World Pump Market Report

The World Pump Market 2006-2011

Volume I

October 2006

European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

I INTRODUCTION

II GLOBAL ISSUES II 1

Pump Market Summary II 1

Pump Market Size by World Region and End Use (table) II 2

Pump Market Size in General Industry and by Product Type (table) II 3

The Market for Complete Pumps in 63 Countries II 4

Pump Market in West Europe II 5

Pump Market in East Europe II 6

Pump Market in Africa & Middle East II 7

Pump Market in Asia II 8

Pump Market in America II 9

Macro-Economics, GDP and Investment II 10

World Trade Growth and Oil Prices (charts) II 11

Forecast of GDP Growth II 12

GDP Growth by World Region (table) II 13

GDP Growth by Country in West Europe (table) II 14

GDP Growth by Country in East Europe (table) II 15

GDP Growth by Country in Africa & Middle East (table) II 16

GDP Growth by Country in Asia (table) II 17

GDP Growth by Country in America (table) II 18

Contents - Volume I - Page 1

Investment and the Pump Market II 19

Forecast Investment Growth Rates by World Region II 20

World Investment Trends in Industrial and Other Countries II 21

Investment Trends by End Use Industry II 22

Oil, Gas, Refining II 23

World Oil Production and Investment II 24

World Oil Production (chart), Some Recent Trends in Oil & Gas Capital Expenditure II 25

Capital Investment in Oil Refining (charts) II 26

World LNG Production II 27

World LNG Production and LNG Capital Costs (charts) II 28

Oil Refining Investment (chart) II 29

Chemicals II 30

Capital Investment in Chemicals - Industrial & Other Countries (charts) II 31

Capital Investment in Chemicals by Major Companies II 32

Power Generation II 33

Capital Investment in Power Generation - Industrial & Other Countries (charts) II 34

Water & Sewerage II 35

Capital Investment in Water & Sewerage - Industrial & Other Countries (charts) II 36

General Industry II 37

Capital Investment in General Industry - Industrial & Other Countries (charts) II 38

Investment Summary by End Use Industry II 39

Capital Investment by World Region (table) II 40

Capital Investment in Plant & Equipment by End Use (table) II 41


Pump Markets in the World's Largest Countries II 42

Some Key Issues (table), Complete Pump Market Trends in West Europe (chart) II 43

Complete Pump Market Trends for USA (chart), and Russia (chart) II 44

Complete Pump Market Trends for China II 45

Complete Pump Market Trends for India II 46

Pump Export/Import Summary II 47

China as a Supplier: Complete Pumps, Pump Parts, Significance of China as a Supplier II 48

Imports of Complete Pumps by 63 countries 2002-2005, Ranked by China's share in 2005 II 49

Imports of Pump Parts by 63 countries 2002-2005, Ranked by China's share in 2005 II 50

Pump Exports by Suppliers not Identified in Detail II 51

Pump Exports by Destination (charts),supplied by Switzerland, Russia, Poland, Norway, Czech Republic

II 52

Pump Exports by Destination (charts),supplied by Korea-South, Taiwan, Hong Kong,, India

II 53

Pump Exports by Destination (charts),supplied by Canada, Mexico, Brazil

II 54

Uncertainties Surrounding the Forecasts II 55-57

Pump Market Size - USA, Europump Countries and Japan Compared II 58

Complete Pump Market Size: USA and Japan Compared (table) II 58

Pump Production and Market Size: Europump Member Countries and USA II 59

Europump Members and USA: Production and EIF estimates of market size (table) II 60


III THE PUMP MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE

Introduction III 1

Summary of the World Pump Market by World Region and Product Type III 2

The World Market for Complete Pumps by Product Type (chart) III 3

The Market for Pump Parts III 4

Imports of Pump Parts - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 5

Centrifugal Pumps III 6

Centrifugal Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts) III 7

Centrifugal Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 8

Reciprocating Pumps III 9

Reciprocating Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts) III 10

Reciprocating Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 11

Rotary Pumps III 12

Rotary Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts) III 13

Rotary Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 14

Measuring & Dispensing Pumps III 15

Measuring & Dispensing Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts) III 16

Measuring & Dispensing Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 17

Domestic & Other Pumps III 18

Domestic & Other Pumps by End Use and World Region (charts) III 19

Domestic & Other Pump Market - Rankings by 63 Countries (table) III 20


IV THE PUMP MARKET BY END USE INDUSTRY

Introduction IV 1

Summary of Pump Market Size by end Use Industry IV 2

The World Pump Market by End Use Industry (table) IV 3

Methods of Analysis by End Use Industry IV 4- IV 10

Composition of Demand: Engineered, Standard and Special Purpose Pumps V 11

Market Sizes for Engineered Pumps (chart) IV 12

Market Sizes for Standard Pumps (chart) IV 13

Market Sizes for Special Purpose Pumps (chart) IV 14

Oil & Gas Production & Refining IV 15

Oil, Gas, Refining by 63 Countries IV 15

Oil, Gas, Refining - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 16

Oil and Gas Production - market size (chart) IV 17

Oil and Gas Production - market change 2006-2011 (chart) IV 18

Onshore Oil/Gas Requirements by Application (table) IV 19

Offhore Oil/Gas Requirements by Application (table) IV 20

Oil Refining - market size (chart) IV 21

Oil Refining - market change 2006-2011 (chart) IV 22

Oil Refining - Requirements by Application (table) IV 23

Chemical Industry IV 24

Chemicals - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 25-IV 26

Basic Chemicals - market size (chart) IV 27

Basic Chemicals - market change 2006-2011 (chart) IV 28

Basic Chemicals - Requirements by Application (table) IV 29

Contents - Volume 1 - Page 5


Other Chemicals - market size (chart) IV 30

Other Chemicals - market change 2006-2011 (chart) IV 31

Other Chemicals - Requirements by Application (table) IV 32

Power Generation IV 33

Power Generation - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 33-IV 34

Power Generation - market size (chart) IV 35

Power Generation - market change 2006-2011 (chart) IV 36

Coal/Oil Fired Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table) IV 37

Gas Turbine/Combined Cycle Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table)

IV 38

Nuclear Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table) IV 39

Hydroelectric Power Generation - Requirements by Application (table) IV 40

Water & Sewerage IV 41

Water & Sewerage - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 42-IV 43

Water & Sewerage - market size (chart) IV 44

Water & Sewerage - market change 2006-2011 (chart) IV 45

Water & Sewerage - Requirements by World Region (table) IV 46



General Industry IV 47

General Industry - Ranking by 63 Countries (table) IV 48 - IV 49

Mineral Mining & Processing (charts on market size & growth) IV 50 - IV 52

Pulp & Paper (charts on market size & growth) IV 53 - IV 55

Food, Drink, Pharmaceuticals (charts on market size & growth) IV 56 - IV 58

Metal Manufacturing (charts on market size & growth) IV 59 - IV 61

Marine (charts on market size & growth) IV 62 - IV 64

Construction Related and Other Industries IV 65

Building Services (charts on size & growth) IV 65 - IV 66

Construction Dewatering (charts on size & growth) IV 67 - IV 68

Domestic Pumps (charts on size & growth) IV 69 - IV 70

Construction Related & Other Industries by World Region (table) IV 71 - IV 73



The World Market for Pumps - Introduction - Page I 1

I INTRODUCTION

The entire report consists of two separately-bound volumes which

together contain the following sections:

Volume 1 - Overview

Covers macro-economic developments, the pump market by country,

market by pump type, market by world region and end use industry

I Introduction

II Global Issues

III The Market by Product Type

IV The Market by End Use

Volume 2 - Detailed Results by Country

Analysis by Country - market forecasts for 63 countries

Appendix on Methodolgy



Coverage of the Report

The report has the following coverage:

Covers 4.8 billion of the 6.5 billion world population

63 countries with the highest GDP are separately identified

90% of world GDP, 85% of the world pump market

Pump market coverage for most end uses is around 85% of the world market but: - Mineral mining/processing: around 75% - Water & sewerage: around 80%

What is provided: - Forecasts 2006-2011: complete pump market - Historial data 2002-2005: imports of complete pumps and pump parts



Status of Annual Data Provided in the Report

Although annual results are provided, the purpose is to show structural

change by end use industry, country and world region. The annual figures are

intended to capture the shape of the trade cycle, but they should not be

regarded as a reliable short-term forecast for 2006/7. This is because actual

data ends in 2005 and is subject to revision. Figures for the current year

(2006) are estimated and, from past experience, are subject to significant

revision. Moreover it is not possible to take account of specific short-term

developments affecting each end use in the individual countries.

Revisions to Historical Data

We have carried out revisions to historical market size for many developing

countries, based on a revised analysis of pump imports. Market size has been

increased significantly for a number of countries, notably affecting results for

China, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia. Another new feature of this year's

report is the full inclusion of China as a pump supplier, showing imports of

complete pumps and pump parts by each of the 63 identified countries.

Attribution and Copyright

This report was prepared by European Industrial Forecasting Ltd (EIF). EIF

retains all copyright in the report, which may not be copied, in whole or in

part, or distributed to any organisation, person or company other than the

subscriber.

The World Market for Pumps - Global Issues - Page II 1

(C) European Industrial Forecasting Ltd 2006

II GLOBAL ISSUES

PUMP MARKET SUMMARY

Forecasts for the pump market provided in this report are conditional on

macro-economic assumptions and trends in investment. Given these

assumptions, pump market forecasts are arrived at by regression equations

linking historical data on the pump market with historical data on investment

in plant and equipment by end use industry.

This section starts by summarising the pump market forecasts and then

continues by providing the macro-economic forecasts and some of the trends

in investment by end use industry which helped to determine the pump

market forecasts.

Market size in 2006 is shown on Page II 2. The main difference from last

year's report is a large increase for China and Latin America. Growth rates

are generally slower than in last year's report, as a result of the impact of

high oil prices on demand, although faster growth is expected in oil-rich

areas such as Russia and the Middle East. The Chinese market is expected to

fall from the very high level of 2006.

Please note: all pump market estimates relate to complete pumps, including

drivers, excluding parts.



Market by World Region$ million 2006(2003 prices)

Volume growth% p.a. 2006-2011

West Europe 5241 2.2Russia 389 6.5Other East Europe 406 5.6Africa 486 4.0Middle East 1188 6.7China 2850 -4.6India 603 7.9Japan 2981 1.4Pacific Rim * 1267 4.1Other Asia (inc. Australia/New Zealand) 514 4.8USA/Canada 4512 2.9Latin America 1596 4.7Total World Market 22039 2.4

World Pump Market by Regioncomplete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts

Market by End Use Industry(63 country aggregate)

$ million 2006(2003 prices)


Oil, Gas, Refining 3068 3.9

Chemicals 2579 3.2

Power Generation 1843 3.7

Water & Sewerage 3401 1.4

General Industry 11397 2.0

Total Market 22039 2.4

World Pump Market by End Usecomplete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts

* Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Philippines



Sub-division of Pump Market in General Industrycomplete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts

Market by End Use Industry(63 country aggregate)

$ billion 2006(2003 prices)


Mineral mining/processing 740 2.6

Food, drink, pharmaceuticals 1245 1.5

Pulp & paper 713 3.0

Metal manufacturing 901 0.3

Marine 393 4.6

Building services 1471 1.6

Construction dewatering 1087 1.7

Other industry 3094 1.7

Domestic 1753 2.8

General Industry Total 11397 2.0

Market by Pump Type $ billion 2006(2003 prices)Volume growth

% p.a. 2006-2011Centrifugal 12349 2.3

Reciprocating 2831 2.4

Rotary 1956 2.4

Measuring & dispensing 905 3.1

Domestic & other pumps 3998 3.0

Total All Pumps 22039 2.4

World Market by Pump Typecomplete pumps, inc. drivers, exc. parts



The Market for Complete Pumps in 63 Countries

The following pages show the market for complete pumps in each of 63

countries. Countries are grouped into world regions as follows:

Asia - Page III 5

West Europe - Page III 6

East Europe - Page III 7

Africa & Middle East - Page III 8

America - Page III 9

Pump Market in West Europe - (Complete Pumps. inc. Prime Movers, $m 2003 prices)


Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011% pa 2006-112006

Austria 131.5 133.4 135.3 136.9 138.8 140.8 1.4

Belgium 143.9 147.6 151.1 154.2 157.8 161.8 2.4

Denmark 97.0 99.8 102.5 105.1 108.0 111.1 2.8

Finland 90.6 91.8 93.0 93.9 95.1 96.4 1.2

France 855.0 877.6 899.4 918.8 941.6 966.5 2.5

Germany 1278.4 1308.8 1338.1 1364.3 1394.9 1428.1 2.2

Greece 66.8 69.0 71.0 72.7 74.8 77.2 2.9

Ireland 66.9 69.2 71.3 72.9 75.1 77.7 3.0

Italy 615.2 628.5 641.3 653.4 666.7 681.2 2.1

Netherlands 225.6 230.5 235.2 239.0 243.9 249.2 2.0

Norway 154.5 156.2 157.9 159.4 160.7 162.0 1.0

Portugal 39.9 41.4 42.9 44.2 45.7 47.4 3.5

Spain 379.8 391.2 402.0 411.6 423.0 435.7 2.8

Sweden 226.3 231.1 235.6 239.4 244.3 249.4 2.0

Switzerland 142.1 143.0 143.8 144.5 145.4 146.3 0.6

United Kingdom 727.9 743.0 757.3 770.6 786.0 802.3 2.0


Pump Market in East Europe - (Complete Pumps. inc. Prime Movers, $m 2003 prices)


Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011% pa 2006-112006

Bulgaria 21.0 22.8 24.6 26.0 28.1 30.2 7.5

Czech Rep. 35.9 38.3 40.5 42.4 45.0 48.0 6.0

Hungary 62.9 66.4 69.8 73.0 76.9 81.4 5.3

Poland 198.0 208.0 218.0 227.2 238.2 250.5 4.8

Romania 88.8 95.8 102.2 108.5 116.3 125.0 7.1

Russia 389.1 416.2 446.5 476.1 505.4 534.1 6.5


Pump Market in Africa & Middle East - (Complete Pumps. inc. Prime Movers, $m 2003 prices)


Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011% pa 2006-112006

Algeria 88.6 92.1 96.0 99.6 103.3 107.2 3.9

Bahrein 20.1 21.6 23.0 24.4 25.8 27.2 6.2

Egypt 76.9 79.3 81.5 83.6 86.0 88.8 2.9

Iran 213.1 229.9 249.1 267.4 285.4 304.2 7.4

Iraq 26.1 29.2 32.9 36.6 40.3 44.0 11.0

Israel 45.3 48.4 51.3 54.0 57.5 61.5 6.3

Jordan 24.9 26.3 27.7 29.0 30.3 31.6 4.9

Kuwait 66.0 70.2 75.8 81.4 87.0 92.7 7.0

Libya 52.4 56.0 59.6 63.2 66.8 70.4 6.1

Morocco 45.3 47.5 49.4 51.3 53.6 56.1 4.4

Nigeria 38.1 40.2 42.3 44.3 46.3 48.3 4.9

Oman 34.1 36.1 38.6 41.0 43.4 45.7 6.0

Qatar 82.6 84.6 86.7 88.7 90.6 92.4 2.3

South Africa 191.8 200.1 207.8 215.1 224.1 233.8 4.0

Saudi Arabia 228.7 246.1 265.8 285.4 304.8 324.3 7.2

Syria 21.6 22.4 23.2 24.0 24.8 25.9 3.7

Tunisia 23.7 25.2 26.6 28.0 29.6 31.4 5.8

Turkey 204.5 218.4 232.1 245.7 261.8 279.5 6.4

United Arab Emirates 190.5 205.4 222.4 238.6 254.8 271.1 7.3


Pump Market in Asia - (Complete Pumps. inc. Prime Movers, $m 2003 prices)


Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011% pa 2006-112006

Australia 407.1 430.2 452.6 474.7 500.9 529.4 5.4

China 2850.5 2606.0 2491.1 2249.2 2008.4 2248.1 -4.6

Hong Kong 77.5 79.6 81.6 83.5 85.6 87.9 2.6

India 603.2 653.9 703.6 751.4 812.1 880.3 7.9

Indonesia 78.2 84.6 90.8 96.7 104.2 112.6 7.6

Japan 2981.1 3035.4 3073.6 3095.1 3134.1 3191.1 1.4

Korea-South 463.2 477.3 488.8 497.4 510.9 526.4 2.6

Malaysia 54.5 58.7 62.7 66.7 71.6 77.3 7.2

New Zealand 44.2 43.8 43.3 42.7 42.3 41.9 -1.1

Pakistan 57.8 60.5 63.1 65.6 68.6 71.9 4.5

Philippines 35.3 37.0 38.6 40.1 41.9 43.9 4.5

Singapore 131.4 136.8 141.9 146.6 152.2 158.4 3.8

Sri Lanka 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 3.6

Taiwan 256.0 265.2 273.8 281.7 291.2 301.5 3.3

Thailand 171.5 184.2 196.3 207.6 222.2 238.4 6.8


Pump Market in America - (Complete Pumps. inc. Prime Movers, $m 2003 prices)


Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011% pa 2006-112006

Argentina 112.3 117.0 121.4 125.5 130.7 136.3 3.9

Brazil 564.7 591.6 617.7 641.6 671.0 703.0 4.5

Canada 521.0 536.4 550.6 562.5 576.5 591.7 2.6

Colombia 75.7 79.8 83.8 87.4 91.8 96.6 5.0

Mexico 694.3 728.7 766.0 802.8 838.8 873.7 4.7

United States 3991.5 4147.2 4259.2 4357.2 4474.8 4613.5 2.9

Venezuela 149.8 159.9 171.7 182.3 193.0 204.0 6.4




MACRO-ECONOMICS, GDP & INVESTMENT

Two of the most important assumptions affecting the forecasts are the growth

of world trade and oil prices. These are shown in charts on the next page.

World trade growth is expected to slow down over the next few years as a

result of high oil prices, but to move back to its trend growth rate in 2011.

However, this is dependent on the oil price falling from its present high level,

as shown in the chart at the foot of the next page.

The high oil price in 2006 is the result of several factors, notably:

war in Iraq and Afghanistan and associated terrorism

shortage of global refining capacity

high level of demand for oil in 2005

We expect that disruption to supplies caused by the Iraq conflict will lessen over

the next few years. The demand for oil will moderate as world trade growth

slows and the oil price will also be dampened by the coming on-stream of new

oil supplies and refining capacity. For all these reasons we expect that oil

prices will moderate and will not cause a recession in world trade.

The main threat to future macro-economic prospects is a crisis over the

development of nuclear facilities in Iran. At present it seems that the risks to

world trade and oil supplies, arising from intervention by the US in Iran, are

too great, and so Iran will be able to proceed with its objectives, at least over

the next few years.



World Trade GrowthWorld Trade Volume in Goods - Annual % Change

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Oil Prices - Brent Crude - $ barrel



Forecasts of GDP Growth

GDP forecasts are summarised in the table on the next page. World growth

is forecast at 2.9% p.a. 2006-2011, in line with last year's results. There are,

however, some significant differences from last year's report.

GDP growth in China is put at 3.3%, compared with 8% last year. This is

because the time profile of growth in China has been well above trend in the

last few years, the starting year 2006 being an all time peak. Detailed

consideration of China is given later.

Russia and the Middle East are expected to grow more rapidly than

estimated last year, the result of sustained high oil prices. The counterpart is

slower growth in Europe and North America

Results for each of the 63 countries are given in tables on the following

pages:

Asia - Page II 14

West Europe - Page II 15

East Europe - Page II 16

Africa & Middle East - Page II 17

America - Page II 18



Forecast Growth of World Trade in Manufactured GoodsPercent per year

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

World Trade Volume 7.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 6.2 6.6

Forecast GDP Growth Rates by World RegionPercent per year

2006%

2007%

2008%

2009%

2010%

2011%

cagr% 2011/2006

Germany 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5Other West Europe 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.3

Russia 6 5.8 6 5.6 5.3 5 5.5Other East Europe 4.8 4.8 4.4 4.1 4.6 4.8 4.5

Africa 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.5Middle East 5.8 6 6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7

China 9 8 7 -1 -5 8 3.3India 7.3 7 6.5 6 6.8 7 6.7Japan 2.8 2.2 2 1.8 2 2.2 2Pacific Rim 5.1 5.1 4.7 4.3 4.9 5.1 4.8Other Asia 3.2 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.8 4 3.7

USA/Canada 3.6 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.6Latin America 4.4 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5

World 3.6 3.2 3 2.4 2.5 3.2 2.9

GDP Growth Rates for West Europe - (Volume % p.a.)


Country PopulationMillions, 2000

GDP$/head 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Austria 8.3 30855 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.2

Belgium 10.4 28855 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.4

Denmark 5.5 37709 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.4

Finland 5.3 30886 3.4 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.8

France 60.0 29240 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.2

Germany 83.9 30067 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6

Greece 10.7 14439 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.6

Ireland 3.7 32837 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.2 4.7 5.0

Italy 58.8 22328 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3

Netherlands 16.0 29412 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.8

Norway 4.4 39772 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9

Portugal 10.1 12792 0.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5

Spain 40.2 17258 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.8 3.0

Sweden 9.1 32142 3.9 3.3 3.1 2.8 3.2 3.3

Switzerland 7.3 41013 2.4 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8

United Kingdom 60.3 25391 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.9


GDP Growth Rates for East Europe



GDP$/head 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Bulgaria 8.5 1482 5.6 5.8 5.4 5.0 5.6 5.8

Czech Republic 10.4 4980 5.7 4.7 4.4 4.0 4.5 4.7

Hungary 10.4 5961 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.8 4.2 4.4

Poland 39.6 4656 4.4 4.6 4.3 3.9 4.4 4.6

Romania 23.0 1265 5.2 5.6 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.6

Russian Federation 150.6 3200 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.6 5.3 5.0


GDP Growth Rates for Africa/Middle East - (Volume % p.a.)



GDP$/head 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Algeria 30.4 2102 4.9 5.0 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.4

Bahrain 0.6 24166 7.1 6.3 6.5 6.1 5.7 5.5

Egypt 64.0 1600 5.2 5.2 4.8 4.5 5.0 5.2

Iran (Islamic Republic 65.1 1692 5.3 5.0 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.4

Iraq 22.4 1620 7.0 15.0 15.6 14.4 13.6 13.1

Israel 6.0 19783 3.4 4.7 4.4 4.0 4.5 4.7

Jordan 4.1 1756 5.0 5.0 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.4

Kuwait 2.1 27809 6.2 4.7 4.9 4.5 4.3 4.1

Libyan Arab 5.5 3109 5.0 4.6 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.0

Morocco 28.4 1654 5.4 4.4 4.1 3.8 4.2 4.4

Nigeria 106.9 331 6.2 5.2 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.5

Oman 2.2 25727 6.2 6.0 6.2 5.8 5.4 5.2

Qatar 0.5 38000 7.1 5.3 5.5 5.1 4.8 4.6

South Africa 39.5 3625 4.3 4.1 3.8 3.5 4.0 4.1

Saudi Arabia 19.6 8545 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.2 5.8 5.6

Syrian Arab Republic 13.7 2284 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.5 3.6

Tunisia 8.8 3659 5.8 6.0 5.6 5.1 5.8 6.0

Turkey 65.0 3030 6.1 6.4 5.9 5.5 6.2 6.4

United Arab Emirates 2.5 21120 6.5 5.2 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.5


GDP Growth Rates for Asia - (Volume % p.a.)



GDP$/head 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Australia 18.9 28291 2.9 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.6 3.7

China 1257.5 1154 9.5 9.0 8.2 7.8 8.3 8.5

Hong Kong SAR of 6.7 25716 5.5 4.5 4.2 3.9 4.3 4.5

India 987.5 567 7.3 7.0 6.5 6.0 6.8 7.0

Indonesia 204.5 760 5.0 6.0 5.6 5.1 5.8 6.0

Japan 129.1 31757 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.2

Republic of Korea 47.0 10893 5.2 5.3 4.9 4.5 5.1 5.3

Malaysia 22.2 4274 5.5 5.8 5.4 5.0 5.6 5.8

New Zealand 3.8 19473 1.3 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.9

Pakistan 146.9 602 6.4 6.3 5.9 5.4 6.1 6.3

Philippines 75.0 1246 4.5 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.4 3.5

Singapore 3.1 39322 5.5 4.5 4.2 3.9 4.3 4.5

Sri Lanka 17.8 797 5.6 6.2 5.8 5.3 6.0 6.2

Taiwan 21.9 18557 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.7 4.1 4.3

Thailand 62.1 2299 5.0 5.4 5.0 4.6 5.2 5.4


GDP Growth Rates for America - (Volume % p.a.)



GDP$/head 2000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Argentina 36.3 10239 7.3 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.9 4.0

Brazil 163.2 5321 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.4 3.5

Canada 30.9 25744 3.1 3.3 3.1 2.8 3.0 3.1

Colombia 41.1 2265 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.9 4.0

Mexico 97.4 5771 4.1 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2

United States 273.9 39213 3.6 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.7

Venezuela 22.7 3467 6.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.6




Investment and the Pump Market

Sales of complete pumps (i.e. original equipment) are fundamentally

determined by investment in plant and equipment by pump-using industries.

For this reason we pay close attention to trends in investment and to the

sub-division of investment appropriate for monitoring the pump market.

Although GDP growth is the main influence on the growth of investment,

investment in pump-using industries does not necessarily move in proportion

to global investment. In the advanced industrial countries the investment in

pump-using industries tends to grow more slowly than investment as a whole

because the latter includes a high volume of rapidly growing investment in

information technology which has no pump content. In developing countries

the link between global investment and investment in pump-using industries

is usually closer than in the industrial countries because emphasis is on

infrastructure, which normally has a relatively high pump content.

The table on the next page summarises the growth of global investment by

world region. The relative growth of investment by world region follows the

pattern shown for GDP, but investment growth rates are generally higher

than the growth of GDP.



2006%

2007%

2008%

2009%

2010%

2011%

cagr% 2011/2006

Germany 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.8 3.4 2.7Other West Europe 4 3.2 3 2.8 3.4 4 3.3

Russia 9 8.7 9.1 8.3 7.7 7.1 8.2Other East Europe 7.3 7.5 6.9 6 7.1 7.5 7

Africa 7.4 7.1 6.6 6 6.5 6.8 6.6Middle East 10.3 9.8 9.8 9 9.2 9.2 9.4

China 10 8 7 -11 -12.5 6 -0.9India 11 10.5 9.5 8.5 10.1 10.5 9.8Japan 2.3 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.9 1.3 1Pacific Rim 5.7 5.9 5.1 4.4 5.5 6 5.4Other Asia 6.9 6.5 6 5.6 6.5 6.8 6.3

USA/Canada 5.5 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.7 3.1 2.8Latin America 6.6 5.8 5.7 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.5

World 5.5 4.3 3.9 1.6 2.2 4.3 3.3

Forecast Investment Growth Ratesby World Region

Volume, annual % change



World Investment Trends in Industrial and Other Countries

Investment in industrial countries is twice as high as investment in other

countries, despite accounting for only 18% of the population.

Investment growth rates in the industrial countries are only half the rate of

those of other countries. Definitions and relative sizes are summarised in

the tables below.

Industrial = USA, Canada, WestEurope, Japan, Singapore, Australia,New Zealand

Investment 2005 = $2,228 billion for 845 million population

Trend growth 2005-2011 = 3.3% cagr

Other = 42 other countries with thehighest GDP

Investment 2005 = $1,110 billion for 3,950 million population

Trend growth 2005-2011 = 6.3% cagr



Investment Trends by End Use Industry

So far we have been discussing trends in global investment. But the analysis

of the pump market requires that investment is sub-divided because pump

content, and the pump types required, depend on pump applications which

vary by end use industry.

Although we distinguish 18 end use industries, (including a sub-division of oil

and gas between onshore and offshore), for the purpose of a summary we

identify:

Oil, Gas, Refining

Chemicals

Power Generation

Water & Sewerage

General Industry

The first three groups cover pump requirements in energy-intensive high

technology applications and pump unit costs are usually higher than in the

two other groups. Water and sewerage is identified because of its very

specific applications. Although general industry has end uses which vary

widely in pump requirements, it is more dependent on the overall growth of

the economy than are the other four groups.



Oil, Gas, Refining

The table below summarises the key issues. A major point is that the trend

growth in demand for oil is 2% p.a, compared with 4% p.a. for gas and gas-

related end uses.

In the case of oil refining, we expect a substantial boost to investment over

the next five years.

Oil & Gas Growth Areas

deep sub-sea oil

non-conventional oil (Ngl/Gtl/Heavy oil)

LNG - rapid volume growth, but fall in capital costs

gas demand is growing faster than oil

Refining

Generally recognised that shortage of refining capacity is partly to blame for high oil prices

High refining margins to boost investment substantially in USA from 2005

Total to double refinery investment

Some Key Issues affecting Investment in Oil, Gas & Refining



World Oil Production and Investment

The chart on Page II 25 shows the forecast growth in oil production.

High oil prices have resulted in a continuous upgrade in investment forecasts

by oil companies. The table at the foot of Page II 25 shows a large increase in

investment in 2006 for most countries or companies. A year ago the forecasts

by the oil majors for investment in 2006 were much more conservative.

Their investment forecasts were based on a long term oil price of $30 per

barrel, but now most take the view that the long term oil price will be $40 a

barrel.

At $40 per barrel many investments in unconventional oil and gas, and oil

and gas substitutes become economic. This applies to oil shale, heavy oil,

gas-to-liquids and also to coal gasification and liquefaction. Large

investments in heavy oil and oil shale are underway in Canada and

Venezuela. Investment in gas-to-liquids is booming in the Middle East.

China is the leader in coal gasification and liquefaction projects.



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Ngl/Gtl/Heavy Oil 3.5 4.15 4.9 6.1 7.2 8.7 10.8

Conventional 58.8 52.4 59.4 61.1 66.8 71.8 78.3

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

World Oil Production - Million Barrels/Day

Some Recent Trends in Oil & Gas Capital Expenditure$ million, current prices

2003 2004 2005 2006

Russia 4074 5085 7505 9000

Brazil 6012 7441 9580 11500

Mexico 10118 10907 10800 13100

Venezuela 2082 3332 4500 5600

Exxonmobil* 11988 11715 14470 16351

Shell* 8129 8600 10800 15000

Total* 5996 7709 8776 11950

BP* 9658 9839 10100 11000

* net of acquisitions



Capital Investment in Oil, Gas, Refining$ billion at 2003 prices

Industrial countries compared with other countries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Oil, gas, refining-industrial

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Oil, gas, refining-other



World LNG Production

The reduced availability of oil, coupled with falling costs of LNG, have led

to a rapid growth of LNG production. Production is expected to double

2005-2010.

LNG investment involves production and export plants (traditionally in the

Middle East and Asia), regasification plants in receiving countries and LNG

tankers. New sources of LNG are being developed in Norway, Trinidad,

Russia and a number of other countries. Regasification plants are being built

in the USA, and West Europe in particular. Most of the LNG tankers are built

in South Korea or Japan.



1995 2002 2005 2010 2015

Liquefaction 330 230 220 200 190

Regasification 130 105 102 100 95

LNG Tankers 210 140 130 110 100

LNG Capital Costs$ per tonne of capacity

0

50

100

150

200

250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

World LNG Productionmillion tonnes



Oil Refining Investment$m 2003 prices

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

West europe East europe Africa/mid-east Asia America

Oil Refining Investment

The table below shows very weak levels of investment in the late 1990s,

following a collapse in the oil price. Investment in West Europe fell as

refineries closed, although in recent years environmental legislation did help

to support spending. The largest increases in investment are expected in Asia

and America.



Chemicals

Key issues affecting investment in the chemicals industry are shown in the

table below.

The most important factor is the difference between investment in the

advanced industrial countries, mainly concerned with plant revamps, and

investment in other countries, where new plants are being built. Investment

trends are shown in the charts on Page II 31.

The chart at the top of Page II 32 suggests that a peak will be reached for capital

investment in 2006, owing to the Chinese investment boom.

Industrial countries: recession in investment and re-structuring

recession ended in 2005 restructuring continues (e.g. BASF)

Other countries: rapid growth, particularly those with oil resources. Thisdepresses long term chemical investment in the industrial countries

High oil prices are boosting investment in coal-based chemicals by liquefactionand gasification - especially in countries, such as China, who have large depositsof low grade coal

Some Key Issues affecting Investment in Chemicals



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Chemicals-industrial

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Chemicals-other

Capital Investment in Chemicals$ billion at 2003 prices




0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 est.2006

est2007

Europe US Japan China Saudi Basic

Capital Investment in Chemicals by Major Companies based in some regions$ million, current prices



Power Generation

Some key issues affecting investment in power generation are shown in the

table below. Investment trends are shown on Page II 34.

A major feature is the recovery of investment in the advanced industrial

countries, particularly the USA, after several years of recession. But 50% of

new projects will be built in China over the next few years. Most coal-fired

plants are built in China and India, but the USA is expected to switch to coal

over the next five years owing to high gas prices.

Large subsidies are currently being given to wind power, which is at the

expense of investment in pump-using power plants. Investment in nuclear

power may recover in some countries, but not immediately.

Recovery from generalised recession from 2005

50% of new projects in China

Subsidies for wind power divert investment away from pumps

Resurgence of nuclear possible, but not immediate

High gas prices cause switch to coal in USA

Some Key Issues affecting Investment in Power Generation



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Power generation-industrial

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Power generation-other

Capital Investment in Power Generation$ billion at 2003 prices




Water & Sewerage

Charts on investment in industrial countries, compared with other countries,

are shown on Page II 36.

Industrial countries account for more than double the level of investment

achieved in other countries. But investment by the industrial countries as a

whole fell sharply in recent years owing to the unwinding of a massive

investment programme in Japan. Environment investment is a major feature

in the industrial countries.

Investment in the developing countries is largely dependent on international

aid. Owing to widespread corruption much of the money voted in the past for

water projects in developing countries was stolen, and this has led to

reductions in the aid budget. The ambitious objectives for the UN

Millennium Water and Sanitation Programme are unlikely to be achieved.



Capital Investment in Water & Sewerage$ billion at 2003 prices


72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Water & sewerage

Water & Sewerage - Industrial

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Water & sewerage

Water & Sewerage - Other



General Industry

Market size is mainly dependent on the level of GDP, rather than the

availability of natural resources. This is why there is a larger differential in

market size between industrial and other countries than most other sectors.

Charts on Page II 38 show that market size in industrial countries is twice the

level of other countries.

The market is much more stable than that for oil & gas, chemicals and power.

This even applies to pulp and paper in the industrial countries, since paper

demand is closely related to the level of GDP.



Capital Investment in General Industry$ billion at 2003 prices


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

General industry-industrial

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

General industry-other



Investment Summary by End Use Industry

As already mentioned, the main factor determining the growth of the world

pump market is the level of investment by pump-using industries. EIF have

developed a database over the last decade on annual investment in plant and

equipment by end use industry in every major country in the world. This

database is a key input into estimates of pump market size and growth

potential. It is allied with a database covering 4,500 new projects and a

database on imports of pumps to provide a coherent analysis of world pump

markets. An outline of methodology is given in the Appendix.

Pages II 40 and II 41 show the relative size of world investment in plant and

equipment by region and end use industry. In this context world means the

total for the 63 countries identified in this report. The Appendix shows the

world breakdown by region for each individual end use and also the

estimated pump content of investment by end use industry.



2003-2005 2006-2008 2009-11

West European Total 1116.7 1197.1 1271.5

East European Total 88.6 100.3 118.3- Russia 28 31.7 39.3- Other Eastern Europe 60.6 68.6 79

Africa & Middle East Total 233.5 263.7 309- Middle East 146.4 166.9 199.7- Africa 87.1 96.8 109.4

Australasia & Far East Total 1426 1607.6 1618- China 398.6 478.8 389.4- Japan 657.9 711.6 741.6- India 65.2 87 115.7- Pacific Rim 224.9 241 268.9- Other Asia 79.7 89.1 102.5

North & South America Total 1100.8 1253.1 1381.2- USA & Canada 862.2 970 1061.1- Latin America 238.5 283.1 320.1

World Total 3965.8 4421.7 4698.1

Capital Investment by World Region$ billion at 2003 prices

Annual averages for successive three-year periods

Source: EIF estimates. See Appendix for detail by end use industry



Capital Investment in Plant and Equipment by End UseAnnual averages in $ billions at 2003 Prices

ENDUSE 2003-2005 2006-2008 2009-11

Oil & Gas 99.2 122.6 137.6

Oil Refining 26.7 34.2 38.7

Basic Chemicals 69 81.2 90.2

Other Chemicals 34.3 40.9 44.8

Food** 47 54.6 56.6

Drink** 16 17.5 18.2

Pharmaceuticals** 18.7 21.1 22.2

Power Generation 123 146.2 163.9

Metal Manufacture** 69.7 81.2 81

Marine Production/Repair** 7 8.1 9.3

Mineral Mining/Processing** 12.6 15.1 16.3

Pulp & Paper** 29.9 36.6 40

Water & Sewerage 124.9 128.9 134.9

Non-Residential Construction+ ** 582.8 631.9 665.3

Construction Output+ ** 2061.9 2296.8 2414.3

Other Industry** 106.4 115.1 121

Domestic Dwellings+ ** 536.8 589.7 644

World Total 3965.8 4421.7 4698.1

+ Value of construction put in place** included in 'General Industry'

Source: EIF estimates. See Appendix for detail by world area



Pump Markets in the World's largest Countries/Regions

In this section we consider developments in the world's largest countries by

population and land area, which are summarised in the table at the top of the

next page.

Countries in West Europe who are linked to the Euro will continue to be

subject to slow growth as a result of over-valuation of the Euro relative to the

$ and Yen.

In the USA the recent weakening of the dollar will boost competitiveness,

support the growth of the economy, boost exports and reduce imports (with

particular benefits to the chemical industry).

Developments in Russia are highly dependent on the oil and gas sector.

Domestic pump market growth in China is expected to slow down, but China

will continue to become increasingly important as a world supplier of

pumps. The growth of the Indian pump market has improved markedly in

recent years, although market size lags well behind China.



West Europe the strength of Euro will continue to hold back growth in countries linkedto the Euro

USA devaluation of $ will boost export competitiveness

Russia market growth depends on oil and gas sector

China the phenomenal domestic growth in last four years expected to slow, butChina is becoming a major force in world pump export markets

India definite acceleration of GDP growth in recent years will lead to fastermarket growth, but market size much smaller than in China

Some Key Issues affecting the Largest Countries/Regions

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Oil, gas, refining Chemicals Power generation General industry Water resources

Complete Pump Market Trends for West Europe - $ million 2003 prices



Complete Pump Market Trends for USA - $m 2003 prices

Complete Pump Market Trends for Russia - $m 2003 prices

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

General industry Water resources Power generation Chemicals Oil, gas, refining

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011




China

In this year's report we have paid special attention to China, both as a market

and as a pump supplier. Historical data, for the period 1995-2005, has been

revised, both with regard to capital investment by end use and the pump

content of investment. Particular consideration has also been given to the

likely shape of the investment cycle, which has influenced the forecasts.

The chart below summaries the results. The pump market grew at an

incredible rate 2002-2005, but is expected to peak in 2006. Investment will

remain strong through the Olympic Games in 2008, but will be in decline

until a recovery in 2011.

Complete Pump Market Trends for China - $m 2003pr.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011




Complete Pump Market Trends for India - $m 2003 prices

Pump Market in India

The Indian pump market is expected to grow by almost 8% p.a. but by 2011

will remain only one-third of the size of China. Although India has some

progressive companies, particularly in the oil, gas and refining sectors, there

is generally a lack of the dynamism so prevalent in China. Bureaucracy

continues to be a major handicap to development, despite attempts to reform

the system in recent years. Nevertheless, fast growth can be expected to

transform efficiency, particularly as greater Western involvement is

probable.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011




Pump Export Summary

The detailed tables in Volume II identify imports of pumps into 63 countries

supplied by exports from the EU (15 countries), USA, Japan and China . The

table below summarises exports by supplier in 2005.

Pump SupplierComplete

pumpsPumpParts

TotalExports

EU (15 countries) 6284 3635 9919

USA 1243 702 1945

Japan 892 647 1539

China 813 361 1174

Total identified in detail 9232 5345 14577

World Pump Exports in 2005$ million at 2003 prices

Chinese exports grew by 30% per year 2002-2005, compared with zero

growth for the combined exports of the EU (15 countries), USA and Japan.

Chinese export growth is clearly at the expense of export growth by the

major industrial countries.

The next page explores changes in Chinese market share for exports of

complete pumps and pump parts.



China as a Supplier of Complete Pumps (see Page II 49)

In 2005 exports of complete pumps by China accounted for 8.8% of the

combined export by EU (15 countries), USA, Japan and China. In 2002 the

Chinese market share was only 2.9%. In the large pump markets, the

Chinese import market share in 2005 was above average in Indonesia (46%),

Japan (33%), UAE (32%), Thailand (20%), USA (17%), India (13%),

Australia (13%) and Iran (12%).

China as a Supplier of Pump Parts ( see Page II 50)

China accounted for 6.8% of imports of pump parts in 2005 (2.9% in 2002).

Above average import market shares were in Japan (44%), Indonesia (37%),

USA (22%) and Singapore (7%).

Significance of China as a Supplier

At present most of the exports by China are probably directly or indirectly

controlled by Western pump manufacturers, either through joint ventures or

as distributors. This can be expected to change in the future as more

independent Chinese pump manufacturers develop export markets. Even

today, however, the significance of China as a pump exporter is under-

represented in volume terms by the figures quoted above, which relate to

percent shares of $ values. This is because Chinese export prices are

probably only 50% of Western prices for similar products.



ALLSUPPLIERS

2005$ MILLION

2003 PRICES

CHINA2005

$ MILLION2003 PRICES

CHINA2002

PERCENTSHARE

CHINA2003

PERCENTSHARE

CHINA2004

PERCENTSHARE

CHINA2005

PERCENTSHARE

SRI LANKA 6.7 4.1 12.9 34 43.1 60.8INDONESIA 105.2 48.8 33.6 41.3 40.2 46.4PAKISTAN 25.4 11.6 9.9 26 36.9 45.8SYRIA 26.8 10.9 2.5 18.8 33.3 40.6NIGERIA 45.3 17.7 6.7 16.6 25.3 39.1JAPAN 167.4 55.6 19 27.4 36.3 33.2HONG KONG 85.7 28 20.5 24.7 28.2 32.7UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 196.9 63.6 9.3 17.6 28 32.3IRAQ 28.9 8.2 7.4 2.3 1.1 28.5PHILIPPINES 34.6 9 7.2 16.6 25 25.9MALAYSIA 51.4 12.3 9 17 16 23.9ARGENTINA 26.4 5.8 0.6 8 16.8 21.9THAILAND 143.7 28.9 7.8 7.9 11.6 20.1VENEZUELA 43.7 8.5 2.5 7.1 12.8 19.5UNITED STATES 807.9 140 6 8.3 12.5 17.3JORDAN 21.3 3.2 1.4 5.4 10.4 14.9INDIA 107.8 14.4 1.4 2.2 8.2 13.3AUSTRALIA 140.8 18.2 4.3 9.3 11.1 12.9SINGAPORE 118.8 14.5 2.8 4.6 8.5 12.2EGYPT 65.1 7.8 1.5 5.8 7.6 12IRAN 147.7 17 6.2 5.2 8.2 11.5SOUTH AFRICA 68.7 7.7 0.9 7.5 11 11.2ALGERIA 74 8.2 2.3 4.5 5.2 11.1COLOMBIA 22.5 2.4 2.6 7.6 5.8 10.8LIBYA 41.7 4.3 0.3 2.4 4.5 10.3MOROCCO 36.2 3.3 0.6 2.8 4.3 9.2ISRAEL 36.6 3.3 2.5 5.5 7.1 9WORLD (63 COUNTRY TOTAL) 9234.2 813.1 2.9 4.3 6.5 8.8TURKEY 159.1 12.7 1.5 3.2 7.3 8FINLAND 74.3 5.7 1 2.8 4.2 7.6NEW ZEALAND 24.2 1.8 2.5 4.9 6.7 7.5KOREA - SOUTH 259 19.1 1.2 3.1 4.9 7.4POLAND 155.1 10.7 2 2.2 3.5 6.9TAIWAN 174 11.4 1.4 5.5 9.1 6.6GREECE 69 4.5 1.5 2.8 3.7 6.5BRAZIL 58 3.6 0.5 1.4 3 6.3GERMANY 775.3 47.7 2.9 3.9 5 6.1MEXICO 145.6 8.7 1.5 2.7 3.5 6SAUDI ARABIA 160.5 8.6 1.1 1.8 4.4 5.4NETHERLANDS 248.1 13.5 0.7 2.6 3 5.4BELGIUM 154 8.2 2 3.1 5.1 5.3ITALY 382.9 18 0.7 1.2 2.5 4.7ROMANIA 66.2 2.7 0.1 0.3 2.8 4RUSSIA 292.7 11.3 0.7 0.9 1.9 3.9CANADA 482.8 16.7 1.5 2 2 3.5OMAN 25.5 0.9 0 0 1.5 3.4DENMARK 94.8 3.2 0.6 0.7 1.6 3.4PORTUGAL 69.9 2.3 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.2SPAIN 357.7 9.6 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.7HUNGARY 87.6 2.4 0.2 1.2 2.4 2.7TUNISIA 17.8 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 2.6AUSTRIA 136.6 3.5 0.2 0.6 1 2.6UNITED KINGDOM 315.3 7.9 0.9 0.9 2 2.5FRANCE 602.6 14.2 0.7 1 1.3 2.4BULGARIA 15.4 0.3 0 0 2.1 1.8KUWAIT 51.1 0.8 0.1 0.9 1.5 1.6IRELAND 59.1 1 0.1 0.4 0.2 1.6CZECH REPUBLIC 89 1.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4SWEDEN 147.3 1.5 0.2 0.5 1.3 1QATAR 62.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.9 1SWITZERLAND 123.3 0.8 0 0 0 0.7NORWAY 99.9 0.2 0 0 0.3 0.2

Imports of Complete Pumps, Ranked by China's share in 2005



ALLSUPPLIERS

2005$ MILLION

2003 PRICES

CHINA2005

$ MILLION2003 PRICES

CHINA2002

PERCENTSHARE

CHINA2003

PERCENTSHARE

CHINA2004

PERCENTSHARE

CHINA2005

PERCENTSHARE

JAPAN 115.1 50.6 21.9 26.4 34.8 43.9INDONESIA 26.3 9.8 22.8 29.6 25.3 37.3UNITED STATES 745.7 161.6 13.8 16 21.1 21.7PAKISTAN 10.3 2 24.2 12.7 12.8 19.1SRI LANKA 3.4 0.6 13.1 13.2 21.8 16.6HONG KONG 22.7 3.6 6.1 9.2 10.9 16.1RUSSIA 62 8.9 0.8 0.7 7.3 14.4TAIWAN 59.1 7.7 4.9 7.3 11.4 13.1PHILIPPINES 10.2 1.3 8.5 14.8 14.5 12.7DENMARK 55.5 7 9.7 11.6 13.7 12.7VENEZUELA 38.1 3.6 0.3 0.5 1.8 9.6SINGAPORE 105.8 7.7 3.6 5.1 9.5 7.3NIGERIA 15.1 1 0.7 1.5 3 6.9WORLD (63 COUNTRY TOTAL) 5345.7 361.6 3.3 4 5.7 6.8UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 53.9 3.6 2.6 4.3 8 6.8OMAN 9.4 0.6 0 0 0.6 6.3ARGENTINA 17.1 1.1 0.1 6.7 9 6.3ITALY 220.7 13.1 1.6 2.4 4.8 5.9KOREA - SOUTH 178.6 9.2 2.9 2.6 3 5.2AUSTRALIA 63 3.2 2.1 3.8 5.1 5.1NEW ZEALAND 6.9 0.3 1 2.7 3.5 4.9IRELAND 25.2 1.2 0.7 1.3 3.8 4.8MALAYSIA 30.6 1.4 3.1 4.2 6.3 4.5EGYPT 37 1.5 1 3.3 3.8 4.1SYRIA 10.2 0.4 1.4 1.1 3.7 4JORDAN 5.6 0.2 5.1 4.7 1.9 4NETHERLANDS 136.3 4.6 1.1 1.7 2.2 3.4SAUDI ARABIA 63.3 2.1 1 2 1.8 3.3GREECE 21.9 0.7 1.1 3.3 3.9 3.3FINLAND 33.6 1.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 3.3CANADA 350.6 11.5 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.3SWEDEN 68.4 2 2.2 1.4 1.3 2.9AUSTRIA 104.1 2.9 1.6 1.9 3 2.8ISRAEL 11.5 0.3 1.6 1.4 1.6 2.5IRAN 54.9 1.3 0.5 1.5 1.4 2.4MOROCCO 14.3 0.3 0.2 1 1.4 2.2UNITED KINGDOM 248.7 5.2 0.6 0.9 1.3 2.1TURKEY 94 2 1.3 1.3 2.2 2.1INDIA 89.7 1.9 0.2 0.2 0.7 2.1GERMANY 417.6 8.6 0.8 0.9 1.4 2.1THAILAND 66.3 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.9FRANCE 325.9 5.9 0.3 0.4 1.4 1.8TUNISIA 8.3 0.1 0 0.4 0.9 1.6COLOMBIA 14.3 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.8 1.5HUNGARY 68.1 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.4ALGERIA 42.1 0.6 0.7 0.9 2.3 1.4SOUTH AFRICA 45.8 0.6 1.8 2.1 4.4 1.3BRAZIL 76.3 1 1 0.9 1.9 1.3SPAIN 141.3 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.7 1.2BULGARIA 5.8 0.1 0.1 0 0 1.2BELGIUM 97.3 1.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.1LIBYA 21.8 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.7 1MEXICO 97.5 0.6 1.4 1 1.9 0.7POLAND 82.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6ROMANIA 25.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.5IRAQ 10.1 0 0.2 0 0 0.5SWITZERLAND 53.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2QATAR 23.1 0.1 0 0 0.3 0.2PORTUGAL 22.3 0 0.1 0 0.1 0.2KUWAIT 20 0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2CZECH REPUBLIC 154 0.3 0 0 0 0.2

Imports of Pump Parts, Ranked by China's share in 2005



Pump Exports by suppliers not identified in detail

For most of the developing countries we have used imports, measured by

exports from the EU, USA, Japan and China, as the best indicator of

historical trends in market size and growth and have made an allowance in

market size for other exporters and domestic production. This procedure is

satisfactory as long as other exporters are not significant, or, where they are

significant, they are not taking market share from our identified exporters.

The following pages show export destinations in the year 2004 or 2005 for

most of the exporters not identified in detail. Some of the countries for which

pump markets are not shown in this report are also identified, e.g.

Kazakhstan. We show exports by the following pump suppliers:

Europe Asia America

Switzerland South Korea Canada

Russia Taiwan Mexico

Poland Hong Kong Brazil

Norway India

Czech Republic

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Germany

Not identified

United States

France

Italy

Austria

United Kingdom

China

Spain

Sweden

Netherlands

Czech Republic

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Kazakhstan

Not identified

Ukraine

India

Uzbekistan

China

Azerbaijan

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Not identified

Germany

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Romania

Belgium

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Korea - South

Not identified

Japan

China

Australia

Germany

United Kingdom

Croatia

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Germany

France

Italy

United States

Austria

Poland

Japan

Sweden

United Kingdom

Belgium

Not identified

Slovakia

Switzerland Russia

Poland Norway

Czech Republic

Europe: Pump Exports by Destination - Selected countries in 2004 or 2005


$ Million in 2005 $ Million in 2005


$ Million in 2004

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Not identified

Japan

China

United States

Canada

India

United Kingdom

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Not identified

United States

Japan

China

Hong Kong

United Kingdom

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

China

United States

Not identified

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Not identified

Germany

United States

United Kingdom

United Arab Emirates

Iraq

France

Italy

Singapore

Korea - South Taiwan

Hong Kong India

Asia: Pump Exports by Destination - Selected countries in 2004 or 2005




Canada

Mexico

Brazil

America: Pump Exports by Destination - Selected countries in 2004 or 2005


$ Million in 2005

$ Million in 2005

$ Million in 2004

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

United States

Not identified

Taiwan

United Kingdom

Russia

Australia

Sudan

Cuba

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

United States

Not identified

Canada

Venezuela

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Germany

United States

Not identified

China

Argentina

United Kingdom

Mexico

Turkey

Singapore

India



Uncertainties Surrounding the Forecasts

There are many uncertainties surrounding the forecasts. The following notes

attempt to place these into perspective. There are four main issues:

a) Data problems affecting historical measurement of market size

b) Macro-economic issues

c) Issues affecting specific industries

d) Issues affecting particular countries

Data Problems

Analysis of the pump market depends to a large extent on the proper

measurement of trends and cycles of fixed investment by end use industry.

Detailed notes on our methodology are given in the Appendix. The main

difficulty we have is that historical investment data based on government

statistics (the most reliable source) is usually two years out of date, and is

also subject to large revisions. The last complete data relates to the year

2004. Figures on fixed investment by end use industry for the year 2005 are

our estimates, while for 2006 the figures are our forecasts. We bridge the gap

by detailed analysis of investment in major projects, but there are difficulties

here arising from the time-phasing of each project.



Macro-Economic Issues

The main uncertainty this year is the impact of the oil price on world trade.

We have taken relatively optimistic assumptions here.

An additional uncertainty is whether the war with Iraq and Afghanistan

and prolonged terrorist activity has a significant impact on the world

economy.

Issues Affecting Specific Industries

The high oil price is expected to boost investment in both upstream and

downstream oil and gas activities.

The recession in the chemical and power generation industries is now

subject to less uncertainty since recovery is underway. The high oil price,

which affects feedstock prices, is now less of a problem for the chemicals

industry since prices can be raised.



Issues Affecting Particular Countries

China

The future annual time path of the Chinese pump market is one of the most

uncertain features of the forecast. In last year's report market growth was

shown to be stable, averaging 7.5% per year. But new data on investment in

China shows the extraordinary investment boom 2002-2005, which clearly

cannot be sustained. The pump market is expected to peak in 2006 and to

decline through 2007-2010 before growing again in 2011.

Japan

Prospects for pump market growth in Japan are still subject to considerable

uncertainty because macro-economic prospects are difficult to predict. In

this instance, however, a high proportion of pump demand is for

replacement purposes and so macro-economic developments have a less

critical impact on the pump market. Pump demand fell consistently 2000-

2004, but a recovery was believed to be underway in 2005.

Japanese market size, as measured by official government statistics, appears

larger, relative to the USA, than might be expected on the basis of

population. This issue is explored on the next page.



USA Japan

Production 3487 3653

less Export 957 740

plus Import 879 470

plus prime movers excluded 450 0

Total Market 3859 3383

of which:

Water & Sewerage 583 1157

Complete Pump Market Size: USA & Japan Compared, inc. prime movers

Year 2003, $ million

Pump Market Size: USA and Japan Compared

Measurement of pump market size between countries is affected by

definitions. One major difference is whether or not prime movers are

included, but the inclusion or exclusion of pump auxiliaries can also make a

significant difference.

Japanese pump market size relative to the USA, given the difference in

population, appears to be higher than expected on the basis of government

statistics. The table below shows the market for complete pumps in both

countries.

One reason for the large Japanese market size is the massive investment in

water and sewerage, which is now unwinding after a decade of rapid

growth. We might expect Japanese market size to be around $2.8 billion

after investment in water and sewerage reaches US levels per head of

population.



Pump Production and Pump Market Size:

Euroump Member Countries and the USA

Pump market size in each country was determined by reference to pump

production, exports and imports, and also independent EIF estimates of the

market by end use industry. With the Europump data there are some

uncertainties regarding the definitions of pump production and trade; in

addition, the Europump market data does not distinguish parts from complete

pumps.

EIF estimates of the complete pump market are, in some instances,

significantly different from the figures (implied) for complete pumps in the

Europump Annual Report. One reason is that the Europump Market Report

data does not sub-divide exports and imports between complete pumps and

pump parts; also the definition of exports and imports, in many cases, is

not consistent with the definition of production, so the contribution of net

exports to market size is mis-stated. Another factor is the inconsistent

treatment of prime movers, which are included in production values for

some, but not all, countries.

Even allowing for all these measurement difficulties some unexplained

anomalies remain. The most notable concerns production and market size

for Italy. Italy has large production of 'other pumps', which may include

products not strictly conforming with our definition of the pump industry.

In addition, Italy is a major world supplier of 'white goods'; we have

excluded the pump component of these products from pump market size.



Country Pump Production * EIF estimate ofPump Market

Austria 186 107

Belgium 107 144

Czec Republic 29 25

Denmark 452 90

Finland 89 82

France 781 829

Germany 2,104 1,210

Italy 1,790 581

Netherlands 79 217

Russia 155 384

Spain 311 354

Sweden 373 171

Switzerland 133 135

UK 751 714

USA 3,836 3,859

Europump Member Countries and USA

Production of Complete Pumps and EIF estimates of Pump Market Size

$ millions in 2003

* based on original equipment in Europump Market Report 2005

The World Pump Market - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 1


III THE PUMP MARKET BY PRODUCT TYPE

Introduction

The pump market by product type is conventionally analysed by a technical

classification which distinguishes product groups, such as centrifugal,

reciprocating or rotary, and by sub-divisions within these groups. These are the

classifications provided by official government statistics and are the subject of

this section.

The technical classification, while useful and also relevant to production

economics, does not provide insight into the pump market by end use. This is

because a pump described with a technical classification can be used in end use

industries with markedly different economic prospects. For example,

submersible pumps are used mainly by the water and sewerage industry and in

construction dewatering, end uses which can have markedly different trends.

An alternative approach to pump market segmentation by product type is to

consider pump demand by application within each end use industry, which is

the subject of Section IV. This alternative approach has more bearing on pump

marketing than the technical classification. Within the pump industry the terms

'standard', 'engineered' and 'special purpose' pumps are commonly used, but

have no basis in official government statistics. Section IV shows how these

terms can be related to pump demand by end use industry.



Summary of the World Pump Market by World Region

and Product Type

The market forecasts provided in this report relate to complete pumps,

including prime movers, excluding parts. The valuation is at ex-factory cost,

so that costs of pump installation are excluded.

The chart on the next page summarises the forecasts by product type.

Centrifugal pumps are, of course, the largest pump type, followed by

measuring and dispensing. The reciprocating pump market is a little larger

than rotary.

The choice of pump type depends in the pump application, which in turn

depends on the end use industry, but most pump types are used in most end

use industries. Consequently, growth rates for the different pump types are

fairly similar at the broad level of aggregation shown in the chart. There are

trends involving some substitution between pump types in certain

applications and also within pump types in the same application. Examples

within centrifugal are submersible versus end suction pumps, and within

rotary peristaltic versus other rotary pumps. Technological change also

affects demand by pump type by changing pump applications: environmental

investment being a good example.



World Market for Complete Pumps by Product Type$ million 2003 prices

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Centrifugal Reciprocating Rotary Measuring/dispensing Domestic & other



The Market for Pump Parts

Pump were considered for the first time in last year's EIF World Pump

Market Report. We are still not including parts in the market forecasts

because factors governing the aftermarket are complex and forecasts require

quite different methods compared with forecasts for complete pumps.

This year's report includes, for the first time, parts supplied by China, which

have been added to figures shown last year (sum of parts supplied by the EU,

USA and Japan).

The data on pump parts for the major industrial countries, in particular,

should be treated with caution. This is because largely complete pumps may

be imported, although they may be classified as parts.

The table on the next page shows imports of pump parts in 2005 ranked by

country within each world region, together with the compound average

annual percentage growth rate (CAGR) 2005/2002. The most notable positive

growth rates were for China, Thailand, Mexico and Argentina.

The World Market for Pumps - The Pump Market by Product - Page III 5

Imports of Pump Parts - Rankings by 63 Countries

$ million 2003 prices or CAGR % growth ratesCAGR2005/2002

CAGR2005/200220052005

$ Million $ MillionCOUNTRY COUNTRY

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EAST

Germany 418 -6.4 Kuwait 20 4.2

France 326 -3.1 Nigeria 15 -7.5

United Kingdom 249 Morocco 14 2.7

Italy 221 7.5 Israel 12 1.5

Spain 141 -5.5 Syrian Arab Republic 10 -1.6

Netherlands 136 -6.2 Iraq 10 -18.3

Austria 104 4.3 Oman 9 1.8

Belgium 97 0.6 Tunisia 8 -7.2

Sweden 68 1.5 Jordan 6 -16.7

Denmark 56 -1.3 Bahrain 5 -4.4

Switzerland 54 -0.4

Norway 45 11.9 ASIA

Finland 34 2.1

Ireland 25 21.1 China 256 25.4

Portugal 22 -0.6 Korea - South 179 7.8

Greece 22 -0.2 Japan 115 14.1

Singapore 106 5.9

EAST EUROPE India 90 13.9

Thailand 66 26.2

Czech Republic 154 8.4 Australia 63 -2.9

Poland 83 0.1 Taiwan 59 -5.2

Hungary 68 8.6 Malaysia 31 5.7

Russia 62 -1.5 Indonesia 26 0.6

Romania 26 31.1 Hong Kong 23 -17.6

Bulgaria 6 7.3 Philippines 10 5.4

Pakistan 10 -3.0

AFRICA/MID. EAST New Zealand 7 4.2

Sri Lanka 3 26.0

Turkey 94 14.8

Saudi Arabia 63 -5.5

Iran 55 -8.0 AMERICA

United Arab Emirates 54 -1.6

South Africa 46 1.6 United States 746 8.8

Algeria 42 4.1 Canada 351 10.2

Egypt 37 -0.4 Mexico 98 26.1

Qatar 23 22.1 Brazil 76 6.8

Libya 22 7.4 Venezuela 38 4.0

Argentina 17 21.2

Colombia 14 18.5



Centrifugal Pumps

The proportion of pumps used in the different end use industries largelydetermines the variation in demand for pumps of different types. This isbecause we do not believe that there is significant substitution betweendifferent pump types (at the level of detail presented in this report), within aparticular end use. There are, however, major variations in the types of pumpused in the different end use industries, and demand trends can differsignificantly between industries. Moreover, the relative importance ofdifferent industries varies markedly from country to country. Consequently,the extent of sub-division of demand between different end uses is animportant part of market analysis, and this is discussed in detail in Section IV.

The market for centrifugal pumps totals around $12bn. These pumps are usedby all industries; Page III 7 shows that oil, gas, chemicals and power togetheraccount for around 40% of the total.

The table on Page III 8 ranks market size by region for 63 countries. Thelargest markets are in the advanced industrial countries of West Europe, USA,Canada, Japan, plus China, India, South Korea, Mexico and Russia.


02000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


END USE

Centrifugal Pumps by End Use and World Region


$m 2003 Prices

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

West europe East europe Africa/mid.east Asia America

WORLD REGION $m 2003 Prices


Centrifugal Pump Market - Ranking by 63 Countries

$ million 2003 prices or CAGR % growth ratesCAGR2011/2006

CAGR2011/200620062006

$ Million $ MillionCOUNTRY COUNTRY

WEST EUROPE AFRICA/MID. EAST

Germany 757 2.2 Libya 21 6.0

France 492 2.5 Oman 20 6.0

Italy 389 2.1 Israel 20 6.3

United Kingdom 354 2.0 Iraq 20 10.8

Spain 179 2.8 Morocco 18 4.4

Sweden 127 2.0 Jordan 15 4.9

Netherlands 113 2.0 Bahrain 13 6.2

Norway 89 1.0 Nigeria 12 4.9

Belgium 76 2.4 Syrian Arab Republic 10 3.9

Austria 71 1.4 Tunisia 8 6.2

Switzerland 66 0.6

Denmark 56 2.7 ASIA

Finland 47 1.3

Ireland 39 3.1 Japan 1973 1.4

Greece 37 2.9 China 1736 -4.6

Portugal 18 3.6 India 342 7.8

Korea - South 282 2.6

EAST EUROPE Taiwan 166 3.3

Australia 151 5.4

Russia 277 6.5 Thailand 73 6.8

Poland 105 4.8 Singapore 64 3.8

Romania 36 7.1 Indonesia 37 7.6

Hungary 33 5.2 Hong Kong 26 2.5

Czech Republic 16 5.9 Malaysia 22 7.3

Bulgaria 10 7.5 Pakistan 21 4.2

Philippines 13 4.4

AFRICA/MID. EAST New Zealand

World Pump Market Report

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