World Fuel Ethanol - Analysys and Outlook

52
1 Prepared for METI By Dr. Christoph Berg, F.O. Licht World Fuel Ethanol Analysis and Outlook 資料4

description

the ethanol analysys

Transcript of World Fuel Ethanol - Analysys and Outlook

  • 1Prepared for METI

    By

    Dr. Christoph Berg, F.O. Licht

    World Fuel EthanolAnalysis and Outlook

  • 2World Fuel EthanolSome basic concepts

    By production route:Fermentation vs. Synthetic

    By composition:Anhydrous vs. Hydrous

    By end-use:Beverage, Industrial, Fuel

  • 3World Fuel EthanolThe production route

    Synthetic ethanol:Ethylene, coal; non-renewable

    Fermentation ethanol:Grains, sugar crops, tapioca, wood etc;renewable

  • 4World Fuel EthanolThe largest synthetic producers

    SasolSADAF

    BPEquistar

    SodesMossgas

    Japan EthanolJilin Chemicals

    NeftochimChempetrol

    Aprechim

    0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

    Capacity (1000 tonnes/y)

  • 5World Fuel EthanolShare of synthetic ethanol

    Fermentation 95%Synthetic 5%

  • 6World Fuel EthanolComposition

    Anhydrous:99 pure, may be used in fuel blends.

    Hydrous:96 pure, may be used as 100% fuelsubstitute.

  • 7World Fuel EthanolFuel alcohol in Brazil

    1970 1980 1990 2000

    0

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10000

    12000

    14000

    16000

    Hydrous Anhydrous

    mln

    litr

    es

  • 8World Fuel EthanolEnd use

    Beverage alcohol:Alcoholic spirits: vodka, shochu etc.

    Industrial alcohol:Cosmetics, paints, inks.

    Fuel alcohol:Blends or pure form.

  • 9World Fuel EthanolEthanol production by type

    1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

    0

    10000

    20000

    30000

    40000

    50000

    60000

    70000

    80000

    Industrial Beverage Fuel

    in m

    ln li

    tres

  • 10

    World Fuel Ethanol 1993

    Grains

    Sugar

    World Fuel Ethanol 1993

    Grains

    Sugar

  • 11

    World Fuel Ethanol 2003

    Grains

    Sugar

  • 12

    World Fuel Ethanol 2013

    Sugar

    Grains

  • 13

    World Fuel EthanolThe drivers of growth I

    Ethanol is good for the environment(Kyoto)

    good for rural areas

    reduces dependence on oil imports

    enhances technological knowledge base

  • 14

    World Fuel EthanolThe drivers of growth II

    Demand is virtually unlimited.

    Cost reduction potential is huge.

    A tried and tested technology.

  • 15

    World Fuel EthanolSuccess factors for biofuels

    Feedstocks Technology

    Policy

  • 16

    World Fuel EthanolWorld fuel ethanol production by feedstock

    Sugar crops 61%

    Grains 39%

  • 17

    World Fuel EthanolEthanol yields per ha

    France (beet)

    Brazil (cane)

    USA (corn)

    0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

    Production (litres/ha)

  • 18

    World Fuel EthanolEthanol yields per tonne of feedstock

    France (beet)

    Brazil (cane)

    USA (corn)

    0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

    Production (litres/tonne)

  • 19

    World Fuel EthanolGross feedstock costs per litre of fuel ethanol

    France (beet)

    Brazil (cane)

    USA (corn)

    0 5 10 15 20 25

    Costs (US Cents/litre)

  • 20

    World Fuel EthanolEnergy balance by feedstock

    Sugar cane

    Biomass

    Sugar beet

    US corn

    Wheat

    RME (Biodiesel)

    0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

    Energy output/Energy input

  • 21

    World Fuel EthanolThe case for political support

    Ethanol may serve sociallydesirable goals but it...

    is more expensive than gasoline

    faces an unfavourable opportunity coststructure

  • 22

    World Fuel EthanolProduction cost reducing subsidies

    Feedstock price support.

    Capital cost support.

    Income tax concessions.

  • 23

    World Fuel EthanolIncome enhancing subsidies

    Excise tax concessions.

    Guaranteed (captive) markets.

    Price guarantees.

    Direct price support

  • 24

    World Fuel EthanolEthanol in Brazil

    19821983

    19841985

    19861987

    19881989

    19901991

    19921993

    19941995

    19961997

    19981999

    20002001

    2002

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    Ethanol Gasoline

    in p

    er c

    ent

  • 25

    World Fuel EthanolBrazil ethanol vs. gasoline economics

    1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 200320

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    Price advantage of alcohol over gasoline

    in %

  • 26

    World Fuel EthanolBrazils ethanol/methanol trade

    19821983

    19841985

    19861987

    19881989

    19901991

    19921993

    19941995

    19961997

    19981999

    20002001

    20022003

    -1000

    -500

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    Imports Exports

    mln

    litre

    s

  • 27

    World Fuel EthanolDeterminants of volatility in Brazil

    The weather: El Nino, La Nina.

    Sugar cane serves as raw material in two(four) markets:

    Sugar (domestic and international)

    Ethanol (domestic and international)

  • 28

    World Fuel EthanolBrazil ethanol vs. sugar economics

    1999 2000 2001 2002 20030.05

    0.1

    0.15

    0.2

    0.25

    0.3

    0.35

    0.4

    0.45

    Sugar domestic Anhydrous alcohol

    BR

    L/k

    g of

    tota

    l rec

    over

    able

    sug

    ars

  • 29

    World Fuel EthanolBrazil ethanol vs. sugar economics

    %

    1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    Profitability domestic sugar/ethanol

  • 30

    World Fuel EthanolBrazil ethanol vs. sugar economics

    1999 2000 2001 2002 20030.05

    0.1

    0.15

    0.2

    0.25

    0.3

    0.35

    Sugar exports (VHP) Anhydrous alcohol (AAC)

    BR

    L/k

    g of

    tota

    l rec

    over

    able

    sug

    ars

  • 31

    World Fuel EthanolBrazil ethanol vs. sugar economics

    %

    1999 2000 2001 2002 2003-40-30-20-10

    01020304050607080

    Profitability sugar exports/ethanol

  • 32

    World Fuel EthanolRemedies

    Spread cane growing over thecountry.

    Decouple ethanol from sugarproduction (dedicated ethanol-for-export plants).

  • 33

    World Fuel EthanolUS ethanol

    19781980

    19821984

    19861988

    19901992

    19941996

    19982000

    20022004

    20062008

    20102012

    0

    5000

    10000

    15000

    20000

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    Tax incentive (Y2) Output (Y1)

    Clean Air Act

    California

    RFS (?)

    mln

    litr

    es

  • 34

    World Fuel EthanolWill high stocks boost US ethanol exports?

    1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

    -10000

    -5000

    0

    5000

    10000

    Imports Exports Net trade

    1000

    hl

  • 35

    World Fuel EthanolThe European Union

    1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

    0

    1000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    6000

    Sweden Spain France

    1000

    hl

  • 36

    World Fuel EthanolThe European Union

    1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

    0

    20000

    40000

    60000

    80000

    100000

    120000

    EU total

    1000

    hl

  • 37

    World Fuel EthanolEU to become net ethanol importer

    1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

    -8000000

    -6000000

    -4000000

    -2000000

    0

    2000000

    Imports Exports

    hl

  • 38

    World Fuel EthanolFuel ethanol in Asia/Pacific

    India: mandate, blending started 2003,country-wide blending seen in 2004.

    Thailand: tax reductions, investmentssubsidies.

    China: mandate in some regions.

    Australia: tax exemption, direct support.

  • 39

    World Fuel EthanolThe 2002 supply/demand balance in Asia/Pacific

    JapanS Korea

    SingaporePhilippines

    Taiwan BrazilChina

    ThailandS Arabia

    S AfricaUSA

    AustraliaIndia

    Argentina

    -2000

    -1000

    0

    1000

    2000

    3000

    Importers

    Exporters

    1000

    hl

  • 40

    World Fuel EthanolCurrent suppliers in Asia/Pacific

    Current suppliers with potential

    Brazil

    Thailand

    India

    South Africa

  • 41

    World Fuel EthanolFuture suppliers in Asia/Pacific

    Future suppliers with potential

    Peru

    Central America

    Colombia

  • 42

    World Fuel EthanolThe Mega-Project in Peru

    Domestic and international effects

    Introduce E-10

    Replace MTBE/lead

    Fight coca (cocaine)

    Export to the US under Andean Pact

    Export to Japan

  • 43

    World Fuel EthanolExport potential under the Mega-Project

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    -1400000

    -1200000

    -1000000

    -800000

    -600000

    -400000

    -200000

    0

    Exports

    1000

    litr

    es

  • 44

    World Fuel EthanolCentral America

    Domestic and international effects

    Introduce E-10

    Replace MTBE/lead

    Provide alternative outlet for sugar cane

    Export to the US under CBI

    Export to Japan (?)

  • 45

    World Fuel EthanolColombia

    Domestic and international effects

    Introduce E-10

    Replace MTBE/lead

    Exports ?

  • 46

    World Trade in Fuel Ethanol 1990s

  • 47

    World Trade in Fuel Ethanol in the Future

  • 48

    World Fuel Ethanol ImportsBy country (very optimistic scenario)

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10000

    12000

    14000

    16000

    Other Japan USA Europe

    in m

    ln li

    tres

  • 49

    World Fuel Ethanol ImportsBy country (optimistic scenario)

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10000

    Other Japan USA Europe

    in m

    ln li

    tres

  • 50

    World Fuel Ethanol Importsvs. beverage and industrial ethanol trade

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

    2000

    4000

    6000

    8000

    10000

    12000

    14000

    16000

    Fuel ethanol Other

    in m

    ln li

    tres

  • 51

    World Fuel Ethanol ProductionBy country

    1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

    0

    10000

    20000

    30000

    40000

    50000

    60000

    EU Australia India

    Thailand China ColombiaPeru Central America Canada

    USA (fuel) Brazil (fuel)

    in m

    ln li

    tres

  • 52

    World Fuel EthanolConclusions

    World production will continue to grow strongly

    Trade will grow as well but pace will depend on

    The sugar-alcohol economics

    New investments in origins

    Establishment of a viable trading system (futures)

    Solution of the subsidy issue

    Overall outlook is very bright