WP5.3 Model Simulations Secano Interior

7/31/2019 WP5.3 Model Simulations Secano Interior

1/8

Ribcnd Jn}i{jd{' Bejgi

R}ymz rj}i mi}cjgr

]ei ,Ribcnd jn}i{jd{, %jn}i{jd{ m{zgcnm* jr c ryk ey`jm @imj}i{{cnicn bgj`c}i {iljdn do Bejgiiu}inmjnl o{d` }ei _ }d }ei _JJJ Cm`jnjr}{c}jvi [iljdnr.

Bdd{mjnc}ir6Gc}j}ymi6 299


2/8


Kcrigjni Rbinc{jd

XIRI[C kcrigjni {yn

]|d kcrigjni rbinc{jdr |i{i {yn6 dni jr }ei kcrjb XIRI[C

{yn |ejgi }ei d}ei{ }cair jn}d cbbdyn} }ei rdjg

bd`xcb}jdn {ixd{}im kz }ei r}ymz rj}i. O{d` }ei i{drjdn

`cxr j} jr bgic{ }ec} ynmi{ bd`xcb}im bdnmj}jdnr %do

|ejbe }ei rxc}jcg iu}in} jr ynand|n*' rdjg i{drjdn

jnb{icrir {igc}jvi }d }ei kcrigjni. Ejleir} i{drjdn {c}ir

c{i {ixd{}im od{ }ei r}iixi{ |ir}i{n cnm rdy}ei{n c{icr

do }ei r}ymz c{ic. ]ei kjd`crr x{dmyb}jdn jn }ei kcrigjni

{yn odggd|r }ei gcnm yri mjr}{jky}jdn' |j}e gd|ir} vcgyir

od{ b{dxgcnm cnm ejleir} od{ od{ir}. Od{ir} dn `dyn}cjn

rgdxir ecr bgic{gz gd|i{ kjd`crr x{dmyb}jdn. Ynmi{ rdjg

bd`xcb}jdn' rgdxi kibd`ir c md`jncn} ocb}d{.

Rdjg i{drjdn

C. XIRI[C kcrjb {yn K. Ynmi{ rdjg bd`xcb}jdnKjd`crr x{dmyb}jdn

C. XIRI[C kcrjb {yn K. Ynmi{ rdjg bd`xcb}jdn

Gcnmod{`r


3/8


]ibendgdlz Rbinc{jd6

Nd }jggcli |j}e ryk-rdjgjnl %BEG83*

]d}cg dxi{c}jdn bdr}r ynmi{ mjooi{in} x{cb}jbir6- }{cmj}jdncg }jggcli =52'=


4/8

Kjdxezrjbcg j`xcb}6 jnb{icri jn kjd`crr

Ibdnd`jb vjckjgj}z

Ni} x{doj} ynmi{ }{cmj}jdncg }jggcli rzr}i` Ni} x{doj} ynmi{ ìbecnjim }jggcli rzr}i`

Cg}edyle }ei }ibendgdlz gicmr }d jnb{icrim

kjd`crr x{dmyb}jdn' }ei dxi{c}jdncg bdr}r

c{i }dd ejle jn {igc}jdn }d }ei kinioj}r.

Iuxi{jìn}cg {iryg}r bdì }d }ei

rcì bdnbgyrjdn {ilc{mjnl }{cmj}jdncg

cnm bdnvin}jdncg ibecnjim }jggcli

rzr}i`r. Ed|ivi{' jn iuxi{jìn}r nd-}jgg

mjm red| c xdrj}jvi {i}y{n. ]ei ejleir} zjigm

cbbd{mjnl }d }ei XIRI[C `dmig jr 2:9? al$ec' cnm nd}

=988 cr |cr dk}cjnim jn iuxi{jìn}r. ]ei nilc}jvi

{i}y{n od{ }ei }|d bdnvin}jdncg rzr}i`r bcn cgrd ecvi }d

md |j}e gckdy{ dxxd{}ynj}z bdr}r kijnl vcgyim ejlei{

}ecn oc{ì{r |ed x{cb}jbi }eiri rzr}i`r md cxxc{in}gz

cbbix}. Cr bcxj}cg jnxy} jn }ei nd-}jgg rzr}i` jr ejlei{' j}

rii`r yngjaigz }ec} }ei }ibendgdlz |jgg rxdn}cnidyrgz ki

|jmigz cmdx}im.

Ni} x{doj} ynmi{ nd }jggcli |j}e ryk-rdjgjnl

Kjd`crr jnb{icri Xi{bin}cli kjd`crr jnb{icri


5/8


Xdgjbz Rbinc{jd6

Rykrjmjrjnl nd }jggcli |j}e ryk-rdjgjnl %BEG83*

Myi }d gd| x{dmyb}jvj}z jn `cnz xc{}r do }ei r}ymz

c{ic cnm }ei {igc}jvigz ejle bdr} do j`xgiìn}jnl nd

}jggcli |j}e ryk-rdjgjnl' |j}edy} iu}i{ncg ojncnbjcg

jnbin}jvi jn cgg xc{}r do }ei r}ymz c{ic |jmirx{icm

cmdx}jdn do }ei }ibendgdlz jr vi{z yngjaigz. Jn }ejr

rbinc{jd }ei iooib}r do c rykrjmz isycg }d 98) do }ei

dxi{c}jdncg bdr}r dn x{doj}ckjgj}z do }ei }ibendgdlz

cnm }ei xd}in}jcg od{ `j}jlc}jnl gcnm mil{cmc}jdn c{i

iuxgd{im.

98)

X{doj}ckjgj}z6

Bdr}-iooib}jvinirr jnmjbc}d{r6

Kz jn}{dmybjnl 98) rykrjmz }d|c{mr }ei }d}cg dxi{c}jdn bdr} do j`xgiìn}jnl nd }jggcli |j}e ryk-rdjgjnl'}ei }ibendgdlz kibdìr ibdnd`jbcggz c}}{cb}jvi jn 22) do }ei cxxgjbckgi c{ic.

]ejr |jgg {iryg} jn cn cvi{cli {imyb}jdn do i{drjdn do 8.== }dn$ec$zic{. Jn }d}cg' cn cnnycg {imyb}jdn do 9:8; }dnnir do i{dmim rdjg bcn ki iuxib}im. ]ei }d}cg c`dyn} do rykrjmz |dygm ki 2.2 kjggjdn BGX %2.3 `jggjdn* %iubgymjnl }{cnrcb}jdn bdr}r*. Einbi c bdr}-iooib}jvinirr do 995'888 BGX$}dn %9;9* do rdjg bdnri{vim.

\j}edy} rykrjmz \j}e rykrjmz


6/8

Ribcnd Jn}i{jd{' BejgiLgdkcg Rbinc{jd6

Oddm x{dmyb}jdn

]ei oddm x{dmyb}jdn rbinc{jd rigib}r }ei }ibendgdlz|j}e }ei ejleir} cl{jbyg}y{cg x{dmyb}jvj}z %kjd`crr*

od{ icbe bigg |ei{i c ejlei{ x{dmyb}jvj}z }ecn jn }ei

kcrigjni rbinc{jd jr cbejivim. ]ei j`xgiìn}c}jdn

bdr}r od{ }ei }d}cg r}ymz c{ic c{i bcgbygc}im cnm bdr}-

x{dmyb}jvj}z {igc}jdnr crrirrim. ]d ocbjgj}c}i

bd`xc{jrdn ki}|iin mjooi{in} r}ymz rj}ir' cgg bdr}r

c{i iux{irrim jn Iy{d.

!3=9 al$ec

!;8 al$jneckj}cn}&

Rbdxi od{ jnb{icrim x{dmyb}jdn

Zjigm jnb{icri Xi{bin}cli zjigm jnb{icri

Kjdxezrjbcg j`xcb}6 zjigm jnb{icri

Zjigm jnb{icri jn 388 ) do cxxgjbckgi c{ic Cvi{cli ckrdgy}i zjigm jnb{icri6 3=9 al$ec Cvi{cli zjigm jnb{icri6 ?3 )Ibdnd`jb jnmjbc}d{r

Cvi{cli bdr}r6

Iu}{c dxi{c}jdncg bdr}6 3;9$ec$z{ Ynj}c{z bdr}6 5?;$}dn

Cll{ilc}i jnmjbc}d{r&6

R}ymz rj}i6 9.; `jggjdn Cylìn}im cnnycg x{dmyb}jdn6 9::8 }dn

& Nd}i6 cll{ilc}i jnmjbc}d{r c{i bcgbygc}im od{ }ei in}j{i ed}rxd} c{ic crry`jnl rj`jgc{ cvi{cli zjigm jnb{icrir cr od{ }ei

rj`ygc}jdn dni. ]ei }d}cg ny`ki{ do jneckj}cn}r jr nd} {ixd{}im1 }ei xi{ bcxj}c r}c}jr}jb jr kcrim dn bc. 288'888 oc{ì{r.


7/8

Ribcnd Jn}i{jd{' BejgiLgdkcg Rbinc{jd6

@jnj`jjnl gcnm mil{cmc}jdn

]ei `jnj`jjnl gcnm mil{cmc}jdn rbinc{jd rigib}r }ei}ibendgdlz |j}e }ei ejleir} `j}jlc}jnl iooib} dn gcnm

mil{cmc}jdn d{ ndni jo }ei kcrigjni rj}yc}jdn

mi`dnr}{c}ir }ei gd|ir} {c}i do gcnm mil{cmc}jdn.

]ei j`xgi`in}c}jdn bdr}r od{ }ei }d}cg r}ymz c{ic c{i

bcgbygc}im cnm bdr}-x{dmyb}jvj}z {igc}jdnr crrirrim.

]d ocbjgj}c}i bd`xc{jrdn ki}|iin mjooi{in} r}ymz

rj}ir' cgg bdr}r c{i iux{irrim jn Iy{d.

-8.5= }dn rdjg$ec

3=5$}dn rdjg

Rbdxi od{ {imybim i{drjdn

[imyb}jdn do i{drjdn %nilc}jvi vcgyir* Xi{bin}cli do i{drjdn {imyb}jdn %nilc}jvi vcgyir*

Kjdxezrjbcg j`xcb}6 i{drjdn {imyb}jdn

[imyb}jdn do i{drjdn jn ::.:< ) do cxxgjbckgi c{ic Cvi{cli ckrdgy}i i{drjdn {imyb}jdn6 8.5=

}dnnir$ec$z{

Cvi{cli xi{bin} i{drjdn {imyb}jdn6 ;; )Ibdnd`jb jnmjbc}d{r

Cvi{cli bdr}r6 Iu}{c dxi{c}jdncg bdr}6 3;9$ec$z{ Ynj}c{z bdr}6 3=5$}dn rdjg

Cll{ilc}i jnmjbc}d{r&6 R}ymz rj}i6 9.; `jggjdn Cll{ilc}i cnnycg i{drjdn {imyb}jdn6 22'?88 }dn

& Nd}i6 cll{ilc}i jnmjbc}d{r c{i bcgbygc}im od{ }ei in}j{i ed}rxd} c{ic crry`jnl rj`jgc{ i{drjdn {imyb}jdn cr od{ }ei

rj`ygc}jdn dni.


8/8


Bdnbgymjnl {i`c{ar

Kcrigjni rj`ygc}jdnr red| c {c}ei{ rivi{i rdjg i{drjdn x{dkgi` jn }ei Ribcnd Jn}i{jd{' |j}eXIRI[C `dmig dy}xy} ryllir}jnl }ec} dni }ej{m do }ei c{ic ecr i{drjdn {c}ir dvi{ 38}dn$ec$z{.

Nd }jggcli |j}e rykrdjgjnl %BEG83* |cr rigib}im kz rbjin}jr}r cnm gdbcg r}caiedgmi{r cr }ei oj{r}-{cnaim do }e{ii }ibendgdljir }d bdyn}i{ rdjg gdrr kz |c}i{ i{drjdn. ]ei }ibendgdlz rbinc{jd

red|r }ec} i{drjdn {c}ir bcn ki {imybim kz }ei }ibendgdlz. Nd-}jgg gicmr }d bdnrjmi{ckgi

jnb{icri jn kjd`crr x{dmyb}jdn' ki}|iin ;9 cnm :8). Mirxj}i do }ejr' cxxgjbc}jdn do }ei

}ibendgdlz jr nd} x{doj}ckgi. Cg}edyle }ei bdnvin}jdncg rzr}i`r crrirrim cgrd red|im ni}

gdrrir' }ei nd-}jgg }ibendgdlz jr }ei `dr} bcxj}cg jn}inrjvi. Cbbix}cnbi do gd|i{ {i}y{n }d gckdy{

`cz iuxgcjn |ez }eiri rzr}i`r c{i nivi{}eigirr cxxgjim.

Ivcgyc}jnl }ei {iryg}r jn c |d{aredx' r}caiedgmi{r mjm bdnrjmi{ }ei }ibendgdlz }d ki ejlegzx{doj}ckgi' xi{ecxr cr ojigm iuxi{jìn}r mi`dnr}{c}im ejlei{ zjigm }ecn `dmiggim kz XIRI[C.

]eiz rc| cbbirr }d }ei `cbejni{z cnm gdrr do gdbcg i`xgdzìn} cr nilc}jvi iooib}r' cnm

jmin}jojim cmisyc}i cnm }jìgz rykrjmjir cnm xddgjnl do `cbejni{z cr `cjn jrryir }d inckgi

|jmirx{icm cmdx}jdn. ]ei }ibendgdlz `cjn}cjnim j}r x{ioi{{im {cna c`dnl `j}jlc}jdn

r}{c}iljir.

C xdgjbz rbinc{jd {imybjnl bdr}r kz 98) `cmi }ei }ibendgdlz x{doj}ckgi jn 22) do }eicxxgjbckgi c{ic. Rybe c rykrjmz |dygm {imybi rdjg i{drjdn kz dn cvi{cli 8.== }dn$ec$z{' c} c

bdr} do995'888 BGX$}dn %9;9*. ]ei bd`xi}j}jvinirr do nd-}jgg {igc}jvi }d bdnvin}jdncg rzr}i`r

|dygm l{ic}gz j`x{dvi' rd }ec} cnz ynmi{ir}j`c}im x{doj}ckjgj}jir bdygm xgcz dy} }d cmmj}jdncg

xd}in}jcg yx}cai.

]ei lgdkcg rbinc{jdr red| }ec} }ei }ibendgdlz bcn cbejivi zjigm jnb{icrir cnm i{drjdn {imyb}jdnrcb{drr vj{}ycggz j}r in}j{i cxxgjbckjgj}z c{ic. ]ei iu}{c dxi{c}jdncg bdr} do 3;9$ec$z{' j.i. }ei

mjooi{inbi ki}|iin }ei yri do }ei nd-}jgg }ibendgdlz cnm bdnvin}jdncg %ìbecnjrim* }jggcli' gicm

}d cn cvi{cli zjigm jnb{icri do 3=9 al$ec$z{ cnm i{drjdn {imyb}jdn do 8.5= }dn$ec$z{' c} c bdr} do

5?; cnm 3=5$}dn oddm x{dmyb} cnm rdjg {irxib}jvigz.

Nd-}jgg gicmr }d ejlei{ zjigmr kibcyri do ki}}i{ rdjg |c}i{ cvcjgckjgj}z. Cr rybe' }ei{i c{i gj}}gi {jrarjnvdgvim jn cxxgzjnl }ei }ibendgdlz' cnm j} `jle} ki c rinrjkgi r}{c}ilz |j}e {ilc{mr }d cmcx}jnl

}d bgj`c}i becnli.

WP5.3 Model Simulations Secano Interior

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