WP6. UPSCALE: Integrative models building and … assembly 2012.pdf · EGU2012-5453. ISSN:...

WP6. UPSCALE: Integrative models building and upscaling

Kick-off meeting, 6-7 April 2010, Barcelona, Spain1st SCARCE Annual Meeting. 1 December2010, Girona, SpainSCARCE CONSORTIUM MEETING. November 28, 2012, Valencia WP6: UPSCALE

Scales integration within SCARCE

Microscale Mesoscale Water body CatchmentScale

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WP1 DATA

WP2 HYDROL

WP3 MORPH

WP4 QUALITY

WP5 PROCESS

WP6 UPSCALE

WP7 ECONOMY

WP8 SERVICES

WP9 FRAME


GIMHA-IIAMA-UPV: F. Francés

GIRH-IIAMA-UPV: J. Andreu, J. Paredes, M. Pulido

UPM: C Conde, A. Hidalgo

UPC: L. Martinez- Landa, J. Molinero

ICRA-UDG: V. Acuña, R. Marcé, H. Fischer

URV: M. Marti, M. Nadal, M. Schuhmacher

UdL-CTFC: R. López

Involved Groups (originally):


Main tasks

WP 6.1. TETIS-SC. Process oriented models development (months 1-42)

WP 6.2. SCENARIOS AND INPUTS. Global change scenarios and generation of inputs (months 24-42)

WP 6.3. INVEST-SC. Tailoring InVEST to the Mediterranean area (months 12-50)

WP 6.4. AQUATOOL DSS. DSS development with AQUATOOL shell (months 12-50)


Key contributions (deliverables)

D6.1. TETIS-SC new model. Month 38. Responsible: UPVD6.2. TETIS-SC generated series in future scenarios. Month 48.

Responsible: UPVD6.3. Aquatool DSS implementation for the cases of study. Month 50. Responsible: UPV

Focused in quality and environmental simulations

D6.4. InVEST-SC submodules. Month 50. Responsible: ICRA-UDGNew process and related ecosystem services conceptualizationsParameter calibration linked with TETIS-SC outputsOptimization algorithm


Brief summary of the work done in 2012


Task 6.1 (Process oriented models development):1. First phase of the modeling process of the emerging pollutant diclofenac

in the Llobregat river basin with the GREAT-ER model (in collaboration with ICRA)

2. Ripflow v3 conceptualization3. Improvements in TETIS model v.8.2

a) New user-friendly interfaceb) Two dynamic vegetation models have been tested to choose the most sutable

conceptualization to be coupled to the TETIS model v.8.2c) Dunne mechanism introduced and tested d) Karst-type behaviour introduced and tested e) Inorganic nitrogen submodel coupled to the TETIS model v.8.2 (to be tested)f) Improved automatic calibration capability of the sediment submodel

4. Organization of the course: ‘Modeling water, floods and sediments with Tetis v8.2’

5. Uncertainty/sensitivity analysis in La Baells input discharges6. Deliverable 6.1: in preparation

UPV (GIMHA-IIAMA)


Task 6.2 (scenarios and generation of inputs):1. First phase of TETIS model application to the case studies (hydrology)

1. Ésera and Siurana (Ebro river basin)2. Presa La Baells, Súria and Abrera (Llobregat river basin)3. Alarcón, Pajaroncillo and Sueca (Júcar river basin)

2. TETIS sediment implementation in Esera (in collaboration with UdL)

UPV (GIMHA-IIAMA)


UPV (GIMHA-IIAMA)Group contributions during 2012:Published papers:

1.García-Arias A., Francés F., Ferreira T., Egger G., Martínez-Capel F., Garófano-Gómez V., Andrés-Doménech I., Politti E., Rivaes R., Rodríguez-González P.M. 2012. Implementing a dynamic riparian vegetation model in three European river systems. Ecohydrology. doi: 10.1002/eco.1331

2.C. Medici, A.J. Wade, F. Francés (2012), Does increased hydrochemical model complexity decrease robustness? Journal of Hydrology, Volumes 440-441, 29 May 2012, Pages 1-13, ISSN 0022-1694, 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.02.047.

Papers submitted:

1.J. López & F. Francés, Assessing teleconnections between climate indices and floods in continental Spanish rivers. Submitted to the Journal of Hydrology.

2.G. Bussi, F. Francés, J.J. Montoya, P. Julien. 2012. Implementation of a distributed erosion and sediment yield model in the Goodwin Creek experimental basin (USA): implications of initial sediment deposits on model calibration. Environmental Modelling and Software. Submitted to the Environmental Modelling and Software journal.


UPV (GIMHA-IIAMA)Group contributions during 2012:

Congress communications:

ORAL PRESENTATION

1.Múnera J.C., Francés F.,Todini E. Predictive uncertainty estimation at ungauged basins in a Bayesian framework.. PUB Symposium 2012. Completion of the IAHS decade on Prediction in Ungauged Basins and the way ahead. Delft, October 23-25, 2012.

2.Ramos L., Francés F. 2012. Propagación del Error de la Lluvia Estimada por Satélite en la Modelación Hidrológica en una Cuenca Extratropical Mediterránea XXV Congreso Latinoamericano de Hidráulica 2012. San José, Costa Rica. 9-12 September, 2012. Conference proceedings ISBN 978-9968-933-06-3

3.Medici C., Wade A.J., Francés F. 2012. Does increased hydrochemical model complexity decrease robustness? Catchment Change Network (CCN) Conference: Stakeholders, next generation models, and risk in managing catchment. Celebratory Workshop GLUE: 20 years on. Lancaster University, UK. 25th June-27th June 2012

POSTER:

1.Rodríguez Lloveras X., Bussi G., Sánchez Moya Y., Sopeña A., Francés F., Benito G. 2012. Approach to the sediment production rates through the check dams retention capacity in ephemeral Mediterranean rivers. XII Reunión Nacional de Geomorfología. Santander, Spain. 17-20 September, 2012. Conference proceedings ISBN 978-84-86116-54-5

2.Bussi G., Francés F., Rodríguez X., Benito G., Sánchez Moya Y., Sopeña A. Reconstruction of the sediment flow regime in a semi-arid Mediterranean catchment using check dam sediment information. European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012. Vienna, Austria. 22-27 April, 2012. Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 14, EGU2012-5453. ISSN: 1029-7006 (Awarded as outstanding poster)


UPV (GIMHA-IIAMA)Group contributions during 2012:Master thesis and Graduate thesis (PFC):

1.Ramírez Solano, Lina M.Análisis de la implementación de un modelo hidrológico distribuido con información estándar en España.M. Sc. Thesis supervised by: Prof. Félix Francés GarcíaMaster Program on Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de València, academic year 2011-2012.


UPV (GIMHA-IIAMA)Ésera river basin: -Hydrology:

- input data: Spain02 20x20 Km precipitation dataset;- discharge data: Campo, Graus, Capella, Barasona

stations.-Sediment model calibration and validation based on reservoir sedimentation;-Verification: gauged suspended sediment (López-Tarazón Phd Thesis, Isábena river)

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Sediment calibration and validation: depositional history of Barasona reservoir

Verification and analysis: gauged susp. sediments VS simulated total sediments


[ ] εθ yE += X~,|YY~

UNCERTAIN Model parameters

Observed Forcing Data

Gaussian Error Model

Catchment Response

Observed Catchment Response

Hydro Model TETIS

Markov Chain Monte CarloParameter Posteriors

La Baells Basin (Llobregat River)

Parameter Global Sensitivity


Task 6.4 (DSS development with AQUATOOL shell)

1. Aquatool DSS Júcar: The model has been calibrated and validated, then it is ready for the analysis of alternatives in WP8.

2. Aquatool DSS Llobregat: Conducted works:1. Development of detailed water quality models for the following rivers:

Anoia, Cardener, Llobregat headwaters, Upper Llobregat, Mid and lower Llobregat.

2. Calibration of the abovementioned models.3. Salts balances in the zones of influence of the salt mines in the

Llobregat and Cardener rivers.4. Initial simulations focused on the water quality in drought episodes.5. Validation of the models for the period 2007-2011.

3. Deliverable 6.3: Technical reports of the DSS models in preparation.

UPV (GIRH-IIAMA)


UPV (GIRH-IIAMA)

Group contributions during 2012:

Published papers:Haro D., Paredes J., Solera A., Andreu J. (2012), A Model for Solving the Optimal Water Allocation Problem in River Basins with Network Flow Programming When Introducing Non-Linearities. Water Resources Management (2012) 26:4059–4071 DOI 10.1007/s11269-012-0129-7.

Pulido-Velazquez, M., Alvarez-Mendiola, E., Andreu, J., in press. Design of efficient water pricing policies integrating basinwide resource opportunity costs. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. Posted ahead of print August 17, 2012. DOI10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000262

Papers submitted:Lerma N., Paredes J., Solera A., Andreu J. (2012), Development of operating rules for a complex multireservoir system by coupling genetic algorithms and network optimisation. Accepted for publication in the Hydrological Sciences Journal.

Paredes J., Solera A., Martínez-Capel F., Momblanch A., Andreu J. (2012), Integrating water management, habitat modelling and water quality at basin scale environmental flow assessment − Tormes River (Spain). Submitted to the Hydrological Sciences Journal. Special issue on “Hydrological science for environmental flows”.


WP 6.4/ WP 8. INVEST-SC. Tailoring InVEST to the Mediterranean area (months 12-50)

1. Development of Sensitivity Analysis modules for inVESTWater yield (done)Sediment retention/Erosion control (on going)Water purificationOthers

2. Development of calibration modules for inVEST3. Application to the Llobregat watershed

The application of sensitivity analysis to InVEST will allow identifying the most important variables of the model and will give trends regarding model’s application to Mediterranean river basins.

UPM/ICRA/URV


UPM/ICRA/URV


Pubblished papers•María Sánchez-Canales, Alfredo López Benito, Ana Passuello, Marta Terrado, Guy Ziv, Vicenç Acuña, Marta Schuhmacher, Fco. Javier ElorzaSensitivity analysis of ecosystem services valuation in a Mediterranean watershed. Science of the Total Environment. 440. 140-153. 2012

Congress communications•Passuello A, Sanchez-Canales M, Terrado M, López A, Elorza FJ, Acuña V, Schuhmacher M. Fate of persistent organic pollutants in soils amended with sewage sludge: sampling and modelling results Poster presentation in SETAC Europe 22nd Annual Meeting, Berlin (Germany) 2012.


UPC task• Integrating a groundwater model into a clearly oriented

surface model

So far, re-calibrate the Llobregat groundwater model (Sant Andreu + Vall Baixa + Delta) as follows:

- Take data from the water levels in the river - Run the groundwater model including a term to

account for the interaction between river and aquifer by means of a simple linear model:

Q=a(Hriv – haq)With a= leakage factor (constant in time, but spatially

variable)


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flow rates in specific sections of the river. These can be included as sink/source terms in the global model

Results conclude that it is not really necessary from a quantitativeto include this item in the water budget. Yet, maybe relevant in terTask: Incorporating information into the model?


Task 6.3: Integrated Modelling 1. Development of conceptual model for Integrated Decision Support

System by integrating Mike-Basin, InVest and expert knowledge.2. Development of network structure for Bayesian Network3. Scenarios development and model simulation4. Expert knowledge elicitation5. Knowledge integration 6. Model testing and Case Study analysis7. Comparison of Integrated DSS and Aquatool DSS (in collaboration of

UPV)

Deliverable 1. Integrated Decision Support System for Francoli

URV


Task 6.3/8.2: Trade-off Module for InVest1. Selection and testing of various trade-off analysis method in Matlab.2. Pilot case study for Llobregat3. Review of results from Llobregat4. Development of Trade-off module for InVest5. Module testing and Case Study analysis

Deliverable 1. Trade-off analysis module for InVest

URV


URVGroup contributions during 2012:Published papers:

1. Bangash R., Passuello A., Hammond M., Schuhmacher M. 2012. Water allocation assessment in low flow river under data scarce conditions: A study of hydrological simulation in Mediterranean basin. Science of the Total Environment.

Papers submitted:

1. Bangash R., Passuello A., Sanchez-Canales M., Terrado M., López A., Javier Elorza F., Ziv G., Acuña V., Schuhmacher M., Ecosystem services in Mediterranean river basin: Climate change impact on water provisioning and erosion control Submitted to the Journal of Science of the Total Environment.

2 Bangash R., Passuello A., Schuhmacher M. 2012 Analysis of Water Resource Allocation and Water Quality for Low Flow River in Mediterranean Watershed: Hydrological Simulation Model Overview Submitted to 2012 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software


URV Group contributions during 2012:


ORAL PRESENTATION

1. Bangash R., Passuello A., Schuhmacher M. Analysis of Water Resource Allocation and Water Quality forLow Flow River in Mediterranean Watershed: Hydrological Simulation Model Overview. International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, Leipzig Germany, July 2012

2. Bangash R., Passuello A., Schuhmacher M. Analysis of water resource allocation and ecosystem services forlow flow river basin in Mediterranean watershed. Workshop on Climate Change and its Impacts. Providence, RI, United States, June 07-23, 2012


URV Group contributions during 2012:


POSTER:

1. Bangash R., Passuello A., Schuhmacher M. 2012. Identification of alternate solutions to mitigate river health degradation and their effect on ecosystem services in low flow river watershed. 6th SETAC World Congress Securing a sustainable future: Integrating science, policy and people. Berlin, Germany. May 20-24, 2012

Master thesis:

1. Montserrat Marquès BuenoAssessing climate change on ecosystem services in Francolí River basinM. Sc. Thesis supervised by: Rubab Fatima BangashAcademic Tutor: Dr. Marta SchuhmacherMaster Program on Environmental Engineering and Sustainable Production, Universitat Rovira I Virgili, academic year 2011-2012


Task (in collaboration with WP3 UdL-CTFC members):

1.Evaluation of bed load transport models in a large regulated gravel bed river: application to the lower Ebro River.

a) Test the predictive power of 10 bed load formulae against bed load rates obtained for the lower Ebro (Mora d'Ebre Monitoring Section) whose armor layer is subject to repeated cycles of breakup and reestablishment.

b) Analysis the influence of bed material characteristics (i.e., effect of feed formulae with surface bed material or alternatively with subsurface bed material) and the armoring condition (i.e., unbroken armor layer, broken armor layer, and reestablished armor layer) in predictive power of formulae.

c) Comparison with results of others researchers in different gravel bed rivers. d) Ranking the bed load formulae according to their predictive power using

several statistical criteria.e) Identification of the formulae with higher predictive power: Yang (1984) and

Parker et al. (1982).f) Development of bed load rating curve regression for the lower Ebro. Contrast

with predictions of bed load transport models.

UdL-CTFC


UdL-CTFC


Papers under review:

López, R., Vericat, D., Batalla, R.J. (2012) Evaluation of bed load transport formulae in a large regulated gravel bed river. Under rewiew at Water Resources Reserch.


Plan for the next two years


Interactions with other WPs

WP1 DATA

WP2 HYDRO; WP3 MORPH; WP6 QUALITY; WP5 PROCESS

WP8 SERVICES

WP6.3 InVEST modules

Months 12-50

WP6.2 Scenarios and inputs

Months 24-42

WP6.1 TETIS-SCARCE

Months 1-42

WP6.4 Aquatool DSS

Months 12-50


Task 6.1 (Process oriented models development):1. Finalisation of the modeling process of the emerging pollutant diclofenac

in the Llobregat river basin with the GREAT-ER model (in collaboration with ICRA)

2. Coupling of the selected dynamic vegetation model to the TETIS model v.8.2

3. Automatic calibration algorithm development for the inorganic nitrate submodel

4. 1.- Model coupling at Llobregat river delta (in collaboration with UPC)

Deliverable 6.1: TETIS-SCARCE program. The new mesoscale conceptualizations will be available as free software (UPV) (month 38).

UPV (GIMHA-IIAMA)


UPV (GIMHA-IIAMA)Task 6.2 (scenarios and generation of inputs):1. Finalization of the TETIS model application to the study cases2. Discharge temporal series generated under different climate change

scenarios (interaction with WP1)3. TETIS-SED sub-model application to the Siurana and Ésera river (Ebro)

(in collaboration with UdL) 4. Inorganic nitrogen submodel application to the Llobregat river

5. Generalized uncertainty/sensitivity analysis

6. Deliverable 6.2: TETIS-SCARCE generated series. After implementation, the model TETIS-SCARCE will produce some of the input data series for the global change scenarios needed in other WPs (month 48)


Task 6.3 (DSS development with AQUATOOL shell)

1. Aquatool DSS Llobregat:1. Joint modelling of water management and quality.2. Simulations to study the impact of droughts over the water quality

and supply reliabilities.2. Aquatool DSS Esera and DSS Genil: Acquisition of water management

models (interaction with WP1), and initiation of the works on them.

UPV (GIRH-IIAMA)


WP 6.3/WP 8. INVEST-SC. Tailoring InVEST to the Mediterranean area (months 12-50)

1. Development of Sensitivity Analysis modules for inVESTWater yieldSediment retention/Erosion controlWater purificationOthers

2. Development of calibration modules for inVEST3. Development of an in-stream module for inVEST (with ICRA)4. Verification in the Llobregat watershed5. Aplication to the others Scarce watershed

UPM/ICRA/URV


Tasks

•Analyzing more ecosystem services (Included in the new version of InVEST) for Llobregat river basin (in collaboration with ICRA)

•Development of Trade-off analysis module

•Development of Integrated Decision Support System

•Comparison of Integrated DSS and Aquatool DSS (in collaboration with UPV)

URV


Tasks (in collaboration with WP3 UdL-CTFC members)

1. Analysis the influence of the size of the Helley-Smith bed load sampler nozzle in the evaluation of predictive power of bed load discharge models: application in the lower Ebro River.

2. Textural analysis of the bed load (continuous sampling) in a mid-mountain gravel bed river: application to the Ribera Salada River (the Segre River basin).

UdL-CTFC

WP6. UPSCALE: Integrative models building and … assembly 2012.pdf · EGU2012-5453. ISSN:...

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