Sustainable Energy Foundation of Sustainable Living Santa Cruz, CA Thursday 2006 July 27 7:00pm Ron Swenson Swensons Law Energy Scoreboard Primary challenges are: Global Warming EROEI Scalability Timing Why leave out Economics? Economics is an instrument of policy. Its the last step in the process: First figure out what works Then create incentives. Atmospheric CO 2 Larsen B Ice Shelf Collapse Feb-Mar 2002 In about 35 days Larger than Rhode Island Totally baffled scientists 1 down, 4 to go Sea Level +6M New York City Long Beach Atlantic City Wildwood Montauk New Haven (380) (850) The Stabilization Triangle: Beat doubling or accept tripling Values in parentheses are ppm. Note the identity (a fact about the size of the Earths atmosphere): 1 ppm = 2.1 GtC 850 ppm 500 ppm Ramp = Delay Flat = Act Now 1.9 (320) (470) (530) (750) (500) (850) Business As Usual GtC/yr Historical emissions Stabilization triangle Based on Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow, August 13, 2004, Science Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year Currently projected path Flat path Historical emissions 1.9 GtC/y 7 GtC/y Seven wedges Wedges O What is a Wedge? A wedge is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere. 1 GtC/yr 50 years Total = 25 Gigatons carbon Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC. A solution to the CO 2 problem should provide at least one wedge. U.S. Wedges Source: Daniel Lashof, NRDC Energy Scoreboard Primary challenges are: Global Warming EROEI Scalability Timing EROEI Energy Returned On Energy Invested ERoEI(field) >> ERoEI(solid, liquid, gas) EROEI for PV EPBT: 5 years Life: 50 years Plus it can be bootstrapped EROEI = 10 30 ~ electric EROEI for Thin Film PV EPBT: 6 months Life: 20 years EROEI = 40 120 ~electric EROEI for Wind EPBT: 3 months Life: 20 years EROEI = 80 240 ~ electric EROEI for Tar Sands Plus Ravaged land Water contamination Extraction uses natural gas Low EROEI Greenhouse gases EROEI = 3? EROEI = 4 12 ~ electric EROEI for Nuclear Plus Terrorism Waste guarded for 10,000+ years Depletion low grade ores Greenhouse gases How do we value a 1,000 + year wasteland? EROEI for Hydrogen Am I missing something?! EROEI = - Corn Ethanol Freeway at Capacity Vehicles Removed PRT Passengers PRT System Solar PRT INDUSTRY 35% TRANSPORTATION 27% RESIDENTIAL 21% COMMERCIAL 17% INDUSTRY 25% TRANSPORTATION 27% BUILDINGS 48% design & innovation passive solar heating passive cooling daylighting siting building shape, color and orientation fenestration location, size and shape shading natural ventilation materials / properties green roofs PV: The Growth Industry Oil declines at 4%/yr(?) PV increases at 50%/yr ? Wake Up!!!