World Energy Outlook 2012 · © OECD/IEA 2012 Japan: Coping Post Fukushima LNG Imports 5,149 6,149...
Transcript of World Energy Outlook 2012 · © OECD/IEA 2012 Japan: Coping Post Fukushima LNG Imports 5,149 6,149...
© OECD/IEA 2012
World Energy Outlook 2012: short, medium and longer term insights
Brisbane
April 2013
Ian Cronshaw
© OECD/IEA 2012
The context
Foundations of global energy system shifting
Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries
Retreat from nuclear in some others
Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency
All-time high oil prices acting as brake on global economy
Divergence in natural gas prices affecting Europe (with prices 5-times US levels) and Asia (8-times)
Symptoms of an unsustainable energy system persist
Fossil fuel subsidies up almost 30% to $523 billion in 2011, led by MENA
CO2 emissions at record high, while renewables industry under strain
Despite new international efforts, 1.3 billion people still lack electricity
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Growth in Global Energy Demand 2000-10
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Japan: Coping Post Fukushima LNG Imports
5,149
6,149
7,149
8,149
9,149
10,149
11,149
12,149
Millio
n C
ub
ic M
ete
rs
2006 - 2011 Range 2010 2011 2012
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Emerging economies steer energy markets
Share of global energy demand
Global energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035, underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1975 2010 2035
Middle East
India
China
OECD
Non-OECD Rest of non-OECD 6 030 Mtoe 12 380 Mtoe 16 730 Mtoe
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China—Driving Diversification
• 2011 4700 Twh, with 2015 6300 Twh
• New Five Year Plan sets ambitious goals for non coal energy
• Continues current 20% per annum growth in gas to 250 bcm by 2015, at least a third imported
• But slowdown in coal growth to only 2-4% per year looks less credible.
• It is now clear that China is exerting a major influence on global traded coal prices, and that influence will soon extend to gas
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Incremental coal demand in China & the rest of the world by major sector in the New Policies Scenario
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200 Industry*
Power generation
China Rest of world
1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2035
Mtc
e
China Rest of world
China Rest of world
China Rest of world
* Includes blast furnace, coke oven transformation, and own use.
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Share of major hard coal importers in global inter-regional trade in the New Policies Scenario
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
India
Japan European Union
China Korea
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A United States oil & gas transformation
US oil and gas production
The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications well beyond the United States
Unconventional gas
Conventional gas
Unconventional oil
Conventional oil
mboe/d
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
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Reductions in net oil imports in the United States in the New Policies Scenario, by source
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
mb
/d
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Demand-side efficiency
Biofuels use in transport
Natural gas use in transport
Increased oil supply
Reductions due to:
2011 net oil import level
Projected net imports
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Middle East oil to Asia: a new silk road
Middle East oil export by destination
By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North America’s emergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade
7
United States Japan & Korea Europe China India
mb/d 2000
2011
2035
1
2
3
4
5
6
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Different trends in oil & gas import dependency
While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries,
Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Oil imports
Gas Imports
United States
China India
European Union
Japan
2010
2035
20% Gas Exports
the United States swims against the tide
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Growing LNG enhances supply security & market flexibility
Projected LNG liquefaction capacity by country
Trade in natural gas between major regions doubles to over 1 tcm by 2035, with Australia becoming a leading LNG supplier
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020
Europe
Other Africa
Other Middle East
Russia
Americas
Algeria
Indonesia
Nigeria
Other Asia
Qatar
Australia
bcm
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Natural gas: towards a globalised market
Major global gas trade flows, 2010
Rising supplies of unconventional gas & LNG help to diversify trade flows, putting pressure on conventional gas suppliers & oil-linked pricing mechanisms
Major global gas trade flows, 2035
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Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity going unrealised
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Industry Transport Power generation
Buildings
Unrealised energy efficiency potential
Realised energy efficiency potential
Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped in the period to 2035
Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the New Policies Scenario
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The Efficient World Scenario: a blueprint for an efficient world
Economically viable efficiency measures can halve energy demand growth to 2035;
Total primary energy demand
12 000
13 000
14 000
15 000
16 000
17 000
18 000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Mtoe
New Policies Scenario
Efficient World Scenario
Reduction in 2035
Coal 1 350 Mtce
Oil 12.7 mb/d
Gas 680 bcm
Others 250 Mtoe
oil demand savings equal the current production of Russia & Norway
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Energy efficiency brings economic gains
In addition to cutting energy expenditures by an average of 20%, improved efficiency brings wider economic gains, particularly for India, China, the United States & Europe
Energy expenditure in 2035 compared with 2010
Trillion
Efficient World Scenario
New Policies Scenario Additional in the New Policies Scenario
-$0.3
$0
$0.3
$0.6
$0.9
$1.2
$1.5
China India European Union
United States
Japan
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Power generation
Industry
Transport
Other
Room to manoeuvre
The Efficient World Scenario delays carbon lock-in
Energy efficiency can delay “lock-in” of CO2 emissions permitted under a 2 °C trajectory – which is set to happen in 2017 – until 2022, buying five extra years
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Gt
2 °C trajectory
Lock-in of existing infrastructure
2017
Lock-in of infrastructure in New Policies Scenario in 2017
2022 35
Lock-in of infrastructure in Efficient World Scenario in 2022
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Foundations of energy system shifting
Policy makers face critical choices in reconciling energy, environmental & economic objectives
Changing outlook for energy production & use may redefine global economic & geopolitical balances
As climate change slips off policy radar, the “lock-in” point moves closer & the costs of inaction rise
The gains promised by energy efficiency are within reach & are essential to underpin a more secure & sustainable energy system