carl Sagan

in Pale Blue Dot: A Vision of the Human Future in Space

Consider again that dot.

PALE BLUE DOT / NASA / JPL 1990

That's here. That's home. That's us.

On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives.

100 billion lives is our basic unit of measure.

... Now; How much value would come to exist if our future potential is never cut short?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pale_Blue_Dot:_A_Vision_of_the_Human_Future_in_Space

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pale_Blue_Dot:_A_Vision_of_the_Human_Future_in_Space


How many human lives might there yet be,

in the fullness of time?

Now; How much value would come to exist if our future potential is never cut short?

... 10^16 -‐-‐ 10 million billion -‐-‐ is one estimate of the potential number of future lives on Earth alone,


10 million billion10 000 000 000 000 000


1016

Not to Scale.

10^16 -‐-‐ 10 million billion -‐-‐ is one estimate of the potential number of future lives on Earth alone, if only 1 billion lived on it sustainably for the 1 billion years it’s projected to remain habitable.

But if we consider the possibility of the spread of life beyond Earth, or synthetic minds and lives yet to come, Bostrom’s estimate grows vast:

... 10^52 potential lives to come. 100 million x 100 billion x 100 billion x 100 billion x 100 billion


1052

Not to Scale.

10 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000


100 million x 100 billion x 100 billion x 100 billion x 100 billion

10^52 potential lives to come. 100 million x 100 billion x 100 billion x 100 billion x 100 billion

... This means that reducing the chances of Xrisk by a mere 1 billionth of 1 billionth of 1 percent...


Statistically, reducing the chances of Xrisk by a mere 1 billionth of 1 billionth of 1 percent...

Not to Scale.

This means that reducing the chances of Xrisk by a mere 1 billionth of 1 billionth of 1 percent...

...

... is worth 100 billion billion lives.


...is worth 100 billion billion lives.

1020

Not to Scale.

...is worth 100 billion billion lives.

With just a slight shift in priorities, we can hugely boost the chances of life achieving its full future potential by working to enhance its prospects today.

... Let’s look at Bostrom’s definition again:




Let’s look at Bostrom’s definition again:

An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-‐originating intelligent life, or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development.

... Notice that fragment -‐ “... destruction of its potential for desirable future development.”




Survival alone is not enough.

A surviving society may be brutalized, stagnant, or diminished irreparably, unable to aspire or to build itself anew.

Notice that fragment -‐ “... destruction of its potential for desirable future development.”

Survival alone is not enough. In some cases, a surviving society may be brutalized, stagnant, or diminished irreparably, unable to aspire or to build itself anew.

This brings us to two subtypes of Xrisk as crucial as extinction itself.

... They both fall into the realm of Global Catastrophic Risks.


Permanent StagnationHumanity survives but never reaches technological maturity. Subclasses: Unrecovered Collapse, Plateauing, Recurrent Collapse

Flawed RealizationHumanity reaches technological maturity but in a way that is dismally and irremediably flawed. Subclasses: Unconsummated Realization, Ephemeral Realization

They both fall into the realm of Global Catastrophic Risks.

Permanent Stagnation -‐ Humanity survives but never reaches technological maturity or interstellar civilization.

Flawed Realization -‐ Humanity reaches technological maturity but in a way that is irredeemably flawed.

Pop culture has a working knowledge of them both, in different terms.

... Nick and I joke that it’s a bit like Zombies vs Vampires.

Zombies VS Vampires

Permanent Stagnation Flawed Realization

Zombie

(CC-BY) Jarrett MatthewsVampire

(CC-BY) Jarrett Matthews

Nick and I joke that it’s a bit like Zombies vs Vampires.

Permanent Stagnation and Flawed Realization. Losing our capability as a civilization, or enduring only in a deeply flawed form. These two risks fill our dystopian movies.

But because popular culture understands them, we can learn valuable lessons about our messaging and priorities by understanding them too.

... These two types of Xrisk cut to the heart of what it means to achieve our full potential.

EDEN PROJECT: TROPICAL BIOME / Photo via Steve Keiretsu (CC-BY-1.0) 2001

These two types of Xrisk cut to the heart of what it means to achieve our full potential.

There is a vast opportunity between these risks, because of the many advances needed to achieve an interstellar future – and because of the benefits such advances could have for life on Earth -‐-‐ in areas such as habitat design, energy infrastructure, biotechnology, as well as advanced computing, networking, and archival.

... If we work to prototype here and now, solving real-‐world problems along the way, all will benefit.

From ARCOLOGY: The City in the Image of Man © Paolo Soleri 1969 / Used by Permission

If we work to prototype here and now, solving real-‐world problems along the way, all will benefit. If we make advances open and adaptable to humanity’s best minds, we will gain allies in our effort to uplift Earth and thrive beyond it.

... Perhaps advanced, resilient technologies could carry a seal standing for the dual design goals of uplifting


Perhaps advanced, resilient technologies could carry a seal standing for the dual design goals of uplifting life on Earth while advancing our reach towards the stars. Like LEED certification for an infinite future.

... What would such projects be like? Last year, I proposed the Vessel project as a means to safeguard cultural potential on Earth and beyond.


What would such projects be like? Last year, I proposed the Vessel project as a means to safeguard cultural potential on Earth and beyond.

I’ll close with a brief update on this approach to advanced computing, compact habitat design, and long-‐term archival.

... Capability lost before advanced goals are reached will be very difficult to recover, without a means of setting a baseline for civilization’s capabilities.

Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008

Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis

Capability lost before advanced goals are reached will be very difficult to recover, without a means of setting a baseline for civilization’s capabilities.

A Vessel is an installation, facility, or habitat that serves as a reservoir for Earth’s biological, scientific, and cultural record. Into a Vessel is poured what must be remembered for humanity’s potential to be maintained. On Earth or beyond, a Vessel habitat is designed to carry forth the sum of all we’ve been. In 2012, Vessel was pictured as the Lilypad seasteading habitat. But different Vessels would have different designs based on their needs and settings. These traits remain key in each case:

... At a Vessel’s core would lie biological archives, meant to preserve key traces of Earth’s biodiversity.

Biological Cache(Library of Life)

Cultural Cache

Scientific Cache DIATOM 1 (Sarah Parker-Eaton & Louise Hibbert)

Photo via Bradbury J: Nature's Nanotechnologists: Unveiling the Secrets of Diatoms. PLoS Biol 2/10/2004: e306. (CC-BY-2.5) 2004

G. Benford: Saving The Library of Life (1992) goo.gl/wjhSC

At a Vessel’s core would lie biological archives, meant to preserve key traces of Earth’s biodiversity. Here the primary model is Gregory Benford’s groundbreaking 1992 Library of Life proposal. He details a program for freezing and preservation of endangered biomass for possible future recovery.

Also crucial would be core archives for cultural and scientific knowledge, both physical and digital. I’m working with Icarus Interstellar to make sure the Vessel framework is compatible with Icarus projects.

... Surrounding these archives would be Research Labs, where specialists can collaborate on advanced technologies,

James Webb Space Telescope Mirror 37 / NASA / MSFC / David Higginbotham / Emmett Given 2010

Research Labs (Inwards-Facing Facilities)

Surrounding these archives would be Research Labs, where specialists could collaborate on advanced technologies, seeking critical paths which avoid and mitigate Xrisk. Or, in a time of recovery, sealed labs could be the birthplace of new beginnings.

Research Labs would open inwards to draw upon the Core Cache.

... But in the near term, through an outer ring of Learning Labs, Vessel facilities could welcome the curious


Learning Labs (Outwards-Facing Facilities)

But in the near term, through an outer ring of Learning Labs, Vessel facilities could welcome the curious, and give visitors an inspiring glimpse at advanced studies.

Immersive labs could be catalysts for change, helping people understand the arc of history in nature, culture and science, the common risks ahead, and the limitless possibilities if Earth achieves its full potential.

... Built around these three roles -‐-‐ of Learning, Research, and Archival -‐-‐ the Vessel framework is designed to adapt to any setting or situation.

Architect © Vincent Callebaut Architectures 2008

Visualization Used by Permission and © Philippe Steels 2008 LILYPAD / Floating Ecopolis

Built around these three roles -‐-‐ of Learning, Research, and Archival -‐-‐ the Vessel framework is designed to adapt to any setting or situation.

What all Vessels would have in common is a dedication to preserving cultural capability, and a layered, approachable presence adapted to its setting.

Many should be built, using many approaches. Some could be public, while mission critical Vessels may be as remote as the Svalbard Seed Vault, or even secret.

... Some may be massive habitats, with others more like sculptures, compact and dense as a room.

Dome (CC-BY-NC) Tak

Desert-Qatar (CC-0) Public Domain (CC-BY-NC-ND) M.C.Chavez

(CC-BY-SA) Decade Null

Moon (NASA/Apollo) 1969


Some may be massive as habitats, with others more like sculptures, compact and dense as a room.

At the recent Starship Century conference in May, Freeman Dyson envisioned terrarium-‐like habitats which could seed the vast reaches of space with life. This egg-‐like approach is hugely inspiring to ponder from the perspective of the Vessel project.

Whether urban or remote, extreme habitats or modules on a starship, Vessel is offered as a flexible framework for the long term survival of life’s capabilities.

... The Vessel project has several routes forwards.

The Vessel project has several routes forwards.

My plans for 2014 include a global survey of existing long-‐term archival projects, an open design document to help others adapt and evolve the Vessel framework, and a Kickstarter for a Vessel-‐related art project.

Right before Starship Congress, I began an Internship with the Long Now Foundation, working on a project called the Manual for Civilization.

... As the first core collection for their planned Library of the Long Now, a 10,000 year archive, this work will overlap deeply with the Vessel project.

labs.vessel.ccRegister for updates on Vessel and the Long Now Manual for Civilization projects at:vessel.cc.launchrock.com

[email protected]@icarusinterstellar.org

@heath_rezabek follow on twitter

As the first core collection for their planned Library of the Long Now, a 10,000 year archive, this work will overlap deeply with the Vessel project.

So, my own timeline for Vessel is in flux. But if you’d like to collaborate, discuss ways of applying Xrisk mitigation to your own work, or want to help accelerate these efforts, please get in touch.

You can register for updates on the Vessel project at vessel.cc.launchrock.com

[Pause]

We now turn towards the longer term, with Nick Nielsen.


( Xrisk 101 )Session Slides & Contact Information

vessel.cc/sc2013

[email protected]

[email protected]

g+ Xrisk - goo.gl/0QKj4

NICK’S SLIDES CONTINUE FROM HERE

Above is Final Slide for Questions and Comments after Nick’s Slides

mailto:[email protected]

Xrisk 101: (2013) Existential Risk for Interstellar Advocates (w/Notes)

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Transcript of Xrisk 101: (2013) Existential Risk for Interstellar Advocates (w/Notes)