World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 LEAFLET + CONTENTS

8

Click here to load reader

Transcript of World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 LEAFLET + CONTENTS

Page 1: World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 LEAFLET + CONTENTS

World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020energy business insight

e: [email protected] t: +44 (0)203 4799 505

www.douglas-westwood.com

Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore

• Prospects• Technologies• Markets

Subsea 7

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood

42

World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020

By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Australasia – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure

Chapter 5 : The Subsea Vessel Market Forecast

Figure 28: Australasia – Expenditure by Market and Vessel Day Demand

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Num

ber

of S

ubse

a Tre

es (

Inst

alla

tion)

<250m

250-499m

500-999m

>1000m

Table 17: Australasia – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market Total expenditure: 2016 - 2020

$ bn Field development

$ bn IRM

$ bn Pipeline

$ bn Subsea Intervention

Total vessel days demand 2016-2020:

% Field Development

% IRM

% Pipeline

% Subsea Intervention

Field development activity will account

for the highest number of vessel

demand in the region follow by IRM

sector.

Regionally, total expenditure continues to

slip from 2014 through to 2017 due to

delays to major projects such as the Equus

development which was originally expected

to come onstream in 2017. Activity is

expected to intensify during the latter years

of the forecast period due to strong growth

in field development.

A significant portion of the expenditure

is likely to occur towards the end of the

forecast period, reaching $ bn in 2020.

This is derived from field development ac-

tivities for Greater Gorgon, Bonaparte and

the Greater Western Flank’s further Phase

development.

Field development

Field development expenditure is fore-

casted to reach $ bn over the period

to 2020, accounting for % of the total

expenditure in the region.

The field development sector experienced

an annual average growth rate of %,

the fastest growing sector in the Australasia

market.

Pipeline

Pipelay activities over the next couple of

years will be low. However, major pipeline

projects at the end of the forecast period

will drive growth. Expenditure of the pipe-

line sector amounts to $bn at

%

CAGR, This represents a decrease of 7%

in forecast expenditure compared to the

preceding five years.

The number of vessel days will grow at

88% CAGR even though the Browse Basin

project which is now expected to reach

FID next year has changed from a pipeline

to shore development concept to a floating

LNG. Other major pipeline project such

as the Equus and Scarborough pipeline will

drive vessel demand.

IRMIRM sector vessel day demand experienced

the joint lowest growth among the sectors

in the region at % CAGR

Expenditure over the forecast period

amounts to $bn, growing at %

CAGR. This represents a % growth com-

pared to the preceding five years’ spend.

Subsea intervention

Subsea intervention expenditure will also

experience a % CAGR growth totalling

$ 5bn from 2016-2020. This represents

10% of the region’s expenditure.

Market ($ bn)

20152016

20172018

20192020

Field Development

Pipeline

IRM

Subsea InterventionTotal

Vessel Days

20152016

20172018

20192020

Field Development

Pipeline

IRM

Subsea Intervention

Total

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood

34

World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020

By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Model Summary

Chapter 5 : The Subsea Vessel Market Forecast

Douglas-Westwood The World Subsea Vessel Operations Report

Offshore Production

Oil & Gas Production

Energy Demand

Subsea Infrastructure Subsea Components Subsea Wellstock

Subsea Field Development & ConstructionInspection, Repair & Maintenance Subsea Well InterventionMSV

DSVPipelay

FlexlayLWIV

Subsea Vessel Types Covered in this Report

Colour Key:Macro Economic Driver

Market TrendMarket DriversKey MarketsKey Vessels

The diagram illustrates the DW Vessel De-

mand Model for the World Subsea Vessels

Market Report 2016-2020. O&G production is mainly driven by macro

economic factors. This creates the demand

for subsea infrastructure, components and

wells, which directly affects the require-

ment for specific vessels needed to install

and maintain subsea infrastructure and

equipment.

MethodologyThis report provides a ten-year view of

vessel demand for the following key subsea

markets from 2011 to 2020: Subsea Field Development & Construc-

tion: Installation of subsea production

hardware, subsea processing hardware,

SURF (Infield flowlines, production

umbilicals and risers).Pipeline Construction & Pipeline

Support: Installation of pipeline that

transports product to shore.Inspection, Repair & Maintenance: Of

fixed and floating platforms, subsea pipe-

line and hardware.Subsea Intervention: Subsea well

demand for riserless and rigless well

intervention vessels (excluding actual

drilling rigs).

DW analyses vessel demand and expendi-

ture in ten regions, namely -Africa, Asia,

Australasia, Eastern Europe & FSU, Latin

America, Middle East, North America, Nor-

way, UK and the Rest of Western Europe.

 

The information utilised in the model is

based on the subsea field development

prospects listed in DW’s Oil & Gas Data-

base on the 10th Aug 2015. In this dynamic

industry, any forecasting beyond the very

short-term can be ambiguous. Therefore,

in light of this we have chosen to take a

conservative view of the prospects for the

subsea sector as a whole.In this report, export pipeline support ves-

sels have been taken into consideration to

present a more holistic view of the market. Day rates for the various vessels types will

vary significantly based on their current work

region and individual specifications such as

size, age, dynamic positioning, crane capacity,

ROV, berths, diver capacity, etc. The day

rates modelled are by nature highly specula-

tive for various reasons, among others:Subsea construction contractors do not

disclose individual day rates for their

vessel fleet.Vessels are often contracted as part of

an EPCI type contract award in which

limited information is released into the

public domain.

Rates vary dramatically depending on

the age of the vessel, its capability, the

region and the equipment that can be

installed on its deck.Any additional specialist technology or

engineering expertise required further

increases the day rates. 

An overview of the day rates per vessel

type are provided in Chapter 4. These rates

are predominantly speculative and it is pos-

sible that they could be exceeded or may

not be achieved. Further details of methodology are available

on request.

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 26World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Global Vessel Supply

Chapter 4 : The Vessel Fleet

Figure 17: Active Global Fleet by Type

Figure 18: Book to Fleet by Vessel Type*Subsea vessel supply slated over the forecast period is based on current visibility of orderbook.

%

%

%

%%

DSV

MSV

FLEX

PIPELAY

LWIV

DSV

MSV

FLEX

PIPELAY

LWIV

Number of Units

Active Fleet

On Order

There is a total of subsea vessels in the

global active fleet including MSVs ( %),

DSVs ( %), Pipelays ( %), Flexlays ( %)

and LWIVs ( %).

The current DSV fleet has an average age

of years. As a result of increasing vessel

requirements, an additional DSVs are

expected, a % fleet-to-book ratio.

There is a current oversupply of MSVs.

This is likely to continue with MSVs

on order representing % of all subsea

vessel orders. This also represents the high-

est book-to-fleet ratio in the near future

amongst vessel types.

Flexlays also have a strong book to fleet

ratio of % ( vessels). This is due to

expected higher demand in Africa and Latin

America in the near future.

The pipelay fleet is the oldest with an aver-

age age of years. A high book to fleet

ratio of % ( vessels) is expected to meet

the growing vessel demand requirements as

well as counteract its ageing fleet.

The LWIV fleet is considered to be the

youngest and smallest compared to other

subsea vessel fleet. In the next five years, an

additional % of LWIVs ( vessels) will be

delivered.

Table 4: Vessel Summaries by Type

DSV Vessel OwnerVessel Type

Average Age

Active On OrderDSV 1 DSV 2 DSV3

OceanografiaSubsea 7Hal OffshoreCal DiveOthers

Total

MSV Vessel OwnerVessel Type

Average Age

Active On OrderMSV 1 MSV 2 MSV 3

Bourbon OffshoreDOF ManagementSolstad OffshoreSealion ShippingOthers

Total

Flexlay Vessel Owner

Vessel Type Average

AgeActive On Order

FLEX 1 FLEX 2 FLEX 3

Subsea 7DOF ManagementSapura Navegacao MaritimaTechnip Offshore UKOthers 4

Total

LWIV Vessel Owner

Vessel Type Average

AgeActive On Order

LWIV (Rigless) LWIV (Riserless)

Island Offshore MngtGMSRem Maritime -DOF ManagementOthers 2

Total

Pipelay Vessel Owner

Vessel Type Average

AgeActive On OrderReel

LayJ-Lay S-Lay

Multi-Lay

SaipemSea TrucksTechnip Offshore UKSubsea 7Others

Total

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood

23

World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020

By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Activity by Vessel Type

Chapter 3 : Definitions and Terminology

The diagram examines the type of vessels within each subsea sector of this report – field

development, IRM and subsea well intervention, and plug & abandonment.

In each sector there are vessels able to provide a range of services in shallow and deep

waters. The vessels themselves have been designed to be able to perform a variety of tasks

which make them valuable assets.

Table 3: Vessel Activity by Vessel Type

FIELD DEVELOPMENT & CONSTRUCTION

IRM

WELL INTERVENTION

VESSEL TYPESubsea Production Hardware

Subsea Umbilicals, Risers and Flowlines (SURF)Processing Hardware

PipelinesInspection

Repair & Maintenance Category ACategory B

Category C

SD

S D

SD

SD

SD

SD

SD

SD

SD

DSV

TYPE 1TYPE 2

TYPE 3

MSV

TYPE 1TYPE 2

TYPE 3

Flex

lay TYPE 1

TYPE 2 TYPE 3

Pipe

lay REEL LAY

S-LAY

J-LAY

LWIV RISERLESS

RIGLESS

Vessel is capable of operating in this sector and water depth

Vessel may be able to perform or assist with tasks.

Vessel is not capable of operating in this sector and water depth.

SShallow Water <500mD

Deepwater >500m

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood

20

World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020

By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Vessel Types Chapter 3 : Definitions and Terminology

Vessels are becoming increasingly multi-purpose in order to reduce over-dependence on a specific market. Below is an overview of the various vessels referred to in this report and the primary markets with which they are associated.

Aside from the following vessels, other vessel types are not included in this report.

Increasing Dayrates

MSVs are vessels with both crane and ROV

capacity. They range greatly in size and abil-

ity from survey vessels with 20mt cranes to

400mt active heave compensation (AHC)

crane vessels, used for deepwater subsea field

development.

As a result, these vessels are often used in a

range of markets from geotechnical surveying,

to construction, IRM and even support services.

Multipurpose Support Vessels (MSV)DSVs are characterised as having saturation

diving capability. Increasingly, these vessels are

being equipped with larger crane capacities to

enable them to work in deeper waters.

Similar to MSVs, these vessels are used in a

variety of markets. However, DSVs are typically

not suited to geotechnical & geophysical work.

Dive Support Vessels (DSV) Light Well Intervention vessels are defined by

the presence of a wireline mast and subsea

lubricator system which allows access to subsea

wells to perform remedial or production

enhancement work.

Although riserless intervention is currently lim-

ited to shallow waters, these vessels tend to be

high end units capable of providing construc-

tion support and IRM services in deepwater.

Light Well Intervention (LWIV)

Three methods of pipe laying are used –

Reel-lay, S-lay and J-lay. Each laying technique

requires a specialist vessel equipped for the

purpose.

Larger vessels are also capable of installing rigid

pipe as well as flexible.

Pipe Lay

Flexlay vessels are used to install flexible lines

such as flowlines, umbilicals and risers – but are

not suitable for rigid lines.

A flexlay system mainly consists o

f a vertical

ramp equipped with a number of tensioners

and a chute or wheel on top.

Cable & Flex-Lay

Main Markets Served

Main Markets Served

Main Markets Served

Main Markets Served

Main Markets Served

IRM (ROV work)

Field Development (dependent on

crane capacity)

Pipelay support

IRM (ROV & Dive work)

Field Development (dependent on

crane capacity)

Pipelay support

IRM (ROV & Dive work)

Field Development (dependent on

crane capacity)

Well intervention services.

Flowlines (Flex)

Risers (Flex)

Umbilicals

Offshore Wind Farm Cables

IRM (ROV & Dive work)

Field Development (dependent on

crane capacity)

Flowlines (Flex & Rigid)

Risers

Umbilicals

IRM (ROV & Dive work)

Field Development (dependent on

crane capacity)

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood

13

World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020

By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Subsea Focus Areas

Chapter 2 : Drivers and Indicators

Specification requirements of subsea

vessels are largely determined by

a combination of water depth and

metaocean conditions.Markets with harsh sea states such as

the North Sea will typically need high-

end assets with excellent power rating

and station keeping.Deepwater markets such as Africa

or Brazil will require larger vessels

with high crane and top-tensioning

capability.

Shallow water, benign regions such

as Asia and the Middle East typically

favour less complex vessels. However,

increasing customer preference for

reliability and operational efficiency is

driving change in these regional fleets.

North America

The North American market is focused

on the GoM which is comprised of a very

large and mature shallow water segment

and ultra-deep water segment. Sea states

are typically benign but harsh during the

hurricane season which lasts from June to

November.

2,101 16% 1,060m Benign

Latin America

Latin American subsea activity is domi-

nated by Brazil through state-owned oil

company Petrobras. Brazil alone will ac-

count for 16% of global tree installations

over the next five years, 94% of these will

be in ultra-deep water.

2,140 19% 1,200m Medium

Africa

As a part of the deepwater ‘Golden

Triangle’, Africa is a major subsea market.

Historically, subsea activity has been

focused in the Gulf of Guinea. However,

East Africa is expected to become one

of the world’s prominent growth markets

over the next decade. Subsea activities

are dominated by IOCs.

3,478 25%931m Benign

Australia

The market is a major subsea growth

province with a substantial backlog of

major gas export projects. Similar to the

North Sea, the operating environment is

relatively shallow but challenged by harsh

weather.

6826%

429m Medium/Harsh

North Sea

Traditionally, the North Sea is shallow

water with 62% of trees installed in water

depth <250m over the past five years.

Extreme metaocean conditions neces-

sitate high specification vessels.

3,289 10%200m Harsh

Asia

Asia is a very large, predominately shallow

water market. Activities are currently fo-

cused on Bay of Bengal, Java Sea, Celebes

Sea and South China Sea. Although the

market is currently focused on shallow

water IRM activities.

9109%

480m Benign/Medium

Key

2011-2015 Average subsea

production kboe/d

Typical metocean conditions

Average tree water depth as

of 2015

2011-2015 % Subsea tree population

Figure 7: Subsea Focus Areas

Protracted Supply Overhang & a Gradual Recovery in Subsea Vessel Operations SpendLow hydrocarbon prices, coupled with excessive newbuilding programmes will result in low utilisation impacting day rates and overall expenditure over the forecast period. However, with eventual recovery at the end of the forecast period, subsea vessel demand is set to grow at a 5.2% CAGR over the next five years. Global subsea vessel operations expenditure is expected to increase by 29% when compared to the preceding five-year period, totalling $97.7 billion (bn) from 2016 to 2020.

Africa, Latin America and North America are expected to account for 47.5% of global expenditure between 2016 and 2020. These regions remain vital to subsea vessel demand over the forecast period despite falling oil prices, project delays and political instability associ-ated with Africa. The development of East African gas basins in the Indian Ocean will contribute to subsea vessel demand in the latter years of the forecast period.

Asia will be the single largest market with an anticipated 18.7% of expenditure over the next five years, largely driven by shallow water inspection repair & mainte-nance (IRM) and pipelay-related activities.

Australasia has the fastest growth rate of all of the re-gions at a 46.8% CAGR due to massive offshore gas field developments required to support its ambitious LNG export commitments. Activity in the Middle East will rep-resent 9% of the total global subsea vessel expenditure.

Field development (36%) and IRM (40%) will remain the principal drivers of global subsea vessel demand and expenditure. As production in shallow water basins declines, activities in deeper water are set to increase as deepwater development becomes inevi-table. However, operators will continue to invest in the optimisation of existing shallow water fields.

The World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 analyses the main factors driving demand for MSV, DSV, Flexlay, LWIV and Pipelay vessels, sup-ported by analysis, insight and industry consultation and includes:

• Drivers & indicators – a review of factors influ-encing subsea markets, including; growing global energy demand; continued development of offshore reserves; oil & gas prices; field complex-ity, technology and cost evolution; the role of deepwater and how all of these drivers impact the subsea vessel operations market.

• Vessel fleet supply side analysis – global vessel supply trends for DSVs, MSVs, Flexlays, Pipelays and LWIVs with historic vessel deliveries from 1960-2015 and current vessel supply and order-book segmented by vessel type and owner.

• Regional analysis – expenditure and vessel day demand by market with trend commentary for Africa, Asia, Australasia, Eastern Europe & FSU, Latin America, Middle East, North America, Norway, UK and Rest of Western Europe.

Page 2: World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 LEAFLET + CONTENTS

World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020energy business insight

e: [email protected] t: +44 (0)203 4799 505

www.douglas-westwood.com

Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore

To OrderComplete the order form and mail, fax or email us your

details.

Payment: goods will only be dispatched on receipt of

payment in full. A pre-payment invoice will be issued on

request. Payment must be made in UK Pounds. Payment

may be by a cheque drawn on a UK bank.

Credit card owners: give full name and address of the

cardholder and telephone number - you will not be billed

until dispatch.

Copyright: you agree that this report is the copyright of

the authors; it is for use only within your own organisation,

will not be made available in any form to third parties and

will not be copied or transmitted electronically.

Multiple copies: special prices are available on request for

multiple PDF or hardcopies - please call or email for details.

Executive Presentation Service: a PowerPoint-based

presentation of the results of this report can be made by

our analysts at your company offices for an additional fee.

Please contact us for details.

Name ........................................................................................ Job Title ..............................................................................

Company .................................................................................................................................................................................

Deliver address ......................................................................................................................................................................

Cardholders address ............................................................................................................................................................

Card Number ......................................................................... CCV number .........................Expiry date .......................

Signature .................................................................................. Email ....................................................................................

Tel no. ....................................................................................... Fax ........................................................................................

EU companies must give an EU VAT number ...................................................................................................

Preferred format: Number of Users: PDF * Single User (1 copy) 3650 UK Pounds Hardcopy ** Multi-User (5 copies) 4650 UK Pounds

Payment Method: Pre-payment invoice AMEX / MasterCard / Visa

Order Form

I understand that the study is copyright and for use only within my organisation. It will not be copied, or otherwise circulated to third parties or distributed electronically. (please tick)

* VAT will be added when applicable** Hardcopy deliveries outside the UK will be via DHL couriers at an additional cost of UK Pounds 60

Why purchase the World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast?DW’s market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services compa-nies and top-10 private equity firms.

The report is essential for financial institutions, vessel owners, equipment manufacturers, offshore engineering, construction, operations & maintenance companies and contractors, E&P operators, oil & gas companies and government agencies & depart-ments wanting to make more informed investment decisions.

Our proven approach includes:

• Unique and proprietary data – updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.

• Detailed methodology – the report uses a unique market model specifically developed in collaboration with leading subsea industry participants. Based on the DW's proprietary databases covering vessels and offshore oil and gas developments, the report includes a market forecast with analysis based on unique data.

• Comprehensive analysis – expenditure and ves-sel day demand are segmented by field develop-ment, IRM, pipeline and subsea intervention for each region, covering the 2011-2020 period.

• Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points through-out.

ISBN 978-1-910045-24-4

"A great report for gaining market insight"

- Shipbroker

"The regional analysis is excellent"

- Vessel Operator

"Gave our team a great understanding of the market"- Subsea Equipment Manufacturer

Page 3: World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 LEAFLET + CONTENTS

2016 World Subsea Vessel Operations

Market Forecast

Prospects, Technologies, World Markets

2016-2020

Courtesy Subsea 7

Page 4: World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 LEAFLET + CONTENTS

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 2World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Contents

Table of Contents

1 Summary and Conclusions ......................................7Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 8

Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 9

2 Drivers and Indicators ........................................... 10Population, GDP & Energy Demand ....................................................................................... 11

Evolution of Offshore E&P Industry ....................................................................................... 12

Subsea Focus Areas .................................................................................................................... 13

Oil – Supply & Demand ............................................................................................................. 14

Oil Price Volatility ....................................................................................................................... 15

Natural Gas .................................................................................................................................. 16

Oil & Gas Challenges ................................................................................................................. 17

3 Definitions and Terminology ................................ 18Offshore Field Lifecycle and Subsea Vessels .......................................................................... 19

Vessel Types ................................................................................................................................ 20

Vessel Definitions ........................................................................................................................ 21

Vessel Definitions cont. ............................................................................................................ 22

Activity by Vessel Type .............................................................................................................. 23

4 The Vessel Fleet ...................................................... 24Global Vessel Supply ................................................................................................................... 25

DSVs – Supply Side Market Trends ......................................................................................... 27

MSVs – Supply Side Market Trends ......................................................................................... 28

Flexlays – Supply Side Market Trends ..................................................................................... 29

Pipelays – Supply Side Market Trends ..................................................................................... 30

LWIVs – Supply Side Market Trends ....................................................................................... 31

Day Rate Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 32

5 The Subsea Vessel Market Forecast ................... 33Model Summary........................................................................................................................... 34

Global Market – by Region ....................................................................................................... 35

Global Market – by Sector ........................................................................................................ 36

Africa – Market Overview & Drivers ..................................................................................... 37

Africa – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure ......................................................................... 38

Asia – Market Overview & Drivers ......................................................................................... 39

Asia – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure ............................................................................ 40

Australasia – Market Overview & Drivers ............................................................................. 41

Australasia – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure ................................................................ 42

Eastern Europe & FSU – Market Overview & Drivers ........................................................ 43

Eastern Europe & FSU – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure............................................ 44

Latin America – Market Overview & Drivers ....................................................................... 45

Latin America – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure ........................................................... 46

Middle East – Market Overview & Drivers ........................................................................... 47

Middle East – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure ............................................................... 48

North America – Market Overview & Drivers .................................................................... 49

North America – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure ........................................................ 50

Norway – Market Overview & Drivers ................................................................................. 51

Norway – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure ..................................................................... 52

UK – Market Overview & Drivers .......................................................................................... 53

UK – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure .............................................................................. 54

RoWE – Market Overview & Drivers .................................................................................... 55

RoWE – Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure ........................................................................ 56

6 Appendix .................................................................. 57Data and Text Conventions ...................................................................................................... 58

Page 5: World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 LEAFLET + CONTENTS

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 3World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Contents

Figures

Figure 1: Global Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Region 2011-2020 ...........................8Figure 2: Global Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Sector 2011-2020 ............................8Figure 3: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2035 ............................................... 11Figure 4: OECD and Non-OECD Energy Intensity, 1980-2015e ....................................................... 11Figure 5: Onshore vs Offshore Oil & Gas Production, 2005-2021 ................................................... 12Figure 6: Development Wells by Water Depth (1960–2020) ............................................................. 12Figure 7: Subsea Focus Areas ............................................................................................................................... 13Figure 8: Oil Price & Demand 1990-2015 ...................................................................................................... 14Figure 9: World Liquids Production Growth 2005-2015 ...................................................................... 14Figure 10: Historical Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2010 – July 2015 .................................... 15Figure 11: Brent Annual Average Spot Price Forecasts 2010-2017 ................................................... 15Figure 12: Levellised Cost of Energy ($/MWh) in 2020 .......................................................................... 16Figure 13: Natural Gas Prices ($/mmBtu), 2000-2020 ............................................................................. 16Figure 14: Oil & Gas Production versus E&P Spend 2000-2015e ...................................................... 17Figure 15: Skilled Workers by Age Category 2014 .................................................................................... 17Figure 16: Historic Vessel Deliveries by Type 1960-2015 ....................................................................... 25Figure 17: Active Global Fleet by Type ........................................................................................................... 26Figure 18: Book-to-Fleet by Vessel Type .......................................................................................................... 26Figure 19: 2015 vs. 2014 Day Rate Range ...................................................................................................... 32Figure 20: Global Vessel Operations Expenditure by Region .............................................................. 35Figure 21: Global Vessel Operations Expenditure by Sector ................................................................ 36Figure 22: Global Expenditure by Sector, 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 ............................................ 36Figure 23: Africa – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres) ......................................... 37Figure 24: Africa – Expenditure by Market ..................................................................................................... 38Figure 25: Asia – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres) ............................................ 39Figure 26: Asia – Expenditure by Market ........................................................................................................ 40Figure 27: Australasia – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres) .............................. 41Figure 28: Australasia – Expenditure by Market .......................................................................................... 42Figure 29: Eastern Europe & FSU – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres) ..... 43Figure 30: Eastern Europe & FSU – Expenditure by Market ................................................................. 44Figure 31: Latin America – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)........................ 45Figure 32: Latin America – Expenditure by Market ................................................................................... 46Figure 33: Middle East – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres) ............................. 47Figure 34: Middle East – Expenditure by Market ........................................................................................ 48Figure 35: North America – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)..................... 49

Figure 36: North America – Expenditure by Market ................................................................................ 50Figure 37: Norway – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres) .................................... 51Figure 38: Norway – Expenditure by Market ................................................................................................ 52Figure 39: UK – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres) ............................................... 53Figure 40: UK – Expenditure by Market .......................................................................................................... 54Figure 41: RoWE – Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres) ....................................... 55Figure 42: RoWE – Expenditure by Market ................................................................................................... 56

Page 6: World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 LEAFLET + CONTENTS

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 4World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Contents

Tables

Table 1: Vessel Type Definitions............................................................................................................................ 21Table 2: LWIV Definitions ........................................................................................................................................ 22Table 3: Vessel Activity by Vessel Type ............................................................................................................. 23Table 4: Vessel Summaries by Type ..................................................................................................................... 26Table 5: DSV Leading Vessel Owner 2015 ..................................................................................................... 27Table 6: MSV Leading Vessel Owner 2015 ..................................................................................................... 28Table 7: Flexlay Leading Vessel Owner 2015 ................................................................................................ 29Table 8: Pipelay Leading Vessel Owner 2015 ................................................................................................ 30Table 9: LWIV Leading Vessel Owner 2015 ................................................................................................... 31Table 10: Global Vessel Operations Expenditure by Region ............................................................... 35Table 11: Global Expenditure by Sector .......................................................................................................... 36Table 12: Africa – Key Infrastructure .................................................................................................................. 37Table 13: Africa – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market ..................................................... 38Table 14: Asia – Key Infrastructure ..................................................................................................................... 39Table 15: Asia – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market ........................................................ 40Table 16: Australasia – Key Infrastructure ....................................................................................................... 41Table 17: Australasia – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market .......................................... 42Table 18: Eastern Europe & FSU – Key Infrastructure .............................................................................. 43Table 19: Eastern Europe & FSU – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market ................. 44Table 20: Latin America – Key Infrastructure................................................................................................. 45Table 21: Latin America – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market ................................... 46Table 22: Middle East – Key Infrastructure ...................................................................................................... 47Table 23: Middle East – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market......................................... 48Table 24: North America – Key Infrastructure.............................................................................................. 49Table 25: North America – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market ................................ 50Table 26: Norway – Key Infrastructure ............................................................................................................. 51Table 27: Norway – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market ................................................ 52Table 28: UK – Key Infrastructure ........................................................................................................................ 53Table 29: UK – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market........................................................... 54Table 30: RoWE – Key Infrastructure ................................................................................................................ 55Table 31: RoWE – Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market ................................................... 56

Page 7: World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 LEAFLET + CONTENTS

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 5World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Notes & Acknowledgements

About Us

Disclaimer

This report is a Douglas-Westwood (DW)

study and all rights are reserved, whether

this pertains to the body of the report or any

information contained within. The information

contained in this document is believed to be

accurate, but no representation or warranty,

express or implied, is made by Douglas-West-

wood as to the completeness, accuracy or

fairness of any information contained in it, and

we do not accept any responsibility in relation

to such information whether fact, opinion or

conclusion that the reader may draw. The

views expressed are those of the individual

authors and do not necessarily represent those

of the publisher.

While we have made every attempt to ensure

the information contained in this document

has been obtained from reliable sources,

Douglas-Westwood is not responsible for any

errors or omissions, or for the results obtained

from the use of this information. All informa-

tion in this document is provided “as is”,

with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy,

timeliness or of the results obtained from the

use of this information, and without warranty

of any kind, express or implied, including, but

not limited to warranties of performance, mer-

chantability and fitness for a particular purpose.

Nothing herein shall to any extent substitute

for the independent investigations and the

sound technical and business judgment of the

reader. Laws and regulations are continually

changing, and can be interpreted only in light

of particular factual situations.

World Subsea Vessel Operations

Market Forecast

is published by:

Douglas-Westwood Limited,

20 East Street

Faversham

Kent

ME13 8AS, UK

tel: +44 203 4799 505

fax: +44 1795 594748

[email protected]

© Copyright Douglas-Westwood

Limited 2015

By purchasing this document, your

organisation agrees that it will not

copy or allow to be copied in part or

whole or otherwise circulated in any

form any of the contents without the

written permission of the publishers.

Additional copies of this study may be

purchased at a specially discounted

rate.

DW report number 574-16

ISBN978-1-910045-24-4

Production Team

Editor

Steve Robertson

[email protected]

Assistant Editor(s)

Thom Payne

[email protected]

Hannah Lewendon

[email protected]

Report Author

Mark Adeosun

[email protected]

Layout & Graphic Design

Oliver Solly

[email protected]

Page 8: World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020 LEAFLET + CONTENTS

© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 6World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood

Douglas-Westwood’s Offerings

Notes & Acknowledgements

About Us

Established in 1990, Douglas-Westwood is

a leading provider of market research and

consulting services to the energy industry

worldwide. We have completed over 1,000

projects for clients in more than 70 differ-

ent countries and in some 250 niche energy

segments. Our clients range from the oil &

gas majors and their contractors to financial

houses and governments. We are an

independent organisation and our research

is supported by proprietary data, insight

and knowledge. Our international reach is

backed up by one of the largest sector-

focused teams in offices in the Americas,

Europe and Asia.

Douglas-Westwood clients include the

world’s:

Top-10 oil & gas companies

Top-10 oilfield services companies

“Energy experts Douglas-Westwood”

The Guardian

Consultancy

With an extensive advisory team spanning

three continents, Douglas-Westwood deliv-

ers energy business consultancy services

across the globe. DW consultancy services

are focused on the strategic planning pro-

cess, helping our clients to make investment

decisions, develop and test advanced com-

petitive strategies for new products, new

business streams, mergers and acquisitions,

We provide consultancy services through

advanced market insight, modelling and

simulation to a client base which includes

players in oil & gas E&P, oilfield services,

conventional & renewable energy and the

public sector.

Douglas-Westwood has supplied con-

sultancy services to over 250 companies

worldwide.

“Foremost oilfield services

market consultant”

Hong Kong client

Transactions

Douglas-Westwood provides sector-

focused commercial due-diligence and

transactions services to major and mid-tier

private equity firms, investment banks

and debt providers. We have industry-

leading credentials including both buy-side

and sell-side mandates, public-to-private

transactions, re-financing, IPOs and project

financing ranging in enterprise value from

$5 million technology firms to $1 billion

oilfield service, engineering and equipment

companies.

Douglas-Westwood clients include the

world’s:

Top-10 private equity firms

Top-10 investment banks

“Douglas-Westwood provides

great value to us”

Perth client

Research

Business research, analysis and market

forecasting is our core activity. Over the

years we have built a huge knowledge base

of both sectors and players. Our experience

of researching the oilfield services sector

(OFS) is unparalleled worldwide. We spe-

cialise in emerging markets and technolo-

gies, from offshore windpower to subsea

processing and difficult to access markets

and geographies including Russia and the

Middle East. Our custom research offerings

include: gathering & analysis of market data,

independent marketing and forecasting,

measurement & analysis of competitive po-

sitions and industry consultation & in-depth

perception surveys.

Douglas-Westwood have researched some

250 different business sectors to wide

international acclaim.

“Top energy research group

Douglas-Westwood”

Financial Times

Publications

Douglas-Westwood produces original en-

ergy business market studies and forecasts,

now highly acclaimed and used worldwide.

In oil & gas we were the first firm to

forecast & value the growth of key offshore

markets such as deepwater, subsea produc-

tion, global onshore drilling, pipelines and

offshore wind power.

Our reports are geared to meet senior

executives’ needs in business planning and

decision-making and assume no previous

reader knowledge of the subject area. Each

offers a concise, region by region format.

Analysis is based on our extensive in-house

project databases and models combined

with forecasting expertise developed over

many years.

Douglas-Westwood has over 20 energy

sector market forecast titles in print.

“An excellent report in all areas”

Houston client