XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

38
1 Rpt. 16500018  XINYUAN REAL ESTATE CO LTD  2 - 6 10- Aug -2010 RODMAN & RENSHA W, INC. - FAN, LEWIS Rpt. 16897388  XINYUAN REAL ESTATE CO LTD  7 - 12 11- Nov -2010 RODMAN & RENSHA W, INC. - FAN, LEWIS Rpt. 17309327  XINYUAN REAL ESTATE CO LTD  13 - 18 28-Feb-20 11 RODMAN & RENSHA W, INC. - FAN, LEWIS Rpt. 17613086  XINYUAN REAL ESTATE CO LTD  19 - 25 16- May -2011 RODMAN & RENSHA W, INC. - FAN, LEWIS Rpt. 17661664  XINYUAN REAL ESTATE CO LTD  26 - 29 26- May -2011 RODMAN & RENSHA W, INC. - FAN, LEWIS Rpt. 18006763  XINYUAN REAL E STATE CO LTD  30 - 35 10-Aug-2011 RODMAN & RENSHA W, INC. - FAN, LEWIS Rpt. 18244964  XINYUAN REAL ESTATE CO LTD  36 - 38 14-Oct-2011 RODMAN & RENSHA W, INC. - IOMMI, WILLIAM A

Transcript of XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

Page 1: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 1/38

Rpt. 16500018   XINYUAN REAL ESTATE CO LTD   2 - 6

10-Aug-2010 RODMAN & RENSHAW, INC.

- FAN, LEWIS

Rpt. 16897388   XINYUAN REAL ESTATE CO LTD   7 - 12

11-Nov-2010 RODMAN & RENSHAW, INC.

- FAN, LEWIS

Rpt. 17309327   XINYUAN REAL ESTATE CO LTD   13 - 18

28-Feb-2011 RODMAN & RENSHAW, INC.

- FAN, LEWIS

Rpt. 17613086   XINYUAN REAL ESTATE CO LTD   19 - 25

16-May-2011 RODMAN & RENSHAW, INC.

- FAN, LEWIS

Rpt. 17661664   XINYUAN REAL ESTATE CO LTD   26 - 29

26-May-2011 RODMAN & RENSHAW, INC.

- FAN, LEWIS

Rpt. 18006763   XINYUAN REAL ESTATE CO LTD   30 - 35

10-Aug-2011 RODMAN & RENSHAW, INC.

- FAN, LEWIS

Rpt. 18244964   XINYUAN REAL ESTATE CO LTD   36 - 38

14-Oct-2011 RODMAN & RENSHAW, INC.

- IOMMI, WILLIAM A

Page 2: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 2/38

For definitions and the distribution of analyst ratings, and other disclosures, please refer to pages 4 - 5 of this report

®

 August 10, 2010

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. (XIN)EARNINGS UPDATE

CHINA

Market Outperform / Speculative Risk

Lewis Fa212-430-175

[email protected] Y

[email protected]

2Q10 Earnings Review: Not That Bad Af ter All

MARKET DATA 8/10/2010Price $2.73

Exchange NYSE

Target Price $7.00

52 Wk Hi - Low $6.04 - $2.20

EV(MM) $367.6

Market Cap(MM) $207.1

Shares Out (MM) 75.8

Public Mkt Float (MM) NA

Avg. Daily Vol (000) 414,152.0

BALANCE SHEET METRICS

Cash (MM) $222.7

LTD (MM) $219.7

Total Debt/Total Equity 68.90%

Debt/Capital NA

Price/Book Value 0.4x

Book Value/Share $6.24

EARNINGS DATA ($)

FY - Dec 2009A 2010E 2011E

Q1 (Mar) 0.03 0.16 A   0.14

Q2 (Jun) 0.08 0.13 A   0.19

Q3 (Sep) 0.14 0.14 0.24

Q4 (Dec) 0.32 0.17 0.28

Full Year EPS 0.57 0.59 0.95

Revenue (MM) 449.0 397.1 653.7

VALUATION METRICS

Price/Earnings 4.8x 4.6x 2.9xY/Y EPS Growth NM 3.5% 61.0%

INDICES

DJIA 10,644.2

SP-500 1,121.1

NASDAQ 1,899.2

Russell 2000 646.4

Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q31

2

3

4

5

6

2010

1 Year Price History

Created by BlueMatrix

0

1

2

3

2Q10 results much better than expectationIn spite of the momentous government policy shift taking place durinthe quarter, Xinyuan delivered a surprisingly strong 2Q10 earningperformance. Net revenue for the quarter was $94.5 million, blowinaway our doomsday expectation of $63.2 million and Street consensuof $73.1 million. Contract sales reached $97.0 million, above ouexpectation of $79.0 million. Total GFA sales were 86,200 squarmeters, higher than our estimate of 73,774 square meters. ASP stayefirm as we had expected. At $1,126 per square meter, it was virtuallunchanged from $1,130 in 1Q10. GAAP net income for the quarter wa$9.6 million, above our estimate of $7.3 million. Diluted GAAP EPADSwas $0.13, 4 cents above our estimate.

The company also provided full year 2010 guidance: GFA sales arexpected to be somewhere between 420,000 and 430,000 square meterand contract sales are anticipated to reach between $460 million an$470 million. Revenue is forecasted to be in the range of $425 million t$435 million, leading to $43 - $47 million of net income.

Our take

We are heartened by the resiliency of Xinyuan’s sales efforts during thdifficult period, and we believe this bodes well for the company’s near tmedium term prospects. Looking forward to the rest of the year, we dnot expect any material relaxation in government’s real estate policespecially if renewed market enthusiasm becomes apparent. In thregard, we expect the Chinese real estate market landscape will rema

cloudy in the foreseeable future. In such an operating environment, wbelieve real estate developers with strong balance sheets and liquiditwill fare relative well, and Xinyuan certainly fits this profile, especiallwhen considering it has its landbank fully paid for already, and ha$222.7 million of cash as of the end of June.

Reiterate Market Outperform rating and $7 Pr ice Target

We reiterate our Market Outperform rating and $7 price target on thshares of Xinyuan. For full year 2010, we now expect the company wiachieve contract sales of $458.1 million and total GFA sales of 424,000square meters. We further estimate 2010 revenues, gross profit, and prforma EPADS will reach $425.0 million, $92.7 million, and $0.59respectively. Our $7 price target is now based on the shares trading a

7x our 2011 Non-GAAP EPADS estimate of $0.95. The 7x multiplrepresents a 30% discount to the average P/E multiple of 10x currentcommanded by Xinyuan’s peer group. While we acknowledge thuncertainty currently facing the Chinese real estate market and thstrong impact government policies could have on real estate companiefinancial performance, it is our opinion that Xinyuan’s current share prichas largely factored in such risks and offers attractive valuation.

2

Page 3: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 3/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

Exhibit 1 Xinyuan’s comparables

Ticker Price Share out Mkt Cap FY09A FY10E FY11E FY09A FY10E FY11E

China Resource Land Ltd. 1109-HK 15.78 5,035 79,456 0.90 0.82 1.02 17.5 x 19.2 x 15.5 x

China Overseas Land & Investment 688-HK 16.52 8,172 134,997 0.92 1.01 1.17 18.0 x 16.4 x 14.1 x

New World China Land Ltd. 917-HK 2.70 5,757 15,544 0.32 0.19 0.22 8.5 x 14.0 x 12.4 x

Shanghai Forte Land Co. 2337-HK 2.24 1,056 2,364 0.20 0.39 0.37 11.4 x 5.7 x 6.0 x

Hopson Development Holdings Ltd. 754-HK 10.64 1,752 18,645 3.77 1.49 2.12 2.8 x 7.1 x 5.0 xHenderson Land Development Co Ltd 12-HK 51.30 2,147 110,128 - 2.57 2.92 - 20.0 x 17.6 x

Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. 2777-HK 12.08 1,015 12,264 0.90 1.27 1.42 13.4 x 9.5 x 8.5 x

Beijing Capital Land Ltd. 2868-HK 2.48 1,021 2,531 0.27 0.39 0.44 9.3 x 6.3 x 5.6 x

Agile Property Holdings Ltd. 3383-HK 9.72 3,555 34,554 0.52 0.85 1.04 18.8 x 11.4 x 9.3 x

Greentown China Holdings Ltd. 3900-HK 9.31 1,641 15,273 0.64 0.96 1.36 14.5 x 9.7 x 6.8 x

Shui On Land Ltd. 272-HK 3.47 5,023 17,429 0.55 0.25 0.22 6.3 x 14.0 x 15.8 x

Glorious Properties Holdings Ltd. 845-HK 2.39 7,793 18,624 0.38 0.32 0.38 6.3 x 7.6 x 6.2 x

Yuexiu Property Co. Ltd. 123-HK 1.87 7,138 13,347 (0.10) 0.15 0.20 -19.1 x 12.9 x 9.5 x

Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. 2007-HK 2.42 16,451 39,812 0.13 0.18 0.22 19.0 x 13.2 x 11.2 x

Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. 3333-HK 2.67 15,000 40,050 0.07 0.52 0.61 36.1 x 5.2 x 4.4 x

Sino-Ocean Land Holdings Ltd. 3377-HK 5.68 5,637 32,020 0.34 0.42 0.50 16.9 x 13.6 x 11.4 x

Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. 813-HK 13.88 3,544 49,190 1.02 1.16 1.26 13.6 x 12.0 x 11.0 x

China Housing & Land Development CHLN 2.64 33 87 0.55 0.57 0.91 4.8 x 4.6 x 2.9 x

Comparable Mean 11.7 x 11.2 x 9.6 x

Xinyuan Real Estate Company XIN 2.73 76 207 0.57 0.59 0.95 4.8 x 4.6 x 2.9 x

EPS P/E

 Note: None of companies in the table except XIN is rated by Rodman & RenshawSource: Factset, Rodman & Renshaw research estimates

Risks 

Major risks include: 1) Government regulatory policy risk; 2) Land cost risk; 3) Financing

availability; 4) Increasing competition; 5) Ability for geographic expansion; 6) Execution risks; and

7) Country risks related to operating in China.

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. August 10, 2

3

Page 4: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 4/38

Page 5: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 5/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

RODMAN & RENSHAW RATING SYSTEM:  Rodman & Renshaw employs a three tier rating system for evaluating both the potentiareturn and risk associated with owning common equity shares of rated firms. The expected return of any given equity is measured onRELATIVE basis of other companies in the same sector, as defined by First Call. The price objective is calculated to estimate the potentiamovement in price a given equity could achieve given certain targets are met over a defined time horizon. Price objectives are subject texogenous factors including industry events and market volatility. The risk assessment evaluates the company specific risk and accounfor the following factors, maturity of market, maturity of technology, maturity of firm, cash utilization, and valuation considerationsPotential factors contributing to risk: relatively undefined market, new technologies, immature firm, high cash burn rates, intrinsic valuweighted toward future earnings or events.

RETURN ASSESSMENT

●   Market Outperform (Buy): The common stock of the company is expected to outperform a passive index comprised of all the commostock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

●   Market Perform (Hold): The common stock of the company is expected to mimic the performance of a passive index comprised of athe common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

●  Market Underperform (Sell): The common stock of the company is expected to underperform a passive index comprised of all thcommon stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

RISK ASSESSMENT

●   Speculative - The common stock risk level is significantly greater than market risk. The stock price of these equities is exceptionavolatile.

●   Aggressive - The common stock risk level is materially higher than market level risk. The stock price is typically more volatile than thgeneral market.

●   Moderate - The common stock is moderately risky, or equivalent to stock market risk. The stock price volatility is typically in-line wimovements in the general market.

Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q30

4

8

12

16

20

2008 2009 2010

05/27/10I:MO:$7

Rating and Price Target History for: Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. (XIN) as of 08-09-2010

Created by BlueMatrix

RATING SUMMARY

Distribution of Ratings TableIB Serv./Past 12 Mos

Rating Count Percent Count Percent

Market Outperform(MO) 141 67.50% 39 27.66%

Market Perform(MP) 49 23.40% 4 8.16%

Market Underperform(MU) 7 3.30% 0 0.00%

Under Review(UR) 12 5.70% 2 16.67%

Total 209 100% 45 100%

Investment Banking Services include, but are not limited to, acting as a manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement o

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. August 10, 2

5

Page 6: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 6/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

securities, acting as financial advisor, and/or providing corporate finance or capital markets-related services to a company or one of iaffiliates or subsidiaries within the past 12 months.

 ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES

Rodman & Renshaw, LLC. (the "Firm") is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer.

 ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I, Lewis Fan, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subjecompany(ies) and its (their) securities.

None of the research analysts or the research analyst's household has a financial interest in the securities of Xinyuan Real EstatCompany Ltd. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position).

As of Jun 30 2010 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Xinyuan ReaEstate Company Ltd..

Neither the research analyst nor the Firm has any material conflict of interest with Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd., of which thresearch analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.

The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specifinvestment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm,substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services.

The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. for any investment banking services withtwelve months before, but intends to seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking servicewithin three months, following publication of the research report.

Neither the research analyst nor any member of the research analyst's household nor the Firm serves as an officer, director or advisorboard member of Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd..

The Firm does make a market in Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. securities as of the date of this research report.

Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Reproduction without written permission is prohibited. The closing prices of securities mentioned in this report are as of Aug 10 2010Additional information is available to clients upon written request. For complete research report on Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltdplease call (212) 356-0500.

Readers are advised that this analysis report is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell othe solicitation of an offer to buy. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is no

guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data. Past performancis no guarantee of future results.

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. August 10, 2

6

Page 7: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 7/38

For definitions and the distribution of analyst ratings, and other disclosures, please refer to pages 5 - 6 of this report

®

November 11, 2010

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. (XIN)EARNINGS UPDATE

CHINA

Market Outperform / Speculative Risk

Lewis Fa212-430-175

[email protected] Y

[email protected]

3Q10 Earnings Review: A Mixed Quarter 

MARKET DATA 11/11/2010Price $2.81

Exchange NYSE

Target Price $7.00

52 Wk Hi - Low $5.49 - $2.20

EV(MM) $367.6

Market Cap(MM) $213.1

Shares Out (MM) 75.8

Public Mkt Float (MM) NA

Avg. Daily Vol 263,813.0

BALANCE SHEET METRICS

Cash (MM) $157.8

LTD (MM) $218.3

Total Debt/Total Equity 56.37%

Debt/Capital NA

Price/Book Value 0.9x

Book Value/Share $3.20

EARNINGS DATA ($)

FY - Dec 2009A 2010E 2011E

Q1 (Mar) 0.02 0.15 A   0.15

Q2 (Jun) 0.07 0.11 A   0.20

Q3 (Sep) 0.13 0.10 A   0.27

Q4 (Dec) 0.31 0.19 0.29

Full Year EPS 0.52 0.55 1.06

Revenue (MM) 449.0 439.3 753.9

VALUATION METRICS

Price/Earnings 5.4x 5.1x 2.7x

Y/Y EPS Growth NM 5.8% 92.7%

INDICES

DJIA 11,244.9

SP-500 1,206.0

NASDAQ 2,151.8

Russell 2000 725.6

Q3 Q1 Q2 Q31

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2011

1 Year Price History

Created by BlueMatrix

0

1

2

3

3Q10 results mixedDuring a quarter in which the government continued to implement nepolicies aimed at cooling down residential real estate prices in ChinaXinyuan delivered a quarterly performance that beat our top line estimatbut missed our bottom line expectation. Revenue for the quarter wa$107.6 million, down 16.1% YoY and above our expectation of $98.million as well as $100.2 million Street consensus. Contract sales totale$151.0 million, down 5.0% YoY but 55.7% higher than the previouquarter. Total GFA sales were 137,500 square meters, down 25.5% YoYbut 59.5% higher than 2Q10. ASP saw a bit of softness during 3Q10registering RMB7,480 ($1,099) per square meter, down from RMB7,68($1,126) during the last quarter. GAAP net income for the quarter wa$8.0 million, below our estimate of $9.8 million. Diluted GAAP EPADSwas $0.10, below our estimate of $0.12. Non-GAAP EPADS was $0.10below both Street consensus and our estimates of $0.14. At the end othe quarter, Xinyuan had $263.5 million of cash and cash equivalenrelative to a total debt amount of $342.3 million. Real estate propertunder development was $646.9 million.

4Q10 guidance

The company also provided 4Q10 guidance: GFA sales are expected tbe between 130,000 and 140,000 square meter. Contract sales arexpected to reach between $140 million and $150 million. Revenue iforecasted to be in the range of $125 million to $130 million, and neincome is likely to be $13 - $16 million.

Our takeWe are by and large satisfied with the performance considering thuncertain policy environment during the quarter. The Kunshan salereversal notwithstanding, we believe the above-expectation quarterrevenue continued to reflect the company’s strong sales efforts. Thbottom line, on the other hand, was negatively impacted by higheincome tax on projects located in Jiangsu province (Kunshan, Suzhouand Xuzhou) due to the elimination of land VAT waiver. Going forwardthis will add 1.8% to the company’s effective tax rate. Looking forward t4Q10, the company’s guidance was slightly higher than our previouestimates. Zhengzhou Modern City, Xuzhou Colorful Garden, anChengdu Splendid projects should be the main strength contributors fothe company in the quarter. We are optimistic about the company’s 201

outlook. Xinyuan should have 5 projects launching pre-sales before thend of 1Q11. Its landbank is fully funded, and, with its newly acquireJiantou JV, the company should have enough GFA for the entire year’sof developments. In addition, we believe Chinese real estate buyers arlearning to live and cope with new government policies, which cabreathe new life into the more expensive projects such as Kunshan anSuzhou.

7

Page 8: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 8/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

Reiterating Market Outperform rating and $7 Price Target

         

   

       

         

       

  Xinyuan’s   Exhibit 1 Sales price YoY % change in China

Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Rodman & Renshaw research

Exhibit 2 XIN comp table

Source: FactSet, Rodman & Renshaw research estimatesNote: None of the companies in the table except Xinyuan are rated by Rodman & Renshaw

 

 

 

 

   

 

   

            

     

    

           

            

            

     

    

           

            

                               

                               

YoY Housing Price % Change in Seventy Chinese Cities

Ticker Price     FY09A FY10E FY11E FY09A FY10E FY11E                                                               

                                                                                                                               

                             

                                                                 

                   

                             

Comparable Mean 13.2 x 11.7 x 10.2 x

                 

EPS P/E

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. November 11, 2

8

Page 9: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 9/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

Risks 

         

           

 

Company Description

         

 

         

     

     

       

       

 

           

         

   

 

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. November 11, 2

9

Page 10: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 10/38

Page 11: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 11/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

RODMAN & RENSHAW RATING SYSTEM:  Rodman & Renshaw employs a three tier rating system for evaluating both the potentiareturn and risk associated with owning common equity shares of rated firms. The expected return of any given equity is measured onRELATIVE basis of other companies in the same sector, as defined by First Call. The price objective is calculated to estimate the potentiamovement in price a given equity could achieve given certain targets are met over a defined time horizon. Price objectives are subject texogenous factors including industry events and market volatility. The risk assessment evaluates the company specific risk and accounfor the following factors, maturity of market, maturity of technology, maturity of firm, cash utilization, and valuation considerationsPotential factors contributing to risk: relatively undefined market, new technologies, immature firm, high cash burn rates, intrinsic valuweighted toward future earnings or events.

RETURN ASSESSMENT

● Market Outperform (Buy): The common stock of the company is expected to outperform a passive index comprised of all thcommon stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

● Market Perform (Hold): The common stock of the company is expected to mimic the performance of a passive index compriseof all the common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

● Market Underperform (Sell): The common stock of the company is expected to underperform a passive index comprised of athe common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

RISK ASSESSMENT

● Speculative - The common stock risk level is significantly greater than market risk. The stock price of these equities iexceptionally volatile.

● Aggressive - The common stock risk level is materially higher than market level risk. The stock price is typically more volatithan the general market.

● Moderate - The common stock is moderately risky, or equivalent to stock market risk. The stock price volatility is typically in-linwith movements in the general market.

Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q30

4

8

12

16

20

2008 2009 2010 2011

05/27/10I:MO:$7

Rating and Price Target History for: Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. (XIN) as of 11-10-2010

Created by BlueMatrix

RATING SUMMARY

Distribution of Ratings TableIB Serv./Past 12 Mos

Rating Count Percent Count Percent

Market Outperform(MO) 172 75.80% 49 28.49%

Market Perform(MP) 45 19.80% 4 8.89%

Market Underperform(MU) 5 2.20% 0 0.00%

Under Review(UR) 5 2.20% 0 0.00%

Total 227 100% 53 100%

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. November 11, 2

Page 12: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 12/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

Investment Banking Services include, but are not limited to, acting as a manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement osecurities, acting as financial advisor, and/or providing corporate finance or capital markets-related services to a company or one of iaffiliates or subsidiaries within the past 12 months.

 ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES

Rodman & Renshaw, LLC. (the "Firm") is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer.

 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONI, Lewis Fan, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subjecompany(ies) and its (their) securities.

None of the research analysts or the research analyst's household has a financial interest in the securities of Xinyuan Real EstatCompany Ltd. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position).

As of Sep 30 2010 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Xinyuan ReEstate Company Ltd..

Neither the research analyst nor the Firm has any material conflict of interest with Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd., of which thresearch analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.

The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specifinvestment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm,substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services.

The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. for any investment banking services withtwelve months before, but intends to seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking servicewithin three months, following publication of the research report.

Neither the research analyst nor any member of the research analyst's household nor the Firm serves as an officer, director or advisorboard member of Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd..

The Firm does make a market in Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. securities as of the date of this research report.

Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Reproduction without written permission is prohibited. The closing prices of securities mentioned in this report are as of Nov 11 2010Additional information is available to clients upon written request. For complete research report on Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltdplease call (212) 356-0500.

Readers are advised that this analysis report is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell o

the solicitation of an offer to buy. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is noguaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data. Past performancis no guarantee of future results.

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. November 11, 2

Page 13: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 13/38

For definitions and the distribution of analyst ratings, and other disclosures, please refer to pages 5 - 6 of this report

®

February 28, 2011

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. (XIN)EARNINGS UPDATE

CHINA

Market Outperform / Speculative Risk

Lewis Fa212-430-175

[email protected] Y

[email protected]

It Is the Best of Times, It Is the Worst of Times

MARKET DATA Intraday - 2/28/2011Price $2.69

Exchange NYSE

Target Price $7.00

52 Wk Hi - Low $4.30 - $2.20

EV(MM) $295.5

Market Cap(MM) $212.6

Shares Out (MM) 76.9

Public Mkt Float (MM) NA

Avg. Daily Vol 355,180.0

BALANCE SHEET METRICS

Cash (MM) $295.6

LTD (MM) $187.3

Total Debt/Total Equity 57.10%

Debt/Capital NA

Price/Book Value 0.4x

Book Value/Share $6.66

EARNINGS DATA ($)

FY - Dec 2009A 2010A 2011E

Q1 (Mar) 0.02 0.15 0.17

Q2 (Jun) 0.07 0.11 0.19

Q3 (Sep) 0.13 0.10 0.22

Q4 (Dec) 0.31 0.28 0.26

Full Year EPS 0.52 0.64 0.98

Revenue (MM) 449.0 450.0 630.0

VALUATION METRICS

Price/Earnings 5.2x 4.2x 2.7x

Y/Y EPS Growth NM 23.1% 53.1%

INDICES

DJIA 12,198.7

SP-500 1,326.8

NASDAQ 2,359.6

Russell 2000 826.9

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q11

2

3

4

5

2010 2011

1 Year Price History

Created by BlueMatrix

0

1

2

3

 Amid the ever faster drum beats of tightening government policieXinyuan Real Estate (“Xinyuan”, NYSE: XIN, Market Outperformdelivered strong F4Q10 results that largely surpassed Street and ouexpectations. Total revenue grew 27.5% YoY to $137.2 million, beatingour estimate of $126.5 million and Street’s consensus of $125.9 millionContract sales reached $194.1 million, better than our expectation o$147.1 million. Both revenue and contract sales exceeded thcompany’s own guidance range. GFA sales were 173,200 square meter(sqm), higher than our estimate of 140,408 sqm. ASP in the quarter waRMB7,584, compared to RMB7,480 in the last quarter and RMB6,826 F4Q09. Gross margin expanded 300bps from last quarter to 30.2%much better than our expectation of 25.0%. Both gross profit anoperating income reached record highs at $41.4 million and $32million, respectively. Adjusted EPADS was $0.28, significantly highe

than our estimate of $0.19 and Street consensus of $0.21.

F4Q10 Highlights and Discussions

Chengdu Splendid II and Xuzhou Colorful Garden drove stronsales:  Xinyuan’s strong top line performance was mainly attributable tChengdu Splendid II, which started sales in F2Q10 and was 29% sold iGFA during F4Q10, and Xuzhou Colorful Garden, which commencesales in last quarter and was 42% sold in GFA. On the ASP front, everactive project achieved sequential growth in the range of 1.3% (KunshaInternational City Garden) to 8% (Chengdu Splendid II). Please note thin F4Q10 Xinyuan recognized sales reversals of $26.9 million related tsales contracts for Kunshan International City Garden, which reducerevenue by $20.7 million in the quarter. It is also worth noting that thsales reversal only occurred to Kunshan project, since other projects oXinyuan are primarily self-occupied by buyers thus securing mortgage usually not an issue.

Gross margin expansion aided by $5.5M government cost subsidyIn addition to higher ASP across the board driving margin expansionXinyuan revised project costs and sales estimates for certain projecthat resulted in $7.8 million gross profits recognized in F4Q10. Thlargest contribution came from Zhengzhou Modern City, which receive$5.5 million government cost subsidy in the quarter. Without thgovernment subsidy, gross margin would have decreased to 26.2% andnet income would have been reduced by approximately $0.9 million. Wdo not think the government cost subsidy will be sustainable, as such w

expect gross margin in the next quarters will come down from the level 4Q10.

Five new projects to launch   in 2Q11:   Xinyuan’s project pipelinremains solid. Five new projects with total GFA of 1,112.9 sqm havbeen scheduled for pre-sales in 2Q11. Combining with the current activprojects, Xinyuan will have total unsold GFA of 1,733.6 sqm, whicshould support the top-line in 2011.

Page 14: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 14/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

Stronger balance sheet:  As of end of 4Q10, Xinyuan had cash and cash equivalents of $295.6 million

(including restricted cash), and total debt of $295.9 million, which compared favorably to cash of $263.5

million and debt of $342.3 million at the end of 3Q10. Net gearing ratio reduced sharply from 31.6% in last

quarter to 15.9%. With the significant amount of cash on hand, management indicated in the conference

call that Xinyuan intends to continue to buy land in various second tier and third tier cities to build up land

bank rather than to return capital to shareholders in the near term. We remind investors that Xinyuan

adopts a low inventory of land model which enables high asset turn over, but also forces the company tofrequently replenish its land reserve through open market auctions. We believe the strong cash position

bodes well for Xinyuan’s long term growth.

2011 outlook provided: Xinyuan provided the outlook for 1Q11 and 2011. For 1Q11, contract sales are

expected to reach approximately $115 million and revenue is estimated to be $120 million. Net income is

projected to be around $13 million. For the full year 2011, contract sales will reach approximately $710

million and revenue will be about $650 million. Net income is expected to grow 45% YoY to $75 million.

Keeping eye on 2Q11: To combat tenaciously high property prices and restrain speculations, more than

20 Chinese cities have recently issued local property purchase restricted orders. These cities include

Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Changchun, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Guiyang, Harbin, Jinan, Nanjing, Nanning,

Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan, Wuhan, Ningbo, Qingdao, Wuxi, Xiamen, Xi’an  and Zhengzhou. Most ofXinyuan’s operating cities are affected and we will not be surprised if the remaining operating cities

(Suzhou and Xuzhou) will issue similar property purchase restriction orders in the next weeks/months.

That being said, we believe restricting measures in Tier II/III cities are less stringent than those in Tier I

cities, and a majority of property buyers are still local residents. We believe Xinyuan’s performance in

2Q11 will be a strong testament to whether the real estate markets in Tier II/III cities are resilient. We also

believe the company’s 2011 outlook should have incorporated at least some impact from the government

tightening policies.

Maintaining Market Outperform Rating and $7 Price Target

Considering the deteriorating policy environment for Chinese real estate companies in general, we are

adopting an increasingly more cautious view on Xinyuan ’s near to medium-term prospects, as we believe

the Chinese government’s resolve to cool down the real estate market and the spread of draconiantightening policies further into Tier II and Tier III cities are likely to prevent real estate companies from

delivering blockbuster financial performance in the foreseeable future. That being said, we are certainly

satisfied with the company's most recent financial performance and current outlook, and believe

management has done a good job guiding the company through this uncertain time. In addition, with the

shares currently trading at only 40% of its book value and 1.4x its cash value, we believe Xinyuan’s

valuation remains compelling. In this regard, we are maintaining our Market Outperform rating and $7

price target on the shares of Xinyuan. Our $7 price target is based on the shares trading at 7x our 2011

Non-GAAP EPADS estimate of $0.98. The 7x multiple represents a 14% discount to the average P/E

multiple of 8.2x currently commanded by Xinyuan’s peer group.

Risks

Major risks include: 1) Government regulatory policy risk; 2) Land cost risk; 3) Financing availability; 4)Increasing competition; 5) Ability for geographic expansion; 6) Execution risks; and 7) Country risks

related to operating in China.

Company Description

Xinyuan Real Estate is a residential real estate developer focused on Tier II cities in China. The company

was founded in 1997 in Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan province. Since 2006, Xinyuan has expanded

into six other Tier II cities in China based on a set of criteria including population and urbanization growth

rate, general economic condition, disposable income and purchasing power of residents, anticipated

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. February 28, 2

Page 15: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 15/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

demand and availability of future land supply and prices, and governmental urban planning and

development policies. The seven Tier II cities in which Xinyuan has established operations are Chengdu

in Sichuan Province, Hefei in Anhui Province, Jinan in Shandong Province, Suzhou, Kunshan and

Xuzhou in Jiangsu Province, and Zhengzhou in Henan Province. The company develops large scale

residential projects, which typically consist of multiple residential buildings including multi-layered

apartment buildings, sub-high-rise and high-rise apartment buildings. It also develops small scale

residential properties, and provides property management services for its developments and other realestate-related services to its customers. Xinyuan acquires development sites primarily through public

auctions of government land, which allows it to commence construction relatively quickly after the land

acquisition.

Exhibit 1 XIN comp table

Source: Factset, Rodman & Renshaw research estimate.

Note: None companies except XIN are currently covered by Rodman & Renshaw

Ticker Price Share out Mkt Cap FY09A FY10A FY11E FY09A FY10A FY11E FY10A FY11E

China Resource Land Ltd. 1109-HK 12.64 5,387 68,095 0.90 0.89 1.05 14.0 x 14.2 x 12.1 x 1.4 x 1.3 x

China Overseas Land & Investment 688-HK 12.92 8,173 105,589 0.92 1.09 1.29 14.1 x 11.8 x 10.0 x 2.1 x 1.8 x

New World China Land Ltd. 917-HK 2.96 5,761 17,054 0.51 0.22 0.30 5.8 x 13.2 x 10.0 x 0.5 x -

Shanghai Forte Land Co. 2337-HK 3.44 1,056 3,631 0.20 0.52 0.51 17.6 x 6.6 x 6.7 x 1.0 x 1.0 x

Hopson Development Holdings Ltd. 754-HK 8.62 1,752 15,105 3.77 1.07 1.39 2.3 x 8.1 x 6.2 x 0.5 x 0.4 x

Henderson Land Development Co Ltd 12-HK 49.35 2,176 107,385 - 2.63 2.73 - 18.7 x 18.1 x 0.8 x 0.7 x

Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. 2777-HK 10.44 1,015 10,599 0.90 1.31 1.64 11.6 x 8.0 x 6.4 x 1.5 x 1.4 xBeijing Capital Land Ltd. 2868-HK 2.44 1,021 2,491 0.27 0.43 0.50 9.2 x 5.7 x 4.9 x 0.7 x 0.7 x

 Agile Property Holdings Ltd. 3383-HK 9.82 3,473 34,102 0.52 1.12 1.31 19.0 x 8.7 x 7.5 x 1.6 x 1.6 x

Greentown China Holdings Ltd. 3900-HK 7.79 1,638 12,762 0.64 1.03 1.62 12.2 x 7.6 x 4.8 x 1.0 x 0.9 x

Shui On Land Ltd. 272-HK 3.66 5,212 19,074 0.55 0.37 0.27 6.7 x 9.8 x 13.8 x 0.7 x 0.7 x

Glorious Properties Holdings Ltd. 845-HK 2.09 7,793 16,287 0.38 0.31 0.40 5.5 x 6.8 x 5.2 x 1.0 x 0.9 x

Yuexiu Property Co. Ltd. 123-HK 1.63 9,283 15,132 (0.10) 0.15 0.19 NM 11.2 x 8.8 x 0.8 x 2.6 x

Country Garden Holdings Co. Ltd. 2007-HK 3.09 16,699 51,600 0.13 0.32 0.40 24.3 x 9.8 x 7.8 x 1.6 x 1.8 x

Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. 3333-HK 3.66 15,000 54,900 0.07 0.47 0.65 49.5 x 7.7 x 5.6 x 2.5 x 2.1 x

Sino-Ocean Land Holdings Ltd. 3377-HK 4.76 5,638 26,839 0.34 0.44 0.55 14.1 x 10.7 x 8.6 x 0.8 x 0.9 x

Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. 813-HK 10.64 3,548 37,746 1.02 1.17 1.42 10.5 x 9.1 x 7.5 x 1.2 x 1.2 x

China Housing & Land Development CHLN 2.59 33 85 0.55 0.15 0.71 4.7 x 17.3 x 3.6 x - 1.6 x

Comparable Mean 13.8 x 10.3 x 8 .2 x 1.2 x 1 .3 x

Xinyuan Real Estate Company XIN 2.67 76 202 0.52 0.64 0.98 5.1 x 4.1 x 2.7 x 0.4 x 0.4 x

P/BEPS P/E

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. February 28, 2

Page 16: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 16/38

Page 17: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 17/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

RODMAN & RENSHAW RATING SYSTEM:  Rodman & Renshaw employs a three tier rating system for evaluating both the potentiareturn and risk associated with owning common equity shares of rated firms. The expected return of any given equity is measured onRELATIVE basis of other companies in the same sector, as defined by First Call. The price objective is calculated to estimate the potentiamovement in price a given equity could achieve given certain targets are met over a defined time horizon. Price objectives are subject texogenous factors including industry events and market volatility. The risk assessment evaluates the company specific risk and accounfor the following factors, maturity of market, maturity of technology, maturity of firm, cash utilization, and valuation considerationsPotential factors contributing to risk: relatively undefined market, new technologies, immature firm, high cash burn rates, intrinsic valuweighted toward future earnings or events.

RETURN ASSESSMENT

● Market Outperform (Buy): The common stock of the company is expected to outperform a passive index comprised of all thcommon stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

● Market Perform (Hold): The common stock of the company is expected to mimic the performance of a passive index compriseof all the common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

● Market Underperform (Sell): The common stock of the company is expected to underperform a passive index comprised of athe common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

RISK ASSESSMENT

● Speculative - The common stock risk level is significantly greater than market risk. The stock price of these equities iexceptionally volatile.

● Aggressive - The common stock risk level is materially higher than market level risk. The stock price is typically more volatithan the general market.

● Moderate - The common stock is moderately risky, or equivalent to stock market risk. The stock price volatility is typically in-linwith movements in the general market.

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q10

3

6

9

12

15

2008 2009 2010 2011

05/27/10I:MO:$7

Rating and Price Target History for : Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. (XIN) as of 02-25-2011

Created by BlueMatrix

RATING SUMMARY

Distribution of Ratings TableIB Serv./Past 12 Mos

Rating Count Percent Count Percent

Market Outperform(MO) 190 76.30% 43 22.63%

Market Perform(MP) 47 18.90% 3 6.38%

Market Underperform(MU) 8 3.20% 0 0.00%

Under Review(UR) 4 1.60% 1 25.00%

Total 249 100% 47 100%

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. February 28, 2

Page 18: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 18/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

Investment Banking Services include, but are not limited to, acting as a manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement osecurities, acting as financial advisor, and/or providing corporate finance or capital markets-related services to a company or one of iaffiliates or subsidiaries within the past 12 months.

 ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES

Rodman & Renshaw, LLC. (the "Firm") is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer.

 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONI, Lewis Fan, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subjecompany(ies) and its (their) securities.

None of the research analysts or the research analyst's household has a financial interest in the securities of Xinyuan Real EstatCompany Ltd. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position).

As of Jan 31 2011 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Xinyuan ReaEstate Company Ltd..

Neither the research analyst nor the Firm has any material conflict of interest with Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd., of which thresearch analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.

The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specifinvestment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm,substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services.

The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. for any investment banking services withtwelve months before, but intends to seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking servicewithin three months, following publication of the research report.

Neither the research analyst nor any member of the research analyst's household nor the Firm serves as an officer, director or advisorboard member of Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd..

The Firm does make a market in Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. securities as of the date of this research report.

Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Reproduction without written permission is prohibited. The intraday prices of securities mentioned in this report are as of Feb 28 201Additional information is available to clients upon written request. For complete research report on Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltdplease call (212) 356-0500.

Readers are advised that this analysis report is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell o

the solicitation of an offer to buy. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is noguaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data. Past performancis no guarantee of future results.

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. February 28, 2

Page 19: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 19/38

For definitions and the distribution of analyst ratings, and other disclosures, please refer to pages 6 - 7 of this report

®

May 16, 2011

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. (XIN)EARNINGS UPDATE

CHINA

Market Outperform / Speculative Risk

Lewis Fa212-430-175

[email protected]

1Q11 Update: Below Expectation Quarter; Lowering Price Target to $6

MARKET DATA 5/16/2011Price $2.08

Exchange NYSE

Target Price $6.00

52 Wk Hi - Low $3.39 - $2.05

EV(MM) $242.2

Market Cap(MM) $165.3

Shares Out (MM) 76.9

Public Mkt Float (MM) NA

Avg. Daily Vol 199,411

BALANCE SHEET METRICS

Cash (MM) $213.3

LTD (MM) $187.3

Total Debt/Total Equity 57.10%

Debt/Capital NA

Price/Book Value 0.3x

Book Value/Share $6.95

EARNINGS DATA ($)

FY - Dec 2009A 2010A 2011E

Q1 (Mar) 0.02 0.15 0.16 A

Q2 (Jun) 0.07 0.11 0.24

Q3 (Sep) 0.13 0.10 0.30

Q4 (Dec) 0.31 0.28 0.28

Full Year EPS 0.52 0.64 0.97

Revenue (MM) 449.0 450.0 629.0

VALUATION METRICS

Price/Earnings 4.0x 3.3x 2.1x

Y/Y EPS Growth NM 23.1% 51.6%

INDICES

DJIA 12,548.4

SP-500 1,329.5

NASDAQ 2,337.8

Russell 2000 822.9

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q21

2

3

4

2011

1 Year Price History

Created by BlueMatrix

0

1

2

3

1Q11 Results After delivering company record-setting results in 4Q10, Xinyuan ReaEstate (“Xinyuan”, NYSE: XIN, Market Outperform) announced 1Q1results that mostly missed our expectations. Total revenue decrease17% YoY to $91.8 million, missing not only our estimate of $121.million, but also the company’s own guidance of $120 million announcein late February. Actual contract sales of $98.0 million were down 32%YoY and below the company’s guidance of $115 million. GFA sales wer81,600 square meters (sqm) in the quarter, down 36% YoY. ASP in thequarter was RMB7,908, compared to RMB7,584 in the last quarter anRMB7,713 a year ago. As perhaps the most positive result from the lasquarter, gross margin came in at 27.3%, up about five percentage pointfrom 22.3% a year ago and also higher than our expectation of 24.0%SG&A also came in below our estimate. The actual figure of $7.4 milliowas significantly below our estimate of $9.7 million. Because of lowethan expected expenses and higher than expected margins, adjusted neincome in 1Q11 was $11.6 million, translating to $0.16 EPADS, onmoderately below our respective estimates of $13.0 million and $0.17.

 At the end of March, Xinyuan had $348.6 million in cash and casequivalents (including restricted cash), against $323.5 million of totdebt. Property under development was $669.1 million in 1Q11.

Updated Guidance

Xinyuan provided its updated F2Q11 and FY2011 guidance. For F2Q11the company expects to realize $155-$160 million of contract sale

$140-$150 million of revenue, and net income exceeding $20 million. Fofull year 2011, the company expected to achieve contact sales o$650-$675 million, revenue of $625-$650 million, and net income of $7million.

Maintaining Market Outperform Rating but lower ing Pr  ice Target t$6

We are maintaining our Market Outperform rating on the shares oXinyuan, but tweaking our price target to $6 from the previous target o$7. In the current multiple compression environment for Chinese smacap and real estate companies, we believe it is prudent to take a bmore conservative approach to our valuation. Our new $6 price target based on the shares trading at 6x our 2011 Non-GAAP EPADS estimat

of $0.97.

Risks

Major risks include: 1) Government regulatory policy risk; 2) Land corisk; 3) Financing availability; 4) Increasing competition; 5) Ability fogeographic expansion; 6) Execution risks; and 7) Country risks related toperating and investing in China.

Page 20: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 20/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

Exhibit 1: Xinyuan’s Active Projects

Project

Cost %

Complete

Total Sold to Total Sold to %

Project date Project date Sold                                 

       

                                     

         

         

     

               

             

(m2 000)

Contract Sales

(US$ mill ion)

GFA

Project

 

Source: Company filings and Rodman & Renshaw research

Exhibit 2: Xinyuan Average Selling Price (ASP) Trend

Chengdu Splendid I Chengdu Splendid II Zhengzhou Colour ful Garden Zhengzhou Modern Ci ty Kunshan Internat ional Ci tyGarden

Suzhou International CityGarden

 ASP Trend (in RMB)

2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11

 

Source: Company filings and Rodman & Renshaw research

Our Take 

Revenue shortfall due to both government policy induced wait-and-see attitude and slower than expected

subcontractor construction progress  

’ 

   

      

     

 

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. May 16, 2

2

Page 21: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 21/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

Our expectation for the next three quarters decidedly less gloomy  

     

 

       

 

 

       

Pricing firm and costs under control  

   

lower than expected operating costs, which again reflected management’s discipline. All these factors contribute

 

Maintaining Market Outperform Rating but lowering Price Target to $6

                   

   

   

     

         

currently commanded by Xinyuan’s peer group    

Exhibit 3: Xinyuan Comparables 

Ticker Rating Price     FY09A FY10E FY11E FY09A FY10E FY11E FY09A FY10E FY11E

                         

                       

                             

                                                               

                                                                                                                         

                         

                                                         

                                                                             

                               

                        Comparable Mean 7.0 x 8.5 x 7.0 x

                   

EPS BVPS P/E

 

Source: Factset, Rodman & Renshaw research estimates

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. May 16, 2

2

Page 22: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 22/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

Risks

         

           

Company Description

   

   

 

         

         

           

       

         

           

         

 

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. May 16, 2

2

Page 23: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 23/38

Page 24: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 24/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

RODMAN & RENSHAW RATING SYSTEM:  Rodman & Renshaw employs a three tier rating system for evaluating both the potentiareturn and risk associated with owning common equity shares of rated firms. The expected return of any given equity is measured onRELATIVE basis of other companies in the same sector, as defined by First Call. The price objective is calculated to estimate the potentiamovement in price a given equity could achieve given certain targets are met over a defined time horizon. Price objectives are subject texogenous factors including industry events and market volatility. The risk assessment evaluates the company specific risk and accounfor the following factors, maturity of market, maturity of technology, maturity of firm, cash utilization, and valuation considerationsPotential factors contributing to risk: relatively undefined market, new technologies, immature firm, high cash burn rates, intrinsic valuweighted toward future earnings or events.

RETURN ASSESSMENT

● Market Outperform (Buy): The common stock of the company is expected to outperform a passive index comprised of all thcommon stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

● Market Perform (Hold): The common stock of the company is expected to mimic the performance of a passive index compriseof all the common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

● Market Underperform (Sell): The common stock of the company is expected to underperform a passive index comprised of athe common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

RISK ASSESSMENT

● Speculative - The common stock risk level is significantly greater than market risk. The stock price of these equities iexceptionally volatile.

● Aggressive - The common stock risk level is materially higher than market level risk. The stock price is typically more volatithan the general market.

● Moderate - The common stock is moderately risky, or equivalent to stock market risk. The stock price volatility is typically in-linwith movements in the general market.

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q20

2

4

6

8

10

2009 2010 2011

05/27/10I:MO:$7

Rating and Price Target History for: Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. (XIN) as of 05-13-2011

Created by BlueMatrix

RATING SUMMARY

Distribution of Ratings TableIB Serv./Past 12 Mos

Rating Count Percent Count Percent

Market Outperform(MO) 147 59.50% 37 25.17%

Market Perform(MP) 42 17.00% 4 9.52%

Market Underperform(MU) 8 3.20% 0 0.00%

Under Review(UR) 50 20.20% 14 28.00%

Total 247 100% 55 100%

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. May 16, 2

2

Page 25: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 25/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

Investment Banking Services include, but are not limited to, acting as a manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement osecurities, acting as financial advisor, and/or providing corporate finance or capital markets-related services to a company or one of iaffiliates or subsidiaries within the past 12 months.

 ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES

Rodman & Renshaw, LLC. (the "Firm") is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer.

 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONI, Lewis Fan, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subjecompany(ies) and its (their) securities.

None of the research analysts or the research analyst's household has a financial interest in the securities of Xinyuan Real EstatCompany Ltd. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position).

As of Apr 30 2011 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Xinyuan ReaEstate Company Ltd..

Neither the research analyst nor the Firm has any material conflict of interest with Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd., of which thresearch analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.

The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specifinvestment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm,substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services.

The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. for any investment banking services withtwelve months before, but intends to seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking servicewithin three months, following publication of the research report.

Neither the research analyst nor any member of the research analyst's household nor the Firm serves as an officer, director or advisorboard member of Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd..

The Firm does make a market in Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. securities as of the date of this research report.

Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Reproduction without written permission is prohibited. The closing prices of securities mentioned in this report are as of May 16 201Additional information is available to clients upon written request. For complete research report on Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltdplease call (212) 356-0500.

Readers are advised that this analysis report is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell o

the solicitation of an offer to buy. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is noguaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data. Past performancis no guarantee of future results.

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. May 16, 2

2

Page 26: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 26/38

For definitions and the distribution of analyst ratings, and other disclosures, please refer to pages 3 - 4 of this report

®

May 26, 2011

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. (XIN)COMPANY UPDATE

CHINA

Market Outperform / Speculative Risk

Lewis Fa212-430-175

[email protected]

 Ah, Dividend and Buyback!

MARKET DATA Intraday - 5/26/2011Price $2.16

Exchange NYSE

Target Price $6.00

52 Wk Hi - Low $3.39 - $1.87

EV(MM) $243.0

Market Cap(MM) $166.1

Shares Out (MM) 76.9

Public Mkt Float (MM) NA

Avg. Daily Vol 195,861

BALANCE SHEET METRICS

Cash (MM) $213.3

LTD (MM) $187.3

Total Debt/Total Equity 57.10%

Debt/Capital NA

Price/Book Value 0.3x

Book Value/Share $6.95

EARNINGS DATA ($)

FY - Dec 2009A 2010A 2011E

Q1 (Mar) 0.02 0.15 0.16 A

Q2 (Jun) 0.07 0.11 0.24

Q3 (Sep) 0.13 0.10 0.30

Q4 (Dec) 0.31 0.28 0.28

Full Year EPS 0.52 0.64 0.97

Revenue (MM) 449.0 450.0 629.0

VALUATION METRICS

Price/Earnings 4.2x 3.4x 2.2x

Y/Y EPS Growth NM 23.1% 51.6%

INDICES

DJIA 12,374.6

SP-500 1,320.1

NASDAQ 2,314.2

Russell 2000 820.4

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q21

2

3

4

2011

1 Year Price History

Created by BlueMatrix

0

1

2

3

Dividend and Buyback AnnouncedXinyuan Real Estate (“Xinyuan”, NYSE: XIN, Market Outperformannounced today that its Board has declared a cash dividend of $0.1per ADS, payable on June 20, 2011 to shareholders of record on Jun10, 2011. The company also announced a share repurchase program tbuy back UP TO $10 million of stocks over the next 12 months.

Our Take

We certainly view this as a positive development as we believe it is shareholder-friendly gesture from the management. Based on oucommunication with the company, the dividend should be a recurrinannual event, which can provide shareholders with a stable cash incomstream going forward. The share buyback program, though somewha

open-ended, does suggest the management is sensitive to the sharprice and is trying to be proactive. At the currently depressed share priclevels, (the stock closed below $2 yesterday), such a move is certainlcomforting.

That being said, we believe the current investor apathy towardpublically-traded Chinese real estate developers in the U.S. has mucmore to do with the Chinese macro policy overhang on the entire sectothan with individual companies’ financial performance. In this regard, wdo not expect any U.S.-traded Chinese real estate developers, includingXinyuan, will see sustained share price appreciation unless there aclear signals of policy easing from the Chinese government. Thus wbelieve it is also important for the company management to prudent

manage its cash and save sufficient “dry powder” for its futurdevelopment projects.

Maintaining Market Outperform Rating and $6 Pr ice Target

We are maintaining our Market Outperform rating and $6 price target othe shares of Xinyuan. Our $6 price target is based on the shares tradinat 6x our 2011 Non-GAAP EPADS estimate of $0.97.

Risks

Major risks include: 1) Government regulatory policy risk; 2) Land corisk; 3) Financing availability; 4) Increasing competition; 5) Ability fogeographic expansion; 6) Execution risks; and 7) Country risks related t

operating and investing in China.

2

Page 27: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 27/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

Company Description

   

   

 

         

     

           

       

 

           

         

   

 

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. May 26, 2

2

Page 28: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 28/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

RODMAN & RENSHAW RATING SYSTEM:  Rodman & Renshaw employs a three tier rating system for evaluating both the potentiareturn and risk associated with owning common equity shares of rated firms. The expected return of any given equity is measured onRELATIVE basis of other companies in the same sector, as defined by First Call. The price objective is calculated to estimate the potentiamovement in price a given equity could achieve given certain targets are met over a defined time horizon. Price objectives are subject texogenous factors including industry events and market volatility. The risk assessment evaluates the company specific risk and accounfor the following factors, maturity of market, maturity of technology, maturity of firm, cash utilization, and valuation considerationsPotential factors contributing to risk: relatively undefined market, new technologies, immature firm, high cash burn rates, intrinsic valuweighted toward future earnings or events.

RETURN ASSESSMENT

● Market Outperform (Buy): The common stock of the company is expected to outperform a passive index comprised of all thcommon stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

● Market Perform (Hold): The common stock of the company is expected to mimic the performance of a passive index compriseof all the common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

● Market Underperform (Sell): The common stock of the company is expected to underperform a passive index comprised of athe common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

RISK ASSESSMENT

● Speculative - The common stock risk level is significantly greater than market risk. The stock price of these equities iexceptionally volatile.

● Aggressive - The common stock risk level is materially higher than market level risk. The stock price is typically more volatithan the general market.

● Moderate - The common stock is moderately risky, or equivalent to stock market risk. The stock price volatility is typically in-linwith movements in the general market.

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q20

2

4

6

8

10

2009 2010 2011

05/27/10I:MO:$7

05/16/11MO:$6

Rating and Price Target History for: Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. (XIN) as of 05-25-2011

Created by BlueMatrix

RATING SUMMARY

Distribution of Ratings TableIB Serv./Past 12 Mos

Rating Count Percent Count Percent

Market Outperform(MO) 147 59.50% 38 25.85%

Market Perform(MP) 43 17.40% 5 11.63%

Market Underperform(MU) 8 3.20% 0 0.00%

Under Review(UR) 49 19.80% 12 24.49%

Total 247 100% 55 100%

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. May 26, 2

2

Page 29: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 29/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

Investment Banking Services include, but are not limited to, acting as a manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement osecurities, acting as financial advisor, and/or providing corporate finance or capital markets-related services to a company or one of iaffiliates or subsidiaries within the past 12 months.

 ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES

Rodman & Renshaw, LLC. (the "Firm") is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer.

 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONI, Lewis Fan, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subjecompany(ies) and its (their) securities.

None of the research analysts or the research analyst's household has a financial interest in the securities of Xinyuan Real EstatCompany Ltd. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position).

As of Apr 30 2011 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Xinyuan ReaEstate Company Ltd..

Neither the research analyst nor the Firm has any material conflict of interest with Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd., of which thresearch analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.

The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specifinvestment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm,substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services.

The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. for any investment banking services withtwelve months before, but intends to seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking servicewithin three months, following publication of the research report.

Neither the research analyst nor any member of the research analyst's household nor the Firm serves as an officer, director or advisorboard member of Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd..

The Firm does make a market in Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. securities as of the date of this research report.

Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Reproduction without written permission is prohibited. The intraday prices of securities mentioned in this report are as of May 26 201Additional information is available to clients upon written request. For complete research report on Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltdplease call (212) 356-0500.

Readers are advised that this analysis report is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell o

the solicitation of an offer to buy. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is noguaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data. Past performancis no guarantee of future results.

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. May 26, 2

2

Page 30: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 30/38

For definitions and the distribution of analyst ratings, and other disclosures, please refer to pages 5 - 6 of this report

®

 August 10, 2011

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. (XIN)COMPANY UPDATE

CHINA

Market Outperform / Speculative Risk

Lewis Fa212-430-175

[email protected]

Increasing Price Target to $7 after Strong Q2 Results and Optimist ic Guidance

MARKET DATA 8/10/2011Price $2.22

Exchange NYSE

Target Price $7.00

52 Wk Hi - Low $3.35 - $1.62

EV(MM) $218.9

Market Cap(MM) $170.1

Shares Out (MM) 76.6

Public Mkt Float (MM) NA

Avg. Daily Vol 172,089

BALANCE SHEET METRICS

Cash (MM) $270.3

LTD (MM) $136.0

Total Debt/Total Equity 56.28%

Debt/Capital NA

Price/Book Value 0.3x

Book Value/Share $7.38

EARNINGS DATA ($)

FY - Dec 2010A 2011E 2012E

Q1 (Mar) 0.15 0.16 A   --

Q2 (Jun) 0.11 0.41 A   --

Q3 (Sep) 0.10 0.46 --

Q4 (Dec) 0.28 0.47 --

Full Year EPS 0.64 1.49 1.63

Revenue (MM) 450.0 742.2 919.8

VALUATION METRICS

Price/Earnings 3.5x 1.5x 1.4x

Y/Y EPS Growth 23.1% 132.8% 9.4%

EV/Sales

INDICES

DJIA 10,719.9

SP-500 1,120.8

NASDAQ 2,073.1

Russell 2000 660.2

Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 1

2

3

4

2011

1 Year Price History

Created by BlueMatrix

0

1

2

3

Strong 2Q11 Results Across-the-boardXinyuan Real Estate (“Xinyuan”, NYSE: XIN, Market Outperformdelivered a surprisingly strong 2Q11 performance that exceeded botStreet and our expectations. Total revenue increased 93% YoY to$182.7 million, beating not only our Street-high estimate of $149.1 millioand consensus of $138.5 million, but also the company’s own guidancof $140-150 million announced during the last earnings release. Contracsales reached $225.3 million, up 132% YoY and blowing away thcompany’s guidance of $155-160 million. GFA sales were 183,40square meters (sqm) in the quarter, up 113% from the same period olast year. ASP in the quarter was RMB8,034, compared to RMB7,908 iQ1 and RMB7,683 a year ago. Gross margin came in at a surprisinglstrong 29.8%, up from 21.3% a year ago and also higher than ouexpectation of 27.5%. SG&A were $10.2 million, clearly below oestimate of $12.0 million. Adjusted net income in Q2 was $31.2 milliontranslating to $0.41 EPADS, easily beating our respective Street-higestimates of $18.7 million and $0.24 as well as Street consensus o$16.9 million and $0.22 EPADS.

 As of June 30, Xinyuan had $406.9 million in cash and cash equivalent(including restricted cash), against $318.0 million of total debt. It shoulbe noted that the company’s cash position increased while debt positiodecreased from the end of 1Q11. Property under development wa$695.1 million in at the end of June. On June 20, the company paid cash dividend of $0.10 per ADS. As part of its announced sharepurchase program, Xinyuan bought back 593,600 ADS at a total coof $1.26 million by June 30.

Optimistic Guidance

The company significantly raised its Q3 and 2011 guidance. In Q3Xinyuan expects contract sales to reach $230-250 million, revenue treach $215-235 million, and net income to exceed $35 million. All thesfigures represent significant upsides from our previous estimates. For thyear, Xinyuan now expects to realize total contract sales of $810-$85million, revenue of $740-$780 million, and net income exceeding $10million.

Our Take

 After a somewhat lackluster 1Q11, we expected a bounce-bac

performance in Q2. The actual results and the company’s updateguidance were even better than our already raised estimates. Despitthe government policy headwind, we continue to see market resiliencyevidenced by the company’s continued strong pricing and higher salevolumes. In this regard, we expect Xinyuan will be able to achieve its fuyear 2011 financial guidance and actually believe the risk is to the upsidwith regard to the company’s Q4 performance guidance.

3

Page 31: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 31/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

 

         

     

       

   

 

   

Exhibit 1: Xinyuan Active Projects

Source: Company filings, Rodman & Renshaw Research

Exhibit 2: Xinyuan Average Selling Price Trend (in RMB)

Source: Company filings, Rodman & Renshaw Research 

Project

Cost %

Complete

Total Sold to Total Sold to %

Project date Project date Sold                                 

           

                                       

               

                          

     

             

Total active projects 2,694.8  1,446.9  3,159.2  1,538.4  48.7% 72.7 

GFA Contract Sales

(m2 000) (US$ mill ion)

Project

4,788

6,184

7,929

7,216

9,297

12,298

6,811

5,001

6,680

8,533

7,575

9,422

13,087

7,263

5,266

7,045

11,512

8,217

11,330

14,800

7,321

5,474

6,988

14,739

8,738

10,137

13,255

7,751

Che ngd u Spl en did I Ch engd u Sp le ndi d II Zh en gzho u Co lo ur fu l

Garden

Zhengzhou Modern City Kunshan International City

Garden

Suzhou International City

Garden

Xuzhou Colorful Garden

3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. August 10, 2

3

Page 32: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 32/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

Maintaining Market Outperform Rating while Increasing Price Target to $7   and the company’s updated guidance. 

now expect that Xinyuan’s 3Q11                     

         

  S). We are now introducing our 2012 estimates. For the year, we expect the company’s revenue,

                

real estate policies in China. However we also believe the company’s overall strong financial performance,

   

 

 

       

Risks

         

           

 

Company Description

   

 

 

         

     

     

     

       

 

           

             

 

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. August 10, 2

3

Page 33: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 33/38

Page 34: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 34/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

RODMAN & RENSHAW RATING SYSTEM:  Rodman & Renshaw employs a three tier rating system for evaluating both the potentiareturn and risk associated with owning common equity shares of rated firms. The expected return of any given equity is measured onRELATIVE basis of other companies in the same sector, as defined by First Call. The price objective is calculated to estimate the potentiamovement in price a given equity could achieve given certain targets are met over a defined time horizon. Price objectives are subject texogenous factors including industry events and market volatility. The risk assessment evaluates the company specific risk and accounfor the following factors, maturity of market, maturity of technology, maturity of firm, cash utilization, and valuation considerationsPotential factors contributing to risk: relatively undefined market, new technologies, immature firm, high cash burn rates, intrinsic valuweighted toward future earnings or events.

RETURN ASSESSMENT● Market Outperform (Buy): The common stock of the company is expected to outperform a passive index comprised of all th

common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.● Market Perform (Hold): The common stock of the company is expected to mimic the performance of a passive index comprise

of all the common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.● Market Underperform (Sell): The common stock of the company is expected to underperform a passive index comprised of a

the common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

RISK ASSESSMENT● Speculative - The common stock risk level is significantly greater than market risk. The stock price of these equities i

exceptionally volatile.● Aggressive - The common stock risk level is materially higher than market level risk. The stock price is typically more volati

than the general market.● Moderate - The common stock is moderately risky, or equivalent to stock market risk. The stock price volatility is typically in-lin

with movements in the general market.

Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q30

2

4

6

8

2009 2010 2011

05/27/10I:MO:$7

05/16/11MO:$6

Rating and Price Target History for: Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. (XIN) as of 08-08-2011

Created by BlueMatrix

RATING SUMMARY

Distribution of Ratings TableIB Serv./Past 12 Mos

Rating Count Percent Count Percent

Market Outperform(MO) 157 64.90% 37 23.57%

Market Perform(MP) 54 22.30% 7 12.96%

Market Underperform(MU) 8 3.30% 0 0.00%

Under Review(UR) 23 9.50% 3 13.04%

Total 242 100% 47 100%

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. August 10, 2

3

Page 35: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 35/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

Investment Banking Services include, but are not limited to, acting as a manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement osecurities, acting as financial advisor, and/or providing corporate finance or capital markets-related services to a company or one of iaffiliates or subsidiaries within the past 12 months.

 ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES

Rodman & Renshaw, LLC. (the "Firm") is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer.

 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONI, Lewis Fan, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subjecompany(ies) and its (their) securities.

None of the research analysts or the research analyst's household has a financial interest in the securities of Xinyuan Real EstatCompany Ltd. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position).

As of Jun 30 2011 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Xinyuan ReaEstate Company Ltd..

Neither the research analyst nor the Firm has any material conflict of interest with Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd., of which thresearch analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.

The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specifinvestment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm,substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services.

The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. for any investment banking services withtwelve months before, but intends to seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking servicewithin three months, following publication of the research report.

Neither the research analyst nor any member of the research analyst's household nor the Firm serves as an officer, director or advisorboard member of Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd..

The Firm does make a market in Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. securities as of the date of this research report.

Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Reproduction without written permission is prohibited. The intraday prices of securities mentioned in this report are as of Aug 10 201Additional information is available to clients upon written request. For complete research report on Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltdplease call (212) 356-0500.

Readers are advised that this analysis report is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell o

the solicitation of an offer to buy. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is noguaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data. Past performancis no guarantee of future results.

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. August 10, 2

3

Page 36: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 36/38

For definitions and the distribution of analyst ratings, and other disclosures, please refer to pages 2 - 3 of this report

®

October 14, 2011

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. (XIN)DROPPING COVERAGE

CHINA

Market Outperform / Speculative Risk

William A Iomm212-356-054

[email protected]

XIN - Termination of Coverage

MARKET DATA 10/14/2011Price $1.85

Exchange NYSE

Target Price $7.00

52 Wk Hi - Low $3.35 - $1.55

EV(MM) $190.5

Market Cap(MM) $141.7

Shares Out (MM) 76.6

Public Mkt Float (MM) NA

Avg. Daily Vol 245,339

BALANCE SHEET METRICS

Cash (MM) $213.3

LTD (MM) $136.0

Total Debt/Total Equity 57.10%

Debt/Capital NA

Price/Book Value 0.3x

Book Value/Share $7.38

EARNINGS DATA ($)

FY - Dec 2010A 2011E 2012E

Q1 (Mar) 0.15 0.16 A   --

Q2 (Jun) 0.11 0.41 A   --

Q3 (Sep) 0.10 0.46 --

Q4 (Dec) 0.28 0.47 --

Full Year EPS 0.64 1.49 1.63

Revenue (MM) 450.0 742.2 919.8

VALUATION METRICS

Price/Earnings 2.9x 1.2x 1.1x

Y/Y EPS Growth 23.1% 132.8% 9.4%

EV/Sales

INDICES

DJIA 11,644.5

SP-500 1,224.6

NASDAQ 2,371.9

Russell 2000 712.5

Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 1

2

3

4

2011 2012

1 Year Price History

Created by BlueMatrix

0

1

2

3

We are terminating coverage of Xinyuan Real Estate Company due tthe departure from the firm of analyst, Lewis Fan.

3

Page 37: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 37/38

RODMAN & RENSHAW EQUITY RESEARCH

RODMAN & RENSHAW RATING SYSTEM:  Rodman & Renshaw employs a three tier rating system for evaluating both the potentiareturn and risk associated with owning common equity shares of rated firms. The expected return of any given equity is measured onRELATIVE basis of other companies in the same sector, as defined by First Call. The price objective is calculated to estimate the potentiamovement in price a given equity could achieve given certain targets are met over a defined time horizon. Price objectives are subject texogenous factors including industry events and market volatility. The risk assessment evaluates the company specific risk and accounfor the following factors, maturity of market, maturity of technology, maturity of firm, cash utilization, and valuation considerationsPotential factors contributing to risk: relatively undefined market, new technologies, immature firm, high cash burn rates, intrinsic valuweighted toward future earnings or events.

RETURN ASSESSMENT● Market Outperform (Buy): The common stock of the company is expected to outperform a passive index comprised of all th

common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.● Market Perform (Hold): The common stock of the company is expected to mimic the performance of a passive index comprise

of all the common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.● Market Underperform (Sell): The common stock of the company is expected to underperform a passive index comprised of a

the common stock of companies within the same sector, as defined by First Call.

RISK ASSESSMENT● Speculative - The common stock risk level is significantly greater than market risk. The stock price of these equities i

exceptionally volatile.● Aggressive - The common stock risk level is materially higher than market level risk. The stock price is typically more volati

than the general market.● Moderate - The common stock is moderately risky, or equivalent to stock market risk. The stock price volatility is typically in-lin

with movements in the general market.

Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q30

2

4

6

8

2009 2010 2011 2012

05/27/10I:MO:$7

05/16/11MO:$6

08/10/11MO:$7

Rating and Price Target History for: Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. (XIN) as of 10-13-2011

Created by BlueMatrix

RATING SUMMARY

Distribution of Ratings TableIB Serv./Past 12 Mos

Rating Count Percent Count Percent

Market Outperform(MO) 137 62.80% 33 24.09%

Market Perform(MP) 53 24.30% 7 13.21%

Market Underperform(MU) 5 2.30% 0 0.00%

Under Review(UR) 23 10.60% 3 13.04%

Total 218 100% 43 100%

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. October 14, 2

3

Page 38: XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

8/13/2019 XIN Rodman Renshaw (All Reports)

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/xin-rodman-renshaw-all-reports 38/38

Investment Banking Services include, but are not limited to, acting as a manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement osecurities, acting as financial advisor, and/or providing corporate finance or capital markets-related services to a company or one of iaffiliates or subsidiaries within the past 12 months.

 ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES

Rodman & Renshaw, LLC. (the "Firm") is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer.

 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONI, William A Iommi, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subjeccompany(ies) and its (their) securities.

None of the research analysts or the research analyst's household has a financial interest in the securities of Xinyuan Real EstatCompany Ltd. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position).

As of Sep 30 2011 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Xinyuan ReEstate Company Ltd..

Neither the research analyst nor the Firm has any material conflict of interest with Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd., of which thresearch analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report.

The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specifinvestment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm,substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services.

The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. for any investment banking services withtwelve months before, but intends to seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking servicewithin three months, following publication of the research report.

Neither the research analyst nor any member of the research analyst's household nor the Firm serves as an officer, director or advisorboard member of Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd..

The Firm does make a market in Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. securities as of the date of this research report.

Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Reproduction without written permission is prohibited. The closing prices of securities mentioned in this report are as of Oct 14 201Additional information is available to clients upon written request. For complete research report on Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltdplease call (212) 356-0500.

Readers are advised that this analysis report is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell o

the solicitation of an offer to buy. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is noguaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data. Past performancis no guarantee of future results.

Xinyuan Real Estate Company Ltd. October 14, 2