World After Oil Depletion
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Transcript of World After Oil Depletion
World After Oil DepletionFacts, Consequences and Alternatives
Presenters: Pranati, Arunava, Arun
The Oil AgeAccelerated growth in 20th century due to discovery and use of oil
Rise of US as a superpower attributed to plentiful of oil resources
About 90% of vehicular fuel comes from petroleum resources
Oil DivideThe difference
between oil rich countries and those with deficiency of oil resources
Oil rich countries enjoy high economic prosperity (eg Middle East, US, Canada)
World GDP and Oil Production growthGDP almost follows the same trend as
Oil production growth (factor of 2.5)
Hubbert Peak TheoryPredict that the production curves of non-
renewing resources approximate a bell curve- rises rapidly, to reach a peak and then declines
Makes predictions based on prior discovery rates and anticipated production rates
When peak of production is passed, production rates enter an irreversible decline
Production peak in the USProduction
peaked in the 1970s and went on a decline
Recent advances in extraction technologies has led to increases
Hubbert Peak Curves of non-OPEC countries
Statistics about oil usageEstimated 1.3 trillion barrels of
proven oil reserve left in the world's major fields
At present rates of consumption (89 million barrels/day)- sufficient to last 40 years.
By 2040, production levels may be down to 15 million barrels per day – around 20% of what we currently consume.
Out of largest 21 fields, 9 are in decline
Highest proved oil reserves are in Venezuela Saudi Arabia, Canada and Iran
Inaccuracies of DataMany oil producing nations
manipulate oil reserves data for political reasons
Oil companies want to increase their net worth, producer countries want to increase their independent stature and consumer countries want to foster a sense of security
New Discoveries of Oil
“It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil. Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive. ”
— Lord Ron Oxburgh, a former chairman of Shell, October 2008
The peak of world oilfield discoveries occurred in 1965 at around 55 billion barrels/year
Ever since, the rate of new oil field discovery has remained constant at 10-15 billion barrels/year
Consequences of oil depletionRise in food pricesRecessionDecline in industrial growth, GDPGreater competition and
animosity between nations
Global Economic CatastropheRecession due to
decrease in Industrial production- lower number of jobs
Developed countries are already facing a stagnation of GDP growth rate
Rising Food PricesHigher
equipment fuel cost drives costs higher
Higher transportation costs increase retail costs
Escalation of Wars
Growing competition and animosity among nations for oil
Nations will launch increasing number wars against each other for the conquest of remaining oil resources
Wars/ Economic Turmoil related to Oil
Chaco War Oil embargoes of 1970 (coincided with US Peak oil)Gulf WarIraq WarSudan and South Sudan war
Mitigation of Peak OilNeed to find alternatives at least 10-
20 years before the calculated peak, and phase out the use of petroleum.
Energy conservation, fuel substitution and the use of unconventional oil
Iceland was the first country to suggest transitioning to 100% renewable energy in 1998
Immediate solution to global crisis: Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR)
Crude oil inventories held by a country to safeguard the economy and national security in the face of a global oil crisis
US holds approx 4 billion barrels as strategic reserves
Indian strategic oil reserves will last just for 2 weeks – Rs1150 crore plan announced in Aug 2015 to build strategic reserves
Recent interest - Unconventional OilHeavy Oil, Tar Sands and Oil Shales
Limitations include difficulty and expense of extraction and extremely polluting
Alternative energyNuclear energy
(although limitations of fuel availability and contamination)
China preparing for post oil era by building pebble bed reactors which uses high temperature gas to crack steam to produce hydrogen
Emphasis on renewable energy like wind/ solar/ tidal energy
Solar powered Aircraft- Impulse 2 (2014)
Experimental stage- Proof of Concept for the future?
Proposed Hydrogen economyHydrogen when
burned with Oxygen is a zero-emission fuel
Used for producing Ammonia for fertilizers (instead of chemical fertilisers) and fuel cells in vehicles
Transition to a Hydrogen Economy – Currently in R&D phase
Nov 15, 2015: Toyota launches first hydrogen fuel cell car
BiofuelsEthanol and biodiesel can be produced
from corn, sugar and the like
Automobile companies producing “flexfuel” vehicles to be compatible with biofuel (eg GM)
Food vs Fuel debateDilemma regarding diverting
farmland/ crops to biofuels production- decreasing Food supply and increasing food prices