Www.enviroweather.msu.edu Enviro-weather: A Weather-based pest and crop management information...

www.enviroweather.msu.eduwww.enviroweather.msu.edu

Enviro-weather: A Weather-based pest and crop management information system for Michigan

J. Andresen, L. Olsen, T. Aichele, B. Bishop, J. Brown, J. Landis, S. Marquie, and A. Pollyea


Enviro-weather MissionEnviro-weather is an interactive information system linking real-time weather data, forecasts, and biological and other process-based models for assistance in operational decision-making and risk management associated with Michigan’s agriculture and natural resource industries.

www.enviroweather.msu.edu

System Basics

• 8 Full- and part-time staff• 77 automated weather stations across MI and

WI• Dedicated computer system for collection,

processing, dissemination, and archival of data• System supported by MI Project GREEEN, MI

AgBioResearch, MSU Extension, external grants, corporate/individual sponsorships, and grower contributions

AutomatedWeatherNetwork

via cellmodem

MSUEnviro-weather

National Weather Serviceforecast information

via satellite,Internet

MSUExtension

Informationfor

Growers/Managers

via Internet

via phone,Internet,

other

via Internet

Scouting Input

Evaluated Weather , ClimateApplications and Products

Training

Feedback Loop:Problems, Needs, New Ideas

Enviro-weather Information Flow


Enviro-weather Product Types

Enviro-weather

Plant phenology models

Pest models

Irrigation management models

Weather summaries



Enviro-weather Automated Weather NetworkMarch 2013


Weather Monitoring

• Variables monitored include air and soil temps, rel. hum., precip., solar rad., wind speed and dir., leaf wetness, and soil moisture

• Network utilizes cell IP modems• Obs. available at 5 min., 1 hour, and 24 hour

intervals • New sites sponsored by grants, grower

contributions


Adding New Products

• Enviro-Weather system is modular in design to accommodate new products

• Potential new products identified by work groups or staff/faculty

• Product check list– Method based on sound science– Method tested/validated under Michigan or similar

conditions– Method usable with Enviro-Weather data, system


System Use Statistics2006-2012

Jul-2

006

Nov-2

006

Mar

-200

7

Jul-2

007

Nov-2

007

Mar

-200

8

Jul-2

008

Nov-2

008

Mar

-200

9

Jul-2

009

Nov-2

009

Mar

-201

0

Jul-2

010

Nov-2

010

Mar

-201

1

Jul-2

011

Nov-2

011

Mar

-201

2

Jul-2

012

Nov-2

012

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Monthly Product Requests

Mo

del

req

ues

ts p

er m

on

th


Tree Fruit Survey Results

Survey of Michigan Fruit Growers and the Economic Value of Enviro-weather

Stratum Description N n n-c resp rate weight

1apples gt 1 acre 568 452 348 77.0% 1.632

2tarts gt 1 acre 164 145 109 75.2% 1.505

3sweets gt 1 acre 279 235 179 76.2% 1.559

4apples ge 100 acres 81 81 63 77.8% 1.286

5tarts ge 100 acres 55 55 47 85.5% 1.170

6sweets ge 50 acres 32 32 22 68.8% 1.455

total 1179 1000 768 76.8%

Usage of EW n %

Running %

Yes, I use it myself 300 26.7 26.7I do not, but my fieldman/consultant does 43 3.9 30.6No 779 69.4 100

n %Running

%I have never heard of Enviro-weather 362 47.8 47.8I have heard of Enviro-weather, but have not

visited the website160 21.1 69

I have no Internet access 100 13.3 82.2I have tried to use Enviro-weather, but it is not

useful for me 19 2.5 84.7

Other, please specify 115 15.3 100Total 756 100

If no…

What types of internet connection do you have?

n % Running %

Dialup 24 7.8 7.8Broadband (DSL/Cable) 178 57.0 64.9Smartphone (Cellular) 16 5.1 70.0Satellite 31 10.0 79.9Dialup and broadband 4 1.4 81.3Dialup and smartphone 3 1.0 82.3Broadband and smartphone 48 15.4 97.7Smartphone and satellite 6 1.8 99.5Broadband, smartphone & satellite 1 0.5 100.0Total 312 100.0

N=343

How useful is EW?

Disease predictive models

Current weather information

Pest insect predictive models

Weather summary tables

60 hour forecast

Overnight temperatures

Informational Maps

Links to IPM resources

Crop management models

Soil temperatures

Irrigation scheduling

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Usefulness of Enviro-weather:

Not familiar

"Very" or "Extremely" important

Percent of Responses

Disease predictive models

Current weather information

Pest insect predictive models

Weather summary tables

60 hour forecast

Overnight temperatures

Informational Maps

Links to IPM resources

Crop management models

Soil temperatures

Irrigation scheduling

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Usefulness of Enviro-weather:

Percent responding “very” or “extremely” useful excluding “not familiar”

EW Impacts on Crop Output:Insecticides

Codling Moth Oblique Banded Leafroller

Plum Curculio Oriental Fruit Moth Fruit Fly (Apple Maggot)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%EW Impacts on Yields: Percent Change

-15% or less

-10%

-5%

No impact

5%

10%

15% or more

Per

cen

t o

f U

sers



0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%EW impacts on Crop Quality: Percent Change

-15% or less

-10%

-5%

No impact

5%

10%

15% or morePer

cen

t o

f U

sers

Impact of EW on Number of Insecticide Sprays



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Impact of EW: Number of Sprays

At least 3 more sprays

2 additional sprays

1 additional spray

No change

1 fewer sprays

2 fewer sprays

At least 3 fewer sprays

Per

cen

t o

f U

sers

Codling Moth*

Oblique Banded Leafroller*

Plum Curculio*

Oriental Fruit Moth*

Fruit Fly (Apple Maggot)*

-1.00 -0.90 -0.80 -0.70 -0.60 -0.50 -0.40 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00

Average Change in Sprays

Average Change in Number of Sprays* Denotes statistically different from zero

EW Impacts on Crop Output:Fungicides

Apple Scab Cherry Leaf Spot Fireblight Sooty blotch/ Flyspeck

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%EW Impacts on Yields: Percent Change

-15% or more-10%-5%No impact5%10%+15% or more

Per

cen

t o

f U

sers


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%EW Impacts on Crop Quality: Percent Change

-15% or more-10%-5%No impact5%10%+15% or moreP

erc

en

t o

f U

sers

Impact of EW on Number of Fungicide Sprays


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%Impact of EW: Number of Sprays

At least 3 more sprays 2 additional sprays1 additional sprayNo change1 fewer sprays2 fewer spraysAt least 3 fewer sprays

Per

cen

t o

f U

sers

* Denotes statistically different from zero

Apple Scab*

Cherry Leaf Spot*

Fireblight*

Sooty blotch/ Flyspeck*

-1.00 -0.90 -0.80 -0.70 -0.60 -0.50 -0.40 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00

Average Change in Sprays

Average Change in Number of Sprays

EW Impact on Work Hours

n %Running

%

Decreased it by more than 15 or more 13 4.8 4.8Decreased it by 10 hours 18 6.4 11.2Decreased it by 5 hours 94 33.5 44.7No effect 141 50.3 94.9Increased it by 5 hours 10 3.7 98.6Increased it by 10 hours 3 1.0 99.6Increased it by 15 or more hours 1 0.4 100.0

How has using Enviro-weather products changed the amount of time required to manage your crop during an average work-week during the growing season?

Quantifying the impact on work hours based on $15 per hour for all apple, tart and sweet cherry growers, this amounts to a per grower savings of 750 work hours and $11,250.

Economic Impacts on Production and Costs

Michigan NASS 2001 Bases Impacts on Yield

Production Value Use EW Production ValueProductio

n Value mill lbs $000s % mill lbs $000s mill lbs $000s

Apples 590 114,875 25% 140 27,316 4.8 943.2Tart Cherries 135 26,605 39% 51 9,970 1.8 352.4Sweet Cherries 30 9,515 37% 11 3,400 0.4 120.2

• Impacts are based on rates of adopting EW by commodity and average experienced yield impacts by commodity

• Does not account for quality impacts, which tend to exceed those of yield

• Michigan production increases by 7 million lbs• Michigan sales increase and costs savings result in

statewide economic impact of $1,786,000


Future Directions

• Continued research, new product development• Conversion of dataloggers (CR10X to CR1000)• Revenue generation (value added apps, e.g. smart

phone)• Increasing use of NWS gridded products

– Real time obs. (RTMA)– Forecast products (NDFD)

• Inclusion of climatological statistics

in system products


Summary

• Demand for detailed weather information in IPM is increasing

• Weather-based applications have large potential economic and environmental value

• Sustainable funding mechanisms still needed, including grower contributions


Questions?

Www.enviroweather.msu.edu Enviro-weather: A Weather-based pest and crop management information...

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