WST PhD presentation for PenTAG 17may11
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Transcript of WST PhD presentation for PenTAG 17may11
Will Stahl-Timmins
17th May 2011
Information Graphics in
Health Technology Assessment
Information Graphics
maximumvalue
minimumvalue
upperquartile
median
lowerquartile
maximumvalue
minimumvalue
upperquartile
median
lowerquartile
PhD research intro
A journey
My PhD (so far)
Opportunities
PhD research intro
A journey
My PhD (so far)
Opportunities
Health Technology Assessment
Scientific
Evidence
Medical
Practice
Health Policy
HTA
EBM
Virtual presentations of information, which use graphical elements (eg position, colour, size, etc) to present scientific evidence, informing health policy-making in terms of recommendations for
the adoption of specific health interventions.
Information Graphics in
Health Technology Assessment
How should information graphics be designed, produced and used in health technology
assessment?
Research Question
NICE interviews
TAR review
Design & critique
SOC test
COGS test
Methodsstudy
Methodsstudy
NICE interviews
Design & critique
SOC test
COGS test
TAR review
TAR review
• 50 of 98 NICE TAR reports reviewed
• dated Oct 2003 - Nov 2007
• content analysis
• graphics categorised
• 965 graphics used
• 965 graphics used
• graphics in every report but one
• 965 graphics used
• graphics in every report but one
• 0.20 graphics per page
• 965 graphics used
• graphics in every report but one
• 0.20 graphics per page
• 0.58 tables per page
• 965 graphics used
• graphics in every report but one
• 0.20 graphics per page
• 0.58 tables per page
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0GRAPHICS
PER PAGETABLESPER PAGE
TIME
SER
IES
102
CEAC
124
THRE
SHOL
D AN
ALYS
IS
37
OTHE
R
38
STAT
E TR
ANSI
TION
78
DECI
SON
TREE
41
OTHE
R
5
BAR
CHAR
T
88
SCAT
TER
PLOT
55
OTHE
R
44
FORE
ST P
LOT
331
OTHE
R
22
OTHER
AREA/POSITION
FLOW
LINE
124
301
187
353
AREA/POSITION
LINE
FLOW
OTHER
TIME SERIES
CEAC
THRESHOLD
OTHER
STATE TRANSITION
DECISION TREE
OTHER
BAR CHART
SCATTER PLOT
OTHER
FOREST PLOT
OTHER
INTRO/BACKG.
SYSTEM.REVIEWMETHODS
SYSTEM.REVIEWRESULTS
MODELREVIEWS
MODELMETHODS
MODELRESULTS
CONC. APPEN-DICES
10
10
3
3
3
5
6
6
1
1
1
5
8
5
8
8
31
1 1
1 11
11
1
14
4
2
20
25
2
2
2 2 2
2
2
2
10
30
8
10
16
4
4
41
1
9
2
2
2
1
1
2
14
7
5040302010
ALL CALCULATIONS FOR CIRCLE SIZES ARE AREA-BASED. SO,
A CIRCLE REPRESENTING 50 REPORTS HAS A DIAMETER OF 10mm,
AND AN AREA OF 7.9mm2. A CIRCLE REPRESENTING 25 REPORTS
HAS AN AREA OF 3.9mm2 AND A DIAMETER OF 7.1mm.
USED IN NICE-COMMISSIONED TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT REPORTS, 2003-2007
CIRCLES REPRESENT THE NUMBER OF REPORTS THAT USED A TYPE OF GRAPHIC AT LEAST ONCE, BY REPORT SECTION
TAR review
Design & critique
SOC test
COGS test
Methodsstudy
NICE interviews
NICE technical advisorstelephone interviews - needs assessment
• 5 interviews
• ~30 minutes
• gist transcribed
• framework analysis
• Looking for instances of:- complexity (Remus, 1984; 1987)
- summary/overview needed (Tufte 2001)
- comparison needed (Spence 2007)
- time limited (Resnikoff, 1989)
- selective focussing needed (Thomas, 2005)
• Looking for instances of:- complexity (Remus, 1984; 1987)
- summary/overview needed (Tufte 2001)
- comparison needed (Spence 2007)
- time limited (Resnikoff, 1989)
- selective focussing needed (Thomas, 2005)
• Looking for instances of:- complexity (Remus, 1984; 1987)
- summary/overview needed (Tufte 2001)
- comparison needed (Spence 2007)
- time limited (Resnikoff, 1989)
- selective focussing needed (Thomas, 2005)
“It’s difficult - because it depends on the individual appraisal”
Some things were thought to lead to complex data included:
- Multiple outcome measures
- Many subgroups
- Sequential treatments
- Mixed treatment comparisons
- Many variables in SA
- Many disease states in model
• Looking for instances of:- complexity (Remus, 1984; 1987)
- summary/overview needed (Tufte 2001)
- comparison needed (Spence 2007)
- time limited (Resnikoff, 1989)
- selective focussing needed (Thomas, 2005)
• Looking for instances of:- complexity (Remus, 1984; 1987)
- summary/overview needed (Tufte 2001)
- comparison needed (Spence 2007)
- time limited (Resnikoff, 1989)
- selective focussing needed (Thomas, 2005)
“In terms of [presenting a large] quantity of information, then the problem is usually with the clinical effectiveness, and summarising that.”
Data must be split over several pages, or slides.
Also sensitivity analysis of models mentioned.
• Looking for instances of:- complexity (Remus, 1984; 1987)
- summary/overview needed (Tufte 2001)
- comparison needed (Spence 2007)
- time limited (Resnikoff, 1989)
- selective focussing needed (Thomas, 2005)
• Looking for instances of:- complexity (Remus, 1984; 1987)
- summary/overview needed (Tufte 2001)
- comparison needed (Spence 2007)
- time limited (Resnikoff, 1989)
- selective focussing needed (Thomas, 2005)The most commonly mentioned type of data that needed to be compared to another was the ICER, the overall measure of the cost-effectiveness of an intervention.
One interviewee noticed that it was frequently necessary in committee meetings to “flip backwards and forwards” between slides when questions were asked about the certainty of evidence.
• Looking for instances of:- complexity (Remus, 1984; 1987)
- summary/overview needed (Tufte 2001)
- comparison needed (Spence 2007)
- time limited (Resnikoff, 1989)
- selective focussing needed (Thomas, 2005)
• Looking for instances of:- complexity (Remus, 1984; 1987)
- summary/overview needed (Tufte 2001)
- comparison needed (Spence 2007)
- time limited (Resnikoff, 1989)
- selective focussing needed (Thomas, 2005)
When asked if time was limited (in any part of the appraisal process), interviewees responded:
“Time is always limited”
or
“Yes, is the short answer!”
All five interviewees stated that time was always limited for decision-makers to familiarise themselves with the necessary information before an appraisal committee.
• Looking for instances of:- complexity (Remus, 1984; 1987)
- summary/overview needed (Tufte 2001)
- comparison needed (Spence 2007)
- time limited (Resnikoff, 1989)
- selective focussing needed (Thomas, 2005)
• Looking for instances of:- complexity (Remus, 1984; 1987)
- summary/overview needed (Tufte 2001)
- comparison needed (Spence 2007)
- time limited (Resnikoff, 1989)
- selective focussing needed (Thomas, 2005)
Most interviewees seemed very uncomfortable about the idea.
“it’s really not fair, on- it’s not right to give some of them extra detail.”
NICE interviews
TAR review
SOC test
COGS test
Methodsstudy
Design & critique
10 information graphics
The Friday Information Graphic
Peninsula Technology Assessment Group
www.pms.ac.uk/pentag
Noy Scott HouseBarrack Road
Exeter EX2 5DW
Information Graphics in Health Technology Assessment
www.pms.ac.uk/infographics
Will [email protected]+44 (0) 1392 406 967 1
16th Oct 2009
Link diagrams for showingconnections between search
strategies in multiple systematic reviews
1. Small multiple techniques including Sankey diagrams for overview of studies in a systematic review
2. Two-way sensitivity analysis matrix / bubble chart
3. Parallel coordinates for probabilistic sensitivity analysis
4. Technology assessment report graphical overview
5. Sankey Markov overview
6. ‘Whirlpool’ display for enhancing tornado diagram in deterministic sensitivity analysis
7. Survival synthesis bubble chart
8. Distribution-based forest plot
9. Search strategy link diagram
10. Individual patient display for discrete event simulation
Evaluation?
NICE interviews
TAR review
Design & critique
SOC test
COGS test
Methodsstudy
graphical presentationnumerical presentation
online decision task study
gradually increasing decision complexity (subgroups)
measurements: decision accuracy, time & preference
measurements test (experiment)
sample: generalinternet-usingpublic - respondent-driven sample
http://www.pms.ac.uk/infographics/
online decision task study
gradually increasing decision complexity (subgroups)
measurements: decision accuracy, time & preference
measurements test (experiment)
sample: generalinternet-usingpublic - respondent-driven sample
http://www.pms.ac.uk/infographics/
online decision task study
gradually increasing decision complexity (subgroups)
measurements: decision accuracy, time & preference
measurements test (experiment)
sample: generalinternet-usingpublic - respondent-driven sample
online decision task study
gradually increasing decision complexity (subgroups)
measurements: decision accuracy, time & preference
measurements test (experiment)
sample: generalinternet-usingpublic - respondent-driven sample
seed 1
seed 2
seed 3
25+ participants...
online decision task study
gradually increasing decision complexity (subgroups)
measurements: decision accuracy, time & preference
measurements test (experiment)
sample: generalinternet-usingpublic - respondent-driven sample
single group males and females low, medium, high riskmales and females
increasing complexity
online decision task study
gradually increasing decision complexity (subgroups)
measurements: decision accuracy, time & preference
measurements test (experiment)
sample: generalinternet-usingpublic - respondent-driven sample
measurements test (findings)
measurements test (findings)
Study Duration: 36 days (15th June - 21st July 2009)
measurements test (findings)
Study Duration: 36 days (15th June - 21st July 2009)
244 entries were recorded during this time.
measurements test (findings)
Study Duration: 36 days (15th June - 21st July 2009)
244 entries were recorded during this time.
48 excluded as possible duplicates, leaving 196 for the analysis
measurements test (findings)
Study Duration: 36 days (15th June - 21st July 2009)
244 entries were recorded during this time.
48 excluded as possible duplicates, leaving 196 for the analysis
99 participants received the graphical presentation first. 97 received the numerical one first.
did notcomplete
task 1 (N=19)
did not completetask 2 (N=7)
did not completetask 3 (N=3)
did not completedetails collection
(N=6)
did not completetask 4 (N=7)
did not completetask 6 (N=2)
did not give preference (N=2)
did notcompletetask 1 (N=22)
did not completetask 2 (N=7)
did not completetask 3 (N=2)
did not completedetails collection(N=2)
did not completetask 4 (N=2)
did not completetask 6 (N=2)
did not completetask 5 (N=2)
did not give preference (N=5)
Detailscollection
Task 1
Task 2
Task 3
Task 4
Task 5
Task 6
Preferencecollection
38 people gave apreference for thenumerical display
43 people gave apreference for thegraphical display
25 people liked the displays
equally
Numerical first (N=97) Graphical first (N=99)
Randomised to receive:
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6
Average Deaths (mean)Numerical - Graphical group
Graphical - Numerical group
Min. Possible Deaths 50745015
Max. Possible Deaths 7224 7224
4748
7224
5920
7787
5466
7787
5114
7787
N=78N=77
N=71N=70
N=69N=67
N=65N=54
N=63N=54
N=61N=52
mean (g-n group)
95% confidence
mean (n-g group)
95% confidence
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6
Average Times (mean)Numerical - Graphical
Graphical - Numerical
N=78N=77
N=71N=70
N=69N=67
N=65N=54
N=63N=54
N=61N=52
0 seconds
200 seconds
mean (n-g group)
95% confidence
mean (g-n group)
95% confidence
NumericalPreference
Undecided GraphicalPreference
0secs
gra
ph.
tas
k
num
. tas
k
gra
ph.
tas
k
num
. tas
k
gra
ph.
tas
k
num
. tas
k
20mins
rs = .484
p < 0.05
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6
Average Times (mean)Numerical - Graphical
Graphical - Numerical
N=78N=77
N=71N=70
N=69N=67
N=65N=54
N=63N=54
N=61N=52
0 seconds
200 seconds
mean (n-g group)
95% confidence
mean (g-n group)
95% confidence
graphical presentationnumerical presentation
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6
Average Times (mean)Numerical - Graphical
Graphical - Numerical
N=78N=77
N=71N=70
N=69N=67
N=65N=54
N=63N=54
N=61N=52
0 seconds
200 seconds
mean (n-g group)
95% confidence
mean (g-n group)
95% confidence
graphical presentationnumerical presentation
“in this case, i think the graphical plus the numerical makes for more confustion. one or the other is sufficient”
“[the graphical presentation]seemed more confusing - too manty differnt elements to look at - visual noise”
“I found the screen cluttered.”
Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Y6
Average Times (mean)Numerical - Graphical
Graphical - Numerical
N=78N=77
N=71N=70
N=69N=67
N=65N=54
N=63N=54
N=61N=52
0 seconds
200 seconds
mean (n-g group)
95% confidence
mean (g-n group)
95% confidence
graphical presentationnumerical presentation
“in this case, i think the graphical plus the numerical makes for more confustion. one or the other is sufficient”
“[the graphical presentation]seemed more confusing - too manty differnt elements to look at - visual noise”
“I found the screen cluttered.”
NICE interviews
TAR review
Design & critique
SOC test
Methodsstudy
COGS test
COGS (Clinical effectiveness Overview Graphical Summary
Task-based cognitive interviewing
Speak-aloud protocol
9 expert users (HTA systematic reviewers)
Randomised, sequencial comparison to report
Quantitative results (time and accuracy)
Qualitative results (actions and words of participants - framework analysis)
COGS test
TASK
1reportgivenfirst
graphicgivenfirst
TASK
2TASK
3TASK
4
TASK
5TASK
6TASK
7TASK
8TASK
1TASK
2TASK
3TASK
4
TASK
5TASK
6TASK
7TASK
8TASK
9TASK
10TASK
11TASK
12
Randomised, crossover design
12 tasks
1 4 5 8 9 2 3 6 7
24.1%
6.9%9.3%
17.9%
12.0%13.5% 12.3%
16.4% 17.0%
COGS display report section
Task 4: Can you tell me about selection bias in the Peters et al. (2007) trial please?
Task 8: Of the unilateral cochlear implants vs non-technological support trials, which reported at least one significant outcome measure, and which measures were these?
1 4 5 8 9 2 3 6 7
15.0%
18.2%
13.3%15.1%
32.4%
5.4% 6.3%7.9%
5.1%
COGS displayreport section
!"#$%&'()*
+&,-.*,/0.*12&!"#$%#&$&'(#&')*#&+,-.
345
675
645
75
45
/00$0#1'0)2#34"#56
two-sample t(69) = 4.4
p < 0.001
task accuracy
COGS: 74.3%
report: 46.4%
c2 (1, N = 63) = 5.12, p = 0.024
Those given COGS first took a mean of 99.5% of their COGS task time with the report.
Those given the report first took a mean of 268.5% of their COGS task time with the report.
two-sample t(7) = 4.0, p = 0.005
Those given COGS first took a mean of 99.5% of their COGS task time with the report.
Those given the report first took a mean of 268.5% of their COGS task time with the report.
two-sample t(7) = 4.0, p = 0.005
Interview 8:
“I would say I got much more of an overview, just from looking at that graphical summary”
Interview 3:
(pointing to graphic)
“This really helps to have all of those elements brought together, so you can get a more holistic view of where is it from and how big is it, what’s the study design.”
Interview 1:
“I speculate that I would have had a much, much less detailed idea of the quality of the evidence if I’d been confronted with that [the report] first.”
familiar-isation 1
display 1display 1
task 1
task 2
task 3
task 4
generalreliability 1
familiar-isation 2
display 2
task 5
task 6
task 7
task 8
generalreliability 2
familiar-isation 3
display 3
task 9
task 10
task 11
task 12
probe
useful for this review?
general questions
useful for other reviews?
validate tasks
interactive version
usingCOGS
using report
keystated preference for COGSstated preference for reportdid not state preference during task
familiar-isation 1
display 1display 1
task 1
task 2
task 3
task 4
generalreliability 1
familiar-isation 2
display 2
task 5
task 6
task 7
task 8
generalreliability 2
familiar-isation 3
display 3
task 9
task 10
task 11
task 12
probe
useful for this review?
general questions
useful for other reviews?
validate tasks
interactive version
usingCOGS
using report
keystated preference for COGSstated preference for reportdid not state preference during task
Interview 7:
“I do think [the overall quality of the evidence is] easier to see with this, actually. It’s a good way of presenting it.”
Interview 2:
“again, I’m going to use the graphical summary because it’s far more useful [for this task], I think.”
familiar-isation 1
display 1display 1
task 1
task 2
task 3
task 4
generalreliability 1
familiar-isation 2
display 2
task 5
task 6
task 7
task 8
generalreliability 2
familiar-isation 3
display 3
task 9
task 10
task 11
task 12
probe
useful for this review?
general questions
useful for other reviews?
validate tasks
interactive version
usingCOGS
using report
keystated preference for COGSstated preference for reportdid not state preference during task
familiar-isation 1
display 1display 1
task 1
task 2
task 3
task 4
generalreliability 1
familiar-isation 2
display 2
task 5
task 6
task 7
task 8
generalreliability 2
familiar-isation 3
display 3
task 9
task 10
task 11
task 12
probe
useful for this review?
general questions
useful for other reviews?
validate tasks
interactive version
usingCOGS
using report
keystated preference for COGSstated preference for reportdid not state preference during task
Preferred elements (N):
The outcomes display (2)
The quality grid (2)
Follow-up display (1)
Being able to compare characteristics, quality and outcomes together (1)
Being able to compare characteristics between studies (1)
The study design symbols (3)
Age display (1)
COGS test - conclusions
Search time reduced - however, there was less information available overall in COGS.
Gives overview
Failed to present study designs successfully - revisions to key needed
Different intervention areas will need different data
pre/post design (same cohort is measured before
and a er intervention).
retrospective non-randomised cohort study design
survey design
cross-sectional /non-randomised
cohort design
pre-interventionN = 29
post-interventionN = 20
pre-interventionN = 7
post-interventionN = 2
N = 49
Intervention N = 29
Control N = 20
Intervention N = 29
Control N = 20 Control N = 2
Intervention N = 7
N = 49 N = 9
Intervention N = 29
Control N = 20
Intervention N = 7
Control N = 2
randomised design
Height of arrow is proportional to N (number of people tested)
Design/size arrows
larger study smaller study
Control N = 2
Intervention N = 7
N = 9
Intervention N = 29
Control N = 20
cross-sectionaldesign (no follow-up)
Intervention N = 29
Control N = 205 year follow-up
Intervention N = 29
Control N = 2012 year follow-up
0 yrslength of follow-up
5 10 10
0yr 5 10 15
N = 43
Intervention N = 21
Control N = 22
CAP
CDT
CID
CNC
CPT
CUN
YES
PFM
WT
GAS
PG
SL
outcome measures follow-up
55 75 95
ADAS
-cog
MM
SE SIB
othe
rAD
CS-A
DL
DAD PDS
othe
rNPI
othe
rCI
BIC
GD
SCD
RAD
CS-C
GIC
QoLauthor ageslocation
design, size & follow-up
studyquality
cog
0yr 1 2
no. ofcentres
0 10 20 30
baselineMMSE sex
outcome measures usedfunc be glo
55 75 95
ADAS
-cog
MM
SESIB
othe
rAD
CS-A
DL
DAD
PDS
othe
rNPI
othe
rCI
BIC
GD
SCD
RAD
CS-C
GIC
QoL
0yr 1 2 0 10 20 30 cog func be glo
N = 161
Donepezil 1mg N = 42 M FRandCharBlindAnaly
N = 473
M F
M F
RandCharBlindAnaly
M F
M F
RandCharBlindAnaly
Rogers et al.
1998 (B)
Rogers &
1996? Donepezil 3mg N = 40
Donepezil 5mg N = 39Placebo N = 40
Donepezil 5mg N = 154
Placebo N = 162
N = 468
Donepezil 5mg N = 157
Placebo N = 153
M FM FM F
Rogers et al.
1998 (A)Donepezil 10mg N = 157
M F
Donepezil 10mg N = 158M F
M F
M F
RandCharBlindAnaly
M FM F
RandCharBlindAnaly
M F
M F
RandCharBlindAnaly
M F
M F
RandCharBlindAnaly
N = 818
Donepezil 5mg N = 271
Placebo N = 274
N = 60
Donepezil 5mg (D)
Placebo (p)
N = 268
Donepezil 5mg N = 134
Placebo N = 129
N = 431
Donepezil 10mg N = 214
Placebo N = 217
Burns et al.
1999
Greenberg et al.
2000
Homma et al.
2000
Mohs et al.
2001
Donepezil 10mg N = 273M F
group 1 (p-D-p-p) N=30group 2 (p-p-D-p) N=30
1mg3mg5mg
5mg
10mg
5mg10mg
5mg10mg
NICE interviews
TAR review
Design & critique
COGS test
Methodsstudy
SOC test
State Occupancy Charts (SOCs)
temozolomide vs placebofor the treatment of newly
diagnosed high-grade glioma
1 — State Occupancy Chart
2 — State Occupancy & Absolute Quality of Life
3 — State Occupancy & Absolute Costs Per Person
4 — Incremental State Occupancy
5 — Incremental QALYs
6 — Incremental Costs
State Occupancy Charttreatment arm
state occupancy
– surgery (week 1)– post-op recovery (weeks 2- 6)– radiotherapy (weeks 7-12)– stable disease (week 13+)– progressive disease– death
placebo armstate occupancy
!is graphic shows the number of simulated people in the six di"erent states of the model, over the 260 one-week cycles of the model.
During the #rst week of treat-ment, all of the people in the model were assumed to undergo surgery, which is represented with a seperate state in the model.
From weeks 2-6, patients can either be in a post-operation recovery (treatment-free) state, or move to death in any of these #ve weeks.
In weeks 7-12, patients will undergo radiotherapy, have progressive disease or be dead.
From week 13 onwards, the model becomes a fairly typical three-state model, with patients either in a stable state, having progressive disease, or dead.
10% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
week 13+ stable/progressive/death
weeks 2-6 post-op recoveryweeks 7-12 radiotherapy
week 1 surgery
week26
week13
week 7week 2week 1
week39
week52
week65
week78
week91
week104
week117
week130
week143
week156
week169
week182
week195
week208
week221
week234
week247
week260
week26
week39
week52
week65
week78
week91
week104
week117
week130
week143
week156
week169
week182
week195
week208
week221
week234
week247
week260
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
week 13+ stable/progressive/death
weeks 2-6 post-op recoveryweeks 7-12 radiotherapy
week 1 surgery
week26
week39
week52
week65
week78
week91
week104
week117
week130
week143
week156
week169
week182
week195
week208
week221
week234
week247
week260
week26
week13
week 7week 2week 1
week39
week52
week65
week78
week91
week104
week117
week130
week143
week156
week169
week182
week195
week208
week221
week234
week247
week260
utility of 1 (per person)
utility of 0
utility of 0.5
!is information graphic shows the absolute quality of life experienced by the simulated patients in the model. !e shades of grey provide a scale from black (a utility of 1 per person) to white (a utility of 0 per person).
!ese shades of grey are presented in bars whose length correspond to the number of people in that state in the model during that week, as in graphic 1 — State Occupancy.
!e slowly lightening e"ect in the progressive state is caused by the gradual decomposition of utility values in this state in the model. !e simulated patients experience less quality of life the longer they spend in this state. !e values presented here are the average (mean) of the utility scores experienced by the cohort in that week of the model.
State Occupancy & Absolute Quality of Life
treatment armplacebo arm
2
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
week 13+ stable/progressive/death
weeks 2-6 post-op recoveryweeks 7-12 radiotherapy
week 1 surgery
week26
week39
week52
week65
week78
week91
week104
week117
week130
week143
week156
week169
week182
week195
week208
week221
week234
week247
week260
week26
week13
week 7week 2week 1
week39
week52
week65
week78
week91
week104
week117
week130
week143
week156
week169
week182
week195
week208
week221
week234
week247
week260
£3000 per person
£0 per person
£1500 per person
!is information graphic shows the absolute costs incurred per person in the model, on a scale from black (£3000 per person) to white (£0 per person).
!ese shades of grey are presented in bars whose length correspond to the number of people incurring that cost in that state in the model, as in graphic 1 — State Occupancy.
!e small dark bars appearing between the progressive and death states represent the one-o" costs assigned to death in the model. !e length of these bars is again proportional to the number of people dying during that week of the model.
Similar dark boxes appear between the stable and progressive states to indicate the higher costs assigned to a patient’s #rst week in the progressive state.
Costs for surgery in week 1 are o" the scale at £5953 per person, but this cost is identical in both arms of the model.
State Occupancy & Absolute Costs Per Person
treatment armplacebo arm
3
week 13+ stable/progressive/death
weeks 2-6 post-op recoveryweeks 7-12 radiotherapy
week 1 surgery
week26
week13
week 7week 2week 1
week39
week52
week65
week78
week91
week104
week117
week130
week143
week156
week169
week182
week195
week208
week221
week234
week247
week260
week26
week39
week52
week65
week78
week91
week104
week117
week130
week143
week156
week169
week182
week195
week208
week221
week234
week247
week260
Incremental State Occupancy
progressive death
5% shi!
stable
"e di#erence in state occupancy between the two arms of the model are shown here.
A bar extending to the le! shows that there were more people in that state during that week in the placebo arm than in the temozolomide arm. Extending to the right indicates more people in the temozolo-mide arm.
"e length of the bars, indicat-ing the incremental di#erence between the state occupancy of the two arms, are proprtional to graphic 1: State Occupancy. A 10% shi! is indicated by a thin vertical white line.
4
10% shi!
15% shi!
20% shi!
week 13+ stable/progressive/death
weeks 2-6 post-op recoveryweeks 7-12 radiotherapy
week 1 surgery
week26
week39
week52
week65
week78
week91
week104
week117
week130
week143
week156
week169
week182
week195
week208
week221
week234
week247
week260
week26
week13
week 7week 2week 1
week39
week52
week65
week78
week91
week104
week117
week130
week143
week156
week169
week182
week195
week208
week221
week234
week247
week260
!is graphic shows the di"erences between the two arms of the model in terms of the quality adjusted life years (QALYs) that would be experienced by a simulated cohort of 1000 people.
A bar extending to the le# shows that, during that week, more QALYs were experienced by the people in the placebo arm than the temololomide arm. A bar extending to the right represents more QALYs experienced in the temozolo-mide arm.
!in vertical white lines show the number of QALYs that would be experienced in a cohort of 1000 simulated patients. A bar that reaches one line represents one QALY.
!e death state is not shown, as no QALYs are experienced in that state, as it was assigned a utility of 0.
!e “total” column on the far right shows a sum of the values from the other two states.
Incremental QALYs
totalstable progressive
5
1
2
3
incremental QALYs
week 13+ stable/progressive/death
weeks 2-6 post-op recoveryweeks 7-12 radiotherapy
week 1 surgery
week26
week39
week52
week65
week78
week91
week104
week117
week130
week143
week156
week169
week182
week195
week208
week221
week234
week247
week260
week26
week13
week 7week 2week 1
week39
week52
week65
week78
week91
week104
week117
week130
week143
week156
week169
week182
week195
week208
week221
week234
week247
week260
!is graphic shows the di"erences in costs between the two arms of the model, again with a cohort of 1000 simulated patients.
As before, a bar extending to the le# shows higher costs in the placebo arm, and a bar extending to the right shows higher costs in the temozolomide arm.
!e thin vertical white lines show cost thresholds in increments of £100,000
!e “total” column on the far right shows a sum of the values from all three states of the model.
Incremental Costs
totalstable progressive death
6
£100,000£200,000£300,000£400,000£500,000£600,000
incremental costs
Task-based cognitive interviewing
Probing protocol (Interviewer-led)
6 expert users (HTA modellers)
Stand-alone evaluation (no comparator)
Tasks used to assess understanding
Qualitative results (participants asked for opinions - framework analysis)
SOC test
Task 1
Q: How many people have progressive disease in week 52 of the temozolomide arm of the model?
A: 32.7%
Task 1
Task 2Q: Where do the costs tend to come from in each arm of the model?
Task 2
Task 6Q: Where does the greatest difference between the costs of the two arms lie?
Task 6
SOC test - conclusions
Participants largely understood meaning of displays
Main function is to give overview, adding a temporal display to existing methods
Considered useful by participants
Could be used to display SA?
Applicability to other models - with many more states?
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
week 1 surgeryweek
26
week39
week52
week65
week78
week91
week104
week117
week130
week143
week156
week169
week182
week195
week208
week221
week234
week247
week260
£3000 per person
£0 per person
£1500 per person
radiotherapy
chemotherapy drugs
hospital outpatient
hospital inpatient
placebo arm
£5.9m
£1.6m
£6.7m
£3.1m
weeks 7-12 radiotherapy
weeks 2+ progressive disease
weeks 2+ death
week 13+ stable/progressive/death
weeks 2-6 post-op recoveryweeks 7-12 radiotherapy
week 1 surgery
week26
week39
week52
week65
week78
week91
week104
week117
week130
week143
week156
week169
week182
week195
week208
week221
week234
week247
week260
week26
week13
week 7week 2week 1
week39
week52
week65
week78
week91
week104
week117
week130
week143
week156
week169
week182
week195
week208
week221
week234
week247
week260
!is graphic shows how adopting temozolomide treatment would a"ect quality of life and costs incurred over time.
!e grey bars show the change in costs and QALYs each week, and the solid black lines show the cumulative e"ects of adopting the treatment.
It should be noted that the weekly values are presented on a di"erent scale to the cumulative values. !is is necessary for the two to be compared overlaid in this manner.
Total Incremental Costs and QALYs 7incremental
total
total QALY gain:223.1ICER = £36,171 per QALY
total cost:£8.1m
QALYsincremental
totalcosts
incremental costs / QALYs
cumulativeincremental
costs / QALYs
Overall Conclusions
NICE interviews
TAR review
Design & critique
SOC test
COGS test
Methodsstudy
How should information graphics be designed, produced and used in health technology
assessment?
Research Question
Design
Research Area ECEHHRESEARCH OUTPUTS
Design
Production
1. Using standard visualisation tools in spreadsheet software (current situation – suitable for HTA professionals)
2. Developing new specialist software for use by HTA professionals (such as currently used for Forest plots)
3. Designing graphics on an individual basis (ie. in collaboration with trained information design professionals)
UseLikely that a combination of all three production methods will continue
Depends on:
- complexity of information to be presented
- available resources
- available skills
- which (or whether) specialist software tools are developed
Production
1. Using standard visualisation tools in spreadsheet software (current situation – suitable for HTA professionals)
Suitable for simpler reports:
- small number of trials in review
- few subgroups, sequencial treatments or other complicating factors
- simple treatment pathway for model
Production
2. Developing new specialist software for use by HTA professionals (such as currently used for Forest plots)
COGS software would be suitable for giving overview of more complex systematic reviews
SOC suitable for models in which time is a key consideration
Likely to be other graphics - these would further testing and evaluation
Production
3. Designing graphics on an individual basis (ie. in collaboration with trained information design professionals)
Suitable for the most complex reviews and models, where:
- different media become useable /dominant
- particular information needs highlighting (area of world, timing of trials, etc)
0 5 10 15 20
1ST
2 ST
AVG
N AB BKB
auth date ages design/size qualityfollow-up0yr 5 10 15
1ST
2ST
AVG
NAB BK
B
0 5 10 15 20 0yr 5 10 15
Pr Se As At Po Ot
Pr Se As At Po Ot
Pr Se As At Po Ot
Pr Se As At Po Ot
Pr Se As At Po Ot
Pr Se As At Po Ot
Pr Se As At Po Ot
Pr Se As At Po Ot
Har
rison
et
al.
2005
Niko
lopo
ulos
et
al.
2004
Man
rique
et
al.
2004
Stall
er
et al
.
2002
MED
-EL
2001
Niko
lopo
ulos
et
al.
1999
Illg e
t al.
1999
Kessl
er
et al
.
1997
N = 82
N = 82
N = 182
N = 78
N = 82
N = 126
N = 167
N = 49
20052004200320022001200019991998199719961995199419931992
Harrison et al.Nikolopolous et al.
Manrique et al.Staller et al.
MED-ELNikolopolous et al.
Illg et al.Kessler et al.
Future research
Developed graphics
- Use and monitoring
Evaluation of new graphics
- Other graphics designed for PhD
- Different designers’ work
- Different media?
Different audiences
- Public
- Medical professionals
Current work
E u r o p e a n C e n t r e f o r E n v i r o n m e n t a n d H u m a n H e a l t h
ENERGY
UK CARBON EMISSIONS
2009IN 2009, THE UK’S DEPARTMENT
FOR ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
CALCULATED THAT WE EMMITTED
564 TONNES OF CO2 - CARBON
DIOXIDE. HERE’S HOW THAT
BREAKS DOWN INTO DIFFERENT
SECTORS.
TRANSPORT
BUSINESS
RESIDENTIAL
AGRICULTURE
WASTE
INDUSTRIAL
PUBLIC SECTOR
195t
123t
86t79t
50t
18t
10t
8t
STRATOSPHERE10—50 km
UPPER TROPOSPHERE1—10 km
LOWER TROPOSPHERE0—1 km
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN ATMOSPHERIC SERVICES
COLUMN BASE:1 km2
WIND TURBINES80—130 m
POWER STATIONS80—350 m
AIRCRAFTCRUISING6—12 km
WEATHERBALLOONS0—40 km
SOUNDINGROCKETS50—1500 km
SATELLITESLOW EARTH ORBIT160—2000 km
SERVICES AT ALL THREE ALTITUDES
PLASMA AND METEORS
DISPERSION OF AIR POLLUTION
PROPERTIES
UPPER AND LOWER TROPOSPHERE