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The strengthening of economic activity is robust in the United States, but lags behind in the Euro Area. Not

withstanding the Q1 weakness, economic activity in high-income countries (where large negative output gaps per-sist), is expected to pick-up over the short-to-medium term as drags from fiscal consolidation and household and firm balance sheet adjustments wane, and private sector activity strengthens supported by improving sentiment and still loose monetary policy. In the United States Q2 this acceleration in economic activity is currently underway as there has been a pick-up in the pace of expansion of industrial production, consumer durables and capital good orders in Q2 relative to Q1. Further, compared to March levels, unemployment has declined to a post-crisis low and weekly unemployment claims are at an 8-year low. Forward looking business sentiment and consumer confidence indicators are also higher relative to where they were in Q2, thus pointing to continued robust real-side activity in Q3. Unlike the United States, the Euro Area—which recently exited a recession- continues to struggle for a broad-based recovery. Weighed down by weaknesses in France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Portugal, Euro Area industrial production rec-orded its first contraction in ten months in May (albeit mild), with consumer durables and capital good orders declining sharply. However, on a positive note, the unemployment rate continued its gradual downward slide. Further the Euro-pean Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator trended up to its highest level since mid-2011, and the Euro Area purchasing Managers Index climbed to a 3-month high in July, suggesting that a cyclical recovery in activity is already ongoing, even if uneven across member states. Going forward, the recent monetary measures announced by the European Central Bank should be supportive of real-side activity by keeping borrowing costs down and improving credit flows to the private sector. These developments are consistent with our expectations for an acceleration in eco-

nomic activity in high-income countries in H2 2014.

Recent data releases paint a mixed picture for real-side activity in developing countries. Unlike high-income

countries where there exist considerable slack, on average output gaps have closed in developing countries, alt-hough much heterogeneity exists across regions (e.g. significant negative output gaps exist in the Middle-East and

Developing Trends was prepared by the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) of the World Bank. The team is coordinated by Allen

Dennis (Overview), and is comprised of Tehmina Khan (High-income), Gerard Kambou (Industrial Production), Derek Chen (Business Sentiment),

Eung Ju Kim (High-income, Finance and Overview), John Baffes (Commodities) and Damir Cosic (Commodities), Thanh Nguyen (Statistical Annex),

and Kristina Cathrine Mercado (layout).

This note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group.

JULY 2014

-10.0

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Industrial production rebounds solidly in the United States, but lags behind in the Euro Area

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KAZ

BGR

MYS

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MEX

Divergent industrial production trends across developing countries between Q1 and Q2.

(Industrial production (IP) volumes, q/q annualized growth rates )

Q2 Industrial production growth, q/q %ch

Q1 Industrial production growth, q/q %ch

Acceleration in IP growth in Q2 

Deceleration in IP growth in Q2 

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North Africa, and Central and Eastern Europe). As a result, economic activity over the medium term is expected to be broadly in line with underlying potential. Most recent data releases however paints a mixed picture. Real side ac-tivity (proxied by industrial production) is rebounding in China (thanks to earlier stimulus measures), as well as in Malaysia, Vietnam, Mexico and India supported by stronger external demand (mainly strengthening U.S. imports). On the other hand, available data through May shows a weakening of industrial production in several middle income countries including Kazakhstan, Turkey, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Thailand, Bulgaria, and Indonesia. The driv-ers of this weakening are varied, however, in most cases slowing domestic demand triggered by earlier interest rate hikes and rising inflation, and subdued external demand from the Euro Area and China have been the main drivers. Further, in a number of cases unfavorable political developments (Thailand) and debilitating labor strikes have also contributed to the weakness in real side activity.

Commodity prices remain broadly stable. Energy prices, as measured by the World Bank energy index, were up 1 percent in 2014Q2 due mainly to an increase in crude oil prices (up 2.6 percent for the quarter) with geopolitical risks (Iraq and Ukraine) re-emerging as the main driver of oil prices in the quarter. However, after peaking at $111/bbl in late June, prices reversed course to $105/bbl by early July as production was not disrupted in Iraq and Libya announced reopening of export ports that have been shut for nearly a year. The World Bank metals price index declined by 1 per-cent (q/q) in 2014Q2 due to the coming on stream of earlier investments and weaker demand from China. Yet, the recent weakening in metals prices has not been broad-based. The bulk of the decline is accounted for by the steep drop in prices of iron ore (down 15 percent q/q) while base metals increased by 2 percent (q/q). The steep drop in iron ore prices for the second quarter in a row reflects expansion of low cost capacity in Australia and Brazil and weaker im-ports from China. Among other base metals prices of zinc, tin, aluminum, nickel increased by 2.1, 2.2, 5.3, and 26 percent respectively whereas lead and copper prices declined 0.2 and 3.3 percent respectively. Agricultural prices moved very little and in a mixed manner in 2014Q2. The overall agricultural price index is up 0.9 percent for the quar-ter bolstered by a 11% increase in beverage prices (due to drought in Brazil). Grain prices were up by less than a 1 percent increase, mainly due to a decline in wheat yields. On the other hand edible oils and meals fell by some 3 per-cent (soybean production to projected to reach record highs).

Gross capital flows to developing countries in June were robust. Not withstanding the ongoing U.S Fed taper-ing, monetary policy continues to be loose in high-income countries thus driving down bond yields. U.S ten-year treasuries are some 50 basis points lower than the start of the year. Further the recent monetary stimulus measures by the ECB is further driving down yields on Euro Area bonds. These lower yields, continue to incentivize carry trade to higher yielding assets, including those of developing countries. Indeed, gross capital flows to developing countries amounted to $63.1 billion in June, up sharply from $42.2 billion in the previous month and the $58.6 billion monthly average during January-March. The strong pick-up in June was largely due to a surge in syndicated bank lending - a reflection of large loans to corporates in East Asia and the Latin American regions. Both bond and equity flows were strong as well, helped by a surge in Mexico’s equity issuance and large bond issuance by borrowers in Europe and Central Asia (including Bulgaria and Turkey).

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

US economy is rebounding

Q1 was derailed more than initially thought by weather conditions, with GDP contracting by 1% (q/q saar), which will weigh on outturns for the year as a whole.

However, as the cyclical recovery has firmed, activity has rebounded. With household wealth boosted by stock markets that have repeatedly tested new highs, and by an ongoing recovery in house prices, consumer demand is slowly strengthening. Retail spending rose at a 4.4% (3m/3m saar) pace in April.

This in turn is boosting firm output and hiring. Weekly unemployment claims have fallen to the lowest level since 2006. Both service and manufacturing PMI indica-tors continue to indicate a solid pace of growth, while regional Fed surveys showing a strong pick up in the second half of the year in business investment, which has so far lagged the recovery.

A muted recovery in the Euro Area should be support-ed by the recent ECB stimulus

With inflation continuing to drift down and weakness in bank lending hampering the recovery underway, the ECB announced substantial policy easing, cutting its deposit rate to below zero, lowering its benchmark rate and announcing significant credit easing measures.

Despite growth remaining tepid, unemployment is begin-ning to inch down, and private consumption is also be-ginning to rise in the troubled periphery economies of Portugal and Spain.

The flash PMI composite output Index for the Euro Area increased to a 3-month high in July, suggesting a pick-up in real-side activity.

Business sentiment weakens in Japan in July.

Given the sharp acceleration in growth to 5.9% in Q1 annualized ahead of the sales tax hike in April, a similar payback can be expected in Q2. Japanese consumer and business sentiment in July slid down from June lev-els. Nonetheless, on average, business sentiment was higher in Q2 than it was in Q1. Further, the recently re-leased government preliminary blueprint of reforms on corporate income taxes, female labor force participation and government pension fund reforms, if implemented along with other needed structural reforms could help boost growth over the medium term.

Activity in the US strengthened in Q2 relative to the weakness observed in Q1. Robust gains were reported for industrial production, capital good and durable consumer good orders in and unem-ployment also dipped to its lowest post-crisis level. However in the Euro Area, industrial output was tepid, underlining the fragile nature of the recovery there. However, consumer and business sentiment is on the rise and the recently announced ECB measures could help ease credit, all of which should support the ongoing recovery. Sentiment indicators in Japan weakened in July.

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Industrial Production

Source: Datastream, World Bank

Manufacturing PMIs

Source: Markit Economics, World Bank

Inflation

Source: Datastream, World Bank

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

Led by the United States, G3 equities have been buoyant in recent months. Reflecting the easing of financial market tensions, low volatility, ample liquidity and expectations of growth prospects, U.S stock markets have steadily increased through July from the dip observed earlier in the year. Japa-nese stocks have also rebounded solidly in July sup-ported by better than expected real-side activity fol-lowing the introduction of the sales tax hike. Europe-an equities benefitted from the announced ECB measures in June, however in recent weeks they have underperformed U.S and Japan equities, hurt by concerns of a fragile recovery.

Lower yields in longer-dated U.S. and German government bonds led to the flattening of the yield curve. Yields on long-dated U.S. and German government securities—especially on 10-year and 30-year bonds—have fallen sharply since the end of last year, while shorter-dated bond yields remained broad-ly stable. The dynamic led to a significant flattening of the yield curve. However, robust employment data and rising inflation expectation in the U.S. have driven policy-sensitive short-term yields sharply higher in recent weeks. Compare with the U.S. yield move-ment, German bond yields have continued to move lower, with an acceleration since mid-June amid the European Central Bank’s unprecedented stimulus measures and a disappointing economic picture in the Euro Area. As a result of perceived divergence in growth and inflation prospects in the Euro Area and the United States, the yield spread between the U.S. and German 10-year bonds has reached its widest gap since June 1999.

Markets calm despite trouble at the second larg-est bank in Portugal. Banco Espiroto Santo, the only large Portuguese bank that did not receive capi-tal injection during the country’s 3 years bailout pro-gram, found itself exposed to escalating default risks of its parent holding company since early July. Market repercussions were initially significant in Portugal, with Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads increasing and the Portuguese stock-market losing value since the start of July. However, contagion effects were limited, as reflected in stable CDS, bond spreads and bank stock valuation in other euro-area economies. Fears of spiraling troubles were contained by the fact that the bank’s financial distress was unrelated to its specific operations, that capital buffers were available and fresh private money eventually injected (on July 23). The lack of contagion also reflected an overall climate of low risk aversion and continued search for yields, benefiting riskier asset classes.

Led by the United States, G3 equities have been buoyant in recent months. Lower yields in longer-dated U.S. and German government bonds led to the flattening of the yield curve. The yield spread between the U.S. and German 10-year bonds has reached its widest gap since June 1999. Despite trouble at second largest bank, financial markets remain calm thanks to adequate capital buffers, injection of pri-vate funds and a generally low risk aversion environment.

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G –3 stock markets

Source: Bloomberg, World Bank

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

DAX (Germany) S&P 500 (United States) TOPIX (Japan)

Index, January 2010 = 100

Changes in U.S. and German bond yields

Source: Bloomberg, World Bank

Yields on 10-year government bonds

Source: Bloomberg, World Bank

2

3

4

5

6

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Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14

Yield (percent)

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JULY 2014

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German

Yield (percent)

Gross capital flows to developing countries in June were robust. Gross capital flows to developing countries amounted to $63.1 billion in June, up sharply from $42.2 billion in the previous month and the $58.6 billion month-ly average during January-March. The strong pick-up in June was largely due to a surge in syndicated bank lend-ing - a reflection of large loans to corporates in East Asia and the Latin American regions. Both bond and equity flows were strong as well, helped by a surge in Mexico’s equity issuance and large bond issuance by borrowers in Europe and Central Asia (including Bulgaria and Tur-key). Notably, euro-denominated developing-country bond issuances are up sharply this year (by more than six times compared to a year ago) as countries take ad-vantage of lower borrowing costs in Europe.

Consistent with the easing of global financial market conditions, spreads on emerging market bonds, in-cluding those from Sub-Saharan Africa, have de-clined. Indeed since mid-February spreads on Sub-Saharan African sovereign bonds have declined be-tween 70 and 140 basis points. The favorable environ-ment has supported recent successful Eurobond issu-ances from both Kenya ($2bn in June) and Zambia ($500m in April). Cote D’Ivoire, Ghana and Senegal are also poised to tap into the international bond market. Nonetheless, with the strengthening of the U.S. econo-my, monetary policy tightening is projected to commence in 2015. This will raise borrowing costs in international capital markets. While debt-to-GDP ratios remain moder-ate for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, some economies have much higher debt ratios and face macroeconomic imbalances which could make them more vulnerable when financial market conditions tighten.

Five developing country central banks increased policy rates in July, outweighing rate cuts in other countries for the third month this year. Among these five countries, three (South Africa, Ghana and Ukraine) acted in response to continued price pressures linked to past currency depreciations, while policy rates were hiked in Egypt to anchor inflation expectations in ad-vance of an expected rise in fuel costs in August (due to a cut in fuel subsidies), and in Malaysia to remove policy accommodation after signs of a more self-sustained re-covery. In contrast, rate cuts were decided this month in Peru, Turkey and Hungary, reflecting weakening activity and more favorable global financing conditions. Central banks in Peru and especially in Turkey lowered rates despite above target. The room for monetary policy ac-commodation is expected to gradually diminish for most developing countries as the U.S. Federal Reserve moves closer to its own tightening cycle.

The strong rebound in capital flows to developing countries that resumed in March has continued through June. The strong pick-up in June was largely due to a surge in syndicated bank lending. Con-sistent with the easing of global financial market conditions, spreads on emerging market bonds, including those from Sub-Saharan Africa have declined. Nonetheless, countries in the region facing high debt ratios and weak macro imbalances remain vulnerable to the future tightening of monetary conditions in high-income economies. Five developing country central banks increased policy rates in July, outweighing rate cuts in other countries for the third month this year.

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Gross capital flows were strong in June

Sub-Saharan Africa Eurobond spreads decline

Source: World Bank and Bloomberg.

More developing countries tighten policy in July

Source: World Bank

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

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-13

-8

-3

2

7

12

17

Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14

Rate hikes

Rate cuts

Net changes

Number of policy rate changesacross developing countries

Industrial production (IP) growth was weak in May.

Global IP decelerated to an annualized 2.4 percent pace in May, weighed down by weak growth in both key high-income and developing countries.

High-income country IP growth slowed to 1.5 percent in May, weighed down by a mild contractions in in-dustrial production growth in both Japan and the Euro Area. This weakness was however offset by robust growth in the United States. Given the co-cyclicality of business cycles among high-income countries, the pick-up in activity in the United States bodes well for economic activity elsewhere in the high-income world.

Developing countries’ IP growth stabilized at 3.6 per-cent in May (3.7 percent in April). The acceleration in IP growth in China and India was however counterbal-anced by a further slowdown in growth from the rest of developing countries (IP grew 0.1 percent, slowing from a 1.6 percent growth in April).

China’s IP growth strengthened further in June.

China’s IP growth accelerated to 7.7 percent in June, supported by a rebound in its exports and earlier stim-ulus measures. Excluding China, IP contracted in the rest of East Asia and the Pacific, mainly reflecting contracting output in Thailand.

In developing Europe and Central Asia, IP growth also weakened in May. This weak growth reflects below trend growth in Turkey and the CIS region. Industrial output growth in the Central and Eastern Europe sub-region was above trend in May.

In Latin America and Caribbean, industrial production remained steady (less than one percent growth). Weakness in Argentina and Brazil (due to weak do-mestic demand) was offset by strengthening output in Mexico, whose exports to the US is rebounding.

IP growth rebounds in the Middle East and North Africa, but contracted in South Asia (excluding In-dia), and Sub-Saharan Africa.

For a third successive month, IP growth in the MENA continued in May thanks to a solid rebound in Egypt, reflecting improvements in political landscape.

In South Asia, India’s IP growth accelerated thanks to a recovery in exports, however for the rest the region industrial production growth decelerated.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, industrial production contract-ed sharply in South Africa as labor strikes led to a sharp contraction in mining production and manufac-turing output continued to fall, bringing IP growth in the region sharply down.

Reflecting a cyclical downturn in activity, global industrial production (IP) grew at the slowest pace for the year in May, with a deceleration across key high-income countries (Japan and Euro Area) and key developing regions (Latin America and Caribbean, East Asia (excluding China) and Sub-Saharan Africa). On a positive note, however, a nascent cyclical recovery was observed in a number of economies (United States, China and India). The strengthening of business sentiment in June (see next page) suggest a near-term rebound in global industrial production.

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Source: World Bank

Regional IP growth: MENA, SAS, SSA

Global IP growth

Source: World Bank

Regional IP growth: EAP, ECA, LAC

Source: World Bank

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

Notwithstanding the weakening of industrial produc-tion, global business sentiment improved.

For a third consecutive month, global manufacturing sentiment improved in June, this contrast with the weaker real-side data (industrial production) observed through May. Since the global purchasing manager’s index (measure of business sentiment) has a forward looking aspect to it, it suggest that there is likely to be a near-term cyclical recovery in global production.

Indeed, in the United States, where business senti-ment has rebounded strongly, the rebound in real-side activity is already evident in the pick-up in indus-trial production, imports, capital good orders and em-ployment numbers.

Further, in Japan, following the weakening of busi-ness sentiment in the aftermath of the recent sales tax, business sentiment has also picked up in the past two months, crossing the expansion threshold in June. Similarly initial sentiment readings for the Euro Area point to a pick-up in business sentiment.

Overall, sentiment improved for developing countries.

In June, business sentiment improved for developing countries as an aggregate, exceeding the 50-mark signaling expanding activity for the first time in six months.

Yet significant differences exist among developing countries, largely reflecting the differences in their domestic demand conditions and in some cases ex-ogenous factors.

Performance remains mixed across developing coun-tries.

Supported by earlier stimulus measures as well as a pick-up in its exports, business sentiment in China expanded for the first time this year in June, notwith-standing the ongoing correction in the country’s prop-erty market.

Other developing economies to register a pick-up in sentiment include Egypt (thanks to an improving politi-cal situation) and India (supported by external de-mand).

Sentiment remained stable, but signaling expansion in Mexico (supported by increase in exports to the US), Vietnam, Hungary and Indonesia.

On the other hand, a slowdown in domestic demand, triggered in some cases by interest rate hikes, sharp depreciations and rising inflation weakened business sentiment in Turkey, Brazil and South Africa (also labor strikes).

Although, industrial production weakened in May, global business sentiment strengthened in June, suggest-ing a cyclical recovery in industrial production is likely to take hold in the coming months. Among high-income economies, sentiment is strongest in the United States, but has also picked up in Japan and the Euro Area. Sentiment among developing regions however remains heterogeneous.

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Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)

Source: World Bank and Markit.

PMI Indexes—Emerging Economies 1

Source: World Bank and Markit

Source: World Bank and Markit

PMI Indexes—Emerging Economies 2

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

Imports data suggest that global trade contracted for a second month running.

The post-crisis recovery in global trade has, in gen-eral been very subdued, however, until April 2014 it had managed to sustain ten months of continued expansion. However after a cyclical uptick which peaked in February global trade volumes has decel-erated, contracting in both April and May.

Whether the anticipated global recovery has begun or not however remains in question as due to data deficiencies, aggregating data using imports points to a continued contraction, whereas using the ex-ports data shows that a cyclical recovery in global trade has already commenced.

Nonetheless, even taking only the weaker imports data into account, it the aggregate picture hides elements of a nascent recovery that is occurring in some countries most noticeably the United States. To the extent that a pick-up in high-income econom-ic activity is expected in H2 2014 this bodes well for near-term global trade prospects, including from developing countries.

Import data shows a contraction in imports across most developing regions

Quarterly import growth contracted in the East Asia region, weighed down by China, as well as in Thai-land and Indonesia. Similarly in the Latin America region, weak import demand in Brazil, the largest economy in the region where a domestic adjustment process is underway weighed down on the region’s imports.

Import demand eased in developing Europe and Cen-tral Asia region reflecting earlier currency devalua-tions in some of its economies and import disruptions related to the Ukraine situation.

However, in South Asia, import demand is robust thanks to a rebound in India’s imports

Data lags behind in Sub Saharan Africa and the Mid-dle East.

In South Africa, import demand continued to show double digit contraction through May reflecting weaker currency, higher interest rates, and depressed eco-nomic activity.

In the Middle East and North Africa, data remains lag-ging, however in Egypt, where more recent data is avail-able a recovery in imports was observed for May, thanks to an improving political situation.

Imports data suggest that global trade was subdued in May, continuing a trend of weakness ob-served in April. Nonetheless, this obscures signs of a nascent pick-up in a number of key mar-kets. Among developing countries, domestic demand adjustments related to policy tightening and currency depreciation and on-going political tensions in some developing economies con-tributed to the slow down in their import demand.

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Source: Datastream, World Bank

Regional Import Volumes: MENA, SAS, SSA

Regional Import Volumes: EAP, ECA, LAC

Source: Datastream, World Bank

Global Import Volumes

Source: Haver, World Bank

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

Nascent recovery commences for developing coun-try exports

Following the recovery among some key trading partners (in particular U.S imports), developing country exports, which had been subdued since March, showed signs of a pick-up in activity, led by China, India and Brazil.

Given the significance of South-South trade, the pick-up in exports in these large economies bodes well for trade from other developing countries, even if the recovery has not taken hold in all developing regions.

Export performance in developing regions shows some divergence.

Excluding China, exports from East Asia has also picked up although still well below trend. Besides, weak global demand, domestic factors, such as politi-cal tensions in Thailand have contributed to the weak recovery. Nonetheless, with exports of manufacturing goods likely to rebound the most in a recovery, East Asian economies are likely to witness the strongest rebound in a cyclical recovery, due to the intensive-ness of manufactured goods in their exports.

Exports contracted in Europe and Central Asia. This reflects a number of contributory factors: weakness in the Euro Area real-side activity weighing down ex-ports from the Central and Eastern Europe region, weakness in Russia weighing exports elsewhere in the region, and the ongoing decline in metal and min-eral prices.

Exports from Latin America and the Caribbean show signs of a rebound led by Mexico reflecting stronger demand from the US; weaker currencies and a pick-up in activity in China supporting exports from Brazil and Argentina.

Exports are projected to expand supported by firm-ing demand in high-income countries.

Despite a bumpy start of the year, export growth should continue to be supported by rising demand from high income economies and an economic re-bound in China (stimulus supported).

If the strengthening of high-income country activity is to persist, this should provide further support to a pick-up in developing country exports, especially in those countries where export growth continues to lag be-hind.

Developing country exports data suggest a nascent cyclical recovery in exports has begun to take hold, led by China. Export performance across regions has however diverged due to varying re-sons. With a strengthening of high-income country activity expected to occur in the H2 2014, this should provide further support to a pick-up in developing country exports. For developing economies undergoing domestic demand slowdowns, tailwinds from rising exports should help partially mitigate the weakness in their domestic economies.

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Global Export Volumes

Source: Haver, World Bank

Regional Export Volumes: EAP, ECA, LAC

Source: Datastream, World Bank

Source: Datastream, World Bank

Export volumes for selected economies

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

Crude oil prices spiked in June as insurgents gained ground in Iraq, but reversed course as it became clear that southern oil fields would not be affected.

Prices averaged $108/bbl, up 2.5% (m/m) in on secu-rity concerns stemming from Iraq. After peaking at $111/bbl in late June, prices reversed course to $103/bbl by early July as production was not disrupted in Iraq and Libya reopened ports that have been shut for nearly a year.

Global oil supplies were unchanged at 92.6 mb/d in June, but 1mb/d higher than year ago. Non-OPEC growth (1.7 mb/d y/y) more than compensated for declines in OPEC output (-0.8 mb/d y/y).

The gap between Brent and WTI narrowed to US$6.4 bbl in May on sharply lower stocks at Cushing, OK (delivery point for WTI) which are now at a staggering 25 mb below year-ago levels.

Metal prices declined in June dragged down by fall-ing iron ore prices.

Metals prices fell 0.6% (m/m) in June, down five of the last six months. The declines were led by iron ore (down 8% m/m) on oversupply of low cost ore from Australia and Brazil. Aluminum was up 5% (m/m) as production cuts are taking an effect.

However, prices started to climb mid-June and have continued into early July on improving macroeconom-ic data from China.

Global stocks of metals at major exchanges have declined (down 3% m/m in June), and are still elevat-ed by historical standards. Copper (-70% y/y), zinc, lead and tin stocks are down (-30% y/y), while alumi-num stocks are flat and nickel is up (+52% y/y).

Precious metals prices were flat in June as geopoliti-cal risks cancelled out better macro data.

Precious metals have been on the decline since early 2012, and prices reversed their previous two month gains by falling 1% (m/m) on improving macroeco-nomic conditions in advanced economies and benign inflationary environment.

Reduced demand for safe-heaven investments and expectations of changes in US monetary policy have triggered outflows out of exchange-traded funds, lead-ing to price declines.

In June, holdings of gold by exchange traded funds (ETFs) fell 1.6% (m/m), a four-year low. This followed two straight months of gains, the first increases since 2012.

Crude oil prices spiked in June as insurgents gained ground in Iraq, but later reversed course as it became clear that southern oil fields would remain unaffected. Prices of industrial metals de-clined in June dragged down by falling iron ore prices. Precious metals did not change much dur-ing June as geopolitical risks and improving economic conditions, particularly in the US, offset each other.

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Crude Oil Prices

Source: Bloomberg, World Bank

Metals Prices

Source: Bloomberg, World Bank

Precious Metals Prices

Source: Bloomberg, World Bank

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

In its July global assessment for the 2014/15 crop year, USDA maintained the improved supply condi-tions for maize and rice—less so for wheat.

Maize and rice are set for a record production at 980 and 479 million tons and stock-to-use (S/U) ratios of 19.5 and 22.7% for 2014/15. The outlook for wheat remains relatively tight, with production expected to decline by 1.3%(y/y). However, the S/U ratio is ex-pected to increase marginally due to lower feed use. Declines in wheat output are expected to take place in the United States, Australia and Canada due to lower yields. Increases in Argentina, Mexico, and Paraguay. Lower maize production in Ukraine is expected to be offset by increases in Argentina and Mexico.

The rice market continues to be well-supplied. In addi-tion to improved production prospects, stocks are at high levels, especially in Thailand and India.

Grain prices eased following USDA’s July outlook assessment for 2014/15.

Wheat prices declined more than 8 percent in June while the losses have been extended well into July following the USDA’s assessment. Yet, price risks are on the upside in view of the El Nino threat and the fact that the market is not as well supplied as other grains.

Maize prices declined 7% in June and dropped even further throughout the first half of July following USDA’s 2014/25 assessment. Overall, the global maize market is well-supplied.

Rice prices gained moderately in June, up 2 percent since May. Yet, the rice market is well supplied as the Thai government stocks are weighing heavily on the market. However, if 2014 becomes an El Nino year, rice will be exposed to upside price risks.

Coffee (Arabica) prices eased but still elevated.

Arabica prices declined 8% in July but they are still , up 45% since higher than a year ago. Robusta prices did not change much. Dry and hot weather conditions in Brazil—world’s largest coffee supplier—have taken a toll on Arabica output. The global coffee market is expected to incur a 1.5 million-bag deficit instead of an expected surplus.

Separately, the oil and meal price index declined 3% in July, led by a declines in palm oil prices and the soybean complex, about 4% each. Exception is groundnut oil prices, which lost almost 10 percent on June. The weakening in soybean prices since March has been aided by record plantings in the US and, to a lesser extent, expected good crop in South Ameri-ca.

Weather concerns (often linked to likely El Niño) induced price increases in some grains earlier in the year but recently prices have weakened as supplies for the upcoming, 2014/15, season are deemed adequate to keep stocks at reasonable levels. Agricultural prices are expected to decline slightly in 2015. The U.S. Department of Agriculture kept largely unchanged the 2014/15 global agricultural commodity outlook for the 2014/15 season.

Co

mm

od

itie

s ll

Stock-to-use ratios

Source: US Department of Agriculture (July 2014)

Maize and wheat prices

Source: World Bank

Coffee prices

Source: World Bank

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Maize

Wheat 

Rice

Weigh ts Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4

2 0 0 0 1 9 9 9 -0 9 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

World 1 0 0 .0 2 .2 5 .2 3 .0 2 .6 6 .2 2 .6 5 .3 3 .6 0 .4 0 .8 0 .1 -0 .2 1 .0

High - in come cou n tries 7 7 .2 0 .4 3 .5 0 .9 0 .5 7 .4 0 .9 4 .5 3 .5 0 .4 1 .0 0 .1 -0 .2 1 .0

Industrial countries 72.7 0.2 2.7 0.4 0.5 8.0 -0.5 4.8 4.8 0.5 1.4 -0.1 -0.2 1.1

United States 25.1 0.3 3.4 3.8 2.9 3.2 1.4 6.0 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 -0.4

Japan 17.3 -1.0 -2.7 0.7 -1.0 15.0 -0.8 8.7 10.4 0.9 3.4 -2.4 1.4 -1.0

Euro Area 22.9 0.0 4.2 -2.9 -1.0 11.2 -2.5 1.6 3.2 0.7 2.2 -0.4 -2.1 4.1

United Kingdom 4.1 -1.0 1.8 -1.6 -0.7 8.2 0.4 3.3 6.0 2.6 2.1 -1.8 0.5 2.4

Other high income 4.5 0.2 2.7 0.4 0.5 8.0 -0.5 4.8 4.8 .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 0.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Singapore 0.4 5.6 7.6 0.4 1.6 25.9 8.6 9.0 -1.9 0.6 -2.9 1.3 2.2 -0.7

Taiwan (China) 1.1 3.8 4.8 -0.2 0.4 -5.2 6.9 9.3 1.2 2.0 -1.4 2.4 -3.7 2.3

Dev elopin g cou n tries 2 2 .8 6 .5 8 .0 6 .3 5 .5 4 .6 5 .0 6 .3 3 .9 0 .3 0 .5 0 .3 -0 .1 1 .0

Eas t As ia an d Pacific 8 .7 1 0 .5 1 1 .4 9 .1 8 .9 4 .5 1 1 .1 1 1 .6 3 .6 0 .8 -0 .3 0 .6 0 .3 0 .6

China 6.3 13.7 13.7 10.0 9.7 6.0 12.3 11.4 5.0 0.6 -0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3

Indonesia 0.9 3.4 4.0 4.1 6.0 -4.4 1.2 10.3 7.5 1.3 0.3 0.7 -0.1 -0.2

Thailand 0.6 8.6 -8.7 2.5 -3.3 -20.6 -5.9 15.3 -13.7 2.2 -2.5 0.1 -6.7 2.9

Malaysia 0.5 6.1 5.7 5.3 4.2 14.3 8.9 8.3 -2.2 -0.4 -1.3 2.5 -2.4 2.2

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 3 .2 . . 1 4 .9 8 .3 2 .2 1 .4 1 .9 7 .0 1 1 .2 0 .5 1 .4 0 .9 0 .5 0 .9

Russian Federation 1.0 5.9 8.3 5.3 0.5 3.8 7.2 9.7 -9.6 -3.9 -3.9 3.7 0.5 0.9

Turkey 0.5 .. 9.6 2.5 3.4 4.2 4.9 4.0 6.3 0.1 1.1 -0.3 -0.3 1.0

Poland 0.6 6.3 6.9 1.3 2.3 6.1 9.4 0.9 3.8 -2.9 5.2 -0.9 -0.5 3.0

Czech Republic 0.2 3.6 7.7 -0.6 0.7 4.9 23.6 -2.2 10.5 -0.7 3.6 0.6 0.4 3.1

L atin America an d Caribbean 6 .2 1 .8 2 .5 -0 .1 1 .1 1 1 .9 -4 .0 -5 .3 1 .2 -2 .2 2 .7 0 .4 -2 .5 2 .0

Brazil 1.8 - 0.4 -2.6 2.9 15.9 -5.8 -9.3 2.4 -4.5 5.2 0.8 -4.7 2.8

Mexico 1.7 1.1 3.5 2.6 -0.6 -3.0 1.9 0.5 3.1 -0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.6

Argentina 0.8 2.9 6.7 -1.1 -0.2 6.6 -6.8 -8.0 -3.6 -0.5 2.7 -1.6 -1.1 1.7

Colombia 0.3 1.9 4.9 -0.3 -1.2 20.0 -0.7 -0.3 1.8 1.5 0.3 1.1 -2.0 3.0

Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 .9 2 .3 -9 .3 5 .7 -7 .8 2 .0 -3 1 .4 -1 3 .5 7 .3 2 .0 3 .3 -3 .1 -0 .3 0 .9

Saudi Arabia 1.2 0.0 12.4 5.7 -1.5 12.6 19.7 -5.3 1.8 2.7 -0.5 -0.2 -1.7 0.0

Iran 0.4 -0.3 0.2 -20.2 -10.0 -1.9 2.1 -1.3 8.9 0.0 1.3 0.1 0.7 -0.6

Egypt 0.4 .. -6.7 4.9 -7.7 -23.8 -41.0 2.8 57.2 3.7 9.5 -4.1 1.0 2.6

Algeria .. 4.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 7.7 -8.8 8.2 -24.8 0.7 -2.0 -11.5 5.6 0.1

Sou th As ia 1 .6 7 .3 5 .4 1 .3 1 .5 -8 .0 8 .8 -2 .9 4 .2 0 .5 1 .3 -1 .8 0 .9 2 .1

India 1.3 7.5 4.8 0.7 0.5 -10.5 9.9 -4.8 4.7 0.0 1.9 -1.9 1.1 2.1

Pakistan 0.2 5.8 2.7 1.8 6.2 -0.7 8.9 6.0 -13.3 6.3 -5.5 -2.4 -1.2 ..

Bangladesh 0.1 7.5 17.0 9.3 9.7 16.1 -0.4 3.6 .. -0.2 .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka 0.0 .. 8.1 -0.3 1.0 -3.0 1.2 17.9 .. 2.3 -1.1 1.6 .. ..

Su b-Sah aran Africa 1 .2 0 .9 3 .4 3 .5 0 .9 9 .2 -7 .6 9 .9 -3 .7 0 .7 0 .6 -2 .2 -1 .2 2 .8

South Africa 0.4 0.8 2.8 2.3 1.3 10.4 -9.1 10.1 -3.1 0.8 0.8 -2.1 -1.1 3.1

Nigeria 0.3 - .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD 75.9 0.2 2.9 0.5 0.5 7.4 -0.2 4.5 4.8 0.5 1.4 -0.1 -0.2 1.1

Developing excl. China 16.6 2.9 3.2 2.8 1.3 3.1 -2.4 0.3 2.4 -0.1 1.2 -0.1 -1.2 1.8

Developing oil exporters 2.9 - 1.8 3.0 0.3 5.9 -6.1 0.9 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0.5 0.5

Dev. non-oil exporters 19.9 8.7 10.0 7.2 7.0 4.2 8.1 7.6 4.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change over

previous month a/)

a In general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites).

Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a

major oil producer.

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

Weigh ts Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4

2 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May Ju n

World 1 0 0 .0 4 .7 3 .0 2 .7 3 .5 4 .3 4 .7 3 .4 0 .3 0 .2 0 .2 0 .0 . .

High - in come cou n tries 7 7 .2 2 .7 0 .8 0 .6 2 .7 3 .3 3 .7 3 .1 0 .2 0 .2 -0 .1 -0 .3 . .

Industrial countries 72.7 2.1 0.4 0.5 2.6 2.6 4.2 3.9 0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 ..

United States 25.1 3.3 3.8 2.9 1.9 2.5 4.9 3.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.5 0.2

Japan 17.3 -2.7 0.1 -0.6 6.1 6.7 7.6 10.7 -1.7 0.6 -2.8 0.6 ..

Euro Area 22.9 3.3 -2.6 -0.8 2.6 0.4 2.2 0.7 0.2 -0.5 1.0 -1.1 ..

United Kingdom 4.1 -1.2 -2.4 -0.4 2.5 2.7 1.8 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.3 -0.7 ..

Other high income 4.5 2.1 0.4 0.5 2.6 2.6 4.2 3.9 .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 0.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Singapore 0.4 8.0 0.2 1.6 29.4 -5.2 16.1 2.3 6.8 5.8 -4.0 -5.7 ..

Taiwan (China) 1.1 4.5 -0.3 0.4 -4.2 6.1 8.0 1.4 2.5 -3.5 2.6 0.9 2.6

Dev elopin g cou n tries 2 2 .8 7 .9 6 .3 5 .7 4 .6 5 .9 6 .4 3 .8 0 .4 0 .2 0 .6 0 .4 . .

Eas t As ia an d Pacific 8 .7 1 1 .6 9 .2 9 .0 4 .9 1 1 .2 1 0 .6 4 .2 0 .7 0 .5 0 .6 0 .5 0 .9

China 6.3 13.7 10.0 9.7 6.3 12.3 11.1 5.0 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.9

Indonesia 0.9 4.0 4.1 6.0 -3.8 2.8 7.5 8.8 1.2 -0.2 0.3 -1.7 ..

Thailand 0.6 -8.5 2.1 -3.1 -11.5 -7.9 -4.0 -4.9 -0.4 -2.8 1.2 1.1 ..

Malaysia 0.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 3 .2 1 3 .1 9 .1 2 .3 2 .0 7 .2 3 .2 6 .4 -0 .2 0 .2 0 .3 -0 .2 . .

Russian Federation 1.0 5.0 3.3 0.5 2.9 2.3 3.5 -2.9 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.1 -0.7

Turkey 0.5 9.6 2.5 3.4 5.1 4.7 3.2 5.8 -0.4 -0.3 0.9 -1.0 ..

Poland 0.6 7.1 1.4 2.4 9.1 8.8 3.4 2.5 -0.9 0.3 0.7 -1.6 0.4

Czech Republic 0.2 5.9 -0.8 0.1 1.2 10.7 7.9 5.0 1.5 0.4 0.9 -1.5 ..

L atin America an d Caribbean 6 .2 2 .6 -0 .1 1 .0 8 .6 -2 .2 -4 .3 0 .0 0 .1 -0 .4 0 .1 -0 .3 . .

Brazil 1.8 0.5 -2.7 2.2 7.7 -1.4 -7.0 -0.7 0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 ..

Mexico 1.7 3.5 2.6 -0.6 -2.8 1.9 0.4 2.8 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.1 ..

Argentina 0.8 6.7 -1.2 -0.3 2.9 -6.5 -8.3 -1.2 -0.2 -1.6 0.7 -0.2 ..

Colombia 0.3 4.9 -0.3 -1.2 20.0 -0.7 -0.3 1.8 1.1 -2.0 3.0 .. ..

Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 .9 -1 0 .2 6 .4 -8 .0 -0 .4 -3 2 .5 -1 5 .8 1 3 .8 -0 .5 -1 .6 0 .7 . . . .

Saudi Arabia 1.2 12.4 5.7 -1.5 12.6 19.7 -5.3 1.8 -0.2 -1.7 0.0 .. ..

Iran 0.4 0.2 -20.2 -10.0 -1.9 2.1 -1.3 8.9 0.1 0.7 -0.6 .. ..

Egypt 0.4 -6.7 4.9 -7.7 -25.5 -40.2 2.8 55.7 -5.6 2.2 2.5 5.9 ..

Algeria .. -2.5 1.4 -0.5 0.4 -12.3 1.8 -11.6 -1.9 -0.1 -0.5 .. ..

Sou th As ia 1 .6 5 .4 1 .1 1 .5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

India 1.3 4.8 0.5 0.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Pakistan 0.2 2.7 1.8 6.0 0.3 9.5 5.5 -9.0 -1.0 -1.1 2.4 -0.7 ..

Bangladesh 0.1 17.1 9.3 8.1 -1.5 21.9 3.4 1.2 -1.4 -2.5 .. .. ..

Sri Lanka 0.0 8.1 -0.3 1.1 -2.5 0.9 18.2 2.0 1.8 -0.2 .. .. ..

Su b-Sah aran Africa 1 .2 3 .3 3 .5 0 .9 1 1 .1 -7 .2 1 0 .4 -5 .9 -2 .5 -2 .0 3 .5 -3 .3 . .

South Africa 0.4 2.8 2.3 1.3 12.4 -8.7 10.6 -5.4 -2.5 -2.0 3.7 -3.3 ..

Nigeria 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD 75.9 2.3 0.6 0.6 2.3 2.7 3.9 3.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.4 ..

Developing excl. China 16.6 2.8 2.7 1.2 2.2 -2.3 -1.0 1.9 0.1 -0.7 0.7 -0.4 ..

Developing oil exporters 2.9 1.3 2.9 0.2 5.3 -5.6 -2.3 3.7 0.7 -0.6 0.6 -0.7 ..

Dev. non-oil exporters 19.9 9.9 7.2 7.2 4.4 9.0 8.5 3.8 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. ..

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent

change over previous month a/)

a In general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and

utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output,

if the country is a major oil producer.

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4

1 9 9 9 -0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May Ju n

Real GDP

High - in come cou n tries 2 .1 3 .1 2 .0 1 .5 1 .3 2 .9 2 .5 2 .6 -0 .3 . . . . . . . . . .

Industrial countries 1.9 2.9 1.8 0.0 0.0 2.9 2.5 2.5 -0.3 .. .. .. .. ..

United States 2.1 2.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 2.5 4.1 2.6 -2.9 .. .. .. .. ..

Japan 0.5 4.7 -0.4 0.0 0.0 2.9 1.3 0.3 6.7 .. .. .. .. ..

Euro Area 1.6 2.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 .. .. .. .. ..

United Kingdom 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.0 0.0 2.7 3.4 2.6 3.3 .. .. .. .. ..

Other high income 4.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) .. 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 .. .. .. .. ..

Singapore 5.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 .. .. .. .. ..

Taiwan (China) 3.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 .. .. .. .. ..

Real merch an dis e imports

High - in come cou n tries 4.1 15.0 8.4 5.1 1.4 -7.8 33.7 -6.3 11.8 -5.3 -2.7 -3.3 3.1 ..

Industrial countries 3.4 10.5 4.0 0.1 0.8 4.2 3.4 3.9 3.7 -2.1 -0.1 2.1 -2.3 ..

United States 3.0 14.9 4.1 2.9 0.7 5.1 5.9 5.2 -5.3 -1.4 0.1 5.7 -3.5 ..

Japan 2.3 10.5 4.3 4.2 0.2 11.2 -7.5 8.5 27.7 -4.3 8.4 -9.0 -2.7 ..

Euro Area 10.4 3.2 -3.4 -0.5 2.5 4.7 -4.8 4.6 0.1 0.4 1.2 .. ..

United Kingdom 3.1 10.8 0.5 3.0 0.4 12.0 0.5 -7.9 -2.8 -2.3 3.0 0.1 1.5 ..

Other high income 3.4 10.5 4.0 0.1 0.8 4.2 3.4 3.9 3.7 -7.5 -4.5 -7.3 7.5 ..

Hong Kong (China) 3.0 17.4 3.9 0.7 2.6 -0.9 4.3 14.8 -15.4 -0.6 4.6 -0.4 -0.5 ..

Singapore 2.3 17.9 3.6 3.8 1.0 7.2 16.0 -6.9 13.2 4.1 0.6 0.1 -5.2 -2.9

Taiwan (China) 29.2 -2.7 -2.0 4.9 -15.5 2.5 20.8 3.2 1.2 5.7 -3.6 -11.3 17.8

I mport Prices

High - in come cou n tries 2.6 5.2 11.4 -1.6 -1.3 -3.9 1.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 ..

Industrial countries 3.2 5.7 12.8 -2.4 -1.0 -6.6 4.0 1.6 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.9 ..

United States 2.4 6.9 10.9 0.3 -1.1 -5.6 1.7 -2.1 2.2 0.9 -0.2 -0.5 0.4 0.6

Japan 4.7 14.2 18.2 -0.5 -6.3 -17.4 10.8 7.2 -12.5 -1.1 -1.3 -0.7 -0.1 1.9

Euro Area 5.2 15.6 -2.8 0.6 -9.1 3.3 10.9 3.1 0.5 0.2 -1.6 .. ..

United Kingdom 1.6 4.4 13.1 -1.5 -0.9 -8.2 6.6 12.8 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 0.7 0.7 -4.0

Other high income 3.2 5.7 12.8 -2.4 -1.0 -6.6 4.0 1.6 -0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 ..

Hong Kong (China) 2.4 6.3 7.8 3.7 0.9 -0.6 2.6 4.8 1.9 0.8 -0.7 0.0 -0.2 -1.6

Singapore 4.7 7.4 13.5 0.3 -2.9 -7.9 1.6 4.9 -9.6 0.5 -1.4 1.2 1.4 0.2

Taiwan (China) 12.2 15.3 -1.9 -4.9 -13.0 -1.3 4.3 -4.3 -0.1 -1.4 0.1 1.0 0.2

Real effectiv e ex ch an ge rates a

Euro Area .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United States -0.9 -3.9 -4.9 3.0 1.1 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 0.0 -0.5 -0.6 0.0 ..

Japan -0.2 1.2 1.7 -1.2 -20.1 -21.3 -22.1 -19.9 -10.2 1.5 -0.6 1.1 0.9 ..

United Kingdom -1.4 3.6 1.5 5.2 -1.0 -1.9 -2.6 0.5 7.0 0.3 -0.1 0.7 1.6 ..

Canada 1.8 10.2 2.0 -0.3 -3.3 -1.6 -4.5 -5.8 -8.8 -0.9 -0.6 0.9 0.1 ..

Hong Kong (China) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Korea, Rep. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Singapore -0.7 3.4 5.5 4.6 2.7 2.9 1.0 1.2 -0.7 0.1 -0.7 0.4 0.1 ..

Taiwan (China) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Switzerland 0.1 5.8 9.8 -3.1 -1.9 -2.8 -1.3 -0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 -0.5 0.2 ..

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates

except monthly figures, which are m/m change)

a/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period

Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4

1 9 9 9 -0 8 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Policy Rates

High - in come cou n tries

Industrial countries

United States 3.44 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Japan 0.33 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

Euro Area .. 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

United Kingdom 4.80 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Ten year bon d

United States 4.70 3.24 3.20 2.77 1.78 0.70 0.72 0.76 0.64 0.63 2.90 2.85 2.70 2.72 2.69 2.57

Japan 1.49 1.34 1.17 1.12 0.85 2.76 2.87 3.20 3.21 3.06 0.67 0.68 0.60 0.60 0.62 0.60

Euro Area .. 4.03 3.79 4.31 3.05 2.02 1.93 2.74 2.79 2.78 3.31 3.21 3.09 2.89 2.61 ..

United Kingdom 4.77 3.66 3.58 3.06 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.93 2.87 2.75 2.72 2.68 2.63

Spreads (Bas is poin ts ) b ,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries . . 2 9 6 3 2 3 3 2 9 3 0 5 2 6 9 2 9 7 3 3 1 3 2 4 3 2 5 3 2 1 3 2 4 3 3 8 3 1 5 2 9 3 2 8 5

Eas t As ia an d Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

China 82 77 193 218 162 146 167 173 162 163 152 160 169 159 151 148

Indonesia .. 218 225 228 260 197 230 317 298 298 305 318 307 270 267 243

Phillippines .. 206 200 177 153 138 150 173 153 143 142 146 150 133 130 123

Malaysia 129 140 145 152 134 112 133 151 141 119 139 136 122 100 96 101

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Russian Federation 262 229 259 255 206 177 203 225 217 255 217 219 241 304 302 312

Turkey 404 221 260 281 239 195 208 275 277 308 291 314 307 303 256 224

Poland 99 156 210 192 135 121 133 148 137 119 130 120 121 116 107 106

Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

L atin America an d Caribbean 5 2 2 3 4 5 3 5 3 3 4 5 3 4 0 3 0 3 3 3 4 3 6 4 3 6 1 3 7 2 3 6 0 3 7 2 3 8 9 3 5 4 3 2 5 3 1 9

Brazil 551 202 195 183 209 162 197 237 240 251 245 255 258 239 224 214

Mexico 206 187 186 188 189 167 183 204 201 193 192 196 196 188 178 173

Argentina 2920 690 687 989 1067 1127 1200 1092 850 925 804 927 970 880 788 782

Colombia 370 189 168 148 158 129 149 178 177 182 177 182 188 177 162 155

Middle Eas t an d North Africa . . 3 4 6 3 6 9 4 5 5 4 3 9 4 1 5 4 6 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 1 4 4 1 6 4 1 6 4 2 1 4 0 5 3 9 2 3 8 6

Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt .. 173 371 502 565 509 623 622 506 403 427 403 381 369 369 ..

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sou th As ia d . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Pakistan .. 624 922 1067 734 903 753 666 612 530 578 546 466 507 461 ..

Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. 369 358 414 406 352 383 441 449 398 442 404 348 351 339 ..

Su b-Sah aran Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 7 0 2 4 1 2 1 9 2 0 7 . .

South Africa 172 167 195 206 235 190 213 272 265 258 262 .. .. .. .. ..

Nigeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Gros s in flow s e

Dev elopin g cou n tries . . 4 4 7 4 0 3 4 5 8 5 5 8 1 3 7 .2 1 5 9 .4 1 2 3 .3 1 3 7 .9 1 4 0 .7 4 5 .5 5 4 .3 2 1 .2 6 5 .1 6 4 .0 3 5 .8

East Asia and Pacific .. 154 123 163 211 54.2 69.3 36.7 50.5 49.2 18.6 19.6 8.4 21.2 27.4 18.1

Europe and Central Asia .. 44 58 66 82 22.3 25.8 10.8 23.5 14.4 5.0 4.9 2.9 6.6 8.0 3.7

Latin America and Carribean .. 156 146 150 178 38.4 42.8 56.8 39.6 57.0 14.1 26.9 4.7 25.4 19.3 11.4

Middle East and North Africa .. 19 7 7 9 0.3 6.4 0.5 1.9 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.5 0.2

South Asia .. 56 44 42 39 14.1 10.8 3.1 11.3 16.5 4.4 2.9 4.6 9.0 4.2 1.1

Sub-Saharan Africa .. 18 25 30 39 7.8 4.2 15.4 11.2 2.7 2.7 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.6 1.3

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of daily figures. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of monthly figures.

b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.

c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.

d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.

e/In billions of US dollars.

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4

1 9 9 9 -0 8 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May Ju n

Policy Rates

High - in come cou n tries

Industrial countries

United States 3.44 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.25

Japan 0.33 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 1.10

Euro Area .. 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.25

United Kingdom 4.80 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.50

Ten year bon d

United States 4.70 3.24 3.19 2.76 1.78 0.71 0.73 0.77 0.64 0.64 2.70 2.72 2.69 2.55 2.59

Japan 1.49 1.35 1.18 1.12 0.85 2.76 2.87 3.20 3.21 3.06 0.60 0.62 0.62 0.60 0.59

Euro Area .. 4.03 3.79 4.31 3.05 2.01 1.92 2.61 2.79 2.78 3.09 2.89 2.61 2.55 2.28

United Kingdom 4.77 3.60 3.53 3.00 1.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.74 2.72 2.67 2.62 2.70

Spreads (Bas is poin ts ) b ,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries . . 2 9 6 3 2 3 3 2 9 3 0 5 2 6 9 2 9 7 3 3 1 3 2 4 3 2 5 3 3 8 3 1 5 2 9 3 2 8 5 . .

Eas t As ia an d Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

China 82 77 193 218 162 146 167 173 162 163 169 159 151 148 ..

Indonesia .. 218 225 228 260 197 230 317 298 298 307 270 267 243 ..

Phillippines .. 337 367 425 429 443 441 411 422 431 431 438 442 451 ..

Malaysia 129 140 145 152 134 112 133 151 141 119 122 100 96 101 ..

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Russian Federation 262 581 621 688 711 728 722 693 703 697 705 683 687 694 ..

Turkey 404 366 387 433 449 468 467 427 433 430 432 435 454 471 ..

Poland 99 156 210 192 135 121 133 148 137 119 121 116 107 106 ..

Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

L atin America an d Caribbean 5 2 2 4 5 3 4 9 7 5 7 9 5 8 7 6 1 5 6 0 1 5 6 3 5 6 9 5 6 8 5 6 1 5 8 2 6 0 4 6 1 6 . .

Brazil 551 798 867 992 967 1019 998 921 932 936 934 951 972 993 ..

Mexico 206 460 501 570 561 583 578 540 546 557 558 566 575 587 ..

Argentina 2920 122 142 134 139 129 127 135 165 161 156 169 183 187 ..

Colombia 370 719 739 764 791 781 787 794 803 812 812 815 817 820 ..

Middle Eas t an d North Africa . . 3 4 6 3 6 9 4 5 5 4 3 9 4 1 5 4 6 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 1 4 4 2 1 4 0 5 3 9 2 3 8 6 . .

Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt .. 173 371 502 565 509 623 622 506 403 381 369 369 .. ..

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sou th As ia d . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Pakistan .. 624 922 1067 734 903 753 666 612 530 466 507 461 .. ..

Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. 369 358 414 406 352 383 441 449 398 348 351 339 .. ..

Su b-Sah aran Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 2 7 2 3 1 2 3 6 . . . .

South Africa 172 191 205 227 226 233 231 217 222 224 .. .. .. .. ..

Nigeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Gros s in flow s e

Dev elopin g cou n tries . . 4 4 7 4 0 3 4 5 8 5 5 8 1 3 7 .2 1 5 9 .4 1 2 3 .3 1 3 7 .9 1 4 0 .7 2 1 .2 6 5 .1 6 4 .0 3 5 .8 . .

East Asia and Pacific .. 154 123 163 211 54.2 69.3 36.7 50.5 49.2 8.4 21.2 27.4 18.1 ..

Europe and Central Asia .. 44 58 66 82 22.3 25.8 10.8 23.5 14.4 2.9 6.6 8.0 3.7 ..

Latin America and Carribean .. 156 146 150 178 38.4 42.8 56.8 39.6 57.0 4.7 25.4 19.3 11.4 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. 19 7 7 9 0.3 6.4 0.5 1.9 0.8 0.0 0.8 2.5 0.2 ..

South Asia .. 56 44 42 39 14.1 10.8 3.1 11.3 16.5 4.6 9.0 4.2 1.1 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. 18 25 30 39 7.8 4.2 15.4 11.2 2.7 0.7 2.0 2.6 1.3 ..

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of daily figures. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of monthly figures.

b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.

c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.

d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.

e/In billions of US dollars.

Av erage 2013 2014 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan F eb M ar A pr M ay

Energy 100.0 128.7 127.6 127.4 123.1 130.2 127.7 128.3 126.6 130.9 127.4 128.4 128.9

Coal, Australia 100.0 122.7 97.4 85.4 87.0 78.1 82.9 77.9 82.5 77.1 74.1 73.6 74.5

Crude o il, average 100.0 131.6 132.9 131.7 125.7 135.9 132.2 131.1 129.2 132.6 131.6 132.7 133.7

Natural gas , Europe 100.0 126.9 138.4 142.2 149.2 138.7 138.1 135.8 139.8 136.3 131.3 129.5 123.1

N o n-energy 100.0 119.8 109.5 101.7 101.7 99.2 98.6 99.2 97.8 99.8 100.0 100.0 99.9

A griculture 100.0 121.6 114.5 106.3 107.3 104.3 103.6 105.5 102.3 106.1 108.2 107.3 107.5

B everages 100.0 116.0 92.6 83.3 83.3 82.2 83.1 94.5 85.8 94.6 103.2 106.1 105.1

Cocoa 100.0 95.1 76.3 77.8 73.6 78.8 88.4 94.2 90.0 95.5 97.1 97.4 96.7

Coffee, arabica 100.0 138.3 95.2 71.2 74.0 69.0 64.1 88.5 67.7 88.6 109.3 114.0 109.3

Coffee, robusta 100.0 138.7 130.6 119.6 123.5 117.3 106.4 122.3 111.4 121.8 133.8 134.0 130.8

F o o d 100.0 122.5 124.5 115.6 117.4 113.2 111.2 111.9 108.7 113.1 114.0 112.5 113.2

F ats and o ils 100.0 120.5 126.1 115.9 112.7 113.8 119.2 120.1 117.9 123.1 119.4 117.1 117.4

Palm o il 100.0 124.9 110.9 95.1 94.4 91.8 99.6 101.2 96.0 100.8 106.7 101.1 99.2

Soybean meal 100.0 105.2 138.5 144.1 139.6 145.8 150.6 153.7 149.8 157.0 154.3 149.6 152.9

Soybeans 100.0 120.2 131.5 119.7 112.3 117.2 123.4 122.8 125.8 131.4 111.2 114.7 115.9

Grains 100.0 138.2 141.3 128.2 138.3 121.6 109.5 110.1 105.5 110.3 114.5 113.1 112.9

M aize 100.0 156.9 160.5 139.5 156.7 130.1 107.3 112.9 106.5 112.6 119.6 119.6 116.9

Rice, Thailand, 5% 100.0 111.1 115.2 103.5 110.8 97.6 90.5 90.7 92.0 93.9 86.3 80.8 79.4

Wheat, US, HRW 100.0 141.5 140.1 139.7 140.3 136.8 137.8 132.9 123.2 130.7 144.7 145.3 149.7

Other fo o d 100.0 111.1 107.1 103.9 104.7 104.7 102.4 102.8 99.5 102.5 106.6 106.0 108.0

Bananas, US 100.0 111.5 113.3 106.4 104.5 107.5 106.6 109.2 106.6 109.9 111.1 107.1 105.4

Sugar, world 100.0 122.1 101.2 83.1 82.2 80.3 82.8 78.5 73.4 78.0 84.1 82.7 85.8

R aw materials 100.0 122.0 101.3 95.4 94.9 94.1 95.4 95.6 95.1 95.1 96.5 95.3 94.8

Cotton ("A" Index) 100.0 145.8 86.1 87.3 89.5 88.7 84.2 90.7 87.8 90.8 93.6 91.0 89.5

Rubber, Singapore 100.0 132.0 92.4 76.5 79.5 70.9 69.2 61.6 63.7 58.7 62.4 60.1 56.7

Sawnwood, M alaysia 100.0 110.7 103.3 100.5 98.7 99.7 104.1 106.3 105.8 106.4 106.8 107.6 108.2

F ert ilizers 100.0 142.6 137.6 113.7 119.8 108.2 97.9 102.5 102.4 104.2 100.8 95.0 96.3

Triple superphosphate 100.0 140.9 121.0 100.0 111.6 95.8 78.9 95.8 84.3 101.5 101.6 97.2 95.6

M etals and minerals 100.0 113.5 96.1 90.8 88.2 87.8 88.5 85.7 88.1 86.2 83.0 85.5 84.8

Aluminum 100.0 110.5 93.1 85.0 84.5 82.0 81.3 78.7 79.5 78.0 78.5 83.3 80.6

Copper 100.0 117.2 105.7 97.3 95.0 94.0 95.1 93.3 96.8 94.9 88.3 88.6 91.5

Gold 100.0 128.1 136.3 115.3 115.5 108.5 103.8 105.6 101.6 106.1 109.1 106.0 105.2

Nickel 100.0 105.1 80.5 68.9 68.6 64.0 63.8 67.2 64.7 65.1 71.9 79.7 89.0

M emo:

C rude Oil (US$ ) 79.0 104.0 105.0 104.1 99.3 107.4 104.5 103.7 102.1 104.8 104.0 104.9 105.7

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in

US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.

b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

Av erage 2013 2014 2014

2010 2011 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 F eb M ar A pr M ay Jun

Energy 100.0 128.7 127.6 127.4 123.1 130.2 127.7 128.3 130.9 127.4 128.5 129.0 131.4

Coal, Australia 100.0 122.7 97.4 85.4 87.0 78.1 82.9 77.9 77.1 74.1 73.6 74.5 72.2

Crude o il, average 100.0 131.6 132.9 131.7 125.7 135.9 132.2 131.1 132.6 131.6 132.7 133.7 137.1

Natural gas , Europe 100.0 126.9 138.4 142.2 149.2 138.7 138.1 135.8 136.3 131.3 129.5 123.1 117.9

N o n-energy 100.0 119.8 109.5 101.7 101.7 99.2 98.6 99.2 99.7 99.9 99.9 99.7 98.1

A griculture 100.0 121.6 114.5 106.3 107.3 104.3 103.6 105.5 106.1 108.1 107.2 107.1 105.0

B everages 100.0 116.0 92.6 83.3 83.3 82.2 83.1 94.5 94.6 103.2 106.1 105.1 102.9

Cocoa 100.0 95.1 76.3 77.8 73.6 78.8 88.4 94.2 95.5 97.1 97.4 96.7 101.3

Coffee, arabica 100.0 138.3 95.2 71.2 74.0 69.0 64.1 88.5 88.6 109.3 114.0 109.3 101.0

Coffee, robusta 100.0 138.7 130.6 119.6 123.5 117.3 106.4 122.3 121.8 133.8 134.0 130.8 125.6

F o o d 100.0 122.5 124.5 115.6 117.4 113.2 111.2 111.9 113.1 113.8 112.1 112.6 109.6

F ats and o ils 100.0 120.5 126.1 115.9 112.7 113.8 119.2 120.1 123.1 119.4 117.1 117.4 113.9

Palm o il 100.0 124.9 110.9 95.1 94.4 91.8 99.6 101.2 100.8 106.7 101.1 99.2 95.2

Soybean meal 100.0 105.2 138.5 144.1 139.6 145.8 150.6 153.7 157.0 154.3 149.6 152.9 146.1

Soybeans 100.0 120.2 131.5 119.7 112.3 117.2 123.4 122.8 131.4 111.2 114.7 115.9 114.5

Grains 100.0 138.2 141.3 128.2 138.3 121.6 109.5 110.1 110.3 114.5 113.1 112.9 106.7

M aize 100.0 156.9 160.5 139.5 156.7 130.1 107.3 112.9 112.6 119.6 119.6 116.9 108.9

Rice, Thailand, 5% 100.0 111.1 115.2 103.5 110.8 97.6 90.5 90.7 93.9 86.3 80.8 79.4 81.2

Wheat, US, HRW 100.0 141.5 140.1 139.7 140.3 136.8 137.8 132.9 130.7 144.7 145.3 149.7 137.1

Other fo o d 100.0 111.1 107.1 103.9 104.7 104.7 102.4 102.7 102.4 105.9 104.5 106.0 106.4

Bananas, US 100.0 111.5 113.3 106.4 104.5 107.5 106.6 109.2 109.9 111.1 107.1 105.4 106.7

Sugar, world 100.0 122.1 101.2 83.1 82.2 80.3 82.8 78.5 78.0 84.1 82.7 85.8 85.3

R aw materials 100.0 122.0 101.3 95.4 94.9 94.1 95.4 95.6 95.1 96.5 96.0 94.8 94.9

Cotton ("A" Index) 100.0 145.8 86.1 87.3 89.5 88.7 84.2 90.7 90.8 93.6 91.0 89.5 87.8

Rubber, Singapore 100.0 132.0 92.4 76.5 79.5 70.9 69.2 61.6 58.7 62.4 60.1 56.7 57.1

Sawnwood, M alaysia 100.0 110.7 103.3 100.5 98.7 99.7 104.1 106.3 106.4 106.8 107.6 108.2 108.6

F ert ilizers 100.0 142.6 137.6 113.7 119.8 108.2 97.9 102.5 104.2 100.8 95.0 96.3 96.2

Triple superphosphate 100.0 140.9 121.0 100.0 111.6 95.8 78.9 95.8 101.5 101.6 97.2 95.6 97.2

M etals and minerals 100.0 113.5 96.1 90.8 88.2 87.8 88.5 85.7 86.2 83.0 85.5 84.8 84.4

Aluminum 100.0 110.5 93.1 85.0 84.5 82.0 81.3 78.7 78.0 78.5 83.3 80.6 84.6

Copper 100.0 117.2 105.7 97.3 95.0 94.0 95.1 93.3 94.9 88.3 88.6 91.5 90.5

Gold 100.0 128.1 136.3 115.3 115.5 108.5 103.8 105.6 106.1 109.1 106.0 105.2 104.4

Nickel 100.0 105.1 80.5 68.9 68.6 64.0 63.8 67.2 65.1 71.9 79.7 89.0 85.4

M emo:

C rude Oil (US$ ) 79.0 104.0 105.0 104.1 99.3 107.4 104.5 103.7 104.8 104.0 104.9 105.7 108.4

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in

US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.

b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.

Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4

1 9 9 9 -0 9 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May Ju n

Ex port v alu es

Dev elopin g cou n tries 1 3 .0 2 1 .7 4 .1 2 .6 -1 3 .7 3 .0 1 2 .7 -9 .1 -1 2 .9 3 .8 4 .7 0 .0 . .

Eas t As ia an d Pacific 1 4 .2 1 9 .7 6 .2 6 .2 -1 8 .9 -1 .2 2 4 .0 -1 0 .9 -2 0 .7 8 .4 5 .7 -0 .2 -1 .6

China 19.5 20.2 8.1 8.2 -22.8 1.0 24.1 -14.6 -27.0 11.4 7.5 0.6 -1.6

Indonesia 9.0 28.8 -6.2 -4.0 -12.9 -21.8 53.2 -14.0 1.0 -2.4 -2.8 -3.1 ..

Thailand 10.4 15.0 3.1 -0.2 -13.1 -5.2 21.8 -4.6 -1.8 -4.2 1.7 -2.6 ..

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 1 3 .9 2 5 .6 0 .7 0 .9 -7 .6 1 5 .2 4 .6 6 .8 0 .7 0 .1 -1 .6 -0 .9 . .

Russian Federation 15.8 31.1 2.6 -0.9 -9.1 26.0 -5.5 -14.5 -17.3 21.6 0.9 -3.0 ..

Turkey 14.0 18.4 12.8 0.0 -2.5 9.0 -3.7 37.1 3.9 3.5 -7.3 0.3 ..

Poland 16.6 22.4 -3.1 10.2 -5.2 17.5 9.6 19.1 -4.7 5.3 1.9 -3.1 ..

L atin America an d Caribbean 8 .3 2 3 .2 1 .6 0 .7 5 .7 2 .0 2 .9 -1 1 .8 0 .7 -3 .7 3 .9 0 .4 . .

Brazil 11.5 27.0 -4.7 -0.5 5.8 -8.4 24.0 -23.3 -4.5 -5.4 7.4 -4.9 1.7

Mexico 7.0 17.4 5.9 2.3 3.7 10.7 -2.0 -0.5 5.3 -0.7 2.1 1.3 ..

Argentina 8.0 23.3 -4.5 1.8 30.5 -16.3 -18.6 -23.5 3.3 -9.2 6.3 0.5 ..

Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 8 .1 1 6 .2 5 .9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Saudi Arabia 18.3 42.3 10.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 20.7 29.9 -20.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 21.4 15.1 -3.4 -3.3 -24.7 -9.5 -3.5 5.4 -5.9 5.0 -6.0 9.5 ..

Sou th As ia 1 4 .9 3 1 .6 -1 .7 5 .9 -2 0 .7 5 2 .3 -1 .1 -1 7 .8 -3 .7 -1 .5 6 .2 2 .9 -3 .9

India 16.5 33.4 -1.9 5.6 -24.0 53.1 -1.1 -20.9 -4.5 -1.7 8.8 2.3 -3.9

Pakistan 7.1 18.9 -2.6 2.5 9.4 55.6 -25.9 8.5 8.1 -5.8 -15.0 11.6 -4.5

Bangladesh - 26.7 3.5 12.2 -16.8 54.4 8.7 -6.7 -3.3 -2.5 .. .. ..

Su b-Sah aran Africa 1 2 .9 2 4 .7 2 .9 -1 2 .0 -8 .1 -1 7 .4 -2 5 .1 . . . . . . . . . . . .

South Africa 9.2 19.3 -7.9 -4.1 -5.7 -11.1 6.1 -4.5 -5.1 -8.7 6.4 -2.4 ..

Nigeria 18.9 44.4 16.8 -35.5 -27.4 -35.5 -53.9 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Ex port prices b,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries 4.6 12.9 0.4 -1.4 -5.1 -0.7 3.0 -7.2 -2.4 -1.6 1.5 0.2 ..

Eas t As ia an d Pacific 3 .4 1 4 .4 2 .0 0 .6 2 .2 -1 .9 5 .3 -7 .7 -1 .6 -2 .7 0 .7 0 .5 0 .2

China 3.5 15.2 4.5 1.9 5.9 -1.7 8.5 -10.9 -0.5 -4.6 0.8 0.6 0.1

Indonesia 5.1 17.0 -6.8 -4.4 -9.7 -8.0 1.5 -4.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7

Thailand 2.0 10.9 -3.0 -2.7 -3.1 -3.1 -1.2 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 3 .0 1 2 .0 -2 .1 -1 .5 -2 .9 0 .8 -0 .8 0 .2 0 .1 0 .0 0 .0 -0 .1 . .

Russian Federation 9.3 24.7 -1.3 -1.8 -15.7 17.9 -5.8 -3.0 1.5 -0.6 0.4 0.4 1.3

Turkey 2.3 10.0 -1.6 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1

Poland 1.9 10.2 -1.7 -1.8 -1.7 -1.2 0.3 2.4 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0

L atin America an d Caribbean 4 .7 5 .2 -4 .7 -4 .8 -1 5 .5 0 .5 1 .6 -1 3 .4 -2 .6 -2 .8 5 .1 0 .3 . .

Brazil 9.0 -3.5 -5.7 -3.1 -28.0 -13.5 35.7 -2.5 0.3 -3.9 0.0 -0.7 -3.1

Mexico 3.8 3.5 -4.7 -2.1 -2.6 19.0 -4.7 -12.7 -5.0 -1.9 -0.3 0.8 12.9

Argentina -2.1 12.4 -6.8 -18.1 -17.8 -30.2 -35.4 -55.5 -7.7 -9.3 62.9 -3.0 -3.5

Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 2 .2 1 6 .4 1 8 .5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Saudi Arabia 12.6 28.0 0.8 -0.9 -17.0 29.2 -8.8 -2.6 2.2 -0.7 0.6 0.6 2.0

Iran 13.5 28.3 0.3 -0.8 -18.2 29.5 -8.7 -3.6 2.1 -0.9 0.7 0.4 1.9

Egypt 5.3 17.0 0.1 -0.9 -2.2 2.5 -6.1 -0.7 0.5 -0.7 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1

Sou th As ia 2 .3 1 1 .1 -3 .4 -1 .9 -6 .3 -1 .3 -1 .0 0 .0 -0 .1 -0 .3 0 .0 -0 .7 -0 .4

India 2.5 11.6 -3.8 -1.9 -7.2 -1.0 -1.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -0.4

Pakistan 2.1 9.8 -1.5 -2.3 -1.3 -5.1 -3.5 2.5 0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.1

Bangladesh 1.6 9.0 -1.3 -1.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Su b-Sah aran Africa 8 .3 2 4 .3 -2 .7 -5 .0 -2 0 .1 7 .9 -9 .1 . . . . . . . . . . . .

South Africa 4.5 22.3 -7.7 -6.5 -24.2 -6.7 -1.3 -5.0 0.0 -0.9 -0.6 -1.1 -0.4

Nigeria 14.3 29.2 0.5 -0.8 -16.5 27.9 -8.8 -2.9 2.1 -0.8 0.6 0.4 2.0

Table A.5 Developing countries ' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except

monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis.

/b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.

/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual

trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed)

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4

1 9 9 9 -0 9 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May Ju n

Export v alu es

Dev elopin g cou n tries 1 3 .0 2 1 .7 4 .1 2 .6 -1 3 .7 3 .0 1 2 .7 -9 .1 -1 2 .9 3 .8 4 .7 0 .0 . .

Eas t As ia an d Pacific 1 4 .2 1 9 .7 6 .2 6 .2 -1 8 .9 -1 .2 2 4 .0 -1 0 .9 -2 0 .7 8 .4 5 .7 -0 .2 -1 .6

China 19.5 20.2 8.1 8.2 -22.8 1.0 24.1 -14.6 -27.0 11.4 7.5 0.6 -1.6

Indonesia 9.0 28.8 -6.2 -4.0 -12.9 -21.8 53.2 -14.0 1.0 -2.4 -2.8 -3.1 ..

Thailand 10.4 15.0 3.1 -0.2 -13.1 -5.2 21.8 -4.6 -1.8 -4.2 1.7 -2.6 ..

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 1 3 .9 2 5 .6 0 .7 0 .9 -7 .6 1 5 .2 4 .6 6 .8 0 .7 0 .1 -1 .6 -0 .9 . .

Russian Federation 15.8 31.1 2.6 -0.9 -9.1 26.0 -5.5 -14.5 -17.3 21.6 0.9 -3.0 ..

Turkey 14.0 18.4 12.8 0.0 -2.5 9.0 -3.7 37.1 3.9 3.5 -7.3 0.3 ..

Poland 16.6 22.4 -3.1 10.2 -5.2 17.5 9.6 19.1 -4.7 5.3 1.9 -3.1 ..

L atin America an d Caribbean 8 .3 2 3 .2 1 .6 0 .7 5 .7 2 .0 2 .9 -1 1 .8 0 .7 -3 .7 3 .9 0 .4 . .

Brazil 11.5 27.0 -4.7 -0.5 5.8 -8.4 24.0 -23.3 -4.5 -5.4 7.4 -4.9 1.7

Mexico 7.0 17.4 5.9 2.3 3.7 10.7 -2.0 -0.5 5.3 -0.7 2.1 1.3 ..

Argentina 8.0 23.3 -4.5 1.8 30.5 -16.3 -18.6 -23.5 3.3 -9.2 6.3 0.5 ..

Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 8 .1 1 6 .2 5 .9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Saudi Arabia 18.3 42.3 10.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 20.7 29.9 -20.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 21.4 15.1 -3.4 -3.3 -24.7 -9.5 -3.5 5.4 -5.9 5.0 -6.0 9.5 ..

Sou th As ia 1 4 .9 3 1 .6 -1 .7 5 .9 -2 0 .7 5 2 .3 -1 .1 -1 7 .8 -3 .7 -1 .5 6 .2 2 .9 -3 .9

India 16.5 33.4 -1.9 5.6 -24.0 53.1 -1.1 -20.9 -4.5 -1.7 8.8 2.3 -3.9

Pakistan 7.1 18.9 -2.6 2.5 9.4 55.6 -25.9 8.5 8.1 -5.8 -15.0 11.6 -4.5

Bangladesh - 26.7 3.5 12.2 -16.8 54.4 8.7 -6.7 -3.3 -2.5 .. .. ..

Su b-Sah aran Africa 1 2 .9 2 4 .7 2 .9 -1 2 .0 -8 .1 -1 7 .4 -2 5 .1 . . . . . . . . . . . .

South Africa 9.2 19.3 -7.9 -4.1 -5.7 -11.1 6.1 -4.5 -5.1 -8.7 6.4 -2.4 ..

Nigeria 18.9 44.4 16.8 -35.5 -27.4 -35.5 -53.9 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.5 Developing countries ' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except

monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4

1 9 9 9 -0 9 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May Ju n

Ex port v alu es

Dev elopin g cou n tries 1 3 .0 2 1 .7 4 .1 2 .6 -1 3 .7 3 .0 1 2 .7 -9 .1 -1 2 .9 3 .8 4 .7 0 .0 . .

Eas t As ia an d Pacific 1 4 .2 1 9 .7 6 .2 6 .2 -1 8 .9 -1 .2 2 4 .0 -1 0 .9 -2 0 .7 8 .4 5 .7 -0 .2 -1 .6

China 19.5 20.2 8.1 8.2 -22.8 1.0 24.1 -14.6 -27.0 11.4 7.5 0.6 -1.6

Indonesia 9.0 28.8 -6.2 -4.0 -12.9 -21.8 53.2 -14.0 1.0 -2.4 -2.8 -3.1 ..

Thailand 10.4 15.0 3.1 -0.2 -13.1 -5.2 21.8 -4.6 -1.8 -4.2 1.7 -2.6 ..

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 1 3 .9 2 5 .6 0 .7 0 .9 -7 .6 1 5 .2 4 .6 6 .8 0 .7 0 .1 -1 .6 -0 .9 . .

Russian Federation 15.8 31.1 2.6 -0.9 -9.1 26.0 -5.5 -14.5 -17.3 21.6 0.9 -3.0 ..

Turkey 14.0 18.4 12.8 0.0 -2.5 9.0 -3.7 37.1 3.9 3.5 -7.3 0.3 ..

Poland 16.6 22.4 -3.1 10.2 -5.2 17.5 9.6 19.1 -4.7 5.3 1.9 -3.1 ..

L atin America an d Caribbean 8 .3 2 3 .2 1 .6 0 .7 5 .7 2 .0 2 .9 -1 1 .8 0 .7 -3 .7 3 .9 0 .4 . .

Brazil 11.5 27.0 -4.7 -0.5 5.8 -8.4 24.0 -23.3 -4.5 -5.4 7.4 -4.9 1.7

Mexico 7.0 17.4 5.9 2.3 3.7 10.7 -2.0 -0.5 5.3 -0.7 2.1 1.3 ..

Argentina 8.0 23.3 -4.5 1.8 30.5 -16.3 -18.6 -23.5 3.3 -9.2 6.3 0.5 ..

Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 8 .1 1 6 .2 5 .9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Saudi Arabia 18.3 42.3 10.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 20.7 29.9 -20.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 21.4 15.1 -3.4 -3.3 -24.7 -9.5 -3.5 5.4 -5.9 5.0 -6.0 9.5 ..

Sou th As ia 1 4 .9 3 1 .6 -1 .7 5 .9 -2 0 .7 5 2 .3 -1 .1 -1 7 .8 -3 .7 -1 .5 6 .2 2 .9 -3 .9

India 16.5 33.4 -1.9 5.6 -24.0 53.1 -1.1 -20.9 -4.5 -1.7 8.8 2.3 -3.9

Pakistan 7.1 18.9 -2.6 2.5 9.4 55.6 -25.9 8.5 8.1 -5.8 -15.0 11.6 -4.5

Bangladesh - 26.7 3.5 12.2 -16.8 54.4 8.7 -6.7 -3.3 -2.5 .. .. ..

Su b-Sah aran Africa 1 2 .9 2 4 .7 2 .9 -1 2 .0 -8 .1 -1 7 .4 -2 5 .1 . . . . . . . . . . . .

South Africa 9.2 19.3 -7.9 -4.1 -5.7 -11.1 6.1 -4.5 -5.1 -8.7 6.4 -2.4 ..

Nigeria 18.9 44.4 16.8 -35.5 -27.4 -35.5 -53.9 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Ex port prices b,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries 4.6 12.9 0.4 -1.4 -5.1 -0.7 3.0 -7.2 -2.4 -1.6 1.5 0.2 ..

Eas t As ia an d Pacific 3 .4 1 4 .4 2 .0 0 .6 2 .2 -1 .9 5 .3 -7 .7 -1 .6 -2 .7 0 .7 0 .5 0 .2

China 3.5 15.2 4.5 1.9 5.9 -1.7 8.5 -10.9 -0.5 -4.6 0.8 0.6 0.1

Indonesia 5.1 17.0 -6.8 -4.4 -9.7 -8.0 1.5 -4.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7

Thailand 2.0 10.9 -3.0 -2.7 -3.1 -3.1 -1.2 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 3 .0 1 2 .0 -2 .1 -1 .5 -2 .9 0 .8 -0 .8 0 .2 0 .1 0 .0 0 .0 -0 .1 . .

Russian Federation 9.3 24.7 -1.3 -1.8 -15.7 17.9 -5.8 -3.0 1.5 -0.6 0.4 0.4 1.3

Turkey 2.3 10.0 -1.6 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1

Poland 1.9 10.2 -1.7 -1.8 -1.7 -1.2 0.3 2.4 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0

L atin America an d Caribbean 4 .7 5 .2 -4 .7 -4 .8 -1 5 .5 0 .5 1 .6 -1 3 .4 -2 .6 -2 .8 5 .1 0 .3 . .

Brazil 9.0 -3.5 -5.7 -3.1 -28.0 -13.5 35.7 -2.5 0.3 -3.9 0.0 -0.7 -3.1

Mexico 3.8 3.5 -4.7 -2.1 -2.6 19.0 -4.7 -12.7 -5.0 -1.9 -0.3 0.8 12.9

Argentina -2.1 12.4 -6.8 -18.1 -17.8 -30.2 -35.4 -55.5 -7.7 -9.3 62.9 -3.0 -3.5

Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 2 .2 1 6 .4 1 8 .5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Saudi Arabia 12.6 28.0 0.8 -0.9 -17.0 29.2 -8.8 -2.6 2.2 -0.7 0.6 0.6 2.0

Iran 13.5 28.3 0.3 -0.8 -18.2 29.5 -8.7 -3.6 2.1 -0.9 0.7 0.4 1.9

Egypt 5.3 17.0 0.1 -0.9 -2.2 2.5 -6.1 -0.7 0.5 -0.7 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1

Sou th As ia 2 .3 1 1 .1 -3 .4 -1 .9 -6 .3 -1 .3 -1 .0 0 .0 -0 .1 -0 .3 0 .0 -0 .7 -0 .4

India 2.5 11.6 -3.8 -1.9 -7.2 -1.0 -1.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -0.4

Pakistan 2.1 9.8 -1.5 -2.3 -1.3 -5.1 -3.5 2.5 0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.1

Bangladesh 1.6 9.0 -1.3 -1.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Su b-Sah aran Africa 8 .3 2 4 .3 -2 .7 -5 .0 -2 0 .1 7 .9 -9 .1 . . . . . . . . . . . .

South Africa 4.5 22.3 -7.7 -6.5 -24.2 -6.7 -1.3 -5.0 0.0 -0.9 -0.6 -1.1 -0.4

Nigeria 14.3 29.2 0.5 -0.8 -16.5 27.9 -8.8 -2.9 2.1 -0.8 0.6 0.4 2.0

Table A.5 Developing countries ' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except

monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis.

/b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.

/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual

trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed)

Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4

1 9 9 9 -0 9 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May Ju n

I mport v alu es

Dev elopin g cou n tries 1 2 .8 2 4 .7 4 .7 3 .2 -8 .6 2 .2 3 .0 -2 .5 -4 .1 -5 .4 4 .0 -2 .9 . .

Eas t As ia an d Pacific 1 5 .7 2 4 .2 5 .6 5 .4 -1 3 .1 7 .1 7 .2 -2 .5 -5 .8 -1 0 .4 7 .4 -4 .2 4 .3

China 20.4 24.9 4.9 7.5 -12.7 13.7 7.8 0.3 -5.6 -13.3 8.8 -5.2 4.4

Indonesia 15.2 30.8 8.3 -2.7 -9.8 -18.1 9.8 -1.7 -4.3 -1.7 3.8 -7.2 ..

Thailand 12.0 23.8 9.8 -0.7 -24.0 -18.0 4.4 -25.4 -9.3 0.1 2.5 1.8 ..

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 1 2 .8 2 8 .9 0 .3 2 .9 -3 .2 5 .7 5 .6 -1 6 .6 -4 .3 -2 .6 0 .7 0 .3 . .

Russian Federation 14.2 30.7 5.6 1.9 -16.5 -3.0 4.7 -7.4 -7.2 0.3 0.4 -3.7 ..

Turkey 13.4 30.0 -1.7 6.2 6.7 -14.8 21.5 -17.9 -5.8 -3.1 1.0 -2.9 ..

Poland 12.6 18.8 -5.9 3.0 -15.4 16.8 8.2 33.6 -0.9 -0.7 1.0 1.0 ..

L atin America an d Caribbean 7 .5 2 2 .7 3 .9 3 .2 0 .5 -1 .7 -2 .2 3 .9 -0 .7 -3 .5 3 .3 -2 .4 . .

Brazil 9.6 24.7 -1.1 7.3 -2.2 1.1 -2.3 1.4 -2.0 -11.7 2.6 -0.3 -1.8

Mexico 6.7 16.5 5.7 2.8 8.5 -3.1 -2.8 8.8 -2.1 1.6 3.0 -2.7 ..

Argentina 8.6 31.1 -8.1 8.1 28.4 -19.7 -17.4 12.1 9.3 -9.4 1.0 -6.5 ..

Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 2 .7 1 7 .1 1 0 .3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Saudi Arabia 11.8 22.5 19.7 8.4 -6.6 -14.1 -1.6 14.2 3.0 -0.2 -3.1 -3.7 ..

Iran 13.0 44.4 -2.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 12.8 11.3 17.9 -15.9 -6.9 -27.7 45.4 -15.8 6.3 7.2 -23.2 23.6 ..

Sou th As ia 1 7 .7 3 1 .4 4 .0 -3 .8 -1 7 .7 -1 5 .0 -1 0 .4 3 .2 9 .5 -3 .8 -2 .8 8 .2 . .

India 19.2 32.4 5.5 -5.1 -22.5 -18.9 -11.3 -2.4 11.2 -5.1 -0.8 7.1 ..

Pakistan 14.8 16.4 0.5 1.1 9.8 -5.2 -20.8 48.2 -3.4 4.6 -15.7 20.3 ..

Bangladesh 29.7 -5.6 5.5 4.5 21.0 21.0 19.4 8.7 1.8 .. .. ..

Su b-Sah aran Africa 1 3 .6 2 3 .2 5 .0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

South Africa 14.6 23.6 1.4 -0.5 8.4 0.2 -6.9 -13.1 3.2 7.3 -6.0 .. ..

Nigeria 20.2 24.1 -5.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

I mport prices b ,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries 2.2 13.6 -1.5 -2.0 -6.2 -4.4 -0.7 -11.7 -1.4 0.1 2.6 0.6 ..

Eas t As ia an d Pacific 3 .5 1 6 .7 1 .1 -0 .2 -1 .1 1 .0 1 .4 -1 2 .6 -2 .6 -0 .1 2 .6 0 .7 -4 .8

China 4.6 19.2 1.6 0.6 0.4 3.2 0.9 -16.4 -3.7 0.0 3.5 0.9 -4.7

Indonesia 2.3 11.6 -2.0 -1.8 -2.0 -0.2 -0.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2

Thailand 3.4 10.2 1.6 -2.1 -5.8 -2.8 3.1 0.2 0.8 0.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.4

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 0 .9 7 .9 -5 .8 -4 .5 -1 4 .9 -7 .8 -3 .5 -1 6 .5 -0 .1 0 .0 0 .2 2 .4 . .

Russian Federation 1.9 9.9 -1.6 -1.6 -1.1 -0.9 0.2 2.5 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1

Turkey -7.7 3.4 -9.5 -6.8 -22.5 -23.1 -9.7 -29.9 0.9 -0.2 1.2 3.3 10.7

Poland 4.6 11.4 -3.9 1.7 -7.0 0.6 8.7 3.6 0.2 0.6 -2.1 -1.9 2.2

L atin America an d Caribbean 0 .1 1 1 .6 -5 .8 -3 .7 -5 .9 -1 8 .0 -3 .0 -1 4 .8 -0 .4 2 .0 5 .8 0 .2 . .

Brazil 1.8 20.3 -13.3 -10.6 -16.0 -35.4 2.4 -16.7 0.3 3.5 3.4 -0.9 5.4

Mexico -0.6 9.3 -4.7 2.8 2.7 -11.8 -2.2 -3.1 -0.2 0.4 1.1 1.1 -1.7

Argentina -5.7 1.5 -10.5 -13.4 -11.9 -26.4 -27.6 -58.1 0.0 0.0 45.3 0.0 0.1

Middle Eas t an d North Africa 3 .6 8 .0 2 .5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Saudi Arabia 2.2 10.5 -1.8 -1.7 -2.4 -1.5 -0.6 1.7 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Iran 2.6 11.3 -1.5 -2.0 -2.2 -2.6 -1.2 2.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1

Egypt 2.7 14.0 -1.6 -2.0 -3.9 -4.3 -1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 -1.0

Sou th As ia 4 .7 1 7 .9 -0 .9 -3 .5 -1 3 .4 3 .6 -4 .0 0 .0 1 .0 0 .1 -0 .3 0 .3 0 .4

India 5.6 19.2 -0.4 -3.8 -15.3 5.2 -5.0 -0.1 1.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.6

Pakistan 2.2 11.6 -4.3 -2.2 -1.4 -1.6 0.0 1.2 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.2

Bangladesh 13.0 -3.7 -1.8 -1.1 -2.1 -1.4 2.1 0.6 0.6 -0.2 0.1 -0.7

Su b-Sah aran Africa 3 .4 1 0 .4 -2 .7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

South Africa 4.9 9.3 -5.7 -6.6 -12.4 -6.5 1.6 -10.2 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.6 0.6

Nigeria 1.9 10.0 -1.4 -1.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.1 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.3

Table A.6 Developing countries ' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates

except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis.

/b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.

/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures

individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing

(developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4

1 9 9 9 -0 9 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May Ju n

I mport v alu es

Dev elopin g cou n tries 1 2 .8 2 4 .7 4 .7 3 .2 -8 .6 2 .2 3 .0 -2 .5 -4 .1 -5 .4 4 .0 -2 .9 . .

Eas t As ia an d Pacific 1 5 .7 2 4 .2 5 .6 5 .4 -1 3 .1 7 .1 7 .2 -2 .5 -5 .8 -1 0 .4 7 .4 -4 .2 4 .3

China 20.4 24.9 4.9 7.5 -12.7 13.7 7.8 0.3 -5.6 -13.3 8.8 -5.2 4.4

Indonesia 15.2 30.8 8.3 -2.7 -9.8 -18.1 9.8 -1.7 -4.3 -1.7 3.8 -7.2 ..

Thailand 12.0 23.8 9.8 -0.7 -24.0 -18.0 4.4 -25.4 -9.3 0.1 2.5 1.8 ..

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 1 2 .8 2 8 .9 0 .3 2 .9 -3 .2 5 .7 5 .6 -1 6 .6 -4 .3 -2 .6 0 .7 0 .3 . .

Russian Federation 14.2 30.7 5.6 1.9 -16.5 -3.0 4.7 -7.4 -7.2 0.3 0.4 -3.7 ..

Turkey 13.4 30.0 -1.7 6.2 6.7 -14.8 21.5 -17.9 -5.8 -3.1 1.0 -2.9 ..

Poland 12.6 18.8 -5.9 3.0 -15.4 16.8 8.2 33.6 -0.9 -0.7 1.0 1.0 ..

L atin America an d Caribbean 7 .5 2 2 .7 3 .9 3 .2 0 .5 -1 .7 -2 .2 3 .9 -0 .7 -3 .5 3 .3 -2 .4 . .

Brazil 9.6 24.7 -1.1 7.3 -2.2 1.1 -2.3 1.4 -2.0 -11.7 2.6 -0.3 -1.8

Mexico 6.7 16.5 5.7 2.8 8.5 -3.1 -2.8 8.8 -2.1 1.6 3.0 -2.7 ..

Argentina 8.6 31.1 -8.1 8.1 28.4 -19.7 -17.4 12.1 9.3 -9.4 1.0 -6.5 ..

Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 2 .7 1 7 .1 1 0 .3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Saudi Arabia 11.8 22.5 19.7 8.4 -6.6 -14.1 -1.6 14.2 3.0 -0.2 -3.1 -3.7 ..

Iran 13.0 44.4 -2.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 12.8 11.3 17.9 -15.9 -6.9 -27.7 45.4 -15.8 6.3 7.2 -23.2 23.6 ..

Sou th As ia 1 7 .7 3 1 .4 4 .0 -3 .8 -1 7 .7 -1 5 .0 -1 0 .4 3 .2 9 .5 -3 .8 -2 .8 8 .2 . .

India 19.2 32.4 5.5 -5.1 -22.5 -18.9 -11.3 -2.4 11.2 -5.1 -0.8 7.1 ..

Pakistan 14.8 16.4 0.5 1.1 9.8 -5.2 -20.8 48.2 -3.4 4.6 -15.7 20.3 ..

Bangladesh 29.7 -5.6 5.5 4.5 21.0 21.0 19.4 8.7 1.8 .. .. ..

Su b-Sah aran Africa 1 3 .6 2 3 .2 5 .0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

South Africa 14.6 23.6 1.4 -0.5 8.4 0.2 -6.9 -13.1 3.2 7.3 -6.0 .. ..

Nigeria 20.2 24.1 -5.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.6 Developing countries ' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates

except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4

1 9 9 9 -0 9 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May Ju n

I mport v alu es

Dev elopin g cou n tries 1 2 .8 2 4 .7 4 .7 3 .2 -8 .6 2 .2 3 .0 -2 .5 -4 .1 -5 .4 4 .0 -2 .9 . .

Eas t As ia an d Pacific 1 5 .7 2 4 .2 5 .6 5 .4 -1 3 .1 7 .1 7 .2 -2 .5 -5 .8 -1 0 .4 7 .4 -4 .2 4 .3

China 20.4 24.9 4.9 7.5 -12.7 13.7 7.8 0.3 -5.6 -13.3 8.8 -5.2 4.4

Indonesia 15.2 30.8 8.3 -2.7 -9.8 -18.1 9.8 -1.7 -4.3 -1.7 3.8 -7.2 ..

Thailand 12.0 23.8 9.8 -0.7 -24.0 -18.0 4.4 -25.4 -9.3 0.1 2.5 1.8 ..

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 1 2 .8 2 8 .9 0 .3 2 .9 -3 .2 5 .7 5 .6 -1 6 .6 -4 .3 -2 .6 0 .7 0 .3 . .

Russian Federation 14.2 30.7 5.6 1.9 -16.5 -3.0 4.7 -7.4 -7.2 0.3 0.4 -3.7 ..

Turkey 13.4 30.0 -1.7 6.2 6.7 -14.8 21.5 -17.9 -5.8 -3.1 1.0 -2.9 ..

Poland 12.6 18.8 -5.9 3.0 -15.4 16.8 8.2 33.6 -0.9 -0.7 1.0 1.0 ..

L atin America an d Caribbean 7 .5 2 2 .7 3 .9 3 .2 0 .5 -1 .7 -2 .2 3 .9 -0 .7 -3 .5 3 .3 -2 .4 . .

Brazil 9.6 24.7 -1.1 7.3 -2.2 1.1 -2.3 1.4 -2.0 -11.7 2.6 -0.3 -1.8

Mexico 6.7 16.5 5.7 2.8 8.5 -3.1 -2.8 8.8 -2.1 1.6 3.0 -2.7 ..

Argentina 8.6 31.1 -8.1 8.1 28.4 -19.7 -17.4 12.1 9.3 -9.4 1.0 -6.5 ..

Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 2 .7 1 7 .1 1 0 .3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Saudi Arabia 11.8 22.5 19.7 8.4 -6.6 -14.1 -1.6 14.2 3.0 -0.2 -3.1 -3.7 ..

Iran 13.0 44.4 -2.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 12.8 11.3 17.9 -15.9 -6.9 -27.7 45.4 -15.8 6.3 7.2 -23.2 23.6 ..

Sou th As ia 1 7 .7 3 1 .4 4 .0 -3 .8 -1 7 .7 -1 5 .0 -1 0 .4 3 .2 9 .5 -3 .8 -2 .8 8 .2 . .

India 19.2 32.4 5.5 -5.1 -22.5 -18.9 -11.3 -2.4 11.2 -5.1 -0.8 7.1 ..

Pakistan 14.8 16.4 0.5 1.1 9.8 -5.2 -20.8 48.2 -3.4 4.6 -15.7 20.3 ..

Bangladesh 29.7 -5.6 5.5 4.5 21.0 21.0 19.4 8.7 1.8 .. .. ..

Su b-Sah aran Africa 1 3 .6 2 3 .2 5 .0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

South Africa 14.6 23.6 1.4 -0.5 8.4 0.2 -6.9 -13.1 3.2 7.3 -6.0 .. ..

Nigeria 20.2 24.1 -5.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

I mport prices b ,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries 2.2 13.6 -1.5 -2.0 -6.2 -4.4 -0.7 -11.7 -1.4 0.1 2.6 0.6 ..

Eas t As ia an d Pacific 3 .5 1 6 .7 1 .1 -0 .2 -1 .1 1 .0 1 .4 -1 2 .6 -2 .6 -0 .1 2 .6 0 .7 -4 .8

China 4.6 19.2 1.6 0.6 0.4 3.2 0.9 -16.4 -3.7 0.0 3.5 0.9 -4.7

Indonesia 2.3 11.6 -2.0 -1.8 -2.0 -0.2 -0.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2

Thailand 3.4 10.2 1.6 -2.1 -5.8 -2.8 3.1 0.2 0.8 0.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.4

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 0 .9 7 .9 -5 .8 -4 .5 -1 4 .9 -7 .8 -3 .5 -1 6 .5 -0 .1 0 .0 0 .2 2 .4 . .

Russian Federation 1.9 9.9 -1.6 -1.6 -1.1 -0.9 0.2 2.5 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1

Turkey -7.7 3.4 -9.5 -6.8 -22.5 -23.1 -9.7 -29.9 0.9 -0.2 1.2 3.3 10.7

Poland 4.6 11.4 -3.9 1.7 -7.0 0.6 8.7 3.6 0.2 0.6 -2.1 -1.9 2.2

L atin America an d Caribbean 0 .1 1 1 .6 -5 .8 -3 .7 -5 .9 -1 8 .0 -3 .0 -1 4 .8 -0 .4 2 .0 5 .8 0 .2 . .

Brazil 1.8 20.3 -13.3 -10.6 -16.0 -35.4 2.4 -16.7 0.3 3.5 3.4 -0.9 5.4

Mexico -0.6 9.3 -4.7 2.8 2.7 -11.8 -2.2 -3.1 -0.2 0.4 1.1 1.1 -1.7

Argentina -5.7 1.5 -10.5 -13.4 -11.9 -26.4 -27.6 -58.1 0.0 0.0 45.3 0.0 0.1

Middle Eas t an d North Africa 3 .6 8 .0 2 .5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Saudi Arabia 2.2 10.5 -1.8 -1.7 -2.4 -1.5 -0.6 1.7 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Iran 2.6 11.3 -1.5 -2.0 -2.2 -2.6 -1.2 2.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1

Egypt 2.7 14.0 -1.6 -2.0 -3.9 -4.3 -1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 -1.0

Sou th As ia 4 .7 1 7 .9 -0 .9 -3 .5 -1 3 .4 3 .6 -4 .0 0 .0 1 .0 0 .1 -0 .3 0 .3 0 .4

India 5.6 19.2 -0.4 -3.8 -15.3 5.2 -5.0 -0.1 1.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.6

Pakistan 2.2 11.6 -4.3 -2.2 -1.4 -1.6 0.0 1.2 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.2

Bangladesh 13.0 -3.7 -1.8 -1.1 -2.1 -1.4 2.1 0.6 0.6 -0.2 0.1 -0.7

Su b-Sah aran Africa 3 .4 1 0 .4 -2 .7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

South Africa 4.9 9.3 -5.7 -6.6 -12.4 -6.5 1.6 -10.2 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.6 0.6

Nigeria 1.9 10.0 -1.4 -1.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.1 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.3

Table A.6 Developing countries ' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates

except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis.

/b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.

/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures

individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing

(developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.

Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4

2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May

World .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

High - in come cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 9.3 5.7 -1.3 -3.1 -0.9 -3.4 -4.2 -3.8 -2.0 -0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 1.4

United States (SDR/USD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Japan 6.7 10.1 -0.1 -18.2 -14.1 -18.8 -20.5 -19.1 -10.1 -0.3 1.7 -0.2 -0.2 0.7

Euro Area .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United Kingdom -1.0 3.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.4 -2.9 -1.8 0.8 6.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.6

Other high income .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0

Singapore 6.7 8.4 0.6 -0.1 2.1 1.2 -1.7 -2.2 -2.5 -1.1 0.5 -0.1 1.0 0.2

Taiwan (China) 4.9 7.2 -0.6 -0.4 0.7 -0.8 -0.2 -1.4 -2.7 -1.3 -0.5 -0.3 0.6 0.3

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Eas t As ia an d Pacific 7 .9 0 .0 -4 .7 -7 .2 -4 .3 -3 .5 -8 .0 -1 2 .4 -1 3 .2 -0 .5 1 .4 3 .1 -0 .1 -0 .7

China 0.9 4.7 2.5 2.6 1.4 2.9 3.7 2.5 2.0 0.4 -0.5 -1.5 -0.8 -0.2

Indonesia 14.5 3.6 -6.5 -10.2 -6.4 -5.0 -10.9 -17.0 -18.0 -0.7 2.0 4.4 -0.1 -0.9

Thailand 8.2 4.0 -1.9 1.1 4.0 4.6 -0.4 -3.4 -8.7 -1.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 -0.7

Malaysia 9.4 5.3 -1.0 -2.0 -0.7 1.4 -3.7 -4.7 -6.5 -1.6 -0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia -5 .8 -3 2 .2 -3 2 .2 -5 .9 -4 .6 -5 .6 -5 .9 -7 .4 -1 0 .2 -1 .3 -1 .6 -1 .1 -1 .0 -0 .9

Russian Federation 4.6 3.3 -5.3 -2.5 -0.9 -1.9 -2.6 -4.6 -13.2 -2.7 -4.3 -2.2 1.3 2.4

Turkey 3.1 -10.3 -6.7 -5.5 0.6 -1.9 -8.5 -11.4 -19.3 -6.9 0.5 -0.2 4.1 1.7

Poland 3.4 1.8 -8.9 3.0 2.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 -0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.5

Czech Republic -0.2 8.0 -9.6 0.0 -1.3 -0.4 2.7 -1.1 -3.3 -0.5 0.5 1.3 -0.3 -0.6

L atin America an d Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Brazil 13.6 5.1 -14.3 -9.5 -11.5 -5.3 -11.4 -9.6 -15.5 -1.5 0.0 2.4 4.2 0.5

Mexico 6.9 1.6 -5.4 3.0 2.7 8.4 1.9 -0.6 -4.5 -1.6 -0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0

Argentina -4.7 -5.3 -9.3 -16.9 -13.5 -15.1 -17.5 -20.9 -34.2 -10.5 -9.7 -1.0 -0.9 -0.4

Colombia 13.6 2.7 2.9 -3.9 0.3 -4.1 -5.8 -5.7 -10.7 -1.6 -3.7 1.2 4.1 1.1

Middle Eas t an d North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Saudi Arabia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Iran -2.0 -5.1 -13.0 -32.1 -3.2 0.2 -45.7 -50.1 -50.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -1.8

Egypt -1.4 -5.2 -2.1 -11.7 -9.8 -13.0 -12.7 -11.2 -3.9 -0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -1.4

Algeria -1.8 1.1 -6.2 -2.3 -4.5 -4.0 0.1 -1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 -1.2 -0.3

Sou th As ia 3 .8 -2 .0 -1 1 .7 -7 .5 -6 .4 -2 .9 -9 .3 -1 0 .7 -1 0 .1 -0 .1 -0 .1 2 .2 1 .1 1 .1

India 5.9 -2.0 -12.6 -8.8 -7.2 -3.3 -11.2 -12.6 -12.3 -0.4 -0.2 2.0 1.0 1.7

Pakistan -4.1 -1.4 -7.5 -8.1 -7.5 -6.4 -8.2 -10.0 -5.4 1.4 0.4 5.2 2.3 -1.1

Bangladesh -0.8 -6.0 -9.5 4.8 4.7 5.1 5.1 4.4 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2

Sri Lanka 1.7 2.3 -13.4 -1.2 -6.1 2.6 0.2 -1.4 -3.0 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1

Su b-Sah aran Africa -6 .6 -5 .2 -3 .2 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .4 -0 .2 0 .2 -0 .3

South Africa 15.0 0.8 -11.5 -15.0 -13.4 -14.4 -17.4 -14.5 -17.6 -4.7 -0.7 1.9 1.9 1.3

Nigeria -0.8 -3.1 -1.9 -0.3 1.1 0.4 -1.3 -1.3 -3.3 -0.7 -2.3 -0.4 1.6 0.2

Memo:

OECD 9.1 5.6 -1.5 -2.9 -0.6 -3.0 -4.2 -3.9 -2.6 -0.8 0.0 -0.1 1.7 1.3

Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.8 Ex ch an ge Rates (USD/L CU)(annual percent change except m o nthly data which is change o ver prev io us m o nth a/)

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4

2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May Ju n e

World .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

High - in come cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 9.3 5.7 -1.3 -2.8 -0.6 -3.1 -3.9 -3.5 -1.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 1.4 0.3

United States (SDR/USD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Japan 6.7 10.1 -0.1 -18.2 -14.1 -18.8 -20.5 -19.1 -10.1 1.7 -0.2 -0.2 0.7 -0.2

Euro Area .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United Kingdom -1.0 3.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.4 -2.9 -1.8 0.8 6.8 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.5

Other high income .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0

Singapore 6.7 8.4 0.6 -0.1 2.1 1.2 -1.7 -2.2 -2.5 0.5 -0.1 1.0 0.2 0.1

Taiwan (China) 4.9 7.2 -0.6 -0.4 0.7 -0.8 -0.2 -1.4 -2.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.6 0.3 0.5

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Eas t As ia an d Pacific 7 .9 0 .0 -4 .7 -7 .2 -4 .3 -3 .5 -8 .0 -1 2 .4 -1 3 .2 1 .4 3 .1 -0 .4 -0 .4 -2 .3

China 0.9 4.7 2.5 2.6 1.4 2.9 3.7 2.5 2.0 -0.5 -1.5 -0.8 -0.2 0.1

Indonesia 14.5 3.6 -6.5 -10.2 -6.4 -5.0 -10.9 -17.0 -18.0 2.0 4.4 -0.5 -0.5 -3.0

Thailand 8.2 4.0 -1.9 1.1 4.0 4.6 -0.4 -3.4 -8.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 -0.7 0.1

Malaysia 9.4 5.3 -1.0 -2.0 -0.7 1.4 -3.7 -4.7 -6.5 -0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia -5 .8 -3 2 .2 -3 2 .2 -5 .9 -4 .6 -5 .6 -5 .9 -7 .4 -1 0 .2 -1 .6 -1 .1 -1 .0 -0 .8 -1 .1

Russian Federation 4.6 3.3 -5.3 -2.5 -0.9 -1.9 -2.6 -4.6 -13.2 -4.3 -2.2 1.3 2.4 1.4

Turkey 3.1 -10.3 -6.7 -5.5 0.6 -1.9 -8.5 -11.4 -19.3 0.5 -0.2 4.1 1.7 -1.4

Poland 3.4 1.8 -8.9 3.0 2.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.5 0.1

Czech Republic -0.2 8.0 -9.6 0.0 -1.3 -0.4 2.7 -1.1 -3.3 0.5 1.3 -0.3 -0.6 -1.0

L atin America an d Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Brazil 13.6 5.1 -14.3 -9.5 -11.5 -5.3 -11.4 -9.6 -15.5 0.0 2.4 4.3 0.4 -0.6

Mexico 6.9 1.6 -5.4 3.0 2.7 8.4 1.9 -0.6 -4.5 -0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 -0.5

Argentina -4.7 -5.3 -9.3 -16.9 -13.5 -15.1 -17.5 -20.9 -34.2 -9.7 -1.0 -1.1 -0.2 -1.1

Colombia 13.6 2.7 2.9 -3.9 0.3 -4.1 -5.8 -5.7 -10.7 -3.7 1.2 4.1 1.1 1.5

Middle Eas t an d North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Saudi Arabia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Iran -2.0 -5.1 -13.0 -32.1 -3.2 0.2 -45.7 -50.1 -50.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -1.7 -0.3

Egypt -1.4 -5.2 -2.1 -11.7 -9.8 -13.0 -12.7 -11.2 -3.9 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -1.4 -0.9

Algeria -1.8 1.1 -6.2 -2.3 -4.5 -4.0 0.1 -1.0 0.8 0.4 0.4 -1.2 -0.3 -0.5

Sou th As ia 3 .8 -2 .0 -1 1 .7 -7 .5 -6 .4 -2 .9 -9 .3 -1 0 .7 -1 0 .1 -0 .1 2 .2 1 .3 1 .0 -0 .5

India 5.9 -2.0 -12.6 -8.8 -7.2 -3.3 -11.2 -12.6 -12.3 -0.2 2.0 1.2 1.4 -0.7

Pakistan -4.1 -1.4 -7.5 -8.1 -7.5 -6.4 -8.2 -10.0 -5.4 0.4 5.2 2.3 -1.1 0.2

Bangladesh -0.8 -6.0 -9.5 4.8 4.7 5.1 5.1 4.4 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0

Sri Lanka 1.7 2.3 -13.4 -1.2 -6.1 2.6 0.2 -1.4 -3.0 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1

Su b-Sah aran Africa -6 .7 -5 .1 -3 .1 -0 .5 -0 .4 -0 .2 0 .2 -0 .5 -0 .7

South Africa 15.0 0.8 -11.5 -15.0 -13.4 -14.4 -17.4 -14.5 -17.6 -0.7 1.9 1.9 1.3 -2.6

Nigeria -0.8 -3.1 -1.9 -0.3 1.1 0.4 -1.3 -1.3 -3.3 -2.3 -0.4 1.6 0.2 -0.7

Memo:

OECD 9.2 5.6 -1.5 -2.7 -0.4 -2.8 -3.9 -3.6 -2.4 0.0 -0.1 1.8 1.3 0.3

Table A.7 Ex ch an ge Rates (USD/L CU)(annual percent change except m o nthly data which is change o ver prev io us m o nth a/)

Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4

2 0 0 0 -1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Mar Apr May Ju n e

World 3.0 4.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2

High - in come cou n tries 2.1 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8

Industrial countries 1.9 2.6 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5

United States 2.5 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.1

Japan -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.4 -0.6 -0.3 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 3.4 3.7 ..

Euro Area 2.0 2.6 2.3 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5

United Kindgom 2.8 5.2 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.2 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.7

Other high income 2.6 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5

Hong Kong (China) 0.1 5.3 4.0 4.3 3.6 4.1 5.3 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.6

Singapore 1.6 5.2 4.6 2.3 3.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 2.0 2.8 2.0

Taiwan (China) 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.0 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.2 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7

Dev elopin g cou n tries 5.3 7.5 6.4 .. 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.4 3.4

Eas t As ia an d Pacific 2 .6 5 .6 2 .8 . . 3 .4 2 .6 3 .2 3 .4 4 .1 4 .3 4 .0 3 .9 3 .2 2 .9

China 2.0 5.5 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 1.8 2.6 2.4

Indonesia 8.1 5.3 4.0 6.4 4.5 5.0 8.0 8.1 7.8 8.3 7.3 7.2 7.3 6.4

Thailand 2.5 3.8 3.0 2.2 3.1 2.4 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.4

Malaysia 2.2 3.2 1.7 2.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.3

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 8 .2 8 .7 6 .2 3 .5 3 .7 3 .1 1 .8 2 .0 2 .2 2 .7 1 .7 1 .5 1 .5

Russian Federation 13.3 8.4 5.1 6.8 7.2 7.3 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.1 7.0 7.4 7.7 7.8

Turkey 6.5 8.9 7.5 7.2 7.0 8.2 7.5 8.0 7.7 8.4 9.4 9.7 9.3

Poland 3.5 4.2 3.7 1.2 1.6 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5

Czech Republic 2.7 1.9 3.3 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.0

L atin America an d Caribbean 7 .2 7 .7 7 .0 . . 3 .8 3 .9 3 .7 3 .7 3 .4 3 .4 3 .4 3 .5 3 .9 3 .7

Brazil 7.0 6.6 5.4 6.4 6.9 7.0 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.1

Mexico 5.1 3.4 4.1 3.8 3.7 4.4 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.5 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7

Argentina 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.6 10.8 10.4 10.6 10.6 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Colombia 5.9 3.4 3.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.8

Middle Eas t an d North Africa 7 .1 1 1 .9 1 1 .7 . . 6 .4 5 .7 4 .5 4 .8 3 .1 4 .1 2 .8 2 .5 2 .8 2 .6

Saudi Arabia 2.4 3.9 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7

Iran 14.8 20.6 19.9 39.2 39.6 42.9 42.9 32.7 23.7 28.9 19.7 17.4 16.5 ..

Egypt - .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria 3.4 5.8 9.7 4.1 6.4 4.6 3.5 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.8 ..

Sou th As ia 9 .8 9 .5 . . 7 .4 7 .2 8 .0 8 .4 7 .3 7 .3 7 .4 7 .3 7 .5 7 .2

India 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.7 9.5 9.6 10.4 8.4 8.9 8.3 8.5 8.3 7.3

Pakistan 11.9 9.7 7.7 7.4 5.6 8.1 9.7 8.1 7.9 8.6 9.2 8.3 8.2

Bangladesh 6.0 10.3 6.5 7.5 7.1 8.1 7.7 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.0

Sri Lanka 10.4 6.7 7.5 6.9 9.2 6.8 6.1 5.7 4.3 4.5 4.2 5.0 3.2 2.7

Su b-Sah aran Africa 8 .6 9 .6 1 0 .7 . . 4 .6 4 .3 5 .0 4 .5 5 .1 4 .3 4 .4 4 .7 3 .2 4 .9

South Africa 5.3 5.0 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 6.3 5.4 5.9 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.9 6.8

Nigeria 12.5 10.8 12.2 8.5 9.2 8.6 8.2 8.0 8.0 8.3 7.8 7.8 7.8 8.0

Memo:

OECD 7.4 2.7 2.1 .. 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5

Developing excl. China 7.9 8.5 8.1 .. 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.4 3.4

Developing oil exporters 4.5 9.7 9.4 .. 4.1 4.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.7

Developing non-oil exporters 6.7 5.2 .. 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.4 3.3

Asian high tech exporters .. ..

Table A.8 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)

a/ The CPI aggregates are the medians of the growth rates.

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4

2 0 0 0 -1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Mar Apr May Ju n e

World 3.0 4.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2

High - in come cou n tries 2.1 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8

Industrial countries 1.9 2.6 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5

United States 2.5 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.0 2.1 2.1

Japan -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.4 -0.6 -0.3 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 3.4 3.7 ..

Euro Area 2.0 2.6 2.3 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5

United Kindgom 2.8 5.2 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.2 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.7

Other high income 2.6 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5

Hong Kong (China) 0.1 5.3 4.0 4.3 3.6 4.1 5.3 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.6

Singapore 1.6 5.2 4.6 2.3 3.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 2.0 2.8 2.0

Taiwan (China) 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.0 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.2 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7

Dev elopin g cou n tries 5.3 7.5 6.4 .. 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.4 3.4

Eas t As ia an d Pacific 2 .6 5 .6 2 .8 . . 3 .4 2 .6 3 .2 3 .4 4 .1 4 .3 4 .0 3 .9 3 .2 2 .9

China 2.0 5.5 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 1.8 2.6 2.4

Indonesia 8.1 5.3 4.0 6.4 4.5 5.0 8.0 8.1 7.8 8.3 7.3 7.2 7.3 6.4

Thailand 2.5 3.8 3.0 2.2 3.1 2.4 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.4

Malaysia 2.2 3.2 1.7 2.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.9 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.3

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 8 .2 8 .7 6 .2 3 .5 3 .7 3 .1 1 .8 2 .0 2 .2 2 .7 1 .7 1 .5 1 .5

Russian Federation 13.3 8.4 5.1 6.8 7.2 7.3 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.1 7.0 7.4 7.7 7.8

Turkey 6.5 8.9 7.5 7.2 7.0 8.2 7.5 8.0 7.7 8.4 9.4 9.7 9.3

Poland 3.5 4.2 3.7 1.2 1.6 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5

Czech Republic 2.7 1.9 3.3 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.0

L atin America an d Caribbean 7 .2 7 .7 7 .0 . . 3 .8 3 .9 3 .7 3 .7 3 .4 3 .4 3 .4 3 .5 3 .9 3 .7

Brazil 7.0 6.6 5.4 6.4 6.9 7.0 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.1

Mexico 5.1 3.4 4.1 3.8 3.7 4.4 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.5 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7

Argentina 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.6 10.8 10.4 10.6 10.6 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Colombia 5.9 3.4 3.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.8

Middle Eas t an d North Africa 7 .1 1 1 .9 1 1 .7 . . 6 .4 5 .7 4 .5 4 .8 3 .1 4 .1 2 .8 2 .5 2 .8 2 .6

Saudi Arabia 2.4 3.9 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7

Iran 14.8 20.6 19.9 39.2 39.6 42.9 42.9 32.7 23.7 28.9 19.7 17.4 16.5 ..

Egypt - .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria 3.4 5.8 9.7 4.1 6.4 4.6 3.5 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.8 ..

Sou th As ia 9 .8 9 .5 . . 7 .4 7 .2 8 .0 8 .4 7 .3 7 .3 7 .4 7 .3 7 .5 7 .2

India 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.7 9.5 9.6 10.4 8.4 8.9 8.3 8.5 8.3 7.3

Pakistan 11.9 9.7 7.7 7.4 5.6 8.1 9.7 8.1 7.9 8.6 9.2 8.3 8.2

Bangladesh 6.0 10.3 6.5 7.5 7.1 8.1 7.7 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.0

Sri Lanka 10.4 6.7 7.5 6.9 9.2 6.8 6.1 5.7 4.3 4.5 4.2 5.0 3.2 2.7

Su b-Sah aran Africa 8 .6 9 .6 1 0 .7 . . 4 .6 4 .3 5 .0 4 .5 5 .1 4 .3 4 .4 4 .7 3 .2 4 .9

South Africa 5.3 5.0 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 6.3 5.4 5.9 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.9 6.8

Nigeria 12.5 10.8 12.2 8.5 9.2 8.6 8.2 8.0 8.0 8.3 7.8 7.8 7.8 8.0

Memo:

OECD 7.4 2.7 2.1 .. 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5

Developing excl. China 7.9 8.5 8.1 .. 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.4 3.4

Developing oil exporters 4.5 9.7 9.4 .. 4.1 4.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.7

Developing non-oil exporters 6.7 5.2 .. 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.4 3.3

Asian high tech exporters .. ..

Table A.8 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)

a/ The CPI aggregates are the medians of the growth rates.

Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4

2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May

World

High - in come cou n tries b -1 .4 5 -1 .4 5 -1 .4 5 -1 .4 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Industrial countries -1.44 -1.44 -1.44 -1.44 .. .. .. .. ..

United States (US Federal funds rate) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Japan (Discount Rate) 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 1.00 1.25 0.88 0.55 0.75 0.58 0.50 0.35 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

United Kingdom (Clearing bank's base rate) 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 7.50 8.50 9.50 10.50 10.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Other high income .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (Discount rate) 3.13 3.13 3.13 3.13 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19

Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.93 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88

Dev elopin g cou n tries

Eas t As ia an d Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 7.18 7.18 7.18 7.18 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00

Indonesia (Interbank 3m rate) 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 5.75 5.80 6.66 7.39 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50

Thailand (Repurchase Rate) 1.48 2.96 2.96 2.58 2.75 2.66 2.50 2.41 2.20 2.25 2.25 2.08 2.00 2.00

Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 4.48 5.48 6.48 7.48 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 10.87 10.87 10.87 10.87 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25

Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 17.05 17.05 17.05 17.05 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50

Poland (Interbank 2 week) 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 3.73 3.03 2.51 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50

Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 3.49 3.49 3.49 3.49 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

L atin America an d Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 12.45 12.45 12.45 12.45 7.25 7.63 8.63 9.64 10.52 10.28 10.54 10.75 10.99 11.00

Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 4.38 4.00 3.94 3.57 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50

Argentina (30 Day deposit) 11.43 11.43 11.43 11.43 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 9.68 9.68 9.68 9.68 3.93 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.30 3.51

Middle Eas t an d North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Saudi Arabia (Interbank 3m rate) 2.89 2.89 2.89 2.89 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95

Egypt (IMF discount rate) 10.17 10.17 10.17 10.17 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria (IMF discount rate) 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sou th As ia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.80 7.34 7.28 7.67 7.92 7.78 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00

Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 10.63 10.63 10.63 10.63 9.50 9.45 9.09 9.74 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00

Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Su b-Sah aran Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

South Africa (Repo rate) 11.61 11.61 11.61 11.61 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.34 5.07 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50

Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.9 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest

month is the value on the date the data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day before the note

becomes available).

July 17, 2014

JULY 2014

Av erage 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 4

2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May

World

High - in come cou n tries b -1 .4 5 -1 .4 5 -1 .4 5 -1 .4 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Industrial countries -1.44 -1.44 -1.44 -1.44 .. .. .. .. ..

United States (US Federal funds rate) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

Japan (Discount Rate) 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 1.00 1.25 0.88 0.55 0.75 0.58 0.50 0.35 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

United Kingdom (Clearing bank's base rate) 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 7.50 8.50 9.50 10.50 10.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Other high income .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (Discount rate) 3.13 3.13 3.13 3.13 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19

Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.93 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88

Dev elopin g cou n tries

Eas t As ia an d Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 7.18 7.18 7.18 7.18 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00

Indonesia (Interbank 3m rate) 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 5.75 5.80 6.66 7.39 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50

Thailand (Repurchase Rate) 1.48 2.96 2.96 2.58 2.75 2.66 2.50 2.41 2.20 2.25 2.25 2.08 2.00 2.00

Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 4.48 5.48 6.48 7.48 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00

Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 10.87 10.87 10.87 10.87 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25

Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 17.05 17.05 17.05 17.05 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50

Poland (Interbank 2 week) 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 3.73 3.03 2.51 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50

Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 3.49 3.49 3.49 3.49 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

L atin America an d Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 12.45 12.45 12.45 12.45 7.25 7.63 8.63 9.64 10.52 10.28 10.54 10.75 10.99 11.00

Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 4.38 4.00 3.94 3.57 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50

Argentina (30 Day deposit) 11.43 11.43 11.43 11.43 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 9.68 9.68 9.68 9.68 3.93 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.30 3.51

Middle Eas t an d North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Saudi Arabia (Interbank 3m rate) 2.89 2.89 2.89 2.89 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95

Egypt (IMF discount rate) 10.17 10.17 10.17 10.17 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria (IMF discount rate) 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sou th As ia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.80 7.34 7.28 7.67 7.92 7.78 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00

Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 10.63 10.63 10.63 10.63 9.50 9.45 9.09 9.74 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00

Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Su b-Sah aran Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

South Africa (Repo rate) 11.61 11.61 11.61 11.61 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.34 5.07 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50

Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.9 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest

month is the value on the date the data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day before the note

becomes available).