Document of'

The World Bank 7J`

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No. 2169-NIR

NIGER

LIVESTOCK PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

February 28, 1979

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients onlv in the performance oftheir official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit CFA franc (CFAF)US$1.00 CFAF 220CFAF 1,000 US$4.55

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES

1 kilometer (km) 0.62 miles1 square 2

kilometer (km ) 0.39 square miles1 hectare (ha) 2.47 acres1 kilogram (kg) 2.20 pounds1 metric ton : 0.98 tons

ABBREVIATIONS

APMU Bank Agricultural Projects Management Recruitment UnitCNCA Caisse Nationale de Credit Agricole

(National Agricultural Credit Bank)OFEDES Office des Eaux du Sous-sol

(Groundwater Development Agency)OPVN Office des Produits Vivriers du Niger

(National Food Marketing Agency)PMU Project Management UnitPY Project YearRMWA Bank Regional Mission for West AfricaUNCC Union Nigerienne de Cooperation et de Credit

(National Cooperative and Credit Organization)USAID United States Agency for International Development

FISCAL YEAR

Government and Project: October 1 - September 30IDA : July 1 - June 30

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLYNIGER

LIVESTOCK PROJECT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

I. BACKGROUND .............................................. 1

A. Project Background ............... .. ................ 1B. The Rural Sector ................ .. ................. 1C. The Livestock Subsector ............................ 2D. Livestock Subsector Strategy and Issues ............ 4

Il. THE PROJECT AREA ........................................ 5

A. Physical Features .................................. 5B. Population and Facilities .......................... 6

III. THE PROJECT ..................................... 7

A. Objectives and Summary Description ................. 7B. Detailed Features .................................. 8C. Cost Estimates ..................................... 15D. Proposed Financing ................................. 15E. Procurement and Disbursement .......... .. ........... 17F. Accounts and Audit ............... .. ................ 19

IV. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT ..... ........................ 19

A. Project Management Unit ............................ 19B. Staffing ........................................... 21C. Training ....... ............... ..................... 23D. Monitoring and Evaluation .......................... 24

V. PRODUCTION, MARKETS AND PRICES, AND FINANCIAL RESULTS ... 24

A. Production ....... .............. .................... 24B. Markets and Prices ............... .. ................ 26C. Producer Incomes ................................... 28D. Financial Implications for Government ....... ....... 29

VI. ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND JUSTIFICATION ......... .. .......... 30

A. Project Benefits ................................... 30B. Economic Analysis .................................. 30

VII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION ........ .. ......... 33

This report is based on thz findings of a Bank mission which visited Niger inApril/May 1978, comprisin0 Messrs. D. Steeds and F. Leduc (Bank) and Messrs.R. Biscaldi, M. Horowitz and G. Tacher (Consultants).

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without Worid Bank authorization.

TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page No.

ANNEXES

1. Responsibilities and Qualifications of Key Personnel 362. Supporting Tables (listed below) 403. Related Documents and Data Available in the Project File 47

LISTS OF TABLES IN THE MAIN TEXT

3.1 Main Project Inputs 143.2 Summary Project Costs 164.1 Project Staffing 225.1 Livestock Technical Coefficients 255.2 Livestock Production 276.1 Economic Costs and Benefits 32

LIST OF SUPPORTING TABLES AND CHARTSTABLES

1. Project Costs by Year 402. Project Financing Details 413. IDA Disbursement Categories and Schedule 424. Pastoral Center Beneficiaries Cash Flow 435. Breeding Loan Recipients Cash Flow 446. Backgrounding and Fattening Loan Recipients Returns 457. Governnent Cash Flow 46

CHARTS

IBRD No. 19078 Implementation Schedule 48IBRD No. 19077 Organization and Management 49

LIST OF MAPS

IBRD No. 13722 Location of Project Activities

NIGER

LIVESTOCK PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

I. BACKGROUND

A. Project Background

1.01 The project was identified in November 1976 by RMWA, prepared by

consultants in early 1977, and pre-appraised in January 1978. Further prepa-

ration was undertaken in March 1978 by Government's Livestock Department,

assisted by a RMWA staff member. Discussions with Government on a possible

livestock project began as early as 1969 and various project concepts were

explored and rejected. The proposed project foeuses on smallholder livestock

producers. It would consist--in the semi-arid pastoral zone--of an innovative

approach to provision of a package of services to pastoralists and--in the

cropping zone--of a series of specific livestock-related actions.

B. The Rural Sector

1.02 Niger has a population of about 5 million of yhom over 4 million

live in rural areas. The country covers 1.3 million km , of which 75% is

desertic, 15% semi-arid, and less than 10% suitable for crop production and

even this is of very low potential. About half the people live between the

southern border with Nigeria, where annual rainfa 1 is 700-800 mm, and the

500 mm isohyet. In this area of about 100,000 km , the main crops are cereals,

groundnuts, cowpeas and some cotton. Further north, as rainfall declines and

becomes even more variable, rainfed cropping becomes increasingly precarious

and livestock production increasingly important.

1.03 In 1970, the rural sector accounted for about 60% of GDP and 80% of

exports. Now, the sector accounts for about 40% of GDP and 30% of exports.

This dramatic change reflects the rapid rise in uranium production but also

poor performance in the rural sector. Recent crop production has been dis-

appointing, particularly groundnuts for which production has declined, due to

low producer prices and disease, from over 200,000 tons to less than 50,000

tons and exports have virtually ceased; although farmers have switched into

grains and cowpeas, crops now account for less than 30% of GDP and 10% of

exports. Livestock production was disrupted by the 1973 drought which

according to Government estimates reduced the national herd from 4.2 million

cattle to 2.2 million and from 9 million smallstock to 7 million. Although

herd reconstitution has begun, pre-drought cattle numbers cannot be reached

for another decade. Increases in prices of livestock products have, however,

largely offset the reduced volume of production; livestock now accounts for

12% of GDP and 20% of exports.

- 2 -

C. The Livestock Subsector

1.04 Productivity and Output: The cattle health situation is broadlyunder control and there have been no significant losses from contagious dis-eases for many years. Emphasis is given to strict prophylactic measuresagainst rinderpest, which is disappearing, and contagious bovine pleuropneu-monia, which is a threat in the east and the west of the country. Recently,efforts have been initiated to promote calf drenching agairist internal para-sites. For the cattle herd, pre-drought survey results revealed modest produc-tivity levels, with a calving rate of 60% and a first year mortality rate of35%. Although no post-drought surveys have been undertaken, there has beenno significant change in livestock inputs or management methods and produc-tivity has probably remained unchanged; the cattle offtake rate is about 11%.For smallstock and camels, the animal health situation is less well controlledbut also less clearly understood; vaccines against anthrax in smallstock andcamels have only recently been made available. Recently, t.oo, efforts havebeen initiated to promote drenching of smallstock against internal parasites.Very little is known about productivity of smallstock and camels; by inferencefrom surveys undertaken in neighboring countries, the offtake rate is about25% for sheep, 35% for goats, and 9% for camels. Total meat output is cur-rently about 70,000 tons per year worth about CFAF 25 billion (US$110 million).

1.05 Production Systems and Income: Apart from a few state ranches andsome smallholder fattening in the south of the country, livestock is raisedby traditional means. Although there are both nomads and wholly-sedentarizedlivestock producers, traditional animal husbandry is mainly a transhumantactivity, whereby herds are moved north behind the rains and south in the dryseason. For about eight months a year herds are watered from wells which,until about 20 years ago, were privately constructed and owned, generally bygroups of pastoralists but also by individuals where water was at shallowdepth. Over the last two decades, however, Government has constructed modern,concrete-lined wells and some diesel-powered tubewells that are open toall-comers. Over 90% of the cattle are managed but not necessarily owned bythe Tuareg and Fulani people, who each make up about 10% of the Nigerienpopula.tion. The extent to which management and ownership are separated is notknown but it is common and has increased as a consequence of the drought;there has, however, been no discernible decline in demand for vaccinations.

1.06 The integration of livestock and crop farming is still very limited.One widespread but modest link is obtained through contracts between pasto-ralists and sedentary farmers whereby animals grazing crop residues fertilizethe fields. A more substantial link is beginning to be practised in the southof the country; crop residues are harvested and stored for feeding to horses,sheep and goats kept in farmers' compounds. Very recently, cattle fatteninghas been started. Animal traction is little used, except for the drawing ofwater, but there is growing demand for work oxen and carts and, to a lesserextent, implements for cultivation.

-3-

1.07 The impact of the drought varied considerably, depending mainly onthe degree of mobility of livestock producers. In 1974, it was estimated thatabout 75,000 families had lost most if not all their animals. An unknownnumber of these people have emigrated but there is some evidence to suggestthat such migrations are temporary if not seasonal rather than permanent. Anyestimation of an average income from livestock necessarily disguises a widerange of income; and little is known about the dispersion of income about theaverage. Nonetheless for an average pastoral family of 7 people, owning 20cattle and 50 smallstock, the annual income from livestock in 1978 would beabout CFAF 150,000 (US$680), plus milk worth about CFAF 60,000 (US$270).Additional income from cropping, fishing and commerce varies considerably.

1.08 Marketing: Animals are marketed through a traditional private systemin which pastoralists sell stock either directly or through professional col-lection agents to large traders. Main markets have no facilities for cattlehandling or veterinary control. Apart from export of about 500 tons per yearof chilled meat, animals are moved on the hoof to both domestic and foreign,mainly Nigerian, consumption centers. Over half the cattle offtake but lessthan 10% of the smallstock offtake is exported. Processing: Abattoirs in-clude a modern refrigerated facility at Niamey with a capacity of 120 cattleper day or about 5,000 tons per year; throughput is about 80% of capacity. Newabattoirs are being built at Zinder, Maradi, Tahoua and Arlit; elsewhere,there is a good network of slaughter slabs. There is one tannery at Maradiwith a capacity of about 800,000 skins per year; throughput is about 60% ofcapacity. Taxation: Government has attempted to collect livestock taxesby means of head taxes, export duties and licence fees. Livestock head taxeswere abolished in 1973 and total annual tax revenue is now about CFAF 200million (US$0.9 million) or less than 1% of Government revenue. In early 1978,Goverument abolished the head tax payable by all adult citizens; now, livestockproducers pay no taxes to central Government, and livestock vaccinations arefree of charge. Farmers, too, pay no taxes to central Government but theyhave access to subsidized crop inputs as well as better access than pastoral-ists to public health and education facilities. Throughout the country,public wells are constructed free of charge, except that the beneficiarycommunity sometimes furnishes the unskilled labor required.

1.09 Services and Institutions: The Livestock Department of the Ministryof Rural Development has about 300 technical staff, including 15 veterinarians.Its main responsibility is animal health for which it undertakes annual vacci-nation campaigns against rinderpest and pleuropneumonia, specific campaignsagainst other diseases where outbreaks occur and, at veterinary posts, it pro-vides curative treatment services. Government budgetary allocations to theLivestock Department in 1978 amount to CFAF 400 million (US$1.8 million), with70% for staff. The provision of animal husbandry advice has received littleattention until recently; efforts are now being made to promote use of feedsupplements and drugs against internal parasites. A Herd ReconstitutionService was created in 1976 to be responsible for loans to destitute pastoral-ists and management of state breeding ranches. Other institutions active inthe livestock subsector include: the Caisse Nationale de Credit Agricole

- 4 -

(CNCA) which finances credit for cattle fattening and animal traction; theUnion Nigerienne de Cooperation et de Credit (UNCC) which promotes the forma-tion of cooperatives in the cropping zene and assures input supply anH primarycrop marketing; the National Livestock Company, a para-statal body whichmanages a ranch and participates in cattle marketing in the west of thecountry. Rural water supply is the responsibility of the Office des Eaux duSous-sol (OFEDES), a Government agency with financial autonomy, which con-structs and maintains stock watering points throughout the country. OFEDES isa well-managed organization, with a network of regional bases that are workingeffectively. Other services to the subsector include vaccine production,disease diagnostics and livestock research, all undertaken by the livestocksection of the National Agricultural Research Institute. Technical trainingtakes place at (a) the Livestock Assistants and Agents School in Niamey, whichproduced 16 three-year Assistants and 19 two-year Agents in 1978; (b) the Agri-cultural Technical College in Niamey, which graduated two livestock technicalofficers in 1978 and will produce six per year thereafter, and (c) foreignuniversities for advanced studies - in 1977, 27 Nigeriens were abroad studyingveterinary science. Training programs still put emphasis on animal healthrather than animal production. On the other hand, the recently-revisedcurriculum of the Rural Development Institute at Kolo includes some courses inanimal production.

D. Livestock Subsector Strategy and Issues

1.10 Government's main objectives for the livestock subsector are, first,herd and flock reconstitution, second, increased animal productivity to gener-ate exports at the pre-drought volume and, third, management of the semi-aridpastoral zone so as to preserve its ecological balance. No correspondingstrategy has been developed with the result that a variety of projects usingdifferent approaches has been designed, including state ranches, state breedingcenters, and provision of services to pastoralists. While not incompatible,these approaches all require staff knowledgeable about animal and pastoralproduction, yet such staff are scarce. Staff allocation and training policiesare therefore critical, for they will determine the pace at which differentapproaches can be pursued.

1.11 Government's approach for services to pastoralists was, untilrecently, limited to provision of vaccinations and stock watering points.These measures were and remain necessary but have had undesirable side effects.In particular, they induced rapid herd growth resulting in high stocking ratesand over-grazing particularly around public wells which, in turn, caused highcattle losses during the drought. Now, Government recognizes these deficien-cies and considers that, through the recognition of associations of pasto-ralists, it should be possible to (a) allocate stock watering points and there-by pasture to specific associations and (b) emphasize improved animal husbandryrather than herd growth as a means to increase output. Government's currentapproach for the provision of services to pastoralists is, therefore, a blendof its earlier approach and the newly-recognized need to increase animal andpastoral productivity through increased pastoralists' participation. There

-5 -

are, however, different perceptions within Government of the difficulty andpurpose - ranging from politico-administrative to productive - of obtainingpastoralists' participation; but some differences are to be expected, sincethe approach is innovative and little is known about the behavior of pasto-ral people. Project execution will therefore entail much learning by doingand project management as well as Government will have to be both flexibleand patient.

1.12 The physical production potential of the semi-arid pastoral zoneis not great but, in the aftermath of the drought, it is not being fullyexploited. There are, now, opportunities to accelerate the growth of cattlenumbers, to improve livestock productivity, and to increase the physicalpotential through better management of natural resources. In the croppingzone, by contrast, there is now little scope to increase herd numbers butthere are opportunities to increase livestock productivity. The proposedproject provides the means to take advantage of each zone's opportunities.In the long term, the livestock industry can be expected to become increasinglyspecialized by zone: breeding in the semi-arid pastoral zone, backgrounding 1/in the intermediate cereals zone, and fattening in the southern mixed croppingzone.

Previous Bank Group Involvement

1.13 Whereas this would be the Bank's first livestock project, livestockcomponents are being financed under two ongoing projects. Under the DroughtRelief Project (CR 441-NIR), the Bank has financed construction of two state-run calf feeding lots, as part of the national herd reconstitution program.Under the Maradi Agricultural Development Project (CR 608-NIR) which isprogressing satisfactorily, the Bank is financing vaccinations, drugs, creditfor redistribution of animals to destitute pastoralists, and preparation ofa livestock project, namely the project now proposed. The Bank is also con-sidering a livestock component under the Dosso Agricultural DevelopmentProject which was appraised in December 1978.

Il. THE PROJECT AREA

A. Physical Features

2.01 The pro ect area would includg the three provinces (sye Map) ofMaradi (39,000 km ), Zinder (145,000 km ) and Diffa (140,000 km ). Coveringthe whole of the south-east of the country, the project area would extendabout 800 km east-west and about 400 km north-south. The north-eastern partof the project area has a saharan climate with annual rainfall of less than200 mm. Between the 200 mm and 350 mm isohyets the area is essentiallypastoral; the legally-defined Pastoral Zone closely follows these isohyets.

1/ Purchase of 12-18 month cattle, growing them out over 18-24 months, andsale to fatteners.

- 6 -

Further south, the cropping zone can be divided into an intermediate agro-pastoral zone bounded by the 350 mm and 500 mm isohyets, and a mixed 2roppingzone, where rainfall exceeds 500m2 m; the latter covers only 40,000 km in thetotal project area of 320,000 km * The coefficient of variation of annualrainfall increases from about 20% in the south to over 30% in the north ofthe project area. Drought is therefore common but the likelihood of a droughtof the severity as that of 1973 is low; it was recently estimated at 0.02.

2.02 There are no perennial water courses. Irrigation is possiblefrom the Goulbi Maradi in the south-west of the project area, and from theKoumadougou, which forms the boundary with Nigeria in the south-east, butthe combined potential is only a few thousand hectares. Intra-annual fluc-tuations in the level of Lake Chad permit flood recession cultivation, butin competition with pastoralists seeking dry season grazing. Groundwateravailability is well known except in parts of the intermediate zone; thedepth to groundwater is generally 50-60 m except in the south-east of theproject area where water is found at less than 30 m.

B. Population and Facilities

2.03 The human population of the project area is about 2 million ofwhom about 1.6 million are sedentary crop farming people, mainly Hausa; theremainder, mainly Fulani and Tuareg people, are primarily if not exclusivelypastoralists. The livestock population of the project area is about 1.3 mil-lion cattle, 4.3 million smallstock and 0.1 million camels, in each caseabout 50% of the national herds.

2.04 The two towns of importance, Maradi and Zinder, each have about50,000 inhabitants. There are 14 other administrative centers in the projectarea, each with a population of a few thousand. A paved road links Niameyto Zinder and Goure to Lake Chad; construction will soon begin on the 180 kmstretch between Zinder and Goure. Maradi and Zinder are both less than 300 kmfrom Kano in Northern Nigeria, to which they are both linked by paved roads.In much of the south of the project area, the medium of exchange is theNigerian Naira, traded at about half the official rate of CFAF 380 per Naira.The rural road network in the cropping zone of the project area is welldeveloped; by contrast, the tracks in the pastoral zone require four-wheeldrive vehicles. Primary schools, adult functional literacy programs, medicaldispensaries, village health worker training programs, and cooperatives areconcentrated in the southery cropping zone; in this area, population densitytypically exceeds 25 per km . Further north, production techniques arenecessarily more extensive, the human population less dense and more mobileand it is accordingly more difficult and expensive to provide services; and,until recently, not much thought was given to providing such services.

- 7 -

III. THE PROJECT

A. Objectives and Summary Description

3.01 The main objectives are (a) to increase incomes through increasedlivestock productivity both in the pastoral and cropping zones, (b) to obtain

pastoralists' participation in efforts to improve management of their animal,water and pasture resources, (c) to broaden the field of competence of theLivestock Department from provision of animal health services to provisionof animal and pastoral productivity services, and (d) to increase and improvecattle and sheep fattening by smallholders in the cropping zone.

3.02 The project, to be implemented over five years, would include:

(a) delivery of drugs and feed supplements, and new vaccinesthat are not at present readily available, throughout theproject area;

(b) delineation of pastoral units based on traditional land-use patterns, formation and recognition of associationsof pastoralists, and construction and operation of fivepastoral centers which would each serve several associationsof pastoralists;

(c) provision of a package of services to associations ofpastoralists, including animal health, supplies andadvice on animal husbandry and range management tech-niques, and selective extension of stock watering points;in the five pastoral centers the services would alsoinclude human health and food stocks;

(d) credit, to be operated through associations of pastoralists,for backgrounding of immature steers and, for destitutepastoralists, for constituting breeding herds;

(e) extension of the existing animal health and marketing infra-structure by (i) construction of 11 veterinary posts and 20vaccination yards; (ii) improvements to two main, six sec-ondary and 13 small markets; (iii) construction of twosmall abattoirs, (iv) marking out of seven stock routes;and (v) rehabilitation of slaughter slabs;

(f) credit for, and advice on, cattle and sheep fattening bysmallholders;

(g) vehicles and equipment, some additional staff, and newoffices at Diffa, for the Livestock Department;

(h) staff and buildings for a project management unit, whichwould also be responsible for preparation of a follow-upproject.

- 8 -

The project is envisaged as the first phase of a continuing program of live-stock development. Depending on the results obtained under the proposedproject, a follow-up project would provide financing for more pastoral servicecenters and more backgrounding, breedi-k6 a -,a' cng C-.CJits; in adjition,the organizational framework will have been set up to permit more specificrange management activities.

B. Detailed Features

Vaccines, Drugs and Feed Supplements

3.03 Vaccinations against the major cattle diseases have been undertakenfor over 20 years and, though still necessary, are by now routine and do notconstitute a project activity. By contrast, drugs and feed supplements haveonly recently begun to be made available. The effectiveness of vaccinationcampaigns could nonetheless be improved by modernizing and assuring soundmaintenance of cooling equipment, and the project would provide for this.Their effectiveness could also be improved by better communication betweenpastoralists and Livestock Department staff whereby misunderstandings aboutthe perceived needs for, and risks of, vaccinations could be overcome. Thiswould be facilitated by the undertaking early in PY1 of an inventory ofvernacular concepts of animal health, diseases and cures, which would alsoprovide a framework for the promotion of drugs. The inventory would seek out,in particular, where the traditional Touareg and Fulani classifications differfrom those of modern French veterinary medicine, and from each other; then,and based on the success of unpaid village human health workers in Niger, theproject would train local animal health workers, who would also be unpaid ex-cept for an adequate sales commission. These paraveterinary workers, equippedwith a medical kit to be replenished through sales revenue, would provide afront-line first aid, health and referral service, and a two-way informationchannel between pastoralists and Livestock Department staff. The main drugsand feed supplements to be sold--both by paraveterinary workers and by Live-stock Department staff--would be (a) smallstock drenches, (b) calf drenches,(c) smallstock dewormers against tape worms and liver fluke, (d) trypanocidesfor camels, (e) calf supplement for the end of the dry season, (f) mineralsupplement for young stock and cows, ewes and she-goats, and (g) vitaminsupplement for young stock and breeding stock for use at the end of the dryseason.

3.04 Currently, the annual cattle vaccination campaign :Lasts four monthswhereupon staff, and particularly vehicles and equipment, are relatively under-utilized. By working to promote drugs and feed supplements, the project wouldmake use of this spare capacity though additional investments would also berequired. Given the ensuing practical problem of distinguishing project fromnon-project activities of the Livestock Department, it was agreed at nego-tiations that all expenditures for existing staff and vaccines againstcontagious cattle diseases would be excluded from the project, but that allexpenditures for purchases of new vehicles and equipment, anC operatingcosts for both existing and new vehicles and equipment would be included.While Government can be expected to continue to pay all existing staff, andto acquire finance for vaccines, an assurance was nonetheless obtained at

negotiations that Government would make explicit budgetary provision for

purchase of vaccines against contagious cattle diseases throughout the project

area for the duration of the project. The project would, on the other hand,

include provision of vaccines against anthrax in smallstock and camels, and

against smallstock plague. In addition, field tests now being undertaken in

Chad and financed by Credit 783-CD are soon expected to identify a reliable

combined vaccine against smallstock plague and para-influenza. If those tests

are successful, the proposed project would include large-scale tests of such

vaccines, to be undertaken with the assistance of three man-months of consult-

ant services. An assurance was obtained at negotiations that such tests would

be subject to IDA approval. A further assurance was obtained that drugs

(para. 3.03) and feed supplements would be sold, throughout the project area

for the duration of the project, at prices sufficient to cover costs of

purchase, delivery and final distribution, and that proceeds from such sales

would be put into a revolving fund.

Pastoral Units, Associations and Centers

3.05 A pastoral unit is a geographic area that is traditionally exploited

by a socially homogeneous group or by socially diverse yet clustered groups.

The project would identify such pastoral units and then build on their tradi-

tional social structures through the constitution of formal associations of

pastoralists. Identification would entail allocation of dry season and wet

season grazing grounds and transhumance corridors, as well as some areas com-

mon to several pastoral units in the extreme north and south. The identifica-

tion method has been tested in Chad under Credit 309-CD, and was successfully

used in Niger in August-September 1978 with financing from the Project Pre-

paration Facility. The identification team would work closely with represen-

tatives of government technical departments and traditional local authorities,

and would prepare an official minute and map of its work. Following each

year's pastoral unit identification work, through PY3, discussions would be

held with pastoralists with a view to forming an association, to which eligi-

bility for membership would be determined by the respective social group on

the advice of project management. Official recognition would be given to

associations of pastoralists and their rights and obligations would be speci-

fied by law. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that the appropriate

legal instruments would be issued by December 31, 1979, that they would

include allocation of exclusive rights to existing and any new watering points

to each association in its area, that they would also include a model charter

for an association of pastoralists, and that that charter would be subject to

consultation with IDA. In addition, Governnent prepared a first draft of

the charter which was discussed at negotiations. The project would provide

for the construction and operation of five pastoral centers, each of which

would serve several associations of pastoralists. An assurance was obtained

at negotiations that the final design and site selection of each center would

be subject to IDA approval.

Service Package to Pastoralists

3.06 All livestock producers would receive a more effective vaccination

service and better access to drugs and feed supplements. Those who are mem-

bers of associations of pastoralists would receive a broader package of

- 10 -

services, including: (a) priority for supply of drugs and feed supplements,(b) treatments against worms and ticks, (c) materials for castration, (d) ac-cess to two new forms of credit (para 3.07), (e) improvements to existingwells and selective extension of stock watering points where warranted byland-use patterns and carrying capacity, and (f) advice on range managementmeasures such as creation of grazing reserves, limitation of tree pruning andbush fires, and the trade-off between productivity and herd numbers. Firstpriority for delivery of these services would be given to members of asso-ciations within the sphere of influence, about 30 km radius, of pastoralcenters. In addition to animal health and productivity services to be pro-vided from newly constructed and equipped livestock posts, the pastoralcenters would also provide human health services and food stock. In eachcenter, a small human health dispensary would be constructed, equipped andoperated from which unpaid paramedical workers, to be trained in existingfacilities, would be supervised and their medical kits replenished. Suchtraining and kits have been supplied since 1965 in Niger, but the action hasbeen concentrated in the cropping zone. A small warehouse would also be con-structed in each center, for the storage of grain for human consumption andother basic foodstuffs for sales during the late dry season. For human healthsupplies and food stocks, sales proceeds would be used to set up revolvingfunds for further acquisition of such supplies and stocks, and an assurancein this respect was obtained at negotiations. The project would provide forup to 30 new pastoral wells where warranted by land-use patterns and carryingcapacity; an assurance was obtained at negotiations that the project wouldprovide new wells only where an association of pastoralists had been consti-tuted in an identified pastoral unit with sufficient grazing resources, andthat association had undertaken to provide all unskilled labor, in kind or incash, required for the well-digging. The latter condition would entail about20 man-nL?nths labor contribution equivalent to about 5% of the cost of a newwell.

Credit Through Associations of Pastoralists

3.07 An existing herd reconstitution credit scheme provides loans to pur-chase cattle for pastoralists and sedentary livestock producers who lost alltheir animals during the 1973 drought. In an attempt to maximize the numberof beneficiaries, most loans have been for one animal only instead of a nucleusbreeding herd. Loans are made interest-free and, for cattle loans, are repay-able in four equal instalments beginning at the end of the fourth year. Forthe first repayments due in 1978, performance varied widely between local dis-tricts but was generally poor. The project would support a new kind of herdreconstitution credit, by financing the constitution of 110 breeding herds of,for instance, five females together with ten immature males; loans would berepayable over six years, after one year's grace. Depending on the benefici-aries' preferences, loans would also be made for camel and smallstock breeding.Recipients would be selected, on the basis of their destitution and livestockexpertise, by project management from nominations submitted by associations ofpastoralists. In view of the destitution of credit recipients, and the longgestation period before herd growth provides adequate cash income for a family,these loans would be interest-free. Credit to individual pastoralists would,however, not be given without a guarantee from the respective association ofpastoralists; this would include a 10% cash deposit and a written commitment

- il -

to cover all defaults. The project would also support a second new kindof credit, for the purchase of 1,000 immature cattle for backgrounding, orgrowing-out on natural range, before resale for fattening. These loans, alsoto be guaranteed against default by the respective associations, would notexceed 80% of the purchase price, and would be repaid on resale of the animalsafter about 18 months. Individual loans would be for a maximum of 10 and anaverage of five immature cattle. Interest would be charged, as for the exist-ing cattle fattening credit program, at 9.5% per year plus a premium (presently1.5%) for a mortality guarantee fund. With negligible actual mortality, theeffective nominal rate would be 11% per year. Since average annual inflationover the period 1975-77 was 8.5%, and though it may be somewhat higher overthe next three years, the real interest rate would be positive. Assurances inrespect of all credit policies and procedures were obtained at negotiations.The modest scale of both breeding and backgrounding credits, which would con-stitute 3% and 1% of project costs respectively, is due to their innovativenature, their dependence on guarantees to be provided by associations ofpastoralists that are yet to be constituted, as well as the potential diffi-culty of finding appropriate animals.

Livestock Department and Marketing Infrastructure

3.08 In order to provide better supervision of vaccination campaigns andbetter access to drugs and curative services, the project would strengthenthe facilities of the Livestock Department in the cropping zone. Althoughownership and management are frequently separated (para 1.05), further infra-structure is warranted and the project would provide 11 veterinary posts, 20vaccination yards and new Livestock Department offices at Diffa. Apart fromthe network of slaughter slabs and the four new municipal abattoirs (para1.08), there have been no investments in marketing infrastructure. In orderto ensure better animal health control at markets and more hygienic slaughterfacilities in small centers, the project would provide for the construction oftwo main, six secondary and 13 small markets, two slaughter sheds, and for therehabilitation of slaughter slabs. An assurance was obtained at negotiationsthat final designs for the two main markets, at Zinder and Maradi, would besubject to IDA approval. The project would, in addition, provide for themarking out of seven stock routes between main markets and the Nigerianfrontier, to be equipped with wells every 25 km. Compensation, if any,payable to farmers would be financed by Government.

Credit for Cattle and Sheep Fattening

3.09 An existing credit scheme in the south of Zinder Province providesloans for cattle fattening, with interest charged at 9.5% for 12 months plusa premium (presently 1.5%) for a mortality guarantee fund. Credit is providedby the CNCA using rediscount facilities from the Central Bank. Individualloan applications are submitted through Village Solidarity Groups, a form ofprecooperative, to the local UNCC agent who, together with the local LivestockDepartment representative and the district sub-Governor, constitute a loanapproval committee. Final approval nonetheless rests with CNCA headquartersin Niamey. The loan recipient does not receive cash; instead, he selectshis animal, negotiates the price and the local UNCC agent pays the sellerdirectly. The system, though cumbersome, is working well; in 1976/77, loanswere made for 2,000 cattle and repayments were 97%. There is, however, much

- 12 -

scope for improvement in the feeding and care of fattening stock. Through theproject, the existing scheme would be extended to Maradi Province, to providefor the acquisition of 2,500 cattle for fattening per year by PY5, and tofinance staff who would work exclusively on improving cattie rattening pertorm-ance. They would focus on efficient storage and feeding of cotton seed, branand legume hay, as well as basic veterinary measures. The existing creditprocedures would be followed except, and an assurance was obtained at nego-tiations, that loan recipients would be charged interest for the exact periodfor which the loan was outstanding instead of a fixed twelve-month period asat present. In contrast to cattle, there is no existing credit scheme forsheep fattening, yet because of the lower unit value it is a relatively wellestablished activity, usually managed by women. There is nonetheless scopefor expansion through short-term credit, provided women are permitted accessto credit. The project would therefore, beginning in Maradi Province, consti-tute women's sub-groups within Village Solidarity Groups to whom credit forsheep fattening, 3,500 loans per year by PY5, would be made available fol-lowing the same procedures and with the same assurance as indicated for cattlefattening.

Follow-Up Project Preparation

3.10 A follow-up project would be prepared before the end of PY4, to bebased on: experience acquired with the innovative aspects of this project;the results of monitoring (para 4.11) of animal health and productivityactivities; results obtained in other livestock projects; and specific studiesto be undertaken. These studies would include, first, the identification ofhealth and productivity measures to be undertaken for camels. Ideas wouldemerge from the far greater communication between pastoralists and staffenvisaged under this project, as well as feedback from the trained paraveteri-nary workers; the incidence of infectious and parasitic diseases would beexamined through regular serum and faeces sampling. Consultants would be re-cruited, for a total of six man-months, to help carry out this study, whichwould be undertaken over a three-year period beginning in PYI. Second, astudy would be undertaken to identify improvements to be made in manual andanimal water extraction. Through regular, quarterly observations of selectedtraditional and concrete-lined wells over three-day periods, the study wouldassess the utility of cement curbstones, sluices to watering troughs, cementor plastic bases, and better pulleys, cords and containers. Consultants wouldalso be recruited, for a total of four man-months, to help carry out thisstudy to be undertaken over two years beginning in PY2. Third, a study wouldbe undertaken of the production, marketing and potential markets for quilichi,a form of spiced sun-dried mutton, which is produced in many parts of theproject area. This one-year study, in which consultants would participate fortwo man-months, would be undertaken in PY3. Final follow-up project preparationwould be undertaken by project management assisted by six man-months of con-sultant services.

Implementation Schedule

3.11 Volumes of main inputs are shown at Table 3.1 and the phasing ofthe main project activities is illustrated at Chart No. 19078. Pre-project

- 13 -

activities include the pastoral unit identification test undertaken inAugust 1978 and preparation of the ethnoveterinary inventory by the Chief ofthe Pastoral Activities Section, who has been identified. The pace of identi-fication of pastoral units and constitution of associations of pastoralistscannot be forecast with much certainty; yet these are prerequisites for con-struction of pastoral centers and stock watering points, as well as inceptionof the two new kinds of credit. The project would therefore give priority tothose prerequisites in PY1, including the launching of appropriate trainingfor staff and livestock producers. Training would continue for the durationof the project.

_ 14 _

Table 3.1

MAIN PROJECT INPUTS

UhJit Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total

Civil Works

Pastoral Centers No. 1 1 1 2 - 5Pastoral Wells No. 6 6 6 12 - 30Veterinary Posts No. 3 4 4 - - ilMarket Improvements No. - 10 il - - 21Slaughter I;heds No. _ 2 - - - 2Stock Route:s No. - 7 - - - 7

Vehicles and Eau:Lpment

Pour wheel drive vehicles No. ].3 8 1 15 8 45Light vehicles No. 1.2 1 - 12 1 26Trucks No. - 1 3 - - 4Ice-making machines No. 3 - - - - 3Radio Tran;3ceivers No. 2 1 4 2 - 9

Input Supplies

Incremental DrugsSmallst,ck drenches 1/ '000 u2 44 89 148 207 530Calf drenches '000 :L4 15 32 34 36 131Smallstock deworming 2/ '000 2 4 10 12 12 40

Incremental FeedCalf supplement tons 17 20 19 24 10 90Mineral supplement tons 67 100 131 175 187 660Vitamin supplement '000 29 36 52 72 41 230

Annual New VaccinationsSmallstock anthrax '000 528 536 548 550 554 2,716Camel anthrax '000 12 12 12 12 12 60Smallstock plague '000 792 804 821 826 830 4,074

Loans

Breeding No. - 10 20 30 50 110Backgrounding No. - - 20 40 140 200Cattle Fattening No. 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 7,500Sheep Fattening No. - 500 1,500 2,500 3,500 8,000

1/ Round worms.2/ Tape worms and liver fluke.

- 15 -

C. Cost Estimates

3.12 Total project costs for the five-year disbursement period beginningOctober 1979 are estimated at CFAF 3.3 billion (US$15 million), with a foreignexchange component of 52%. Costs exclude direct taxes and duties, as envis-aged by Government. Base cost estimates reflect May 1979 prices, expecteddate of effectiveness. Physical contingencies include 20% for civil worksin the pastoral zone, 10% for civil works in the cropping zone and for alloperating costs and new vaccines in both zones, but no provision for vehiclesand equipment, and staff, for which specifications and quantities are clearlyestablished. Expected price increases are compounded at the followingannual rates for both local and foreign costs; civil works: 7.5% to end-1979,7% thereafter; all other items: 6.5% to end-1979, 6% thereafter. Totalexpected price increases amount to 15% of total project costs. Costs aredetailed at Annex 2, Table 1 and summarized at Table 3.2.

D. Proposed Financing

3.13 It is proposed that an IDA credit of US$12 million (CFAF 2.64 bil-lion) be made to Government on standard terms to finance 80% of total projectcosts. The credit would cover 100% of foreign exchange costs estimated atUS$7.9 million (CFAF 1.73 billion) and 58% of local costs estimated at US$4.1million (CFAF 0.91 billion). Government would contribute US$1.5 million(CFAF 333 million), or 10% of project costs, which would cover 35% of incre-mental local staff salaries and operating costs. The CNCA would contributeUS$1.0 million (CFAF 214 million), or 6.5% of project costs, which would coverall loans for cattle and sheep fattening. Beneficiaries would contributeUS$0.5 million (CFAF 113 million), or 3.5% of project costs, covering part ofthe costs of pastoral wells, drug and feed supplement distribution, acquisi-tion of immature males for backgrounding, and all incremental inputs forcattle and sheep fattening. In addition, Government would continue to financethe costs of local Livestock Department staff working in the project area,about CFAF 70 million (US$0.3 million) per year, and would also finance thecost of vaccines against contagious cattle diseases, about CFAF 20 million(US$0.1 million) per year, but these are not included in project costs. Thefinancing plan is detailed at Annex 2, Table 2, and summarized on page 17:

- 16 -

Table 3.2

SUMMARY PROJECT COSTS

Shareof Foreign

Project Total Ex-Component Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Cost change

---- (CFAF million)--- -----(US$ '000)------ (%) (%)

Pastoral Zone

Extensionand Inputs 74 131 205 336 596 932 6 64Pastoral centers 237 314 551 1,078 1,429 2,507 17 57Credit 105 - 105 477 - 477 3 0

Subtotal 416 445 861 1,891 2,025 3,916 26 52

Cropping Zone

Extension andInputs 258 386 644 1,170 1,755 2,925 19 60MarketingFacilities 106 158 264 482 718 1,200 8 60Credit 256 - 256 1,164 - 1,164 8 0

Subtotal 620 544 1.164 2,816 2,473 5,289 35 47

Management Unit 239 389 628 1,086 1,769 2,855 19 62Base CostEstimate 1,275 1,378 2,653 5,793 6,267 12,060 80 52PhysicalContingencies 60 99 159 275 448 723 5 62Expected PriceIncreases 234 254 488 1,064 1,153 2,217 15 52

Total ProjectCost 1,569 1,731 3,300 7,132 7,868 15,000 100 52

- 17 -

Government CNCA Beneficiaries IDA Total…… ~~~~(US$ '000)…

Pastoral Zone

Extension and Inputs 28 - 12 892 932

Pastoral Centers 183 - 40 2,284 2,507

Credit - - 30 447 477

Cropping Zone

Extension and Inputs 476 - - 2,449 2,925

Marketing Facilities - - - 1,200 1,200

Credit - 827 337 - 1,164

Management Unit 445 - - 2,410 2,855

Base Cost 1,132 827 419 9,682 12,060

Contingencies 382 145 95 2,318 2,940

Total Project Cost 1,514 972 514 12,000 15,000

Percentage 10 6.5 3.5 80 100

3.14 The project account would be opened at the Development Bank of the

Republic of Niger at Zinder. Government would deposit an initial amount of

CFAF 150 million (US$0.7 million) into the account and this would be a condi-

tion of effectiveness. Government would replenish the account quarterly on

the basis of cash forecasts made by the project management unit in order to

have sufficient funds to meet project expenditures for the following three

months. An assurance in this respect was obtained at negotiations.

E. Procurement and Disbursement

3.15 Procurement of civil works with the exception of pastoral wells

(estimated cost US$3.3 million), vehicles and equipment (estimated cost US$1.5

million) and inputs with the exception of vaccines (estimated incremental pro-

ject cost US$1.2 million and estimated total cost US$3.8 million), would bethrough international competitive bidding in accordance with IDA guidelines in

the case of contracts over US$50,000. In the case of contracts of US$50,000

- 18 -

or less but more than US$10,000, procurement would be through competitivebidding in accordance with local procedures, which are acceptable to IDA.For contracts of US$10,000 or less, direct competitive purchasing would beemployed. Pastoral wells (estimated cost US$1.3 million) would be constructedby OFEDES (para 1.09) under a negotiated contract satisfactory to IDA sincethere is insufficient competition among local contractors and insufficientinterest from foreign firms in dispersed rural works. Vaccines for smallstock and camels (estimated cost US$0.3 million) would be procured from thelivestock section of the National Agricultural Research Inst:itute, a non-profit body with a proven record of quality products. Animals to be acquiredon credit and their feed (estimated incremental cost US$2.0 million) would beprocured locally by or with the concurrence of loan recipients. The servicesof internationally-recruited staff and consultants (estimated cost US$1.3million) would be obtained following procedures acceptable to IDA. Procure-ment of local staff services (estimated cost US$1.9 million) and operatingcost items (estimated cost US$2.3 million) would not be suitable for com-petitive bidding.

3.16 The proceeds of the IDA credit would be disbursed as follows:

Category I: Civil Works, 100% of total expenditures with theexception of unskilled labor required for pastoralwell construction: US$3.8 million;

Category II: Vehicles and Equipment, 100% of total expenditures:US$1.3 million;

Category III: Input Supplies, 100% of total expenditures on incre-mental stocks and new vaccines: US$1.3 million;

Category IV: Credit, 100% of amounts disbursed on loans forcattle breeding and backgrounding: US$0.45 million;

Category V: Expatriate Staff and Consultants, 100% of totalexpenditures: US$1.07 million;

Category VI: Local staff, 65% of total expenditures on incre-mental staff: US$1.0 million;

Category VII: Operating Costs, 65% of total expenditures withthe exception of final distribution of drugs andfeed supplements: US$1.2 million;

Category VIII: Refunding of project preparation advance: US$0.08million.

An additional category would provide for an unallocated amount of US$1.8 mil-lion. Estimated quarterly disbursements are at Annex 2, Table 3. Disbursementrequests would be fully documented; disbursement for loans, staff and operatingcosts would, however, be made against certified statements of expenditure, thedocumentation for which would not be submitted to IDA but retained by theBorrower and made available for inspection by IDA supervision missions and theexternal auditors.

- 19 -

F. Accounts and Audit

3.17 The project management unit would set up an accounting system which

would reflect, in accordance with consistently maintained and sound practices,

a true and fair view of the total project, with the exception of credit for

cattle and sheep fattening, which would be funded through CNCA and UNCC

established channels rather than through the project account. The accounting

system would include records of cash balances, stocks held, fixed assets,

credit granted for cattle breeding and backgrounding, and the operating

costs of vehicles and equipment. OFEDES would submit certified statements of

expenditure in respect of pastoral wells constructed for the project to the

Project Manager, who would have the responsibility to check that claims were

fully in accord with the terms of the credit.

3.18 The project account would be audited annually; the auditors would

also review the proposed accounting system early in PY1. During negotiations,

assurances were obtained from Government that: (a) the project account would

be audited by independent auditors acceptable to IDA; (b) the report of the

independent auditor would be submitted to IDA within six months of the close

of each project financial year; and (c) the report of the auditors would be of

such scope and in such detail as IDA may reasonably request, including a

statement as to whether or not IDA funds had been used for their intended

purpose.

IV. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT

A. Project Management Unit

4.01 Since the project includes, in the livestock subsector, some pio-

neering activities and some extensions to proven activities, as well as

activities in other related sectors each with their respective institutions,

Government would set up a project management unit (PMU) in the Livestock

Department of the Ministry of Rural Development. It would have three levels

of responsibility. First, it would be directly responsible for execution of

all project activities concerning the identification of pastoral units,

constitution of associations of pastoralists, site selection and operation of

pastoral centers, site selection of new wells to be constructed for and with

the participation of associations of pastoralists, and the granting and

recovery of credit for cattle backgrounding and breeding; these activities

are located primarily in the pastoral zone. Second, it would procure civil

works, equipment and supplies on behalf of the Livestock Department. For

these activities, located primarily in the cropping zone, PMU would also be

responsible for their increased utilization and effectiveness as well as for

introducing improved accounting, maintenance and stock control procedures.

Third, PMU would be responsible for the coordinated intervention of different

- 20 -

agencies in particular activities, primarily of Health and OPVN in operationof pastoral centers and CNCA and UNCC in cattle and sheep fattening credits,but also of OFEDES and Community Development.

4.02 The PMU, to be set up at Zinder, would consist of an Animal HusbandrySection, a Pastoral Activities Section and a Commercial and AdministrativeSection. PMU would prepare an annual work program and budget for each of thethree provinces in the project area, which would be submitted to the respec-tive Provincial Technical Committees. The latter, chaired by the ProvincialGovernors, are responsible for coordination between government departmentsbut they have no budgetary authority. Power of approval of PMU's annual workprogram and budget would be vested in the Director of the Livestock Departmentwho would, after obtaining the concurrence of other participating agencies,forward it by July 31 of each year to IDA for approval; an assurance to thiseffect was obtained at negotiations. The Project Manager would be responsiblefor introducing, by September 30, 1979, a project reporting system along linesto be indicated by IDA and, by March 31, 1980, a project monitoring system.Assurances to these effects were obtained at negotiations. A further assur-ance was obtained whereby Government would, within six months of the closingdate, prepare a project completion report.

4.03 PMW's Animal Husbandry Section would be responsible for disseminatinginformation on and promoting the use of drugs and feed supplements; in partic-ular, it would set up, monitor and revise the paraveterinary worker trainingprogram. Though it would have no direct responsibility for vaccinationcampaigns, it would contribute to their increased effectiveness by ensuringthat all equipment was in good working order, for which it would have budgetaryauthority, and by seeking out means of better communication between LivestockDepartment staff and pastoralists. For all associations of pastoralists itwould be responsible for designing, monitoring and revising the content ofrange management advice. In the cropping zone, it would be specificallyresponsible for improving the quality of advice given to cattle fatteners inMaradi Province and for initiating credit and providing sound advice to sheepfatteners.

4.04 PMU's Pastoral Activities Section would be responsible for identify-ing pastoral units, for which a consultant agrostologist would be engaged forthree man-months per year in PY1 through PY4. It would subsequently be res-ponsible, through local Livestock Department staff whose experience would haveto be complemented by short training courses, for promoting the concept of andarranging official recognition for associations of pastoralists. It wouldthen be responsible for selection of sites for pastoral centers, although itwould be free to make the case that any particular pastoral center shouldprecede formal constitution of associations of pastoralists; such cases wouldbe subject to IDA approval and an assurance to this effect was obtained atnegotiations. It would also be responsible, among duly-constituted associa-

tions of pastoralists, for site selection of new wells and for deciding inwhich associations the new credit schemes would be launched. It would beresponsible for the granting and recovery of credit for breeding and back-grounding, and for training staff and pastoralists in the filing of creditapplications, constituting the collective guarantees, and monitoring the care

- 21 -

and use of animals acquired on credit. Loan applications would be approved

by the Chief of the Pastoral Activities Section, the credit officer and the

respective provincial Livestock Department head. In collaboration with

existing Livestock Department staff, particularly those stationed at markets,

the credit officer would locate appropriate animals, inform successful loan

applicants, help them conclude purchases and, when necessary, organize trans-

port of animals.

4.05 PMU's Commercial and Administrative Section would be responsible for

all project accounting, budgeting and cash-flow projections; it would process

tender documents and other procurement papers, for which it would liaise with

Government's Rural Engineering Department, follow-up auditors' recommendations

and assist in setting up accounting procedures for the new credit schemes.

It would be responsible for implementation of sound internal and management

controls particularly with regard to stocks and receipts, and operating costs

of vehicles and equipment. An assurance was obtained at negotiations that the

Rural Engineering Department would provide all necessary support services for

defining specifications and carrying out site surveys.

4.06 PMU's internal organization, its relationship to the existing

Livestock Department structure, and to other departments and agencies, are

illustrated at Chart No. 19077. Responsibilities and qualifications of key

personnel are detailed at Annex 1. Appointment of the Project Manager and

of the Chiefs of the Pastoral Activities and Commercial and Administrative

Sections would be a condition of Credit effectiveness.

B. Staffing

4.07 Since PMU would not be directly responsible for most of the animal

health and productivity activities, its staffing needs are modest; nor do

project activities require large numbers of incremental staff in the Livestock

Department since there is already some under utilization of qualified staff.

Incremental staffing needs are shown in Table 4.1. The Project Manager and

the Chief of the Animal Husbandry Section would both be Nigerien livestock

specialists. Two positions in PMU would be filled through international

recruitment in which APMU could assist, namely the Chiefs of the Pastoral

Activities Section and the Commercial and Administrative Section. Consultants

would be recruited for (a) undertaking the large-scale smallstock vaccine

tests (three man-months, para. 3.04), (b) identification of pastoral units

(12 man-months, para. 4.04), (c) for training methods (six man-months, para.

4.08), (d) monitoring of animal health and productivity activities (10 man-

months, para. 4.11), and (e) preparation of a follow-up project (18 man-months,

para. 3.10). The project would provide, in sum, for eight man-years of tech-

nical assistance at a unit cost of US$80,000, based on recent APMU experience,

and 49 man-months of consultant services at a unit all-inclusive cost of

US$8,900, of which US$6,500 for salary, US$1,500 for living expenses, and

US$900 for travel. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that the quali-

fications and experience and terns of reference of the Project Manager, the

three Section Chiefs and the Credit Officer (Annex 1) and all consultants

would be acceptable to IDA; and that the terns and conditions of employment of

internationally-recruited staff and all consultants would be acceptable to IDA.

- 22 - Table 4.1

PROJECT STAFFING

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

LIvestock Department Grades

Veterinarians 1/Project Manager 1 1 1 1 1Animal Husbandry Section Chief 1 1 1 1 1tncrementto be recr-ited 2 - - - -

Livestock AssistanLts z/ ajPastoral Centers 1 2 3 5 5New Veterinary Posts 3 7 il il ilDrug and Feed Promotion 3 3 3 3 3Fattening Supervisor 1 1 1 1 1Increment to be recruited 8 5 5 T _

Livestock Agents 4/Pastoral Canters 1 2 3 5 5Fattening 2 4 4 4 4Increment to be recruited T 3 2 _

Expatriates

Pastoral Activities Section Chief 5/ 1 1 1 1Commercial and Administrative

Section Chief 6/ 1 1 1

Increment to be recruited 2 - (2)

Others 7/

Credit Officer - 1 1 1 1First Aid Center Chief 1 2 3 5 5Accountant 1 1 1 1 IVehicle Manager 1 1 1 1 iFood Supply CQordinator - 1 1 1 1Bookkeepers 2 2 2 2 2Draughtaman 1 1 1 1 1Interviewers 2 2 2 2 2Secretaries 5 5 5 5 5Storekeepers 1 2 3 5 5Drivers 18 19 19 19 19ClerksIncrement to be recruited 37 5 2

Total Staff 52 65 73 81 79

Increment to be recruited 52 13 8 8 (2)

Z, Veterinary doctors or equivalent, trained abroad; present nationwide complement: 15; annual increment: 2 per year.2/ There are two intermediate levels between Veterinarians and Livestock Assistants, namely (a) Technical Officers

(sraduates of a three-year program at the University of Niamey of whom the present nationwide complement is fourand the annual increment tua per year), and (b) Technical Agents who are promoted from among Livestock Assistantsand of whom the present nationwide complement is eight. Since no such staff are expected to be available to theproject, middle-level staff have been assessed as if all would be Livestock Assistants.

3/ Three-year studies at the Livestock Assistants and Agents School at Niamey; present nationwide complement 170;annual increment: 16 per year.

4/ Two-year studies at the above school; present nationwide complement: 196; annual increment:19 per year.5/ Sociologist.6/ Accountant.7/ Some of whom may be recruited from Livestock Department Grades.

- 23 -

C. Training

4.08 The project includes three innovative activities in which livestockproducers and Livestock Department field staff would need formal training. Aconsultant in training methods would be engaged for three months in each ofthe PY1 and PY2 in order to define training methods and review their effec-tiveness with PMU. First, paraveterinary workers would be trained and staffwould have to be taught how to train them. The Chief of the Animal HusbandrySection would undertake such staff training, through short courses in each ofthe provincial capitals, to be given in PY1 and PY2. Participating staff,about 10 per course, would be selected by their respective Provincial Live-stock Officers. Course content would draw on the results of the initialethnoveterinary inventory (para. 3.03), on the Section Chief's own experiencein giving the first few courses for paraveterinary workers himself, on hisinspection of such courses given by staff, and on his monitoring of theeffectiveness of trainees. Trainee paraveterinary workers would be selectedby District Livestock Officers and, for the pastoral zone, by the Chief of thePastoral Activities Section; trainees need not be members of associations ofpastoralists but the latter would be given priority in selection for training.One course per year, with about 5 participants, would be given for the durationof the project in each of the six district capitals that are in or close tothe pastoral zone: Nguigmi, Diffa, Maine-Soroa, Goure, Tanout and Dakoro.One course with about 10 participants would be given in each of the first twoyears of operation of each pastoral center. Course leaders would decide whichof the participants merited receiving a medical kit and would be empowered todistribute such kits.

4.09 The second innovation concerns the identification of pastoral unitsand the constitution and role of associations of pastoralists. Training ineach of these activities would be undertaken by the Chief of the PastoralActivities Section. Short courses for staff, each with about 10 participants,would be given at Zinder, the first course early in PY1, with subsequentcourses held once per year in May, which is otherwise a slack month. Par-ticipating staff would be selected by their respective Provincial LivestockOfficers. For pastoralists, such training would be given in one-week coursesto be held towards the end of each dry season initially in district capitalsand subsequently in pastoral centers. The Chief of the Pastoral ActivitiesSection would select participating pastoralists, initially from among tradi-tional leaders but increasingly from among members of associations andinterested outsiders. The third innovation, the proposed breeding and back-grounding credits, requires training for both staff and members of associa-tions. The credit officer would undertake such training as a one-day componentof the above courses.

4.10 Other training needs relate to human health workers and range manage-ment staff. Training of paramedical workers, undertaken by district staff ofthe Ministry of Health since 1965, has been concentrated in the cropping zone.Such training, and provision of the initial medical kit, would be provided bythe project through Ministry of Health dispensary staff to be stationed at eachpastoral center. An assurance to this effect was obtained at negotiations.

- 24 -

One course with about 10 participants would be given in each of the first two

years of operation of each pastoral center. Formally-trained range management

staff are very scarce, however, the ongoing USAID Range and Livestock Project

is providing such training through scholarshîps for degree programs as well as

shorter courses.

D. Monitoring and Evaluation

4.11 Each of the innovative project activities would be undertaken

on a small scale and monitoring and revision of such activities would be

a necessary, manageable function of those responsible for their execution.

Measurement of increased animal productivity would, however, require specific

monitoring work on calving, mortality and culling coefficients of herds

receiving different levels of services. Such information could be collected

by existing staff and project staff, and their task would be eased by being

able to work with associations of pastoralists and paraveterinary workers.

Consultants would be hired, for a total of 10 man-months, to design the

monitoring procedures in PY1 and to make an annual review of the results

obtained and methods adopted.

V. PRODUCTION, MARKETS AND PRICES, AND FINANCIAL RESULTS

A. Production

5.01 The main output would be increased production of meat, mainly from

cattle, arising from increased birth rates, reduced death rates particularly

in young stock, and increased culling rates. The main changes in technical

coefficients are shown at Table 5.1; carcass weights are assumed to remain

unchanged except for specific fattening activities.

5.02 Outside the sphere of influence of pastoral centers, incremental

production in the project area but particularly in the pastoral zone would

reflect both accelerated herd growth and increased herd productivity. The

scope for increased herd numbers would be limited by available feed resources

and this constraint would begin to operate by about PYIO with the project but

not until about PY15 without the project. About 20% of incremental production

in PY10 would be due to incremental animals, or the project's impact on the

pace of herd growth. By PY20, however, the animal population with and without

the project, constrained by available feed resources, would be identical when

expressed in tropical animal units, but different by age and sex distribution;

incremental production in PY20 would actually be less than in PYIO, by about

15%, but it would be due exclusively to increased productivity.

5.03 Within the sphere of influence of pastoral centers, available feed

resources would be increased, both by judicious siting of new wells and by

range management practices; herd growth would not be constrained in the same

manner as in the remainder of the pastoral zone with the project. There

- 2 5 -

Table 5.1

LIVESTOCK TECHNICAL COEFFICIENTS

Without With Project but outside Pastoral CentersProject Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

uattle

Calving rate 60 60 60 61 62 63

Death rates (Offtake rates)Males 0-1 years 35 (10) 35 (10) 34 (10) 33 (10) 32 (10) 32 (10)

1-2 years 12 (25) 12 (25) 12 (25) 1l (25) 10 (25) 10 (25)

2-3 years 5 (25) 5 (25) 5 (25) 5 (25) 4 (25) 4 (25)

3-4 years 2 (25) 2 (25) 2 (25) 2 (25) 2 (25) 2 (25)

over 4 years 2 (26) 2 (26) 2 (26) 2 (26) 2 (26) 2 (26)

Females 0-1 years 30 (-) 30 (-) 29 (-) 28 (-) 27 (-) 26 (-)

1-2 years 10 (-) 10 (-) 10 (-) 9 <-) 8 <-) 8 (-)

2-3 years 5<-) 5(-) 5(-) 5<-) 4<() 4(-)3 -

4years 2(-) 2(-) 2-) 2-) 2 (-)2() l/

over 4 years 2 (11) 2 (11) 2 (11) 2 (11) 2 (12) 2 (13)

Sheep and Goats 2/

Birth rate 105 105 106 108 110 111

Death rates (Offtake rates)Males 0-1 years 33 (20) 32 (20) 31 (20) 29 (22) 28 (24) 28 (25)

over 1 year 8 (50) 8 (50) 7 (50) 7 (52) 6 (53) 6 (53)

Females 0-1 years 30 (12) 29 (12) 28 (12) 26 (13) 25 (15) 25 (16)

1-2 years 10 (13) 10 (13) 9 (13) 9 (14) 8 (15) 8 (16)

over 2 years 4 (17) 4 (17) 4 (17) 4 (18) 4 (20) 4 (20)

Within sphere of influence of Pastoral Centers

Cattle

Calving rate 60 61 62 63 65

Death rates (Offtake rates)Males 0-1 years 35 (10) 33 (10) 30 (10) 27 (10) 27 (10)

1-2 years 12 (25) 11 (25) 9 (25) 7 (25) 7 (25)

2-3 years 5 (25) 5 (25) 4 (25) 3 (25) 3 (25)

3-4 years 2 (25) 2 (25) 2 (25) 2 (25) 2 (25)

over 4 years 2 (26) 2 (26) 2 (26) 2 (26) 2 (26)

Females 0-1 years 30 (-) 27 (-) 24 (-) 21 (-) 21 (-)

1-2 years 10 (-) 9 (-) 7 (-) 5 (-) 5 (-)

2-3 years 5 (-) 5 (-) 4 (-) 3 (-) 3 (-)

3-4 years 2 (-) 2 (-) 2 (-) 2 (-) 2 (-)

over 4 years 2 (11) 2 (11) 2 (11) 2 (12) 2 (11)

Sheep and Goats

Birth rate 105 108 110 113 117

Death rates(Offtake rates)Males 0-1 years 31 (22) 28 (24) 25 (26) 23 (28) 23 (30)

over 1 year 8 (52) 7 (53) 5 (54) 4 (57) 4 (57)

Females 0-1 years 29 (13) 28 (15) 24 (17) 20 (19) 20 (21)

1-2 years 9 (14) 8 (15) 7 (17) 6 (19) 6 (21)

over 2 years 4 (18) 4 (19) 4 (21) 3 (23) 3 (24)

1/ Increases to 15% in PY1O.2/ Separate coefficients are assessed for goats in the cropping zone, where the prolific red goat (chèvre rousse)

is the predominant race; see Working Paper No. 3 in the Project File.

3f Increases to 17% in Year 16.

- 26 -

would, moreover, be more intensive use of drugs and feed supplements thanelsewhere. In comparison to the remainder of the pastoral zone with theproject, incremental production from pastoral centers would reflect fasterherd growth, further increased herd productivity and, particularly after PY10,a higher permissible animal population. Incremental production from pastoralcenters would build up slowly through PY10 but subsequently increase; incre-mental production in PY20 would be four times higher than in PYIO. Theproduction effect of pastoral centers would indeed be long term, but it isimportant to start work soon, to seize the opportunity afforded by present,post-drought, low stocking rates to work with pastoralists to improve theirmanagement of the rangelands.

5.04 Total and incremental output by volume and value are indicated atTable 5.2, in which the incremental output from pastoral centers is includedin the pastoral zone. The rate of increase of output in the croppingzone without the project is modest because there is relatively little scopefor increasing herd numbers. While this constraint equally applies to thecropping zone with the project, in the latter case project activities wouldpermit favorable changes in the age and sex distribution of the herd. In boththe cropping zone and in the pastoral zone excluding the sphere of influenceof pastoral centers, the rate of growth of the value of output between PY10and PY20 is negligible. This reflects the limit imposed by available feedresources under systems of unimproved extensive grazing.

B. Markets and Prices

5.05 Increased output of milk, and of meat from smallstock and camels,would be consumed mainly by the producers themselves. By contrast, most ofthe increased cattle production, or about 10,000 tons of meat equivalent peryear after PYIO, would be exported, mainly on the hoof to Nigeria, whereimports are about 40,000 tons and satisfy 25% of domestic consumption. Givensuch a favorable and close outlet, and Government's liberal approach tolivestock marketing, no marketing problem is foreseen. Liveweight prices inmarkets in Niger are currently very high, averaging about CFAF 200 (US$0.90)per kg. Such prices reflect the current unofficial rate of CFAF 200 per Nairaand market conditions in Kano and further south, where frozen meat importshave reached 10,000 tons per year, retailed at controlled, subsidized prices.Until the Niara were freely convertible at its official value, and frozen meatimports were increased several-fold, which would require an adequately-equippeddistribution system, and consumer preference for fresh meat declined, live-weight prices in Niger would not fall from their present, apparently highlevels because of competition from the world market. Prices may decline,however, as drought-hit herds are reconstituted throughout the Sahel and WestAfrican beef production may increase more rapidly than regional fresh meatdemand. By contrast, Bank staff world price forecasts for beef through 1985are for a real increase of 31% over 1978 levels. To take account of thepossible decline in West African beef prices, whereby they may be once again

- 27 - Table 5.2

LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

Pastoral Zone Cropptng Zone Total

Value of Output (CFAF (US$ (CFAF (US$ (CFAF (US$bill.) mill.) bill.) mill.) bill.) mill.)

py 0 7.4 34 17.8 81 25.2 115

PY 10: without project 8.8 40 19.7 90 28.5 130with project 1/ 10.3 2/ 47 21.3 97 31.6 144increment 1.5 2/ 7 1.6 7 3.1 14

PY 20: without project 9.5 43 20.8 95 30.3 138with project 1/ 11.0 3/ 50 21.9 100 32.9 150increment 1.5 3/ 7 1.1 5 2.6 12

Volume of Meat ---------------------------------('000 tons)--------------------------------

py 0 13.4 29.6 43.0

PY 10: without project 15.9 33.6 49.5with project 4/ 19.5 37.3 56.8increment 3.6 3.7 7.3

PY 20: without project 17.2 36.0 53.2with project 4/ 21.0 38.8 59.8increment 3.8 2.8 6.6

Volume of Milk

Py O 74.5 190.6 265.1

PY 10: without project 86.9 203.9 290.8with project 90.6 207.4 298.0increment 3.7 3.5 7.2

PY 20: without project 92.7 208.2 300.9with project 94.4 210.1 304.5increment 1.7 1.9 3.6

Numbers of Animals --------------------------------('000 TAU) 5/ ------------------------------

py O 742 1,333 2,075

PY 10: without project 848 1,485 2,333with project 896 6/ 1,503 2,399increment 48 6/ 18 66

PY 20: without project 899 1,537 2,436with project 932 7/ 1,537 2,469increment 33 7/ - 33

Total Herd Value (CFAF (US$ (CFAF (US$ (CFAF (US$bill.) Mill.) bill.) mill.) bill.) mill.)

PY 0 28.8 131 47.3 215 76.1 346

PY 20: without project 35.9 163 56.7 258 92.6 421with project 37.0 8/ 168 56.7 258 93.7 426increment 1.1 8/ 5 - - 1.1 5

1/ Excluding value of putput from credit schemes: CFAF 117 million/year.2/ Includes CFAF 0.1 hillion as incremental production from pastoral centers.3/ Includes CFAF 0.4 billion as incremental production from pastoral eenters.4/ Excluding meat production from credit schemes: 250 tons/year at full production beginning PY 7.5/ Tropical animal units; 1 head of cattle: 0.8 TAU; 1 sheep or goat: 0.16 TAU; 1 camel: 1.0 TAU.6/ Includes 14,000 TAU as incremental animal population in pastoral centers.7/ Includes 30,000 TAU as incremental animal population in pastoral centers.8/ Includes CFAF 1.3 billion as incremental herd value in pastoral centers.

- 28 -

lower than world prices as was the case up to the drought, it is assumed forpurposes of economic valuation of project output that real border pricesex-Niger will remain constant at an average of CFAF 200 (US$0.90) per kg.

C. Producer Incomes

5.06 Incomes from livestock in 1979 constant prices accruing to averageherd-owning families (para. 1.07) in the pastoral zone would increase, withoutthe project, from CFAF 240,000 (US$1,090) in PYO to CFAF 295,000 (US$1,340) inPY10, or 2.1% per year. Incomes with the project would differ between thosewho are beneficiaries of pastoral centers, whose net income in PY10 would beCFAF 350,000 (US$1,590), and those who are not, whose net income in PYIO wouldbe CFAF 335,000 (US$1,520). The initial cash flow of the 1,000 beneficiaryfamilies of a pastoral center is shown at Annex 2, Table 4. The aggregate netcash flow line gives only a broad indication of any individual family's cashflow since it does not reflect the heterogeneity of herd composition. Thosewho own more smallstock would have a more favorable cash flow than those whoown more cattle. More important, it is assumed that not all animals wouldreceive improved inputs and the cash inflow is derived from technical coeffi-cients that reflect average input use. Those pastoralists who make higher-than-average use of inputs would have accordingly higher outflows and inflows,though their initial net cash flows could be less favorable than the aver-age. Average outflows start, however, at only 2% of average without projectincome, and subsequently increase to about 5%; no significant cash flowproblems are anticipated. Between PY10 and PY20 the difference in incomebetween beneficiaries of pastoral centers, and others, would increase as thelatter are increasingly constrained by available feed resources. For theformer, net income in PY20 would be CFAF 415,000 (US$1,890) and for thelatter, CFAF 350,000 (US$1,590); income without the project in PY20 would beCFAF 320,000 (US$1,450). These differences in income between the with andwithout project situations are not large but they are judged sufficient toensure pastoralists' participation in the project, especially in pastoralcenters at which human health services and food stocks would also be provided.

5.07 Average incomes from livestock accruing to herd-owners in the crop-ping zone would increase, without the project, from CFAF 89,000 (US$400) inPYO to CFAF 99,000 (US$450) in PY10, or 1.1% per year. Income with the projectwould increase to CFAF 107,000 (US$490) in PYIO. In PY20, with project incomewould be CFAF 110,000 (US$500) in comparison to CFAF 104,000 (US$470) withoutthe project. These small income increases reflect the limited scope forfurther extensive livestock production in the cropping zone where income fromlivestock, though significant, is secondary to income from cropping. Thereis, moreover, probably greater dispersion about the average in the croppingzone than in the pastoral zone, reflecting greater diversity of herd sizeand composition, and the varying extent to which owners confer management ofcattle, and thereby the milk income, to pastoralists; such arrangements wouldin turn reduce livestock income disparities in the pastoral zone.

- 29 -

Loan Recipients' Incomes

5.08 Recipients of breeding loans would be among the most destituteof the people of the pastoral zone but, five years or more after the greatdrought, would not be entirely without income and even animals, particularlysmallstock. The cash flow generated from five cows is, however, so slow that10 immature males would also be provided in order to generate cash quickly andto permit reimbursement of the principal over six years. The cash flow per100 loans is shown in Annex 2, Table 5; in constant prices net cash incomewould only be about CFAF 50,000 (US$230) per loan recipient in year 8, althoughthe capital value of the herd would have doubled to CFAF 600,000 (US$2,730)and milk would provide an additional non-cash income of CFAF 35,000 (US$160).

5.09 Backgrounding and fattening loan recipients' returns are shownat Annex 2, Table 6. Recipients of backgrounding loans would put up aboutCFAF 7,900 (US$36) per immature male and receive CFAF 14,700 (US$67) after 18months, for an annual return on their outlay of 49%. Loans would be given for

any number of animals up to a maximum of 10 per recipient. Recipients ofcattle fattening loans would receive a loan of 100% of the purchase price butwould have to put up about CFAF 11,700 (US$53) per animal for inputs; they wouldreceive CFAF 20,500 (US$93) after six months for a return of 75%. Loans wouldbe given for a maximum of two animals per recipient but, in view of the avail-ability of farm by-products, in most cases for only one animal. Recipients of

sheep fattening loans would also receive a loan for 100% of the purchase priceand, for four animals, would have to put up CFAF 13,000 (US$59) for inputs.They would receive CFAF 20,600 (US$94) after 12 months for an annual return of

58%. Such loans would be given for any number of sheep up to a maximum of 10per recipient.

D. Financial Implications for Government

5.10 Whereas beneficiaries' contribution to recurrent costs after theproject's development period would amount to CFAF 300 million (US$1.4 mil-lion) per year, Government's contribution would be about CFAF 180 million(US$820,000) per year in PY5 prices (Annex 2, Table 7); this would financemainly maintenance of civil works especially wells, vehicle operating costsand staff. Additional revenue accruing to Government from the project hasbeen estimated on the suppositions that existing taxes and fees would remainunchanged in real terms and that existing effective yield factors would alsoremain unchanged. Government would thereby obtain about CFAF 25 million(US$110,000) per year from increased proceeds from export taxes and fromlicenses, fees and export permits. Further additional revenue would arisefrom indirect taxes on increased consumption in the modern sector by projectbeneficiaries, but this cannot be satisfactorily estimated and has beenignored. Government would therefore incur a net deficit from project-inducedexpenditures and revenues of about CFAF 155 million (US$710,000) per year inPY5 prices, or about CFAF 110 million (US$500,000) in present prices. Thiscompares to a current deficit on livestock expenditures and revenues in the

- 30 -

project area of about CFAF 30 million (US$140,000) per year. Government'sdeficit would therefore increase nearly three times in present prices afterthe project's development period. Government is not, however, disposedto introduce vaccination or other charges that could readily wipe out theaggregate annual deficit because (a) although the project generates highaggregate net incremental income, of about CFAF 3 billion (US$13.6 million)per year by PYIO, incremental income per beneficiary family is not great(para. 5.06 and 5.07) and beneficiaries will remain poor and (b) Governmenthas adopted a policy of transferring part of its substantial revenues fromuranium mining to the rural sector.

VI. ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND JUSTIFICATION

A. Project Benefits

6.01 All herd-owners in the project area, or over 200,000 families,would benefit from improved animal health services. About half those familieswould benefit from improved animal productivity services, mainly more readilyaccessible drugs and feed supplements. Beneficiaries of specific projectactivities, with more substantial benefits per recipient, would include 5,000families in pastoral centers, 7,500 cattle fatteners per year and 8,000 sheepfatteners per year, mostly women. While the project's incremental outputarises mainly from improved animal health and productivity, the successfulintroduction of associations of pastoralists and pastoral centers would bea significant innovation. The effective collaboration of pastoralists andtechnicians in resource management would have major ecological benefits which,though long term, would also constitute an economically acceptable enterprise(para. 6.02). The Livestock Department staff's field of competence would bebroadened, both through on-the-job experience and formal training, from pro-vision of animal health services to provision of animal and pastoral produc-tivity services. At project completion, the Department would be equipped toprovide such services on a larger scale than envisaged under the proposedproject.

B. Economic Analysis

6.02 The following major assumptions have been used: (a) project life:20 years; (b) standard conversion factor to express local costs in borderprices: 0.86; (c) Project Management Unit costs allocated between the pastoralzone (19%), pastoral centers (44%) and cropping zone (37%) by their estimatedshare of the Unit's activities, excluding 18 man-months of consultant servicesfor studies for follow-up project preparation; (d) phasing-out of the Unit'sstaff and associated costs at 50% PY6-10, 25% PY11-15, 10% PY16-20, and atsimilar rates for other staff; (e) incremental output from herd models valued

- 31 -

as at para. 5.05 but not increased to take account of export taxes since thelatter are negligible; (f) no residual value attributed to remaining capitalitems at end PY20 but incremental herd value included. For pastoral centers,whose locations are to be determined, two without project situations have beenexamined, namely including or excluding project activities to be undertaken inthe pastoral zone. The actual situation would likely fall between these twocases. Based on these assumptions, economic costs and benefits are detailedin Working Paper No. 6, summarized in Table 6.1, and economic rates of returnare as follows: pastoral zone (11% of project costs): over 100%; pastoralcenters (31% of project costs): 8% or 15% depending on the without projectsituation; cropping zone (42% of project costs): 100%; and cattle and sheepfattening (10% of project costs): 17%. The overall rate of return for thesecomponents covering 94% of project costs would be 82%.

6.03 The high rates of return to the pastoral zone and cropping zonecomponents arise from the substantial and rapid benefits from animal healthand productivity measures whereby net benefits would be positive in all butthe first two years. In addition, most of the work would be undertaken byexisting Livestock Department staff and the initial herd value, too, would bea sunk cost. If the value of total herd output net of purchased inputs isexpressed as an annual return on the capital value of the herd, this returnwould increase by only two percentage points, from 33% before the project to35% in PY20. The return on the inputs required to promote this change is,however, very high. By contrast, the far lower but still acceptable ratesof return to pastoral centers arise from slow growth in incremental benefits,especially through PYIO; such slow growth also renders the return to pastoralcenters insensitive to changes in costs and benefits (Table 6.1).

Risks

6.04 The three main risks are of poor management, particularly in respectof the promotion and marketing of drugs and feed supplements, of problemsarising from the separation of animal ownership and herd management, and ofthe possible ineffectiveness of associations of pastoralists and pastoralcenters. Drug and feed supplement marketing requires a sympathetic under-standing of pastoralists' conceptions of animal health, diseases and cures, awillingness to make frequent visits in harsh conditions to pastoralists, andan ability to organize timely supplies and good storage of products. Govern-ment and Livestock Department staff are, however, keen to accept the challengeof their increased responsibilities under the project. Moreover, the ProjectManagement Unit's animal husbandry section would be headed by an experiencedsenior livestock officer, the Unit's commercial and administrative sectionwould handle all procurement, and the project includes technical support ser-vices by consultants to help design and monitor animal productivity measures.The second risk is that pastoralists managing animals which they do not ownwould be insufficiently concerned with improving animal productivity. Thisrisk applies, potentially, to all cattle in the cropping zone or 62% of allcattle, or 34% of all livestock, in the project area. Since, however, ownersnecessarily select managers in whom they have confidence, probably based on

Table 6.1 E05NONIC COSTS AND1 BENEFITS

Vent 1 Yest 2 Vent 3 Vent 4 TestS Venta 10 Y-an 15 Ysar 19 Tsert 20 j/ EU

pastoral Zone

înr,etlCents Pi 70.5 65.1 123.9 103.3 78.6 76.3 71.4 68.6 68.4

Benefîts with the proje.t 7.528.9 7.773.3 8.394.9 8,929.2 9,225.6 10,374.4 10,639.3 10. 72P. 4 17,534.3nenafitn cithout projoot 7.519.9 7,724.5 7,936.4 8,391.5 8,429.0 8,948.6 9,393.7 9,588.7 16,773.5

lcontlBenefits 9.0 48.8 458.5 537,4 796.6 1,425.6 1, 29. 8 1,133.7 760.8

Net Benefits (61.5) (16.3> 334.6 434.1 718.0 1,349.5 1,174.2 1,065.1 692.4 7100

Pastoral Centers

mnrreoeotal Conta 2/ 164.1 152.1 lî8.3 269.6 94.6 113.1 98.2 85.3 84.8

B e.efits wtth the prnject 258.3 535.1 846.3 1,493.7 1,553.8 1,797.5 2,052.5 2,144.1 4,604.5Be-fita vith.ut prejeet: A I/ 249.8 516.1 836.8 1,484.2 1,534.0 1,726.-4 1,769..5 1,782.5 2,879.7

Isrnne .esefit. 8.5 19.0 9.1 9.5 19.8 77.1 23083.0 361.A 1,724.8

Net Benefits (155;6) (133.1> (148.8) (260.1) (74.8) (42.0) 184.8 276.3 1,640.0 8

Pastoral Zone nd Centers

Net Benefits (217.1) (149.4) 185.8 174.0 643.2 1,307.5 989.4 788.8 2,332.4 7t

Cronoino Zone

ncentlCentsa 167.3 372.8 171.9 157.7 151.9 148.0 128.6 118.0 117.5

B.enfits .ith the project 17.899.2 18,477.8 18,794.2 19.471.7 20,109.5 21,377.4 21.837.3 21.963.4 31,411,9Benefito .ithout projeot 17,894.2 18,272.4 18,51s.5 18,716,9 18,933.2 19,766.6 20,492.6 20,694.2 30,124.01--nce -eotl Benefits 5.0 205.4 278.7 754.8 1,176.3 1,C1o.8 1,344.7 1,269.2 ee

Net Benefits (162.3) (167.4) 106.8 597.1 1,024.4 1,462.8 1,216.1 1,151.2 1,3,) 100

Animal Fettenino

1ncremente1 Conte 36.6 86.3 153.5 220.8 289.5 a84.8 283.2 281.6 281.6loor,aenîal Be.efit. - .36.6 95.7 177.5 259.3 341.1 341.1 341.1 341.1Net Senefltn (36.6) (49.7) (57.8) (43.3) (30.2) SÉ.3 57.9 59.5 59.5 17

Total 4'

incre,nntai Contn 438.5 676.3 6o7.6 751.4 614.6 622.2 581.4 553.5 552.3Inorenental Benefltn 28.5 309.8 842.4 1,47(9.2 2,212.0 3,448.8 3,214.4 3.105.6 (659.8)Net Benefits (416.0) (366.5) 234.8 727.8 1,637.4 2,826.6 2,633.0 2,552.1 (1,212.1) 8o

Note: pastoral Centero: B 5/

Net Besefîta (155.3) (139.1) (140.8) (269.6) (68.3) 105.4 325.3 442.5 1,755.8 15

Net Benefit Stresam frtes aboya Inoreesetl-Benefits Lcnoe.d 1 TeacUé -10% B -20% C +10~% Bn B-10 B -20% C +10%

Pantore1 Zone 5100 ,7100 7100 ,l00 7100 98.9 91.7 98.9Peetoro Cntra A 7.8 6.5 5.1 6.7 7.0 5.9 4.6 6.0Cropplsg Zone 99.8 90.5 81.1 91.4 63.1 58.5 53.7 29.0Aoi,nl Fatteinîg / 16.7 14.7 112.4~ 16.6 -

Total 81.6 75?.0 64.2 73.8 51.V 47.0 42.3 47.5

Note: Pastoral Centers: B 14.5 12.9 11.2 13.1 12.7 11.4 9M 11.1

i..Incldes incresental bard value, uliehicie negative ie the pastoral zeem (herd amasbre stilar bat agea nd nez conponitien different), positive ie pantoral centeraand 5*80 ie ties orpplg nons.1-1oîdtig chars of Project NeagsosB nt Unit Cents allocaerd (par lforkiog Ppepr No. 6) as foll-een pantoral wome 19%; pastoral cenrera 44%; croppieg zoee 37%;ellocatien pertaino te all ProJeet NanagSent Ueit neosn -ept 27 eaesethe et consultant services for studies.

31 Cna'.e;A pastoral ceoints trested as iacreasental te broad pastoral nons proejat antivities, i.n. pectoral cantater sthlout projeot ideetical te pastoralsons sth th. project, pro-ratd by respactive essbets of tropical aniai uite..Re Bprenents 94% of total projecr courts pastoral sema 11%; paetoral seniors 31%;, creppimg cene, 42%; anisai fatranieg 10%; receainimg coetst amn for breedtng lans(3%), connulrant serices for stedian (2%) and baciegro.edieg bans ( 1%).

5JCasa B: pastoral canters trented ns iscrescantal te the paeteral cons ewtthour îles projeot, 1.s. pastoral centear sitsd in melativaly muts locations hlers,tahiepesjaor' -broad astivitise le ries pastoral sens iesperativs.sensitivity cemductsd on cents and benefitn terbr than ries initial cent of aminci te ha fsttensd;, lagging of incre.,ental b.emaite by onesypsar Cet applicable.

- 33 -

kin and other ties, the risk is considered acceptable. Moreover, as noted at

para. 1.05, there has been no discernible decline in demand for animal healthservices in the last few years even though the separation of ownership andmanagement increased as a consequence of the drought. The third risk, thatassociations of pastoralists and effective collaboration between pastoralistsand technicians would be slow to develop, is significant but pertains to theinnovative part of the project rather than the whole. To reduce this risk, apastoral unit identification test was undertaken in part of the project areain August-September 1978. Headed by a sociologist, the team identified sevenpastoral units and concluded that associations of pastoralists could indeed beconstituted and operational. In addition, the chief of the Project ManagementUnit's pastoral activities section, a sociologist familiar with the projectarea, has already been identified. Above all, senior Livestock Departmentstaff, aware of the danger of a top-down approach to animal and pastoralproductivity, are keen to begin to work with pastoralists rather than simplywith their animals.

6.05 Sensitivity tests have been used to evaluate the potential impactof these and other risks. Rates of return to the pastoral zone and croppingzone components are sensitive to an overall delay of one year in their bene-fits but remain high; the return in the cropping zone would fall from 100% to63%. By contrast, the rate of return to pastoral centers with a one-yeardelay in project benefits would only fall from 7.8% to 7.0%. These testsindicate that the project could withstand the possible risks yet still beeconomically viable.

VII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION

7.01 During negotiations, assurances were obtained from Governmentthat:

(i) Government would make explicit budgetary provision forpurchases of vaccines against contagious cattle diseasesthroughout the project area for the duration of theproject (para. 3.04);

(ii) large-scale tests of a combined vaccine against small-stock plague and para-influenza would be subject toIDA approval (para. 3.04);

(iii) drugs as listed at para. 3.03 and feed supplementswould be sold, throughout the project area for theduration of the project, at prices sufficient to covercosts of purchase, delivery and final distribution,and proceeds from such sales would be put into arevolving fund (para. 3.04);

- 34 -

(iv) the legal instruments required to provide for officialrecognition of associations of pastoralists would beissued by December 31, 1979, that they would includeallocation of exclusive watering rights to each associa-tion in its area, that they would also include a modelcharter for an association of pastoralists, and that thecharter would be subject to consultation with IDA (para.3.05);

(v) the final design and site selection of each pastoral centerwould be subject to IDA approval (para. 3.05);

(vi) proceeds from sales of human health supplies and food stockswould be used to set up revolving funds for further acquisi-tion of such supplies and stocks (para. 3.06);

(vii) the project would provide new pastoral wells only wherean association of pastoralists had been constituted inan identified pastoral unit with sufficient grazingresources, and that association had undertaken to provideall unskilled labor, in kind or in cash, required forwell-digging (para. 3.06);

(viii) all credit policies and procedures would be as specifiedat para. 3.07;

(ix) final designs for the two main markets, at Zinder andMaradi, would be subject to IDA approval (para. 3.08);

(x) recipients of loans for cattle and sheep fattening wouldbe charged interest for the exact period for which theloan was outstanding (para. 3.09);

(xi) Government would replenish the project account quarterlyon the basis of cash forecasts made by the project manage-ment unit (para. 3.14);

(xii) the contract to be negotiated with OFEDES for pastoral wellconstruction would be satisfactory to IDA (para. 3.15);

(xiii) the project account would be audited and reports submittedto IDA as detailed in para. 3.18;

(xiv) the project's annual work program and budget would be for-warded by the Director of the Livestock Department, byJuly 31 of each year, to IDA for approval (para. 4.02);

(xv) the project manager would introduce by September 30, 1979,a reporting system along lines to be indicated by IDA and,by March 31, 1980, a project monitoring system (para. 4.02);

- 35 -

(xvi) Government would within six months of the closing dateprepare a project completion report (para. 4.02);

(xvii) construction of any particular pastoral center prior toformal constitution of associations of pastoralists wouldbe subject to IDA approval (para. 4.04);

(xviii) the Rural Engineering Department would provide all necessarysupport services to PMU for defining specifications andcarrying out site surveys (para. 4.05);

(xix) the qualifications and experience and terms of reference ofthe Project Manager, the three Section Chiefs and the CreditOfficer (Annex 1) and all consultants would be acceptableto IDA; and the terms and conditions of employment ofinternationally-recruited staff and all consultants wouldbe acceptable to IDA (para. 4.07);

(xx) the Ministry of Health would station dispensary staff,who would also undertake training of paramedical workers,in each pastoral center (para. 4.10).

7.02 Conditions of effectiveness would be that:

(i) Government had made an initial deposit of CFAF 150 million(US$0.6 million) into the project account (para. 3.14);

(ii) the Project Manager and Chiefs of the Pastoral ActivitiesSection and the Commercial and Administrative Section hadbeen appointed (para. 4.06).

7.03 With the indicated assurances and conditions, the proposed projectis suitable for a credit on standard terms of US$12 million equivalent tothe Government of Niger.

- 36 -

ANNEX 1Page 1

NIGER

LIVESTOCK PROJECT

Responsibilities and Qualifications of Key Personnel

1. Project Manager

1.1 The project manager would be head of the Project Management Unit andas such he would be responsible for the technical, financial and economicsuccess of the project. He would be specifically responsible for:

(a) preparing annual work programs and budgets;

(b) establishing a reporting system and preparing periodic andannual progress reports;

(c) obtaining the issuance of legal instruments governing therights and obligations of associations of pastoralists;

(d) coordinating the participation of the Ministry of Health,OPVN, CNCA, UNCC, OFEDES and the Community DevelopmentDepartment in project activities, through his attendanceas full member of the three Provincial Technical Committees;

(e) coordinating project activities with other interventions inthe livestock sector in or of relevance to the project area;

(f) ensuring adherence to all covenants in the Credit Agreement;

(g) preparing a follow-up livestock project.

1.2 The qualifications and experience of the project manager would be:

(a) a postgraduate degree (or its equivalent), preferably in agri-culture or veterinary science;

(b) actual experience or an indicated potential as a leader ableto coordinate the activities of a team and/or differentagencies;

(c) field experience in working with pastoral peoples indicatinga capacity for gaining their confidence;

(d) general management skills including preferably somefamiliarity with credit in the rural sector.

- 37 -

ANNEX 1

Page 2

2. Chief of the Animal Husbandry Section

2.1 Under the direction of the project manager, he would be responsiblefor:

(a) promoting increased use of drugs and feed supplements, arrang-

ing for training of paraveterinary workers to be undertakenby Livestock Department staff, and teaching staff how to givethat training, and reviewing the effectiveness of trainees;

(b) improving the quality of advice given to cattle fattenersand initiating the provision of credit and sound advice tosheep fatteners;

(c) improving the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns throughprovision of equipment in good working order and throughbetter communication between staff and livestock producers;

(d) designing, monitoring and improving the animal husbandry andrange management advice to be given to all associations ofpastoralists;

(e) improving the quality of market statistics and supervisingdata-gathering for all project studies.

2.2 The qualifications and experience of the Animal Husbandry SectionChief would be:

(a) a postgraduate degree (or its equivalent), preferably inanimal production;

(b) field experience in working with pastoral and sedentarypeoples, preferably in the project area, indicating acapacity for gaining their confidence;

(c) willingness to work in the field away from project headquartersfor an average of 15 days per month;

(d) some familiarity with range management theory and practice;

(e) proven capability to guide and motivate lower-level staff.

3. Chief of the Pastoral Activities Section

3.1 Under the direction of the project manager, he would be responsiblefor:

(a) identifying pastoral units, including sites for new wells,and engaging consultants to assist him in that task;

- 38 -

ANNEX 1Page 3

(b) constituting associations of pastoralists and training Live-stock Department staff in that task;

(c) selecting sites for pastoral centers and supervising theoperation of such centers;

(d) undertaking an ethnoveterinary inventory and preparing amanual for use in training paraveterinary workers;

(e) supervising the setting up and operation of credit schemesfor breeding and backgrounding.

3.2 The qualifications and experience of the Pastoral Activities SectionChief would be:

(a) an appropriate university degree;

(b) field experience in working with pastoral peoples, prefer-ably in the project area, indicating a capacity for gainingtheir confidence;

(c) willingness to work in the field away from project headquartersfor an average of 15 days per month;

(d) a good knowledge of French and at least one local language.

4. Credit Officer

4.1 Under the direction of the Chief of the Pastoral Activities Section,he would be responsible for:

(a) explaining to associations of pastoralists the two new formsof credit and the guarantees to be put up;

(b) designing credit processing forms, the accounting system andrepayment mechanisms;

(c) preparing illustrative budgets for potential loan recipients;

(d) supervising the acquisition and marking of animals acquiredon credit;

(e) setting up and servicing, as secretary and full member, eachprovincial loan approval committee.

4.2 The qualifications and experience of the credit officer would be:

(a) actual experience or an indicated potential as an innovator;

- 39 -

ANNEX 1Page 4

(b) field experience in working with pastoral people, preferablyin the project area, indicating a capacity for gaining theirconfidence;

(c) willingness to work in the field away from project headquartersfor an average of 15 days per month;

(d) actual experience in operating a credit scheme in the ruralsector.

5. Chief of the Commercial and Administrative Section

5.1 Under the direction of the project manager, he would be responsiblefor:

(a) setting up detailed accounts and a consolidated project accountand control of bookkeeping;

(b) preparing detailed annual budgets and quarterly cash flowprojections;

(c) designing and implementing sound internal and managementcontrols particularly with regard to equipment maintenance,stocks and receipts, and vehicle operating costs;

(d) processing of tender documents and other procurement papers;

(e) preparing applications for withdrawal from the IDA creditaccount;

(f) assisting the credit officer in setting up accounting pro-cedures for the new forms of credit;

(g) follow-up of auditors' recommendations.

5.2 The qualifications and experience of the Commercial and Administra-tive Section Chief would be:

(a) a university degree (or its equivalent) or membership in arecognized professional body evidencing formal knowledgeof modern accounting theory and practice in accordancewith generally accepted international standards;

(b) five years professional experience, preferably in a countryusing the OCAM or French accounting plans and some of whichin a commercial enterprise;

(c) actual experience with procurement, preferably with civilworks as well as supplies;

(d) a good knowledge of French.

-40- ANNEX 2

Table 1

NIGER

LIVESTOCK PROJECT

Project Costs by tear

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total Total Foreign Exchange------- (CFAF '000, May 1979 prices) --------- ---- (US$'000) (%)

Pastoral Zone 1/

Civil Works 28,080 11,189 41,969 21,600 - 102,838 467 60Vehicles and Equipment 214 171 13,544 652 652 15,233 69 90Input Supplies 14,212 9,673 12,563 13,539 19,522 69,509 316 75Staff - - 4,275 4,275 4,275 12,825 58 0Operating Costs 770 770 1,090 1,090 1,090 4,810 22 65Subtotal 43,276 21,803 73,441 41,156 25,539 205,215 932 64

Pastoral Centers 2/

Civil Works 58,720 58,720 58,720 117,439 - 293,599 1,336 60Vehicles and Equipment 10,500 10,692 10,885 24,273 3,658 60,008 273 90

Input Supplies 11,434 13,312 15,566 29,421 8,496 78,229 356 75Staff 4,848 9,696 14,544 24,240 24,240 77,568 353 0Operating Costs 2,662 5,418 7,773 12,910 12,822 41,585 189 65Subtotal 88,164 97,838 107,488 208,283 49,216 550,989 2,507 57

Credit for Breeding andBackgrounding 3/ - 6,805 17,212 27,273 53,765 105,055 477 0

Cropping Zone 4/

Civil Works 35,138 245,894 45,085 - - 326,117 1,482 60Vehicles and Equipment 46,843 28,530 21,690 33,459 22,469 152,991 695 90Input Supplies 20,824 17,985 22,298 34,337 33,760 129,204 587 75Staff 17,250 25,672 27,193 27,193 27,193 124,501 566 0Operating Costs 34,395 35,036 35,197 35,197 35,197 175,022 795 65Subtotal 154,450 353,117 151,463 130,186 118,619 907,835 4,125 60

Credit for Cattle andSheep Fattening 3/ 30,648 47,608 63,271 59,314 55,353 256,194 1,164 °

Proicet Management Unit 5/

Civil Works 29,743 - - - - 29,743 135 60Vehicles and Equipment 36,413 8,926 160 19,227 160 64,886 295 90Staff 76,543 86,266 96,742 84,171 23,409 367,131 1,669 55Dperating Costs 37,347 38,843 33,498 28,153 28,153 165,994 756 65Subtotal 180,046 134,035 130,400 131,551 51,722 627,754 2,855 62

Base Cost Estimate 496,584 661,206 543,275 597,763 354,214 2,653,042 12,060 52

Physical Contingencies 32,150 47,376 33,187 37,037 9,232 158,982 723 62Expected Price Increases 6/ 18,326 73,340 97,582 153,479 110,851 453,578 2,062 52

Total Project Cost 547,060 781,922 674,044 788,279 474,297 3,265,602 14,845 7/ 52

1/ Working Paper 5, Table 1.2/ Working Paper 5, Table 2.3/ Working Paper 5, Table 4.4/ Working Paper 5, Table 3.5/ Working Paper 5, Table 5.61 Civil works: 7.5% per year through end-1979, 7% thereafter; all other items: 6.5% per year through end-1979,

6% thereafter. Inflation factors are: Year 1: civil works 3.8%, all other items 3.3%; Year 2: civil works11.1%, all other items 9.6%; Year 3: civil works 18.9%, all other items 16.1%; Year 4: civil works 27.2%, allother items 23.1%; Year 5: civil works 36.1%, all other items 30.5%.

7/ Not rounded. Shown in text (Table 3.2) as US$ 15 million, with Expected Price Increases increased toUS$ 2.217 million for consistency of the text table.

- 41 -

NIGER ANNEX 2Ta blie 2

LIVESTOCR PROJECT

Proj ct pc±gl Petailu

Total Government CNCA Beneficiaries IDAA. By Activity CFAF H $'O0 CFAF H $'000 CFAF M $'000 CFAF H 'O000 CFAF M $'O00

Pastoral Zone

Civil Works 102.8 467 - - - - 2.7 12 100.1 455Vehicles andEquipment 15.2 69 - - - - - - 15.2 69Input Supplies 69.5 316 - - - - 69.5 316

Staff 12.8 58 4.5 20 - - - - 8.3 38Operating Costs 4.8 22 1.7 8 - - - - 3.1 14Subtotal 205.1 932 6.2 28 2.- 2-7 12 196.2 892

Pastoral Centers

Civil Works 293.6 1,336 - - - 4.5 20 289.1 1,316Vehicles andEquipsent 60.0 273 - - - _ - - 60.0 273Input Supplies 78.2 356 - - _- - 78.2 356Staff 77.6 353 Z7.2 124 - - 50.4 229Operating Costs 41.6 189 13.0 59 - - 4.4 20 24.2 110Subtotal 551.0 2.507 40.2 183 _ 8.9 .40 501 2.84

Credit for Breeding 47 -65 3 1. 4and Backgrounding 105.1 477 - - _ - 6.5 30 98.6 447

Cropping Zone

Civil Works 326.1 1,482 - - - - - - 326.1 1,482Vehicles andEquipment 353,0 695 - - - _ _ _ 153.0 695Input Supplies 129.2 -. 687 - - - - - 129.2 587Staff 124.5 566 43.6 198 - - - - 80.9 368Operating Costs 175.0 795 61.2 278 - - - 113.8 517-_ubtotal 907 4,125 104.8 476 _ _ _ - 803.0 3,649

Credit for Cattleand SheeP FatteninR 256.2 1,164 5lRQ 827 74.3 337 -

Project ManagementUnit

Civil Works 29.8 135 - - - _ - - 29.8 135Vehicles andEquipisent 64.9 295 - - - - - 64.9 295Staff 367.1 1,669 39.7 181 - - - 327.4 1,488

Operating Costs 166.0 756 58.1 264 - - - 107.9 492Subtotal 627.8 2,855 97.8 -4*4 - - - 510.0 2,410

Base Cost Estimate 263 12,060 249.0 1,132 181,9 827 92.4 419 2,129.7 9,682

Physical Contin-gencies 159.0 723 13.4 61 - - 1.9 9 143.7 653Expected PriceIncreases 453.6 2,062 45.5 207 31.9 145 18.9 86 357.3 1,624

Total Prolect Cost 3.265.6 16Jbi.6 i 307.9 1,400 2/ 31. A a72 113.2 13

Il Not rounded. Financing plan in teat ahows rounded figure of US$ 15 million.2/ Shown in text financing plan as US$ 1.514 million for consistency of text table.

B. By Year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total…-------------------------- …(CFAF'000) ------------- …-------------

Goveroment

Base Cost Estimate 40,985 48,461 51,186 54,291 54,112 249,035Physical Contingencies 2,626 2,789 2,689 2,660 2,642 13,406Expected Price Increases 1,439 4,920 8,674 13,156 17,310 45,499Total 45_050 56,170 62,549 70,107 74,064 307,940

CNCA

Base Cost Estimate 24,988 35,373 44,465 40,504 36,544 181,874Physical Contingencies - - - - - -Expected Price Inctreases 825 3,396 7,159 9,356 11,146 31,882Total 25,813 38,769 51,624 49,860 47,690 213,756

Beneficiaries

Base Cost Estimiate 7,251 14,065 21,708 24,492 24,901 92,417Physical Contingencies 303 327 362 714 177 1,883Expected Price Increases 258 1,408 3,602 5,965 7,649 18,882Total 7,812 15,800 25,672 31,171 32,727 113_182

IDA

Base Cost Estisiate 423,360 563,307 425.916 478,476 238,657 2,129,716Physical Contingencies 29,221 44,260 30,136 33,663 6,413 143,693Expected Price Increases 15,804 63,616 78,147 125,002 74,746 357,315Total 462,385 671_183 534,199 637,141 319,816 2,630,724

-42 -ANNEX 2Table 3

NIGER

LIVESTOCK PROJECT

IDA Disbursement Categories and Schedule

Base Cost plus Rounded forDisbursement Categories Physical Contingencies Disbursement Schedule

(CFAF million) (US$'000) (US$'000)

I. Civil Works 859 3,905 3,800II. Vehicles and Equipment 293 1,332 1,300III. Input Supplies 282 1,282 1,300IV. Credit 99 450 450V. Expatriate Staff and

Consultants 1/ 253 1,150 1,150VI. Local Staff 213 968 1,000VII. Operating Costs 274 1,246 1,200IX. Unallocated _351. 1,624 1,800

Total 2f6-3Q 11.959 12.000

1/ Of which US$ 80,000 for Category VIII, Refunding of Project Preparation Advance.

IDA Fiscal Year Quarterly Cumulative---------- (US$ million) ----------

FY 1980 lst Quarter 0.1 0.12nd Quarter 0.1 0.23rd Quarter 0.2 0.44th Quarter 0.2 0.6

FY 1981 lst Quarter 0.4 1.02nd Quarter 0.4 1.43rd Quarter 0.5 1.94th Quarter 0.5 2.4

FY 1982 Ist Quarter 0.8 3.22nd Quarter 0.8 4.03rd Quarter 0.8 4.84th Quarter 0.8 5.6

FY 1983 lst Quarter 0.8 6.42nd Quarter 0.8 7.23rd Quarter 0.8 8.04th Quarter 0.8 8.8

FY 1984 lst Quarter 0.7 9.52nd Quarter 0.7 10.23rd Quarter 0.7 10.94th Quarter 0.6 11.5

FY 1985 lst Quarter 0.2 11.72nd Quarter 0.2 11.93rd Quarter 0.1 12.0

- 43 - ANNEX 2Table 4

NIGER

LIVESTOCK PROJECT

Pastoral Center Beneficiaries Cash Flow

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6------------------------- (CFAF '000) --------------------------

Drugs

Drenches 208 342 538 735 740 757Deworming 119 346 828 830 830 831Coccidiosis 92 153 242 333 337 345Trypanocides 231 234 238 241 245 249External parasites 29 59 90 91 92 94Subtotal 679 1,134 1,936 2,230 2,244 2,276

Feed

Calf supplement 651 1,300 1,951 2,600 2,600 2,600

Mineralsupplement 1/ 1,236 1,824 2,412 3,648 3,648 3,648Vitamin supplement 131 197 262 346 394 394Subtotal 2,018 3,321 4,625 6,594 6,642 6,642

Distributionmargin 2/ 135 223 328 441 444 446

Well-digging 3/ 260 260 260 260 260 260

Total Cash Outflow 3,092 4,938 7,149 9,525 9,590 9,625

…------------------------ (CFAF million) ------------------------

Cash Inflow 4/

With project 5/ 183.6 192.0 203.4 216.9 226.5 235.2Without project 174.6 181.8 183.9 197.0 197.1 201.3Increment 9.0 10.2 19.5 19.9 29.4 33.9

Less: Outflow 3.1 4.9 7.1 9.5 9.6 9.6

Net IncrementalCash Flow 6/ 5.9 5.3 12.4 10.4 19.8 24.3

1/ In part a substitute for existing (and "without project") salt purchases.2/ 5% on drugs and feed payable to paraveterinary workers, themselves beneficiaries.3/ In kind or in cash.4/ Assumes no milk sales but that all animal offtake is sold.5/ Working Paper 3, Table 6A.6/ Does not adequately capture lags between expenditures and receipts within the year.

-44

ANNEX 2Table 5

NIGER

LIVESTOCK PROJECT

Breeding Loan Recipients Cash Flow 1!

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8---------------------------------- (CFAF '000) … ------ …------------------------

Inflow

Loan Proceedsfor Breeding Cows 30,000 - - - - - -for Immature Males 33,660 - - - - - - -

Sales Proceedsfrom Breeding Herd 2/ - 197 783 1,953 2,649 3,578 4,668 5,795from Immature Males: A 3/ - 23,095 11,547 17,321 14,434 15,866 - -

B - - 23,095 11,547 17,321 14,434 15,866 -

Total Inflow 63,660 23,292 35,425 30,821 34,404 33,878 20,534 5,795

Outflow

PurchasesCows 30,000 - - - - - - _Immature Males 4/ 33,660 16,830 25,245 21,038 23,124 - - -Inputs 5/ 158 269 383 537 543 544 546 548

Total Outflow 63,818 17,099 25,628 21,575 23,667 544 546 548

Net Cash Flow

Before Repayments (158) 6,193 9,797 9,246 10,737 33,334 19,988 5,247

In Current Prices 6/ (167) 6,961 11,668 11,668 14,366 47,301 30,062 8,364

Repayments 7/ - 3,183 6,366 6,366 9,549 28,647 9,549 -

After Repayments (167) 3,778 5,302 5,302 4,817 18,654 20,513 8,364

In Constant Prices 8/ (167) 3,010 3,431 2,880 1,188 4,687 10,439 5,247

Capital Value of BreedingHerd 8/ 30,000 60,084

1/ Per 100 loans or 500 breeding cows and 1,000 immature males.2/ Details at Working Paper 2, Table 4.3/ Sales at 260 kg after 18 months on average, 5% mortality; line A: sales after 12 months; line B: sales after 24

months.4/ Purchases at 180 kg at two years; unit cost CFAF 187 per kg and unchanged at time of sale; assumes that all immature

males sold off are replaced through year 5, i.e., 500 head in year 2, 750 in year 3, 613 in year 4 and 687 in year 5.5/ Prorata with cattle inputs in pastoral centers: Working Paper 3, Table 6B.6/ Inflation at 6% per year.7/ Year 2: 5%; Years 3 and 4: 10%; Year 5: 15%; Year 6: 45%; Year 7: 15%.8/ 1979 constant prices.

45 ANNEX 2Table 6

NIGER

LIVESTOCK PROJECT

Backgrounding and Pattening Loan Recipients Returns

Backgrounding Cattle Fattening Sheep Fattening

Month O Month 18 Month 0 Month 6 Month 0 Month 12---- (ÇFAF/head) -- (CFAF/head)--- ----- (CFAF) ----

Inflow Inflow Inflow

Loan Proceeds 1/ 26,928 - Loan Proceeds 1/ 46,750 - Loan Proceeds 1/ 22,000 -Sale 2/ - 46,190 Sale 2/ - 69,800 Sale - 45,000

Outflow Outflow Outflow

Purchase 3/ 33,660 - Purchase 3/ 46,750 - Purchase 3/ 22,000 -Drugs and Buying expenses 1,000 - Buying expenses 1,500 -Supplements 1,200 - Drugs and Drugs andLoan Repayment 4/ - 31,506 Supplements 1,100 - Supplements 750 -

Cotton seed 4/ 2,240 - Bran 4/ 10,800 -Bran 5/ 4,200 - Loan Repayment 5/ - 24,420Legume hay 6/ 3,150 -Loan Repayment 7/ - 49,320

Net Cash Flow (7,932) 14,684 Net Cash Flow (11,690) 20,480 8/ Net Cash Flow (13,050) 20,580 6/Net Revenue 6,752 Net Revenue 8,790 Net Revenue 7,530Return on initial Return on initial Return on initialoutlay 85% outlay 75% outlay 58%

Annual return 49% Annual return 206% Annual return 58%

1/ 80% of purchase price. 1/ 100% of purchase price. 1/ 100% of purchase price of four2/ 260 kg, CFAF 187/kg, 5% mortality. 2/ 334 kg, CFAF 209/kg (600 grams young sheep.3/ 180 kg, CFAF 187/kg. per day liveweight gain over 2/ 45 kg/head, CFAF 250/kg.J 11% per year, 18 months. 140 days). 3/ 25 kg/head, CFAF 220/kg.

3/ 250 kg, CFAF 187/kg. 4/ 360 kg, CFAI 30/kg.4/ 140 kg, CFAF 16/kg. 5/ 11%, 12 months.5/ 140 kg, CFAF 30/kg. 6/ Excluding 6% mortality risk, but6/ 210 kg, CFAF 15/kg, assuming sickly animals are slaughtered

1.5 kg/day bought-in, remainder prior to death and most of thebeing farm by-products. capital is recovered.

7/ 11%, 6 months.8/ Excluding 2% mortality risk, but

sickly animals are slaughteredprior to death and most of thecapital is recovered.

NIGER

LIVESTOCK PROJECT

Government Cash Flow 1/

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year 19 Year 20

--------------------------------------------(CFAF Million)-----------------------------------------------------------------------

A. Inflow

IDA Disbursements B 132 396 704 704 594 110 - - - - - -

Pastoraliats:Drugs and Feed Supplements 3/ 31 43 63 10° 175 274 284 287 291 294 306 310 311Pastoral Well Construction

and Maintenance / 2 2 2 5 - - - - - - - - -

Additional Livestock RevenuesExport Taxes / 1 1 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 2

Other Revenues 6/ - 3 6 9 12 14 15 17 18 19 17 17 68Total Inflow 166 445 777 831 786 403 3O4 309 314 318 327 329 381

B. Outflow

Project Financial Costa 7/ 547 782 674 788 474Less: Credit Schemes 33 61 96 110 147Plus: Non-incremental Drugs a

and Feed Supplements - 43 63 lo9 175Net project cost 8/ 514 764 641 787 502 433 466 455 490 491 426 381 379

IDA Debt Service 1 4 9 15 19 20 20 20 20 20 45 44 44Total Outflow 515 768 650 802 521 453 486 475 510 511 471 425 423

C. Surplus (Deficit)

Annual (349) (323) 127 29 265 (50) (182) (166) (196) (193) (144) (96) (42)

Cumulative (349) (672) (545) (516) (251) (301) (483) (649) (845) (1,038) (1,732) (2,083) (2,125)

1/ Current prices through Year 5 asd constant prices thereafter. Excluding credit schemes inputs, financed separately or negligible, and revolving fund operations, foodsupply activity, pastoral centers (except initial funding thereof), because they cancelled out each year.

2/ See Annex 2, Table 3.3/ Beginning Year 6, includes full costs of ail animal health inputs.Z/ 5% contribution to both construction and maintenance costs (the latter being 3% of the former each year. beginnine sixth vpar aftsr r.-nstruction date).

5j CFAF 2,000/cattle, 600isheep, Overall estimated at CFAF 60/TAU./ Patents, export licences, butcher's income tax, etc... Conservatively estimated at .005% of additionnal offtake value (Year 1, 5, 10, 15, 20) and prorated in-between D

Figure for Year 20 includer netting out of initial furndi,.g f rcvolving fund operations, food supply, pastoral centers, including respective price contingencies, 0 zzdevelopment period.

7/ See Annex 2, Table 1.Y/ Year 6 and thereafter: based on economic costs, updated to PY5 prices, excluding application of standard conversion factor and including full costs of vehicles, ru

cropping zone, scaled down however in line with reduced activity rate of such vehicles (Year 6-10: 50%; Year 11-15: 25%; Year 16-20: 0%).

ANNEX 3- 47 - Page 1

NIGER

LIVESTOCK PROJECT

Related Documents and Data Available in the Project File

A. Selected Reports and Studies Relating to the Project

A.1 Livestock Development Project in Maradi and Zinder Provinces,preparation report by Messrs. Levif, Tacher and Marsan, July1977 (in French);

A.2 Livestock Development in Diffa Province, second preparationreport by senior Livestock Department staff, March 1978(in French);

A.3 Report on the Technical Feasibility of the Pastoral Unit Conceptin Niger, study financed by PPF in August-September 1978, byMessrs. Dulieu and Clanet (main authors), December 1978 (inFrench).

B. Working Papers

B.1 Social AnalysisB.2 Animal Health, Productivity, Credit and Marketing (in French)B.3 Herd Models (in French)B.4 Water Resources and Use (in French)B.5 Project CostsB.6 Economic Analysis

NIGERLIVESTOCK PROJECT

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE

Year 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

ACTIV lIES Project Year 3 Project Yea 1 Project Year 2 ;5

Qularters 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4~~~~~~~~Rains Rains 'eis - Rains' Ris Ris

Etîhonovetsttin,aey Invuentory Mli 'fipee ii liimlE// //77 ,'Drugs mal Feed Supplernent SupPly I // / ///_ //// //7 /// ICool lng Equiprnent / / / / /7 _ / /7/7 /7/i /7/7Nevv Srnall stock Vaccinations 5 I _ 7/Identification of Pastoral Utnits , _ // //// | _ _ // 7/7/ _/77Constitution of Associations of Pastoralistsu //7777 //~//~Cotstnictioti of Stock Watering Points /// //// '/7/ //// _ 77/ //Construction of Pastoral Centers 77/ 777/ /// /7/_ ///Construction of Pastoral Vetterinary Posts / // /777/ 7// /7/7 /7/C'edft7// //7 //,'/ /7/7 77// 7//

Breeding m/ol ,,,, 7 _ ",, _,,,

Backgrounding /// //7/ _ / // /7///Construction of Veterinarv Posts and Yards . ' /__ / / / _/// /7/C or) t ruc i n i a rk e s/7/7Z/1 /7//__ ///l/// /7|7/ /7/ I 1/' /7/,/Cotistruction, of Markets 77/// //77//Construction of Abattoirs /7/ // /77/ /i/ /,/ /RoiabulllaftlOn of Slaughter Slabs /'/ /7/ // / / ,/// Constluction of Stock Routes """ """" _ _77/ " '

St dt f / / / _(' ~~~~~~~~7/' '7 _/7/ |_,// /7/ /7/7 7_/7'/,

Cattre Fatsen,iUt // /77/ //,' _ /77 _ /7

SIheep Fatteninls mm/'fîaîninijin Paraveterirury Works~7 //,/ ////

irdlrsBllln Associaiions of Pastoralists , ",/s// /7 ",/, // /71/

Staff "' _' 1,1/_ 1/, /7'I /77 7/,liin i soittu fPastoral ists 7 7','/ 7'Ptaffriit 7/ -, - _ '/_ ,'/ ~ ~/ / /1' | - 7,- 7/7// - -7-'7

Training ofi Padannedical Workerst / ', /7, //

Audfit 7 7/ 7/7/ 7/8

Woulid Bank -'19078

NIGERLIVESTOCK PROJECT

ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT

Dlr,r,r.f tontkck Offtcnt| M oinhn o Rcii rl ev bpment f Actroitie.~

EhtvofFnnc intvolPnnn

P, TeCin-e , F I r f n

Forestiv ~ ~ erriar Inhed ionsn in; |Llttnck VOeleutOmnt _ _ _-d Pen AsoiaIn et uirDemn T rreprm (e A _ O l

L IncE~~~~~~Po tr echi Prom os.e et P sortiot e' ndV ccilt c rn;eni n Patrl CUntrA dit *Fofte_ _up

_Rralth |~~~3ne frPrc0nrvea Pasok toiral C! or Animl iftudrodry Crdi f"or ivi i Cnwcand iI Adlr |

_OPVN Dl il toc O{i-e

_CNCAr w

_IUNCCE_ _ÙFEDES

C)thn ProvinCIal Offi.- _

(3Rhlnr Pr$ctsivCarn Pet tn,rr Adlin icns Ad, uAtBnde

_Vsocinadnn C mp igne _ Sreen Fefrncin doic As tionaof BeePqeUurctinn

_M.rke StIistie, _Tra.l" P.,.Mning Non. Veiti Po Advisr SPalo.lis _M Lieoc

_Cm11 F.t-irnig AdviceU Vetaind ar rkers nn FmStifg Stfck Wtag

_Work O... Ad.ir _SeNc .sIo A#pciMi.., _Fffecfiv ne#ot Pobssuc.ekion of

_Pou@rr Promtin o P.t,.iRnrdc B~vond Vciio gpgn _P.n".4a C.n.r AuitF11lAU

_Go-t m'prowemen PastoraE C t.s _A.i.. HucùandrV _Cr tdit f ad

_Oh I,f Prg- 7- j« J_CMtefal ln Advice2j A"..c I. Ail Breeding rmd

_Sh.m FtIe.igAd-ieAsciDno B.ckqro...ding

Pmt, ndM.,kol- Drpn nl- St.if lo

Crodit

Il Zindl r Pîcaicce2J Mai Proe ince

Li cf A.thorôWv

31 P.irtîlyv M)Zi. Preoilce 3M Proi«t iEDFI Ibl R<gi cf Annl - raet r Lfd

Maoatn;rnert Prfet IUSAID) io o-I cf Maradi Pro,vinc- cf Il ........... f. r nVnf Shre in Projecl Fioeocing

f3,11. PFonnen Drvelontlrhof Proiecr ICIDI4 -_ _ _ODA W,rhdroe Appficicrons Wrnbd Aok - 190377

LBRD 13722-E'°( à.rîi 8 éo 120 14 1*° JULY 1978

! ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ !NG E Ri

go / ( ! LIVESTOCK PROJECT

,": - ` ̀ s>"- -- \` ~~~~A G A D E Z , I 1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ LEGAL PASTOIRAL ZONE

, 1 , - v 00 \ 0 - 0,.-, .; ttÂCADEZ / | ;_ ) + Md d3h fD P-, ' ~~~~~~~~~AGADEZ r- jJdtrie t3IctoeneetfPfapoic

Jf -. N~~~~~~~~~~~~IEA SMALLABATTOIRS

, |TOEAL N LOCATIONS TO BE DETERMINED IN THE PASTORAL ZONE

. ,. : 4 `,\ 8,a / n O E 1 O 1E 0 / * M INMARK~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~MIN ARETce o-o mv oco ~~~~~~~~~SECONDARY MAR KETS

KILORETERS // ~~~~~~~~STOCK ROUTES

- TARRED ROADS

D I F F A ~~~~~~~~~~----LATERITERAS

+ AIRPORTS® PROVINCIAL CAPITALE

\ C H A D I CAPITALCI OTHER TOWNS

20'ISOHYIETS

~- RIVERS

PROVINCIAL BOUNSARIES

k ek ~~~~~~~INTERNATIONAL BUDPE

i*S,vfve ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~GRIA Medarvjcfe seBara' et OR So-e Reoven N V \e-......a..v, MAURITANIA j \ALSE~~~~~~MARITANI

M M~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~IN A L I RASOJ

?Lo- ruP3ERlr ' rPERGIINEA f VOLTA ' o-

b.rmdPb=beenfrepmdbVthrh dddaSsœefffeze#Z}e: dVf reheconvenwanse \ K _ < 7> i 9 & \ tNvjameoe-y" t ivNNGERRIA /obv>,Of Imdr=ononhio> anorSmfDlf f@irhed<°ffEfdeusfdddu )7 |\C E »st I A sdOAST .40N0401 / et > A

ace mbmceofsuchbounAms / S° iKeno o 4 112° 1~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~~ ~~~~40!I OfCeAff e 4 t *<AE