World alliance presentation-22 Mar 11

+MEGA-TRENDS IMPACTING OUR GLOBAL YMCA MOVEMENT

KEN COLLOTON & OLIVER LOKE

2011-2050

+POPULATION, INCOME & URBANISATION

YOUTH & WOMEN

ECONOMIC GROWTH & IMMIGRATION

ENVIRONMENT

RELIGIONS

ECONOMIC DEMOCRACY

GLOBAL MOVEMENT FUNDING

GLOBAL ORGANIZATIONAL GOVERNANACE

GLOBAL SHOCKS

7

+C

POPULATION,INCOME &URBANISATION

I.

+ I. MEGA TRENDS: POPULATION CHANGES, INCOME LEVELS, AGING & URBANIZATION

Population:Population:

Today: 6.83 billion. By 2050: Stabilize to 9.15 billion

21st century impact will be less on the number of population versus:

How it is comprised and distributed Where it is declining and growing Relative age of countries

Europe, USA and Canada comprise 17% in 2003, w/b 12% in 2050 (less than it was in 1700)

+ I. MEGA TRENDS: POPULATION CHANGES, INCOME LEVELS, AGING & URBANIZATION

Mexico City

Indian Consumers

+Aging:

By 2050: 30% of Americans, Canadians, Chinese, Europeans, will be over 60 y/o

- 40% of Japanese and Koreans

Note: Productivity declines as aging increases: Consumerism declines as aging increases, less

need for domestic production Health care and pension will take more GDP

I. MEGA TRENDS: POPULATION CHANGES, INCOME LEVELS, AGING & URBANIZATION

World’s Oldest married couple at 85 years of marriage

Japanese Couple

+Urbanization:Urbanization:

In 1950, less than 30 % of world’s population lived in urban areas. 2010= 50%; 2050= 70%

Lower income countries in Asia and Africa are urbanizing especially rapidly as agriculture becomes less labor intensive and employment shifts to industrial and service sectors:

China urbanizes 40% today to 73% in 2050

India urbanizes 30% today to 55% in 2050

Sub-Sahara Africa will double from 35% urbanized today to 67% in 2050

(USA was 65 % urbanized in 1950 with PCI = $13,000 vs. today’s world average of $2,500)


New York

Mazdar City, Abu Dhabi UAE

+Urbanization:Urbanization:

Continued urbanization in our developing countries could look much as it did in 19th century Europe and USA including cyclical employment, inadequate policing, limited sanitation, and education- much like the times that George Williams founded our YMCA in London.

Urban Centers include Cairo, Lagos, Calcutta, Manila, Karachi, Shanghai, Jakarta, New Delhi, Mumbai, Mexico City.


ShanghaiLagos

Delhi

+

YOUTH & WOMEN

II.

+ II. YOUTH & WOMEN CONSTITUENTS

Youth:Youth:

Fastest growing developing nations are most youthful . Africa, Latin America, Middle East, and SE Asia

9 out of 10 children under age 15 live in developing countries

70% of the world’s growth to 2050 will occur in 24 countries classified as low or lower middle income (per capita income of $3,855).

The world’s young are becoming concentrated in those countries least prepared to educate and employ them.

Africa has the fastest growing and most youthful population in the world : 60% is below age 25; 36 % of working age population:

60% unemployed (vs. 44% world average) = labor demand deficiencies

Youth are employed in agriculture = 65% of total employment

+Women Rights:

Staggering costs related to gender injustice, oppression, discrimination, and female marginalization.

Costs are measured in lost IQ and GDP and economic potential; poverty; human suffering; community instability and violence.

Providing women education results in better nutrition, health care and education to their families.

II. YOUTH & WOMEN CONSTITUENTS

+Women Rights:Women Rights:

Major organizations target resources toward women empowerment including World Bank, Gates Foundation, CARE. Most micro-finance organizations and programs focus on women because women use their success to further invest in family health and education. International institutions like YMCA’s and Organization of American States assist to develop:

greater legal equality enlarged political representation and voice. Usually less

corruption. better social services, education, and leadership training economic means and freedom


Melinda Gates

Dilma Vana Rousseff, First Women President of Brazil

Grameen Bank, Bangladesh


Additional corporate investments are supporting global women practices to ensure greater labor force participation, higher productivity, higher returns on investment including:

Nike Exxon Mobil ($20 million in Women’s Economic Opportunity

Initiatives) Goldman Sachs $100 million in business education in India and

Nigeria

A disadvantage to globalization of trade and communication has, tragically, opened up new demand and channels for sex trade and exploitation.



Some outstanding examples of women empowerment are evident : China has unleashed the productive capacity of women. The

Chinese economic miracle is in part due to the participation of educated women.

Mao Zedong noted “women hold up half the sky”

Japan, South Korea and Taiwan illustrate that significant investments in education can change attitudes toward women in a short period of time.

After the 1994 genocide events in Rwanda, the population remained at 70% women. Today, 30% parliamentary seats are women, plus many high level government positions

Studies show that increased women participation results in less corruption


+ECONOMIC GROWTH & IMMIGRATION

III.Commerce along Shiekh Zayed Road, Dubai, UAE

+ Developing nations have few ways of providing adequate employment to

their young, fast growing populations.

Labor forces/ productivity are declining in developed countries such as Germany, Japan, Russia, Austria, CR, Demark, Greece, and Italy

Young workers in developing nations are increasingly attracted to the labor markets of our aging developed Europe, North America and NE Asia. Youthful immigrants from South and Central America, North Africa and SE Asia will continue to be drawn to entry level jobs in more developed nations.

Less wealthy Muslim youth will continue to immigrate- especially from North Africa and the Middle East to Europe.

III. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND IMMIGRATION TRENDS

+

Healthy immigration is possible for workers to the developed world and capital repatriation to the developing nations to support health and education advancements.

Newly industrialized nations (driver of economic expansion): Brazil, China (until 2030), India, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, Iran, Thailand, Vietnam.

Aging industrialized nations: North America, Europe, Asia Pacific Rim (Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. China by 2030 due to one child policy.)

III. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND IMMIGRATION TRENDS

+

ENVIRONMENT

IV.

Milford Sound, New Zealand

+ IV. ENVIRONMENT

One degree of Celsius warming since the pre-industrial age is causing unforeseen climate changes including glacier met and coral reef degradation. The G-8 proposes a limit to warming to two degrees by 2050.

Climate change will be a multiplier of poverty as changing weather induces more drought, flooding, erosion and soil degradation. Tropical diseases can spread through more temperate climates.

CNA Corporation (US Pentagon) concludes that climate change will:

Create increased natural and humanitarian disasters Weaken governments and foster internal conflicts and extremism Divert economic development funds to climate adoption/survival

measures (seawalls, irrigation, etc). Increased GDP will go to environmental impacts.

+ Must reduce emissions of light-absorbing carbon

particles (“black carbon”) and ground level ozones, including coal and charcoal, crop waste, etc.

Prevent deforestation

Technology is available, however, it is cost-prohibitive and lacks incentive and priority

Environment improvements must carefully consider cultures and customs

All organizations, including the global YMCA, should both be aware of their carbon footprint and develop strategies to reduce CO2.

IV. ENVIRONMENT

Australian Floods

Moscow Wildfires

Hong Kong Smog

+ Programs including

recycling, planting, use of renewable energy, and education programs should be adopted as best practices

Policies considering environmental responses and fund collection, allocation, management and disbursement (as well as accountability standards) must be developed

IV. ENVIRONMENT Tree planting Week, UK

World’s Largest Offshore Wind farm, Denmark

German Solar power

+

RELIGIONSV.

Muslims gathering for prayer in Mecca, Saudi Arabia

+ V. RELIGIONS: ISLAM

Of the 48 fastest growing countries today, 28 are majority Muslim.

Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Turkey have populations growing by 475 million in next 30 years. Compared to 44 million population in top 6 developed nations.

1. Indonesia 202 Million

2. Pakistan 174 Million

3. India 160 Million4. Bangladesh 145

Million5. Egypt 78 Million6. Nigeria 78 Million7. Iran 73

Million8. Turkey 73 Million

Friday Prayers inIndonesia

+ Islam serves as the fastest

growing religion worldwide, though Christianity still represent the largest worldwide

Sharp increase in Islamic religion, with education effects coming thereafter in 30 years.

Emergence of a new affluent, modern & moderate Islamic Middle Class in emergent economies like UAE, Eygpt, Qatar, Bahrain, Turkey, Indonesia, Malaysia

V. RELIGIONS: ISLAM

Modern Emirati

Muslims praying in Nigeria during clashes among Christians and Muslims

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

+ The new global revival in the 10/40

window:

China, India, South Korea, Nigeria, Eastern Europe Philippines, Brazil, Argentina, Russia etc.

East to West re-evangelization

New Charismatic movements in evangelical circles

V. RELIGIONS: CHRISTIANITY

Yoido Full Gospel Assembly, South Korea: World’s largest church with weekly attendance of 800,000 worshippers

1. USA 243 million

2. Brazil 174 million3. Mexico 105 million4. Russia 99 million5. Philippines 90

million6. Nigeria 76 million7. China 66 million8. Congo 63 million

+

ECONOMIC DEMOCRACY

VI.

Singapore, a state-led developmental democracy

+ VI. ATTRIBUTES FOR ECONOMIC DEMOCRACY

Sustained macro-economic stability (IMF Rankings) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Equitable sharing of benefits (UN Human Development Index http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/)

Secure property rights

Equal opportunities (UN Gender Development Index)

Economic and political competition

Institutional reforms of judiciaries, regulatory bodies, civil service systems

Transparency. (International Perception Corruption Index). http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2009

Free (independent and fair) press

+

GLOBAL SHOCKS

VIIRecord Onion Prices in India this February

+ VII. GLOBAL SHOCKS

Commodity and food prices

- Competing supply chain issues and increasing erratic weather patterns

Energy politics

- Poor scalability of mobile energy sources and still huge reliance on oil, with worsening shortages

Calamities and climate change

- Growth in worldwide disasters (260,000 in 2010)

Political tipping points

- Arab revolution in 2011

FACT:In 2010, more people were killed in worldwide disasters were more than terrorism attacks in the past 40 years combined.Source: MSNBC

FACT:The UN Food Price index reached its record high in January 2011. It was the highest reading in history

Source: FAO, UNITED NATIONS

Deepwater horizon oil Spill

Coffee Beans

+ Arab Revolution of 2011

1. Youth challenges: Unemployment & demography2. Technology and the social revolution 3. Political Challenges

Eygpt

Bahrain

Tunisia

Libya

Iran

+

http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2011/02/20/gps.fareed.take.02.20.cnn

+

GLOBAL MOVEMENT FUNDING

+ VII. GLOBAL MOVEMENT FUNDING OPPORTUNITIES

International Finance Facility for Immunization (UK) $1.6 billion

RED Brands initiative: American Express, Apple, Converse, GAP, Hallmark. (USA $130 million)

UNITAID: Airline tickets in 13 countries (Brazil, Chile, France, S. Korea, Norway, UK, African Nations)

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Clinton HIV/AIDS initiative

+

GLOBAL ORGANISATIONAL GOVERNANCE

+ VIII. GLOBAL ORGANIZATIONAL GOVERNANCE

We must re-think governance structures of global organizations, including G-8 (G-20), NATO (Cold War), and EU may require expansion.

International institutions will not retain legitimacy if they exclude the world’s fastest growing and economically dynamic countries

New realities exist around mega trends of population, income, aging, and urbanization and immigration

Improved leadership models are required to advance cause-driven global movements including:

Empower local and national resources Add value to the global movement through knowledge

management, brand recognition, and voice Increase and diversify revenue streams by facilitating

collaborative funding and philanthropy

+

Strategically include and empower our youth, our women and our developing nations.

Collaborate with internal/movement and external resources to address contemporary issues. Build a nimble organization with capacity to govern our Christian behaviors, actions and outcomes in relation to these global trends of population, aging, urbanization and others.

Provide leadership and inspiration for our global movement mission, strengths, and expertise such as:

GOP; healthy lifestyles; global citizenship; education/skills building for employment and livelihood; youth, women, family, community advocacy; technology; Philanthropy, environment, etc.

VIII. GLOBAL ORGANIZATIONAL GOVERNANCE

+And finally ... aspire to be one of Best International

Human Services Organization that we can be …

In recognition of our organization’s pioneering humanitarian work on several continents,

National boundaries and political circumstances or sympathies must have no influence on who is to receive humanitarian help.Each fearless and self-sacrificing helper shows each victim a human face, stands for respect for that person’s dignity, and is a source of hope for peace and reconciliation.

Nobel Peace Prize, 1999Doctors Without Borders

+

Why Not YMCA?

God Bless

World alliance presentation-22 Mar 11

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