World Energy Transitions

James Hayes-Bohanan, Ph.D.

Considerations

• Kinds of energy

• Patterns of energy use

• Sources of energy

• The future of energy

• No “magic bullets” for sale here!

Kinds of energy

• Perpetual

• Renewable

• Non-renewable

• Conservation

Historic energy use in U.S.

Cutter and Renwick, 1999.

Major commercial sources of energy

• Fossil Fuels– Coal– Oil– Natural Gas

• Nuclear

• Hydroelectric

Major Coal Reserves

Major Oil Reserves

Gulf Petroleum Exports

Energy Policy Considerations in the Aftermath of September 11Philip K. Verleger, Jr.http://www.ase.org/stars/pdf/pverleger.pdf

Petroleum dependence

Analysis from ForbesWhat is at stake in Saudi Arabia:

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2001/1112/064_print.html

Ten-dollar gasoline?:http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2001/10/2201022oilcosts_print.html

Patterns of trade:http://www.forbes.com/static_html/oil/oil.shtml

NuclearCycles

Note dfferencesbetween currentand “future”pathways.

U.S. Vehicle Fuel Efficiency

Energy Policy Considerations in the Aftermath of September 11Philip K. Verleger, Jr. http://www.ase.org/stars/pdf/pverleger.pdf

U.S. Car/Truck Mix

Energy Policy Considerations in the Aftermath of September 11Philip K. Verleger, Jr. http://www.ase.org/stars/pdf/pverleger.pdf

The future of energy

• Global

• National

• State and regional

• Institutional

• Individual

Global scale

• Resource limitations

• Climate change

• Other environmental harm

• Geopolitics

National scale - imported oil

• Slow rate of overall economic growth

• Increase taxes on imported oil

• Encourage conservation

• Promote domestic alternatives

• Region-specific incentives

• Strategic petroleum reserves

Energy Policy Considerations in the Aftermath of September 11Philip K. Verleger, Jr. http://www.ase.org/stars/pdf/pverleger.pdf

National scale - longer term

• The previous list simply “buys time” while alternatives are found.

• According to Verleger, “after 2015, the United States and other major consumers may have to admit that the resource base outside the Middle East is insufficient.”

• Therefore, the policies focused on “energy independence” are not useful long-term: Post-petroleum policies are needed.

Post-petroleum technologies

• Wind

• Solar

• Tides

• Fuel Cells

State and regional scale

• Electricity deregulation– Price– Air-quality– Promoting alternatives

• Government as consumer

• Mass-transit and highway decisions

Institutional scale

• Energy Bear!

• Information systems

• ROI: Return on Investment

Individual scale

• Motivation

• Consumption choices

• Geographic choices

• Technology choices: ROI

• Reduce, reuse, recycle, repair

Utility facts

Under energy deregulation, consumers may have greater control over the energy choices made on their behalf

Further information

• Environmental Geography web site at http://webhost.bridgew.edu/jhayesboh

• Energy education page (choose “Energy” from drop-down menu)

• Includes this presentation and citations