World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019
8
World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019 energy business insight e: [email protected] t: +44 (0)203 4799 505 www.douglas-westwood.com Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 21 World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Field Development Offshore Helicopter Drivers Chapter 3 : Drivers Drilling Production IRM Decommissioning CAPEX Phase CAPEX Phase OPEX Phase Importance of Robust Oil & Gas Prices Rigs are contracted to drill and complete offshore wells. These wells can be subdivided into exploration and development well types. Jackups, semisubs or drillships are typically contracted for drilling activities. Subsea infrastructures such as trees, manifolds, templates, umbilicals, risers and flowlines are installed using subsea installation vessels. Vessels involved include flex lays, reel lays, multi-support vessels and diving support vessels. Construction vessels are con- tracted for transportation and installation of offshore production platforms including fixed platforms and floating platforms. Helicopters are required at almost every stage of the oil & gas project lifecycle as defined below. Helicopters typically represent the most efficient means of transporting personnel and light goods to offshore assets. During the production phase, both fixed and floating platforms are required for ongoing produc- tion from each field. This stage of the offshore oil & gas lifecycle is the largest market for offshore helicopter operators as crew transfers are required over the course of a field’s life, often lasting decades. As fields begin to mature, subsea infrastructures will require repair and maintenance work. This will be carried out by multi-support vessels and dive support vessels. The decommissioning process includes removing, disposing of and/or re-using an offshore instal- lation when it’s no longer needed for the current use. Heavy lift vessels are typically contracted for decommissioning activities. • Prospects • Technologies • Markets © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 39 World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood The manufacture of helicopters for offshore services is dominated by four main players based in Europe and the US. Besides catering towards the offshore industry, these manufacturers are all highly diversified with significant revenue streams from the military and civilian sectors. Manufacturer Review Chapter 4 : Supply Chain Abu Dhabi Aviation ASESA Bristow Chevron USA Inc. Falcon Aviation Services Heliservicio Campeche SA de CV Petroleum Air Services PHI Inc. RLC Textron Aviation Finance Corporation Travira Air • Additional investments in rotorcraft for commer- cial and military customers. • Bell has commenced development of its construc- tion facility in Lafayette where the Bell 505 will be assembled. Operations are due to begin in 2016. • Addition of Bell 525 into market. • Bell Helicopter continues to expand its global footprint with agreements in Russia, UK, China and Switzerland. • Bell Aircraft Corporation was founded in 1935 and invented first commercialized tilt rotor aircraft. • 100% owned by Textron • 2014 Revenue: $4.2bn • Backlog: $5.5bn Bell 412 Bell 407 Bell 429 Bell Helicopter Facilities: Amarillo, USA Fort Worth, USA Patuxent River, USA Mirabel, Canada CITIC Offshore Helicopter Corp. ERA Group Inc. Era Helicopters LLC Milestone Aviation Group Ltd NHV Parilease Pawan Hans Helicopters Transportes Aereos Pegaso SA de CV UTair Waypoint Leasing • Airbus Helicopters have indicated upgrade plans for facilities in their American plants and assembly/ test sites for AS250 helicopters. • In addition to the rebranding of Eurocopter, Airbus Helicopters has renamed its product lines, changing the “EC” prefix to “H” – this change has been reflected throughout the publication. • Formed in 1992 with the merger between Aeros- patiale-Matra and DaimlerChrysler Aerospace • 100% owned by Airbus Group • 2014 Revenue: $8.7bn • Backlog: $17bn AS350 AS355 AS365 H135 H155 H175 and H225 Airbus Helicopters Facilities: Marignane, France La Courneuve, France Doaworth, Germany Ottobrunn, Germany Kassel, Germany Albacete, Spain © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 27 World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Offshore O&G Passenger Transportation Demand Chapter 3 : Drivers North America 12% 22% 13% 20% 8% 3% 13% Western Europe South-East Asia Australasia Middle East Africa Latin America • Growth– A mature market, North America will see growth of 3.5%. • Customers– Fragmented market with a mix of IOCs and independents. • Growth– Being a mature market West- ern Europe will see demand plateau with a CAGR of 1.5%. • Customers– Fragmented market with a mix of IOCs and independents. • Growth– DW expects a CAGR of 2.7%. Majority of demand will stem from India and China. • Customers– Customers in this region are mainly made up of NOCs. • Growth– DW expects demand for helicopters to grow by a CAGR of 5.1%, driven by the region’s pre-salt develop- ments. • Customers– Petrobras and PEMEX ac- count for the majority of demand. • Growth– Strong demand growth (7.4% CAGR) over 2015-20 driven by a large number of new projects being developed. • Customers– Dominated by large IOCS such as Chevron and Total. • Growth– A mature market which will increase at 3.9% CAGR. Note, demand will face strong. • Customers– NOCs include Saudi Ara- mco, NIOC and Adma Opco. • Growth– 2.7% CAGR expected, driven by key offshore markets including Malaysia and Indonesia. • Customers– NOCs dominate the region, prominent IOCs such as Shell and Chevron present. • Growth–Expected to see some of the highest growth at CAGR 10%, driven by large gas projects. • Customers– Mainly IOCs with a few large independents such as Woodside and Apache. 7% Rest of Asia Key % represent proportion of global demand 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 33 World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Helicopter Fleet – Positioning Chapter 4 : Supply Chain Maximum Take-off Weight (MTOW) Passengers LIGHT MEDIUM LARGE High 27,000lbs 19 Passengers Small 2,200lbs 4 Passengers The most critical factor when E&P companies are choosing helicopters is Maximum Take-off Weight (MTOW) and passenger (pax) capacity. Other factors are safety systems (Sikorsky automated landing), fuel efficiency, range, unit maintenance cost per flight hour and maintenance manpower requirements per flight hour. For the AW189, the EASA certified the model in February 2014, with de- liveries commencing shortly thereafter. Customers scheduled for deliveries include Bristow Helicopters Ltd. The Airbus H175 model was also certified by the EASA in 2014, with the first two H175s handed over to Belgian operator Noordzee Helicopters Vlaanderen (NHV). With recent accidents, safety has become a pivotal criteria for every helicopter provider for operational success. The UK Civil Aviation Author- ity (CAA) has also announced a series of measures to increase the safety of offshore helicopter transportation. These measures are a result of a widespread evaluation of the offshore helicopter operations undertaken in conjunction with the Norwegian CAA and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). Next Generation Medium BO 105 Bell 206B Bell 206L Bell 429 H135 H 225 M18 S92 AS 332 S61 AW 189 Bell 525 H 175 AS 365 S76 H155 Bell 412 AW 139 AS 350 AW109 Within each weight category, there are a number of competing helicopter models. Each of these models provides various capabilities and therefore a varying fit-for-purpose suitability for certain aspects of offshore O&G work. The diagram below maps the major models used in the offshore industry by size, passenger capacity and maximum take-off weight (MTOW). © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 51 World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Australasia: Supply & Demand Outlook Chapter 5 : Regional Market Analysis Forecast Australasian supply is well positioned to meet demand with some opportunities existing in the medium market as the supply surplus is reduced in the forecast. 2015-2019 Demand CAGR 3.2% Medium 8.5% Large 2015-2019 Demand Segmentation 55% Medium 45% Large Medium Helicopters – Demand for medium- type helicopters will continue to increase over the next five years at a CAGR of 3.2%. This increase, combined with the retirement of non-competitive helicopters, will satisfy supply over the forecast period as the surplus in supply reduces to 29% from the current 48%. Large Helicopters– Demand for large heli- copters is expected to increase at a greater rate compared to medium helicopters with a predicted CAGR of 8.5%. It is expected that in 2019 demand for large helicopters will be met by available large helicopters, with an oversupply into the forecast period. This is partly due to a slowdown in explora- tion and development drilling and project delays. Despite the majority of demand being for medium-type helicopters, the requirements for large helicopters are increasing rapidly due to their increased range and carrying capacity, the market is under-supplied at the end of the forecast period. Australasia is serviced by a less fragmented range of helicopter providers in comparison to the nearby South-East Asia market with Bristow and CHC being the most important players. Medium 55% Large 45% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Units Supply Demand 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Units Supply Demand Figure 44: Australasia Medium Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019 Figure 45: Australasia Large Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019 Figure 46: Australasia Demand Segmentation 2015-2019 * Small helicopters are excluded because they are seldom used in the offshore oil & gas industry. Table 12: Top Helicopter Types Available in the Australasian Market © 2015 Douglas-Westwood 48 World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019 By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood Asia: Expenditure Forecast Chapter 5 : Regional Market Analysis Figure 35: Asia Helicopter Expenditure 2010-2019 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Expenditure ($m) Spending on offshore helicopter services in Asia is expected to increase from $0.7bn in 2015 to $0.8bn in 2019 at a 4% CAGR. The majority of the spending is related to the use of medium-type helicopters (81% of total expenditure), although there will also be rising demand for large helicopters. 2015-2019 Market Size ($bn) $0.04 Small $3.07 Medium $0.69 Large 2015-2019 Market CAGR 6.9% Small 3.7% Medium 3.4% Large Asia’s helicopter expenditure is expected to total $3.8bn over the 2015-2019 period at a CAGR of 4%. With the increase in drilling activities in the region over the next five years, more crew personnel will be required to be trans- ported offshore to new field infrastructure, driving growth in the market. The majority of the Asian market is expected to be serviced by medium-type helicopters, accounting for 81% of forecast expenditure with large helicopters at 18%. Medium-type helicopters are fit-for-purpose for the majority of contracts in the Asia re- gion and continued high growth is expected in the segment. Although medium-type helicopters are predominantly required, there are also opportunities for large helicopters in fields such as PTTEP’s Bongkot South field and Premier Oil’s Gajah Baru field. These fields are further from shore and are large in size, requiring additional crew. An increase of 3.4% CAGR for large helicopters is expected over the next five years. The majority of customers within this region comprise of NOCs including Petronas, PT- TEP, Pertamina, and CNOOC. There is also a substantial number of IOCs such as Shell, Total, Chevron and ExxonMobil. Table 9: Asia Expenditure by Helicopter Type 2014-2019 Small 1% Medium 81% Large 18% IOC 40% NOC 58% Ind. 2% Figure 36: Asia Expenditure Based on Helicopter Type 2015-2019 Figure 37: Asia Demand by Operator Type 2015-2019 Total 676 706 713 766 791 816 Resilient helicopter services market to reach new heights Despite turmoil this year in the oil & gas indus- try, Douglas-Westwood (DW) forecasts $25 billion in expenditure on offshore helicopter services between 2015 and 2019. The installed base of manned production infrastructure continues to increase, as does the fleet of offshore rigs and specialist installation and support vessels. This drives the demand for helicopter services, with our forecast spend for the next five years increasing more than 25%, compared to the preceding five-year period. However, the significant cuts in capital expendi- ture that we have seen in 2015 will impact the helicopter business with lower than previously expected levels of drilling and seismic activity. We also expect to see a delay in the sanction- ing of some new offshore production infra- structure. Whilst expectations for the coming three years are lower than previously anticipated in our 2014 report (by between -4% and -7% year- on-year) the overall picture remains a long- term growth story with the offshore helicopter industry expected to be relatively resilient as the majority of demand will arise from ongoing production phase support. The coming years will be an important time for the industry as a new generation of medium- class helicopters, such as the H175 and AW189, are introduced. These have been de- veloped to provide higher crew capacity, power and range for a number of industries. These models are highly efficient with new advanced safety systems and are, therefore, expected to perform well in the offshore arena. This is DW’s 2nd edition of the World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast and covers all key commercial themes relevant to players across the value chain: • Key drivers – identification and discussion of key underlying drivers and their influence on the offshore helicopter services market. • Supply chain analysis – of contracting pro- cesses, helicopter fleet developments, new helicopter models and helicopter procure- ment trends. • Competitive landscape – covering both helicopter operators and helicopter OEMs. • Regional analysis – summary of growth prospects, key buyers, competitive intensity and typical contracting approach. • Market forecasts – analysis of expenditure, supply and demand development by region (Africa, Asia, Australasia, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe) from 2015 to 2019.
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Transcript of World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019
World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019energy business insight
e: [email protected] t: +44 (0)203 4799 505
www.douglas-westwood.com
Aberdeen | Faversham | Houston | London | Singapore
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood
21
World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019
By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Field Development
Offshore Helicopter Drivers
Chapter 3 : Drivers
Drilling
Production
IRM
Decommissioning
CAPEX Phase
CAPEX Phase
OPEX Phase
Importance of Robust Oil & Gas Prices
Rigs are contracted to drill and
complete offshore wells. These
wells can be subdivided into exploration and development well
types.
Jackups, semisubs or drillships are
typically contracted for drilling
activities.
OFFSHORE RIGS
Subsea infrastructures such as trees, manifolds, templates,
umbilicals, risers and flowlines are
installed using subsea installation
vessels.
Vessels involved include flex lays,
reel lays, multi-support vessels
and diving support vessels.
SUBSEA VESSELS
Construction vessels are con-tracted for transportation and
installation of offshore production
platforms including fixed platforms
and floating platforms.
PLATFORM INSTALLATIONS
Helicopters are required at almost every stage of the oil & gas project lifecycle as defined below. Helicopters typically represent the most efficient means of transporting personnel and light goods to offshore assets.
During the production phase, both fixed and floating platforms
are required for ongoing produc-
tion from each field.This stage of the offshore oil &
gas lifecycle is the largest market
for offshore helicopter operators
as crew transfers are required
over the course of a field’s life,
often lasting decades.
OFFSHORE PLATFORMS
As fields begin to mature, subsea
infrastructures will require repair
and maintenance work. This will
be carried out by multi-support
vessels and dive support vessels.
MAINTENANCE
The decommissioning process
includes removing, disposing of
and/or re-using an offshore instal-
lation when it’s no longer needed
for the current use.Heavy lift vessels are typically
contracted for decommissioning
activities.
DECOMMISSIONING
• Prospects• Technologies• Markets
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood
39
World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019
By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
The manufacture of helicopters for offshore services is dominated by four main players based in Europe and the US. Besides catering towards the offshore industry, these manufacturers are all highly diversified with significant revenue
streams from the military and civilian sectors.
Manufacturer ReviewChapter 4 : Supply Chain
Abu Dhabi Aviation
ASESA
Bristow
Chevron USA Inc.
Falcon Aviation Services
Heliservicio Campeche SA de CV
Petroleum Air Services
PHI Inc.
RLC
Textron Aviation Finance Corporation
Travira Air
Top Customers (2009-15 ytd) • Additional investments in rotorcraft for commer-
cial and military customers.
• Bell has commenced development of its construc-
tion facility in Lafayette where the Bell 505 will be
assembled. Operations are due to begin in 2016.
• Addition of Bell 525 into market.
Future Capacity Plans
• Bell Helicopter continues to expand its global
footprint with agreements in Russia, UK, China and
Switzerland.
Notes
• Bell Aircraft Corporation was founded in 1935 and
invented first commercialized tilt ro
tor aircraft.
• 100% owned by Textron
• 2014 Revenue: $4.2bn
• Backlog: $5.5bn
Overview
Global Manufacturing Bases
Bell 412
Bell 407
Bell 429
Recent Deliveries
Bell HelicopterFacilities:
Amarillo, USA
Fort Worth, USA
Patuxent River, USA
Mirabel, Canada
CITIC Offshore Helicopter Corp.
ERA Group Inc.
Era Helicopters LLC
Milestone Aviation Group Ltd
NHV
Parilease
Pawan Hans Helicopters
Transportes Aereos Pegaso SA de CV
UTair
Waypoint Leasing
Top Customers (2009-15ytd) • Airbus Helicopters have indicated upgrade plans
for facilities in their American plants and assembly/
test sites for AS250 helicopters.
Future Capacity Plans
• In addition to the rebranding of Eurocopter, Airbus
Helicopters has renamed its product lines, changing
the “EC” prefix to “H” – this change has been
reflected throughout the publication.
Notes
• Formed in 1992 with the merger between Aeros-
patiale-Matra and DaimlerChrysler Aerospace
• 100% owned by Airbus Group
• 2014 Revenue: $8.7bn
• Backlog: $17bn
Overview
Global Manufacturing Bases
AS350
AS355
AS365
H135
H155
H175 and H225
Recent Deliveries
Airbus
Helicopters
Facilities:
Marignane, France
La Courneuve, France
Doaworth, Germany
Ottobrunn, Germany
Kassel, Germany
Albacete, Spain
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood
27
World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019
By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Offshore O&G Passenger Transportation Demand
Chapter 3 : Drivers
31%
42%
27%
44%44%
12%
65%
26%
9%
43%40%
17%
16%
67%
17%
56%30%
14%
45%33%
22%
North America
12%
22%13%
20%
8%
3%
13%
Western Europe
South-East Asia
Australasia
Middle East
Africa
Latin America
North America
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
122104• Growth – A mature market, North
America will see growth of 3.5%.
• Customers – Fragmented market with a
mix of IOCs and independents.
Western Europe
050100150200250300350
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
21495• Growth – Being a mature market West-
ern Europe will see demand plateau with
a CAGR of 1.5%.• Customers – Fragmented market with a
mix of IOCs and independents.
Rest of Asia
050100150200250300350400
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
76
283• Growth – DW expects a CAGR of 2.7%.
Majority of demand will stem from India
and China.• Customers – Customers in this region
are mainly made up of NOCs.
Latin America
0
100
200
300
400
500
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
231156
• Growth – DW expects demand for
helicopters to grow by a CAGR of 5.1%,
driven by the region’s pre-salt develop-
ments.• Customers – Petrobras and PEMEX ac-
count for the majority of demand.Africa
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
108120• Growth – Strong demand growth (7.4%
CAGR) over 2015-20 driven by a large
number of new projects being developed.
• Customers – Dominated by large IOCS
such as Chevron and Total. Middle East
050100150200250300350
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
89
199• Growth – A mature market which will
increase at 3.9% CAGR. Note, demand
will face strong. • Customers – NOCs include Saudi Ara-
mco, NIOC and Adma Opco.
South East Asia
050100150200250300350400
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
133193
• Growth – 2.7% CAGR expected, driven
by key offshore markets including Malaysia
and Indonesia.• Customers – NOCs dominate the
region, prominent IOCs such as Shell and
Chevron present.
Australasia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
24
11• Growth –Expected to see some of the
highest growth at CAGR 10%, driven by
large gas projects.• Customers – Mainly IOCs with a few
large independents such as Woodside and
Apache.
54%24%
23%
7%
Rest of Asia
KeyProportion of heli-copter demand vs crew boat demand
Drilling Demand
Field Development
Life of Field Demand
% represent proportion of global demand
100100
100100
100100
100100
100100
100100
100100
100100
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood
33
World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019
By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Helicopter Fleet – PositioningChapter 4 : Supply Chain
Max
imum
Tak
e-off
Wei
ght
(MTO
W)
Passengers
LIGHT
MEDIUM
LARGE
High
27,000lbs
19 Passengers
Small
2,200lbs
4 Passengers
The most critical factor when E&P companies are choosing helicopters is
Maximum Take-off Weight (MTOW) and passenger (pax) capacity. Other
factors are safety systems (Sikorsky automated landing), fuel efficiency,
range, unit maintenance cost per flight hour and maintenance manpower
requirements per flight hour.
For the AW189, the EASA certified the model in February 2014, with de-
liveries commencing shortly thereafter. Customers scheduled for deliveries
include Bristow Helicopters Ltd. The Airbus H175 model was also certified
by the EASA in 2014, with the first two H175s handed over to Belgian
operator Noordzee Helicopters Vlaanderen (NHV).
With recent accidents, safety has become a pivotal criteria for every
helicopter provider for operational success. The UK Civil Aviation Author-
ity (CAA) has also announced a series of measures to increase the safety
of offshore helicopter transportation. These measures are a result of a
widespread evaluation of the offshore helicopter operations undertaken in
conjunction with the Norwegian CAA and the European Aviation Safety
Agency (EASA).
Next Generation
Medium
BO 105
Bell 206B
Bell 206L
Bell 429H135
H 225
M18
S92
AS 332
S61
AW 189Bell 525
H 175
AS 365
S76H155
Bell 412
AW 139
AS 350
AW109
Within each weight category, there are a number of competing helicopter models. Each of these models provides various capabilities and therefore a varying fit-for-purpose suitability for certain aspects of offshore O&G work. The
diagram below maps the major models used in the offshore industry by size, passenger capacity and maximum take-off weight (MTOW).
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood
51
World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019
By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Australasia: Supply & Demand Outlook
Chapter 5 : Regional Market Analysis
Forecast Australasian supply is well
positioned to meet demand with
some opportunities existing in the
medium market as the supply surplus
is reduced in the forecast.2015-2019 Demand CAGR3.2% Medium8.5% Large
2015-2019 Demand Segmentation
55% Medium45% Large
Medium Helicopters – Demand for medium-
type helicopters will continue to increase
over the next five years at a CAGR of 3.2%.
This increase, combined with the retirement
of non-competitive helicopters, will satisfy
supply over the forecast period as the
surplus in supply reduces to 29% from the
current 48%.
Large Helicopters – Demand for large heli-
copters is expected to increase at a greater
rate compared to medium helicopters with
a predicted CAGR of 8.5%. It is expected
that in 2019 demand for large helicopters
will be met by available large helicopters,
with an oversupply into the forecast period.
This is partly due to a slowdown in explora-
tion and development drilling and project
delays.
Despite the majority of demand being for
medium-type helicopters, the requirements
for large helicopters are increasing rapidly
due to their increased range and carrying
capacity, the market is under-supplied at the
end of the forecast period.
Australasia is serviced by a less fragmented
range of helicopter providers in comparison
to the nearby South-East Asia market with
Bristow and CHC being the most important
players.
Medium55%
Large45%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Uni
ts
SupplyDemand
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Uni
ts
SupplyDemand
Figure 44: Australasia Medium Helicopter Supply & Demand
Outlook 2010-2019
Figure 45: Australasia Large Helicopter Supply & Demand
Outlook 2010-2019 Figure 46: Australasia Demand Segmentation
2015-2019
* Small helicopters are excluded
because they are seldom used in the offshore oil & gas industry.
Table 12: Top Helicopter Types Available in the
Australasian Market
Manufacturer
Helicopter Type
Airbus
H225
Airbus
AS332 Super Puma
Sikorsky
S-76
Bell Helicopter
Bell 407
AgustaWestland
AW139
Airbus/Kawasaki
BK117
Sikorsky
S-92
Bell Helicopter
Bell 206
Bell Helicopter
Bell 212
Bell Helicopter
Bell 412
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 48World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Asia: Expenditure Forecast
Chapter 5 : Regional Market Analysis
Figure 35: Asia Helicopter Expenditure 2010-2019
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Expe
nditu
re (
$m)
Spending on offshore helicopter
services in Asia is expected to increase
from $0.7bn in 2015 to $0.8bn in 2019
at a 4% CAGR.
The majority of the spending is related
to the use of medium-type helicopters
(81% of total expenditure), although
there will also be rising demand for
large helicopters.
2015-2019 Market Size ($bn)
$0.04 Small
$3.07 Medium
$0.69 Large
2015-2019 Market CAGR
6.9% Small
3.7% Medium
3.4% Large
Asia’s helicopter expenditure is expected to
total $3.8bn over the 2015-2019 period at
a CAGR of 4%.
With the increase in drilling activities in the
region over the next five years, more crew
personnel will be required to be trans-
ported offshore to new field infrastructure,
driving growth in the market.
The majority of the Asian market is
expected to be serviced by medium-type
helicopters, accounting for 81% of forecast
expenditure with large helicopters at 18%.
Medium-type helicopters are fit-for-purpose
for the majority of contracts in the Asia re-
gion and continued high growth is expected
in the segment.
Although medium-type helicopters are
predominantly required, there are also
opportunities for large helicopters in fields
such as PTTEP’s Bongkot South field and
Premier Oil’s Gajah Baru field. These fields
are further from shore and are large in
size, requiring additional crew. An increase
of 3.4% CAGR for large helicopters is
expected over the next five years.
The majority of customers within this region
comprise of NOCs including Petronas, PT-
TEP, Pertamina, and CNOOC. There is also
a substantial number of IOCs such as Shell,
Total, Chevron and ExxonMobil.
Table 9: Asia Expenditure by Helicopter Type 2014-2019
Small1%
Medium81%
Large18% IOC
40%
NOC58%
Ind.2%
Figure 36: Asia Expenditure Based on Helicopter Type 2015-2019
Figure 37: Asia Demand by Operator Type 2015-2019
$ Million 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Small 6 6 7 7 8 8
Medium 547 569 576 622 643 659
Large 124 131 130 136 140 149
Total 676 706 713 766 791 816
Resilient helicopter services market to reach new heights
Despite turmoil this year in the oil & gas indus-try, Douglas-Westwood (DW) forecasts $25 billion in expenditure on offshore helicopter services between 2015 and 2019.
The installed base of manned production infrastructure continues to increase, as does the fleet of offshore rigs and specialist installation and support vessels. This drives the demand for helicopter services, with our forecast spend for the next five years increasing more than 25%, compared to the preceding five-year period.
However, the significant cuts in capital expendi-ture that we have seen in 2015 will impact the helicopter business with lower than previously expected levels of drilling and seismic activity. We also expect to see a delay in the sanction-ing of some new offshore production infra-structure.
Whilst expectations for the coming three years are lower than previously anticipated in our 2014 report (by between -4% and -7% year-on-year) the overall picture remains a long-term growth story with the offshore helicopter industry expected to be relatively resilient as the majority of demand will arise from ongoing production phase support.
The coming years will be an important time for the industry as a new generation of medium-class helicopters, such as the H175 and AW189, are introduced. These have been de-veloped to provide higher crew capacity, power and range for a number of industries. These models are highly efficient with new advanced safety systems and are, therefore, expected to perform well in the offshore arena.
This is DW’s 2nd edition of the World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast and covers all key commercial themes relevant to players across the value chain:
• Key drivers – identification and discussion of key underlying drivers and their influence on the offshore helicopter services market.
• Supply chain analysis – of contracting pro-cesses, helicopter fleet developments, new helicopter models and helicopter procure-ment trends.
• Competitive landscape – covering both helicopter operators and helicopter OEMs.
• Regional analysis – summary of growth prospects, key buyers, competitive intensity and typical contracting approach.
• Market forecasts – analysis of expenditure, supply and demand development by region (Africa, Asia, Australasia, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe) from 2015 to 2019.
World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019energy business insight
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Why purchase the World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast?
DW’s market forecasting is trusted by sector play-ers worldwide, with clients including the world’s top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield ser-vices companies and top-10 private equity firms.
DW has developed a proprietary model of offshore helicopter spend which is based upon inputs from our in-house project and drilling data, coupled with industry insight gained over nearly 25 years of industry consulting. This has included engagements across the globe for many of the largest helicopter owners, opera-tors and manufacturers. This collective insight is now available as a published research product.
• Unique and proprietary data – updated continually from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
• Methodology – the report uses research from DW’s in-house databases, as well as further primary research, which involved consultations with E&P companies, helicop-ter operators and helicopter OEMs to ob-tain the latest information on the offshore helicopters market.
• Market forecasts – comprehensive ex-amination, analysis and five-year coverage of expenditure levels, supply and demand from 2015 to 2019.
• Concise report layout – consistent with DW’s commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry back-ground and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read’ summaries of key points throughout.
• An essential report – for financial institu-tions, E&P companies, helicopter leasing companies, operators and OEMs, as well as agencies and organisations engaged in the offshore logistics supply chain. DW reports are expressly designed to help organisations to gain a better understanding of where and when to make investment decisions.
DW’s extensive offshore database and indus-try credentials in this area allow us to develop bespoke countryby-country analysis on the offshore helicopter services market. Please contact [email protected] for further details.
ISBN 978-1-910045-19-0
2015
World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters
Market Forecast
Prospects, Technologies, World Markets
2015-2019
© 2015 Douglas-Westwood 2World Offshore Oil & Gas Helicopters Market Forecast 2015-2019By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of Douglas-Westwood
Contents
Table of Contents
1 Summary and Conclusions ......................................7Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 8
Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 9
2 Macro Economic Outlook .................................... 10Population & GDP Growth Drive Energy Demand ............................................................. 11
Regional Offshore Production Outlook ................................................................................. 12
Oil – Supply & Demand ............................................................................................................. 13
Oil Price Volatility ....................................................................................................................... 14
Power Generation ...................................................................................................................... 15
Offshore Oil & Gas..................................................................................................................... 16
Oil Majors – End of Business as Usual? .................................................................................. 17
The Importance of Deepwater ................................................................................................ 18
Oil & Gas Challenges ................................................................................................................. 19
3 Drivers ...................................................................... 20Offshore Helicopter Drivers .................................................................................................... 21
Key Definitions ............................................................................................................................ 22
Offshore Wells Drilled............................................................................................................... 23
Offshore Asset Installations ...................................................................................................... 24
Offshore Fixed & Floating Platform Population .................................................................... 25
Offshore Maintenance, Modifications & Operations ........................................................... 26
Offshore O&G Passenger Transportation Demand ............................................................. 27
4 Supply Chain ............................................................ 28Helicopter Classification ........................................................................................................... 29
Contracting Process ................................................................................................................... 30
Tender Process ............................................................................................................................ 31
Renewals ....................................................................................................................................... 32
Helicopter Fleet – Positioning .................................................................................................. 33
Helicopter Operators – Market Positioning ......................................................................... 34
Overview of Offshore Passenger Transportation ................................................................. 35
Buying Power ............................................................................................................................... 36
Leasing Contracts ....................................................................................................................... 37
Global Helicopter Supply: Evolution of Size .......................................................................... 38
Manufacturer Review ................................................................................................................. 39
5 Regional Market Analysis ...................................... 41Methodology & Limitations ....................................................................................................... 42
Regional Market Characteristics .............................................................................................. 43
Helicopter Regional Characteristics ....................................................................................... 44
Regional Summary....................................................................................................................... 45
Africa: Expenditure Outlook .................................................................................................... 46
Africa: Supply & Demand Outlook .......................................................................................... 47
Asia: Expenditure Forecast ....................................................................................................... 48
Asia: Supply & Demand Outlook ............................................................................................. 49
Australasia: Expenditure Forecast ........................................................................................... 50
Australasia: Supply & Demand Outlook ................................................................................. 51
Eastern Europe & FSU: Expenditure Forecast ....................................................................... 52
Eastern Europe & FSU: Supply & Demand Outlook ............................................................ 53
Latin America: Expenditure Forecast ...................................................................................... 54
Latin America: Supply & Demand Outlook ........................................................................... 55
Middle East: Expenditure Forecast .......................................................................................... 56
Middle East: Supply & Demand Outlook ................................................................................ 57
North America: Expenditure Forecast ................................................................................... 58
North America: Supply & Demand Outlook ......................................................................... 59
Western Europe: Expenditure Forecast ................................................................................. 60
Western Europe: Supply & Demand Outlook ....................................................................... 61
6 Appendix .................................................................. 62Data and Text Conventions ...................................................................................................... 63
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Contents
Figures
Figure 1: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2035 ............................................... 11Figure 2: Historic Primary Energy Demand by Region, 1965-2013 ................................................... 11Figure 3: Deepwater and Shallow Water Production by Region, 2015-2020 .............................. 12Figure 4: Oil Price & Demand 1990-2014 ...................................................................................................... 13Figure 5: World Liquids Production Growth, 2005-2014 ..................................................................... 13Figure 6: Oil Price to Balance Budgets vs Current Brent at $65 ......................................................... 14Figure 7: Historical Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2005 – January 2015 ............................... 14Figure 8: Levellised Cost of Energy ($/mwh) ................................................................................................ 15Figure 9: Cumulative Capacity by Country, 2015-2024 ........................................................................... 15Figure 10: Global Oil Supply – Onshore/Offshore Split 2000-2020 ............................................... 16Figure 11: Global Deepwater Capex by Region 2009-2018 ................................................................. 16Figure 12: Control of Oil Reserves ................................................................................................................... 17Figure 13: Deepwater Focus Areas .................................................................................................................... 18Figure 14: Oil & Gas Production vs E&P Spend ........................................................................................... 19Figure 15: Skilled Workers Age Category ....................................................................................................... 19Figure 16: Shallow Water (<500m) Wells Drilled 2000-2020 ........................................................... 23Figure 17: Deepwater (>500m) Wells Drilled 2000-2020 ................................................................... 23Figure 18: Fixed and Floating Platform Installations 2002-2020 ......................................................... 24Figure 19: Subsea Tree Installations and Subsea Capex 2002-2020 ................................................ 24Figure 21: Total Platform Population by Region, 2015 .............................................................................. 25Figure 20: Fixed and Floating Platform Population by Region, 2015-2020 .................................... 25Figure 22: Offshore MMO Expenditure on Fixed and Floating Platforms 2009-2020 ............. 26Figure 23: Contracting Process ............................................................................................................................. 30Figure 24: Share of Helicopter Providers by Operator ............................................................................ 32Figure 25: Global Construction Overview 1960-2017 ............................................................................. 38Figure 26: Global Offshore Helicopter Expenditure 2014-2019 ........................................................ 45Figure 27: Global Medium Helicopter Demand Segmentation 2015-2019................................... 45Figure 28: Global Large Helicopter Demand Segmentation 2015-2019 ........................................ 45Figure 29: Africa Helicopter Expenditure 2010-2019 ............................................................................... 46Figure 30: Africa Expenditure Based on Helicopter Type 2015-2019 .............................................. 46Figure 31: Demand by Operator Type 2015-2019 .................................................................................... 46Figure 32: Africa Medium Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019 ........................... 47Figure 33: Africa Large Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019 ................................. 47Figure 34: Africa Demand Segmentation 2015-2019................................................................................ 47Figure 35: Asia Helicopter Expenditure 2010-2019 .................................................................................. 48Figure 36: Asia Expenditure Based on Helicopter Type 2015-2019 ................................................. 48Figure 37: Asia Demand by Operator Type 2015-2019 .......................................................................... 48Figure 38: Asia Medium Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019 .............................. 49Figure 39: Asia Large Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019 .................................... 49
Figure 40: Asia Demand Segmentation 2015-2019 ................................................................................... 49Figure 41: Australasia Helicopter Expenditure 2010-2019 .................................................................... 50Figure 42: Australasia Expenditure Based on Helicopter Type 2015-2019 .................................. 50Figure 43: Australasia Demand by Operator Type 2015-2019 .......................................................... 50Figure 44: Australasia Medium Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019 ................ 51Figure 45: Australasia Large Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019 ...................... 51Figure 46: Australasia Demand Segmentation 2015-2019 ..................................................................... 51Figure 47: E.Europe & FSU Helicopter Expenditure 2010-2019 ......................................................... 52Figure 48: E.Europe & FSU Expenditure Based on Helicopter Type 2015-2019 ...................... 52Figure 49: E.Europe & FSU Demand by Operator Type 2015-2019 ............................................... 52Figure 50: E.Europe & FSU Medium Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019 ..... 53Figure 51: E.Europe & FSU Large Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019 ........... 53Figure 52: E.Europe & FSU Demand Segmentation 2015-2019 .......................................................... 53Figure 53: Latin America Helicopter Expenditure 2010-2019 ............................................................. 54Figure 54: Latin America Expenditure Based on Helicopter Type 2015-2019 ........................... 54Figure 55: Latin America Demand by Operator Type 2015-2019 ................................................... 54Figure 56: Latin America Medium Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019.......... 55Figure 57: Latin America Large Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019 ............... 55Figure 58: Latin America Demand Segmentation 2015-2019 .............................................................. 55Figure 59: Middle East Helicopter Expenditure 2010-2019 .................................................................. 56Figure 60: Middle East Expenditure Based on Helicopter Type 2015-2019 ................................ 56Figure 61: Middle East Demand by Operator Type 2015-2019 ......................................................... 56Figure 62: Middle East Medium Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019 ............... 57Figure 63: Middle East Large Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019 .................... 57Figure 64: Middle East Demand Segmentation 2015-2019 ................................................................... 57Figure 65: North America Helicopter Expenditure 2010-2019 .......................................................... 58Figure 66: North America Expenditure Based on Helicopter Type 2015-2019 ........................ 58Figure 67: North America Demand by Operator Type 2015-2019 ................................................ 58Figure 68: North America Medium Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019....... 59Figure 69: North America Large Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019 ............ 59Figure 70: North America Demand Segmentation 2015-2019 ........................................................... 59Figure 71: Western Europe Helicopter Expenditure 2010-2019........................................................ 60Figure 72: Western Europe Expenditure Based on Helicopter Type 2015-2019 ..................... 60Figure 73: Western Europe Demand by Operator Type 2015-2019 .............................................. 60Figure 74: Western Europe Medium Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019 .... 61Figure 75: Western Europe Large Helicopter Supply & Demand Outlook 2010-2019.......... 61Figure 76: Western Europe Demand Segmentation 2015-2019 ........................................................ 61
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Contents
Tables
Table 1: Selected Majors’ Oil Production 2002-2014 ............................................................................... 17
Table 2: Specifications by Helicopter Type ...................................................................................................... 29
Table 3: Global Construction Overview 1960-2017 ................................................................................. 38
Table 4: Regional Market Characteristics ......................................................................................................... 43
Table 5: Helicopter Regional Characteristics ................................................................................................. 44
Table 6: Global Expenditure by Region 2014-2019 ................................................................................... 45
Table 7: Africa Expenditure by Helicopter Type 2014-2019 ................................................................. 46
Table 8: Top Helicopter Types Available in the African Market ........................................................... 47
Table 9: Asia Expenditure by Helicopter Type 2014-2019 ..................................................................... 48
Table 10: Top Helicopter Types Available in the Asian Market ............................................................ 49
Table 11: Australasia Expenditure by Helicopter Type 2014-2019 .................................................... 50
Table 12: Top Helicopter Types Available in the Australasian Market .............................................. 51
Table 13: Eastern Europe & FSU Expenditure by Helicopter Type 2014-2019 ........................... 52
Table 14: Top Helicopter Types Available in the Eastern Europe & FSU Market ........................ 53
Table 15: Latin America Expenditure by Helicopter Type 2014-2019 ............................................. 54
Table 16: Top Helicopter Types Available in the Latin America Market .......................................... 55
Table 17: Middle East Expenditure by Helicopter Type 2014-2019 .................................................. 56
Table 18: Top Helicopter Types Available in the Middle Eastern Market ........................................ 57
Table 19: North America Expenditure by Helicopter Type 2014-2019 .......................................... 58
Table 20: Top Helicopter Types Available in the North American Market .................................... 59
Table 21: Western Europe Expenditure by Helicopter Type 2014-2019 ....................................... 60
Table 22: Top Helicopter Types Available in the Western European Market ............................... 61
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