XP Presidential Poll Round 18 - images.infomoney.com.br · 4 Highlights Political Analysis The 18th...

XP Presidential Poll – Round 18

September, 2018

2

Political Analysis

Month & Week Data Colection TSE Register# # Interviews Margin of ErrorMay Wk3 May-15 to May-18 BR-09600/2018 1,000 3.2May Wk4 May-21 to May-23 BR-05699/2018 1,000 3.2

May Wk5 (Truck Strike) - - - -June Wk1 Jun-04 to Jun-06 BR-05997/2018 1,000 3.2June Wk2 Jun-11 to Jun-13 BR-07273/2018 1,000 3.2June Wk3 Jun-18 to Jun-20 BR-06647/2018 1,000 3.2June Wk4 Jun-25 to Jun-27 BR-03362/2018 1,000 3.2July Wk1 Jul-02 to Jul-04 BR-04338/2018 1,000 3.2July Wk2 Jul-09 to Jul-11 BR-09898/2018 1,000 3.2July Wk3 Jul-16 to Jul-18 BR-02843/2018 1,000 3.2July Wk4 Jul-23 to Jul-25 BR-07756/2018 1,000 3.2

August Wk1 Jul-30 to Aug-01 BR-06820/2018 1,000 3.2August Wk2 Aug-06 to Aug-08 BR-08988/2018 1,000 3.2August Wk3 Aug-13 to Aug-15 BR-02075/2018 1,000 3.2August Wk4 Aug-20 to Aug-22 BR-07829/2018 1,000 3.2August Wk5 Aug-27 to Aug-29 BR-07252/2018 1,000 3.2

September Wk1 Sep-03 to Sep-05 BR-00339/2018 2,000 2.2September Wk2 Sep-10 to Sep-12 BR-07277/2018 2,000 2.2September Wk3 Sep-17 to Sep-19 BR-02995/2018 2,000 2.2

XP Presidential Polls

Conducted by: Instituto de pesquisas sociais, políticas e econômicas (Ipespe) Coverage: National Method: Phone call interviews

XP Presidential Poll - Details

All files from previous polls and scenarios breakdowns are available here.

http://bit.ly/2zAq3Zz

3

Political Analysis

GENDER REGIONMALE 48% NORTH 8%FEMALE 52% NORTHEAST 27%

AGE SOUTHEAST 43%16 & 17 YO 1% SOUTH 15%18 TO 34 YO 34% MIDWEST 7%35 TO 54 YO 39% TYPE OF CITY+55 YO 26% CAPITAL TOWNS 24%

OCUPATION OUTLYING TOWNS 10%WORKING 59% COUNTRY TOWNS 66%NOT WORKING 41% CITY SIZE INCOME (MW = USD260) < 50.000 HAB 34%E CLASS (< 1 MW) 21% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 23%D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 28% 200.001 TO 500.000 HAB 14%C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 35% > 500.000 HAB 29%B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 15% RELIGIONA CLASS (> 20 MW) 1% CATHOLIC 61%DIDN'T ANSWER 0% EVANGELICAL 24% EDUCATION LEVEL DONT KNOW 8%ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 7% SPIRITTUALISM 3%MIDDLE SCHOOL 31% ADVENTITST 1%HIGH SCHOOL 42% OTHER 4%HIGHER EDUCATION 20% AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 0%

VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL)

Voter profile: current week distribution

Source: XP Investimentos – Presidential Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

4

Political Analysis Highlights

The 18th round of XP Presidential Poll shows that Fernando Haddad (PT) rose 6 points since last week,

from 10% to 16%, and is now the vice-leader, five points ahead of Ciro Gomes (PDT). Jair Bolsonaro has

increased his performance since the beginning of September and now leads with 28% of voters intension,

two points above last week.

Haddad’s rejection increased for the fifth consecutive week, reaching 60%, while Bolsonaro’s rejection

remains unchanged at 57%. The front-runners are said to be the worst possible presidents for Brazil –

32% say Haddad would be the worst one and 30% say Bolsonaro.

In second round scenarios, Bolsonaro increased marginally his advantage over Haddad from 40% x 38%

to 41% x 38%. Bolsonaro improved his performance against Geraldo Alckmin (they are tied, 39% to 39%)

and against Marina Silva (he leads, 40% x 35%). He still loses to Ciro Gomes, 40% to 35%.

For the first time, there’s no meaningful difference in results when the voters are informed that Haddad is

“supported by Lula” – the PT candidate receives only one extra p.p.

Strategic vote: Voters were asked for the first time if they would change their vote in first round in order to

avoid a second round with a candidate they dislike: 37% said “yes” and 57% said “no”. The voters more

likely to change the decision are those who support Alvaro Dias, Marina Silva and Ciro Gomes – more

than a half said they would change.

Among the voters of the four right-wing candidates (Geraldo Alckmin, Alvaro Dias, Henrique Meirelles,

and João Amoedo), 47% said they would cast a strategic vote to avoid a candidate they dislike in the

second round.

5

Political Analysis

1.Electoral Scenarios

2.Assessing the electorate & Microdata

Analysis

XP Poll

6

Political Analysis Voting Intention - Spontaneous


September Week 3

7

Political Analysis Scenario 1


September Week 3

8

Political Analysis Scenario 2 – Haddad with Lula’s support


September Week 3

9

Political Analysis Second option


10

Political Analysis

FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA

JAIR BOLSONARO

GERALDO ALCKMIN

MARINA SILVA

CIRO GOMES

ÁLVARO DIAS

UNDECIDED

ÁLVARO DIAS 2% 7% 5% 1% 2% 0% 0%CIRO GOMES 35% 6% 19% 19% 0% 2% 0%FERNANDO HADDAD, SUPPORTED BY LULA 0% 2% 6% 16% 32% 8% 0%GERALDO ALCKMIN 8% 10% 0% 16% 10% 18% 0%GUILHERME BOULOS 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% 0% 0%HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 2% 3% 10% 11% 3% 10% 0%JAIR BOLSONARO 4% 0% 16% 9% 9% 16% 0%MARINA SILVA 13% 3% 14% 0% 12% 4% 0%JOÃO AMOÊDO 1% 7% 2% 1% 3% 0% 0%VERA LÚCIA 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0%CABO DACIOLO 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%JOÃO GOULART FILHO 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%JOSÉ MARIA EYMAEL 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0%DIDN'T ANSWER 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%DON'T KNOW 5% 9% 19% 7% 0% 0% 0%NONE/BLANK/NULL 27% 48% 6% 15% 24% 38% 0%HADN'T CHOSEN ANYONE IN SCENARIO 3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

IF THE CANDIDATE YOU CHOSE ON THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO DOESN'T MAKE TO THE TICKET, WHO'D YOU VOTE FOR?Choice in scenario 2

2nd Option

Second option


11

Political Analysis Vote Migration MICRODATA SPECIAL


12

Political Analysis 2nd Round Scenarios


13



14



15

Political Analysis Voter conviction


*The question regarding Amoêdo wasn’t asked between Jun Wk4 and Sep Wk 1.

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Political Analysis Rejection



17

Political Analysis Unfamiliarity



18

Political Analysis

Would Surely Vote

Could VoteWouldn't

Vote Dont't Know

EnoughDon'tKnow/

Didn'tAnswerTotal

BOLSONARO 25% 13% 57% 4% 1% 100%

HADDAD 16% 12% 60% 10% 1% 100%

CIRO 13% 25% 54% 7% 1% 100%

ALCKMIN 8% 22% 60% 7% 1% 100%

MARINA 5% 19% 67% 6% 1% 100%

AMÔEDO 5% 14% 44% 36% 1% 100%

A. DIAS 5% 17% 51% 26% 1% 100%

I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM, WOULDN'T

VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY.

Conviction, recognition and rejection.


September Week 3

19

Political Analysis Expectation of Victory


September Week 3

20

Political Analysis

1.Electoral Scenarios

2.Assessing the electorate & Microdata

Analysis

XP Poll

21

Political Analysis Interest in the election


22

Political Analysis Veto


23

Political Analysis Strategic vote


24

Political Analysis How the angry vote?


This week, 28% of voters reject both Haddad and Bolsonaro. This is how they vote.

MICRODATA SPECIAL

25

Political Analysis Vote migration (to Haddad)


Distribution of votes in the 2nd round scenario between Haddad & Bolsonaro

MICRODATA SPECIAL

26

Political Analysis Vote migration (to Bolsonaro)



MICRODATA SPECIAL

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Political Analysis Vote migration (to none, blank, null, DA & DK )



MICRODATA SPECIAL

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Political Analysis Disclaimer

This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”).

XPI and its affiliates, parent, shareholders, directors, officers, employees, and licensors will not be liable (individually, jointly, or

severally) to you or any other person as a result of your access, reception, or use of the information contained in this

communication.

All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of transmission and these, plus any

other information contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that

any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances

or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation.

This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a

solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. This material (including any attachments) is

confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only.

In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results

presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in

violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979.

Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in

this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais,

políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.

XP Presidential Poll Round 18 - images.infomoney.com.br · 4 Highlights Political Analysis The 18th...

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