World Energy Outlook 2020 and Global Electricity …World Electricity Consumption vs. GDP 1971-2000...
Transcript of World Energy Outlook 2020 and Global Electricity …World Electricity Consumption vs. GDP 1971-2000...
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WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2020
and
Global Electricity InvestmentChallenges
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World Energy Outlook SeriesWorld Energy Outlook SeriesWorld Energy Outlook 1998
World Energy Outlook 1999 Insights: Looking at Energy Subsidies: Getting the Prices Right
World Energy Outlook 2000
World Energy Outlook 2001 Insights: AssessingToday’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth
World Energy Outlook 2002 (2nd edition issued)
World Energy Outlook 2003 Insights: Global Energy Investment Outlook
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WEO 2002: Key StrategicWEO 2002: Key StrategicChallengesChallenges
security of energy supplies
investment in energy infrastructure
threat of environmental damage caused byenergy use
uneven access of the world’s population tomodern energy.
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Global TrendsGlobal Trends
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World Electricity Consumption World Electricity Consumption vsvs. GDP. GDP1971-2000 1971-2000
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GDP (billion $(1995) using PPPs)
Elec
tricit
y con
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ptio
n (T
Wh)
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World electricity demand is set to increase rapidly
Electricity Demand 2000 to 2030:
OECD: 1.5%Transition Economies: 2.0%Developing Countries: 4.1%
WORLD: 2.4%
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World Power-GenerationWorld Power-GenerationCapacity Additions, 2000-2030Capacity Additions, 2000-2030
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Gas Coal Hydro Other renewables Oil Nuclear Fuel cells
More than 40% of new capacity worldwide is gas-fired
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World Installed Power-World Installed Power-Generation CapacityGeneration Capacity
Nearly 5,000 GW of capacity is built in 2000-2030, almost half in developing countries
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World Power-GenerationWorld Power-GenerationInvestment, 2000-2030Investment, 2000-2030
Cumulative worldwide investment in new power plants amounts to $ 4.2 trillion, more than half in developing countries
AfricaE. AsiaChinaPacificEuropeNorth America
Middle East
Transition economies
South Asia
Latin America
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$ bi
llion
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0 do
llars
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World Power Generation CapacityWorld Power Generation CapacityInvestments 2000-2030Investments 2000-2030
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Fuel Cells
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OECDOECD
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Ordered Power-GenerationCapacity Additions to 2010
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US and Canada Japan EU15
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Coal Oil Gas Other
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EU Capacity Additions and Investment
EU investment needs will increase over time in both GW and $ terms
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Installed Capacity in EU-15Installed Capacity in EU-15
Capacity additions over the next 30 years will be largerthan today's installed capacity
901 GWInstalled Capacity - 2030
584 GW 290 GW 618 GWInstalled Capacity
2000Retirements 2000-2030
New Capacity2000 - 2030
====
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Age of Installed CapacityAge of Installed Capacityin EU-15in EU-15
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< 10 years 10 - 20 years 20 - 30 years > 30 years
Europe's power plants are ageing: half currentcapacity - mostly coal-fired - could be retired by 2030
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Share of Renewables inShare of Renewables inElectricity GenerationElectricity Generation
The role of non-hydro renewables is much greater in all OECD regions, especially Europe
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2000 2030Alternative
2000 2030Alternative
per c
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Non-hydro Hydro
US & Canada Europe Japan, Australia& New Zealand
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Capacity in EUCapacity in EU7 Major Utilities (2002)7 Major Utilities (2002)
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Rest of EuropeHome Country
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Capacity in EU15Capacity in EU15 7 Major Utilities (2002) 7 Major Utilities (2002)
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EdF
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Rest of EU
Sweden
Italy
UK
Germany
Home Country
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Developing CountriesDeveloping Countries
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Investment Investment vsvs.Saving Balance.Saving Balanceby Regionby Region
Foreign capital flow needs to meet the gap between domesticfinancial resources and investment in most of non-OECD regions.
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OECD TransitionEconomies
India Brazil Africa
% (R
atio
to G
DP)
Gross domestic savings Gross capital investment
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Size and Activity of FinancialSize and Activity of FinancialMarkets by RegionMarkets by Region
Financial markets in non-OECD regions aresmaller, less active,and less efficient.
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Liquid liabilities (size of banking sector)Stock market capitalization (size of stock market)Stock market value traded (activity of stock market)
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Investment Flows into Energy ProjectsInvestment Flows into Energy Projectswith Foreign Private Participationwith Foreign Private Participation
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US$
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Electricity Natural gas transmission and distribution
Sound macroeconomic management and legal/regulatory framework are needed to secure the availability of
foreign capital to energy projects.
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Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks
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SummarySummary
World electricity demand is set to growrapidly
Gas is likely to be the preferred fuel
Ageing: a key issue in OECD countries
Developing Countries: higher demandgrowth - scarce resources
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Surrounding IssuesSurrounding Issues
What are obstacles to investment?
Is investment climate changing?
What are the (new) risks introduced byliberalisation of electricity markets?
How do challenges vary across energymix / technology?
How will the capital markets beconvinced to invest in DevelopingCountries?
What role for governments?