World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation · 2020. 9. 14. · World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation...
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World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released September 11, 2020, unless otherwise indicated. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.
Transcript of World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation · 2020. 9. 14. · World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation...
World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation
Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released September 11, 2020, unless
otherwise indicated. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments.
Major Exporters01Import Demand02U.S. Situation by Class03Outlook04
Highlights of USDA’s 2020/21 Supply and Demand Estimates
2020/21 global wheat production to jump to a record 770 MMT• Production in Canada to increase 11% from last year to 36.0 MMT, the second-largest crop on record• Australian production to jump 87% from last year to 28.5 MMT as beneficial rains pull the country out of a
three-year drought• U.S. production to decrease 4% from last year to 50.0 MMT on lower yields and decreased planted area
Global consumption forecast at 751 MMT, the highest on record• Mexican domestic consumption to reach 7.60 MMT, 3% more than last year • Domestic consumption in Egypt to reach a record 20.8 MMT, up 5% from the 5-year average • U.S. domestic consumption to increase to 30.2 MMT, up 1% from 2019/20
World wheat trade to fall 1% from last year’s record to 189 MMT• Exports from the European Union (EU) to fall 34% on the year to 25.5 MMT, 13% below the 5-year average • Russian exports to increase 9% from last year to 37.5 MMT, 14% more than the 5-year average• U.S. 2020/21 exports to reach 26.5 MMT, 1% more than 2019/20 and 5% more than the 5-year average
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Highlights of USDA’s 2020/21 Supply and Demand Estimates
World beginning stocks jumped 6% from 2019/20 to 300 MMT, 14% more than the 5-year average
• Indian beginning stocks reached 24.0 MMT, the highest since the 2013/14 record• Chinese beginning stocks jumped 8% on the year to a record 152 MMT • U.S. 2020/21 beginning stocks dropped 3% year-over-year to 28.4 MMT
Global ending stocks projected at a record 319 MMT, 6% more than last year and 15% more than the 5-year average
• Expected Chinese ending stocks to reach a record 164 MMT, 8% more than last year• U.S. ending stocks are expected to drop 11% from last year to 25.2 MMT, the lowest in 6 years
U.S. wheat farm gate price to decrease slightly from last year• The average farm gate price of U.S. wheat in 2020/21 is forecast fall to $4.50/bu ($165/MT), 2%
below last year’s $4.58/bu ($168/MT)
4
5
731764 770
735748 751
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
MM
T
Production Use
6
*Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
76 70 63
368 389 388
444458 450
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
MM
T
Beginning Stocks Production
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18/19 19/20 20/21SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks 288 284 300
Production 731 764 770Supply Total 1019 1048 1070Ending Stocks 284 300 319
TRADE: Exports/Imports 174 191 189
DEMAND: Food & Seed 596 610 616Feed & Residual 140 138 135Use Total 735 748 751
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Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
61 58 53
16 11 9
8175 85
131 140152
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
MM
T
Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China
9
*Ending stocks
3940
43
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Perc
ent
10
*Ending stocks
2424
25
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
Perc
ent
11
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
58 53 53
11 9 10
75 85 93
140 152164
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
MM
T
5 Major Exporters Black Sea Other China
12
Exporters, 63.2
Importers, 92.5China, 164
Exporters, 63.2
Importers, 92.5China, 164
Exporters, 63.2
Importers, 92.5China, 164
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*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, September 11, 2020
58 53 53
11 9 10
214237
256
$231
$216 $221
$125
$175
$225
$275
$325
$375
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
USD/
MT
MM
T
Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW Price*
Major Exporters
01
15
*Exportable Supplies = (Beginning Stocks + Production) – Domestic Consumption
51 52 48
17 22 20
43 41 45
10 7 7
3448
34
3029
31
1412
2414
15 15
0
50
100
150
200
250
MM
T
Argentina
Australia
Canada
EU
Kazakhstan
Russia
Ukraine
U.S.
16
6.7 5.9 5.0
32.2 32.336.0
0.5 0.70.5
9.1 9.3 10.0
24.4 24.6 25.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
17
5.9
5.0
6.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
MM
T
18
5.5 5.4 3.5
17.615.2
28.5
0.50.8
0.2
9.2 8.4 7.5
9.0 9.5
19.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
19
5.4
3.5
5.7
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
MM
T
20
0.5 1.7 1.7
19.519.7 19.5
6.1 6.3 6.1
12.213.5 13.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
21
1.7 1.7 1.6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
MM
T
22
17.9 16.0 14.8
137
155
136
5.8
4.8
5.5
121 123 117
23.3
38.425.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
23
16.014.8
13.7
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
MM
T
24
12.0 7.8 7.5
71.7 73.678.0
0.4 0.30.5
40.5 40.0 40.5
35.9 34.237.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
25
7.8 7.58.0
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
MM
T
26
1.2 1.6 1.1
25.1
29.2
27.0
8.8 8.7 8.6
16.0
21.0
18.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Domestic use Exports
27
1.6
1.1
1.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
MM
T
28
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
21.2 14.9 13.9
124 130 132
7.8 8.1 8.0
77.1 76.6 77.0
61.0 62.8 62.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic use Exports
29
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
35.9 34.2 37.5
16.0 21.0 18.0
8.36.7 6.3
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
MM
T
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
30
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
14.913.9 14.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
MM
T
31
29.9 29.4 28.4
51.3 52.350.0
3.7 2.9 3.5
30.0 29.8 30.2
25.5 26.3 26.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Domestic Use Exports
32
29.428.4
25.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
MM
T
Import Demand
02
34
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
10.011.012.013.014.0
MM
T
2019/20 2020/21
35
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of May 31, 2020
3.17
2.87 2.78
1.51 1.45
1.18 1.13
0.81 0.80 0.72
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
MM
T
36
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of September 3, 2020
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.8
2.0
MM
T
2019/20 2020/21
37
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
MM
T
"Other" China FSU EU
U.S. Situation by Class
03
39
*Source: June 2020 USDA Acreage Report
23.8 23.2 22.5 21.5
10.3 12.7 12.0 11.5
5.615.89 5.22 5.63
4.024.12
4.12 4.12
2.31 2.061.34 1.50
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Mill
ion A
cres
HRW HRS SRW White Durum
40
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of September 3, 2020
4.49
3.36
2.15
1.52
0.49
4.86
3.81
2.71
1.09
0.49
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
HRW HRS White SRW Durum
MM
T
2019/20 2020/21
41
14.0 14.2
22.7 18.9
10.2 11.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
42
7.2 7.6
14.2 14.4
1.4 1.6
7.3 7.3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
43
4.3 2.9
6.5
7.5
0.10.3
2.5
2.3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
44
2.4 2.6
7.47.5
0.2 0.1
5.1 4.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
45
1.5 1.2
1.51.7
1.1 1.4
1.10.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
46
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
HRW HRS SRW White Durum
MM
T
15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21
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19/20 20/21 19/20 20/21 19/20 20/21
Beginning Stocks 14.0 14.2 7.16 7.62 4.30 2.86Production 22.7 18.9 14.2 14.4 6.50 7.54Supply Total 36.8 33.2 22.8 23.7 10.91 10.7
Domestic Use 12.4 11.6 7.87 8.36 5.55 5.42Exports 10.2 11.2 7.29 7.35 2.50 2.31Use Total 22.6 22.8 15.2 15.7 8.06 7.73
Ending Stocks 14.2 10.5 7.62 7.97 2.86 2.94
Stocks-to-Use 63% 46% 50% 51% 35% 38%
HRW HRS SRW
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19/20 20/21 19/20 20/21 19/20 20/21
Beginning Stocks 2.40 2.59 1.50 1.17 29.4 28.4Production 7.40 7.46 1.47 1.69 52.3 50.0Supply Total 10.0 10.18 4.08 4.22 84.5 81.9
Domestic Use 2.29 2.45 1.77 2.42 29.8 30.2Exports 5.09 4.90 1.14 0.82 26.3 26.5Use Total 7.38 7.35 2.91 3.24 56.1 56.8
Ending Stocks 2.59 2.83 1.17 0.98 28.4 25.2
Stocks-to-Use 35% 39% 40% 30% 51% 44%
White Durum Total
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Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, September 11, 2020
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
$/M
etric
Ton
HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
50
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, September 11, 2020
200
225
250
275
300
$/M
etric
Ton
HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW 10.5% Max
51
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, September 11, 2020
175
200
225
250
275
$/M
etric
Ton
SW 10.5% Max SRW
52
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, September 11, 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
$/M
etric
Ton
HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
53
Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, September 11, 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
$/M
etric
Ton
HRS 14 HRW 12
Outlook
04
55
16.0 15.0 14.8
51.3 52.350.0
3.2
3.53.4
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
MT/
hect
are
Prod
uctio
n (M
MT)
and
Harv
este
d Are
a (m
h)
Harvested Area Production Yield
56
47.845.2 44.3
88.9
89.7 92.089.2
76.1
83.8
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Mill
ion A
cres
Wheat All Corn for Grain Soybeans
5773
1 764
770
735 74
8
751
174
191 189
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n and
Use
(MM
T)
Production Use Trade
5836
1
337 37
0
343 35
2 369
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n and
Use
(MM
T)
Production Use Trade
5911
24
1113 11
62
1126
1121 11
58
181170
186
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n and
Use
(MM
T)
Production Use Trade
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Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, September 11, 2020
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
$/M
etric
ton
PNW to Japan PanamaxGulf to Egypt PanamaxGulf to Nigeria Handysize
Highlights of USDA’s 2020/21 Supply and Demand Estimates
2020/21 global wheat production to jump to a record 770 MMT• Production in Canada to increase 11% from last year to 36.0 MMT, the second-largest on record• Australian production to jump 87% from last year to 28.5 MMT as beneficial rains pull the country out of a
three-year drought• U.S. production to decrease 4% from last year to 50.0 MMT on lower yields and decreased planted area
Global ending stocks projected at a record 319 MMT, 6% higher than last year and 15% more than the 5-year average
• Expected Chinese ending stocks to reach a record 164 MMT, 8% more than last year• U.S. ending stocks are expected to drop 11% from last year to 25.2 MMT, the lowest in 6 years
World consumption to reach a record 751 MMT in 2020/21• Total global trade to fall slightly from last year’s record to 189 MMT, still 4% more than the 5-year average• U.S. 2020/21 domestic consumption to increase 1% from last year to 30.2 MMT
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