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New York State Growth Model for Educator Evaluation
2011–12
July 2012
PRESENTATIONas of 7/9/12
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Today’s Agenda
Background The What, Why, and How of Growth Models and
Measures Using Growth Measures for Educator Evaluation What Data Will Be Available and When?
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Background
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Evaluating Educator Effectiveness
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The What, Why, and How of Growth Models and Measures
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By the End of This Section…. You should be able to:
–Explain why the state is measuring student growth and not achievement
–Describe how the state is measuring growth compared to similar students
–Define a student growth percentile and mean growth percentile
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0
200
400
600
800
Student AStudent BStudent CStudent DStudent E
Ms. Smith
Prior Performance
0
200
400
600
800
Student AStudent BStudent CStudent DStudent E
Ms. Jones
Prior Performance
Prior Year Performance for Students in Two Teachers’ Classrooms
─ Proficiency
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0
200
400
600
800
Student AStudent BStudent CStudent DStudent E
Ms. Smith
Prior Performance Current Performance
0
200
400
600
800
Student AStudent BStudent CStudent DStudent E
Ms. Jones
Prior Performance Current Performance
Current Year Performance of Same Students
─ Proficiency
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Prior and Current Year Performance for Ms. Smith’s Students
Ms. Smith’s Class
Prior Score Current Score
Student A 450 510
Student B 470 500
Student C 480 525
Student D 500 550
Student E 600 650
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2011 2012
Student A
450
High SGPs
Low SGPs
Student A’s Current Year Performance Compared to “Similar” Students
If we compare student A’s current score to other students who had the same prior score (450), we can measure her growth
relative to other students. We
describe her growth as a “student
growth percentile” (SGP). Student A’s SGP is the result of a statistical model and in this example is 45,
meaning she performed better in
the current year than 45% of similar
students.
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Comparing Performance of “Similar” Students
Prior Year Score
Given any prior score, we see a range of
current year scores, which give us SGPs of 1 to 99.
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SGPs for Ms. Smith’s Students
Ms. Smith’s Class
Prior Score
Current Score
SGP
Student A 450 510 45
Student B 470 500 40
Student C 480 525 70
Student D 500 550 60
Student E 600 650 40
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Student Growth Percentiles: True or False?
1. A student with an SGP of 50 performed better than 50% of similar students.
2. A student with an SGP of 80 must be proficient.
3. A student with an SGP of 20 grew less than a student with an SGP of 60.
4. The highest SGP that a student can receive is 99.
5. A student with an SGP of 80 grew twice as much as a student with an SGP of 40.
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From Student Growth to Teachers and Principals
Ms. Smith’s Class
SGP
Student A
45
Student B
40
Student C
70
Student D
60
Student E
40
To measure teacher performance, we find the mean growth percentile (MGP) for his or her students. To find an educator’s mean growth percentile, take the average of SGPs in the classroom. In this case:
Step 1: 45+40+70+60+40=255
Step 2. 255/5=51
Ms. Smith’s mean growth percentile (MGP) is 51, meaning on average her students performed better than 51% of similar students.
A principal’s performance is measured by finding the mean growth percentile for all students in the school.
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Which Students Count in a Teacher’s or Principal’s MGP for 2011–12?
Student has valid test
scores for at least 2011–12 and 2010–11
Student has valid test
scores for at least 2011–12 and 2010–11
Student scores do not
count for 2011–12
Student scores do not
count for 2011–12
Yes
Student meets continuous enrollment
standard for 2011–12
Student meets continuous enrollment
standard for 2011–12
No
Student growth is
attributed to the teacher
and the school
Student growth is
attributed to the teacher
and the school
Yes
No
Expected for 2012–13: students weighted by
duration of instructional linkage
Expected for 2012–13: students weighted by
duration of instructional linkage
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From Student Growth to Teachers and Principals
In order for an educator to receive a growth score, he or she must have a minimum sample size of 16 student scores in ELA or mathematics across all grades taught.
Examples:
–A teacher has a self-contained classroom with 8 students who take the 4th grade ELA and math assessments; this teacher would then have 16 student scores contributing to his or her growth score.
–A teacher has a class with 12 students in varied grades (4th, 5th, 6th) who take the ELA and math assessments for their respective enrolled grade level; this teacher would then have 24 student scores contributing to his or her growth score.
If an educator does not have 16 student scores, he or she will not receive a growth score from the state and will not receive information in the reporting system.
–Educators likely to have fewer than 16 scores should use student learning objectives (SLOs).
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MGPs and Statistical Confidence
8787
Confidence Range
Upper
Limit
Lower
Limit
MGP
• NYSED will provide a 95% confidence range, meaning we can be 95% confident that an educator’s “true” MGP lies within that range. Upper and lower limits of MGPs will also be provided.
• An educator’s confidence range depends on a number of factors, including the number of student scores in their MGP and the variability of student performance in the classroom.
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Pause and Reflect: Mean Growth Percentiles
We talked about:–How to find a mean growth percentile (MGP)–How to interpret an MGP–What students are counted in an MGP–How many student scores are needed to provide an MGP–How a measure of statistical confidence (upper and lower
limits of a 95% confidence range) will be provided with MGPs and why
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Expanding the Definition of “Similar” Students
So far we have been talking about “similar” students as those with the same prior year assessment score
We will now add two additional features to the conversation:
Two additional years of prior assessment scores– Remember—a student MUST have current year and prior year
assessment score to be included
Student-level factors–Economic disadvantage (ED)–Students with disabilities (SWDs)–English language learners (ELLs)
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Adjustments for Three Student-Level Factors in Measuring Student Growth
Student
performance
Teacher
Instruction
Other factors(12–13) Economic
disadvantageLanguage
proficiency
Disability
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2011 2012
Student A
450
High SGPs
Low SGPs
Student A’s Current Year Performance Compared to “Similar” Students
If we compare student A’s current score to other students who had the same prior score (450), we can measure his or her growth relative to
other students. We describe that growth as a student growth percentile (SGP).
Student A’s SGP is the result of a statistical
model and in this example is 45,
meaning student A performed better in
the current year than 45% of similar
students.
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2011 2012
Student A
450
High SGPs
Low SGPs
Expanding the Definition of “Similar” Students to Include Economically Disadvantaged—An Example
Now if student A is economically
disadvantaged, we compare student A’s current score to other students who had the same prior score (450) AND who are also
economically disadvantaged. In
this new comparison group,
we see that student A now has
an SGP of 48.
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Further Information on Including Student Characteristics in the Growth Model
The following slides were developed using sample data from 2010–2011.
–The “combined” MGPs on the charts have been calculated at the educator level (combining all grades and subjects).
–Not all districts provided data linked to teachers for grades 4–8 ELA/Math in 2010–11.
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Teacher MGPs after Accounting for Economic Disadvantage
Taking student-level characteristics into account helps ensure educators with many students with those characteristics have a fair chance to achieve high or low MGPs. For example, note that for teachers with any percent of economically disadvantaged students, teacher MGPs range from 1 to 99.
NOTE: Beta results using available 2010–11 data.
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Teacher MGPs after Accounting for SWD
NOTE: Beta results using available 2010–2011 data.
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Teacher MGPs after Accounting for ELL
Percent of ELL Students in Class
NOTE: Beta results using available 2010–2011 data.
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“Similar” Students: A Summary
“Similar” Student Characteristics
Unadjusted Mean Growth Percentiles
Adjusted Mean Growth Percentiles
Up to Three Years of Prior Achievement
Up to Three Years of Prior Achievement
English Language Learner (ELL) Status
Students with Disabilities (SWD) Status
Economic Disadvantage
Reported to Educators Reported to Educators
Used for Evaluation
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One Last Feature of the Growth Model….
All tests contain measurement error,
with greater uncertainty for
highest and lowest achieving students
All tests contain measurement error,
with greater uncertainty for
highest and lowest achieving students
The New York growth model accounts for measurement error in computing student growth percentiles.
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State Growth Model Summary
Growth model for 2011–12 only for grades 4–8 ELA/Math for teachers and principals
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By the End of This Section…. You should be able to:
–Explain why the state is measuring student growth and not achievement
–Describe how the state is measuring growth compared to similar students
–Define a student growth percentile and mean growth percentile
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Additional Webinars…
Please stop the webinar recording when you reach this slide.
A NEW webinar has been recorded with up-to-date information on “Using Growth Measures for Educator Evaluation”
Posted on the Growth Resources page: http://engageny.org/resource/resources-about-state-growth-measures/
Revised slides and script also posted.
A NEW webinar on “How to Interpret Your Growth Report” will be available on the Growth Resources page soon!
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Definitions SGP (student growth percentile): the result of a
statistical model that calculates each student’s change in achievement between two or more points in time on a state assessment or other comparable measure and compares each student’s performance to that of similarly achieving students
Similar students: students with the same prior test scores, ELL, SWD, and economic disadvantage status
ELLs: English language learners SWD: students with disabilities Economic disadvantage: a student who participates in,
or whose family participates in, economic assistance programs such as the Free- or Reduced-price Lunch Programs (FRPL), Social Security Insurance (SSI), Food Stamps, Foster Care and others
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Definitions High-achieving, low-achieving: defined by the
performance of students based on prior year state assessment scores (i.e., Level 1 = low-achieving, Level 4 = high-achieving)
MGP (mean growth percentile): the average of the student growth percentiles attributed to a given educator
“Unadjusted” MGP: an MGP based on SGPs that have NOT accounted for ELL, SWD, and economic disadvantage status
“Adjusted” MGP: an MGP based on SGPs that HAVE accounted for ELL, SWD, and economic disadvantage status
Growth rating: HEDI rating based on growth Growth score: growth subcomponent points from 0–20
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Definitions Measurement error: uncertainty in test scores due to
sampling of content and other factors Standard error: a measure of the statistical uncertainty
surrounding a score Standard deviation: a measure that shows the spread
of scores around the mean Upper/lower limit: highest and lowest possible MGP
taking statistical confidence into account Confidence range: range of MGPs within which we
have a given level of statistical confidence that the true MGP falls (95% statistical confidence level used for state growth measure)
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