World Bank Document...Riordan (G-3, forex, edits), Nadia Spivak (trade), Betty Dow and Shane...

January 28, 2010

The External Environment for Developing Countries

Overview

This brief was prepared by a team of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG), led by Elliot (Mick) Riordan, comprising

Riordan (G-3, forex, edits), Nadia Spivak (trade), Betty Dow and Shane Streifel (commodities), Eung Ju Kim (finance), Cristina

Savescu (IP) and Sabah Mirza (Annex). The note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group.

January 2010

Shifts in the tenor of the global economy are apparent, with world trade picking up to high dou-

ble-digit growth at year-end 2009 with OECD economies—under the influence of government stimulus

programs—beginning to import at substantial rates (United States 35%, Japan and Germany 40%,

(saar)). With already-strong demand in developing countries, world import volume is growing at 40%+

(saar), sufficient to spur exports across a wide array of countries. World production is easing to more

sustainable rates in the wake of immediate recovery from recession. Global IP growth dipped to 10% in

November from 13% in the third quarter.

New forecasts from the IMF and World Bank raise growth projections for 2010-2011 from earlier

reports, but paint a picture of only modest GDP gains in the recovery period.

Mixed growth outturns expected across the OECD, with the United States likely to experience a

sharp gain in GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2009 (4.5- to 5.5%, saar) on the back of strong con-

sumer outlays, end to de-stocking and growth in business investment. In contrast, GDP in both Europe

and Japan is anticipated to be subdued, as households continue to refrain from spending.

Capital flows increased from $40 billion to $45 billion in December, carrying flows for 2009 to $348

billion—down 11% from $390 billion in 2008. Banking increased sharply at year-end, but lending fell to

$123 billion in the year from $257 billion in 2008. Bond issuance was robust amid increasing risk appe-

tite, surging from $65 billion in 2008 to $115 billion. And equity placements jumped 60% to $109 billion

in 2009. An element of risk that emerged with more force in January is that of sovereign debt default,

weighing especially upon several countries in the Euro Area, including Greece, Portugal and Spain. The

net amount of credit default swaps outstanding on 54 sovereigns has soared 14.2% since October.

Commodity prices up on demand expectations, crude oil breached $80/bbl in January, on

colder than normal weather in the United States; but metals and several ag commodities have increased

on supply shortfalls combined with expectations of stronger demand ahead.

World trade picks up steam

as stimulus measures boost imports

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09

OECD imports

Developing imports

Source: World Bank, Development Prospects Group.

goods import volumes, OECD and developing countries (ch%, saar)

World production moderates

toward more sustainable rates

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20


Developing excl China

High Income

World

industrial production (percent change, saar)

Source: World Bank, Development Prospects Group.

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53039

January 28, 2010

page 2 External Environment for Developing Countries

Global Indicators

Global Indicators

(Percentage change per annum, unless otherwise specified)

2007 2008 2009e 2010f

GDP volume: World 3.9 1.7 -2.2 2.7

Memo item: World GDP at PPP weights 5.0 2.7 -1.0 3.5

High-income countries 2.6 0.4 -3.3 2.3

Developing countries 8.1 5.6 1.2 5.2

Industrial production: World 4.8 0.6 ... ...

High-income countries 2.6 -1.8 ... ...

Developing countries 9.8 5.9 ... ...

Export volume (GNFS): World 7.2 3.0 -14.4 4.3

High-income countries 6.2 2.1 -15.4 3.4

Developing countries 9.8 5.3 -11.7 6.4

Trade Prices ($): Manufacturing (MUV) 5.5 6.0 -4.9 1.5

Oil ($/bbl) 71.1 97.0 61.8 76.0

Non-oil commodities 17.1 21.0 -21.6 5.3

Nominal interest rates:

$LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 5.20 3.20 1.15 1.80

€LIBOR (6m percent p.a.) 4.30 4.80 1.50 2.20

Financial flows

FDI ($billion) 520 583 ... ...

Gross Capital flowsa ($billion) 652 389 347 317317317 ...

Equity placement ($bn) 194 68 109 107107107 ...

Bond financing ($bn) 146 65 115 117117117 ...

Lending ($bn) 312 257 123 939393 ...

Source: DECPG, January 2010. Estimates and projections for 2009 and 2010 based on GEP-2010, released January 21, 2010.

Note: a. Gross inflows 2009 based on preliminary year-to-date figures. Figures in bold represent changes this month.

January 28, 2010


United States

Labor markets and spending. U.S. labor mar-

kets are improving, echoing more optimistic business

attitudes that economic recovery has stronger roots.

Job loss was 85,000 in December compared to a re-

vised net gain of 4,000 jobs in November (first monthly

pickup in 2 years). Job cuts have eased in the fourth

quarter, when an average 69,000 jobs were lost per

month, contrasted with monthly job loss averaging

690,000 in the first quarter of 2009. This has lead to a

pick-up in personal income and non-auto retail spend-

ing to growth of 3.4%-and 7.9% in November and De-

cember respectively (saar). In the wake of the mark-

down to third quarter GDP from 2.8% to 2.2% growth,

analysts now look for fourth quarter output to advance

4.5-to 5.5% (saar), as inventory liquidation ends, and

consumer and business spending picks-up.

Driving force. Manufacturing has been the driving

force for growth in the recovery phase. ISM headline

indices of activity stood at 54.9 for factory output and

49.8 for services in January (where „50‟ marks the line

between growth and decline). However, at year-end

factory orders and manufacturing production displayed

signs of easing. Gains for durables orders dropped

sharply from 16% in the third quarter to 2% in Decem-

ber (saar); and production halved from 12% growth to

6% between October and December. These may be

temporary factors related to the shift from inventory

depletion to accumulation by business, suggesting that

manufacturing will rebound into 2010. Federal Reserve

surveys for January activity in Philadelphia and New

York tend to confirm this view.

Price pressures. Following 6 months in which

headline CPI declined on a year-on-year basis, infla-

tion breached into positive territory once more during

November and December (1.5% for the latter month (y/

y)). Though not an immediate concern for the Federal

Reserve, the upward price pressures are due to in-

creases in energy and materials costs in international

markets, amplified by dollar weakness. Recent in-

creases in PPI and CPI headline indices on an annual-

ized basis (7.5- and 3.5% respectively in December,

saar), point to continued upward pressure in coming

months.

Improvements in labor markets now setting the tone for increased spending

change in employment (‘000, 3mma) [L]; income and retail sales x autos, ch% (saar) [R]

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100


Source: U.S. Departments of Labor and Commerce.

retail x autos [R]

change in employment [L]

Pick-up in energy and commodity

prices lifts CPI to positive territory (y/y)consumer and producer price indices, ch% (saar and 3mma yr/yr)

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

1/1/2007 5/1/2007 9/1/2007 1/1/2008 5/1/2008 9/1/2008 1/1/2009 5/1/2009 9/1/2009

Source: U.S. Department of Labor.

CPI saar

CPI yr/yr

PPI saar

Durable goods orders and factory output

momentum fade in late 2009 durable goods orders, mfgr output, ch% (saar) [L]; ISM mfgr headline index (3mma) [R]

35

40

45

50

55

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20


Durable goods orders [L]

Manufacturing

production [L]

ISM Mfgr index [R]

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce,Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

January 28, 2010


Japan

Household stress. Japan‟s households continue

to refrain from spending, with consumer confidence

slipping to a 6-month low in December, indicating

unease as the immediate effects of the government‟s

stimulus plans have begun to fade. Moreover, politi-

cal scandals among the leadership of the new gov-

ernment, as well as changes in key personnel, such

as the Minister of Finance, leave consumers uncer-

tain as to whether a “second stimulus” will in fact oc-

cur. 18 months of declining wages and near-record

unemployment have combined to leave household

spending in negative growth territory (down 1% in

November (y/y)), with retail volumes off 0.8% as of

December, a sixteenth month of declining sales.

Investment soft. Business and residential invest-

ment have been among the weaker spots in Japan‟s

recovery, with corporate capital outlays declining at

double-digit rates in the third quarter (10.6%, saar)

and residential investment falling 28%, as the reces-

sion decimated the upturn in homebuilding of 2008.

The large revisions to third-quarter GDP from initial

estimates of robust 4.8% advances to growth of 1.3%

was tied to overestimates of corporate willingness to

invest. Machinery orders in November dropped a full

8% from October (m/m), reaching lowest levels since

May 1987. Orders from service establishments

dropped a full 10.6%, while those from all industries

(a leading indicator of business investment in 3 to 6

months) fell to an all-time low. Prospects for invest-

ment are cloudy at best.

Exports up. On a brighter note, exports increased

in year-on-year terms for the first in 15 months in

December, easing concerns that the economy is

headed for a double dip recession. Booming import

demand from China, which overtook the United

States as Japan‟s largest export destination in 2009,

has played a large part in this rebound; but import

demand across OECD countries is now picking up

sharply under the influence of government stimulus

programs. Though soft in November, machinery or-

ders are running at a 30-to 40% pace (saar), export

volumes breached 50% growth in December (saar),

and manufacturing output eased to 20% from peaks

nearer 60% in July (saar), largely due to falling do-

mestic demand.

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3-2008 Q4-2008 Q1-2009 Q2-2009 Q3-2009

Corp GDI RES GDI

fixed investment, business and residential (homebuilding), ch% saar

Japan’s corporate and residential investment(homebuilding) in the doldrums

Source: Japan Cabinet Office (EPA).

Japan exports up sharply at year end

as OECD imports reviveJapan machinery orders, export volumes and industrial production, ch% saar

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60


Machinery orders

Japan export volumes

Manufacturing production

Source: Japan EPA through Thomson/Datastream.

Japan spending under pressure from rising unemployment, falling wages

unemployment rate (%) [L]; real HH expenditures, cash wages, ch% (y/y) [R]

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0


Source: Japan Cabinet Office (EPA).

Cash wages [R]

Unemployment rate [L]

January 28, 2010


Euro Area

Europeans more optimistic. Euro Area busi-

ness and households have turned more upbeat

about prospects over the last months, though figures

on GDP, retail spending and investment offer only

modest encouragement for recovery. German busi-

ness, in particular has turned more bullish that ex-

ports (which have regained strength) and industrial

activity will spill over to households and investment.

Consumers are also taking heart from an upward

revision to third quarter GDP (to 1.7% from 1.5%

saar), and signs that the U.S. recovery is building

momentum. But confidence indicators have “jumped

the gun” earlier, and against the current background

may be doing so once more.

Spending in the doldrums. The central weak-

ness in the economy is the continued worsening of

labor markets, which has placed a damper on con-

sumer spending. The number of unemployed

breached 15 million in November 2009, carrying the

unemployment rate to 9.9%; this contrasts with 11

million unemployed (7.3% rate) at the start of 2008.

Euro Area real consumption declined in 4 of 6 quar-

ters since early 2008, and retail sales volumes in the

Zone continue to retrench- 2.6% below year-earlier

levels in November. Government stimulus measures

(auto incentives, for example) carried positive effects,

but these have since tailed off. And signs of spillover

from strength in manufacturing to other sectors have

yet to emerge.

A brighter spot. German export orders and ex-

port shipments picked-up sharply toward year-end,

as import demand across most of the OECD has

been stimulated by public expenditures and accom-

modate monetary policies--complementing the surge

in developing country imports already in progress.

Though easing into November, export order growth is

tracking at 25-to 35% (saar), while export volumes

have ratcheted from 20% gains during the third quar-

ter to 50% by November (saar). Manufacturing output

has been restrained to a 15% pace by weak demand

from domestic firms. Similar developments are un-

derway in France, and to a lesser degree in Italy,

suggesting that European recovery will be largely

export-led for several quarters to come.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

75

88

100

113

Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10

Euro Area sentiment up in the new yearIFO survey (overall and expectations) [left]; Euro Area consumer confidence [right]

IFO- expectations [L]

Source: IFO and European Commission.

Euro Area Consumer Confidence [R]

IFO- overall [L]

Euro Area unemployment worsens quickly placing damper on spending

number of unemployed (millions) [L]; retail sales volume, ch% (3mma, y/y) [R]

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


Source: Eurostat through Thomson/Datastream.

Euro Area

retail volumes [R]

Number of unemployed [L]

German exports pick-up at end-year on

strong orders for capital equipment German export orders, export volumes and industrial production, ch% saar

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09

Export orders

German export volumes

Manufacturing production

Source: Bundesbank through Thomson/Datastream.

January 28, 2010


Industrial Production

Global production moderates. World indus-

trial production grew 10% in November (seasonally

adjusted annualized rate (saar)) down from 13% in

the third quarter. The pace of slowing was similar for

high-income and developing countries (excluding

China). For the former, output eased to 8.9% in No-

vember; for the latter it slowed to 9.3%. A general

tailing-off of fiscal stimulus over the course of 2010 is

expected to result in further moderation of output

growth over coming quarters. But, easing from recent

robust rates tied to the rebound from recession is to

be expected, as global economic conditions move in

the direction of “normalization”.

China output grew rapidly at year end.

Strong demand from households, government and

business kept industrial output growth above trend in

the fourth quarter of 2009. Gains in the final quarter

of 2009 registered 15% (saar) down only marginally

from the 17% of the third quarter. A noticeable

strengthening in external demand has also played a

role in supporting production. Looking forward, with

demand for China‟s exports expected to strengthen

in coming months, and both private domestic con-

sumption and investment growth underpinned to

strong gains by continuing stimulus (though recent

moves to tighten rapid credit expansion may place a

modest damper on demand) industrial production

should continue to grow at above trend rates in com-

ing months and quarters.

European output up on capital goods. Mo-

mentum in Euro Area output has also slowed, with

production gaining 3% in November (saar) compared

to 9% growth during the third quarter. Output levels

remain 10% below November 2008. Increases in

demand for intermediate and capital goods (10% and

8.5% respectively) were the main sources of growth

for production in November, with consumer demand

in the doldrums. Retail sales declined 3% in the three

months to November (saar), contrasted with a falloff

of 1.7% in the third quarter. Demand for European

exports is firming, and production for export is likely

to gain substantial momentum, with overall output

still restrained by exceptionally soft domestic de-

mand.

Momentum of industrial production is

moderating

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20


Developing excl China

High Income

World

Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data

Industrial production (percent change, saar)

Chinese output momentum supported by

domestic demand and a pick-up in exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40


3m/3m saar (right axis)

Year-on-year (left axis)



Euro zone production rises on stronger

demand for intermediate and capital goods

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10


3m/3m saar

Year-on-year



January 28, 2010


International Trade

Imbalances stabilizing at low levels. The

global current account balance—the sum of the ab-

solute values of national balances—diminished from

5.9% of GDP in 2008 to 3.9% in 2009, but is pro-

jected to increase somewhat to 4.1% by 2011. In

large part this is due to adjustments recorded in the

United States and China. In June 2009, the U.S.

trade deficit narrowed to its lowest level since late-

2002, an annualized deficit of $490 billion. Since then

it has increased slightly, by about $100 billion, re-

flecting higher oil prices in the second half of the year

and a nascent recovery in domestic demand. Con-

currently, China‟s trade surplus diminished to its low-

est level since early-2006 in August 2009 before ris-

ing unevenly over the next few months.

U.S. and German export orders ease. The

bounce-back of industrial production in high income,

export-oriented economies was driven by a resur-

gence of external demand from developing countries,

particularly China. In recent months, however, the

expected reversal in the inventory draw-down cycle

in developing country importers has led to a de-

crease in export orders for industrial products from

high income countries such as Germany and the

United States. With the weakening in external de-

mand, the pace of expansion in industrial output has

begun to soften in high income countries, and further

growth will depend on a strengthening in domestic

consumer demand.

Developing country exports accelerating.

Trade volume growth (q/q, saar) continued to firm in

developing countries, particularly in East Asia and

the Pacific, and South Asia, and is gaining once

more in Latin America and the Caribbean, South Asia

and Europe and Central Asia, after flagging for a

brief period. The recovery in trade has lagged the

recovery in output, but has rebounded more sharply

as of late. Consequently, world export volumes are

now 0.2% higher than a year earlier (the first positive

reading in 13 months) even though global production

remains 3.9% below prior-year levels.

-1150

-950

-750

-550

-350

-150

50

250

450

Jan-00 Aug-01 Mar-03 Oct-04 May-06 Jan-08 Aug-09

USA total balance

China total balance

Global imbalances have begun to stabilize at lower levels

USA excluding oil

Total goods trade balance, minus all crude oil imports, US$ bn, sa. annualized

China excluding oil

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Haver Analytics.

Foreign demand for high-income

exports weakens in fourth quarter

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10

United States [R]

Germany [L]

Export orders, Germany and the United States (ISM)

Source: Bundesbank and Institute for Supply Management.

Export growth accelerating in

developing countriesvolume of exports, 3m/3m moving average, saar % chg

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90


Developing East Asia & Pacific

Latin America South Asia

Europe & Central Asia

Source: DECPG.

January 28, 2010


Commodity Prices

Oil prices up on cold January weather.

Prices surged above $80/bbl in early January on

colder weather and slowly improving fundamentals.

However stocks remain high, OECD demand is still

weak and prices are retreating below $80/bbl once

more. For 2009, oil prices averaged $61.80/bbl, a

drop of 36% from the preceding year due to the

slump in demand and ballooning stocks. However

prices revived from troughs of $42/bbl in February to

nearly $75/bbl by December—within the $70-$80/bbl

range that key OPEC producers have targeted as a

price they deem acceptable. An important driver for

higher prices over the year was 4mb/d in OPEC pro-

duction cuts, though compliance has slipped below

60 percent.

Crude oil stocks fall. U.S. crude oil inventories

dropped in the second half of 2009 largely due to

lower imports—but stocks are high by historical stan-

dards. Petroleum product stocks are larger still, par-

ticularly for middle distillate (heating oil and diesel).

Some of this overhang is currently burning off due to

cold weather; but diesel demand remains weak as

the slump in commercial road transport continues. At

end-December, 146 million barrels of oil were stored

at sea, of which crude comprised 51 million. Non-

OECD oil demand has rebounded steadily since

slumping in Q1-09, with demand in Q4-09 up 4.7% y/

y, led by an 8% jump in China. The contraction in

OECD demand eased in the final quarter of 2009, but

consumption remained 3% lower (y/y).

Natural gas and coal prices rebound. Natu-

ral gas prices have come off their lows but are well

below 2008 peaks. Prices for European gas imports

and LNG to Japan are generally linked to oil- with a

lag. But the price rebound has been limited tied to

weak gas demand, new LNG capacity and large

stocks—though cold weather is now biting into inven-

tories. U.S. gas prices, which are based on gas-to-

gas competition, have been extremely weak with a

slump in industrial demand and steady increases in

unconventional shale gas. Coal prices surged in

January due to cold weather and snow in China,

which has driven up demand while disrupting coal

transportation to power plants.

Oil prices rise above $80/bbl

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

$/bbl mb/d

Oil price [L scale]

OPEC Production [R]

Source: IEA and DECPG.

U.S. crude oil inventories

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

M bbl

5-year high-low ranges

Source: U.S. Department of Energy and DECPG.

Natural gas and coal prices

0

4

8

12

16

Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

US Gas

Europe Gas

LNG Japan

Coal Australia

$/mmbtu

Source: World Gas Intelligence, International Coal Report, and DECPG.

January 28, 2010


Agricultural prices revive across 2009. Av-

erage agriculture prices fell 22% in 2009, but (like

crude oil) rebounded sharply from lows earlier in the

year. Rubber and sugar prices doubled in the year to

December, with rubber up in step with oil prices,

while sugar now is affected by lower-than-anticipated

production in India and Brazil. Most beverage prices

recorded strong gains on various supply constraints,

but grains prices lagged on abundant harvests. In

December, fats and oils prices increased for a third

month, with palm oil prices up 9% on strong import

demand and lower production in Malaysia. Rice

prices also climbed 9% in the wake of reports that

the Philippines planned to buy 2 million tons of rice

due to crop damage from a typhoon in November.

Metals edge higher despite rising stocks.

Metals prices increased 4.1% in December (m/m)

capping a strong year of recovery as prices gained in

9 of 10 months from February troughs. Lead, copper

and zinc prices all more than doubled over the

course of the year. Advances were due to strong

import demand and restocking in China and substan-

tial producer cuts worldwide. Global inventories re-

main high, but restocking is expected to extend to the

OECD in 2010. In December, the largest gain was for

aluminum, up 12% tied to strong demand in China

and tight spot markets. Zinc increased 9% for similar

reasons, while copper increased 5% on rebounding

Chinese imports in November and December.

Gold prices slip in dollar terms. Gold prices

surged above $1,200/toz during December on contin-

ued strong investment demand and concerns about

inflation. Gold prices were boosted in early Novem-

ber as the IMF sold 200 tons to the Reserve Bank of

India, and later 12 tons to Sri Lanka and Mauritius,

signaling government appetite to hold gold. Prices

have since declined in dollar terms but euro prices

remain near their highs. An important driver has been

the growth in physically backed exchange-traded

funds (ETFs). In 2009 gold ETF holdings increased

by 563 tons or 47%—equivalent to 23% of global

gold mine production. More than three-quarters of

net inflows to ETFs came in Q1-09, as investors

rushed to “safe havens” to preserve capital.

100

150

200

250

300


Beverages

Raw Materials

Food

Agriculture prices continue to

increase on supply constraints(2000=100)

Source: DECPG.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000


Copper

Zinc

Aluminum

Lead

Metals prices rise on expectations

of stonger demand $/ton

Source: LME and DECPG.

Gold prices come off their highs

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

$/toz

Gold in dollars

Gold in euros

Source: LME and DECPG.

January 28, 2010


International Finance

Bank lending up at year-end. Though capital

flows increased moderately from $40 billion to $45

billion in December, flows for 2009 amounted to $348

billion—down 11% from $390 billion in 2008. Banking

increased sharply at year-end, a reflection of several

mega deals in trade (Brazil and Russia) and project

finance in energy (PNG), but lending fell to $123 bil-

lion in the year from $257 billion in 2008. Bond issu-

ance was robust amid increasing risk appetite, surg-

ing from $65 billion in 2008 to $115 billion. Issuance

was up in Latin America and Asia, but Emerging

Europe fell short of its 2008 levels tied to low issu-

ance from Russian borrowers. The ratio of non-

investment grade- to investment grade bonds de-

creased to 40% from 50% in 2008. And equity place-

ments jumped 60% to $109 billion in 2009 with ex-

ceptionally strong flows to China and Brazil.

EM sovereign bonds heating up. Sovereign

issuance activity got off to a strong start with the Re-

public of Turkey and the Philippines tapping the inter-

national market during the first week of 2010. The

pace accelerated with deals from Poland, Mexico,

and Indonesia bringing total EM sovereign borrowing

to $10.8 billion thus far in January. This represents

record volume of sovereign borrowing this early in a

year, and stands 50% higher than average January

issuance between 1998 and 2008 ($7.1 billion). With

borrowing programs typically front-loaded, January is

traditionally the busiest month of the year for sover-

eign issuers—accounting for some 20% of total issu-

ance in a year. As financing gaps grow, and borrow-

ing costs remain near record lows, more activity is

expected in the near future among sovereigns such

as Vietnam, Russia and Romania.

EM assets resilient this year. Emerging mar-

ket assets have seen modest gains thus far in Janu-

ary, continuing an upward path from last year‟s ro-

bust returns. EM equities climbed about 2.2% and

the EMBIG index, measuring returns on EM debt,

gained a modest 1.2%. Risk premiums investors de-

mand to own EM bonds over U.S. government debt

fell to lowest levels in 16 months in mid-January, as

growing optimism over the global economic recovery

prompted investors to buy riskier assets.

A surge in bank lending at year end

Source: DECPG.

Gross capital flows to emerging markets

$ billion

H1 Q3 Q4 Total H1 Q3 Q4 Dec Total

Total 258 82 50 390 110 99 139 45 348

Bonds 53 9 3 65 36 33 46 7 115

Banks 151 63 43 257 42 34 47 28 123

Equity 54 10 4 68 32 32 45 10 109

Lat. America 61 18 10 90 37 37 57 16 130

Bonds 17 1 2 20 15 18 29 5 61

E. Europe 99 35 23 157 22 21 28 8 71

Bonds 27 7 0.4 35 13 11 9 1 33

Asia 69 18 10 98 45 33 48 19 126

Bonds 7 0 0 7 6 3 7 0 16

Others 28 11 6 45 7 8 6 2 21

2008 2009

EM bond issuance activity

off to a strong start in 2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Avg. 1998-08 2009 2010

sovereign bond issuance, monthly, bn USD

Source: Dealogic and DECPG staff calculations.

EM assets appear fairly strong

at the start of 2010

300

350

400

450

500

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10

MSCI-EM$ index [L]

Source: JPMorgan-Chase and Bloomberg.

MSCI-EM in USD [L]; EMBIG bond index [R]

EMBIG bond index [R]

January 28, 2010


Currencies

Dollar up in January on improved views

for growth. After declining sharply from April 2009

to year-end against the major currencies, several

developments have combined to yield a moderate

rebound for the U.S. unit over January 2010—a 2.5%

gain vis-a-vis euro and 1.5% versus yen. Expecta-

tions for GDP growth for the fourth quarter have been

marked-up by leading analysts to a 4.5% annualized

pace, sufficient to provide “carryover” into early 2010

(GDP for Q4-09 is to be released Friday, January

29). Long rates have backed up by 30 basis points

since early November, likely in response to the

Fed‟s backing out of the Treasury and GSE markets

market at a point sooner than later. And there is evi-

dence that the so-called “carry trade” in dollars, fund-

ing flows to emerging markets, has come to a close-

at least for the immediate term.

Better growth in absolute and relative

terms. Tracking Consensus Economics LLP projec-

tions for GDP growth in 2010, prepared over con-

secutive months in 2009, shows a clear uptrend in

expectations for the United States from a mean 1.9%

in June 2009 to 2.9% growth as of January 2010. In

contrast, the consensus for the Euro Area, though

volatile over 2009, remained unchanged at 1.3% for

2010, while that for Japan gained a percentage point

to 1.3% (likely to be marked down in February read-

ings given recent political difficulties). The widening

growth gap in favor of the United States could prove

a factor underpinning further gains for the dollar.

End to the “carry trade”? The dollar‟s apparent

use as a currency funding trade into emerging mar-

ket securities may have come to a recent halt. With a

30 basis point backup in U.S. benchmark rates, a

leveling out of returns in the MSCI-All EM equity in-

dex, and recent Treasury TICS data pointing to a 2-

year record high level of net foreign purchases of

U.S. Treasuries (some $118 billion during Novem-

ber), incentives for increasing exposure to EM assets

through dollar borrowing may have peaked. This

would tend to boost the greenback‟s value over com-

ing months and quarters. The key risk for the dollar is

likely centered on the pipeline of trillions of dollars in

Treasury debt coming to market over the next years.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10

Expectations for growth move in U.S. favor

Consensus mean GDP growth: forecast for 2010 sampled during 2009/10

Source: Consensus Economics LLC.

Forecast Date in 2009/10:

Japan

Euro Area

United States

Higher U.S. long rates, apparent let-up in

so-called “carry trade” boost dollar

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10

MSCI-EM$ index [L]

Source: Morgan-Stanley and Thomson/Datastream.

MSCI-EM in USD, Jan-2 2009=100 [L]; U.S. yield on 10-year note [R]

U.S. 10-year note [R]

85.00

87.50

90.00

92.50

95.00

97.50

100.00

102.50

105.001.230

1.270

1.310

1.350

1.390

1.430

1.470

1.510

1.550

Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10

Source: Thomson/Datastream.

yen/USD

USD/Euro (inverse)

Dollar recoups 2.5% over 2010 to date on more upbeat growth expectations

USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]

January 28, 2010


Weights Average 2008 2009 2009 2009

2000 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct Nov

World 100.0 2.8 4.8 4.7 0.6 -20.4 -22.1 6.0 12.9 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.9

High-income c ountries 77.2 1.4 3.2 2.6 -1.8 -23.3 -31.2 1.2 12.7 1.0 0.9 -0.1 0.9

Industrial c ountries 72.7 1.4 3.3 2.7 -2.0 -23.0 -31.4 0.1 12.8 1.1 0.9 -0.2 0.9

United Sta te s 25.1 1.3 2.3 1.5 -2.2 -13.0 -19.0 -10.4 6.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.6

Japan 17.3 1.1 4.1 2.9 -3.2 -37.3 -61.6 34.0 32.2 1.6 2.0 0.5 2.5

Euro Are a 22.9 1.2 4.0 3.5 -2.0 -24.5 -31.5 -6.1 11.8 2.0 0.0 -0.4 0.3

United Kindgom 4.1 -0.4 0.0 0.3 -3.1 -17.4 -18.7 -2.3 -3.5 -2.6 1.3 0.0 0.3

Other high income 4.5 2.1 5.3 5.1 1.0 -24.6 -17.1 9.8 15.9 -0.1 2.3 -1.6 ..

Hong Kong (China ) 0.2 .. 2.5 -1.5 -6.6 -12.7 -9.6 -3.6 -7.7 -0.8 -0.9 .. ..

Singapore 0.4 6.3 12.1 6.2 -4.0 -16.5 -23.3 72.7 21.6 -4.1 -9.4 -0.2 -7.5

Ta iwan (China) 1.1 4.7 4.6 8.1 -1.3 -58.8 -31.5 100.4 40.6 -1.4 6.7 1.5 2.9

Developing countries 22.8 -210.3 8.8 9.8 5.9 -14.2 -1.6 15.3 13.4 0.4 1.2 0.9 ..

East Asia and Pacific 8.7 20.8 12.9 15.2 11.0 -9.1 11.2 26.5 14.0 0.8 1.5 1.0 ..

China 6.3 15.2 16.4 18.0 12.7 -7.2 15.0 29.1 15.6 1.0 1.5 0.8 ..

Indonesia 0.9 3.4 -1.7 5.6 3.0 -3.5 10.6 -0.6 -4.8 0.9 -2.3 1.9 1.4

Thaila nd 0.6 8.6 7.3 8.2 5.3 -33.1 -28.9 45.0 17.1 -4.1 10.0 -0.1 -0.4

Ma laysia 0.5 5.8 5.0 1.2 0.9 -25.5 -14.0 5.6 10.5 -0.8 -0.4 5.4 -4.4

Europe and Central Asia 3.2 5.1 7.8 7.2 1.2 -29.0 -16.2 4.8 14.4 -0.5 1.0 1.3 1.6

Russian Federa tion 1.0 5.5 6.5 6.3 2.3 -29.1 -22.3 -5.0 17.9 -1.9 3.7 -4.0 6.0

Turkey 0.5 3.7 7.9 6.9 -0.9 -34.8 -23.3 20.9 16.3 2.9 -6.4 14.1 -7.1

Poland 0.6 6.3 12.3 9.3 2.3 -18.7 -8.3 12.5 4.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 2.2

Czech Republic 0.2 4.8 8.2 10.4 -2.1 -34.9 -24.3 2.2 14.6 7.7 -2.2 1.0 ..

Latin America and Caribbea n 6.2 1.5 4.6 4.4 0.7 -20.2 -16.1 1.9 10.3 -0.2 1.0 0.8 0.9

Brazil 1.8 3.3 2.9 5.9 2.9 -36.0 -23.2 17.6 20.5 1.2 1.7 2.3 -0.2

Me xico 1.7 .. 5.7 2.4 -1.0 -12.7 -17.0 -3.0 7.2 -1.3 0.4 1.0 1.0

Argentina 0.8 2.7 8.6 7.3 0.7 -22.7 -11.5 17.6 6.8 1.1 -0.3 -0.9 2.7

Colombia 0.3 2.7 10.7 10.8 -3.1 -13.6 -4.0 -4.8 3.3 -3.5 3.2 -0.6 ..

Middle Ea st and North Africa 1.9 1.6 -0.6 -0.4 1.6 -2.4 -6.8 6.2 4.5 0.4 -0.2 0.4 ..

Saudi Arabia 1.2 1.0 -4.2 -4.7 6.2 -18.7 -30.7 1.8 5.5 -0.6 -0.8 0.9 ..

Iran 0.4 1.1 -2.7 -2.9 3.6 1.3 -9.9 7.0 -1.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 ..

Egypt 0.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria .. 3.9 0.9 1.1 -0.5 -1.9 -11.1 0.9 12.4 1.1 -0.3 -0.2 ..

South Asia 1.6 6.8 10.6 9.1 4.1 -3.7 1.9 15.5 20.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 2.1

India 1.3 6.7 10.6 9.8 4.4 -2.8 4.2 15.2 21.6 1.3 0.9 -0.9 2.2

Pakistan 0.2 6.7 10.6 5.5 -0.6 -7.7 -20.0 12.1 17.9 1.2 -4.0 9.1 ..

Bangla desh 0.1 .. 10.8 5.6 -28.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2 .. 4.1 6.3 3.6 -13.0 -16.5 -4.7 11.7 -0.1 0.9 0.7 ..

South Africa 0.4 2.5 4.7 4.6 0.9 -26.7 -22.4 -11.3 11.5 -2.6 3.2 0.4 0.7

Nige ria 0.3 .. 0.7 0.2 -24.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD 75.9 1.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China 16.6 3.5 5.1 5.4 1.8 -18.6 -11.9 5.9 11.7 -0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0

Developing oil exporters 2.9 0.8 3.7 3.7 1.0 -14.5 -11.9 -1.5 7.4 -0.6 0.7 -0.2 2.0

Dev. non-oil exporters 19.9 -213.7 11.7 13.0 8.3 -14.0 3.3 23.1 15.9 0.8 1.4 1.3 ..

Asian high tech exporters .. . . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; perc ent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in pe rce nt change over previous month a/)

aIn general, se ries refer to industrial production exc luding construction (e .g. ma nufac turing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not ava ilable the

closest proxy is use d, often manufa cturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.

January 28, 2010



1995 1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep Oct Nov Dec

Real GDP a

High-income c ountries 78.6 2.3 2.6 0.3 .. -8.8 0.5 2.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial c ountries 75.4 2.3 2.5 0.3 .. -7.9 0.0 2.0 .. .. .. .. ..

United Sta te s 11.0 2.6 2.1 0.4 .. -6.4 -0.7 2.2 .. .. .. .. ..

Japan 20.6 1.3 2.3 -1.2 .. -11.9 2.7 1.3 .. .. .. .. ..

Euro Are a 27.2 2.0 2.7 0.5 .. -9.3 -0.5 1.7 .. .. .. .. ..

United Kindgom 6.5 2.6 2.6 0.5 .. -9.7 -2.7 -0.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Other high income 3.2 4.3 6.1 1.8 .. -30.4 17.2 24.5 .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China ) 0.7 .. 6.4 2.4 .. -38.1 7.4 34.0 .. .. .. .. ..

Singapore 0.4 5.6 7.8 1.2 .. -12.2 21.7 14.2 .. .. .. .. ..

Ta iwan (China) 1.4 3.8 6.0 0.7 .. -39.6 29.2 32.7 .. .. .. .. ..

Real merchandise impor ts b

High-income c ountries 100.0 .. 10.4 2.2 .. -36.4 1.4 38.9 -84.7 8.9 -0.3 -21.2 ..

Industrial c ountries 88.3 .. 10.4 1.8 .. -35.5 -1.1 40.1 -85.5 9.2 -0.2 -23.8 ..

United Sta te s 23.8 8.2 1.1 -3.7 .. -43.4 -16.7 22.4 -79.8 9.1 -4.6 2.1 ..

Japan 6.7 5.2 -0.1 13.4 .. -52.9 -8.2 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Euro Are a 37.1 .. 13.9 6.7 .. -30.8 0.6 47.2 -90.1 9.9 1.3 -43.1 ..

United Kindgom 6.7 6.3 10.5 -9.7 .. -47.4 8.2 22.1 -98.6 7.6 -0.8 .. ..

Other high income 11.7 5.5 17.0 3.1 .. -34.3 13.9 46.0 -74.9 6.8 -0.5 -3.2 ..

Hong Kong (China ) 4.1 6.6 10.2 2.9 .. -43.6 32.2 16.8 -74.6 6.6 1.6 0.1 ..

Singapore 2.3 5.2 6.3 9.7 .. -34.7 -5.3 23.1 7.4 6.3 -4.9 1.3 ..

Ta iwan (China) 2.2 6.2 -1.1 0.0 .. -57.4 72.4 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Import Prices c

High-income c ountries 100.0 .. 4.0 10.4 0.0 -19.6 -5.1 2.4 12.2 0.6 1.4 2.0 ..

Industrial c ountries 88.3 .. 3.8 10.3 0.0 -19.1 -5.5 1.5 13.7 0.4 1.4 3.0 ..

United Sta te s 23.8 -0.1 4.2 11.4 0.0 -20.1 -1.9 6.5 30.8 1.7 2.6 2.7 2.1

Japan 6.7 -1.4 7.5 8.7 0.0 -40.9 -9.3 -6.2 24.0 0.3 0.6 5.0 2.5

Euro Are a 37.1 .. 5.3 8.2 0.0 -19.3 -3.2 1.0 16.0 1.0 0.9 5.6 ..

United Kindgom 6.7 -1.1 1.1 13.2 0.0 4.2 -6.4 1.2 3.4 1.2 2.2 -0.8 -6.7

Other high income 11.7 -1.0 0.9 12.5 0.0 -20.0 -16.9 -2.1 -1.0 .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China ) 4.1 -1.2 -0.4 3.0 0.0 -4.7 -2.1 1.8 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.1

Singapore 2.3 -0.3 3.5 10.6 0.0 -22.1 7.7 4.0 -54.7 -9.7 -6.0 -11.3 -0.2

Ta iwan (China) 2.2 -1.6 9.0 8.8 0.0 -8.3 -9.1 11.1 22.3 0.5 2.3 2.0 1.5

Real effective exchange rates d

Euro Are a 33.5 1.3 4.1 4.2 -5.0 -6.5 -8.5 -5.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 -3.9 -1.6

United Sta te s 14.4 -1.1 -4.6 -3.7 10.8 19.6 18.7 11.7 -4.5 -1.4 -2.0 0.2 1.8

Japan 7.4 -1.2 -6.6 9.8 13.7 24.5 16.3 18.3 -1.4 2.7 -0.3 1.2 1.8

United Kindgom 5.4 -2.4 2.1 -12.0 -8.2 -17.1 -9.9 -6.1 1.4 -2.4 -1.6 3.7 -0.6

Canada 3.5 -0.6 0.8 -8.3 -7.6 -20.5 -12.8 -5.1 11.7 0.2 2.8 0.7 1.7

Hong Kong (China ) 3.5 -2.7 -4.7 -5.5 6.7 7.3 9.8 8.6 1.6 -0.9 1.3 0.6 1.7

Korea, Rep. 2.5 -1.7 -2.0 -15.9 -13.3 -27.1 -16.7 -14.5 11.1 1.0 2.2 0.9 -1.5

Singapore 2.3 1.3 6.9 4.6 -9.2 -3.9 -9.5 -12.2 -10.8 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 -3.3

Ta iwan (China) 2.1 -2.3 -1.3 -4.2 -9.3 -10.6 -11.9 -10.1 -4.1 -0.3 -0.8 0.4 -4.4

Switzerland 1.7 0.0 -4.9 2.2 9.1 7.7 8.9 11.5 8.5 1.3 1.7 2.1 1.5

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicate d; perc ent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates e xcept monthly figures, which

are m/m change)

a/ Re al GDP aggrega te d using 1995 weights.

b/ On a customs or BoP basis, as available. Weights are 1995 merchandise import: aggregate calculated as sum of components.

c/ Aggregate prices are implicit prices of aggrega te US dollar value divided by aggregate constant 1995 dollar volume.

d/ JP Morgan Tra de Weighted Indice s (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in question.

January 28, 2010


Weights Average 2009 2009 2009 2009 Latest

1995 1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec 20-Jan

Polic y Rates

United States .. 3.44 5.02 1.93 0.16 0.19 0.18 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12

Japa n .. 0.33 0.70 0.70 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30

Euro Area .. .. 3.84 3.89 1.28 1.99 1.13 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

United Kindgom .. 4.80 5.51 4.67 0.65 1.09 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Ten year bond

United States .. 4.70 4.63 3.66 2.67 2.67 3.25 3.51 3.42 3.34 3.43 3.48 3.48

Japa n .. 1.49 1.67 1.49 1.34 1.28 1.43 1.34 1.31 1.31 1.37 1.24 1.24

Euro Area .. .. 4.20 4.00 3.25 3.12 3.35 3.33 3.22 3.24 3.26 3.16 3.16

United Kindgom .. 4.77 5.01 4.52 3.65 3.48 3.56 3.79 3.77 3.64 3.80 3.87 3.87

Spreads (Basis points)b,c

Developing countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China .. 82 71 166 126 184 134 111 76 84 85 61 47

Indonesia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Thailand .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Malaysia .. 129 87 201 230 352 243 166 160 165 166 149 141

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russia n Federation .. 262 121 328 443 694 453 378 245 258 249 229 198

Turkey .. 404 214 383 367 537 380 306 244 261 247 225 206

Poland .. 99 61 159 222 311 250 185 142 136 156 134 138

Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean .. 522 187 400 463 662 493 385 314 321 323 300 278

Brazil .. 551 180 301 306 431 324 254 216 226 219 202 196

Mexico .. 206 126 254 302 436 312 246 212 223 211 202 190

Argentina .. 2920 320 858 1198 1696 1458 922 716 707 725 718 691

Colombia .. 370 161 305 329 489 346 270 213 218 214 208 199

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 96 277 286 433 317 208 184 154 197 201 170

Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt .. .. 86 262 134 251 133 97 57 48 92 31 27

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Pakistan .. .. 283 1040 1186 1943 1340 841 620 603 598 659 687

Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Afric a .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa .. 172 100 329 301 461 333 223 187 178 206 176 167

Nigeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Gross inflows e

Developing countries .. .. 149 211 348 48 62 99 139 54 40 45 ..

East Asia and Pacific .. .. 41 49 95 15 19 22 38 9 14 15 ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 35 64 71 6 16 21 28 10 10 8 ..

Latin America and Carribean .. .. 45 65 130 21 16 37 57 30 11 16 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 15 11 4 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 ..

South Asia .. .. 3 7 31 3 7 11 10 4 3 3 ..

Sub-Saharan Afric a .. .. 10 16 17 1 4 7 3 0 2 1 ..

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures, except the last month, which are the values reported on the mentioned date. Quarterly and

Annual figure s are simple averages of the monthly figures.

b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.

c/Aggregates as define d by JP Morgan.

d/Ea st Asia a nd Pacific including South Asian c ountries.

e/In billions of US dollars.

January 28, 2010


Weightsb Average 2009 2009 2009

1990 1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec

Ener gy 100.00 .. 244.8 342.0 214.3 166.3 204.5 230.3 256.0 249.9 261.5 256.5

Coal, Austra lia 4.70 15.8 250.4 484.2 273.3 274.0 253.3 271.7 294.4 270.7 300.2 312.4

Crude oil, average 84.60 22.2 251.9 343.6 218.8 156.3 209.7 241.6 267.5 262.4 274.7 265.3

Natural gas , Europe 10.80 18.7 221.7 347.5 225.7 309.5 212.1 179.0 202.3 197.0 202.4 207.6

Non-energy 100.00 .. 224.7 272.0 213.1 189.9 207.8 219.8 235.1 228.3 235.3 241.7

Agriculture 64.80 .. 180.3 229.5 197.7 181.9 197.1 199.5 212.4 206.6 213.2 217.3

Beve rages 8.40 .. 169.9 210.0 219.9 197.9 207.3 226.4 248.0 246.0 245.4 252.6

Cocoa 3.10 4.4 215.5 284.5 319.0 286.4 284.7 327.2 377.5 371.0 373.7 388.0

Coffee , arabica 3.00 0.3 141.9 160.5 165.2 147.9 166.8 168.1 178.0 177.5 174.8 181.6

Coffee , robusta 0.80 2.4 209.1 254.2 180.1 192.6 181.0 175.3 171.3 177.5 167.8 168.7

Food 40.00 .. 184.7 247.4 205.0 190.4 209.8 206.4 213.5 207.8 215.3 217.4

Fats and oils 16.30 .. 209.0 277.3 216.2 191.4 227.9 220.9 224.5 217.0 225.6 231.0

Pa lm oil 4.90 3.5 251.5 305.7 220.1 186.1 239.5 218.7 235.9 219.2 233.7 255.0

Soybean meal 4.30 9.6 163.0 224.4 215.5 192.7 224.0 227.7 217.7 218.1 223.1 212.0

Soybeans 4.00 8.0 181.3 246.8 206.3 186.0 217.5 214.3 207.4 201.6 207.7 212.9

Grains 11.20 .. 189.0 281.7 214.9 221.3 225.3 202.3 210.8 201.0 214.3 217.0

Maize 4.60 8.1 184.9 252.0 186.9 188.5 198.8 170.9 189.6 189.0 193.9 185.9

Rice, Thailand, 5% 3.40 7.9 161.3 321.2 274.2 289.7 272.9 266.3 267.9 243.6 268.2 292.0

Wheat, US, HRW 2.80 10.0 223.7 285.8 196.4 203.0 219.6 183.0 180.0 174.3 185.0 180.8

Other food 12.40 .. 149.0 177.1 181.5 161.3 172.1 191.2 201.4 201.8 202.7 199.8

Bananas, U S 1.90 5.6 159.4 199.1 199.8 210.2 202.4 194.9 191.6 190.9 196.6 187.2

Sugar, world 3.90 0.6 123.2 156.5 221.4 160.0 188.0 260.6 277.0 276.8 272.2 281.8

Raw materials 16.50 .. 174.9 195.7 168.7 153.1 161.1 168.9 191.7 183.7 191.8 199.4

Cotton ("A" Index) 1.90 0.9 107.1 120.9 106.2 92.8 101.7 109.0 121.3 113.1 121.1 129.9

Rubber, Singapore 3.70 13.6 339.2 387.6 287.9 218.9 249.4 298.8 384.5 352.6 381.0 419.9

Sawnwood, Ma laysia 6.70 6.3 135.6 149.5 135.5 136.8 139.5 129.7 135.8 135.4 138.1 133.8

Fertilizers 3.60 .. 240.1 566.7 293.0 376.6 300.6 252.1 242.8 242.7 242.2 243.5

Triple superphospha te 0.70 17.7 246.2 638.6 186.9 233.6 179.8 163.1 171.1 179.0 165.9 168.5

Metals and minerals 31.60 .. 314.0 325.7 235.6 185.0 219.0 257.6 280.8 271.2 279.8 291.4

Aluminum 8.40 6.6 170.3 166.1 107.5 87.8 95.9 117.0 129.3 121.3 125.8 140.7

Copper 12.10 15.4 392.5 383.6 284.0 189.1 257.1 323.1 366.6 346.7 368.1 385.0

Gold .. 11.5 249.7 312.4 348.7 325.6 330.3 344.1 394.8 373.8 403.9 406.7

Nickel 2.50 16.4 431.0 244.4 169.7 121.2 149.6 204.9 202.9 214.5 196.7 197.6

Memo:

Crude Oil (US$) .. 22.2 71.1 97.0 61.8 44.1 59.2 68.2 75.5 74.1 77.6 74.9

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices a re computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income

economies, rebased to 1990.

b/ Energy and gold prices a re not included in the index.

January 28, 2010



2000 1999-08 2006 2007 2008 Q4 Q 1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct Nov

Export valuesDeveloping countries 100.0 11.1 23.0 19.7 20.8 -56.2 -54.9 9.3 32.9 -0.5 7.7 3.3 1.8

East Asia and Pacific 36.3 18.5 23.4 22.0 16.7 -41.1 -49.1 2.9 28.3 -0.9 7.7 4.4 -0.5

China 16.7 22.8 27.1 26.3 17.4 -33.8 -53.8 2.6 25.6 -2.1 8.8 3.1 0.0

Indonesia 4.2 .. 17.7 13.2 20.2 -56.0 -51.1 37.0 43.8 8.9 -1.2 20.9 -6.3

Thaila nd 4.6 12.6 16.9 18.6 15.8 -55.9 -19.2 -10.1 41.8 0.4 9.3 1.3 -1.3

Europe and Central Asia 20.7 18.9 23.0 22.0 29.3 -70.0 -61.4 9.9 51.9 -0.2 10.8 3.4 2.2

Russian Federa tion 7.1 20.3 24.9 16.4 33.9 -71.2 -77.5 31.8 53.6 2.6 8.8 3.7 8.3

Turkey 1.8 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Poland 2.1 19.7 24.2 26.4 21.9 -69.9 -35.7 19.4 .. -2.3 .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbea n 24.0 8.3 19.7 13.2 11.8 -55.1 -46.6 16.0 7.5 -0.9 7.8 0.4 7.9

Brazil 3.7 14.5 16.1 16.9 22.7 -45.5 -62.8 46.2 -22.0 -2.0 3.8 0.6 3.8

Me xico 11.2 9.5 16.8 8.7 7.4 -56.4 -44.5 -1.8 24.7 0.6 9.9 -0.2 11.1

Argentina 1.8 10.2 15.4 20.1 25.8 -72.9 -30.1 42.2 -33.0 -13.0 10.5 -1.7 12.9

Middle Ea st and North Africa 8.3 21.8 31.4 16.2 37.1 -71.1 -74.4 15.3 45.4 1.9 4.2 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 5.2 21.7 26.7 6.5 43.5 -66.8 -83.7 12.6 71.2 -5.9 21.5 .. ..

I ran 1.9 .. 37.3 17.9 30.3 -72.9 -82.0 27.3 95.7 -10.5 1.8 .. ..

Egypt 0.3 23.3 31.5 18.5 56.5 -71.4 -7.0 41.5 36.0 23.6 -1.2 .. ..

South Asia 4.3 15.8 19.1 18.4 24.2 -59.0 -46.8 14.3 58.1 2.8 2.2 2.9 3.4

India 2.8 18.4 21.4 21.9 26.3 -63.4 -47.0 20.1 64.4 3.5 1.0 2.6 4.3

Pakistan 0.6 9.1 5.0 2.6 16.0 -24.5 -40.8 2.5 .. 0.5 .. .. ..

Bangla desh 0.4 11.6 23.9 8.3 23.2 -49.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 16.8 24.2 20.1 27.9 -69.3 -70.0 32.5 60.5 -1.7 6.2 .. ..

South Africa 2.0 11.8 11.8 21.2 15.2 -68.6 -45.8 4.5 .. -6.4 .. .. ..

Nige ria 1.4 21.0 32.5 15.6 29.7 -70.1 -88.7 150.9 37.7 -0.9 8.1 .. ..

Export prices b, c

Developing countries 100.0 .. 9.0 5.6 17.9 -19.3 -37.1 -14.3 -5.7 1.7 0.6 0.8 -1.9

East Asia and Pacific 36.3 .. 3.6 5.7 9.8 -6.5 -26.1 -4.5 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 -1.3

China 16.7 0.0 2.0 5.6 8.2 -2.3 -23.8 -2.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.9

Indonesia 4.2 .. 14.4 8.0 20.8 -41.4 -41.6 -21.4 3.7 3.2 1.0 4.7 -3.4

Thaila nd 4.6 5.7 5.3 5.7 10.4 -17.5 -5.7 2.5 13.9 2.0 1.1 1.4 1.5

Europe and Central Asia 20.7 .. 11.9 5.5 27.1 -20.5 -47.9 -30.2 -17.5 2.3 0.9 0.5 -3.2

Russian Federa tion 7.1 .. 21.0 3.9 43.4 -13.3 -55.2 -55.5 -35.9 2.8 0.8 2.9 -8.5

Turkey 1.8 3.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Poland 2.1 -0.9 2.6 5.6 11.1 -7.5 -25.9 -7.7 -0.7 0.5 0.3 0.8 -4.6

Latin America and Caribbea n 24.0 1.0 11.9 7.1 18.2 -26.9 -36.5 -11.0 -0.3 2.3 1.3 1.8 -2.4

Brazil 3.7 5.4 6.6 7.5 23.2 -24.5 -35.5 -5.1 1.2 2.9 -0.2 2.8 -9.8

Me xico 11.2 5.8 6.8 4.6 16.2 3.7 -36.1 -22.9 -12.9 0.8 0.3 0.0 -1.0

Argentina 1.8 5.3 11.9 17.9 32.1 -51.4 -35.2 -8.8 -14.9 3.8 -1.2 4.2 -3.8

Middle Ea st and North Africa 8.3 .. 30.1 3.5 45.8 -22.7 -62.3 -53.5 -41.1 8.3 -1.6 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 5.2 23.8 22.7 5.8 54.0 -55.2 -92.7 -7.7 110.0 15.8 -3.2 14.9 -26.3

Iran 1.9 .. 31.3 1.3 53.6 5.1 -60.4 -69.1 -54.1 3.1 1.2 1.0 -1.5

Egypt 0.3 .. 12.8 4.2 32.6 -12.6 -46.5 -42.8 -23.9 2.3 1.0 2.2 -8.1

South Asia 4.3 2.4 5.1 5.8 17.8 -7.0 -29.6 -19.2 4.3 -0.4 0.4 0.3 -3.1

India 2.8 4.3 5.7 5.9 18.4 -5.5 -35.9 -12.8 -3.2 0.7 0.4 0.8 -5.4

Pakistan 0.6 0.5 3.8 4.1 30.6 2.0 5.7 -62.7 58.1 1.9 1.5 -0.1 0.9

Bangla desh 0.4 -6.7 1.7 5.4 6.4 1.6 -22.7 0.7 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. 20.3 5.0 29.8 -33.7 -47.2 -24.6 -21.5 3.7 1.2 .. ..

South Africa 2.0 6.9 7.5 8.4 7.6 -52.9 -3.1 35.8 32.9 0.8 3.2 -18.6 -12.7

Nige ria 1.4 .. 33.1 1.1 55.5 6.9 -61.2 -70.8 -56.4 3.0 1.3 1.2 -0.5

Table A.5 Developing countries' merchandise export growth

January 28, 2010




Import values

Developing countries 100.0 15.8 19.4 21.9 25.3 -53.3 -57.7 17.4 36.9 -2.2 8.4 0.8 4.4

East Asia and Pacific 35.2 18.7 16.9 18.8 21.1 -52.5 -55.4 63.1 44.2 -4.1 10.5 1.9 2.7

China 19.3 23.2 20.1 20.7 18.7 -52.6 -51.6 85.0 38.4 -4.9 10.9 1.7 2.3

Indonesia 2.1 16.8 6.0 21.9 73.0 -51.3 -72.4 21.7 79.5 8.5 -4.2 11.9 -0.4

Thaila nd 4.2 15.5 9.0 8.6 27.8 -51.4 -71.8 12.0 73.2 -6.0 20.7 -2.8 5.3

Europe and Central Asia 24.1 17.2 25.6 30.3 26.3 -63.6 -64.7 -7.5 40.8 1.3 11.9 0.5 ..

Russian Federa tion 3.9 17.5 30.4 36.4 32.0 -55.5 -74.1 -9.2 18.6 -0.9 12.5 2.4 4.8

Turkey 3.2 16.0 19.4 21.9 19.2 -75.0 -50.7 1.7 47.0 3.8 1.1 5.6 -0.4

Poland 3.6 16.1 25.4 30.3 26.3 -65.2 -58.2 -1.2 .. 3.0 .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbea n 22.9 10.1 19.6 19.0 22.1 -44.6 -58.0 -15.1 24.0 -5.1 9.8 -5.0 8.6

Brazil 3.2 11.6 23.9 31.9 43.5 -45.0 -67.8 -16.1 31.0 -5.9 18.6 -2.0 6.0

Me xico 11.6 9.4 15.5 10.1 9.8 -50.9 -55.7 -10.5 36.9 -3.2 9.6 -5.7 11.8

Argentina 0.6 6.2 18.9 30.6 28.8 -53.1 -72.3 5.3 17.1 -3.4 10.0 -1.6 6.6

Middle Ea st and North Africa 6.9 14.7 9.7 23.0 44.7 -33.7 -40.7 14.0 10.8 -4.0 1.0 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.0 14.4 19.7 29.2 24.9 -36.5 -54.3 24.4 45.6 -12.1 6.9 .. ..

I ran 1.4 17.1 4.5 10.9 55.1 -8.8 -69.4 42.7 44.5 0.6 3.6 .. ..

Egypt 0.8 11.7 3.9 31.6 77.8 -32.9 -38.2 -31.7 59.7 0.5 -8.1 .. ..

South Asia 5.5 19.0 20.5 21.4 38.3 -61.7 -67.3 13.6 56.0 5.9 -2.5 6.6 7.4

India 3.7 21.3 21.7 24.7 41.9 -65.0 -72.6 17.6 68.0 8.2 -4.4 7.7 8.5

Pakistan 0.7 16.5 17.2 9.5 25.5 -46.9 -47.7 65.8 .. -3.9 .. .. ..

Bangla desh 0.5 12.3 15.5 15.4 28.9 -37.9 0.5 -38.9 29.9 2.3 -2.5 .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 14.9 23.1 21.7 23.8 -45.2 -46.7 -7.3 .. 0.3 .. .. ..

South Africa 1.9 13.2 23.2 18.0 11.5 -69.8 -43.0 -35.5 .. 4.0 .. .. ..

Nige ria 0.5 21.8 19.2 33.5 37.4 -31.9 -54.1 20.2 38.5 -2.4 10.6 .. ..

Import prices b,c

Developing countries 100.0 .. 6.4 5.1 15.1 -10.2 -28.5 -14.4 -5.6 0.9 -0.1 0.6 -1.2

East Asia and Pacific 35.2 .. 5.7 4.7 16.4 -2.7 -34.9 -17.5 -8.7 1.0 0.2 0.6 -2.2

China 19.3 .. 6.1 5.6 17.1 -5.8 -36.5 -16.8 -8.0 1.2 0.1 1.0 -5.1

Indonesia 2.1 .. 11.8 4.7 28.0 -3.8 -44.4 -36.8 -24.2 1.3 0.0 1.2 -6.3

Thaila nd 4.2 3.9 0.2 -4.0 8.7 -14.8 2.7 -2.1 -1.6 0.6 0.2 0.4 1.3

Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. 6.7 4.0 7.8 -15.5 -19.9 -0.5 1.1 0.2 -0.7 1.1 ..

Russian Federa tion 3.9 1.7 3.1 4.6 10.4 -7.6 -24.5 -4.2 2.9 1.0 0.5 0.7 -3.6

Turkey 3.2 5.2 9.8 11.0 -1.0 -53.3 -22.7 32.1 27.3 0.5 -1.5 1.3 -1.4

Poland 3.6 -0.2 6.9 -1.8 -0.5 29.6 22.5 6.2 -10.6 -1.5 -5.3 -17.5 3.1

Latin America and Caribbea n 22.9 4.1 5.0 6.3 14.2 -17.4 -21.2 -13.8 -1.3 0.2 1.4 -0.2 0.7

Brazil 3.2 5.6 6.9 8.2 22.0 -23.5 -21.8 -22.8 2.9 0.4 1.7 1.3 0.3

Me xico 11.6 3.3 4.6 5.4 8.4 -14.1 -7.9 -5.8 -0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7

Argentina 0.6 1.8 2.4 6.5 11.0 -23.9 -22.6 -15.9 -2.3 -0.6 0.9 0.2 -1.3

Middle Ea st and North Africa 6.9 .. 6.3 6.5 18.7 -18.9 -23.9 -18.0 -5.6 1.8 -0.9 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.0 .. 2.3 5.5 11.7 -5.9 -23.8 -6.6 1.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 -5.8

Iran 1.4 .. 4.7 5.9 20.2 -10.5 -32.7 -21.9 -8.1 0.5 0.1 0.9 -12.1

Egypt 0.8 .. 6.2 7.8 17.7 -23.6 -31.7 -6.9 -6.3 1.3 -0.5 2.2 -5.3

South Asia 5.5 2.3 14.8 6.8 29.7 -13.3 -43.1 -32.7 -14.0 2.2 0.4 1.2 -1.2

India 3.7 3.3 16.6 5.5 30.1 -9.3 -42.1 -37.7 -19.7 1.7 1.3 1.2 -1.2

Pakistan 0.7 9.6 11.4 11.3 48.3 -14.5 -45.3 -40.8 6.9 0.8 1.3 -3.6 -2.2

Bangla desh 0.5 -6.2 5.1 6.5 17.4 -14.5 -28.9 -9.2 -4.2 0.9 -0.2 1.1 -4.4

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. 6.4 5.1 16.7 -3.8 -33.0 -16.2 -5.5 0.6 .. .. ..

South Africa 1.9 5.8 5.5 5.5 13.3 -3.3 -30.2 -12.0 -3.3 0.7 0.4 0.5 -1.3

Nige ria 0.5 .. 5.5 4.9 16.0 -5.2 -30.8 -13.1 -5.8 0.5 -0.2 0.6 -5.3

Table A.6 Developing countries' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicate d; perc ent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates e xcept monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.) , customs basis.

/b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.

/c In many cases countries a re very la te in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely f igures individual trade prices were updated using the

media n (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) c ountries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight re ported.

January 28, 2010


US$ bn. % GDP 2008 2009 2009 2009

2008 2008 2006 2007 2008 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q 3 Aug Sep Oct Nov

World -168.7 -0.3 181.4 54.7 -116.6 -34.9 -13.4 133.0 61.3 47.0 2.2 140.9 -36.8

High-income c ountries a -418.9 -1.0 -95.4 -210.3 -271.1 -102.5 -121.3 84.0 35.9 -6.1 -30.3 9.0 -70.1

Industrial c ountries -499.8 -1.2 -299.5 -391.0 -531.0 -272.0 -197.4 -15.8 -63.7 -102.4 -144.1 -120.9 -156.3

United Sta te s -706.1 -5.0 -891.0 -870.8 -881.5 -733.8 -547.0 -500.7 -542.9 -522.9 -589.6 -541.3 -577.0

Japan 183.2 3.7 640.8 707.9 775.8 682.0 491.0 530.4 .. 573.8 .. .. ..

Euro Are a -19.6 -0.2 -217.1 -342.4 -583.0 -362.5 -286.8 -225.1 -315.0 -332.7 -382.0 -411.7 -295.8

United Kindgom -73.6 -2.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Other high income 80.9 4.2 237.8 256.4 283.2 259.5 269.1 316.9 327.5 311.3 342.4 331.9 299.4

Hong Kong (China ) 30.5 12.8 -18.3 -23.3 -26.1 -21.2 -19.1 -18.2 -38.0 -35.7 -42.1 -41.0 -37.8

Singapore 26.9 13.9 32.9 36.2 18.6 11.9 15.3 25.3 .. 26.7 .. .. ..

Ta iwan (China) 24.9 6.0 20.3 26.6 15.6 16.0 36.9 30.1 .. 28.2 .. .. ..

Developing countries 293.5 1.8 276.8 265.0 154.5 67.6 107.9 48.9 25.4 53.1 32.5 131.9 33.4

East Asia and Pacific 469.7 9.6 240.4 333.2 325.9 401.3 380.7 231.8 202.6 225.5 203.0 251.9 197.6

China 426.1 11.5 173.2 262.6 295.7 375.4 300.1 171.6 156.9 167.5 160.8 181.3 155.8

Indonesia 0.6 0.1 39.7 39.6 8.2 3.4 15.5 19.4 15.8 15.4 18.3 31.1 22.6

Thaila nd -0.1 0.0 0.9 14.0 -0.6 -7.4 28.0 20.8 16.0 22.9 10.8 17.1 7.3

Ma laysia 38.9 19.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. -0.4 -53.8 -45.0 -68.5 -38.7 -10.2 2.7 1.6 -5.5 17.1 ..

Russian Federa tion 102.4 6.0 140.6 131.1 179.8 116.0 73.5 96.3 119.8 121.5 125.5 132.6 150.9

Turkey -41.3 -5.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Poland -29.0 -5.6 -16.2 -25.5 -38.4 -34.6 -15.6 -9.7 .. -16.3 .. .. ..

Czech Republic -6.6 -3.0 1.8 4.4 4.1 -0.6 3.0 8.4 11.0 10.7 10.4 12.6 9.0

Latin America and Caribbea n -21.6 -0.5 27.6 -2.5 -74.1 -105.7 -51.6 -4.9 -27.2 -13.8 -26.9 8.2 4.9

Brazil -28.2 -1.7 46.3 40.4 24.6 21.5 21.3 40.8 23.1 29.9 13.9 17.5 15.2

Me xico -15.8 -1.6 -5.9 -10.0 -17.6 -25.8 -9.3 -4.1 -9.8 -6.8 -7.0 6.7 5.7

Argentina 7.6 2.6 12.3 11.2 12.7 8.8 17.5 22.0 14.9 12.4 13.9 13.5 17.8

Colombia -6.7 -3.0 -1.7 -2.9 -2.1 -6.1 -0.7 -0.1 -0.6 2.2 1.9 2.5 ..

Middle Ea st and North Africa .. .. 62.5 60.8 67.2 -4.1 -53.5 -54.6 -40.1 -37.1 -29.8 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 132.9 27.3 125.8 117.9 186.1 137.2 66.6 66.2 80.1 71.2 100.9 .. ..

I ran 0.0 0.0 40.0 50.0 53.9 30.0 12.9 12.1 19.3 16.4 15.5 .. ..

Egypt -1.3 -0.8 -6.9 -10.8 -22.7 -30.1 -24.7 -18.8 -22.1 -21.8 -18.3 .. ..

Algeria 0.0 0.0 33.1 31.9 39.8 25.5 4.7 0.5 6.8 7.9 13.6 .. ..

South Asia .. -74.2 -94.7 -157.2 -143.6 -89.1 -91.7 -101.8 -109.7 -97.8 -111.6 -128.2

India .. .. -52.7 -69.0 -120.9 -114.5 -62.4 -64.3 -74.0 -82.5 -70.1 -83.8 -98.0

Pakistan -15.7 -9.8 -13.0 -15.4 -21.0 -15.1 -12.3 -16.1 .. -13.5 .. .. ..

Bangla desh .. .. -2.9 -4.2 -6.1 -6.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. .. -3.4 -3.6 -5.8 -4.9 -2.8 -2.0 .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa -29.9 -3.0 20.9 22.1 37.8 -11.7 -40.0 -21.4 .. -13.5 .. .. ..

South Africa -21.0 -7.5 -9.9 -9.8 -8.3 -6.6 -6.4 0.8 .. -1.8 .. .. ..

Nige ria 20.3 9.3 28.4 27.6 32.8 13.4 -5.3 2.6 2.8 3.3 2.4 .. ..

Memo:

OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China .. .. 103.6 2.4 -141.2 -307.8 -192.2 -122.7 -131.5 -114.4 -128.4 -49.4 ..

Developing oil exporters 191.2 .. 306.2 275.4 313.7 110.9 68.4 108.4 133.3 142.2 147.9 214.4 ..

Developing non-oil e xporters .. .. -29.4 -10.4 -159.2 -43.3 39.5 -59.5 -107.9 -89.1 -115.4 -82.5 -168.6

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rate s)

a/ Seasonally adjusted

CAB

January 28, 2010


WeightsAverage

Levelb2009 2009 2009 2009 Latest

1995 2000-09 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oc t Nov Dec 19-Ja n

World 100.0 94.0 5.8 3.5 -6.0 -13.8 -12.4 -6.0 8.2 1.6 0.7 -1.4 -0.5

High-income c ountries 78.3 .. 6.1 3.9 -4.9 -13.2 -11.8 -4.3 10.1 1.5 0.7 -1.6 -0.4

Industrial c ountries 70.6 .. 7.0 4.1 -5.2 -14.4 -12.8 -4.5 11.5 1.7 0.9 -1.9 -0.5

United Sta te s (SDR/USD) 15.7 0.7 4.0 3.2 -2.4 -6.5 -6.6 -1.7 5.6 0.8 0.6 -1.2 -0.7

Japan 7.4 112.0 -1.2 13.9 10.4 12.3 7.4 15.0 7.0 1.2 1.3 -1.0 -2.0

Euro Are a 29.5 .. 9.1 6.9 -5.0 -13.1 -12.9 -4.7 12.2 1.8 0.6 -2.3 -1.0

United Kindgom 5.6 0.6 8.7 -8.1 -15.3 -27.7 -21.5 -14.0 4.3 -0.8 2.5 -2.3 -0.4

Other high income 7.7 101.4 0.4 2.6 -2.2 -3.3 -4.0 -2.2 0.7 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.5

Hong Kong (China ) 3.7 7.8 -0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Singapore 2.3 1.6 5.4 6.5 -2.7 -6.8 -7.2 -2.9 6.7 1.8 0.6 -0.6 0.2

Ta iwan (China) 2.1 33.0 -0.9 4.1 -4.6 -7.2 -8.1 -4.9 2.1 0.8 0.0 0.2 1.4

Developing countries 21.7 115.5 4.8 2.3 -9.3 -15.4 -14.0 -10.6 2.8 1.7 0.5 -0.5 -0.7

East Asia and Pacific 7.5 100.4 5.6 4.0 -2.8 -7.0 -5.7 -3.2 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.8

China 2.7 7.9 4.8 9.5 1.7 4.8 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Indonesia 1.1 9360.6 0.2 -5.8 -6.7 -20.5 -11.8 -7.5 16.9 3.9 0.3 0.0 2.3

Thaila nd 1.3 38.9 9.7 3.6 -2.9 -8.3 -7.0 -0.3 4.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.5

Ma laysia 1.4 3.7 6.7 3.0 -5.4 -11.0 -9.5 -5.1 4.8 2.6 0.4 -0.7 1.4

Europe and Central Asia 4.3 94.5 8.2 6.0 -18.5 -24.5 -24.8 -20.3 -3.4 2.4 1.1 -2.5 0.2

Russian Federa tion 1.5 28.6 6.3 2.9 -21.7 -28.6 -26.7 -22.5 -7.5 4.4 1.7 -3.7 1.0

Turkey .. 1.3 9.6 0.1 -16.1 -27.4 -19.6 -19.3 3.2 1.2 -1.4 -1.0 2.8

Poland 0.5 3.5 12.1 14.9 -22.8 -30.7 -33.3 -24.9 1.3 0.3 1.9 -1.9 0.7

Czech Republic 0.5 26.6 11.3 18.9 -10.5 -19.7 -18.9 -10.2 9.7 -0.4 0.9 -3.4 -1.3

Latin America and Caribbea n 5.5 142.6 3.1 1.2 -10.4 -18.2 -16.5 -13.4 6.0 1.7 0.7 0.3 -4.2

Brazil 1.1 2.3 11.7 6.2 -8.2 -24.9 -20.2 -10.6 30.9 4.7 0.6 -1.4 0.5

Me xico 1.7 10.8 -0.3 -1.8 -17.6 -24.8 -21.8 -22.3 -0.7 1.3 1.0 1.8 0.7

Argentina 0.4 2.7 -1.3 -1.5 -15.4 -11.1 -16.4 -20.6 -13.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2

Colombia 0.3 2329.3 13.6 5.6 -9.2 -22.2 -21.0 -5.7 16.8 3.6 -3.5 -2.2 2.0

Middle Ea st and North Africa 1.7 163.8 1.9 2.5 -4.7 -5.5 -7.2 -5.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.6 0.2

Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Iran 0.4 .. -1.2 -1.6 .. -5.6 -6.9 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.3 5.2 1.7 3.7 -2.1 -1.6 -4.3 -3.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 -0.5 0.7

Algeria 0.3 73.4 4.8 7.3 -11.0 -8.0 -12.8 -16.1 -7.1 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.7

South Asia 1.2 107.4 5.4 -5.6 -9.6 -18.0 -13.6 -8.7 1.7 2.2 0.2 -0.2 1.0

India 0.8 45.5 9.6 -5.0 -10.1 -20.0 -14.6 -9.5 4.5 3.5 0.3 -0.1 1.7

Pakistan 0.2 62.4 -0.8 -13.7 -13.8 -23.1 -17.9 -10.2 -4.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6

Bangla desh 0.1 62.3 0.1 0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1

Sri Lanka 0.1 99.8 -6.1 2.1 -5.8 -5.3 -7.4 -6.2 -4.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 117.9 0.3 -5.0 -9.9 -21.0 -14.8 -9.9 9.1 0.8 -0.2 0.1 0.5

South Africa 0.6 7.7 -3.9 -14.7 -2.5 -25.4 -8.2 -0.2 32.7 0.4 -0.3 0.3 1.6

Nige ria 0.3 124.9 2.3 6.1 -20.7 -19.7 -20.3 -22.9 -19.7 2.1 -0.6 0.9 -0.3

Memo:

OECD 73.7 .. 6.9 4.2 -5.9 -15.0 -13.4 -5.5 11.0 1.6 0.9 -1.8 -0.5

Developing excl. China 19.0 118.7 4.8 1.3 -10.8 -17.9 -16.0 -12.0 3.3 1.9 0.6 -0.6 -0.8

Developing oil exporters 2.8 171.6 0.7 -1.4 -7.6 -13.2 -10.2 -8.5 3.6 2.1 0.1 0.1 -9.1

Developing non-oil exporters 19.0 108.8 5.4 2.9 -9.5 -15.7 -14.5 -10.9 2.7 1.6 0.5 -0.6 0.5

Asian high tech exporte rs .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.8 Exchange Rates (USD/LCU)(annual percent change exc ept monthly data which is change over previous month a/)

a/ An increa se in the USD pe r LCU implies appreciation of the loc al currency. The aggregates c omputed by using tra de weights and rebase d to yea r 2000=100 (bilatera l tota l

trade i.e. imports plus exports in 1995 constant USD).

Aggregates are re ported whe n

January 28, 2010




World 2.7 4.8 4.0 4.8 8.8 8.3 5.5 3.1 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.6

High-income c ountries 1.2 3.3 2.5 2.4 4.3 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.0

Industrial c ountries 1.1 3.2 2.3 2.3 3.8 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.7

United Sta te s -1.9 3.8 3.2 2.8 3.9 1.6 0.0 -1.2 -1.6 -1.5 -1.2 -0.1 1.9

Japan -2.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 1.0 -0.1 -1.0 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5 -1.8

Euro Are a 0.2 3.3 2.2 2.1 3.3 2.3 1.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.5

United Kindgom 1.4 3.6 2.3 2.3 3.6 3.9 3.0 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.6 2.0

Other high income .. 6.1 2.5 2.3 4.4 3.6 2.4 1.5 .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China ) 0.0 4.3 2.0 2.0 4.3 2.3 1.7 -0.1 -0.8 -1.5 0.5 2.3 0.6

Singapore -2.2 6.5 1.0 2.1 6.5 5.4 2.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.1

Ta iwan (China) -3.3 3.5 0.6 1.8 3.6 1.8 0.0 -0.8 -1.3 -0.8 -0.8 -1.9 -1.7

Developing countries 8.0 10.4 6.2 6.1 10.4 10.5 7.8 4.8 2.5 2.3 2.0 2.4 ..

East Asia and Pacific 6.4 9.5 6.2 5.5 9.5 9.7 4.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.3 1.4

China -4.0 5.8 -0.3 3.2 1.1 -3.9 -8.0 -8.6 -6.2 -5.8 -5.1 -4.3 -1.7

Indonesia 2.1 9.5 13.1 5.8 9.5 11.5 8.6 5.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5

Thaila nd -1.7 5.5 4.7 2.2 5.5 2.2 -0.2 -2.8 -2.2 -1.0 -1.0 0.5 2.0

Ma laysia -3.2 5.4 3.6 2.0 5.5 5.9 3.8 1.3 -2.3 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 0.0

Europe and Central Asia 6.4 10.4 6.6 8.4 10.7 9.4 8.4 4.2 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.2 2.8

Russian Federa tion 13.3 14.1 9.7 9.0 14.1 13.7 13.8 12.4 11.5 11.7 10.7 9.7 9.1

Turkey 6.5 10.4 9.7 8.7 10.5 10.9 8.4 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.6

Poland 5.3 4.3 1.1 2.4 4.4 3.9 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.6 3.7

Czech Republic 0.9 6.3 2.5 2.9 6.4 4.7 2.1 1.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.6

Latin America and Caribbea n 7.1 8.8 4.3 6.4 8.8 8.6 6.2 4.0 1.9 1.9 2.7 2.8 3.1

Brazil 4.8 5.7 4.2 3.6 5.7 6.2 5.8 5.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.3

Me xico 5.5 5.1 3.6 3.9 5.2 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.5 3.9

Argentina 5.3 8.6 10.9 8.8 8.6 7.8 6.6 5.5 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.6 7.1

Colombia 3.8 7.0 4.3 5.5 7.0 7.8 6.6 4.8 3.2 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.4

Middle Ea st and North Africa .. 13.7 6.2 3.9 14.9 13.8 4.5 3.3 4.2 4.0 4.8 5.0 ..

Saudi Arabia .. 9.9 2.2 4.1 9.9 9.8 6.9 5.3 4.2 4.1 4.4 3.5 4.1

Iran 14.4 25.5 12.0 17.2 25.6 27.9 20.9 15.1 12.1 13.1 9.2 7.6 7.3

Egypt 6.1 18.3 7.7 9.4 18.4 19.7 13.4 10.6 9.9 9.0 10.7 13.2 13.3

Algeria .. 0.1 2.5 3.5 4.4 5.2 5.1 .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 10.6 10.9 7.5 7.6 10.9 14.2 9.6 8.9 9.7 7.6 7.4 8.8 10.6

India 6.7 8.4 6.2 6.3 8.4 10.2 9.6 8.9 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.5 13.4

Pakistan 8.7 20.3 7.9 7.6 20.3 24.3 20.3 14.9 10.6 10.6 10.1 8.8 10.6

Bangla desh 0.4 8.9 6.8 9.1 8.9 6.5 5.7 4.3 4.2 4.6 4.6 .. ..

Sri Lanka 0.9 22.6 10.0 15.8 22.6 17.0 7.9 2.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.4 2.9

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 5.4 6.4 10.4 12.1 10.1 7.7 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.9 ..

South Africa .. .. 3.2 6.1 9.8 9.8 8.9 7.8 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.9

Nige ria 9.1 11.6 8.3 5.4 11.6 14.9 14.3 12.5 10.9 11.1 10.5 11.7 12.4

Memo: ..

OECD 1.3 3.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China .. .. 6.2 6.1 10.4 10.7 7.9 4.8 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.6 ..

Developing oil exporters 13.4 12.0 7.5 5.4 9.9 12.6 11.0 5.8 3.5 4.2 4.1 4.1 ..

Developing non-oil e xporters 7.7 10.3 5.6 6.4 10.4 10.0 7.0 4.0 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.4 ..


Table A.9 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)

a/ Developing country aggregates computed using median. Industrial aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights. World total is GDP weighte d average

of developing a nd high income total. Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by GDP) of countrie s reported da ta in that time period.

For developing countrie s, aggrega te decadal growth rates are median of the decada l growth rates of the components. For high-income countries,

aggrega te decadal growth rate is GDP weighted sum of decadal growth rates of components.

January 28, 2010


Weights 2009 2009 2009 2009 Latest

1995 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec 19-Jan

World 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

High-income c ountriesb82.8 4.13 2.32 0.44 0.55 0.41 0.39 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.39

Industrial c ountries 80.6 4.15 2.32 0.44 0.55 0.42 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40

United Sta te s (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 5.02 1.93 0.16 0.19 0.18 0.15 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12

Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.70 0.70 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30

Euro Are a (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 3.84 3.89 1.28 1.99 1.13 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

United Kindgom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 5.51 4.67 0.65 1.09 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Other high income 2.2 3.37 2.16 0.31 0.36 0.30 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 ..

Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 6.52 3.13 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 ..

Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month ra te) 0.3 2.68 1.15 0.45 0.50 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44

Ta iwan (Inte rbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.96 1.93 0.12 0.18 0.11 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.12

Developing countries 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 6.71 7.18 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31

Indonesia (SBI 90 day rate) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18

Thaila nd (14day Repo Rate - BOT) 0.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Ma laysia (Interbank ove rnight rate) 0.3 3.50 3.48 2.11 2.47 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99

Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federa tion (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 10.27 10.87 11.38 13.00 12.23 10.86 9.45 9.98 9.40 8.96 8.75

Turkey (Interba nk 1 we ek ave rage) 0.6 18.37 17.05 9.71 13.21 10.09 8.46 7.10 7.37 7.05 6.88 6.88

Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 4.48 5.88 3.62 4.29 3.58 3.32 3.30 3.31 3.31 3.28 3.30

Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 2.86 3.49 1.52 1.95 1.59 1.35 1.21 1.25 1.25 1.13 1.00

Latin America and Caribbea n 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 12.05 12.45 10.16 12.66 10.37 8.87 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75

Me xico (CETES 91 da y closing) 1.0 7.36 7.88 5.52 7.42 5.43 4.63 4.62 4.64 4.61 4.60 4.61

Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 8.09 11.43 11.59 12.55 11.81 11.69 10.32 11.11 10.38 9.46 9.18

Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 7.94 9.68 6.28 9.13 6.54 5.08 4.38 4.54 4.40 4.21 3.98

Middle Ea st and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia (IMF discount rate) 0.4 4.79 2.89 .. 2.52 1.67 0.28 .. 0.44 .. .. ..

I ran (IMF discount rate) 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 9.00 10.17 .. 10.67 9.50 8.67 .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 4.00 4.00 .. 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. 4.00 4.00 .. ..

South Asia 1.6 .. .. ..

India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 7.04 7.90 8.90 9.00 9.00 9.00 8.59 9.00 8.76 8.00 8.00

Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 9.09 10.63 12.12 11.37 12.87 12.03 12.22 12.37 12.28 12.01 12.03

Bangla desh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 .. 5.00 5.00 5.00 .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka (Centra l bank repurchase) 0.0 10.43 10.50 9.03 10.37 9.55 8.43 7.78 8.00 7.83 7.50 7.50

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. ..

South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 9.61 11.61 8.39 10.82 8.50 7.24 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00

Nige ria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 9.13 9.85 .. 9.75 8.00 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD 83.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China 14.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters 2.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil e xporters 15.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figure s; except for the latest month, the figure reporte d for the latest month is the value on the date the data has bee n reported

(which is the last daily obse rvation one day before the note becomes ava

January 28, 2010


Weights Average 2009 2009 2009 2009 La test

1995 1999-08 2007 2008 2009 Q1 Q 2 Q3 Q4 Oct Nov Dec 20-Jan

World .. 91 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

High-income c ountries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial c ountries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United Sta te s .. 89 123 105 83 72 77 86 94 85 87 91 92

Japan .. 84 98 79 62 52 56 61 61 63 61 59 62

Euro Are a .. 99 457 403 222 131 188 215 265 247 278 282 277

United Kindgom .. 88 155 100 65 47 56 66 70 70 69 70 68

Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China ) .. .. 163 139 121 82 106 126 137 140 145 149 152

Singapore .. 80 18 10 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5

Ta iwan (China) .. 72 101 87 74 43 59 67 75 72 75 76 78

Developing countriesa,b .. 156 246 220 176 106 139 165 188 177 188 190 193

East Asia and Pacificc

.. 123 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China .. 118 230 202 182 131 170 201 218 182 189 197 195

Indonesia .. 207 414 407 356 145 218 295 339 286 306 300 310

Thaila nd .. 188 260 245 201 104 134 166 181 161 168 159 164

Ma laysia .. 116 177 159 141 98 115 134 149 147 155 159 157

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federa tion .. 525 554 490 259 164 247 272 343 302 347 349 343

Turkey .. 87 150 116 93 49 66 91 102 91 99 91 97

Poland .. 168 274 229 132 80 97 124 147 142 152 161 160

Czech Republic .. 354 768 847 577 381 475 576 580 681 675 673 648

Latin America and Caribbea n .. 203 352 361 291 182 238 284 345 315 350 360 367

Brazil .. 199 349 395 317 197 267 318 397 347 394 407 411

Me xico .. 193 350 302 229 151 188 226 257 252 264 271 285

Argentina .. 104 200 175 101 63 70 92 113 110 122 126 121

Colombia .. 352 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Middle Ea st and North Africa .. .. 261 231 164 103 134 158 181 168 179 179 181

Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

I ran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt .. 213 497 556 354 188 255 300 317 306 318 299 293

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India .. 198 334 297 242 120 177 216 248 257 276 275 285

Pakistan .. 241 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Bangla desh .. .. 241 369 447 425 487 569 597 567 591 618 623

Sri Lanka .. 229 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa .. 216 290 240 218 139 175 210 230 213 217 215 220

Nige ria .. 409 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil e xporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..


Table A.11 Stock Markets( indice s, year 2000=100)

a/ Average for De veloping countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002

Note: Qua rterly and Monthly da ta is constructed from daily data by ta king the last observation for the month. Annual da ta is the average over 12

months.

b/ Aggrega te s defined by IFC/S&P

c/ East Asia Pacific including South Asia

Source: World - Morga n Sta nley Capital Internationa l Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P EUROPE 350; UK -

Standard and Poor's 350; Hong Kong - Hang Seng Composite; Singapore - Singapore Stock Excahnge Composite Index;

All Othe rs a re IFC/S&P Indices

January 28, 2010


GDP Gross domestic Product Current Account Balance

2008 2009 2010 2009 2010

Cons. EIU O ECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD

World 1.6 -2.2 -2.4 -3.5 2.9 2.2 1.9 25 -284 .. 61 -342 ..

High-income c ountries 0.4 -3.4 -3.6 -3.4 2.0 1.4 1.9 -259 -284 .. -237 -342 ..

Industrial c ountries 0.4 -3.4 -3.6 -3.4 2.0 1.3 1.9 -341 -284 .. -322 -342 ..

United Sta te s 0.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.5 2.7 1.9 2.5 -424 -380 -434 -471 -432 -506

Japan -0.7 -5.7 -6.2 -5.3 1.4 1.3 1.8 142 131 126 183 116 146

Euro Are a 0.6 -4.0 -4.2 -4.0 0.9 0.3 0.9 -104 -52 -68 -72 -74 -11

United Kindgom 0.6 -4.5 -4.5 -4.7 1.2 0.6 1.2 -42 -32 -58 -40 -18 -57

Other high income 1.5 -2.9 -3.1 .. 4.0 3.1 .. 83 .. .. 85 .. ..

Hong Kong (China ) 2.4 -2.8 -3.2 .. 4.2 2.7 .. 24 .. .. 26 .. ..

Singapore 1.1 -2.3 -4.5 .. 5.5 3.8 .. 21 .. .. 23 .. ..

Ta iwan (China) 0.1 -3.9 -3.6 .. 4.2 3.5 .. 32 .. .. 31 .. ..

Developing countries 5.8 1.6 1.5 .. 5.8 4.9 .. 283.1 0.3 .. 298.1 0.2 ..

East Asia and Pacific 8.0 6.9 6.6 .. 8.6 7.7 .. 348.0 0.4 .. 358.1 0.3 ..

China 9.0 8.5 8.2 .. 9.6 8.6 .. 290.6 0.3 .. 305.4 0.2 ..

Indonesia 6.1 4.4 4.2 .. 5.4 4.5 .. 6.3 .. .. 5.7 .. ..

Thaila nd 2.6 -3.4 -4.3 .. 4.0 3.3 .. 14.2 .. .. 9.3 .. ..

Ma laysia 4.6 -2.6 -2.4 .. 4.4 3.9 .. 31.7 .. .. 32.8 .. ....

Europe and Central Asia 3.7 -5.4 -5.4 .. 2.5 2.0 .. -7.0 .. .. -10.0 .. ..

Russian Federa tion 5.6 -7.7 -7.0 .. 3.5 2.5 .. 46.6 .. .. 52.9 .. ..

Turkey 0.9 -5.9 -5.7 -6.5 3.3 3.0 3.7 -12.3 .. -12.0 -19.8 .. -19.9

Poland 5.0 1.3 1.0 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.5 -5.1 .. -7.3 -9.5 .. -11.5

Czech Republic 2.3 -4.2 -4.3 -4.4 1.3 0.9 2.0 -3.6 .. -1.8 -3.8 .. 0.6.. ..

Latin America and Caribbea n 4.3 -2.4 -2.3 .. 3.5 2.6 .. -33.5 .. .. -46.1 .. ..

Brazil 5.1 0.2 0.0 .. 4.9 3.8 .. -17.5 .. .. -35.6 .. ..

Me xico 1.3 -7.0 -7.1 -8.0 2.9 3.0 2.7 -12.2 .. .. -15.3 .. 9.4

Argentina 6.8 -2.7 -0.5 .. 2.8 1.4 .. 8.3 .. .. 7.5 .. ..

Colombia 2.4 0.1 0.2 .. 3.0 2.4 .. -5.8 .. .. -5.5 .. ..

Middle Ea st and North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 4.4 -0.9 -1.0 .. 4.2 3.3 .. 23.7 .. .. 46.4 .. ..

I ran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 7.2 4.6 4.7 .. 4.8 4.5 .. -4.4 .. .. -4.0 .. ..

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 6.3 5.7 5.3 .. 7.1 5.8 .. -20.8 .. .. -29.2 .. ..

India 6.7 6.1 5.5 .. 7.6 6.3 .. -14.9 .. .. -21.4 .. ..

Pakistan 3.6 2.5 3.7 .. 3.6 2.4 .. -5.9 .. .. -7.8 .. ..

Bangla desh 6.0 5.7 5.9 .. 6.0 5.6 .. .. 0.1 .. .. -0.1 ..

Sri Lanka 5.9 .. 3.0 .. .. 6.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 3.1 -1.8 -2.2 .. 2.8 3.1 .. -13.7 .. .. -16.0 .. ..

Nige ria 5.3 4.1 4.1 .. 5.2 5.2 .. -9.2 .. .. -1.0 .. ..

Memo:

OECD 0.4 -3.5 -3.7 -3.5 2.0 1.3 1.9 -381 -284 .. -378 -342 ..

Developing excl. China 4.5 -1.2 -1.2 .. 4.1 3.3 .. -7.5 .. .. -7.3 .. ..

Developing oil exporters 5.1 1.2 0.8 .. 3.9 2.5 .. 21.9 .. .. 61.6 .. ..

Developing non-oil e xporters 5.8 1.7 1.6 .. 6.0 5.1 .. 261.2 0.3 .. 236.5 0.2 ..


Table A.12 GDP and current account forecasts(annual percent change; billions of US dollars)

Sources: Consensus Economics Ltd.; The Economist Intelligence Unit and OECD.

Regional Aggregates:

Latin America and Carribean: ARG,BOL,BRA,CHL,COL,CRI,DOM,ECU,MEX,PAN,PER,PRY,URY,VEN

Eur ope and Central Asia: BGR,CZE,EST,HRV,HUN,KAZ,POL,ROM,RUS,SVK,TUR,UKR

East Asia and Pacific: CHN, IDN,MYS,PHL,THA

Middle-East and North Africa: DZA,EGY,IRN,IRQ,JOR,LBN,MAR,OMN,SAU,SYR,TUN,YEM

South Asia: BGD,IND,PAK

Sub-Saharan Africa: AGO,BWA,CIV,CMR,GAB,GHA,KEN,MUS,MWI,NAM,NGA,SDN,TZA,UGA,ZAF,ZMB,ZWE

Other Aggregates:

OECD:AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,CZE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,HUN,IRL,ISL,ITA,JPN,KOR,MEX,NLD,NOR,POL,PRT,SVK,SWE,TUR,USA

Industrial Countries: AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,ITA,JPN,KOR,NLD,NOR,PRT,SWE,USA

Other High Income: HKG,ISR,SGP,SVN

Developing Oil Exporter s: IDN,NGA,SAU,VEN

World Bank Document...Riordan (G-3, forex, edits), Nadia Spivak (trade), Betty Dow and Shane...

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Transcript of World Bank Document...Riordan (G-3, forex, edits), Nadia Spivak (trade), Betty Dow and Shane...