United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

April 2013

World Exports 2013 Revised: Broiler Meat Higher, Beef Lower and Pork Unchanged

Global beef production for 2013 is virtually unchanged from the October estimate at 57.5 million tons as a sharp downward revision for India is offset by increases for a number of other countries. Although still forecast at a record, global exports are dropped 355,000 tons to 8.6 million driven by a more reticent outlook for India which exceeds upward revisions for Brazil and Australia. Import demand in East Asia, particularly in China and Hong Kong, is stronger while other key markets are weaker on lower consumption (Mexico) or increased production (South Korea). Global pork production is revised upward 2.7 million tons to a record 107.4 million on expected lower feed prices. Exports are reduced 90,000 tons to 7.2 million on downward revisions to the EU, the United States, and Brazil. Global broiler meat production is revised upward by 1.1 million tons to 84.6 million with the majority of growth provided by the United States, Thailand and Russia. World exports are revised up 262,000 tons to 10.3 million bolstered by higher exports from the United States, Turkey, and Ukraine.

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

Tons

CW

E/RT

C

April 2013 Forecast Prior Forecast

Pork

Broiler

Beef

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

April 2013

Contents

Summary: Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry

Beef Beef and Veal: 2013 Revised from October Beef Summary Tables Cattle Summary Tables

Pork Pork: 2013 Revised from October Pork Summary Tables Swine Summary Tables

Poultry Meat

Broiler Meat: 2013 Revised from October Broiler Meat Summary Tables

Turkey Meat Summary Tables

Notes to Readers

April 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (p) 2013 (f)

Percent Change 2012 to

2013

Beef and Veal /1 58,367 57,180 57,303 57,058 57,257 57,527 0.5%

Pork /1 97,923 100,567 102,968 102,015 105,519 107,412 1.8%

Broiler and Turkey /2 78,138 78,630 83,105 86,119 88,272 90,049 2.0%

Total 234,428 236,377 243,376 245,192 251,048 254,988 1.6%

Beef and Veal /1 57,501 56,209 56,151 55,367 55,759 56,044 0.5%

Pork /1 98,025 100,424 102,770 101,610 104,929 106,978 2.0%

Broiler & Turkey /2 77,005 77,555 81,796 84,568 86,385 88,410 2.3%

Total 232,531 234,188 240,717 241,545 247,073 251,432 1.8%

Beef and Veal /1 6,773 6,550 6,619 6,421 6,674 7,077 6.0%

Pork /1 6,260 5,540 5,886 6,606 6,904 6,844 -0.9%

Broiler and Turkey /2 8,012 7,705 8,191 8,606 8,990 9,234 2.7%

Total 21,045 19,795 20,696 21,633 22,568 23,155 2.6%

Beef and Veal /1 7,605 7,458 7,822 8,090 8,134 8,601 5.7%

Pork /1 6,220 5,682 6,081 6,997 7,305 7,245 -0.8%

Broiler and Turkey /2 9,003 8,970 9,455 10,162 10,755 10,963 1.9%

Total 22,828 22,110 23,358 25,249 26,194 26,809 2.3%

Beef and Veal /1 905 878 1,043 1,263 1,114 1,100 -1.3%

Pork /1 2,110 1,857 1,916 2,354 2,442 2,361 -3.3%

Broiler and Turkey /2 3,463 3,335 3,333 3,481 3,639 3,579 -1.6%

Total 6,478 6,070 6,292 7,098 7,195 7,040 -2.2%

Beef and Veal /1 12% 12% 13% 16% 14% 13%

Pork /1 34% 33% 32% 34% 33% 33%

Broiler and Turkey /2 38% 37% 35% 34% 34% 33%

Combined 28% 27% 27% 28% 27% 26%

Notes:

Exports

U.S. Exports

Summary:Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Poultry

Production

Consumption

Note to Readers: Totals include only those countries that make up USDA’s official PSD database are reported. This means totals do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA’s database, which represent the most important players in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported changes periodically.

1/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2/ 1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders

Imports

April 2013

BEEF AND VEAL: 2013 REVISED FROM OCTOBER Global beef production is virtually unchanged at 57.5 million tons as a sharp downward revision for India is offset by increases for a number of other countries. Although still forecast at a record, global exports are dropped 355,000 tons to 8.6 million driven by a more reticent outlook for India which exceeds upward revisions for Brazil and Australia. Import demand in East Asia, particularly in China and Hong Kong, is stronger while other key markets are weaker on lower consumption (Mexico) or increased production (South Korea).

United States Production is revised 113,000 tons higher to nearly 11.4 million on heavier slaughter weight expectations which more than offset a reduction in slaughter. However, the outlook is constrained by the availability of slaughter cattle due to declining calf crops, prior liquidation spurred by drought, and elevated feed prices. The forecasts for imports and exports are virtually unchanged. Improved market access in Japan and Hong Kong partnered with strong demand in other key markets are expected to offset restrictions by Russia. Brazil Production is revised 125,000 tons higher to a record 9.5 million. Despite a shift of some pasture to soybeans and corn during the current season, herd expansion is bolstered by government support, genetic improvements, better pasture management, sustained cattle prices, excellent pasture conditions, greater supplies of slaughter cattle and strong international demand. Exports are revised 150,000 tons higher to nearly 1.6 million as stable competitive prices and ample supplies boost shipments. A 16 percent devaluation of the Real over the past year will help Brazilian competitiveness. Thus despite the atypical BSE case in the state of Parana, only made public in late 2012, restrictions by Saudi Arabia, Japan, South Africa, South Korea, China and Taiwan (combined less than 5 percent of exports) will be more than offset by demand from other markets. Increased opportunities for shipments to Russia will likely be generated due to gradual Brazilian plant relistings as well as Russian restrictions on competing U.S. beef.

1.25

1.75

2.25

2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

Tons

CW

E

Beef Export Competition Tightens Between Brazil and India

April 2013 Forecast Prior Forecast

India

Brazil

April 2013

EU Production is revised 35,000 tons higher to 7.7 million. With a slight increase in consumption, the trade forecast remains unchanged. China Production is virtually unchanged at nearly 5.6 million tons. Despite restrictions on Brazil, imports are forecast 141,000 tons higher to a record 175,000 as demand remains firm and foreign products are becoming price-competitive due to a stronger Yuan. Argentina Production is revised 20,000 tons upward to 2.8 million on increased slaughter as higher than expected production costs squeeze profit margins. However, exports remain unchanged at 180,000 tons constrained by government export regulations, elevated cattle prices and competition from other South American suppliers (Uruguay and Paraguay) in key markets such as Chile, Russia and Israel. Australia Production is revised upward 25,000 tons to a record 2.2 million on increased slaughter due to a return to drier conditions, rising input costs and higher rural debt. With ample supplies, competitive prices and robust international demand, exports are revised 55,000 tons higher to a record of nearly 1.5 million. Higher than previously forecast demand by China and greater shipments to the United States are expected to more than offset declines in key markets (Japan and South Korea). Mexico Production is virtually unchanged at 1.8 million tons as the sector continues to be challenged by low volumes of slaughter ready cattle due to drought-impacted pasture, high feed prices and elevated live cattle exports. As higher beef prices depress consumption across all income levels, imports are revised 90,000 tons lower to 260,000. Exports remain unchanged. Live cattle exports are revised 35,000 head lower to 1.3 million as smaller calf crops constrain supplies and Turkey closed its market to shipments from Mexico. Russia Production is revised 45,000 tons upward to nearly 1.4 million on higher than expected slaughter caused by higher feed prices as well as rising weights due to improved herd management. Imports are revised 45,000 tons lower to 1.0 million due to data revisions. Canada Production is revised 55,000 tons lower to 1.0 million, a 17-year low. Revisions to prior calf crops have negatively impacted cattle available for slaughter. Tighter supplies generate a downward revision of exports by 85,000 tons to 330,000, also a 17-year low even compared to 2003 (its first BSE case). Tight supplies and stable demand also push imports 25,000 tons higher to 315,000 tons.

April 2013

Live cattle exports are forecast 175,000 head higher to 875,000 due to the erosion of the feed cost advantage vis-à-vis the United States as well as operational changes at one plant (XL Foods, Alberta) and the closure of another (Levinoff-Colbex, Quebec). Japan Production is revised 10,000 tons higher to 505,000 on stronger demand. Expanded market access for U.S. beef and anticipated strong demand for grain-fed beef is expected to boost imports and consumption. Imports are revised 10,000 tons higher to 760,000 with U.S. market share expected to increase at the expense of Australia. Paraguay Strong foreign demand, particularly by Russia, drives production 35,000 tons higher to 465,000 and exports 25,000 tons higher to 275,000. South Korea Production is revised 35,000 tons higher to 336,000 on increased slaughter due changed profit margins on revised forecasts for live cattle prices (lower) and feed prices (higher). Consumption is expected to decline slightly, constrained by an abundant supply of low-priced domestic pork and a sluggish economy. As a result, imports are revised 35,000 tons lower to 370,000 tons. Saudi Arabia With production unchanged, imports are revised 40,000 tons lower to 165,000 as BSE-related restrictions on Brazil constrain importable supplies.

April 2013

Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Oct

2013

Apr

none

Production

9,5009,3759,3079,0309,1158,935 Brazil

7,7357,7007,7658,0578,0487,913 EU-27

5,5905,5805,5405,5505,6005,764 China

3,8004,1683,4603,2442,8422,514 India

2,8002,7802,6202,5302,6203,380 Argentina

2,2102,1852,1522,1292,1292,106 Australia

1,8001,7951,8201,8041,7451,705 Mexico

1,4001,4001,4001,4351,4701,441 Pakistan

1,3901,3451,3801,3601,4351,460 Russia

1,0001,0551,0751,1541,2731,252 Canada

8,9168,8698,8838,7778,9808,819 Others

46,14146,25245,40245,07045,25745,289 Total Foreign

11,38611,27311,85511,98812,04611,891 United States

57,52757,52557,25757,05857,30357,180 Total

none

Total Dom. Consumption

7,9607,9857,8457,7307,5927,374 Brazil

7,7857,7507,8067,9758,1478,263 EU-27

5,7255,5715,5975,5245,5895,749 China

2,6222,6022,4582,3202,3462,761 Argentina

2,4162,4162,3952,3432,4872,505 Russia

2,1002,0082,0491,9761,9251,905 India

1,8351,9201,8351,9211,9381,976 Mexico

1,3671,3671,3671,4021,4361,414 Pakistan

1,2701,2481,2551,2371,2251,211 Japan

1,0109301,0121,0091,0001,016 Canada

10,47810,40810,39610,27910,4289,796 Others

44,56844,20544,01543,71644,11343,970 Total Foreign

11,47611,36111,74411,65112,03812,239 United States

56,04455,56655,75955,36756,15156,209 Total

Notes: May contain meat of other bovines.

April 2013

Beef and Veal Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Oct

2013

Apr

none

Total Imports

1,0351,0801,0239911,0571,053 Russia

760750737745721697 Japan

370405370431366315 Korea, South

350350348367437498 EU-27

325200241152154154 Hong Kong

315290301282243247 Canada

260350215265296322 Mexico

225225250217260180 Egypt

220235220195143250 Venezuela

190190187180190166 Chile

1,8641,7141,7751,6631,7101,477 Others

5,9145,7895,6675,4885,5775,359 Total Foreign

1,1631,1881,0079331,0421,191 United States

7,0776,9776,6746,4216,6196,550 Total

none

Total Exports

1,7002,1601,4111,268917609 India

1,6001,4501,5241,3401,5581,596 Brazil

1,4651,4101,4071,4101,3681,364 Australia

505529517503530514 New Zealand

370375355320347376 Uruguay

330415335426523480 Canada

300300307449338148 EU-27

275250251197283243 Paraguay

22522520014810351 Mexico

180180164213277621 Argentina

551551549553535578 Others

7,5017,8457,0206,8276,7796,580 Total Foreign

1,1001,1111,1141,2631,043878 United States

8,6018,9568,1348,0907,8227,458 Total

Notes: May contain meat of other bovines.

April 2013

Cattle Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Oct

2013

Apr

none

Total Cattle Beg. Stks

327,100327,300323,700320,800316,400309,900 India

203,273203,715197,550190,925185,159179,540 Brazil

104,203104,152104,346104,822105,430105,722 China

85,75085,32086,19687,43788,30088,837 EU-27

51,19551,09749,59748,15649,05754,260 Argentina

30,57630,61030,91030,97130,84530,775 Colombia

29,87929,71028,50627,55027,90627,321 Australia

19,45819,43019,69519,97020,67721,040 Russia

18,52118,57020,09021,45622,19222,666 Mexico

12,27512,54512,21512,15512,67013,030 Canada

55,73455,49855,71756,10857,47875,989 Others

937,964937,947928,522920,350916,114929,080 Total Foreign

89,30089,70090,76992,68293,88194,521 United States

1,027,2641,027,6471,019,2911,013,0321,009,9951,023,601 Total

none

Production (Calf Crop)

64,30064,40063,40062,50061,70061,000 India

50,18550,18549,69049,44549,20049,150 Brazil

41,55041,36540,95040,90041,50042,576 China

29,00029,15029,25029,60030,00030,100 EU-27

14,20014,20013,80013,10011,60012,000 Argentina

9,82510,00010,0009,6188,84210,025 Australia

6,9506,9006,9006,8006,9527,389 Russia

6,6006,6006,8006,9007,0006,875 Mexico

5,0005,0005,1255,1505,2005,300 Colombia

4,8404,9434,9454,7864,5304,523 New Zealand

15,64515,72015,72416,00015,98221,317 Others

248,095248,463246,584244,799242,506250,255 Total Foreign

33,80034,15034,27935,31335,69535,939 United States

281,895282,613280,863280,112278,201286,194 Total

Notes: 1/ May contain other bovines.

2/ From 2010, Nicaragua and South Africa are excluded.

April 2013

Cattle Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Oct

2013

Apr

none

Total Imports

525500616335612407 Venezuela

140110138943849 Russia

1201201151038347 China

100100957014045 Egypt

556556735654 Canada

162510162520 Mexico

131514121616 Japan

333312 Ukraine

212110 Belarus

000769171 Others

9749391,0497141,041811 Total Foreign

2,1502,0002,2562,1072,2842,002 United States

3,1242,9393,3052,8213,3252,813 Total

none

Total Exports

1,3151,3501,5391,4351,261980 Mexico

8757008256961,0651,067 Canada

750800769812623403 EU-27

590590512405655530 Brazil

580725620695875954 Australia

25025029961245 Colombia

606075213207207 Uruguay

474742342713 New Zealand

272928292829 China

516511 Russia

43551113 Others

4,5034,5554,7204,3904,7674,302 Total Foreign

2102251911949158 United States

4,7134,7804,9114,5844,8584,360 Total

Notes: 1/ May contain other bovines.

2/ From 2010, Nicaragua and South Africa are excluded.

April 2013

Japan

Mexico

China Canada

Korea

Russia

Other

2008

PORK: 2013 REVISED FROM OCTOBER Global pork production is revised upward 2.7 million tons to a record 107.4 million on expected lower feed prices. Exports are reduced 90,000 tons to 7.2 million on downward revisions to the EU, the United States, and Brazil. United States Production is raised 229,000 tons to 10.7 million largely on expected lower feed grain prices and more slaughter. Slaughter hog supply is greater because of smaller declines to the swine breeding herd and a larger pig crop, as producers weathered 2012 high feed grain prices. Adding to hog supplies, swine imports are raised 100,000 head to 5.6 million with expectations that a more normal corn crop will boost demand for Canadian feeder pigs. Exports are lowered 84,000 tons to 2.4 million as lower sales to Russia and soft Japanese demand offset greater exports to Mexico and Canada. Swine exports, which consist almost entirely of breeding stock, are raised 20,000 head to 60,000 due to growing demand from China, Mexico, and Russia. A recent protocol with the EU now allows U.S. hogs to transit through to Russia.

China Production is raised by 1.8 million tons to a record 53.8 million mainly on greater slaughter hog supplies and heavier carcass weights. The pig crop is raised 3 percent due to better disease management practices which limited losses during the winter season. The government’s decision to extend sow production subsidies through June is expected to help boost pig production. Imports are lowered 115,000 tons to 700,000 on higher domestic production and lower pork prices. Swine exports are raised 90,000 head to 1.7 million as lower priced hogs meet stronger demand from Hong Kong and Macau.

Mexico and China Account for Growing Share of U.S. Pork Exports

Japan

Mexico

China Canada

Korea

Russia

Other

2012

2.1 Million Tons 2.5 Million Tons

April 2013

EU Pork production is lowered 75,000 tons to 22.6 million due to a lower pig crop resulting from the newly implemented sow housing requirements. Exports are lowered 115,000 tons to 2.3 million despite market opportunities because of tight exportable supplies. Brazil Production is raised 40,000 tons to 3.4 million on improved hog prices and more stable feed costs from record soybean and corn crops. However, exports are lowered 25,000 tons to 620,000 because of Ukraine’s restrictions on imports from Brazil, which was their top market last year. Sales will likely be re-directed to other markets like Russia, Angola, Georgia, and Moldova. Russia’s elimination of preferential tariff rates is not expected to limit sales. Canada Production is raised 20,000 tons to 1.8 million as the hog sector copes with high feed costs and the producers’ fragile financial situations. Most remained in business and continued to produce as usual on expectations of improved hog prices. Consequentially, sow beginning were higher and the pig crop is raised 350,000 head to 28.2 million. Swine exports are raised 100,000 head to 5.7 million as U.S. demand for feeder pigs is expected to remain strong. Pork exports are boosted 35,000 tons to 1.2 million on greater shipments to Mexico and Russia. New Russian ractopamine restrictions may slow sales in the near term and keep them below 2012 levels. Russia Production is up 75,000 tons to 2.2 million despite higher feed prices. The hog industry continues to expand, aided by government support for large, modern facilities. However, imports are also raised 80,000 tons to 1.1 million, given their competitive prices. Trade restrictions on U.S. pork will mean more market share available for other suppliers. Swine imports are cut by more than half to 250,000 head with ongoing restrictions on EU swine due to the Schmallenberg virus (a ruminant disease). Japan Production is raised 40,000 tons to 1.3 million on lower expected feed grain prices. The pig crop is revised upward 4 percent as the national sow inventory is rebuilt, particularly in the Miyazaki prefecture (a major hog producing region that was hard hit by an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) several years ago). Imports are lowered 30,000 tons to 1.2 million based on the depreciation of the yen, larger domestic supplies, greater consumption of U.S. beef due to improved market access, and increased competition from poultry meat because of competitive prices. Mexico Production is forecast 60,000 tons higher at 1.3 million, as more sows were retained last year. However, imports are also raised 80,000 tons to a record 770,000 based on competitive import

April 2013

prices and strong demand, as pork substitutes for higher-priced beef. Swine imports are doubled as industry expansion results in strong breeding stock demand. South Korea Production is raised 190,000 tons to a record 1.2 million. The swine industry recovery following the 2011 FMD outbreak resulted in an oversupply of hogs. In an attempt to stop prices from falling below production costs, the government procured 64,000 head in the first 2 months of 2013. Producer groups and the government have also agreed to: 1) a voluntary 20 percent reduction in sow stocks with failure to comply resulting in reduced government support, 2) reduced slaughter weights, 3) an increase in the ratio of domestic to imported pork in processed meat and 4) a national bacon sale for 2 weeks in March to encourage consumption. As a result of these large domestic supplies, consumption is up to record levels while imports are slashed 105,000 tons to 400,000. Ukraine Production is lowered 20,000 tons to 600,000. However, imports are unchanged at 200,000 tons. A ban on imports from Brazil (Ukraine’s largest supplier) is expected to keep trade below record 2012 levels.

April 2013

Pork Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Oct

2013

Apr

none

Production

53,80052,00052,35049,50051,07048,905 China

22,55022,62522,63022,86622,57122,434 EU-27

3,3703,3303,3303,2273,1953,130 Brazil

2,1502,0752,0752,0001,9201,844 Russia

2,0252,0252,0001,9601,9301,910 Vietnam

1,7951,7751,8201,7971,7711,788 Canada

1,4201,2751,3821,2751,2471,234 Philippines

1,3051,2651,2971,2671,2921,310 Japan

1,2701,2101,2271,2021,1751,162 Mexico

1,2401,0501,0868371,1101,062 Korea, South

860860865865845857 Taiwan

620590584528498514 Chile

600620600704631527 Ukraine

360360347340327325 Belarus

350295331301279289 Argentina

3,0282,9153,0413,0152,9212,834 Others

96,74394,27094,96591,68492,78290,125 Total Foreign

10,66910,44010,55410,33110,18610,442 United States

107,412104,710105,519102,015102,968100,567 Total

none

Total Dom. Consumption

54,22552,61552,72550,00451,15748,823 China

20,31020,27020,42320,68020,84221,057 EU-27

3,2303,0753,1452,9712,8352,719 Russia

2,7512,6862,6702,6442,5772,423 Brazil

2,5332,5312,5572,5222,4882,467 Japan

2,0052,0051,9801,9401,9121,891 Vietnam

1,9301,7901,8381,7101,7841,770 Mexico

1,6281,5551,5461,4871,5391,480 Korea, South

1,5561,4031,5181,4191,4051,344 Philippines

891892893919901925 Taiwan

825810820785802853 Canada

775800852806776713 Ukraine

555573544558467486 Hong Kong

520541514482482464 Australia

460439430408385369 Chile

4,1253,8994,0363,9353,7653,627 Others

98,31995,88496,49193,27094,11791,411 Total Foreign

8,6598,3698,4388,3408,6539,013 United States

106,978104,253104,929101,610102,770100,424 Total

April 2013

Pork Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Oct

2013

Apr

none

Total Imports

1,2301,2601,2591,2541,1981,138 Japan

1,0801,0001,070971916876 Russia

770690706594687678 Mexico

700815730758415270 China

420445414432347369 Hong Kong

400505502640382390 Korea, South

245225241204183180 Canada

210210194175183176 Australia

200200281119146186 Ukraine

1551251511178630 Belarus

138130138145159111 Philippines

1151001059710497 Singapore

1008287785861 Angola

656564585660 Croatia

455035221110 Colombia

608569564578565530 Others

6,4816,4716,5416,2425,4965,162 Total Foreign

363363363364390378 United States

6,8446,8346,9046,6065,8865,540 Total

none

Total Exports

2,2602,3752,2262,2051,7541,416 EU-27

1,2301,1951,2431,1971,1591,123 Canada

620645661584619707 Brazil

250200235244278232 China

190175180139130152 Chile

11090104856231 Belarus

11011095867870 Mexico

353536414140 Australia

2520291710 Ukraine

202020201921 Vietnam

342534252433 Others

4,8844,8904,8634,6434,1653,825 Total Foreign

2,3612,4452,4422,3541,9161,857 United States

7,2457,3357,3056,9976,0815,682 Total

April 2013

Swine Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Oct

2013

Apr

none

Total Beginning Stocks

474,920466,645473,340477,115469,960462,913 China

147,000148,450148,545150,773152,198153,067 EU-27

38,57839,27638,33636,65235,12233,892 Brazil

18,79317,30017,25817,23117,23616,165 Russia

12,72012,81312,78512,69012,46512,700 Canada

9,9169,7008,1718,4498,7218,223 Korea, South

9,5109,4999,2769,0078,9799,310 Mexico

9,5009,7009,7359,76810,0009,899 Japan

7,5167,4007,3737,9607,5776,526 Ukraine

4,2284,1003,9893,8873,7823,704 Belarus

2,1592,3002,2852,2892,3022,412 Others

734,840727,183731,093735,821728,342718,811 Total Foreign

66,41365,20066,36164,92564,88767,148 United States

801,253792,383797,454800,746793,229785,959 Total

none

Production (Pig Crop)

710,558690,000697,800660,622677,800655,620 China

261,000268,000260,500264,250262,200257,700 EU-27

38,10037,90037,70037,75036,97035,890 Brazil

34,50032,64533,30030,65029,47228,798 Russia

28,20027,85028,30628,59428,68829,410 Canada

17,50016,89017,05017,00017,50017,700 Japan

16,80016,47516,50016,35016,20015,966 Mexico

16,00014,47016,34013,30814,92314,916 Korea, South

7,5007,7007,4008,1098,1767,400 Ukraine

5,4505,3265,2755,0755,0254,950 Belarus

4,6004,6804,6024,6594,6044,390 Others

1,140,2081,121,9361,124,7731,086,3671,101,5581,072,740 Total Foreign

118,944115,830117,724115,838113,685114,542 United States

1,259,1521,237,7661,242,4971,202,2051,215,2431,187,282 Total

April 2013

Swine Selected Countries Summary

(in 1,000 head)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Oct

2013

Apr

none

Total Imports

2506003347827831,205 Russia

2502302251129077 Ukraine

3216311297 Mexico

2222181566 China

1010111620 Korea, South

525523 Belarus

332333 Canada

222123 EU-27

111250 Brazil

111111 Japan

000000 Others

5768876309499031,305 Total Foreign

5,6305,5305,6525,7955,7496,365 United States

6,2066,4176,2826,7446,6527,670 Total

none

Total Exports

5,6505,5505,6725,8215,7616,376 Canada

1,7001,6101,6401,5631,7481,695 China

1,2001,4001,2401,5861,6282,211 EU-27

110115103113543 Belarus

112611 Brazil

111110 Ukraine

000011 Others

8,6628,6778,6589,0909,19410,287 Total Foreign

604054301521 United States

8,7228,7178,7129,1209,20910,308 Total

April 2013

BROILER MEAT: 2013 REVISED FROM OCTOBER

Global broiler meat production is revised upward by 1.1 million tons to 84.6 million with the majority of growth provided by the United States, Thailand and Russia. World exports are revised up 262,000 tons to 10.3 million bolstered by higher exports from the United States, Turkey, and Ukraine.

United States Production is boosted 671,000 tons to a record 17.0 million as a result of better prices and higher weights. Exports are raised 114,000 tons to 3.3 million driven by escalating demand in Mexico and Cuba, coupled with Russia’s removal of preferential tariffs for a number of counties including Brazil. Brazil Production is lowered 170,000 tons to 12.8 million as a result of shrinking domestic demand. However, exports are raised 25,000 tons to 3.6 million due to greater demand in East Asia and the Middle East. EU Production is down 30,000 tons to 9.6 million as declines in France and the United Kingdom outweigh expansion mainly in Germany and Poland. Exports are lowered by 60,000 tons to 1.1 million due to a reduction of available exportable supplies, as a result of the bankruptcy of Doux (France’s leading producer) and lower restitutions.

0

2

4

6

8

10

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

Tons

*Thailand, China, Turkey, Argentina and Ukraine

Smaller Suppliers of Broiler Meat Capture Nearly Half of Demand Growth

*Select Exporters

EU-27

United States

Brazil

April 2013

China Production is decreased by 50,000 tons to 14.1 million due to tighter margins on higher feed costs and lower prices. Exports are unchanged at 400,000 tons due to price competitive supplies from Brazil and the United States in some markets, but expanding demand in other markets. Russia Production is raised 100,000 tons to 3.0 million as increased government supports and stronger demand (fueled by a rising preference for value-added products and elevated red meat prices) moderate higher costs. Exports are up 25,000 tons to 80,000 as a result of preferential market access to Kazakhstan due to the Customs Union. Imports are higher by 60,000 tons to 580,000 due to greater demand for low-cost sources of protein. Mexico Production is increased 25,000 tons to 3.0 million despite higher costs associated with feed and bio-security measures in response to the avian influenza (AI) outbreak. Exports are cut 4,000 tons to 8,000 due to the AI outbreak. Imports remain unchanged at 640,000 tons as a result of stable per capita consumption. Argentina Production remains unchanged at 2.0 million tons, while exports are up 30,000 tons to 315,000 in response to larger demand from Venezuela, China and Chile. Turkey Production remains unchanged at 1.7 million tons, although exports are raised 70,000 tons to 330,000 as a result of burgeoning demand from Iraq and other Middle-East markets. Thailand Production is boosted 110,000 tons to 1.6 million as a result of higher domestic and foreign demand. Exports are up 20,000 tons to 600,000 with greater market access to European and East Asian markets. Ukraine Production is raised 83,000 tons to 903,000 as new production facilities come into operation. Exports jump 70,000 tons to 120,000 in response to growing demand from Kazakhstan and Russia.

April 2013

Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Oct

2013

Apr

none

Production

14,05014,10013,70013,20012,55012,100 China

12,83513,00512,64512,86312,31211,023 Brazil

9,5509,5809,5109,3209,2028,756 EU-27

3,4203,4203,1602,9002,6502,550 India

2,9752,9502,9582,9062,8222,781 Mexico

2,9502,8502,8302,5752,3102,060 Russia

2,0222,0221,9361,7701,6801,500 Argentina

1,7001,7001,6871,6141,4301,250 Turkey

1,5601,4501,5501,3501,2801,200 Thailand

1,5501,5501,5401,5151,4651,409 Indonesia

14,98614,57514,63714,10413,62913,048 Others

67,59867,20266,15364,11761,33057,677 Total Foreign

17,01216,34116,62116,69416,56315,935 United States

84,61083,54382,77480,81177,89373,612 Total

none

Total Dom. Consumption

13,92013,95013,54313,01512,45712,210 China

9,2309,4249,1399,4229,0417,802 Brazil

9,2109,2109,1389,0148,9548,710 EU-27

3,6073,5783,5693,4733,3643,264 Mexico

3,4503,3153,3213,0132,9572,982 Russia

3,4113,4113,1512,8912,6482,549 India

2,1852,1302,2192,1042,0791,979 Japan

1,8001,7381,7561,6851,5241,443 South Africa

1,7101,7461,6591,5561,4751,327 Argentina

1,5501,5501,5401,5151,4651,412 Indonesia

19,37818,97318,83218,21117,34116,021 Others

69,45169,02567,86765,89963,30559,699 Total Foreign

13,80413,22513,34213,66413,47012,946 United States

83,25582,25081,20979,56376,77572,645 Total

Notes:

1/ Chicken paws are excluded.

April 2013

Broiler Meat Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Oct

2013

Apr

none

Total Imports

860840876895788645 Japan

807750799789681605 Saudi Arabia

720750718731681719 EU-27

640640616578549492 Mexico

624610612598522397 Iraq

580520560463656929 Russia

395380371325240206 South Africa

330340301287239161 Angola

310380300410295253 Hong Kong

270250254238286401 China

3,2953,1483,1702,9072,8482,485 Others

8,8318,6088,5778,2217,7857,293 Total Foreign

514751494845 United States

8,8828,6558,6288,2707,8337,338 Total

none

Total Exports

3,6073,5823,5083,4433,2723,222 Brazil

1,0601,1201,0901,037929765 EU-27

600580538467432379 Thailand

400400411423379291 China

33026028520611086 Turkey

315285281224214178 Argentina

145150140143147147 Canada

1205075433218 Ukraine

110110105743821 Belarus

969593907987 Chile

265268259220173146 Others

7,0486,9006,7856,3705,8055,340 Total Foreign

3,2663,1523,3033,1623,0693,093 United States

10,31410,05210,0889,5328,8748,433 Total

Notes:

1/ Chicken paws are excluded.

April 2013

Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Oct

none

Production

2,0302,0201,9501,9461,7951,830 EU-27

520510489485466465 Brazil

165165160159167180 Canada

10510090703139 Russia

131413111115 Mexico

888887 South Africa

666655 China

2,8472,8232,7162,6852,4832,541 Total Foreign

2,5922,6752,5922,5272,5352,796 United States

5,4395,4985,3085,2125,0185,337 Total

none

Total Dom. Consumption

1,9601,9511,8851,9111,8011,835 EU-27

360355348327302261 Brazil

167183164163155212 Mexico

149148145143151163 Canada

12512011710572107 Russia

484032343438 South Africa

474740323250 China

2,8562,8442,7312,7152,5472,666 Total Foreign

2,2992,3322,2742,3062,3632,434 United States

5,1555,1765,0055,0214,9105,100 Total

April 2013

Turkey Meat Selected Countries Summary

1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Oct

none

Total Imports

155170152153144197 Mexico

80818299112125 EU-27

414134262745 China

403224262631 South Africa

202027354168 Russia

787889 Canada

000000 Others

343352326347358475 Total Foreign

910101196 United States

352362336358367481 Total

none

Total Exports

160155141158164204 Brazil

150150147134106120 EU-27

252522242525 Canada

111100 Mexico

000000 Others

336331311317295349 Total Foreign

313336319264242306 United States

649667630581537655 Total

April 2013

Notes to Readers

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat trade. Summary tables for meat production, imports, exports, and consumption provide an overview. Data Modifications Prior to 2012 Cattle/Beef:

• The cattle PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2005-2011 period due to official trade data revisions: Belarus

• The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particularly years during the 1999-2011 period on additional production data available: Angola, Albania, Belarus, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Peru, South Africa, Switzerland

• The beef PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 1997-2011 period on additional trade data available: Angola, Belarus, Congo, Macedonia, Oman, Paraguay, Russia, Saudi Arabia

Swine/Pork:

• The pork PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2001-2011 period due to additional trade or production data: Angola, Armenia, Australia, Belarus, Canada, Colombia, Congo, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, EU, Georgia, Ghana, Guatemala, Honduras, Hong Kong, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, New Zealand, Norway, Panama, Philippines, Russia, and Serbia.

• The swine PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2010-2011 period due to additional trade or production data: Australia, Canada, EU, Japan, and Russia.

Broiler Meat:

• The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2006-2011 period on additional production data available: Chile, Colombia, Saudi Arabia, Macedonia

• The broiler meat PSDs for the following countries are revised for particular years during the 2008-2011 period on additional trade data available: Argentina, Gabon, Russia, Georgia, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Macedonia, United Arab Emirates

Turkey Meat:

• The turkey meat forecast is NOT revised from the October release and summary tables reflect data previously published.

Assumptions

• BSE: Forecast assumes a continuation of trade policies due to BSE (bovine spongiform encephalopathy) currently in place by U.S. and Canadian trading partners as of April 10, 2013.

• Other Diseases (AI, H1N1, FMD): Forecast reflects policies currently in place as a result of outbreaks as of April 10, 2013.

April 2013

Conversion Rates Beef &Veal Pork

Conversion Rate 1.40 1.30 HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0201

Frozen: 0202 Processed: 021020 & 160250

Fresh/Chilled: 020311, 020312, 020319 Frozen: 020321, 020322, 020329 Processed: 021011, 021012, 021019, 160241, 160242, 160249

Broiler Meat Turkey Meat Conversion Rate 1 1 HS Codes Fresh/Chilled: 0207.11, 0207.13

Frozen: 0207.12, 0207.14 Processed and Salted: 1602.32,

0210.99

Fresh/Chilled: 0207.24, 0207.26, 0207.32, 0207.34, 0207.35

Frozen: 0207.25, 0207.27, 0207.33, 0207.36 Processed: 1602.31

Note: There are several exceptions by country/product. In general, chicken paws are excluded and carabeef (buffalo meat) is included.

Technical Notes

CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported. FAS Reports from Overseas Offices

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is based on post reports submitted since January 2013 and on available secondary information. The individual country reports can be obtained on FAS Online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/attacherep/default.asp. PSD Online

The entire USDA PSD database is available electronically on PSD Online. Users can use this system to generate the full set of PSD data for those countries reporting. PSD Online can be reached through http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline. Additional Resources

Please refer to the USDA-FAS Dairy, Livestock and Poultry website at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp for additional data and analysis. Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/LDP/. Future Releases and Contact Information

Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/livestock_poultry.asp to view archived and future releases. The next release of this circular will be in October 2013. Questions may be directed to the following staff:

Lesley Ahmed (202) 720-2781 Lesley.Ahmed@fas.usda.gov Swine and Pork

Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 Claire.Mezoughem@fas.usda.gov Cattle and Beef

Lazaro Sandoval (202) 720-7285 Lazaro.Sandoval@fas.usda.gov Poultry (Broiler, Turkey and Other Poultry products)

April 2013