World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation · 2018. 12. 12. · 5. Global ending stocks projected at...
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Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released December 11, 2018. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other developments. World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation December 2018
Transcript of World Wheat Supply and Demand Situation · 2018. 12. 12. · 5. Global ending stocks projected at...
Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates released December 11, 2018. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and
other developments.
World Wheat Supply and
Demand SituationDecember 2018
Supply and Demand
Highlights of USDA’s 2018/19 Supply and Demand Estimates
1.2018/19 global wheat production to fall for first time in 5 years• Global supplies estimate to fall to 1013 MMT; down 1% from the 2017/18 record
• Wheat production in Australia to fall to 17.0 MMT, 32% below the 5-year average
• U.S. wheat production estimated at 51.3 MMT, 8% above 2017/18
2.Consumption forecast at a record 744 MMT, 4% above the 5-year average
• Australian feed wheat consumption expected to reach 5.5 MMT, 44% above the 5-year average
• U.S. domestic consumption to grow 7% year over year to 31.3 MMT
3.World wheat trade projected at 177 MMT, 2% above the 5-year average
• Australian exports to drop to 10.5 MMT, 40% below the 5-year average, and the lowest level since 2007/08
• Exports from Russia to fall 15% year over year to 36.5 MMT, still 34% above the 5-year average
• U.S. 2018/19 exports to increase to 27.2 MMT, up 11% from 2017/18, if realized
Supply and Demand
Highlights of USDA’s 2018/19 Supply and Demand Estimates
4. World beginning stocks estimated at record 280 MMT, up 7% year over year• Beginning stocks in Russia forecast at 11.9 MMT, 81% above the 5-year average, and
the highest level since 2011/12
• U.S. beginning stocks will fall to an estimated 29.9 MMT, 7% below 2017/18 levels
5. Global ending stocks projected at 268 MMT, 4% below the record 2017/18 level, if realized• Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 143 MMT account for 53% of global ending stocks
• Exporter ending stocks forecast at 59.3 MMT, down 24% year over year
• Ending stocks in importing countries to fall to 65.3 MMT, 10% below the 5-year average of 72.4 MMT
6. U.S. farm gate average price forecast 9% higher in 2018/19• Projected average range: $5.05 to $5.25/bushel ($186-$193/MT)*
*Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average
Supply and Demand
World Production and Use
76
3
73
3
744 745
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
MM
T
Production Use
Supply and Demand
Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*
*Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine
and Kazakhstan
63 72 72
405 395367
468 468441
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
MM
T
Beginning Stocks Production
Supply and Demand
World Wheat Supply and Demand
16/17 17/18 18/19
MMT
SUPPLY: Beginning Stocks 244 261 280
Production 757 763 733
Supply Total 1001 1024 1013
TRADE: Exports/Imports 183 181 177
DEMAND Food & Seed 592 597 603
Feed & Residual 148 148 142
Use Total 740 744 745
ENDING STOCKS: 261 280 268
Supply and Demand
World Beginning Stocks
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina
and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
56 57
21 21
69 71
115131
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China
Supply and Demand
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio
*Ending stocks
26
34 35
3836
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Pe
rce
nt
Supply and Demand
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o China
*Ending stocks
27
25 24 2523 24
19.9
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Pe
rce
nt
Supply and Demand
World Ending Stocks
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina
and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
56 57 47
21 2113
69 71
65
115131
144
261
280268
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Others China
Supply and Demand
World Ending Stocks by Position(million metric tons)
Exporters, 59.3
Importers, 65.3
China, 144
Supply and Demand
Global Ending Stocks and Price
43 57 47
1621
13
76
138
202209
214
239
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
90/91 94/95 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11 14/15 18/19
$U
S/M
T
MM
T
Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW price
Major Exporters
Import Demand
U.S. Situation by Class
Outlook
Exportable Supplies in Top Exporting Countries
50 50
19 18
5341
1110
32
27
28
29
20
14
13
15
0
50
100
150
200
250
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Argentina
Australia
Canada
EU-25
Kazakhstan
Russia
Ukraine
U.S
Canada Situation
5.26.9 6.2
32.130.0 31.8
20.2
22.024.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Canada Ending Stocks
5.1 5.2
6.9
6.2
5.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
Australia Situation
4.7 4.6 4.7 3.95.7 5.7
23.7 22.3
31.821.3
17.0
16.616.1
22.6
14.0
10.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Australia Ending Stocks
3.1
8.2
7.1
4.6 4.7
3.9
5.7 5.7
3.4
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
MM
T
Argentina Situation
4.1
0.3
2.5
4.8
0.8 0.31.0
15.5
13.9 11.3
18.418.5
19.5
12.9
2.3
5.3
9.6
13.814.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Argentina Ending Stocks
2.3
4.1
0.7
0.3
2.5
4.8
0.8
0.3
1.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
MM
T
European Union Situation
10.7 9.9 12.7 15.5 10.7
145 157 160
145
151 138
32.0 35.5 34.827.4
23.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
EU-27 Ending Stocks
12.8
9.9
12.7
15.5
10.7
14.1
10.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
MM
T
Russia Situation
4.9 5.2 6.3 5.610.8
52.1
59.161.0
72.5
85.0
70.0
22.825.5
27.8
41.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Russia Ending Stocks
13.7
6.3
5.6
10.8
11.9
5.4
0
5
10
15
20
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
MM
T
Black Sea Region Situation
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
15.8 20.7 17.0 21.2 20.9
112 118 130
142 124
51.3 54.4
69.162.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Black Sea Exports
18.622.8 25.5 27.8
41.436.5
9.8
11.3
17.418.1
17.8
16.5
8.1
5.5
7.67.4
9.0
8.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
Black Sea Ending Stocks
23.3
20.7
17.0
21.2 20.9
12.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
MM
T
U.S. Situation
15.5 12.4 8.3 17.9
49.2
55.8
68.4 60.1
24.7
34.4
27.623.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use
U.S. Ending Stocks
20.2
16.1
20.5
26.6
32.1
29.9
26.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
MM
T
Major Exporters
Import Demand
U.S. Situation by Class
Outlook
Major World Wheat Importers(from all origins)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
MM
T
2018/19 2017/18
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat
5-year average
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
MM
T
Source: USDA FAS export sales report December 11, 2018.
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat
Year-to-date
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
MM
T
2018/19 2017/18
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat
2017/18 vs. 2016/17
Source: USDA FAS 2017/18 Marketing Year Final export sales report May 31, 2018.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Mexico Japan Philippines Korea Nigeria Indonesia Taiwan China Colombia
MM
T
2017/18 2016/17
World Wheat Imports
Trend in “other” importers denoted ( )
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
88/89 92/93 96/97 00/01 04/05 08/09 12/13 16/17
MM
T
"Other" China FSU EU-28
Major Exporters
Import Demand
U.S. Situation by Class
Outlook
U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class
*Source: USDA Prospective Plantings Report, March 29, 2018
26.5 23.8 23.2
6.65.6 5.9
4.24.0 4.1
2.12.3 2.0
11.410.3 12.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mil
lio
n A
cre
s
HRW SRW White Durum HRS
U.S. Hard Red Winter
16.0 15.8
20.4 18.0
10.18.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Hard Red Spring
6.4 5.2
10.5
16.0
6.2
8.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Soft Red Winter
5.9 5.6
7.9
7.8
2.53.5
0
5
10
15
20
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. White
2.9 2.4
7.0 7.4
5.3 6.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Durum
1.0 1.0
1.52.1
1.4
1.4
0.5
0.8
0
1
2
3
4
5
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Wheat Sales by Class(year-to-date)
Source: USDA FAS export sales report November 29, 2018.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
HRW HRS White SRW Durum
MM
T
2018/19 2017/18
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
HRW HRS SRW White Durum
MM
T
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19
Beginning Stocks 16.0 15.8 6.4 5.2 5.9 5.6
Production 20.4 18.0 10.5 16.0 7.9 7.8
Imports 0.2 0.1 2.4 2.0 0.1 0.2
Supply Total 36.6 33.9 19.2 23.1 13.9 13.6
Domestic Use 10.7 12.5 7.8 8.0 5.9 5.7
Exports 10.1 9.8 6.2 8.0 2.5 3.3
Use Total 20.8 22.3 14.0 16.1 8.3 9.0
Ending Stocks 15.8 11.6 5.2 7.1 5.6 4.6
Stocks-to-Use 76% 52% 37% 44% 67% 51%
HRW HRS SRW
MMT
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19
Beginning Stocks 2.9 2.4 1.0 1.0 32.1 29.9
Production 7.0 7.4 1.5 2.1 47.4 51.3
Imports 0.2 0.2 1.4 1.4 4.3 3.8
Supply Total 10.1 9.9 3.9 4.4 83.8 85.0
Domestic Use 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.4 29.3 31.3
Exports 5.3 6.0 0.5 0.8 24.5 27.2
Use Total 7.7 8.6 2.9 3.2 53.9 58.5
Ending Stocks 2.4 1.3 1.0 1.2 29.9 26.5
Stocks-to-Use 31% 16% 33% 38% 56% 45%
MMT
White Durum Total
U.S. FOB Gulf Prices
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18
$/M
etr
ic T
on
HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
U.S. FOB PNW Prices
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18
$/M
etr
ic T
on
HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW
SRW and Soft White Prices
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18
$/M
etr
ic T
on
SW SRW
U.S. Gulf Basis Prices
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18
$/M
etr
ic T
on
HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
U.S. PNW Basis Prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18
$/M
etr
ic T
on
HRS 14 HRW 12
Major Exporters
Import Demand
U.S. Situation by Class
Outlook
U.S. Wheat Area and Production
15.2 16.0
47.32.9
3.5
3.13.2
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MT
/he
cta
res
Pro
du
cti
on
(M
MT
) a
nd
Ha
rve
ste
d A
rea
(m
h)
Harvested Area Production Yield
U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison
*Source: USDA Acreage Report June 29, 2018
70.3
50.845.7
47.3
78.9
94.089.1
61.6
84.683.4
89.6
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Mil
lio
n A
cre
s
Wheat All Corn for Grain Soybeans
World WheatProduction, Use and Trade
735 757
76
3
733
711 740
744
745
173
183181
177
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Tra
de
(M
MT
)
Pro
du
cti
on
an
d U
se
(M
MT
)
Production Use Trade
World CornProduction, Use and Trade
973 1078
1076
11
00
970
1061
1086
11
31
120
160148
166
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Tra
de
(M
MT
)
Pro
du
cti
on
an
d U
se
(M
MT
)
Production Use Trade
World SoybeansProduction, Use and Trade
314 348
339 369
314
329
336
352
133147
153 156
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Tra
de
(M
MT
)
Pro
du
cti
on
an
d U
se
(M
MT
)
Production Use Trade
Ocean Freight Rates for Grains
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
11/18/16 5/18/17 11/18/17 5/18/18 11/18/18
$/m
etr
ic t
on
PNW to Japan Gulf to Middle East
Great Lakes to East Med Gulf to West Africa
Summary
• Global production to fall for first time in 5 years
• Australian wheat production to fall to 17.0 MMT, 20% below 2017/18
• Wheat production in the U.S. to reach 51.3 MMT, 8% below the 5-year average
• Global ending stocks to decline to 268 MMT, still 11% above the 5-year average
• Ending stocks in the EU to fall to 11.2 MMT, 11% below the year prior, if realized
• U.S. ending stocks to decrease to 26.5 MMT, down 13% from 2017/18, if realized
• World consumption expected to hit new record in 2018/19; world trade to remain near record high
• Egyptian 2018/19 imports estimated at 12.5 MMT, 10% above the 5-year average
• U.S. 2018/19 exports to total 27.2 MMT, up 11% year over year, if realized
