“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to walk from here?” asked Alice of the Cheshire...
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Transcript of “Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to walk from here?” asked Alice of the Cheshire...
Better Results for Citizens: Strategy, Planning & Implementation
Dr Roger WaiteProject Manager, Pathfinder Project; NZ Treasury
http://io.ssc.govt.nz/pathfinder
1 July 2003
“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to walk from here?” asked Alice of the Cheshire Cat.
“That depends a good deal on where you want to get to” said the Cat.
“I don't much care where” said Alice.
“Then it doesn't matter which way you walk” said the Cat.
“--so long as I get somewhere” Alice added as an explanation.
“Oh, you're sure to do that” said the Cat, “if you only walk long enough!”
Outcomes: A Way of Walking
Map of Presentation
• Making strategic choices: macro & micro• Continuous improvement models• Interventions: planning for performance• Demonstrating value• Building a better future: management & culture
“From not really knowing … to reasonable confidence” (J. Mayne) “It is better to roughly right, than perfectly ignorant” (H. Hatry)
Why Focus on Outcomes?Why Focus on Outcomes? One Reason … Three Threads
1. Outcomes – by definition – matter to New Zealanders
2. Value to citizens, residents, people
3. Taonga – what the public treasures
Goal: Strengthen outcome-focussed, evidence-based Goal: Strengthen outcome-focussed, evidence-based governance, at all levels of Governmentgovernance, at all levels of Government
Why Pathfinder ?
Build NZ Capability to Deliver Results - at Programme, Agency, Sector and ‘Joined Up’ Levels
PATHFINDER
Managing forOutcomes(SOI / MfO)
Value-for-Money(VfM)
DECISION MAKING SYSTEMS; TOOLBOX;CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGY,CAPABILITY,
PERFORMANCE
TRADE-OFFS,TRANSFERS
Review of the Centre(ROC)
Pathfinder’s Raison D’etre
After 10+ yrs, output funding has delivered
Quantum gains requires modified approach
Keep what works (output focus), but …
Complete public sector management modelLink outcomes (through outputs) to inputs
Meet requirements of legislation, parliament, etc
Ensure we deliver to citizens, taxpayers, people
Develop capability & management approach
1. Strategy, Policy & Planning Strategy links outcomes to actions & resources Build mgmt systems (not measurement systems) Five step continuous improvement model Robust intervention design & monitoring systems
Using performance data in case mgmt systems Faster course correction during implementation Improve information on likely impact vs. cost
2. Managing Interventions
Accentuate the positive - Eliminate the negative- - - - Mary Poppins School of Management - - - -
Using Evidence to Improve Outcomes
Who Makes Strategic Choices?
• The Minister or Ministers?• The Boss of Bosses? • General Managers? • Managers? • Planners & Policy Wonks?• Delivery Staff?• Business Analysts & Evaluators?
Good operators should - in their areas of responsibility We also influence strategic choices made around us
Organisational Models
Source: Department of Conservation, NZStratified Systems Theory - Jacques
Pathfinder’s Building Blocks• Strategic Planning• State Indicators• Intervention Logic • Impact Assessment • Optimising the Intervention Mix• Benchmarking• Operational Decision-making• Working Across Agencies
Use Building Blocks to Build Management SystemsUse Building Blocks to Build Management Systems
Living documents:Summary & guidance on
http://io.ssc.govt.nz/pathfinder
STRATEGIC PLANNING & CAPABILITYSTRATEGIC PLANNING & CAPABILITYCore Outcomes
of AgencyDefined
StateIndicators
ImpactMeasures
Risk-basedTargeting
Tools
StrategicPriorities &
Planning
Benchmarking& Best Practice
MaximisingBenefits from
Intervention Mix
BusinessProcess Design
ManagementApplications
Linked OutcomeMeasures
After a business model used by the Department of Corrections
Strategic Decision Making in an MfO Envionment
ContinuousImprovement
EnvironmentalScan; Identify
Outcomes
Measure StateIndicators
AssessOutputs &
Impact
ID Options;Deliver 'Best'Interventions
ID Major Areasfor Change(& Goals)
Where are we?(Did we get there?)
Where do wewant to go?
How do weget there?
How did we do?
AKA - “The Five Step Continuous
Improvement Model”
Where are we?Where do we go?
0
1
2
3
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5
15-
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24
25-
29
30-
34
35-
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40-
44
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Age of driver
Dri
ver
fata
litie
s p
er
10
0 m
illio
n k
m
1989/901997/98
? FOCUS AREAS ?
Strategic Decision Making in an MfO Envionment
ContinuousImprovement
EnvironmentalScan; Identify
Outcomes
Measure StateIndicators
AssessOutputs &
Impact
ID Options;Deliver 'Best'Interventions
ID Major Areasfor Change(& Goals)
Where are we?(Did we get there?)
Where do wewant to go?
How do weget there?
How did we do?
AKA - “The Five Step Continuous
Improvement Model”
How Do We Get There?(Linking Outcomes to Funding Decisions)
Logic models provide a structured tool for working through an agencies intervention choices:
Which outcomes matter most Value of intervention options Define agency output mix ID poorly aligned effort / $$$
Individual interventions: Clarify objectives / design Identify & manage risk Gauge success
Outputs
Activities
Inputs
End/Final Outcomes
Intermediate Outcomes
Immediate Results
O2
A2
I2
O3
A3
I3
O4
A4
I4
IO
IR
Etc
Etc
Etc
Planning for PerformancePlanning for Performance Policy … Design … Planning for Feedback … then Action
Plan(where do we want to go?)
Measures(how will we know when
we get there?)
Activities(to implement the plan)
Reports(did we reach our goal?)
The Policy Management Cycle: After Heather Daynard, Prospect Management Enterprises Inc, Canada
Strategic Decision Making in an MfO Envionment
ContinuousImprovement
EnvironmentalScan; Identify
Outcomes
Measure StateIndicators
AssessOutputs &
Impact
ID Options;Deliver 'Best'Interventions
ID Major Areasfor Change(& Goals)
Where are we?(Did we get there?)
Where do wewant to go?
How do weget there?
How did we do?
AKA - “The Five Step Continuous
Improvement Model”
Influence DiagramsMap problem chain (cause, effect & influences)
Logic ModelsIntervention design, ‘theory of impact’, risk
management & performance monitoring
Logical Policy, Design & Monitoring
Outputs
Coverage
Near-term Results
Intermediate Outcomes
End Outcomes
To improve the lives of our people
Generate significant change …
Affect knowledge & behaviours …
Reaching intended areas & people …
Of integrity & right quantity …
OUTPUT
IMMEDIATEIMPACT
INTERMEDIATEOUTCOME
ENDOUTCOME
thenif …
if …
if …
One Grand Hypothesis breaks into …
Three or more Mini-hypotheses (some of which can be tested)
then
then
From: Karen Baehler, Victoria University of Wellington
Managing PerformanceManaging PerformanceOutputs … Coverage … Outcomes … Decision cycles
Time Delays
OUTPUTS OUTCOMES
QUANTITY& QUALITY
COVERAGENEAR-TERM
RESULTSINTERMEDIATE
OUTCOMESAGENCY ENDOUTCOMES
HIGH
LOW
MeasurementCosts
MeasurementChallenges
LINKAGE TOOUR ACTIONS
VALUE TOTHE NATION
RE
LA
TIV
E M
AG
NIT
UD
E
Matching Measures to Uses
Long-Term Near-Term OutputsOutcomes Results
External UseAccountability to
Political Level
Program Advocacy
Budget Review
Public Communication
Internal UseStrategic Planning
Program Evaluation
Operational Planning
and Control
PerformanceAppraisal
Adapted by Heather Daynard & Roger Waite from: John R. Allen, Management Consultant
NZ
NZ
NZ
NZ
Output Measures, Proxies, Predictors
(include with caveats)
Few Outcome
Measures Available
or Required
Ideal
Performance
Measures
Descriptive Statistics
(planning information)
LOW HIGH
HIGH
LOW
Degree of Control/Accountability
Degree of Measurabilit
y of Outcomes
From: Performance-Based Management at Forest Renewal BC
Measurability & Control
Building a Better FutureBuilding a Better Future Focus effort … Demonstrate results … Learn & re-orientate
ContinuousImprovement
Measure StateIndicators
AssessOutputs &
Impact
ID Options;Deliver 'Best'Interventions
ID Major Areasfor Change(& Goals)
Where are we?(Did we get there?)
Where do we want to go?
How do we get there?How did we do?
• Manage cycles of change – not one-off gains
• Improve state indicators & targeting of effort
• Up-front policy / design – w. focus on monitoring
• Building evidence-base• Cultivation & weeding:
making hard decisions
‘‘New’ Intervention ParadigmsNew’ Intervention Paradigms
• Changing the world (not just recipients of services)• Careful specification of problem chain • Balancing ‘what works’ vs. innovation• Ex ante design: outputs & getting performance info• Ex post analysis & redesign of interventions• Reallocation of resources
Policy staff / intervention designers responsibilities:
[a] Specify coherent intervention approach; & also [b] Designing systems to monitor key results
Organisation & CultureAccentuating the Positive
Accept responsibility for achieving outcomes Renew intellectual capacity & agency creativity Integrated set of initiatives – backed by evidence (add
new initiatives to build on momentum / gains)
Analytical rigour / honesty, not mgmt. paraphernalia Reduce real complexity to ‘workable dimensions’ Active risk-taking, not passive risk avoidance
Build sector-wide knowledge, people, teams
From Tony Bliss, LTSA (NZ) & World Bank
Eliminating the negative
Senior ManagementAccentuating the Positive
Strong leadership - Ambitious vision & targetsUnderstanding output-outcome links & the limits of
performance; set direction to surpass those limits (limits set by institutional & production frontiers)
Fund portfolio of investments & near-term outputsBacking evidence, esp. vs. conventional wisdomManaging productive multi-agency partnerships,
coordinated at senior levels (often CEO to CEO)
From Tony Bliss, LTSA (NZ) & World Bank
Systems that Build on Positive Results – and Eliminate the Negative
Better Results for Citizens: Strategy, Planning & Implementation
Dr Roger WaiteProject Manager, Pathfinder Project; NZ Treasury
http://io.ssc.govt.nz/pathfinder
1 July 2003