WRAP Emission Inventory Status

For the Attribution of Haze Project WorkgroupPresented by Jeffrey Stocum

Oregon DEQ Emissions Inventory Specialist

as a representative of the

WRAP Emissions Forum

March 29th 2004

Available EIs

• WRAP Interim 2002 Point and Area Source Emissions Estimates prepared by E.H. Pechan

• Mobile Sources Emission Inventory prepared by Environ

• Dust Emission Inventory prepared by Environ

Interim 2002 EI

• Often referred to as the “like 2002” EI

• This EI is a Point and Area Source inventory for criteria pollutants

• The official 2002 EIs submitted to EPA and then to WRAP by the states will not be available until fall 2004.

• Too late for this AOH project

Interim 2002 EI con’t

• These official 2002 EIs will be input into the Emissions Data Management System (EDMS) between June 2004 and Sept 2004 when the EDMS is scheduled to become operational

• Currently the EDMS project is in the comment period concerning the Hardware and Software Development Plan

Point Sources

• Began with Ver. 3 of the 1996 WRAP point source database

• Electricity Generating Units (EGUs) emissions are based on 2002 Emissions Tracking System/Continuous Emissions Monitoring (ETS/CEM) and 2002 EIA-767 estimates for large plants that submit to that system

• Copper smelters in Arizona and New Mexico provided 2002 SO2 emissions

Point Sources Con’t

• Non-smelter, non utility sources (i.e. everything else) were projected to 2002 using growth factors and Integrated Assessment System (IAS) model algorithms

But…• The 100 largest SO2 facilities estimates were

replaced using 2000 facility level estimates submitted by the states gleaned from the Pechan milestone report

Area Sources

• Doesn’t include mobile and fire sources [ag. burning, wildfire, or prescribed burning] which were covered by other projects

• Have been projected from the 1999 NEI Version 3

• E.H. Pechan used the Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS) 4.0 to provide growth factors to produce a 2002 inventory

Environ Mobile EI

• Emissions were estimated for the 1996 base year and for four future years- 2003, 2008, 2013, 2018

• Thus the 2003 year will be combined with the Interim 2002 Point and Area EI

• The Mobile Sources EI covered– On Road Mobile– Off Road Mobile– Road Dust Emissions

Mobile EI con’t

• Emissions were estimated for the average weekday in each of the 4 seasons

• Pollutants: PM10, PM2.5, NOX, SOX, VOC, CO, NH3, SO4, OC and EC

• CARB supplied California’s county level Mobile EI using EMFAC2000 and OFFROAD

On Road Mobile Sources

• Vehicle classes broken into light duty (passenger cars, motorcycles, and trucks <8500 lbs) and heavy duty vehicles

• Separated gasoline and diesel

• Emissions estimated by type of roadway– Rural/Urban– Interstate, Principal Arterial, Minor arterial,

Major collector, Minor Collector, & Local

On Road Mobile Sources con’t

• Utilized EPA MOBILE6– Many default inputs were updated by various

states• RVP, vehicle registrations, temperatures, I/M prog.

• EPA PART5 used for particulates – There were many modifications made that are

detailed in the report

On Road Mobile Sources con’t

• March 2001 M6 draft version used for the 1996 year EI

• Activity is Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)– From National Emissions Trends (NET) ver. 3– At the county and SCC level (vehicle type and

roadway type)

• Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, & Washington provided updated VMT

On Road Mobile Sources con’t

Table 5-1. 1996 Western states total on-road emissions by state (TPD). State VOC NOx CO PM10 + PM2.5 + SO2 NH3

Arizona* 411 384 4,079 14.3 12.6 8.1 8.9

California* 1,792 2,160 17,435 60.6 43.8 12.0 58.4

Colorado* 298 374 3,809 16.8 15.1 9.6 8.0

Idaho* 111 130 1,368 5.1 4.6 3.4 2.6

Montana 85 101 1,155 3.9 3.5 2.4 1.9

Nevada* 108 118 1,144 5.1 4.5 2.0 3.1

New Mexico* 194 208 2,328 8.3 7.4 5.7 4.4

North Dakota 65 72 891 2.8 2.5 1.7 1.4

Oregon* 316 313 3,451 10.5 9.2 9.2 5.7

South Dakota 71 84 986 3.3 2.9 2.0 1.6

Utah* 172 218 2,298 9.6 8.7 4.4 4.2

Washington 591 556 6,775 18.0 15.9 14.7 9.5

Wyoming* 66 78 910 3.0 2.7 1.9 1.5

* 9 GCVTC States 3,467 3,984 36,823 133 109 56 97

13 WRAP States 4,278 4,797 46,629 161 133 77 111 + PM emissions include exhaust, brake wear, and tire wear emissions.

On Road Mobile Future Years

• Sept 2001 M6 draft version used for all future years (03, 08, 13)

• VMT Projection– Accomplished through the use of VMT growth

factors developed from EPA’s Heavy Duty Vehicle rulemaking

– Utilized all updated MOBILE6 information that was received from the states

On Road Mobile Future Years con’t

Table 6-1. Annual VMT for 1996 and projection years with growth factors from 1996.

Annual VMT (million miles) VMT Growth Factor from

1996 to: State 1996 2003 2008 2013 2018 2003 2008 2013 2018

Arizona 41,641 49,511 57,837 63,947 70,928 1.189 1.389 1.536 1.703 Colorado 38,653 44,668 51,091 55,949 61,468 1.156 1.322 1.447 1.590 Idaho 12,924 15,001 17,227 18,817 20,615 1.161 1.333 1.456 1.595 Montana 9,419 10,818 12,333 13,396 14,595 1.149 1.309 1.422 1.549 Nevada 13,666 16,915 20,281 22,751 25,608 1.238 1.484 1.665 1.874 New Mexico 21,450 25,186 29,162 32,091 35,425 1.174 1.360 1.496 1.651 North Dakota 6,723 7,402 8,214 8,799 9,453 1.101 1.222 1.309 1.406 Oregon 30,235 34,930 40,039 43,815 48,094 1.155 1.324 1.449 1.591 South Dakota 7,796 8,899 10,111 11,003 12,009 1.141 1.297 1.411 1.540 Utah 19,447 23,663 27,295 30,879 34,576 1.217 1.404 1.588 1.778 Washington 49,771 56,529 62,783 67,502 71,833 1.136 1.261 1.356 1.443 Wyoming 7,339 8,224 9,233 9,963 10,783 1.121 1.258 1.358 1.469

Off Road Mobile Sources

• Covers the off road sources such as– Railroads– Aircraft– Agricultural equipment– Lawn and garden equipment– Recreational marine vessels and personal watercraft– Construction equipment– Airport ground service equipment– Commercial marine vessels

Off Road Mobile Sources con’t

• Utilized NONROAD 2000 Model for the 1996 base year and the NONROAD 2002 model for the 03, 08, 13 and 18

• Commercial marine, locomotives, aircraft are not included in the NONROAD model and are estimated using traditional NEI methods

Off Road Mobile Sources con’t

• Commercial Marine– Within 25 miles of the coastline– Coos Bay -OR, Columbia River Ports, Puget

Sound ports, Snake River barging

– Emissions = ∑ LF * EF * Ship Power * Time

– CARB provided California Emissions

Off Road Mobile Sources con’t

• Locomotives– 1996 NET Fuel use * EFs

• Aircraft– Utilized FAA Emissions and Dispersion

Modeling System (EDMS)– @ 9 large hubs– Applied to smaller airport aircraft traffic

throughout 12 WRAP states– CARB supplied CA aircraft emissions

Off Road Mobile Future Years

• The growth factors used in the EPA NONROAD2002 model were deemed too large for projections

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

Gro

wth

Fa

cto

r

GSE

Construction

Farm

Industrial

Lawn & Garden

Light Commercial

Logging

Railway

Recreational

Oil Field

Off Road Mobile Future Years con’t

• ENVIRON developed state level growth factors so that state to state growth factors could be taken into account for estimating future year emissions

. Recommended growth indicators. Source Category Growth Indicator

Agricultural Agricultural GSP

Aircraft/GSE LTO, Air Transportation GSP, Military GSP

Commercial & Industrial Total GSP Commercial Marine Cargo Tonnage Construction Construction GSP Lawn & Garden Human Population Locomotives & Railroad Railroad Fuel Consumption Logging Softwood Production Oil Field Domestic Crude Oil Production Pleasure Craft Human Population Recreational Human Population Underground Mining Mining GSP

Road Dust• Paved and Unpaved portions

• Original 1996 EI from National Emissions Trends (NET 96)

• When the initial 2018 work was completed for modeling it was determined that there were too many inconsistencies resulting in sharp changes in emissions at county (artificial) boundaries

Road Dust con’t

2 0 1 8 W e ste rn S ta te s A n n u a l A v e ra g e U n p a v e d R o a d D u s t P M 1 0 E m iss io n s

D a te G e n e ra te d : 5 /2 3 /2 0 0 2

E m iss ion s (T P D )

0 .0 to 5 .0

5 .0 to 1 0 .0

10 .0 to 50 .0

50 .0 to 10 0 .0

10 0 .0 to 2 0 0 .0

D e n v e r

L o s A n g e le s

S a n F ra n c isc o

B o ise

L a s V eg a s

A lb u q u e rq u e

S a lt L ak e C ity

P o rtla n d

S io u x F a lls

F a rg o

S e a ttle

C h e y e n n e

P h o en ix

B ill in g s

S p o k a n e

B ism a rc k

R a p id C ity

R en o

T u cs o n

Road Dust con’t

• Old 96 inventory was adjusted-• Paved road reentrained road dust from

PART5 • Unpaved based on EPA’s AP-42 road dust

emission equation with adjustments– Revisions to State Average Silt Content – Revisions to Average Daily Traffic Volume

(ADTV) Assumptions– Application of Transport Fractions (Pace 2002)

Road Dust con’t

2 0 1 8 W e ste rn S ta te s A n n u a l A v e ra g e U n p a v e d R o a d D u st P M 1 0 E m iss io n s

D a te G e n e ra te d : 5 /2 3 /2 0 0 2

E m iss io ns (T P D )

0 .0 to 0 .5

0 .5 to 1 .0

1 .0 to 5 .0

5 .0 to 1 0 .0

1 0 .0 to 20 .0

D e n v e r

L o s A n g e le s

S an F ra n c is c o

B o ise

L a s V e g a s

A lb u q u e rq u e

S a lt L a k e C ity

P o rt la n d

S io u x F a lls

F a rg o

S e a ttle

C h e y e n n e

P h o e n ix

B ill in g s

S p o k a n e

B ism a rck

R a p id C ity

R e n o

T u c s o n

Road Dust con’t

Change in Western states paved and unpaved road dust emissions from 1996 to 2018 (%).

Paved Road Dust Unpaved Road

Dust Total Road Dust State PM10 PM2.5 PM10 PM2.5 PM10 PM2.5 Arizona * 72% 72% -30% -30% -1% 10% California * 68% 68% -35% -35% -5% 5% Colorado * 74% 74% 21% 21% 32% 37% Idaho * 116% 116% -36% -36% -20% -10% Montana 65% 65% 13% 13% 21% 26% Nevada * 99% 99% -24% -24% 2% 13% New Mexico * 89% 89% 17% 17% 29% 35% North Dakota 51% 51% 0% 0% 3% 5% Oregon * 82% 82% -36% -36% -1% 13% South Dakota 62% 62% 9% 9% 11% 13% Utah * 105% 105% 28% 28% 42% 49% Washington 139% 139% -33% -33% -1% 14% Wyoming * 66% 66% 8% 8% 28% 35% 13 states total 81% 81% -12% -13% 6% 14% * 9 GCVTC States 77% 77% -16% -17% 6% 15%

Road Dust con’t

• Paved road dust emissions increase by about three percent/year from 1996 to 2018

• Unpaved road dust emissions are projected to decrease between 1996 and 2018, by about 0.75% per year

• Overall road dust PM10 emissions increase by about 6% from 1996 to 2018.

Summary

Attribution of Haze Emission Inventories

We have…

• Interim 2002 Point and Area source EI grown from 1996 (Point) and 1999 (Area)

• 2003 On Road Mobile EI

• 2003 Off Road Mobile EI

• Any year Road Dust EI based on extrapolation between 1996 and 2018