Www.economicsandpeace.org Steve Killelea Chairman, Institute for Economics and Peace 3 rd November...

www.economicsandpeace.org

Steve Killelea

Chairman, Institute for Economics and Peace

3rd November 2010

ISTAT, Rome


The Institute for Economics and Peace


What Does IEP Do?

PolicyPromote and inform public debate with a view to impact public policy by providing

an accessible and high quality forum for discussion through debates, seminars, lectures, dialogues and conferences.

EducationPresent educators with solid empirical data to further study the impacts of peace on

economies. Stimulate the study of the issues by others, and help draw the work of those in related fields.

AnalysisLead research and rigorous theoretical and empirical analysis around the

economies of peace and the Peace Industry. Collaborate with experts internationally.

ConsultingDevelop strategic expertise in the area of peace economics, and conduct client

sponsored research for commercial businesses, foundations and other organizations.

E-publishingPublish research results and policy recommendations widely and freely, including

annual release of the Global Peace Index.


The Global Peace Index


Motivation for focus on Peace

Major challenge facing humanity is sustainability

Challenges are global, urgent and require unparalleled co-operation

Peace is the prerequisite for solving these problems


Why an Index?

Never been done before

Peace is poorly understood

Peace should and can be measured

Through measuring peace its texture can be analysed


Global Coverage

Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela

Albania, Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Uzbekistan

Canada,United States of America

Afghanistan, Australia, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, New Zealand, North Korea, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Algeria, Angola, Bahrain, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo (Brazzaville), Cote d' Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Oman, Qatar, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, Syria, Tanzania, Tunisia, Uganda, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe


Defining Peace

Peace is more than the absence of war. The perfect state would have no police, jails or crime

Defined peace as the “Absence of Violence”

This definition allows for measurements of both internal and external peacefulness

“Positive Peace” is uncovered via statistical analysis with other data sets, indexes and attitudinal surveys


23 Indicators

5 measures of ongoing conflict such as: number of conflicts fought 2003-2008 and number of deaths from organised conflict

10 measures of societal safety and security including: number of displaced people, potential for terrorist acts, number of homicides, number of jailed population

8 measures of militarisation such as: military expenditure, number of armed service personnel, ease of access to small weapons Visits to www.visionofhumanity.org doubled since last year

Weighted on a 1-5 scale

Overall score weighted 60% for internal peace and 40% for external peace


23 Indicators

Uses both quantitative and qualitative indicators

Sourced from highly respected organisations

Estimated by EIU analysts where data is missing

Weighted on a 1-5 scale

Overall score weighted 60% for internal peace and 40% for external peace


23 Indicators

weight

indicator

4 Perceptions of criminality in society

3Number of internal security officers and police 100,000 people

4 Number of homicides per 100,000 people3 Number of jailed population per 100,000 people3 Ease of access to weapons of minor destruction5 Level of organized conflict (internal)3 Likelihood of violent demonstrations4 Level of violent crime4 Political instability4 Respect for human rights

2Volume of transfers of major conventional weapons, as recipient (Imports) per 100,000 people


23 Indicators

weight

indicator

1 Potential for terrorist acts5 Number of deaths from organized conflict (internal) 2 Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP2 Number of armed services personnel per 100,000 people2 Financial support to UN Peacekeeping missions3 Aggregate number of heavy weapons per 100,000 people

3Volume of transfers of major conventional weapons as supplier (exports) per 100,000 people

2 Military capability/sophistication

4Number of displaced people as a percentage of the population

5 Relations with neighboring countries5 Number of external and internal conflicts fought

5Estimated number of deaths from organized conflict (external)


The Index has been endorsed by hundreds of individuals and organizations, including Nobel Laureates, government officials, renowned academics and business leaders.

They include: HH Dalai Lama; Kofi Annan; Archbishop Desmond Tutu; President Martti Ahtisaari; Betty Williams; Muhammad Yunus; Amnesty International; President Jimmy Carter; Professor Joseph Stiglitz; Sir Mark Moody-Stuart; Her Majesty Queen Noor of Jordan; His Royal Highness Prince El Hassan bin Talal of Jordan; Sir Richard Branson and Ted Turner

Global Support


Partners and Uses

Inclusion in SIPRI Yearbook

Case Study for Cranfield University

Inclusion in World Bank data sets and website

Inclusion in OECD website

Partnership with Aspen Institute to promote research outputs

Used in the Ibrahim Index of African Governance

Used in Building Blocks of Peace education curricula of IEP

Inclusion in UNDP Users Guide to Measuring Fragility and Conflict

Inclusion in UN University materials for studies worldwide

Foundation for Global Symposium of Peaceful Nations

Inclusion in Inter-American Development Bank governance indicators database


GPI Methodology


Defining Peace

Absence of war or conflict

If the country is not involved in violent conflicts with neighbouring states or suffering internal wars it has achieved a state of peace

NEGATIVE PEACE

A more complete evaluation of peace should account for the conditions which are favourable to its emergence

Freedom, human rights and justice are included

POSITIVE PEACE CULTURE OF PEACE

The UN has defined a culture of peace as one involving values, attitudes and behaviours that:

reject violence, prevent conflicts

by addressing root causes

solve problems through dialogue and negotiation


and measuring it

Two objectives

scoring model index ranking 149 nations across 23 indicators

correlate and statistically analyze data sets, attitudinal surveys and indexes to identify potential determinants of peace

Measures

Outcome Methodologically sound and unbiased measurement of peace. Provides the raw material for a worldwide debate on peace

Rank the nations of the world by their relative states of peace and facilitate cross-country comparisons

Quantify and measure the importance and possible causality of a range of potential drivers that may create peaceful societies


Methodology Improved year on year

Comparative data available for 2007 to 2010

2010 improvements: Heavy Weapons- Sought expert opinion from SIPRI – now

sourced form Military Balance (IISS) and the UN Register of Conventional Arms

- Categories weighed by destructive capability Displaced Persons- Previously only refugees counted- IDP’s data sourced form Internal Displacement

Monitoring Centre


GPI 2010 Results


The Results


The Results

The 10 Most Peaceful CountriesRank Country Score

1 New Zealand 1.188

2 Iceland 1.212

3 Japan 1.247

4 Austria 1.290

5 Norway 1.322

6 Ireland 1.337

7 Denmark 1.341

7 Luxembourg 1.341

9 Finland 1.352

10 Sweden 1.354


The Results

The 10 Least Peaceful Countries

Rank Country Score

149 Iraq 3.406

148 Somalia 3.390

147 Afghanistan 3.252

146 Sudan 3.125

145 Pakistan 3.050

144 Israel 3.019

143 Russia 3.013

142 Georgia 2.970

141 Chad 2.964

140 DRC 2.925


A Less Peaceful World?Majority of the 23 indicators that constitute the index have risen, indicating an overall decline in the level of peace

The most marked increases in the sum of scores have been in:

The number of homicides per 100,000 people

The likelihood of violent demonstrations

The potential for terrorist attacks

Most of the overall increases in these three indicators were confined to relatively few countries

Political instability has also increased slightly across the world. This proved to be the most influenced indicator – changes were registered in just over 60% of the countries

The most marked decreases in aggregate scores have been in:

The measure of the respect for human rights – slight improvement overall

Estimated number of deaths from organized conflict (external)


The Study of Peace

Country Score, 2010

Ch. In score, 2009-10

Rank, 2010

Ch. In rank 2009-10

Ethiopia 2.444 -0.107 127 +6

Mauritania 2.389 -0.088 123 +6

Hungary 1.495 -0.080 20 +7

Lebanon 2.639 -0.078 134 +3

Haiti 2.270 -0.060 114 +7

Top 5 Fallers

Country Score, 2010

Ch. In score, 2009-10

Rank, 2010

Ch. In rank 2009-10

Cyprus 2.013 0.276 76 -25

Russia 3.013 0.264 143 -2

Philippines 2.574 0.247 130 -10

Georgia 2.970 0.234 142 -3

Syria 2.274 0.225 115 -18

Top 5 Risers


Risers and Fallers Since 2009Top 5 Risers

-0.107 EthiopiaChange in rank: +6

Sharp drop in the number of Ethiopian fatalities resulting from external conflict. Decrease in military expenditure as a % of GDP. Improved assessment of the respect for human rights.

-0.088 MauritaniaChange in rank: +6

Fall in the assessment of internal conflict and violent demonstrations. Improvement in relations with neighbouring countries.

-0.080 HungaryChange in rank: +7

Drop in latest published data on homicide rates. Improved assessment of the respect of human rights.

-0.078 LebanonChange in rank: +3

Fall in the perceptions of criminality in society. Falls in the level of organised conflict and violent demonstrations. Increase in political stability and assessment of the respect for human rights. Decrease in the number of deaths from internal conflict.

-0.060 HaitiChange in rank: +7

Reduction in violent demonstrations and greater respect for human rights. Drop in the number of fatalities from internal conflict.


Risers and Fallers Since 2009Top 5 Fallers

+0.276 Cyprus Change in rank: -25

Changes to our measurement methodologies for two series, aggregate number of heavy weaponry and refugees (now includes internally displaced people) are the major contributors to change.

+0.264 RussiaChange in rank: -2

Increase in violent demonstrations and political instability. Increase in measure of heavy weaponry. Increase in number of deaths from external conflicts.

+0.247 PhilippinesChange in rank: -10

Increase in the perceptions of criminality in society. Increases in the latest data for the homicide rate and proportion of people in jail. Increase in the number of deaths from internal conflict.

+0.234 GeorgiaChange in rank: -3

Increase in violent demonstrations. Decrease in political stability. Increases in military expenditure as a % of GDP and imports of weaponry. Increase in conflict indicator and number of displaced people.

+0.225 SyriaChange in rank: -18

Changes to our measurement methodologies for aggregate number of heavy weaponry a major contributor to the deterioration in the peace score. Also, fall in respect for human rights and increases in homicides and displaced people.


The Results

Geography and Key Attributes Ranking states of peace

1. Small, politically stable, democratic countries top the ranking

15 of the top 20 are Western or Central European Most are members of a supranational body Island nations fare well

Geographical rankings

2. Western Europe far exceeds other regions Western Europe Central and Eastern Europe Asia Pacific Latin and South America Middle East Africa


Four-Year Trends


GPI Indicator Movements 2007 - 2010

Indicator

Score

change

Chang

e

Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP -6.44%

Ease of access to weapons of minor destruction -1.54%

Potential for terrorist acts -0.20%

Respect for human rights -0.16%

Military capability/sophistication 2.56%

Relations with neighbouring countries 2.76%

Number of homicides per 100,000 people 5.13%

Number of deaths from organised conflict (internal) 5.16%

Number of external and internal conflicts fought 15.57%

•Although more countries decreased military expenditure as % of GDP, military expenditure increased•Increased conflicts mainly Afghanistan•Homicide increase mainly 2009 data- improved data


Four Year Trends – Regional Changes

RegionChange in peacefulness

% Change on 2007

Country Average

Sub-Saharan Africa -0.34% -0.01

Middle East and North

Africa

-0.21% 0.00

Latin America 3.02% +0.06

Asia-Pacific 3.48% +0.07

Central and Eastern

Europe

3.97% +0.07

Western Europe 4.13% +0.06

North America 4.27% +0.07

•Sub-Saharan Africa - decrease in ease of access to small weapons and number of conflicts fought and improved relations with neighbouring states.• Middle East & North Africa – increased political stability and a reduction in military expenditure as a percentage of GDP.


Four Year Trends – Top, Bottom Nations

Country Change in peacefulness

% Change on 2007

Score change

New Zealand • • 0.00Finland 4.17% +0.05Ireland 7.58% +0.10Norway 7.93% +0.10Denmark 14.89% +0.18Country Change in

peacefulness

% Change on 2007

Score change

Sudan -7.31% -0.24Iraq -2.95% -0.10Israel 3.48% +0.11Russia 7.17% +0.21Pakistan 19.32% +0.53



Region Change in peacefulness

% Change on 2007

Average country change

G20 3.71% +0.07

ASEAN 3.84% +0.08

OECD 4.78% +0.07

BRIC 5.05% +0.12

EU high-debt countries 5.15% +0.08

South Asia 6.27% +0.11

•All blocs performed worse than the global average of 2% down•G20, OECD: major falls Canada, Turkey, Italy, Mexico•EU high debt countries are Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece



1 being peaceful, 5 being un-peaceful

Overall the world became 2% less peaceful

Publication Year

GPI average Score

Countries whose score has improved

Countries whose score has worsened

Countries with no score change

2007 1.94 • • •

2008 1.92 68 39 13

2009 1.96 36 77 7

2010 1.98 41 75 4


Business and Peace


GPI Correlations with Per Capita Income

For every 10 places a country rises on the GPI:

Per capita income increases by US$3,100

Consumer spending on food and non-alcoholic beverages

increases by US$132

Consumer spending on leisure and recreation increased US$144

Consumer spending on household goods and services increases

by US$87

Consumer spending on housing increases by US$309

Consumer spending on footwear and clothing increases by

US$87

Consumer spending on communications increases by US$42


Economic Impacts of Peace

If it could be demonstrated that peaceful environments had a better propensity for stability, could long term debt be more aggressively priced?

If there was a relationship between peacefulness and growth, would more capital inflows result?

If there was a relationship between peace and growth, would new investment funds be created that invested in areas of the world that had the fastest improving prospects of peace?


Economic Impacts of Peace

Lower riskLower interest ratesLower discount rates on future earnings for investmentsProjects pay off over long periodsLarger portfolio of investment containing more stable investments

Long term planningincreased government spending on infrastructure such

as roads, schools, universities


Business and Peace

Reductions in violence positively impact most businesses Market potential increases with rising living standards Costs reduce Management is more focused on strategic issues

rather than risk mitigation

There are many measures of violence – different types of violence have different impacts on different products and markets

UN Global Compact Survey 80% of senior executives believe that the size of their

markets increase with peace 79% of senior executives believe that their costs

reduce with increasing peace


Monetary Value of Peace


Valuing Peace – How to value peace to the global economy

Cost based on known literature and conservatively estimated

Little literature that estimates many forms of violence

Some literature estimates terrorism at 10% of GDP in 2002

IADB estimates 1.6% to 5% of GDP costs from violence in various Latin

American countries

WHO estimates inter-personal violence in US at 3.3% of GDP

UNDP estimates African civil wars at 2.2% to 3.3% of GDP per year per

conflict

Static Peace – Value shifting from violent industries to Peaceful Industries

Dynamic Peace – Additional value from suppressed or inefficient

economic activity



Year Actual GDP

Dynamic dividend

Static Dividend

Total Dividend

2006 $48,802 $4,027 $2,147 $6,174

2007 $54,975 $4,435 $2,418 $6,853

2008 $60,755 $5,112 $2,673 $7,785

2009 $57,522 $4,889 $2,530 $7,419

Total $18,463 $9,768 $28,231

o Static Peace - Value shifting from violent industries to Peaceful Industries

o Dynamic Peace – Additional value from suppressed or inefficient economic activity

US$ Trillion



Valuing Peace – How to value peace to the global economy

Total four year value of peace – US$28.231 trillion

Assuming the world could be 25% less violent, the total additional

or redirected economic activity would equal US$7.06 trillion over

four years

Additional US$1.75 trillion per annum

What could this activity finance?

Millennium Development Goals US$100B p.a.

EU climate change €48B p.a.

US debt interest US$232B p.a.

Repay Greek debt US$550B


Value of Peace – US Industry Breakdown

US$ Billion

SectorInternal pGDP

External pGDP

Agriculture 7.15 6.22Mining 14.76 12.83Utilities 13.88 12.07Construction 26.38 22.94Manufacturing 74.28 64.59Wholesale trade 37.14 32.29Retail trade 40.16 34.92Transportation and warehousing 18.82 16.36Information 28.21 24.53Finance and insurance 48.30 42.00Real estate, rental, leasing 80.89 70.34Professional, scientific, technical services 49.69 43.21Management of companies and enterprises 12.87 11.19Administrative and waste management services 19.34 16.82Educational services 6.27 5.45Health care and social assistance 46.25 40.22Arts, entertainment, recreation 6.36 5.53Accommodation and food services 17.97 15.63Other services, except government 14.82 12.89Government 83.45 72.57Total US$ 646.96 US$ 562.60 [1] US sectoral data sourced from the Bureau of Economic Analysis


The Violence Crisis

The case of NicaraguaData: 1950 – 2007; real per capita GDP (I$); base year = 2005Source: computed from Penn World Tables 6.3

El Salvador was “lucky”

=> here is the case of Nicaragua

Slide courtesy of Jurgen Brauer


The Violence Crisis

The case of Costa RicaData: 1950 – 2007; real per capita GDP (I$); base year = 2005Source: computed from Penn World Tables 6.3

And here is the case of a country that had no war

=> but its neighbors did



The Violence Crisis

The case of the Dominican RepublicData: 1950 – 2007; real per capita GDP (I$); base year = 2005Source: computed from Penn World Tables 6.3; UNODC (2007)

Blue line:ppp-GDP

Red line:UNODC projection assuming that DOM’s homicide rate were cut in half (to the level of Costa Rica’s homicide rate).



The Violence Crisis

Real per capita GDP (I$); base year = 2005Source: computed from Penn World Tables 6.3

time

Per capita GDP

Actual GDP

Trend line of potential GDP

CumulativeGDP losses

violence post-violence

Index= 100

The pothole diagram



Correlations With Other Indices


Other Indexes

Well Being Indexes

UNDP Human Development Index r = - 0.58

Legatum Institute Prosperity Index r = 0.72

Yale Environmental Sustainability Index r = 0.63

Yale Environmental Performance Index r = - 0.52

Economic Indexes

World Bank Ease of Doing Business Index r = 0.54

World Economic Forum Global Competitive Index r = 0.58

TI Corruption Perception Index r = 0.71

World Bank Knowledge Economy Index r = 0.60

Frazer Institute Economic Freedom Index r = 0.62


Correlations with Global Peace Index

Social Attributes of Peaceful Nations

Aspects of Nationalism

Less likely to see their culture as superior

Believe that their nation’s morality is average in foreign policy

Active Civil Society

More likely to perceive their media as having a lot of freedom

Less likely to believe that their government can limit expression of ideas

More likely to support leaders who take a compromising approach

More likely to believe that women and men make equally good leaders

Respect for Human Rights

More likely to reject the use of torture

More likely to respect human rights




Aspects of Globalization

More likely to believe anyone can work in their county

Less likely to believe that globalization is growing too quickly

What Citizens Think of Other Nations

Peaceful nations are perceived most positively by the citizens of other

nations – Highest correlation of all attitudes

Support for the Use of the Military

Reject the use of torture

Support military action when sanctioned by the UN

More likely to disagree with the need to US military force to maintain

order




Moral and Religious Aspects

Think that their politicians do not need to believe in God

Believe that good and evil are contingent and not absolute

More likely to believe that it is not necessary to believe in God to be

moral

Less likely to believe that globalization is growing too quickly

Economic Attitudes

More likely to believe that anyone can work in their country

Less likely to believe that globalisation is growing too quickly

The strongest correlation was that nations that were perceived positively by

other nations were the most peaceful r = 0.88


Characteristics of Peace


Resilience of Peace

Why do Peaceful nations perform well?

Tolerant and open societies are more likely to learn and adapt

Violence needs reactive responses, peace allows for more forethought

The future is more predictable in peace, allowing for better planning

Peaceful societies are less likely to create alienation

More likely to co-operate and support in times of crisis

Freedom of information allows a better flow of information through

society

Broad education base creates a larger pool of human capital


Structural Aspects of Peace



Well-Functioning Government – GPI Correlations

Index Name Source Correlation coefficient

Worldwide Governance Indicators Voice and Accountability Political Stability Government Effectiveness Regulatory Quality Rule of Law Control of Corruption

World Bank

-0.61-0.87-0.70-0.66-0.76-0.72

Political Democracy Index EIU 0.56Freedom in the World Survey

Freedom House0.57



Well-Functioning Government – Other CorrelationsIndex Name Source Correlation

coefficientPolitical instability Economist Intelligence Unit -0.81Corruption perceptions Transparency International 0.76Freedom of the press Reporters without borders -0.6315-34 year old males as a % of adult population

UN World Population Prospects -0.62

The extent of regional integration Economist Intelligence Unit -0.62GDP per capita Economist Intelligence Unit 0.61Respect for human rights Political Terror Scale -0.60Life expectancy World Bank 0.59Ease of access to weapons of minor destruction Economist Intelligence Unit -0.56Relations with neighbouring countries Economist Intelligence Unit -0.56Mean years of schooling UNESCO 0.55Global Gender Gap World Economic Forum 0.55Level of organised conflict (internal) Economist Intelligence Unit -0.55Human Rights Index Escola de Cultura de Pau -0.51Perceptions of criminality in society Economist Intelligence Unit -0.50



Sound Business Environment – GPI Correlations

Index Name Source Correlation

coefficient

Corruption Perception Index

Transparency

International -0.70

Global Competitiveness Report World Economic Forum -0.59

Economic Freedom of the World

Index Frazer Institute -0.58

GDP per capita EIU 0.57

Ease of Doing Business Index World Bank 0.52



Sound Business Environment – Per Capita Income Correlations Index Name Source Correlation coefficientCorruption perceptions Transparency International 0.83Global Competitiveness Report World Bank 0.77Political instability Economist Intelligence Unit -0.66Human Development Index UNDP 0.63Functioning of government Economist Intelligence Unit 0.61Likelihood of violent demonstrations Economist Intelligence Unit -0.61Life expectancy World Bank 0.59UNESCO mean years of schooling UNESCO 0.57GPI SCORE Global Peace Index -0.57Political Democracy Index Economist Intelligence Unit 0.56Respect for human rights Political Terror Scale -0.56Ease of access to weapons of minor destruction Economist Intelligence Unit -0.54The extent of regional integration Economist Intelligence Unit -0.53Number of homicides per 100,000 people UNODC -0.52Level of violent crime Economist Intelligence Unit -0.5215-34 year old males as a % of adult population UN World Population Prospects -0.51Infant mortality per 1,000 live births World Bank -0.50


Strategic Business Analysis


Peace in Strategic Business Analysis

Business and Peace

Strong correlation with Global Peace Index

Per capita income and peace: r = 0.57

Ease of Doing Business Index: r = 0.52

Business Competitive Index: r = - 0.59

UN Global Compact Business Survey

80% of senior execs believe markets grow with improved

peacefulness

79% think their costs drop with improved peacefulness


Competitiveness and Peace

Faltering marketConsider merit of

Current position

Mature marketExploit currentcompetitive advantage

Nascent marketAvoid building

market presence

Market opportunityExtend or establish

competitive advantage

High

Market Penetration

Low

Low Peacefulness High


Several Traditional Business Tools Might be Considered in Light of a Region’s Peacefulness to Provide Insight

Industry lifecycle

Initial invest takes time to reach break even. This is based on the cost of the investment, the amount of time to become profitable and the size of the profits The level of violence will affect the cost of investment, the length of time to deploy and the ROI

Profit

Time



Competitor profitability

Return

Peace

Through analyzing the return that competitors are getting by the peacefulness of their markets and the momentum of peacefulness within those markets new competitive strategies can be developed



Group A Group B

Business segmentation

What is the relation between price for the same business segment in different markets when rated by peacefulness

Price sales & service product


User Value Based Advantage Can be Considered in Light of a Region’s Peacefulness, Using Several Typical Tools

Many consumers view peace as highly desirable – how can they be viewed as a consumer segment, what are their emotional needs and how can products be created to fulfill their needs

Customer segmentationCustomer buying process

TheGatekeepers

YoungSocials

BusyParents Domestics

ActiveTeens

MatureUninvolved

Need

Search

Buy

Validate


Discontinuous Forces of Change – Including Peace Can Be Examined Using Several Tools

A business, product or market is affected by many factors outside a company’s control such as government policies, corruption, rule of law. Peace is a proxy for order, peaceful markets will be more transparent therefore easier to deconstruct and easier to understand

Deconstruction audit


Questions and Answers

Www.economicsandpeace.org Steve Killelea Chairman, Institute for Economics and Peace 3 rd November...

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