World oil production by source in the Reference Scenario
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY © OECD/IEA - 2009 Mr. Christopher Segar Mr. Christopher Segar Directorate for Global Energy Dialogue Directorate for Global Energy Dialogue International Energy Agency International Energy Agency Bratislava, Bratislava, 6 July 2009 6 July 2009 International Energy Co International Energy Co- operation operation and Global Energy Security and Global Energy Security © OECD/IEA - 2009 World oil production by source World oil production by source in the Reference Scenario in the Reference Scenario Just to maintain the current level of production, gross additions of 45 mb/d, or four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia, will be needed from 2007 to 2030 20 mb/d 45 mb/d IEA，World Energy Outlook 2008
Transcript of World oil production by source in the Reference Scenario
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Mr. Christopher SegarMr. Christopher SegarDirectorate for Global Energy DialogueDirectorate for Global Energy Dialogue
International Energy AgencyInternational Energy Agency
Bratislava, Bratislava, 6 July 20096 July 2009
International Energy CoInternational Energy Co--operation operation and Global Energy Securityand Global Energy Security
© OECD/IEA - 2009
World oil production by source World oil production by source in the Reference Scenarioin the Reference Scenario
Just to maintain the current level of production, gross additions of 45 mb/d, or four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia, will be needed from 2007 to 2030
20 mb/d
45 mb/d
IEA，World Energy Outlook 2008
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Oil export flows from the Middle East and major strategic maritime channels
Source: WEO 2008, Reference Scenario
Total IEA Initial ResponseTotal IEA Initial Response
by measure by measure
1,972 kbd1,972 kbd
58 kbd58 kbd 70 kbd70 kbd
Stockdraw Demand Restraint Increased Crude Production
Total IEA Stock ReleaseTotal IEA Stock Release
by productby product
Middle Middle DistillatesDistillates
Motor Motor GasolineGasoline
1919%
Crude Crude Oil Other Oil Other IEA 15%IEA 15%
Crude Crude Oil USOil US50%50%
FuelFuel Oil2%2%
14%14%
IEA Response to Hurricane KatrinaIEA Response to Hurricane Katrina
2, 100 kbd2, 100 kbd
Hurricane Katrina©OECD/IEA, 2009
© OECD/IEA - 2009
-
12
24
36
48
60
1 2 3 4 5 6draw rate (mb/d)
dura
tion
(mon
ths)
2 Sep. 2005 decision, 2 mb/d
Theoretical decision, 4 mb/d
1.5 billion barrels of public stocks
IEA Public Stocks alone could replace an oil supply disruption of 4 mb/d for 1 year
Public Stocks: Public Stocks: A Clear Safety NetA Clear Safety Net
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Energy efficiency Energy efficiency is the most important is the most important ““fuelfuel””
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Exajou
les
Energy savings due to energyefficiency improvements
Oil and Oil Products
Natural Gas
Coal and Coal Products
Other energy sources
Electricity
58%
Hypothetical energy use without energy efficiency improvements
Actual Energy Use
Without energy efficiency improvements, total energy use would have been 58% higher in 2005 than it actually was
© OECD/IEA - 2009
.. and a major challenge .. and a major challenge for Eurasiafor Eurasia
Energy intensity, tonne of oil equivalent per USD 1000 of GDP (PPP) 1990‐2006
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Reductions in energyReductions in energy--related COrelated CO22in the 450 Policy Scenarioin the 450 Policy Scenario
20
25
30
35
40
45
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gigaton
nes CO
2
OECD+
Non‐OECD
Reference Scenario
450 Policy Scenario
CCS ‐ 21%
Renewables & biofuels ‐ 18%Nuclear ‐ 14%
Energy efficiency ‐ 47%
CCS ‐ 10%
Renewables & biofuels ‐ 25%Nuclear ‐ 6%
Energy efficiency ‐ 59%
35% (5.2 Gt reduction)
65% (9.5 Gt reduction)
Energy Efficiency 54%
CCS 14%
Nuclear 9%
Renewables & biofuels 23%
World total
OECD and non‐OECD countries must work towards reducing CO2 emissionsEnergy efficiency plays a key role for both OECD and non‐OECD countries
IEA, World Energy Outlook 2008
© OECD/IEA - 2009
CO2 savings potential
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Incremental investment Incremental investment in the lowin the low--carbon sectorcarbon sector
To achieve the 450 Policy Scenario, governments would need to increase funds committed to the low‐carbon energy sector 4‐fold relative to their recent stimulus package
0
100
200
300
400
500
2009 Annual average 2009‐2030
Billion
dollars (2
008)
Stimulus effect
450 Policy Scenario
44‐‐fold fold increaseincrease
© OECD/IEA - 2009
SummarySummaryInternational energy collaboration enhances energy security
Energy efficiency measures also help to ensure energy security
Energy efficiency and clean energy technologies can help mitigate climate change
The economic & financial crisis has sharply reduced global investment all the way down the energy supply chain, from production to end use
The crisis is an opportunity to place a Clean Energy New Deal at the heart of economic stimulus packages globally. Long‐term clean energy strategies must be at the heart of these packages.
